GLY2030: Hazards
of the Earth’s
Surface
Dr. Juster
CHE-113B
Plan for today
► What is course about?
► How does course work?
► Risks and hazards
Earthquakes
2008 Sichuan
earthquake, China
Earthquakes
2008 Sichuan
earthquake, China
Volcanic Eruptions
2008 Galeras
eruption, Colombia
Volcanic Eruptions
2008 Galeras
eruption, Colombia
Volcanic Eruptions
2008 Kilauea volcano
eruption, Hawaii
Coastal Hazards: Erosion
Tropical Storm Fay
Coastal Hazards: Flooding
2008 Typhoon Nargis, Myanmar
Global climate change
Arctic Ocean, 2008
Reuters
Meeting Times
►Lecture T, Th 9:30-10:20
►Recitation 50 minutes, one of
four sections, with TA
F.A.Q.
What the heck is
recitation?
F.A.Q.
What if I need help?
►See your TA
►See me (office hours)
►Use discussion forum to ask
general questions
►Email
Email is good!
►juster@mail.usf.edu
►Subject:GLY2030
►Sign your name!
Email is good!
►juster@mail.usf.edu
►Subject: GLY2030
►Sign your name!
►i hav 2 give this 2 u
F.A.Q.
How do I use the web
page? Is it important?
Rules
Class Courtesy:
Attendance
Class Courtesy
Respect Speaker
GLY2030: Hazards
of the Earth’s
Surface
Random Events
Hazard
vs.
Risk
Hazard = Source of
Potential Damage
Example:
Earthquake hazards
Lava Flows
Pyroclastic
Flows
Tsunami
Gases
Earthquakes
Lahars Ash falls
Risk = Quantitative
likelihood that a person
or population will be
harmed by a hazard
Risk often expressed as
Probability (P)
P = 0 no chance
P = 1 sure thing
0
Probability it will snow = P(snow) = 0.10
“There’s a 10% chance of snow”
“There’s a 1 in 10 chance it will snow”
Probability of natural hazards always
referenced to time window:
“Probability of a landslide
in a given year”
Recurrence Interval = RI
RI = 1/P
P = 1/RI
Example:
P(flood in a given year) = 0.10
RI = 1/0.10 = 10 years
Example:
RI for hurricane is 25 years
P(hurricane in a given year)
= 1/25 = 0.04
Mt. Rainier
Mt. Rainier
P = 0.0013 in any year
RI = 750 years
Risk = Hazard × Vulnerability
Risk = P(hazard) ×
P(damage from hazard)
Physical
Characteristics Demographics
of Hazard
Risk = Hazard × Vulnerability
Risk = P(hazard) ×
P(damage from hazard)
Example: Risk of dying from lava flow =
P(volcano erupting lava flow) ×
P(person dying from lava flow)
“Risks associated
with Hazards of the
Earth’s Surface”