PRESIDENTIAL OVERVIEW

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					                  PRESIDENTIAL OVERVIEW

YEAR       # VOTES        %        VOTES   # STATES
2000
BUSH       50,455,156     47.9     271     30
GORE       50,992,335     48.4     266     21
NADER      2,882,738      2.7      1       0
OTHER      1,066,398      1.0      0       0
TOTAL      105,396,627

1996
CLINTON    47,402,357     49.2     379     32
DOLE       39,198,755     40.7     159     19
PEROT      8,085,402      8.4      0       0
OTHER      1,591,358      1.7      0       0
TOTAL      96,277,872

1992
CLINTON    44,909,326     43.0%    370     33
BUSH       39,103,882     37.4%    168     18
PEROT      19,741,657     18.9%    0       0
OTHER      670,149        0.7%     0       0
TOTAL      104,425,014
1988
BUSH       48,886,097     53.4%    426     40
DUKAKIS    41,809,074     45.6%    111     11
OTHER      899,638        1.0%     1       0
TOTAL      91,594,809
1984
REAGAN     54,455,075     58.8%    525     49
MONDALE    37,577,185     40.6%    13      2
OTHER      620,582        0%       0       0
TOTAL      92,652,842
1980
REAGAN     43,904,153     50.7%    489     44
CARTER     35,483,883     41.0%    49      7
ANDERSON   5,720,060      6.6%     0       0
TOTAL      86,515,221
1976
FORD       39,147,793     48.0%    240     27
CARTER     40,830,763     50.1%    297     24
OTHER      1,577,333      1.9%     1       0
TOTAL      81,555,889
1972
NIXON      47,169,911     60.7%    520     49
McGOVERN   29,170,383     37.5%    17      2
OTHER      1,378,260      1.7%     1       0
TOTAL      77,718,554

1968
NIXON      31,785,480     43.4%    301     32
HUMPHREY    31,275,166   42.7%   191   14
WALLACE     9,906,473    13.5%   46    5
TOTAL       73,211,875

1964
GOLDWATER   27,178,188   38.5%   52    6
JOHNSON     43,129,566   61.1%   486   45
OTHER       336,838      0.5%    0     0
TOTAL       70,644,592

1960
NIXON       34,108,157   49.5%   219   26
KENNEDY     34,226,731   49.7%   303   22
OTHER       503,331      0.7%    15    2
TOTAL       68,838,219
                        ELECTORAL COLLEGE
                         TOTAL TO WIN: 270


State           Votes               Montana           3
Alabama             9               Nebraska          5
Alaska              3               Nevada            5
Arizona           10                New Hampshire     4
Arkansas            6               New Jersey       15
California         55               New Mexico        5
Colorado            9               New York         31
Connecticut         7               North Carolina   15
Delaware            3               North Dakota      3
DC                  3               Ohio             20
Florida           27                Oklahoma          7
Georgia           15                Oregon            7
Hawaii              4               Pennsylvania     21
Idaho               4               Rhode Island      4
Illinois          21                South Carolina    8
Indiana           11                South Dakota      3
Iowa                7               Tennessee        11
Kansas              6               Texas            34
Kentucky            8               Utah              5
Louisiana           9               Vermont           3
Maine               4               Virginia         13
Maryland          10                Washington       11
Massachusetts     12                West Virginia     5
Michigan          17                Wisconsin        10
Minnesota         10                Wyoming           3
Mississippi         6
Missouri           11               Total            538
                                       ALABAMA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 9
Polls Close: 8pm EST
Voting Age Population: 3,393,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: 2,411,000 as of November 2002. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   1,666,272      941,173 56.5%          692,611 41.6           32,488^ 1.9%
1996   1,534,349      769,044 50.1%          662,165 43.2%          103,140## 6.7%
1992   1,688,060      804,283 47.6%          690,080 40.9%          193,697# 11.4%
1988   1,378,476      815,576 59.2%          549,506 39.9%          13,394 1%
1984   1,441,713      872,849 60.5%          551,899 38.3%          16,965 1.2%
1980   1,341,929      654,192 48.8%          636,730 47.4%          51,007* 3.8%
1976   1,182,850      504,070 42.6%          659,170 55.7%          19,610 1.7%
1972   1,006,111      728,701 72.4%          256,923 25.5%          20,487 2.1%
1968   1,049,922      146,923 14.0%          196,579 18.7%          706,420** 67.3%
1964   689,818        479,085 69.5%          --     --              210,73330.5%
1960   570,225        237,981 41.7%          324,050 56.8%          8,194 1.5%

^ Nader 18,323 1%; ##Perot 92,149 6%; #Perot 183,109 10.8%; *Anderson 16,481; **Wallace
691,425

Outlook
Alabama is Republican, simple as that. The last time the state voted Democratic was in
1976, when it went for Jimmy Carter, and only two of the nine members of its
Congressional delegation are Democrats.

Not surprisingly, the presidential candidates have left the state largely alone. Neither
Bush-Cheney nor Kerry-Edwards has run ads and Kerry has yet to visit the state [as of
10/1/04]

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 1 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)
Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: none
Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 3,309 (ranks #18)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 19
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 4
Polls
BUSH    KERRY   POLL                      DATE      MoE
59      22      Mobile Register           9/27-30   4.5
54      40      American Research Group   9/13-16   4
                                         ALASKA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 3
Polls Close: 1 am EST
Voting Age Population: 460,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 457,562; Registered Democrats: 71,073; Registered
Republicans: 116,435; Registered Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 270,054 (source: National
Journal July 08, 2003)

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC              OTHER
2000   285,560         167,398 58.6%          79,004 27.7%            39,158 ^ 13.7%
1996   241,620         122,746 50.8%          80,380 33.3%            38,494## 15.9%
1992   258,506         102,000 39.5%          78,294 30.3%            78,212# 30.2%
1988   200,116         119,251 59.6%          72,584 36.3%            8,281 4.1%
1984   207,605         138,377 66.7%          62,007 29.9%            7,221 3.4%
1980   158,445         86,112 54.3%           41,842 26.4%            30,491* 19.3%
1976   123,57l         71,555 57.9%           44,058 35.7%            7,961 6.4%
1977   95,219          55,349 58.1%           32,967 34.6%            6,903 7.3%
1968   83,035          37,600 45.3%           35,411 42.6%            10,024**12.1%
1964   67,259          22,930 34.1%           44,329 65.9%            --      --
1960   60,762          30,953 50.9%           29,809 49.1%            --      --

^ Nader 28,747 10%; ##Perot 26,333 10.9%; #Perot 73,481 28.4%; *Anderson 11,155;
**Wallace 10,024

Outlook
Having voted Republican in the past nine elections, Alaska is unlikely to break its
tradition this time around. From its Governor, to its Senators, to its sole House
Representative, Republicans run the 49th state. Though neither candidate visited the state
nor ran ads there, recent polls report that Bush is safely leading Kerry.

Of interest is this year’s Senate contest, which could be one of the most competitive in
the nation. Democrats have not seen an Alaskan Senate seat since 1974, but former
Governor Tony Knowles’ rising poll numbers have put this solid red seat into play.
Knowles is challenging appointed Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski (appointed by her
father, Governor Frank Murkowski), whose popularity is slowly sinking.

On Nov. 2, Alaskans will also be asked to vote on an initiative that would treat marijuana
like alcohol, removing “civil and criminal penalties under state law for persons 21 years
or older who grow, use, sell or give away marijuana or hemp products.” This initiative is
the first state attempt to regulate marijuana like alcohol, and interest on both sides of the
issue is expected to be high.

Ralph Nader, fielded by the Populist Party in Alaska, has about 5% in latest polls. Other
third-party presidential candidates on Alaska's ballot are David Cobb of the Green Party,
Michael Peroutka of the Alaskan Independence Party and Michael Badnarik of the
Alaska Libertarian Party.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Populist Party candidate.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: none
Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 291 (ranks #50)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 0
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls
BUSH          KERRY           POLL                         DATE             MoE
57            30              American Research Group      9/0-11           4
56            33              Dittman Research             6/23-30          4.3
                                        ARIZONA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 10
Polls Close: 9pm EST
Voting Age Population: 4,061,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 2,440,144; Registered Democrats: 856,075; Registered
Republicans: 976,280; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 607,789 (source:
Secretary of State as of September 7, 2004 primary)


Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   1,532,016       781,652 51.0%          685,341 44.7%          65,023^ 4.2%
1996   1,404,405       622,073 44.3%          653,288 46.5%          129,044## 9.1%
1992   1,486,975       572,086 38.5%          543,050 36.5%          371,839# 25.1%
1988   1,171,873       702,541 60.0%          454,029 39.7%          15,303 1.3%
1984   1,025,897       681,416 66.4%          333,854 32.5%          10,627 1.1%
1980   873,945         529,688 60.6%          246,843 28.2%          97,414* 11.2%
1976   742,719         418,642 56.4%          295,602 39.8%          28,475 3.8%
1972   622,926         402,812 64.7%          198,540 31.9%          21,574 3.4%
1968   486,936         266,721 54.8%          170,514 35.0%          49,701** 10.2%
1964   480,770         242,535 50.4%          237,753 49.5%          482    0.1%
1960   398,491         221,241 55.5%          176,781 44.4%          469    0.1%

^Nader 45,645 2.9%; ##Perot 112,072 8%; #Perot 353,741 23.8%; *Anderson 76,952; **Wallace
46,573

Outlook
Although Bill Clinton carried the state in 1996, Arizona is largely Republican at the
presidential level. The state has voted Republican for president in every year since 1948
when the state sided with Harry Truman. That said, a Democrat is governor and a more
traditionally Democratic issue, the environment, is important to voters across the political
spectrum. National Journal reports that “Clinton's staging of the announcement of a Utah
land preserve at the Grand Canyon may have carried Arizona single-handedly.”

Hoping to capitalize on Clinton’s win, his environmental record, and the large influx of
mostly Hispanic immigrants into the state, the Kerry campaign included Arizona on its
original battleground list. The campaign sent several field staff to the state, went on-air
on March 23 and spent more money on television there in early September. The
Democratic effort was supplemented by help from a Democratic 527 call the New
Democrat Network, which has targeted Arizona for part of its $6 million Spanish-
language advertising campaign (the state is 25.3% Latino), and America Coming
Together which is organizing Democratic GOTV in the state and hired new field staff for
the final two months.

On the Republican side, the Bush-Cheney campaign is determined to hold onto the state.
Bush has campaigned with popular home senator John McCain and advertised heavily.
The Bush team can also point to good economic numbers. Fueled by technology
companies, the state added 84,200 jobs since January 2001 (2,264,200 in January 2001 to
2,348,400 in August 2004). In addition, conservative voters may be energized by an
initiative on the ballot, Proposition 200, which would require proof of citizenship when
voting and would prevent undocumented immigrants from receiving public benefits.

The Bush-Cheney side is largely dismissive of the Kerry efforts in the state. While NDN
and ACT remain active, the Kerry campaign pulled its advertising slated to begin October
5, effectively going off the air with one month to go. The Kerry folks insist the state is
still in play and that they will win with their ground game. Despite that, the advertising
dollars are certainly a good indication of its level of confidence.

In terms of new voters, voter rolls grew overall by 7.6%, a total of 186,744 voters.
Democrats signed up 59,504 new voters for a 7.5% increase. Republicans registered
56,097, for a 6.1% increase. Nonaffiliated voters jumped by 70,518, or 13.5%.

CBS Cameo: the final presidential debate was held in the state at Arizona State
University in Tempe, Arizona. In advance of the debate, a group called Communities for
Quality Education, ran an ad featuring CBS’ own Bob Scheiffer in which a young girl
writes him a letter imploring him to ask President Bush why he “under funded” No Child
Left Behind in the sate.

In 1996, Clinton carried Arizona by winning larger than expected majorities in Phoenix
and Maricopa. In 2000, however, Gore lost those counties and also the smaller areas
outside Tucson where Democrats had previously done well. For Kerry to prevail, which
looks increasingly unlikely, he will have to follow Clinton’s lead: carry the big cities and
make the environment a visible priority.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 3 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 7 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,325 (ranks #35)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 26
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                           DATE            MoE
48             38             Arizona Republic               10/2-4          4
53   38   AZ State Univ.   9/23-26   4.1
                                       ARKANSAS
Overview
Electoral College votes: 6
Polls Close: 8:30pm EST
Voting Age Population: 2,044,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registration: 1,125,000 as of November 2002. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   921,781        472,940 51.3%          422,768 45.9%          36,073 ^ 3.9%
1996   884,262        325,416 36.8%          475,171 53.7%          83,675## 9.5%
1992   950,653        337,324 35.5%          505,823 53.2%          107,506# 11.3%
1988   827,738        466,578 56.4%          349,247 42.2%          11,923 1.4%
1984   884,406        534,774 60.5%          338,646 38.3%          10,986 1.2%
1980   837,582        403,164 48.1%          398,041 47.5%          36,377* 84.4%
1976   767,535        267,903 34.9%          498,604 65.0%          1,028 0.1%
1972   651,320        448,541 68.9%          199,892 30.7%          2,887 0.4%
1968   619,969        190,759 30.8%          188,228 30.4%          240,982* 8.8%
1964   560,426        243,264 43.4%          314,197 56.1%          2,965 0.5%
1960   428,509        184,508 43.1%          215,049 50.2%          28,952 6.7%

^13,421 Nader 1.4%; ##Perot 69,884 7.9%; #Perot 99,132; **Anderson 22,468; *Wallace
240,982

Outlook
A Democratic presidential candidate is unlikely to win Arkansas in these post-Clinton
times. Northwest Arkansas in particular has now become a strong Republican base,
overwhelming the state’s Democratic past. Despite its Republican leanings, Arkansas did
support its own Governor, Bill Clinton, in 1992 with 53%, his best percentage in that
year. In 1996, he won 54% of the vote, his 8th best percentage that year.

As of the 2000 elections, Arkansas turned Republican in a move that dovetailed with
George W. Bush’s success in other Southern states. Bush won 51% of the vote after
intense targeting, although that was his lowest percentage in the South except for Florida.
In 1996 Clinton carried Arkansas 53.7% to 36.8, and in 1992 he won the state 53.2 to
35.5%.

Perhaps because of that, the Kerry campaign made an effort in the state early. According
to the state director Rodney Shelton, the Kerry campaign had 40 staffers in the state at
one point (38 of whom were paid by the DNC) and the campaign announced that
Arkansas would be part of its post-Labor Day advertising buy. In reality, however, Kerry
visited the state only twice back in May and, in late September, the campaign pulled
advertising planned for October 5. President Bush, who has visited the state four times in
2004, quickly moved his resources to other states, suggesting that both campaigns agree
the state will go Republican.
Arkansas prides itself on being a traditional values state; 58% of adults are married,
higher than any other state except Idaho and Utah. The definition of marriage initiative
on this year’s ballot is expected to bring additional Republicans to the polls. On the other
side, Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln faces a re-election fight against state Sen. Jim
Holt. It is unclear how close the election will be but Lincoln is expected to win.

As of October 14, a new poll showed a much closer race than expected: 46.2% for Bush
to 44.6% for Kerry. Neither campaign is putting resources back into the sate as of
October 15, but that could change.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Populist Party candidate.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 3 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 2 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: none
Kerry-Edwards: none

Presidential Television Advertising
None

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 3,580 (ranks #16)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 14
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                           DATE           MoE
46             44             Arkansas Democrat Gazette      10/10-11       4.5
52             43             Opinion Research (R)           10/4-6         4.5
48             45             American Research Group        9/15-17        4
                                      CALIFORNIA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 55
Polls Close: 11pm EST
Voting Age Population: 26,064,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 15,168,263; Registered Democrats: 6,733,858; Registered
Republicans: 5,341,974; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 3,092,431
(source: National Journal November 18, 2003)

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   10,965,856      4,567,429 41.7%        5,861,203 53.4%        537,224^4.8%
1996   10,019,484      3,828,380 38.2%        5,119,835 51.1%        1,071,269## 10.7%
1992   11,131,721      3,630,574 32.6%        5,121,325 46.0%        2,379,822# 21.3
1988   9,887,065       5,054,917 51.1%        4,702,233 47.6%        129,915 1.3%
1984   9,505,423       5,467,009 57.5%        3,922,519 41.3%        115,895 1.2%
1980   8,587,063       4,524,858 52.7%        3,083,661 35.9%        978,544* 11.4%
1976   7,867,117       3,882,244 49.3%        3,742,284 47.6%        242,589 3.1%
1972   8,367,862       4,602,096 55.0%        3,475,847 41.5%        289,919 3.5%
1968   7,251,587       3,467,664 47.8%        3,244,318 44.7%        539,605** 7.5%
1964   7,057,586       2,879,108 40.8%        4,171,877 59.1%        6,601 0.1%
1960   6,506,578       3,259,722 50.1%        3,224,099 49.6%        22,757 0.3%

^Nader 418,707 3.8%; ##Perot 697,847 7%; #Perot 2,296,006 20.6; *Anderson 739,833;
**Wallace 487,270

Outlook
Although California has sent its share of Republicans to the White House, Senate, and
Governorship in the past, the 1990s changed the political tide in favor of the Democratic
Party. The Clinton years must have solidified the state’s Democratic fervor, as Al Gore
was able to win the state’s 55 electoral votes without spending a penny in advertising in
the state. In a failed effort to get Gore to spend some of his resources in the state, Bush
spent a whopping $20 million on media advertising, only to loose California by 19
percentage points.

Of interest is California’s Senate race, where Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer is
running for her third term. Boxer’s campaign has been going strong since March 15th,
raising money, campaigning on weekends, and touting a record on health care, education,
and gas prices. She is strongly against the war in Iraq and criticizes Bush’s allocation of
funds. Republicans have faced difficulty mounting a successful challenge to Boxer,
especially given her well-funded campaign war chest. California Secretary of State Bill
Jones, the Republican nominated to oppose Boxer, has not seen his chances of winning
improve despite being accompanied through the state by President Bush and his
campaign efforts with Senator John McCain.

Californians will also be voting on stem cell research and the three-strike revision on
Nov. 2. Proposition 71 seeks to raise $3 billion for stem-cell research, which goes against
Bush’s effort to suppress public funds for such stem-cell studies. Supporters of the
initiative have raised more than $13 million and are sponsoring television advertising
statewide. Efforts by opponents to defeat the measure have been less effective and the
measure is widely expected to pass. Proposition 66 looks to change the current “Three
Strikes” laws that force life imprisonment for anyone convicted of three felonies in the
state. The proposition would change those strikes to include only violent and/or serious
felonies and would grant re-sentencing hearings to some inmates. Because the original
three strikes law passed in 1994 with 72% of the vote, the new proposition is expected to
fail.

In recent polls, Bush currently trails Kerry by about 10 percentage points. Bush has not
spent money in the state this time.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot in California.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 2 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 13 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: none
Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 7,165 (ranks #2)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 123
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 10

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                       DATE              MoE
40             49             The Field Poll             9/30-10/3         4.3
42             48             Survey And Policy Research 9/27-10/1         4
                                      COLORADO
Overview
Electoral College votes: 9
Polls Close: 9pm EST
Voting Age Population: 3,398,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 2,955,483; Registered Democrats: 911,298; Registered
Republicans: 1,090,143; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 954,042 (source:
Sept. 14 2004, Secretary of State)

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC            OTHER
2000   1,741,368      883,748 50.8%          738,227 42.4          119,393^ 6.8%
1996   1,510,704      691,848 45.8%          671,152 44.4%         147,704 ## 9.8%
1992   1,569,180      562,850 35.9%          629,681 40.1%         376,649 24.0%
1988   1,372,394      728,177 53.1%          621,453 45.3%         22,764 1.6%
1984   1,295,380      821,817 63.4%          454,975 35.1%         18,588 1.5%
1980   1,184,415      652,264 55.1%          367,973 31.1%         164,178* 13.8%
1976   1,081,554      584,367 54.0%          460,353 42.6%         36,834 3.4%
1972   953,884        597,189 62.6%          329,980 34.6%         26,715 2.8%
1968   811,199        409,345 50.5%          335,174 41.3%         66,680** 8.2%
1964   776,986        296,767 38.2%          476,024 61.3%         4,195 0.5%
1960   736,236        402,242 54.6%          330,629 44.9%         3,365 0.5%

^ Nader 91,434 5.2%; ##Perot 99,629 6.6%; #Perot 366,010 23.3%; *Anderson 130,633;
**Wallace 60,813

Outlook
In 1992, Bill Clinton was the first Democrat to carry the state since Lyndon Johnson did
in 1964 and that was after an economic slump hit the state in the 1980s. Colorado
rebounded in the 1990s: Denver added high-tech and telecommunications companies and
the economy grew by over 6% every year. With that boom, however, came conservatives
looking for lower taxes/less government and the state moved rightward. In 1995,
Democratic Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell switched parties to become a Republican
and, in 1996, Clinton lost the state to Senator Bob Dole. By 2002, the state had a
Republican governor, two Republican senators and only two Democratic Representatives
out of seven. In 2000, Gore did not even target the state.

Despite the daunting numbers, the Kerry campaign has targeted the state and, with only
two weeks to go, polls show a close race. Kerry was born in CO at Fitzsimons Army
Hospital and, starting in May, the Kerry campaign launched an ambitious $1 million
advertising campaign in the state. The Bush-Cheney campaign, which had not considered
the state a toss-up, quickly followed with its own ads.

Many Democrats hope voters are energized by Amendment 36, which would award
Colorado’s Electoral College votes proportionately instead of the current winner-take-all
method. The amendment would be effective immediately: If George Bush wins 60% of
the popular vote in Colorado, he would win five electoral votes. If John Kerry wins 40%
of the popular vote, he would take four. The Amendment is being backed by some of the
state’s prominent Democrats, while the entire Republican Party is publicly opposed.
Ads on the subject are also filling the airwaves. Democrats may also come to the polls in
larger numbers because of the competitive Senate race between Republican Peter Coors
(as in the beer) and Democratic Attorney General Ken Salazar. The race, following
Nighthorse Campbell’s unexpected retirement, is a toss-up.

Economically, the state has lost ground since Bush took office, down 68,800 jobs over
four years (2,245,200 jobs in January 2001 to 2,176,400 in August 2004). Manufacturing
jobs are not a major issue, but the state’s tech industry was hit hard by the dot.com bust.
On the upside, the economy has added jobs in the past year, from a low of 2,145,600 in
September 2003, and the unemployment rate is below the national average, 5.1%
compared to the 5.4% (August), both of which may benefit President Bush.
Unfortunately, that 5.1% unemployment rate is up from 2.6% in 2001.

Hoping to capitalize, the Kerry campaign put extra ad dollars into the state starting in late
September and has stayed on the air through mid-October. For the week of October 7
through 13, Kerry upped his ad buy by $200K to $777,352, which is an aggressive buy
suggesting a winnable state. Bush-Cheney followed suit, increasing its ad buy $100K to
$706,502 for the same period. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
pulled its ads supporting Democrat Dave Thomas who is challenging Republican Rep.
Bob Beauprez in the 7th district. Instead, Dems are targeting the senate and presidential
vote: Sen. Kerry decided to prep for his second debate in the state and the DNC and the
New Democrat Network are adding their advertising dollars to Kerry’s.

For Kerry to win, look for stronger-than-expected returns from the Denver, Pueblo, Fort
Range and Boulder areas.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Reform Party candidate.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 2 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 7 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 790 (ranks #44)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 14
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls
BUSH           KERRY           POLL                           DATE           MoE
50             41              Mason-Dixon                    10/4-6         4
49   49   CNN/USA Today/Gallup   10/4-6   5
                                     CONNECTICUT
Overview
Electoral College votes: 7
Polls Close: 8pm EST
Voting Age Population: 2,648,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 1,995,684; Registered Democrats: 682,478; Registered Voters
Republican: 462,338; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 850,868 (source:
National Journal July 25, 2003)

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   1,459,525       561,094 38.4%          816,015 55.9%          82,416^ 5.6%
1996   1,392,614       483,109 34.7%          735,740 52.8%          173,765## 12.4%
1992   1,616,332       578,313 35.8%          682,318 42.2%          355,700# 22.0%
1988   1,443,394       750,241 52.0%          676,584 46.9%          16,569 0.9%
1984   1,466,900       890,877 60.7%          569,597 38.8%          6,426 0.5%
1980   1,406,285       677,210 48.2%          541,732 38.5%          187,343* 13.3%
1976   1,381,526       719,261 52.1%          647,895 46.9%          14,370 1.0%
1972   1,384,277       810,763 58.6%          555,498 40.1%          18,016 1.3%
1968   1,256,232       556,721 44.3%          621,561 49.5%          77,950** 6.2%
1964   1,218,578       390,996 32.1%          826,269 67.8%          1,313 0.1%
1960   1,222,883       565,813 46.3%          657,055 53.7%          15     --

^ Nader 64,452 4.4%; ##Perot 139,523 10%; #Perot 348,771 21.6%; *Anderson 171,807;
**Wallace 621,561

Outlook
Over the years, Connecticut has flipped between the parties, moving towards Republicans
in the 1970s and 1980s and then towards Democrats in the 1990s. Although Connecticut
has the highest per-capita income, it now consistently votes Democratic for president. In
2000, Al Gore won 55.9% of the vote, running ahead in every county in the state. Why
does this state vote Democratic? Socio-cultural issues seem to play a bigger role than a
desire for tax cuts for wealthy Connecticut voters. Also, in 2000, Connecticut native Joe
Lieberman’s appearance on the Democratic ticket led to increased support.

Downballot, Democratic Sen. Christopher Dodd is expected to easily win re-election
against challenger Jack Orchulli. In House races, the only potentially close race will be in
the 2nd District, where incumbent Rep. Rob Simmons (R) will attempt to ward off a
challenge from Jim Sullivan (D).

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 2 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: none
Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 969 (ranks #42)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 8
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                     DATE      MoE
44            50            Quinnipiac               9/26-28   3
39            54            American Research Group 9/12-14    4
                                       DELAWARE
Overview
Electoral College votes: 3
Polls Close: 8pm EST
Voting Age Population: 619,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 519,816; Registered Voters Democrat: 224,130; Registered
Voters Republican: 175,326; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 120,360

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   327,622         137,288 41.9%          180,068 55.0%          10,266^ 3.1%
1996   271,084         99,062 36.5%           140,355 51.8%          31,667## 11.7%
1992   289,735         102,313 35.3%          126,054 43.5%          61,368# 21.1%
1988   249,891         139,639 55.9%          108,647 43.5%          1,605 0.6%
1984   254,572         152,190 59.8%          101,656 39.9%          726    0.3%
1980   235,900         111,252 47.2%          105,754 44.8%          18,894* 8.0%
1976   235,834         109,831 46.6%          122,596 52.0%          3,407 1.4%
1972   235,516         140,357 59.6%          92,283 39.2%           2,876 1.2%
1968   214,367         96,714 45.1%           89,194 41.6%           28,459** 13.3%
1964   201,320         78,078 38.8%           122,704 60.9%          538    0.3%
1960   196,683         96,373 49.0%           99,590 50.6%           720    0.4%

^ Nader 8,307 2.5%; ##Perot 28,719 10.6%; #Perot 59,213 20.4%; *Anderson 16,288; **Wallace
28,459

Outlook
Delaware is expected to vote Democratic in the presidential elections this November. The
last time a Republican presidential candidate won Delaware was George Bush Sr. in
1988. Since then, Democrats have won by a fairly strong margin. There is some division
within the state: the New Castle suburbs tend heavily towards the Democrats, whereas the
two lower counties trend Republican. This year, however, that potential does not look
likely to turn the state red. Neither campaign has advertised in the state, but a majority of
it does see Philadelphia advertising where both campaigns are up.

Senior Democratic Senator Joseph Biden, whose term is up in 2008, is a major surrogate
for Kerry. It has been mentioned that he may even be a possible Secretary of State under
Kerry. Neither senator in Delaware is up for re-election this November. Incumbent
Governor Ruth Ann Miller (D) faces candidate challenger Bill Lee (R).

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as a member of the Independent Party of
Delaware.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: none, but some advertising from other states reach DE markets
Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 351 (ranks #48)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 5
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                         DATE          MoE
38            45            West Chester Univ.           9/22-25       3.9
41            50            American Research Group      9/13-15       4
                              DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 3
Polls Close: 8pm EST
Voting Age Population: 455,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total 332,358; Registered Democrats: 254,628; Registered
Republicans: 24,850; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 52,880

Past Presidential Election Results
        TOTAL         REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000    201,894       18,073 9.0%            171,923 85.2%          11,898^ 5.9%
1996    185,726       17,339 9.3%            158,220 85.2%          10,167## 5.5%
1992    227,572       20,698 9.1%            192,619 85.0%          14,225# 6.3%
1988    192,877       27,590 14.3%           159,407 82.6%          5,880 4.1%
1984    211,288       29,009 13.7%           180,408 85.4%          1,871 0.9%
1980    175,237       23,545 13.4%           131,113 74.8%          20,579* 11.8%
1976    168,830       27,873 16.5%           137,818 81.6%          3,139 1.9%
1972    163,421       35,226 21.6%           127,627 78.1%          568    0.3%
1968    170,578       31,012 18.2%           139,566 81.8%          **     --
1964    198,597       28,801 14.5%           169,796 85.5%          --     --

^ Nader 10,576 5.2%; ##Perot 3,611 1.9%; #Perot 9,681 4.3%; *Anderson 16,337; **Wallace
139,566

Outlook
There is little to be said about the overwhelmingly Democratic District of Columbia other
than that Kerry looks to win it by a tremendous margin. In 2000, Bush lost the District to
Al Gore by a whopping 76 percentage points and according to latest polls, Bush’s
chances in the District for this year’s election should be no better.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as a member of the Independent Party of DC.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 35 (as of 10/11/04) (not including 2 off days)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: none
Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 47 (ranks #51)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 3
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1


Polls
BUSH   KERRY   POLL                      DATE      MoE
11     78      American Research Group   9/11-13    4
                                        FLORIDA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 27
Polls Close: 8:00pm EST
Voting Age Population: 13,095,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 10,301,290 as of 10/22/04. Registered Democrats 4,261,249;
Registered Republicans: 3,892,492; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties:
2,147,549 (per 10/11/04)

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   5,936,110      2,912,790 48.8%        2,912,253 48.8%        138,067^ 2.3%
1996   5,303,794      2,244,536 42.3%        2,546,870 48.0%        512,388## 9.7%
1992   5,314,392      2,173,310 40.1%        2,072,698 39.0%        1,068,384# 20.1%
1988   4,302,313      2,613,885 60.9%        1,656,701 38.5%        26,727 0.6%
1984   4,180,051      2,730,350 65.3%        1,448,816 34.7%        885     0.0%
1980   3,686,930      2,046,951 55.5%        1,419,475 38.5%        220,504* 6.0%
1976   3,150,631      1,469,531 46.6%        1,636,000 51.9%        45,100 1.5%
1972   2,583,283      1,857,759 71.9%        718,117 27.8%          7,407 0.3%
1968   2,187,805      886,804 40.5%          676,794 30.9%          624,207** 28.6%
1964   1,854,481      905,941 48.9%          948,540 51.1%          --      --
1960   1,544,176      795,476 51.5%          748,700 48.5%          --      --

^ Nader 97,488 1.6%; ##Perot 483,870 9.1%; #Perot 1,053,067 19.8%; *Anderson 189,692;
**Wallace 624,207

Outlook
The importance of Florida in this year’s presidential match-up is hard to overstate. The
left-over political drama from 2000, the difficulty of campaigning during a bad hurricane
season, the competitive nature of the Senate race, and the massive growth in population
and voter registration in the state are all heightened by the fact that, with 27 Electoral
College votes, Florida is by far the largest prize of any of the swing states.

But if Florida looks like ground-zero this time around, it has not always been. Although
Clinton won the state in 1996, it went Republican for George H.W. Bush in 1988 and
1992 and for Reagan in 1980 and 1984. As the state has grown (from only seven
Electoral College votes in 1964), it has polarized along lines that almost mirror the
country. Millions of Latin American immigrants, retirees from the Northeast and Jewish
voters have turned Broward and Palm Beach counties into +65% Democratic counties. In
Escambia and Okaloosa counties, the populations in growing suburbs and around large
military installations now vote +65% for Republicans. In terms of base, Southeast
Florida is key for Kerry, Northeast and Panhandle Florida for Bush. The main swing
vote is along the so-called I-4 corridor in central Florida from Tampa Bay to Daytona
Beach.

Because Florida is so important, both campaigns are aggressively targeting it. President
Bush has visited the state 12 times in 2004 alone [update number in late Oct.], with more
visits only to Pennsylvania. In 1992, Bush père was criticized for not acting rapidly
enough to help victims of Hurricane Andrew and George W. Bush has tried to avoid that
mistake, already funneling more than $12 million in federal emergency aid to the state.
Despite Bush’s efforts, the hurricanes did hurt his effort at least tangentially: damage
from and coverage of Hurricane Charley pre-empted his convention acceptance speech in
some Florida media markets.

For its part, the Kerry campaign has been active in the state since he clinched the
nomination. Kerry has been on-air consistently since late March and has dispatched a
bevy of high-level surrogates including his brother Cameron and popular Senators Bob
Graham and Joe Lieberman to woo voters. Graham has also appeared in television
commercials for the Kerry campaign that ran in the Miami area. Kerry’s efforts have
been supplemented by an enormous advertising and get out the vote effort by Democratic
527s like the New Democrat Network and America Coming Together. ACT alone has
300 paid workers in the state as of October 11. Unfortunately for Kerry, the hurricane
season kept him largely out of Florida in August and September, losing crucial weeks of
campaigning as Bush visited in his role as Comforter in Chief.

One example of the focus on Florida can be seen in the sheer amount of television
advertising. According to AP reporting, from March to early October, Bush and Kerry
have each spent more than $35 million on television ads. Of that, $13.5 million was spent
on airing ads in the I-4 corridor alone. From September 30 through October 13, the Bush
and Kerry campaigns spent about one-quarter of their entire advertising budgets in the
state: Kerry running 7,812 ads for $8.26 million and Bush running 8,312 spots worth $9.3
million. Tampa has been the top target: from March 3 through September 25, the
campaigns aired nearly the same number of ads (4,783 for Bush and 4,711 for Kerry) and
both sides spent an about estimated $5 million there. In the category of giving back,
Floridians are very generous with donations to federal candidates, giving $106 million to
various politicians across the country.

Down ballot, a competitive Senate race and an initiative about abortion may bring extra
voters to the polls. In the Senate, former Bush administration official Mel Martinez will
face former Commissioner of Education Betty Castor (D) in a very close race for the seat
that belongs to retiring Democrat Bob Graham. Democrats are desperate to hold the seat
while Republicans see it as ripe for pick up, energizing both sides. The abortion initiative,
if passed, would change Florida’s state constitution to require minors to seek parental
consent for abortions.

Economically, Florida is a strange state and the numbers do not provide extra
ammunition for either side. The state has gained 303,800 jobs since January 2001,
(7,152,400 in January 2001 to 7,456,200 in August 2004) and its unemployment rate of
4.5% is below the national average of 5.4%. On the downside, much of the economic
growth is unevenly distributed, with millions of people (many immigrants), largely left
out of the economic boom.
In 2000, Gore won among African-American voters 93% to 7%, but lost among Latinos
(50% to 48%) and among voters over 65 (52% to 46%). Women and Jewish voters were
kind to Clinton-Gore and to Gore-Lieberman, but may not turn out in such large numbers
for Kerry. For Kerry to win this time, he needs to keep the 2000 margins, reach out more
effectively to Latinos and win some of the Arab-Americans (an estimated 100,000 voters)
that Gore lost but who are disillusioned with Bush.

For Bush, he must retain his strength among seniors (who, despite predictions, were not
turned off by his talk of individual retirement accounts) and increase turnout among his
base. In 2000, Cuban voters broke overwhelmingly for Bush, a pattern that many of this
year’s polls indicate will not be repeated (NDN has spent about $300,000 on ads
targeting the Cuban-American community). Bush may be helped by his brother, Gov.
Jeb Bush, whose popularity has grown. If Bush can make inroads among women,
maintain his standing among Latinos in general and energize voters who stayed home in
2000, he may prevail.

Many Democrats openly blame Ralph Nader for costing Al Gore the election in 2000
and, indeed, Nader received 97,488 votes in Florida, far more than the eventual 537 vote
margin. But, 40,579 votes were also cast for other candidates (Libertarian, etc.) and
Nader uses this figure to vigorously defend himself. The Nader-Camejo ticket is actively
organizing in the state and, after much legal scrambling, the Nader-Camejo line will
appear on the 2004 ballot. The only thing that is clear about Nader’s impact this year is
that it is uncertain.

Beyond Nader, there is another X factor in Florida. As in Ohio and Pennsylvania, both
parties have made an effort to register new voters. In Florida, there were approximately 1
million new voters on the rolls, 300,000 of whom live in the swing area along the I-4
corridor. The overall number includes 270,000 new Republicans and 263,000 new
registered Democrats. Both parties hope these new voters will turnout to vote for the first
time, but their participation is in no way guaranteed.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Reform Party candidate.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 11 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 22 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: $35 million (AP 10/15)
Kerry-Edwards: $35 million (AP 10/15)
**Will almost certainly be the #1 state in TV advertising dollars spent**

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 3,063 (ranks #20)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 43
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 14
Polls
BUSH    KERRY   POLL                      DATE     MoE
49      44      Strategic Vision (R)      10/4-6   3
48      44      Mason-Dixon               10/4-5   4
51      44      Quinnipiac                10/1-5   3
45      47      American Research Group   10/2-5   4
47      49      Hamilton Beattie (D)      10/1-4   3.5
                                        GEORGIA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 15
Polls Close: 7pm EST
Voting Age Population: 6,388,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 4,400,273 (According to Press Secretary Ava Turner). Voters
do not register by party

Past Presidential Election Results

       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN            DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   2,596,645      1,419,720 54.7%       1,116,230 43.0%        60,695^ 2.3%
1996   2,299,071      1,080,843 47.0%       1,053,849 46.0%        164,379## 7.1%
1992   2,321,125      995,252 43.0%         1,008,966 43.5%        316,907# 13.7%
1988   1,809,672      1,081,331 59.8%       714,792 39.5%          13,549 0.7%
1984   1,776,120      1,068,722 60.2%       706,628 39.8%          770    0.0%
1980   1,596,695      654,168 41.0%         890,733 55.8%          51,794*3.2%
1976   1,467,458      483,743 33.0%         979,409 66.7%          4,306 0.3%
1972   1,174,772      881,496 75.0%         289,529 24.6%          3,747 0.4%
1968   1,250,266      380,111 30.4%         334,440 26.7%          535,715** 42.9%
1964   1,139,335      616,584 54.1%         522,556 45.9%          195    --
1960   733,349        274,472 37.4%         458,638 62.5%          239    0.1%

^Nader 13,273 0.5%; ##Perot 146,337 6.4%; #Perot 309,657 13.3%; *Anderson 36,055;
**Wallace 535,550

Outlook
Long gone is the Georgia of 1960 Presidential Election, which at the time had the second-
highest Democratic percentage of any state. Long gone too is the Senator Zell Miller of
old, the Democrat who helped Bill Clinton win the state’s primary and who later
delivered the Democratic National Convention’s keynote address on behalf of Clinton in
1992.

Up until 2002, Democrats dominated in statewide offices, with residents voting
Republican only in the 1972, 1984 and 1988 Presidential Elections. Clinton’s loss of the
state in 1996 was a sign of changes that were about to take place. In 2000, George W.
Bush solidly won Georgia, 55 to 43%. Zell Miller’s metamorphosis from a centrist
Democrat to a thundering supporter of all things Republican (he delivered the keynote
address at this year’s Republican Convention in New York City) is emblematic of the
changing political tide in the state. In 2002, Georgia’s Democrats lost their majority in
the State Senate when four senators switched parties and gave Republicans control for the
first time since Reconstruction. Fuelling Georgia’s transformation into a Republican
stronghold is Ralph Reed, the Bush-Cheney campaign Southeast Regional Chair and
former head of the Christian Coalition. Reed was a major force in creating voter
registration drives in Republican counties and helped line up strong Republican
candidates for governor and senator. As a result, in 2002, Democrat Max Cleland lost his
senate seat to Republican Congressman Saxby Chambliss and Governor Roy Barnes lost
to Democrat-turned-Republican former state Senator Sonny Perdue.

Miller’s support for President Bush carries few political repercussions as the Senator is
retiring this year. Vying for his senate seat are Republican Johnny Isakson and Democrat
Denise Majette. Isakson seems to be well ahead of his Democratic opponent both in
campaign finances and in poll numbers, though the width of the margin depends on
which party is conducting the poll.

Georgians will also be voting on an amendment to the state Constitution to ban same-sex
marriage. As gay marriage is already illegal in the state, placing the referendum on the
ballot might ensure a mobilization of evangelical and conservative voters wishing to
make a statement.

Most recent polls show President Bush solidly ahead of Democratic Sen. John Kerry.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 4 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 5 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: none
Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,980 (ranks #27)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 25
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls
BUSH          KERRY           POLL                         DATE           MoE
58            34              Strategic Vision (R)         9/25-27        3
53            42              American Research Group      9/11-13        4
                                         HAWAII
Overview
Electoral College votes: 4
Polls Close: 11pm EST
Voting Age Population: 960,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered voters: 402,000 as of November 2002. Voters do not register by party

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC              OTHER
2000   367,951         137,845 37.5%          205,286 55.8%           24,820^ 6.7%
1996   360,120         113,943 31.6%          205,012 57.0%           41,165## 11.4%
1992   372,842         136,822 37.0%          179,310 48.1%           56,710# 15.2%
1988   354,461         158,625 44.8%          192,364 54.3%           3,472 0.9%
1984   335,846         185,050 55.1%          147,154 43.8%           3,642 1.1%
1980   303,287         130,112 42.9%          135,879 44.8%           5,767* 1.9%
1976   291,301         140,003 48.1%          147,375 50.6%           3,923 1.3%
1972   270,274         168,865 62.5%          101,409 37.5%           --     --
1968   236,218         91,425 38.7%           141,324 59.8%           3,469**1.5%
1964   207,271         44,022 21.2%           163,249 78.8%           --     --
1960   184,705         92,295 50.0%           92,410 50.0%            --     --

^ Nader 21,623 5.9%; ##Perot 27,358 7.6%; #Perot 53,003 14.2%; *Anderson 32,021; **Wallace
3,469

Outlook
For the past 40 years Hawaii has trended Democratic. During that time, in eleven
presidential elections, the island has voted for a Republican candidate only twice, in 1984
and 1972. In 1996, Bill Clinton won 57% of the vote compared to Bob Dole’s 32% and,
in 2000, Al Gore won similarly by 56% as compared to George W. Bush’s 37%. The last
Republican to win Hawaii was Ronald Reagan in 1984.

While both the island’s senators are Democratic, Hawaii did recently elect a Republican
governor, Linda Lingle. Few observers of national polls, however, expect Hawaii to vote
for George W. Bush.

Being a safe state for Kerry, neither candidate has advertised in the state.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:
Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 3,216 (ranks #19)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 0
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                     DATE       MoE
41            51            *American Research Group 9/7-11     4
41            48            SMS Research             7/29-8/3   3.7
                                         IDAHO
Overview
Electoral College votes: 4
Polls Close: 11:00 pm EST
Voting Age Population: 994,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registration: 569,000 as of November 2002. Voters do not register by party.
*Election day registration available.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   501,621        336,937 67.2%          138,637 27.6%          26,047^ 5.2%
1996   491,719        256,595 52.2%          165,443 33.6%          69,681## 14.2%
1992   482,142        202,645 42.0%          137,013 28.4%          142,484# 30.0%
1988   408,968        253,881 62.1%          147,272 36.0%          7,815 1.9%
1984   411,144        297,523 72.4%          108,510 26.4%          5,111 1.2%
1980   437,431        290,699 66.5%          110,192 25.2%          36,540* 8.3%
1976   344,071        204,151 59.3%          126,549 36.8%          13,371 3.9%
1972   310,379        199,384 64.2%          80,826 26.0%           30,169 9.8%
1968   291,183        165,369 56.8%          89,273 30.7%           36,541** 12.5%
1964   292,477        143,557 49.1%          148,920 50.9%          --     --
1960   300,450        161,597 53.8%          138,853                46.2% --      --

^ Nader 12,292 2.5%; ##Perot 62,518 12.7%; #Perot 130,395 27%; *Anderson 27,058;
**Wallace 36,541

Outlook
The state faced economic fallout during the Clinton era when Idaho’s farming and
agricultural communities suffered setbacks as a result of a number environmental
protections put in place by the Democratic administration. In 2000, George W. Bush
carried the state by a 67-28% margin while two Republican candidates won their house
races by 71 and 65%. Republicans fill all of Idaho’s major political positions, from the
Governor to local representatives (there are 23 Democrats to the 82 Republicans in the
state Senate and House). The last time a Democrat won the state was 1964, when
Lyndon B. Johnson carried the Idaho.

Needless to say, the Kerry-Edwards campaign has no real hope success in the state. The
only exception is Blaine County, the wealthiest and most liberal county in the state,
which went for Gore in 2000. It doesn’t hurt that Teresa Heinz Kerry has a home Blaine
County (Ketchum to be exact).

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04) (Kerry also spent 10 off days at his vacation house)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 2,035 (ranks #26)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 7
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                     DATE     MoE
59            30            *American Research Group 9/8-10   4
                                         ILLINOIS
Overview
Electoral College votes: 21
Polls Close: 8pm EST
Voting Age Population: 9,423,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 7,137,954 (As of General Primary 3/16/2004). Voters do not
register by party

*More recent data will be out a week before the election.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICANS            DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   4,742,123       2,019,421 42.6%        2,589,026 54.6%        133,676^2.8%
1996   4,311,391       1,587,021 37.0%        2,341,744 54.3%        382,626## 9.0%
1992   5,050,157       1,734,096 34.3%        2,453,350 49.0%        862,711# 17.1%
1988   4,559,120       2,310,939 50.7%        2,215,940 48.6%        32,241 0.7%
1984   4,819,088       2,707,103 56.2%        2,086,499 43.3%        25,486 0.5%
1980   4,749,721       2,358,049 49.6%        1,981,413 41.7%        410,259* 8.7%
1976   4,718,914       2,364,269 50.1%        2,271,295 48.1%        83,350 1.8%
1972   4,723,236       2,788,179 59.0%        1,913,472 40.5%        21,585 0.5%
1968   4,619,749       2,174,774 47.1%        2,039,814 44.2%        405,161** 8.7%
1964   4,702,841       1,905,946 40.5%        2,796,833 59.5%        62     --
1960   4,757,409       2,368,988 49.8%        2,377,846 50.0%        10,575 0.2%

^ Nader 103,759 2.2%; ##Perot 346,408 8%; #Perot 840,515 16.6%; *Anderson 346,754;
**Wallace 390,958

Outlook
Illinois has treated Democratic presidential candidates well in the past three elections and
this year should be no different. The Democratic Daley family influence continues to
reign supreme in the form of Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley. Daley was influential in
swinging the traditionally Republican-leaning suburbs for Clinton in 1996 and Gore in
2000 and has officially endorsed the Kerry-Edwards for this election. Democrats also
stack up as the better alternative to the Republican corruption that plagued the state party
in recent years.

Although one current poll shows Bush closing in on the 10-point lead Kerry enjoyed over
recent months, Bush has only visited the state once and Illinois has not been subjected to
the advertising barrage currently overwhelming neighboring Iowa, Wisconsin, and
Missouri. Polls show that the Kerry’s supporters in Illinois have increased their level of
commitment to the candidate and the majority of voters continue to have a negative
opinion of Bush’s job performance. The President is unlikely to carry the state.

Also of interest is the heated Senate race between the much-touted Democratic National
Convention star, state Sen. Barack Obama, and his GOP conservative rival from
Maryland, Alan Keyes (who accepted the Republican nomination in August after Jack
Ryan dropped out of the race in late June because of sex scandal allegations). Recent
polls show Obama well ahead his controversial opponent.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Campaign Contact Information
Kerry-Edwards
Porter McNeil
Other: 309-236-1484
pmcneil@johnkerry.com

Republican Party of Illinois
Executive Director Brad Goodrich
Office: (217)525-0011

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 1 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 6 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,483 (ranks #11)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 46
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 6

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                          DATE           MoE
38             55             *Research 2000                10/3-4         4
40             49             Market Shares Corp.           9/17-20        4
                                         INDIANA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 11
Polls Close: 7pm EST
Voting Age Population: 4,592,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 4,008,636. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   2,199,302       1,245,836 56.6%        901,980 41.0%          51,486^ 2.3%
1996   2,135,842       1,006,693 47.1%        887,424 42.0%          241,725## 11.3%
1992   2,305,871       989,3754 30%           848,420 37.0%          468,076# 20.3%
1988   2,168,621       1,297,763 59.8%        860,643 39.7%          10,215 0.5%
1984   2,233,069       1,377,230 61.7%        841,481 37.7%          14,358 0.6%
1980   2,242,033       1,255,656 56.0%        844,197 37.7%          142,180* 6.3%
1976   2,220,362       1,183,958 53.3%        1,014,714 45.7%        21,690 1.0%
1972   2,125,529       1,405,154 66.1%        708,568 33.3%          11,807 0.6%
1968   2,123,597       1,067,885 50.3%        806,659 38.0%          249,053** 11.7%
1964   2,091,606       911,1184 36%           1,170,848 56.0%        9,640 0.4%
1960   2,135,360       1,175,120 55.0%        952,358 44.6%          7,882 0.4%

^ Nader 18,531 0.8%; ##Perot 224,299 10.5%; #Perot 455,934 19.8%; *Anderson 111,639;
**Wallace 243,108

Outlook
Indiana has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. In 2000,
George W. Bush beat Al Gore 57% to 41%, losing only 9 of 92 counties. Bush won the
under 30 vote that year 64% to 34%, a bad sign for the Democrats looking to the future.
Indiana is considered a safe state for Bush this year.

Historically, the state does have a large enough Democratic base in the state to allow
Democrats to win. Indiana has the nation’s second largest percentage of manufacturing
workers and is full of blue-collar unions. This in part is how Democrats won the
governorship and how Sen. Evan Bayh (D) won his Senate seat by an overwhelmingly
large margin in 2000.

Despite that, Indiana’s cultural conservatism has kept it Republican in the presidential
elections for a generation. Indiana is usually not visited by presidential candidates and
neither candidate has advertised here this year.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 1 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,414 (ranks #13)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 24
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                      DATE        MoE
61            33            *Selzer & Co.             9/29-10/3   3.2
54            39            American Research Group   9/16-20     4
                                          IOWA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 7
Polls Close: 10pm EST
Voting Age Population: 2,251,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 1,892,731; Registered Democrats: 581,675; Registered
Republicans: 591,000; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 720,056 (Oct. 01,
2004 Source: Secretary of State)

*Check back closer to election for updated figures. Last day to register is Oct. 23, 2004.
If you include inactive voters there are 2,064,423 total registered voters in the state.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   1,315,563       634,373 48.2%          638,517 48.5%          42,673^ 3.2%
1996   1,234,075       492,644 40.0%          620,258 50.3%          121,173## 10.0%
1992   1,354,607       504,891 37.3%          586,353 43.3%          263,363# 19.4%
1988   1,225,614       545,355 44.5%          670,557 54.7%          9,702 .8%
1984   1,319,805       703,088 53.3%          605,620 45.9%          11,097 .8%
1980   1,317,661       676,026 51.3%          508,672 38.6%          132,963* 10.1%
1976   1,279,306       632,863 49.5%          619,931 48.5%          26,512 2.0%
1972   1,225,944       706,207 57.6%          496,206 40.5%          25,531 1.9%
1968   1,167,931       619,106 53.0%          476,699 40.8%          72,126** 6.2%
1964   1,184,539       449,148 37.9%          733,030 61.9%          2,361 .2%
1960   1,273,810       722,381 56.7%          550,565 43.2%          864    .1%

^Nader 29,374 2.2%; ##Perot 105,159 8.5%; #Perot 253,468 18.7%; *Anderson 115,633;
**Wallace 66,422

Outlook
Iowa has voted for the Democrat in each of the last four elections but the margin in 2000
makes it a clear battleground state. In the 1970s, the state was culturally conservative and
voted Republican but, in the 1980s, Iowa voted on its economic interests: farm prices
dropped dramatically and the state voted against Reagan both times. In 1988, it was
Michael Dukakis’ second-best state. In the 1990s, as the state boomed, it voted for
Clinton-Gore by large margins. In 2000, the state split like the country and went for Gore
by only 4,144 votes, dividing on both cultural and economic issues.

Because of the state’s small population and first-in-the-nation caucuses, local politics
play perhaps a larger role in Iowa’s presidential vote than in other states. Presidential
candidates are routinely asked to support ethanol subsidies as a benchmark of
commitment to the state. This year, growing concerns about the outsourcing of jobs and
the disappearance of family farms forced several of the Democratic primary candidates to
the right on some trade issues. On January 19th, 2004, the state gave John Kerry a come
from behind caucus victory that propelled his candidacy throughout the primaries.
Kerry’s team ran an impressive ground operation directed by GOTV guru Michael
Whouley and also touted an endorsement from the beret-wearing Christie Vilsack, wife
of (neutral) Governor Tom Vilsack (D). Even Howard Dean’s endorsement from popular
Sen. Tom Harkin was not enough to overcome the Kerry campaign’s combination of
momentum and mobilization.

Iowa has a strong pacifist streak and the state has been particularly hard hit by National
Guard deployments and troop deaths. According to Associated Press reports, since
September 11, more than 70% of Iowa’s 9,000 National Guard soldiers have been called
to active duty. In July 2004, the Iowa National Guard had 1,300 guardsmen on active
duty, including 300 troops in Iraq, 300 in Kosovo and 700 in Afghanistan (AP 7/30/04).
Five Iowa Guard soldiers have been killed in action.

The other major issue in Iowa continues to be the economy. The state lost 20,000 jobs in
2001 alone and it a low point in June 2003, down 42,600 jobs (1,477,900 in January 2001
to 1,435,300 in June 2003). On the upside, employment has rebounded somewhat to
1,449,800 jobs in August 2004 and the state’s unemployment rate is almost 1% below the
national average (5.4%) at 4.5%. Beyond the economic recovery, for President Bush,
the state’s more traditional/conservative values and the relatively large and well
organized anti-abortion movement may be the areas of key support.

Because of the 2000 margin, which surprised Republicans who had not expected to come
so close, both campaigns have spent enormous resources in the state. Both campaigns
have massive field staffs and are spending millions on television ads. They had each
visited seven times by September 2004 (not counting time Kerry spent there during the
primaries which is counted in the chart below). Bush-Cheney spent over $1 million to
run ads there from September 30 through October 13, which translates into 2,250 ads. For
the same period, Kerry-Edwards spent $1.2 million, for a whopping 2,313 ads. The
Republican-leaning 527 Progress for America Voter Fund spent $1 million in Iowa over a
single 15-day period from August 24 to September 8, a real indication in the relatively
cheap state. Counteracting those efforts are pro-Democrat groups like ACT, which has 8
offices, 20 paid staff and 50 paid canvassers in the state.

In terms of new voters, Iowa has 130,000 new voters and 81,000 signed up in 2004 alone.
Per the AP, Democratic voters signed up 48,561, a 9% increase. Republicans added only
6,487 voters, up less than 1%.

In 2000, Gore won by carrying the over-65 vote, the Catholic vote and was helped
massively by union turnout. For his part, Bush carried voters under 45 years old by 52 to
45, a reverse from nationwide trends. One indication of the state’s split: Gore actually
lost the vote on Election Day but prevailed because of his lead in the absentee ballot
count. For Bush to win the state this time, he will have to win more elderly voters and
hang on to the state’s conservative pacifists upset by the war in Iraq.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent

Campaign Contact Information
John Kerry
Colin Van Ostern
cell: 515 208 9428
office: 515 558 9580 ext 332
cvanostern@johnkerry.com

ACT
State Director: Jeff Link
Office: 515-244-3111
Cell: 515-778-7970

Comm. Director: Bo Berntsen
Office: 515-244-3111
Cell: 515-306-6923

Bush Cheney
Communications Director: Ann Marie Hauser
Office: 515-230-4808

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 7 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 24 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 2,493 (ranks #22)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 15
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls
BUSH           KERRY           POLL                    DATE        MoE
46             43              Harstead Research (D)   10/3-4      3.7
46             47              Univ. of Minnesota      9/27-10/3   4
49             44              Strategic Vision (R)    9/27-29     3
                                        KANSAS
Overview
Electoral College votes: 6
Polls Close: 9pm EST
Voting Age Population: 2,028,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 1,615,699; Registered Democrats: 441,269; Registered
Republicans: 742,903; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 431,527

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC            OTHER
2000   1,072,218      622,332 58.0%          399,276 37.2%         50,610^ 4.7%
1996   1,074,300      583,245 54.3%          387,659 36.1%         103,396## 10.0%
1992   1,157,335      449,951 39.0%          390,434 34.0%         316,950#      27.4%
1988   993,044        554,049 55.8%          422,636 42.6%         16,359 1.6%
1984   1,021,991      677,296 66.3%          333,149 32.6%         11,546 1.1%
1980   979,795        566,812 57.9%          326,150 33.3%         86,833*8.8%
1976   957,845        502,752 52.5%          430,421 44.9%         24,672 2.6%
1972   916,095        619,812 67.7%          270,287 29.5%         25,996 2.8%
1968   872,783        478,674 54.8%          302,996 34.7%         91,113**      10.5%
1964   857,901        386,579 45.1%          464,028 54.1%         7,294 0.8%
1960   928,825        561,474 60.4%          363,213 39.1%         4,138 0.5%

^ Nader 36,086 3.3%; ##Perot 92,639 8.6%; #Perot 312,358 27.0%; *Anderson 68,231;
**Wallace 88,921

Outlook
“We’re not in Kansas anymore!” may well be a slogan for Democrats on the presidential
campaign trail in the heartland. Indeed, 1964 was the last time Kansas went to a
Democrat and Lyndon Johnson narrowly won over Barry Goldwater. In 2000, Bush
carried 103 of the state’s 105 counties and beat Gore by 21 percentage points, while
Kansas’ native son Sen. Bob Dole beat Clinton 54 to 36% in 1996.

Some Democrats have managed to survive in this state and the most notable of them is
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, whose name was briefly floated for the VP slot on Kerry’s
ticket. Although a Democrat currently occupies one of the state’s four seats in House,
Democratic Senators have not been seen in Kansas since 1932.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Reform Party candidate.

Campaign Contact Information
Democratic Party of Kansas
Executive Director Patrick Murray (785)243-0425 ext. 104

Republican Party of Kansas
Executive Director Scott B. Poor (785) 234-3456

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 1 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 2,190 (ranks #24)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 11
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                     DATE      MoE
57            35            *American Research Group 9/15-18   4
                                       KENTUCKY
Overview
Electoral College votes: 8
Polls Close: 7:00 pm EST
Voting Age Population: 3,124,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 2,682,996; Registered Democrats: 1,582,532; Registered
Republicans: 927,528; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 172,936

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   1,544,187       872,492 56.5%          638,898 41.4%          32,797^ 2.1%
1996   1,388,708       623,283 44.9%          636,614 45.8%          128,811## 9.3%
1992   1,492,900       617,178 41.3%          665,104 44.6%          210,618# 14.1%
1988   1,332,517       734,281 55.8%          580,368 43.9%          7,868 0.3%
1984   1,369,345       821,702 60.0%          539,539 39.4%          8,104 0.6%
1980   1,294,627       635,274 49.1%          616,417 47.6%          42,936*3.3%
1976   1,167,142       531,852 45.6%          615,717 52.8%          19,573 1.6%
1972   1,067,499       676,446 63.4%          371,159 34.8%          19,894 1.8%
1968   1,055,893       462,411 43.8%          397,541 37.6%          195,941** 18.6%
1964   1,046,105       372,977 35.7%          669,659 64.0%          3,469 0.3%
1960   1,124,462       602,607 53.6%          521,855 46.4%          --     --

^Nader 23,192 1.5%; ##Perot 120,396 9.7%; #Perot 203,944; *Anderson 31,127; **Wallace
193,098

Outlook
Although Clinton carried this state by a narrow margin in 1996, Kentucky showed its
Republican roots run deep when it elected Bush over Gore by a 57-41% margin. Things
look no different this time around as Bush leads Kerry by nearly 20 points, according to a
late September poll. Republicans enjoy wide control of this state, from governorship to
the Senate and the 2003 election of Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher broke a record of
Democratic Governors that dates back to 1967. Rep. Ben Chandler, one of KY’s two
Democrats in the House, won his seat because of the vacancy left by Fletcher. Chandler
will be running for reelection on Nov. 2.

There is also an interesting Senate race between Republican incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning
and Democratic state Sen. Daniel Mongiardo. Bunning’s bid for reelection looked solid
until he started acting a bit strange. Bunning increased his personal security staff, walked
out of an interview with a news organization, compared Mongiardo to one of Saddam
Hussein’s sons, and accused his opponent of roughing up his wife (an accusation
Mongiardo’s staff denied). Bunning also insisted on debating Mongiardo via satellite and
refused to allow neutral observers into the Republican National Committee's TV studio in
Washington. Bunning’s campaign later admitted that he read his closing and opening
statements from a teleprompter. Encouraged by Bunning’s bizarre behavior, Democrats
have funneled an additional $200,000 into Mongiardo’s campaign. Although the playing
field may have been leveled for Mongiardo, it isn’t yet clear who will win.
Also on Nov. 2, Kentuckians will also choose whether to add a ban on same-sex marriage
to its constitution.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent


Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 2 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 2 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,692 (ranks #28)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 12
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls
BUSH          KERRY           POLL                       DATE          MoE
53            38              *Courier-Journal Bluegrass 9/10-15       3.5
57            39              *American Research Group 9/8-12          4
                                         LOUISIANA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 9
Polls Close: 9pm EST
Voting Age Population: 3,319,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 2,729,562; Registered Democrats: 1,572,594; Registered
Republicans: 632,430; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 524,538

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   1,765,656       927,871 52.6%          792,344 44.9%          45,441^ 2.5%
1996   1,783,959       712,586 39.9%          927,837 52.0%          143,536## 8.1%
1992   1,790,017       733,386 41.0%          815,971 45.6%          240,660# 13.4%
1988   1,628,202       883,702 54.3%          717,460 44.1%          27,040 1.7%
1984   1,706,822       1,037,299 60.8%        651,586 38.2%          17,937 1.0%
1980   1,548,591       792,853 51.2%          708,453 45.7%          47,285*3.1%
1976   1,278,439       587,446 46.0%          661,365 51.7%          29,628 2.3%
1972   1,051,491       686,852 65.3%          298,142 28.4%          66,497 6.3%
1968   1,097,450       257,535 23.5%          309,615 28.2%          530,300** 48.3%
1964   896,293         509,225 56.8%          387,068 43.2%          --     0.0%
1960   807,891         230,980 28.6%          407,339 50.4%          169,572 21.0%

^ Nader 20,473 1.2%; ##Perot 123,293 6.9%; #Perot 211,478; *Anderson 26,345; **Wallace
530,300

Outlook
At the moment, Louisiana has a slate of elected leaders that would make any Democrat
happy: a Democratic governor, two Democratic senators and an almost evenly-divided
delegation to the House of Representatives. But the state went solidly for Bush in 2000
and will almost certainly do so again this year.

At one point, the Kerry campaign targeted the state, hoping to ride the wave created by
Democrat Kathleen Blanco’s unexpected win in the March 2004 gubernatorial election.
Kerry sent staff to the state, visited five times and sent John Edwards to the state for his
first solo campaign trip as the vice presidential nominee. Louisiana was supposed to be
part of an ad buy beginning October 5, but the campaign decided at the end of September
that the state was probably not worth using limited resources to win.

So what made Louisiana go from safe Clinton to likely Republican? Part of the shift is
what was seen across the South in 2000: a cultural, conservative shift to the Republican
party. This can also be seen in the state’s recent referendum on the definition of marriage:
on September 18, 78% of the state voted for a ban on gay marriage (the initiative was
declared unconstitutional a few weeks later but is expected to pass again next time
around). The other major issue is a sharp divide in who votes for whom: Catholics tend
to vote Democratic while Protestants go for Republicans, blacks vote for Democrats
(Gore 92% to Bush’s 6%) while whites voted for Republicans (Bush’s 72% to Gore’s
26%). If turnout among blacks had been slightly higher in 2000 (35% instead of 29%
according to National Journal), Gore would have carried the state. But even with that
base, no poll has shown Kerry ahead of Bush in the state this year.

The most competitive race in the state is probably the race to fill the seat being vacated
by retiring Democratic Senator John Breaux. In Louisiana, all candidates run in a single
primary and, if no one gets 50% on November 2, the top two vote-getters, regardless of
party, will meet in a December 4th runoff. Republicans cleared their field for Vitter,
virtually guaranteeing him a spot in the runoff. The Democratic establishment, including
Breaux, is rallying around Chris John. The race is a toss-up

Democrats like Blanco have had success in the state by turning out black and lower-
income voters in large numbers, winning sizeable margins in New Orleans and making
in-roads in traditional Republican areas and among conservative whites men referred to
the state as “Bubbas”. If either John or Kerry hope to prevail, both will need
demographics like that.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 3 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 5 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,723 (ranks #8)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 16
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                     DATE                 MoE
50             42             *American Research Group 9/17-21              4
53             36             Marketing Research       8/31-9/2             4
                                         MAINE
Overview
Electoral College votes: 4
Polls Close: 8pm EST
Voting Age Population: 1,019,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 957,485; Registered Democrats: 297,831; Registered
Republicans: 274,727; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 384,927 (source:
January 2004, Secretary of State Website)
* Registration is allowed on Election Day

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   651,817         286,616 44.0%          319,951 49.1%          45,250^ 6.9%
1996   605,897         186,378 30.8%          312,788 51.6%          106,731## 17.6%
1992   679,499         206,504 30.4%          263,420 38.8%          209,575#      30.8%
1988   555,035         307,031 55.0%          243,569 44.0%          4,335 1.0%
1984   553,144         336,500 60.8%          214,515 38.8%          2,129 0.4%
1980   523,011         238,522 45.6%          220,974 42.3%          63,515*12.1%
1976   483,216         236,320 48.9%          232,279 48.1%          14,617 3.0%
1972   417,042         256,458 61.5%          160,584 38.5%          --     --
1968   392,936         169,254 43.1%          217,312 55.3%          6,370**1.6%
1964   380,965         118,701 31.2%          262,264 68.8%          --     --
1960   421,767         240,608 57.0%          181,159 43.0%          --     --

^ Nader 37,1275.7%; ##Perot 85,970 14.2%; #Perot 206,820; *Anderson 53,327; **Wallace
6,370

Outlook
With only four Electoral College votes, Maine is not exactly a treasure trove for
presidential candidates. But, with its contrarian nature (since 1948, no state has voted for
the losing side in a presidential more times) and divided society (the thriving coast versus
the contracting interior), Maine looks like an inviting target to both parties.

Part of Maine’s attraction is also its way of assigning Electoral College votes: Like
Nebraska, Maine assigns one elector to the winner in each congressional district, not
simply winner take all. In 2000, Bush lost the second district by only one%: if that were
reversed, he would have won 272 electoral votes instead of 271.

Maine has a commitment to environmental protection, an aversion to cultural change and
a rapidly changing economy. The coast line is booming with biotech, organic farming,
and tourism. The interior, however, is contracting as paper mills and shoe factories
disappear. In the past four years, the state saw a drop in total jobs (from 609,800 in
January 2001 to 603,800 in April 2003) and but has since rebounded to 614,900 jobs in
August 2004. In manufacturing jobs, however, the change has been unidirectional: from
78,500 jobs in January 2001 to 61,000 in August 2004. The unemployment rate in August
2004 was 4.5%, under the national average of 5.4%.
Perhaps remembering 2000’s almost-win, the Bush-Cheney campaign targeted the sate
early on, sending field staff and visiting personally. As late as September, the Bush twins
Jenna and Barbara stumped for their father in a trip to University of Maine and the
campaign continued to advertise through the end of September. The Bush family
compound in Kennebunkport, ME also gives Bush grounding in the state and publicity
whenever he visits it.

The Kerry effort in the state is more focused on keeping the state in the win column. The
team is confident of Kerry’s popularity in the southern part of the state and has been
concentrating on turning out voters in the north. Perhaps underscoring its overall comfort
level in the state, Kerry has not visited since February, leaving it to his vice presidential
candidate. Bush, by contrast, visited that crucial second district on September 23 for a
rally in Bangor.

This intensity can been seen the swing 2nd district: Veterans make up 13% of the US
voting population but are 16% of the electorate in the second district. Recognizing the
role vets may play there, both campaigns have major operations targeting the group. On
September 14, for example, the Kerry campaign sent Vietnam vet and former Sen. Max
Cleland to Bangor. An hour later, the Bush campaign held a Veterans for Bush event
across town.

Both campaigns are on the air in the state. Before Labor Day, the campaigns spent a
combined $1.5 million on television spots. Post Labor Day through the second week of
October, each side spent approximately $200,000 a week, saturating the airwaves.

This year’s vote may or may not be complicated by Maine’s independent streak. In 1992,
more Maine voters chose Ross Perot than George H.W. Bush. In 2000, Ralph Nader
received 37,127 votes (5.7%), which was more than Al Gore’s margin of victory
(33,335). Nader is on the ballot again this year.

There are two referenda on Maine’s ballot this year: one to cap property taxes and the
other on bear-baiting. It is unclear how those initiatives will affect voter turnout.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 3 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,002 (ranks #41)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 7
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                   DATE      MoE
39             42             *Strategic Marketing   9/23-27   5
42             45             *Critical Insights     9/10-23   4.5
                                       MARYLAND
Overview
Electoral College votes: 10
Polls Close: 8pm EST
Voting Age Population: 4,131,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 2,774,613; Registered Democrats: 1,555,569; Registered
Republicans: 832,616; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 386,428

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC              OTHER
2000   2,020,480       813,797 40.3%          1,140,782 56.5%         65,901^ 3.3%
1996   1,780,870       681,530 38.3%          966,207 54.3%           133,133## 7.5%
1992   1,985,046       707,094 35.6%          988,571 49.8%           289,381# 14.6%
1988   1,714,358       876,167 51.0%          826,304 48.0%           11,887 1.0%
1984   1,675,873       879,918 52.5%          787,935 47.0%           8,020 0.5%
1980   1,540,496       680,606 44.2%          726,161 47.1%           133,729* 8.7%
1976   1,439,897       672,661 46.7%          759,612 52.8%           7,624 0.5%
1972   1,353,812       829,305 61.3%          505,781 37.4%           18,726 1.3%
1968   1,235,039       517,995 41.9%          538,310 43.6%           178,734**14.5%
1964   1,116,457       385,495 34.5%          730,912 65.5%           50     0.0%
1960   1,055,349       489,538 46.4%          565,808 53.6%           3      0.0%

^Nader 53,768 2.7%; ##Perot 115,812 6.5%; #Perot 281,414; *Anderson 119,537; **Wallace
178,734

Outlook
In the 1990s, Maryland became one of the most Democratic states in Presidential
elections. It was Bill Clinton's third-best state in 1992, fifth-best in 1996 and Al Gore's
fourth-best in 2000. This is due in part to the fact that 28% of Marylanders are African
American, the highest percentage of any state outside the Deep South. In the 2000
election, George W. Bush won the white vote in Maryland, 51% to 46%. But blacks,
casting one quarter of the total, voted 92% to 7% for Gore.

But while Maryland remains one of the nation’s most Democratic states with Rhode
Island, Massachusetts, and New York, all four interestingly elected Republican
Governors in 2002. Maryland had not chosen a Republican governor since 1966 until
Congressman Bob Ehrlich defeated Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend.

Incumbent Sen. Barbara Mikulski is seeking her fourth term running against Republican
State Sen. E.J. Pipkin. Mikulski is expected to win that race.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Populist Party candidate.


Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 12 (as of 9/23/04) (mostly bike rides at USSS training facility)
Kerry 2 (as of 10/11/04)
Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: none
Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,320 (ranks #37)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 12
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                     DATE     MoE
42            52            *Gonzales Research       10/1-5   3.5
43            52            *American Research Group 9/7-9    4
                                  MASSACHUSETTS
Overview
Electoral College votes: 12
Polls Close: 8pm EST
Voting Age Population: 4,946,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 2,172,651; Registered Democrats: 1,442,897; Registered
Republicans: 530,512; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 1,999,242

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC            OTHER
2000   2,702,984      878,502 32.5%          1,616,487 59.8%       208,001^7.7%
1996   2,556,785      718,107 28.1%          1,571,763 61.5%       266,915## 10.4%
1992   2,773,700      805,049 29.0%          1,318,662 47.5%       649,989#23.4%
1988   2,632,805      1,194,635 45.0%        1,401,415 53.0%       36,755 2.0%
1984   2,559,453      1,310,936 51.2%        1,239,606 48.4%       8,911 0.4%
1980   2,524,298      1,057,631 41.9%        1,053,802 41.7%       412,865* 16.4%
1976   2,547,558      1,030,276 40.4%        1,429,475 56.1%       87,807 3.5%
1972   2,458,756      1,112,078 45.2%        1,332,540 54.2%       14,138 0.6%
1968   2,331,752      766,844 32.9%          1,469,218 63.0%       95,690** 4.1%
1964   2,344,798      549,727 23.4%          1,786,422 76.2%       8,649 0.4%
1960   2,469,480      976,750 39.6%          1,487,174 60.2%       5,556 0.2%

^ Nader 173,564 17 6.4%##Perot 227,217 8.9%; #Perot 630,731; *Anderson 382,539; **Wallace
87,088

Outlook
It should come as a surprise to no one that Kerry is leading by a huge margin in his home
state of Massachusetts. This state, deemed by some as the East Coast’s liberal heartland,
is home to Sen. Ted Kennedy and one openly gay congressman, Rep. Barney Frank. All
of the state’s Senate and House representatives are Democrats and the sole Republican
with any serious clout is Governor Mitt Romney, who has also been mentioned as a
potential presidential candidate in 2008.

The only uncertainty surrounding Massachusetts and Nov. 2 is the question of what will
happen to Kerry’s Senate seat if he wins the Presidency. The Massachusetts state
legislature passed a bill that denies Gov. Romney the chance to appoint a successor in the
event that Kerry wins. Romney vetoed the bill but the legislature overrode his decision.
According to the new law, Kerry’s empty seat will remain vacant until a special election
is held, which would take place between 145 to 160 days after he is elected president.
This allows the state’s voters to choose a Democrat rather than allowing Romney to
choose a Republican.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 1 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 19 (as of 10/11/04) (not including Kerry’s 36 off days in the state)
Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: none
Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,322 (ranks #36)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 22
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 7

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                     DATE      MoE
27            64            *American Research Group 9/10-13   4
30            56            *Merrimack College       7/18-28   4.1
                                      MICHIGAN
Overview
Electoral College votes: 17
Polls Close: 9:00pm EST
Voting Age Population: 7,541,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters Total: 7,082,742 (As of 10/04 Source: Kelly Chesney, Media
Communications Office). Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC            OTHER
2000   4,232,711      1,953,139 46.1%        2,170,418 51.3%       109,154^ 2.6%
1996   3,848,844      1,481,212 38.5%        1,989,653 51.7%       377,979## 9.8%
1992   4,274,673      1,554,940 36.4%        1,871,182 43.8%       848,551# 9.8%
1988   3,669,163      1,965,486 54.0%        1,675,783 46.0%       27,894 1.0
1984   3,801,658      2,251,571 59.2%        1,529,638 40.2%       20,449 0.6%
1980   3,909,725      1,915,225 49.0%        1,661,532 42.5%       332,968* 8.5%
1976   3,653,749      1,893,742 51.8%        1,696,714 46.4%       63,293 1.8%
1972   3,489,727      1,961,721 56.2%        1,459,435 41.8%       68,571 2.0%
1968   3,306,250      1,370,665 41.5%        1,593,082 48.2%       342,503** 10.3%
1964   3,203,102      1,060,152 33.1%        2,136,615 66.7%       6,335 0.2%
1960   3,318,097      1,620,428 48.8%        1,687,269 50.9%       10,400 0.3%

^ Nader 84,165 2%; ##Perot 336,670 8.7%; #Perot 824,813; *Anderson 275,223; **Wallace
331,968

Outlook
Although Michigan voted for Republicans in the 1970s and 1980s, it has swung back to
the Democrats in terms of presidential politics since 1992. In 2000, it was heavily
targeted by both sides but eventually gave Al Gore a margin of almost five%.

Until the mid-1990s, there was a clear split in the state: Detroit voted Democrat,
“outstate”, as the rest of the state is known, voted Republican. In the late 1990s,
however, those demographics began to shift as Detroit shrunk and its metro areas and the
rest of the state grew. This trend followed the general shift away from union vs.
management politics as Michigan moved towards more service-oriented jobs

Although it boomed in the 1990s, over the past four years, Michigan has experienced an
economic downturn, losing a total of 238,800 jobs (from 4,595,500 in January 2001 to
4,356,700 in August 2004). The state lost 142,600 manufacturing jobs alone, (848,100 in
January 2001 to 705,500 in August 2004), sparking furious discussion about outsourcing,
worker training and the future of Michigan’s economy.

The Bush-Cheney campaign has targeted the state on two levels: long-standing
conservative values important to the voters who live in the Grand Rapids area and new
found concerns about security (so-called “security moms”) important to voters across the
state. For its part, the Kerry campaign has focused on Kerry’s plans to create new jobs
and tried to capitalize on concern about the war in Iraq: 30 Michigan soldiers have died
as of October 6. Kerry has also been helped by the state’s Governor, Jennifer Granholm,
who has been an articulate and much-used surrogate, particularly on the economy.

Both campaigns have traveled the state extensively and spent big bucks on advertising.
The Michigan Campaign Finance Network reported that, through October 7, presidential
ad buys on broadcast TV totaled a (record) $28.2 million. According to the MCFN, Bush-
Cheney spent about $11.5m to Kerry’s $8.1. And in one week in October, from October
7-13, Kerry-Edwards spent $2.7 million to Bush-Cheney’s $2.8 million. Including
outside groups like the Democratic-leaning Media Fund and the DNC, however, the totals
reach Bush/allies $12 million and Kerry/allies $16.1 million.

Local parties are also focused on voter registration. The GOP says it has 105,000 new
registrants and the Democrats are actively organizing as well. As of early October, Bush
had visited the state 20 times to Kerry’s nine. Overall, the state has 302,707 new voters
(4.3%) since 2000.

The state’s ballot also contains a definition of marriage referendum, which may either
galvanize conservative voters or become a wedge issue the other way. The proposal
would make the “the union of one man and one woman” the only “agreement recognized
as a marriage or similar union for any purpose." Michigan is one of two states where
activists believe they have a real opportunity to defeat an anti-gay marriage initiative (the
other state is Oregon), mostly because of the exact wording: the Michigan language (like
that in Ohio) not only bans same-sex marriage but also prevents public institutions from
providing benefits to domestic partners. This widest-reaching ban has turned off some
otherwise neutral groups like labor unions, who fear the measure would hinder their
bargaining power. Recent polls suggest that voters are evenly split on the ban’s passage.

In 2000, Gore won the state largely by harnessing the power of the automotive and
teachers’ unions. In 2002, Granholm re-captured the governorship for Democrats by
winning a solid majority in Detroit, appealing to affluent Oakland County, and getting
union support from Flint, Saginow and Lansing despite low turnout. Granholm won
without winning blue-collar Macomb but it was crucial Gore in 2000. For Kerry to hold
the state, he needs to hold onto women, turn out Detroit and the unions in large numbers
like Gore and also make some inroads in more conservative areas like Macomb.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Independence Party candidate.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 9 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 9 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:
**Will probably rank #4 in total TV advertising dollars**
Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 2,159 (ranks #25)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 29
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                      DATE      MoE
50            48            Detroit Free Press        9/22-28   3.5
42            48            *Strategic Vision (R)     9/26-28   3
                                     MINNESOTA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 10
Polls Close: 9pm EST
Voting Age Population: 3,811,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters Total: 2,893,085. Voters do not register by party.
* Registration is allowed on Election Day

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC            OTHER
2000   2,438,685      1,109,659 45.5%        1,168,266 47.9%       160,760^ 6.6%
1996   2,192,640      766,476 35.0%          1,120,438 51.1%       59,997## 6.7%
1992   2,347,948      747,841 31.9%          1,020,997 43.5%       579,110# 24.7%
1988   2,096,790      962,337 46.0%          1,109,471 53.0%       24,982 1.0%
1984   2,084,449      1,032,603 49.5%        1,036,364 49.7%       15,482 0.8%
1980   2,051,980      873,268 42.6%          954,174 46.5%         224,538* 10.9%
1976   1,949,931      819,395 42.0%          1,070,440 54.9%       60,096 3.1%
1972   1,741,652      898,269 51.6%          802,346 46.1%         41,037 2.2%
1968   1,588,506      658,643 41.5%          857,738 54.0%         72,125** 4.5%
1964   1,554,462      559,624 36.0%          991,117 63.8%         3,721 0.2%
1960   1,541,887      757,915 49.2%          779,933 50.6%         4,039 0.2%

^ Nader 126,696 5.2%; ##Perot 52,222 5.8%; #Perot 562,506; *Anderson 174,990; **Wallace
68,931

Outlook
There was a point at which Minnesota was almost unquestionably Democratic, with a
commitment to progressive values that outstripped much of the rest of the country. The
state has not voted for a Republican since 1971 when it went for Richard Nixon over
George McGovern. In the 1990s, however, that began to shift: the election of reform
candidate and former pro-wrestler Jesse Ventura as Governor was one sign of the break
with tradition.

Perhaps more emblematic of the change in Minnesota’s political orientation was the
election of Republican Norm Coleman to the US Senate in 2002. Coleman was elected
after defeating former Vice President Walter Mondale, who stepped in after sitting Sen.
Paul Wellstone was tragically killed in a plane crash on October 25, just 11 days before
the election. Mondale and Wellstone represented the liberal/progressive Democratic-
Farmer-Labor party; Coleman, not to put too fine a point on it, voted for President Bush’s
tax cuts, and his win suggests a new sort of Minnesota voter. In 2000, Al Gore carried the
state by a narrow, two-point margin. As National Journal points, out, “For the first time
in half a century Minnesota cast a lower Democratic percentage for president than the
nation as a whole.”

Demographically, the Twin Cities are usually heavily Democratic in presidential years,
with Republicans traditionally carrying southern Minnesota and the areas north and west
of St. Cloud. The key swing area appears to be the so-called “Ventura Belt,” made up of
the growing suburbs outside of the Twin Cities core but still inside its media market.

The Bush-Cheney campaign is aggressively targeting voters in the Ventura Belt and is
working on turnout in more traditionally suburban areas. The concentration the suburbs,
where the church-going population skews Republican is probably key. If Bush can do just
slightly better there (he won 50 to 44 in 2000), he may carry the day.

For Kerry to hold the state, he needs to turn out the vote in the Twin Cities and run close
to even in the Ventura Belt. To do so, in late September the campaign moved extra
resources into the state (from no-win places like Virginia) and is being supplemented by
outside groups like ACT, which has more than 170 field workers in the state.

Because Minnesota is so competitive, it has seen a much larger proportion of television
advertising than in years past. The state is part of both campaigns’ core ad buys; For
example, from the week of October 7 through 13, Bush-Cheney spent $$952,274 to and
Kerry-Edwards spent $675,634 on television ads. The anti-Kerry Swift Boat Veterans for
Truth group has targeted its ads at the state. Voter registration is also up, with 100,000
new voters on the rolls

This year, Bush can point to fairly good job numbers: Minnesota was not as hard hit as
some states by the recession and has lost less than 20,000 jobs (2,695,400 in January
2001 to 2,676,300 in August 2004). The unemployment rate is also below the national
average (5.4%) at 4.8%. For Kerry, he may be able to take advantage of discomfort with
the war in Iraq and to tap into the traditions that have long-supported Democratic
candidates.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 5 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 7 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 3,432 (ranks #17)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 11
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                           DATE            MoE
43             50             Hart Research                  10/2-4          3.5
46             47             Strategic Vision (R)           9/26-28         3
                                      MISSISSIPPI
Overview
Electoral College votes: 6
Polls Close: 8pm EST
Voting Age Population: 2,120,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registration: 1,465,000 as of November 2004. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   994,184        572,844 57.6%          404,614 40.7%          16,726^ 1.7%
1996   893,857        439,838 49.2%          394,02244.1%           59,997## 6.7%
1992   981,793        487,793 49.7%          400,25840.8%           93,742#9.5%
1988   931,527        557,890 60.0%          363,92139.0%           9,716 1.0%
1984   941,104        582,377 61.9%          352,19237.4%           6,535 0.7%
1980   892,620        441,089 49.4%          429,28148.1%           22,250*2.5%
1976   769,361        366,846 47.7%          381,30949.6%           21,206 2.7%
1972   645,963        505,125 78.2%          126,78219.6%           14,056 2.2%
1968   654,509        88,516 13.5%           150,64423.0%           415,349**     63.5%
1964   409,146        356,528 87.1%          52,618 12.9%           --     0.0%
1960   298,171        73,561 24.7%           108,36236.3%           116,24839.0%

^8,122 Nader 0.8%; ##Perot 52,222 5.8%; #Perot 85,626; *Anderson 12,036; **Wallace 415,349

Outlook
The last time the state helped put a Democrat into the White House was 1976, when
Mississippi went to Jimmy Carter, 51 to 49%. Republicans hold the governorship (the
Governor is Haley Barbour, former head of the Republican National Committee) and
both Senate seats, the most famous of whom is former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott.
Two of Mississippi’s four House representatives are Democrats yet one of them, Gene
Taylor, was installed by the Democratic state legislature despite failing to win 50% of the
popular vote. Needless to say, Bush leads Kerry in this conservative state.

On Nov. 2, Mississippians will be voting on a proposal to limit marriage to a man and
woman.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Reform Party candidate.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 5,025 (ranks #6)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 16
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                     DATE     MoE
51             42             American Research Group 9/14-17   4
                                       MISSOURI
Overview
Electoral College votes: 11
Polls Close: 8pm EST
Voting Age Population: 4,297,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters Total: 3,511,894 as of August 4, 2004 primary. Voters do not register
by party

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   2,359,892      1,189,924 50.4%        1,111,138 47.1%        58,830^ 2.5%
1996   2,158,065      890,016 41.2%          1,025,935 47.5%        242,114## 11.2%
1992   2,391,565      811,159 33.9%          1,053,873 44.1%        526,533# 22.0%
1988   2,093,713      1,084,953 52.0%        1,001,619 48.0%        7,141 0.0%
1984   2,122,783      1,274,188 60.0%        848,583 40.0%          12     0.0%
1980   2,099,824      1,074,181 51.2%        931,182 44.3%          94,461* 4.5%
1976   1,953,600      927,443 47.5%          998,387 51.1%          27,770 1.4%
1972   1,855,803      1,153,852 62.2%        697,147 37.6%          4,804 0.2%
1968   1,809,502      811,932 44.9%          791,444 43.7%          206,126** 11.4%
1964   1,817,879      653,535 36.0%          1,164,344 64.0%        --     0.0%
1960   1,934,422      962,221 49.7%          972,20150.3% --        0.0%

^Nader 38,515 1.6%; ##Perot 217,188 10.1%; #Perot 518,741; *Anderson 77,920; **Wallace
206,126

Outlook
Missouri is as close as the US comes to a bellweather state: it has voted for the eventual
winner in every presidential election since 1900 except one (in 1956 it voted for
Stevenson). In 2000, it was nearly as close as the nation, with George Bush winning by a
narrow 3% margin after intense efforts on both sides.

For that reason, Missouri was supposed to be one of the campaign’s biggest swing states,
a top mark for both campaigns. The Bush campaign started airings ads in March,
spending as much as $256,000 a week in the state in May. The Democrats were also
active, with the DNC spending almost $3.4 million on television ads promoting Kerry in
the state. ACT says it registered 120,000 new voters. Bush visited eight times before the
middle of September and Kerry visited twelve times before September 15.

With less than four weeks to go, however, the Kerry campaign pulled its ads slated to
begin October 5. The campaign insists it still considers Missouri a battleground, and
indeed it has some 70-odd paid staff members in the state according to the DNC. But the
crucial advertising money has essentially dried up: the last Kerry ad aired before the
Democratic convention and the last DNC-funded ad ran September 4. Sensing the shift,
the Bush-Cheney campaign reduced its buy to only $109,000 for the week ending
October 3 and only $60,000 for the week ending October 8. By October 15, both
campaigns were off the air.
Missouri could have been more competitive for several reasons. First, it has a large union
background, evidenced by the career of Congressman Dick Gephardt of St. Louis.
Second, it lost a significant number of jobs, from 2,737,900 in January 2001 to a low of
2,673,700 in July 2003 (64,200 total). Jobs have rebounded to 2,709,000 (net loss 28,900)
but its unemployment rate is above the national average at 5.5%. Third, it is paying
heavily for the war in Iraq: as John Kerry pointed out in the second presidential state held
at Washington University in St. Louis, if Missouri’s National Guard were a country, it
would be the third-largest member of the coalition in Iraq. Missouri has 4,581 troops
called up as of September 22, more than the current third-largest member, Italy, which
has 3,120 troops in Iraq.

So why is Missouri drifting Republican? In recent years, Democrats have done well in
the areas of St. Louis and Kansas City but have been unable to make inroads outside of
cities. Of the 103 counties outside the two big metro areas, Bush carried 95 and Gore
eight. Democrats have also been unable to keep those voters who move out of the metro
areas or to reach out to more conservative voters in rural communities.

If Kerry has essentially ceded the state, the more competitive races will be for Governor
and Senate. For Governor, current Republican Secretary of State Matt Blunt (son of
Congressman Roy Blunt) is running against Democratic Auditor Claire McCaskill. For
Senator, Democratic Treasurer Nancy Farmer is hoping to unseat Republican Kit Bond
Treasurer Nancy Farmer. In both races, the Republican will likely prevail, but the
contests are certainly nasty.
.
Finally, shadowing all of the races is a lawsuit regarding how the state will treat
provisional ballots. That suit is expected to be decided before Election Day, potentially
creating controversy over the results.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.


Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,581 (ranks #10)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 17
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 4

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                           DATE           MoE
50             44             American Research Group        9/16-19        4
49             42             Research 2000                  9/13-16        3.5
                                      MONTANA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 3
Polls Close: 10pm EST
Voting Age Population: 702,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: 461,000 as of November 2002. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results
         TOTAL        REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC            OTHER
2000     410,997      240,178 58.4%          137,126 33.4%         33,693^ 8.2%
1996     407,261      179,652 44.1%          167,922 41.2%         59,687## 14.7%
1992     410,611      144,207 35.1%          154,507 37.6%         111,897# 27.2%
1988     365,674      190,412 52.0%          168,936 46.0%         6,326 2.0%
1984     384,377      232,450 60.5%          146,742 38.2%         5,185 1.3%
1980     363,952      206,814 56.8%          118,032 32.4%         39,106*10.8%
1976     328,734      173,703 52.8%          149,259 45.4%         5,772 1.8%
1972     317,603      183,976 57.9%          120,197 37.8%         13,430 4.3%
1968     274,404      138,835 50.6%          114,117 41.6%         21,452** 7.8%
1964     278,628      113,032 40.6%          164,246 58.9%         1,350 0.5%
1960     277,579      141,841 51.1%          134,891 48.6%         847    0.3%

^Nader 24,437 5.9%; ##Perot 55,229 13.6%; #Perot 107,225; *Anderson 29,281; **Wallace
20,015
Outlook
From the vast eastern stretches of plains and plateaus to the Rocky Mountain ranges in
the West, hope for a Kerry win of Montana is nowhere to be found. Democrats have won
the state in some presidential elections (for example, 1992, 1984, 1972 etc.), but Bush
swept the state in a landslide win—58 to 33%. Current polls show Bush leading Kerry by
nearly 30 points.

From 1952 to 1988 Montana regularly sent Democrats into the Senate. However this
trend tapered off after1992, when the Clinton administration’s environmental policies
became enormously unpopular in the state. The governor and sole House Representative
are Republicans and a Democrat and a Republican represent the state in the Senate.

On Nov. 2 Montanans will be voting on a gay marriage Constitutional Initiative that will
prohibit marriage between persons of the same sex. It is expected to pass easily. Voters
will also be voting on proposition that decriminalizes marijuana for medical purposes.
The measure would create a statewide registry so that law enforcement can monitor the
situation and would retain other restrictions on marijuana for non-medical purposes. The
measure is expected to pass with relatively little opposition.

Former Montana Gov. Marc Racicot is now the National Campaign Chairman for Bush-
Cheney ‘04.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Reform Party candidate.
Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: none
Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,273 (ranks #38)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 4
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls
BUSH          KERRY           POLL                     DATE      MoE
54            36              *Mason-Dixon             9/20-22   4
60            32              *American Research Group 9/7-9     4
                                       NEBRASKA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 5
Polls Close: 9pm EST
Voting Age Population: 1,298,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters Total: 1,083,544; Registered Democrats: 381,991; Registered
Republicans: 543,935; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 157,618

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   697,019         433,862 62.2%          231,780 33.3%          31,377^ 4.5%3
1996   677,415         363,467 53.7%          236,761 35.0%          77,187## 11.4%
1992   737,546         343,678 46.6%          216,864 29.4%          177,004# 24.0%
1988   661,465         397,956 60.0%          259,235 39.0%          4,274 1.0%
1984   652,090         460,054 70.6%          187,866 28.8%          4,170 0.6%
1980   640,854         419,937 65.5%          166,851 26.0%          54,066* 8.5%
1976   607,668         359,705 59.2%          233,692 38.5%          14,271 2.3%
1972   576,289         406,298 70.5%          169,991 29.5%          --     --
1968   536,851         321,163 59.8%          170,784 31.8%          44,904** 8.4%
1964   584,154         276,847 47.4%          307,307 52.6%          --     --
1960   613,095         380,553 62.1%          232,542 37.9%          --     --

^Nader 24,540 3.5%; ##Perot 71,278 10.5%; #Perot 174,104; *Anderson 44,993; **Wallace
44,904

Outlook
Bush won Nebraska 62 to 33% in 2000, so it’s no surprise that neither candidate has paid
much attention to the state. In 2002, Nebraska’s Republican Governor Mike Johanns and
Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel were reelected by landslide margins and the state boasts
three Republican Representatives. And although state Sen. Ben Nelson is a Democrat, he
seems to stay clear of reminding voters of his party’s roots.

Of note is the fact that Nebraska joins Maine in being the only two states without a
winner take all system, making it possible, though unlikely, that the state could split its
electoral votes between Bush and Kerry. Like Main, Nebraska assigns one elector to the
winner in each congressional district, not simply winner take all.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: none
Kerry-Edwards: none
Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,413 (ranks #33)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 14
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                     DATE     MoE
61            30            *American Research Group 9/9-12   4
                                        NEVADA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 5
Polls Close: 10 pm EST
Voting Age Population: 1,660,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 945,981; Registered Democrats: 383,651; Registered
Republicans: 382,630; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 179,700 (August
2004, Secretary of State Website)

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   608,970         301,575 49.5%          279,978 46.0%          27,417^ 4.5%
1996   464,279         199,244 42.9%          203,974 43.9%          61,061## 13.2%
1992   506,318         175,828 34.7%          189,148 37.4%          141,342# 28.0%
1988   350,067         206,040 59.0%          132,738 38.0%          11,289 3.0%
1984   286,667         188,770 65.8%          91,655 32.0%           6,242 2.2%
1980   247,885         155,017 62.5%          66,666 26.9%           26,202*10.6%
1976   201,876         101,273 50.2%          92,479 45.8%           8,124 4.0%
1972   181,766         115,750 63.7%          66,016 36.3%           --     0.0%
1968   154,218         73,188 47.5%           60,598 39.3%           20,432**      13.2%
1964   135,433         56,094 41.4%           79,339 58.6%           --     0.0%
1960   107,267         52,387 48.8%           54,880 51.2%           --     0.0%

^15,008 Nader 2.5%; ##Perot 43,986 9.5%; #Perot 132,580; *Anderson 17,651; **Wallace
20,432

Outlook
Nevada is a rapidly changing state: it grew 66% between 1990 and 2000, on top of 50.1%
growth between 1980-1990. As one Knight Ridder article put it, “In the four years since
George W. Bush beat Al Gore by about 22,000 votes in Nevada, the state has added
nearly 15 times that many people.” Nevada skews Republican, but all these new people
present Democrats with an opportunity to win the state.

Critical to both parties are two things: one issue and one campaign tactic.

The issue is storing nuclear waste in Yucca Mountain. In 1987, Congress chose the site
for the storage of nuclear waste and Nevada’s politicians have been fighting the choice
ever since. In the 1990s, President Clinton’s pledge to veto any moves towards storing
the waste in Yucca was critical to carrying the state two times. In 2000, George W. Bush
capitalized on a statewide trend towards Republicans (who won all six statewide offices
in 1998) and carried the state without promising a veto. He promised to veto a temporary
storage site in the state but made no such promise about a permanent one. In February
2002, he designated Yucca Mountain as the permanent site. John Kerry opposes
permanent storage of the waste at Yucca Mountain but has been unable to make Bush’s
actions the key issue. Although voters say they care deeply about the issue, Kerry has not
been particularly effective in drawing the distinction. If he can do so, he may swing some
votes
The campaign tactic is turnout. Because Nevada has added so many potential voters, it is
a real challenge for the parties to register them to vote and then turn them out on Election
Day. Democrats have the most to gain from new, Democrat-leaning immigrants and
lower income workers attracted by well paying union jobs in the tourism industry. To
achieve this, the Kerry campaign, ACT and several labor unions are engaged in a massive
turnout operation. The AFL-CIO says it has identified 60,000 union voters in Clark
County. These efforts are being supported by a massive Spanish-language advertising
campaign being conducted by the New Democrat Network and the Democratic National
Committee and may be helped by interest in a ballot initiative that would raise the
minimum wage. The turnout question for Democrats is whether they can register enough
new voters by Election Day to take advantage of the changing demographics.

For Republicans, the turnout game is largely one of base politics. In 2000, Bush won by
carrying the Republican areas of the state outside Clark County (where Las Vegas is
located and 69% of the population lives) by enough to off-set Gore’s margin inside Clark
(51.3% to 44.7%). For Bush to carry the state this year, he needs to mobilize those same
voters in numbers to offset new Democrats. To do so, Bush has been advertising in large
amounts, particularly in traditionally Republican Washoe County, where Lake Tahoe and
Reno are located. Bush can also point to good economic numbers: 88,900 new jobs
(1,050,100 in January 2001 to 1,139,000 in August 2004) and an unemployment rate of
only 4%, well below the national average of 5.4%.

A final group that both campaigns are trying to turnout a final population: veterans.
Veterans are 16% of the state's adult population and have grown 30.8% since 1990. To
try to reach these voters, both campaigns have their “Veterans for…” operations in high
gear, including visits by vets like Max Cleland.

In terms of new voters, Nevada has added 231,688 voters since 2000 (25%), and Clark
County represents 150,000 of those. Democrats increased their numbers by 95,027, a rise
of 33%. Republicans added 82,664 voters, a gain of 30.5%. Nonaffiliated voters rose
35%, with a gain of 36,474 people. Clark has

Both campaigns are advertising heavily in the state and have made multiple visits: From
July 30 through August 23, Reno was the top TV market in the country for all
advertising. Through the first week of October, Nevada markets were included in the $14
million spent by Bush and Kerry and are also an air war target for NDN, the DNC and
Swift Boat Veterans for Truth. From October 7 through 13, Kerry-Edwards spent
$562,666 to Bush-Cheney’s $889,364 (which both represent $200K increases over the
previous week, suggesting a highly competitive atmosphere). Nevada is a Republican
state with Libertarian roots, but Democrats hope changing demographics will make it
competitive through Election Day.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 3 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 6 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 961 (ranks #43)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 3
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 4

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                        DATE      MoE
48            44            Belden Russonello Stewart   9/20-28   4
53            43            CNN/USA Today/Gallup        9/18-21   5
                                  NEW HAMPSHIRE
Overview
Electoral College votes: 4
Polls Close: 8pm EST
Voting Age Population: 981,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters Total:1,182,816; Registered Democrats: 206,450; Registered
Republicans: 245,305; Registered Unaffiliated/Minor Parties/Undeclared: 731,061
(source September 14, 2004 primary information, no update until after Election Day)
* Registration is allowed on Election Day

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC            OTHER
2000   569,081        273,559 48.1%          266,348 46.8%         29,174^ 5.1%
1996   499,175        196,532 39.4%          246,214 49.3%         56,429## 11.3%
1992   537,943        202,484 37.6%          209,040 38.9%         126,419# 23.6%
1988   451,074        281,537 62.0%          163,696 36.0%         5,841 1.0%
1984   389,066        267,051 68.6%          120,395 30.9%         1,620 .5%
1980   383,990        221,705 57.7%          108,864 28.4%         53,421*13.9%
1976   339,618        185,935 54.7%          147,635 43.5%         6,048 1.8%
1972   334,055        213,724 64.0%          116,435 34.9%         3,896 1.1%
1968   297,298        154,903 52.1%          130,589 43.9%         11,806** 4.0%
1964   288,093        104,029 36.1%          184,064 63.9%         0      0
1960   295,761        157,989 53.4%          137,772 46.6%         0      0

^ Nader 22,198 3.9%; ##Perot 48,390 9.7%; #Perot 121,337; *Anderson 49,693; **Wallace
11,173

Outlook
On its face, New Hampshire is an unlikely target state for Democrats: it has a strong
Libertarian streak, a state law banning income taxes and the motto, “Live Free or Die.”
But Bill Clinton won twice here and Al Gore lost by less than two% (7,211 votes). That
margin was significantly smaller than either campaign expected, making the state a target
for both candidates this year.

For Bush-Cheney, there is some natural cultural affinity from traditional Republicans on
taxes, abortion and the fierce dedication to local control over budgets, education and
services. The state has also boomed in recent years, adding new high-tech jobs to replace
the old mills, and its unemployment rate in August 2004 was only 3.7%, nearly two
points under the national average of 5.4%. But New Hampshire is not particularly fond
of President Bush himself: this is the state that almost upset his march to the 2000
nomination, voting heavily for Sen. John McCain, 49% to 30%. New Hampshire is also
environmentally conscious and has been disappointed by some Bush administration
plans.

Kerry therefore has a window of opportunity which he and Campaign Chairwoman and
former NH Governor Jeanne Shaheen have worked to exploit. Most of New Hampshire
receives Boston television, and voters also know him from the recent primary process
when New Hampshire cemented Kerry’s lead. The demographics of Democrats in the
state also help: as National Journal wrote, “Once upon a time the typical Democratic
primary voters (sic) here was a textile mill worker; now she is more likely to be an
assistant professor,” one group of voter Kerry attracts. To win, however, Kerry needs (a)
to turn out Dems in huge numbers and (b) to make inroads among the Independents, who
are 37.7% of the electorate and already have a history of turning away from George
Bush.

Both campaigns have spent lavishly to convince voters. In early October, WMUR station
manager Jeff Bartlett told a local reporter that the campaigns were running about 60 ads
per day and predicted a rise to around 200 in the last two weeks of the month. From
September 30 to October 13, Kerry-Edwards spent $375K to Bush-Cheney’s almost
$500K. Further, that amount does not include money being spent in the more-expensive
Boston market. On September 23, the DCCC booked $660,000 worth of ads scheduled to
run there in the final seven days of the campaign. Bush and Kerry have both visited, and
Kerry brought actor Michael J. Fox along to focus on the swing vote issue of stem-cell
research in the state on October 4.

New voters have been attracted at a slower rate than other battlegrounds. The state has
added 18,793 new voters for a 2.6% rise. Democratic voters have grown slightly more,
rising 3.7%, a gain of 7,292 people. Republicans grew 478, just 0.2%.

Unlike most states where the cities vote Democrat, the two big cities in New Hampshire,
Manchester and Nashua, usually vote Republican and Democratic voters tend to be in the
state capital (Concord) and in the university towns. If Kerry alters this pattern only
slightly, he can win this time. In 2000, Gore pulled his top staff out of the state in early
October and still came very close to winning its 4 Electoral College votes. Those four EC
votes would have put him over the top, a fact lost on neither campaign.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 5 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 15 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,364 (ranks #34)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 3
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                           DATE            MoE
45 47    *Research 2000            10/6     4.4
47 47   *American Research Group   10/3-5   4
                                      NEW JERSEY
Overview
Electoral College votes: 15
Polls Close: 8pm EST
Voting Age Population: 6,507,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 4,655,852; Registered Democrats: 1,170,475; Registered
Republicans: 900,969; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 2,584,408 (National
Journal July 10, 2003)

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN              DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   3,187,226       1,284,173 40.3%         1,788,850 56.1%        114,203^3.6%
1996   3,075,807       1,103,078 35.9%         1,652,329 53.7%        320,400## 10.4%
1992   3,343,594       1,356,865 40.6%         1,436,206 43.0%        550,523# 16.4%
1988   3,099,553       1,743,192 56.0%         1,320,352 43.0%        36,009 1.0%
1984   3,217,862       1,933,630 60.1%         1,261,323 39.2%        22,909 0.7%
1980   2,975,684       1,546,557 52.0%         1,147,364 38.6%        281,763* 9.4%
1976   3,014,472       1,509,688 50.1%         1,444,653 47.9%        60,131 2.0%
1972   2,997,229       1,845,502 61.6%         1,102,211 36.8%        49,516 1.6%
1968   2,875,395       1,325,467 46.1%         1,264,206 44.0%        285,722** 9.9%
1964   2,847,663       964,174 33.9%           1,868,231 65.6%        15,258 0.5%
1960   2,773,111       1,363,324 49.2%         1,385,415 50.0%        24,372 0.8%

^Nader 94,554 3.0%; ##Perot 262,134 8.5%; #Perot 521,829; *Anderson 234,632; **Wallace
262,187

Outlook
Before 1980, New Jersey was more or less considered to be a swing state. In the 1980s,
the suburban masses tended Republican. However, since 1995, the suburban tendency
and has been predominantly Democratic. In fact, in the 2000 elections, neither party
targeted the New Jersey, as it was believed to be too strongly Democratic to justify
spending valuable campaign dollars on expensive New York TV. Al Gore won the state
easily in 2000. For Democrats, NJ (with its 15 electoral votes) is now considered a must-
win state. If Kerry were to lose New Jersey in 2004, then it might be taken as a symbol
that he already lost the election in entirety.

Bush is scheduled to visit the state on October 18, though the visit is unlikely to affect his
chances in the state. Kerry is expected to carry the state even though some September and
October polls showed Bush and Kerry coming close to even.

With the acknowledgement that this race may be closer than originally anticipated, both
campaigns are focusing new attention on the state. Edwards has taken a few extended
trips in late September/early October. Cheney is making his first trip to NJ in mid-
October. However, although there will surely be more public relations efforts in the state,
neither campaign is expected to spend serious campaign dollars in NJ.
Kerry’s campaign in New Jersey may have been weakened in part due to the scandal
surrounding Gov. Jim McGreevy (D). McGreevy, whose administration had a number of
ethical scandals, stunned voters when he announced on August 12 that he would resign,
confessing that he is a “gay American.” Despite his announcement, McGreevy will not
leave office until November 15.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04) **scheduled to visit the week of October 18
Kerry 3 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 3,591 (ranks #15)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 24
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 4

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                         DATE          MoE
41            47            Eagleton-Rutgers             10/1-6        4.1
46            49            Quinnipiac                   10/1-4        3.4
                                     NEW MEXICO
Overview
Electoral College votes: 5
Polls Close: 9pm EST
Voting Age Population: 1,373,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 1,042,864; Registered Democrats: 530,324; Registered
Republicans: 335,139; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 177,401 (source:
9/30/04 Secretary of State Website)

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   598,605        286,417 47.8%          286,783 47.9%          25,369^ 4.2%
1996   556,074        232,751 41.9%          273,495 49.2%          49,828## 8.8%
1992   569,986        212,824 37.3%          261,617 45.9%          95,545#16.8%
1988   521,287        270,341 52.0%          244,497 47.0%          6,449 1.0%
1984   514,370        307,101 59.7%          201,769 39.2%          5,500 1.1%
1980   456,971        250,779 54.9%          167,826 36.7%          38,366* 8.4%
1976   418,409        211,419 50.5%          201,148 48.1%          5,842 1.4%
1972   386,241        235,606 61.0%          141,084 36.5%          9,551 2.5%
1968   327,350        169,692 51.8%          130,081 39.7%          27,577** 8.5%
1964   328,645        132,838 40.4%          194,015 59.0%          1,792 0.6%
1960   311,107        153,733 49.4%          156,027 50.2%          1,347 0.4%

^ Nader 21,251 3.6%; ##Perot 32,257 5.8%; #Perot 91,895; *Anderson 29,459; **Wallace
25,737

Outlook
Although Florida’s 537 votes receives most of the attention, the margin in New Mexico
was even less: a miniscule 366 votes in favor of Gore. Also as in Florida, there were
some major voting problems: at one point George Bush was leading by four votes when
officials discovered that a fax had been misread as 640 instead of the correct 120, giving
Bush 500 more votes than he received. When this error was corrected, Gore gained the
500 votes, enough to win the state. Since then, 56,312 new voters have registered in the
state, enough to put it firmly in the toss-up category.

New Mexico may trend slightly Democrat: (a) its immigrant population has grown
enormously in the past several years; (b) it has a Democratic governor in fmr. Clinton
Energy Secretary Bill Richardson who is determined to carry his state for his party; and
(c) as in Nevada, Democratic 527s like ACT and labor unions have placed massive
emphasis on registering new voters. The New Democrat Network has also targeted the
state, spending a portion of its $5 million advertising budget there. Both campaigns are
spending heavily: for the week of October 7 through 13, Bush-Cheney spent $576,324 to
Kerry-Edwards’ $718,083.

In terms of new voters, Voter rolls grew by 100,793, or 9.6%. Republicans increased
28,079, or 9%. Democrats added 37,937, or 7.7%. Independents grew 34,874 or 30.1%,
reports the AP.
But it is unclear whether those new voters will turnout and, most importantly, who they
will vote for. Adding to the confusion is New Mexico’s early voting, which allows
ballots to be cast beginning October 5. Republicans have been actively courting early and
absentee voters, who may represent enough votes to overcome whatever happens on Nov.
2 itself. Bush-Cheney can also point to job growth in the state, which has gained jobs
steadily over the past four years: 753,200 in January 2001 to 793,100 in August 2004 (a
gain of 39,900 total). Republican 527s like Progress for America Voter Fund have run
ads critical of Kerry on national security. The Bush team has also poured television
money into the state and tried to reach out to Spanish-speakers through the Viva Bush
program. (The Kerry variant is Unidos con Kerry.)

A further complication: the role of the Green Party in the state. Ralph Nader won 21,251
votes in 2000 and, after legal machinations, is on the ballot again this year. Greens play a
role in statewide politics already, affecting House races and winning more than votes than
Nader in the 2002 gubernatorial contest (26,465). It remains to be seen how the Greens
will affect this year’s vote, who are on the ballot in the form of Steve Cobb.

The state has a mix of descendents of Spanish colonial families, ancient Indian
populations, newer Mexican immigrants and more recent English-speaking culture.
Demographically, Democrats do well in the northern areas of Santa Fe and Taos while
Republicans dominate the southern areas, especially those eastern ones known as “Little
Texas.” Albuquerque, Las Cruces and Silver City are swing areas, with immigrants who
are cultural conservatives and but more economically liberal. Both campaigns need to
pick up swing support to win.

A great quote: Barbara Richardson, on whether Bill Richardson will run for president in
2008, said, "I'll tell you what I tell him. 'That's another life and another wife.' Honest to
God. Not my bag."

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 4 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 9 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,195 (ranks #40)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 5
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls
BUSH   KERRY   POLL                   DATE     MoE
50     47      CNN/USA Today/Gallup   10/3-6   4
45     49      Hart Research (D)      10/2-4   3.5
43     46      Research & Polling     10/1-3   3
                                      NEW YORK
Overview
Electoral College votes: 31
Polls Close: 9pm EST
Voting Age Population: 14,657,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 11,246,362; Registered Democrats: 5,255,521; Registered
Republicans: 3,132,161; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 2,858,680
(National Journal July 15, 2003)

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC            OTHER
2000   6,821,999      2,403,374 35.2%        4,107,697 60.2%       310,928^ 4.6%
1996   6,316,129      1,933,492 30.6%        3,756,177 59.5%       626,460## 9.9%
1992   6,926,925      2,346,649 33.9%        3,444,450 49.7%       1,135,826# 16.4%
1988   6,485,683      3,081,871 48.0%        3,347,882 52.0%       55,930 0.0%
1984   6,806,810      3,664,763 53.8%        3,119,609 45.8%       22,438 0.4%
1980   6,201,959      2,893,831 46.7%        2,728,372 44.0%       579,756* 9.3%
1976   6,534,170      3,100,791 47.5%        3,389,558 51.9%       43,821 0.6%
1972   7,165,919      4,192,778 58.5%        2,951,084 41.2%       22,057 0.3%
1968   6,791,688      3,007,932 44.3%        3,378,470 49.7%       405,286** 6.0%
1964   7,166,275      2,243,559 31.3%        4,913,102 68.6%       9,614 0.1%
1960   7,291,079      3,446,419 47.3%        3,830,085 52.5%       14,575 0.2%

^Nader 244,030 3.6%; ##Perot 503,458 8.0%; #Perot 1,090,721; *Anderson 467,131; **Wallace
358,864

Outlook
Even though neither the Bush nor the Kerry campaign has actively vied for the
traditionally Democratic state of New York, both have made visits in order to raise
money for their race to the Presidency. As of Oct. 7, the Bush-Kerry campaign has raised
$7,385,975 while the Kerry-Edwards campaign totaled $18,416,509.

Although Republicans have virtually no hope for winning the state, New York did host
the Republican National Convention from August 30 through September 2. Former
Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been active in helping the Republicans in this election.

Democratic Sen. Charles E. Schumer is facing a rather uncompetitive reelection
campaign for a second term in Congress. His $26 million war chest nearly ensures
victory, and the only challenger to come close in terms of finances is Independent
candidate Abraham Hirschfeld, with $702,000. The Official Republican challenger,
Howard Mills, is far behind Schumer both in the polls and in his finances, with only
$531,126 raised thus far.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Peace and Freedom/Independence Party
candidate.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 4 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 15 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 5,722 (ranks #3)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 41
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 10

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                      DATE      MoE
40            52            American Research Group   9/14-16   4
41             52           Marist Poll               9/13-14   4
                                   NORTH CAROLINA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 15
Polls Close: 7:30pm EST
Voting Age Population: 6,320,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters Total: 4,974,006; Registered Democrats: 2,388,679; Registered
Republicans: 1,712,992; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 872,335 (National
Journal September 15, 2003

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN              DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   2,911,262       1,631,163 56.0%         1,257,692 43.2%        22,407^ 0.7%
1996   2,515,807       1,225,938 48.7%         1,107,849 44.0%        182,020## 7.2%
1992   2,611,850       1,134,661 43.4%         1,114,042 43.0%        363,147# 14.0%
1988   2,134,370       1,237,258 58.0%         890,167 42.0%          6,945 0%
1984   2,175,361       1,346,481 61.9%         824,287 37.9%          4,593 0.2%
1980   1,855,833       915,018 49.3%           875,635 47.2%          65,180* 3.5%
1976   1,678,914       741,960 44.2%           927,365 55.2%          9,589 0.6%
1972   1,518,612       1,054,889 69.5%         438,705 28.9%          25,018 1.6%
1968   1,587,493       627,192 39.5%           464,113 29.2%          496,188** 31.3%
1964   1,424,983       624,844 43.8%           800,139 56.2%          --     0.0%
1960   1,368,556       655,420 47.9%           713,136 52.1%          --     0.0%

^ Green Party (Nader) not on the ballot: ##Perot 168,059 6.7%; #Perot 357,864 13.7%;
*Anderson 52,800; **Wallace 496,188

Outlook
North Carolina was supposed to be a battleground: a Southern swing state where the
Kerry campaign had a chance. Kerry picked North Carolina’s senior senator, John
Edwards, as his running mate on July 6 and the campaign immediately bought advertising
in the state touting the new team. From July 6 through the middle of September, the
Kerry-Edwards campaign stayed in the state, insisting that it could be competitive. Kerry
himself visited four times, odd if the campaign thought it was a waste of time.

By the end of September, however, the reality of the state’s presidential politics set in:
North Carolina has not voted for a Democrat since it went for Jimmy Carter in 1976 and
it has not voted consistently Democratic since the Dixiecrat mentality died out in the
1960s. On September 23, the campaign pulled ads from the state that would have started
October 5. Kerry has not visited since September 7.

The more interesting contest in the state is probably for Edwards’ Senate seat.
Democratic Senator and vice presidential nominee John Edwards is vacating his seat.
Businessman Erskine Bowles, who was chief of staff in the Clinton White House, is
taking his second shot at the Senate and will face Republican Representative Richard
Burr, who has spent 18 months raising money and building his name identification
beyond his 5th District. The race is dominated by talk of trade and job creation. Both
candidates have records as free-trade proponents but have adopted more protectionist
views in recent years, as their state has hemorrhaged jobs in the textile and furniture
industries. Though the state will probably go for Bush, the senate race could remain
competitive until the end.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 3 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 4 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 5,143 (ranks #4)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 25
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls
BUSH           KERRY           POLL                        DATE              MoE
52             43              Mason-Dixon                 9/26-28           4
53             41              Pub. Opinion Strategies (R) 9/26-27           4
                                    NORTH DAKOTA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 3
Polls Close: 9pm EST
Voting Age Population: 487,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registration: 409,000 as of November 2002. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   288,256         174,852 60.7%          95,284 33.1%           18,120^ 6.3%
1996   266,411         125,050 46.9%          106,905 40.1%          34,456## 12.9%
1992   308,133         136,244 44.2%          99,168 32.2%           72,721# 24.0%
1988   297,261         166,559 56.0%          127,739 43.0%          2,963 1%
1984   308,971         200,336 64.8%          104,429 33.8%          4,206 1.4%
1980   301,545         193,695 64.2%          79,189 26.3%           28,661*9.5%
1976   297,188         153,470 51.6%          136,078 45.8%          7,640 2.6%
1972   280,514         174,109 62.1%          100,384 35.8%          6,021 2.1%
1968   247,882         138,669 55.9%          94,769 38.2%           14,444**      5.9%
1964   258,389         108,207 41.9%          149,784 58.0%          398    0.1%
1960   278,431         154,310 55.4%          123,963 44.5%          158    0.1%

^ Nader 9,486 3.3%; ##Perot 32,515 12.2%; #Perot 71,084 23.1%; *Anderson 23,640; **Wallace
14,244

Outlook

North Dakota, a state with a very small number of electoral votes, does not attract much
attention from presidential hopefuls. Additionally, there seems to be little question as to
which way this state will vote. North Dakota has voted Republican in every postwar
presidential election, with the exception of Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. In 2000, George
W. Bush won 61% of the vote.

The referendum on gay marriage to appear on the ballot this November may bring more
Republicans to the polls (this is not to say that this bump is important for Bush to win
North Dakota, however).

Despite this, Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) will seek his third term, facing challenger Mike
Liffrig (R). There is no evidence to suggest that Dorgan will have any difficulty
maintaining his seat.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 703 (ranks #45)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 7
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                     DATE      MoE
62            33            American Research Group 9/7-10 4
                                           OHIO
Overview
Electoral College votes: 20
Polls Close: 7:30pm EST
Voting Age Population: 8,621,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters Total: 7,731,367 (AP 10/18); Registered Democrats: *see note below;
Registered Republicans: *see note below;
Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: *see note below

Ohio voters do not register as Democrats or Republicans, they only affiliate with a party
in order to vote for the primaries. This data is current as the March primary. One week
before the election, state officials will provide new registrations numbers. For now, the
media relations office estimates that there are 7.56 million registered voters as of Sept. 27
2004. These statistics were put together based on estimates of the 88 counties of Ohio. Of
these counties, 60 used current voter registration information while the rest used their
May numbers (which were based on primaries). Contact Person in Ohio: James Lee,
Media Relations officer (614) 466-2585

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL VOTE      REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   4,701,998       2,350,363 50.0%        2,183,628 46.4%        168,007^ 3.6%
1996   4,534,434       1,859,883 41.0%        2,148,222 47.4%        526,329## 11.6%
1992   4,939,967       1,894,310 38.3%        1,984,942 40.2%        1,060,715# 22.0%
1988   4,393,699       2,416,549 55.0%        1,939,629 44.1%        37,521 0.9%
1984   4,547,619       2,678,560 58.9%        1,825,440 40.1%        43,619 1.0%
1980   4,283,603       2,206,545 51.5%        1,752,414 40.9%        324,644* 7.6%
1976   4,111,873       2,000,505 48.7%        2,011,621 48.9%        99,747 2.4%
1972   4,094,787       2,441,827 59.6%        1,558,889 38.1%        94,071 2.3%
1968   3,959,698       1,791,014 45.2%        1,700,586 42.9%        468,098**11.9%
1964   3,969,196       1,470,865 37.1%        2,498,331 62.9%        --      --
1960   4,161,859       2,217,611 53.3%        1,944,248 46.7%        --      --

^ Nader 117,799 2.5%; 168,007##Perot 483,207 10.7%; #Perot 1,036,426 21.0%; *Anderson
254,472; **Wallace 467,495

Outlook
Although Democrats have won the White House without winning the Buckeye State,
Republicans have won the national election only when they won Ohio. And Ohio has
correctly picked winners since 1964. In 2000, Ohio went for Bush over Gore by just 3%
and both campaigns have made Ohio a priority on the level of Florida this year.

The campaigns have essentially turned the Ohio race into one of economics vs. culture.
On the economic front, the Kerry campaign has fertile ground: the state has lost 237,400
jobs (5,604,000 in January 2001 to 5,366,600 in August 2004). And the manufacturing
sector, where the state trails only California in number of jobs, was particularly hard hit,
losing 173,000 jobs (998,000 in January 2001 to 825,000 in August 2004). Its
unemployment rate is 6.3%, above the national average of 5.4% (August 2004). Perhaps
most ominously, although most states have seen some recovery in the past year, Ohio’s
numbers have moved consistently downward. And, jobs are being lost in places where
they have built communities: in May 2004, Timken Co. announced it would close most of
its ball-bearing factories in Canton, OH (located in the bellweather of Stark County). The
Timken factories have been in Canton since 1901 and were the site of a Bush rally on
economic opportunity in April 2003. Kerry has tirelessly targeted that issue, running
several ads specific to Ohio’s economy and touting his new jobs proposal in the state.

Despite the bad economic picture, Bush has many of Ohio’s cultural aspects on his side.
In areas that were never dominated by Ohio’s major union (CIO), smaller factories, rural
Protestants and voters who care deeply about gun rights and abortion comprise the
majority. That more conservative attitude holds in large voting areas like Columbus and
Cincinnati

The amount of television money being spent in Ohio is enormous. A University of
Wisconsin study of the television markets for both campaigns and their backers from
September 24 to October 7 shows that three of the top ten markets in the country are in
Ohio: Cleveland, Toledo, and Columbus. No other state has more than two (Florida) and
most have only one in the combined top ten. The epicenter of this advertising war is
Toledo, where about 14,273 commercials have aired Between March and late September,
according to TNSI/Campaign Media Analysis Group. Those numbers make Toledo the
most advertised-to market of any in the big battleground states. By mid-October, Ohio
trailed only Florida in money spent: From September 30 through October 13, Bush-
Cheney spent $5,923,455 to Kerry-Edwards’ $5,596,401.

Other groups are also involved: in one week in October alone, the Democratic 527 the
Media Fund spent more than $600,000 on ads there (MF is focusing almost entirely on
jobs/economy issues) and the DNC has spent millions since early August. Republican
groups like Progress for America Voter Fund and the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth have
also spent money in the state. The NRA is also running ads in heavy rotation attacking
Kerry’s record on guns. By October 18, the Campaign Media Analysis Group reports that
the campaigns and their allies have spent $72 million on political ads that have been
shown 82,000 times since March.

Beyond the air war, Ohio is also the center of this year’s ground war. Both campaigns
and several outside groups have spent months registering new voters and working on
their turnout machines. ACT, for example, has nearly 600 paid staffers as of mid-October
and that number is expected to grow. On the Republican side, the Bush-Cheney
campaign says it is making 30,000 phone calls per night. All told, the efforts seem to be
working: as of Oct. 4, the state recorded 791,579 new registrations, bringing the state’s
total to approximately 7.7 million voters. The real question: will those new voters will
turnout?

Another X factor: after several legal challenges, this year’s ballot will include a definition
of marriage referendum which would amend Ohio’s constitution to define marriage as
"Only a union between one man and one woman.” Like Michigan, Ohio’s amendment
also goes further, and prevents the state from recognizing in any way “relationships of
unmarried individuals.” Proponents of the Amendment say it would protect the traditional
definition of marriage. Opponents say the second clause would take away rights granted
by government employees, private companies and many couples, including heterosexual
couples. Proponents say the law would not apply retroactively but only to new
arrangements. Polling done by the Plain Dealer and the Columbus Dispatch show the
measure passing by a 2 to 1 margin although opponents say those polls are inaccurate. If
it does pass, both sides expect a legal challenge.

Regardless of passage, the referendum’s presence on the ballot may affect other races by
motivating conservative voters and increasing turnout. No Republican has ever won the
presidency without winning Ohio, so any extra conservative voters brought to the polls
by the initiative may also help President Bush in a very tight election.

In 2000, Bush held a lead in the polls for the entire year, only to see it shrink in the days
before Election Day. Gore, who pulled his ads in mid-October, went back on the air in
early November and ran an impressive ground game on Election Day. Cleveland and the
old CIO towns are still rather reliably Democratic. Most of the rural counties, including
the old-Democrat “Butternut” southern ones, went for Bush. Franklin County, which
includes Columbus, went for Gore but by only 4,163 votes. That was not enough to off-
set Bush’s lead in the surrounding counties. Bush carried the bellwether county of Stark,
which has voted for the winner in 9 of the last 10 elections. But since Bush took office,
Stark County area has lost 26% of its factory jobs and Kerry has visited the area
relentlessly. A final county to watch: Portage, which has voted for the winner in 7 o the
last nine elections (and actually, in the past 37 presidential elections to 1856, Portage
voters have sided with the victor in 34, missing with Wendell Willkie in 1944, Hubert
Humphrey in '68 and Gore in 2000)

This year, ground zero is Columbus and its surrounding counties. As one Democratic
activist opined, “It could well be that whoever wins the Columbus media market wins the
state…and whoever wins Ohio, well...”

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 12 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 28 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:
**Will probably rank #2 in TV advertising dollars spent**

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,637 (ranks #9)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 36
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 6

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                      DATE        MoE
47             48             American Research Group   10/4-6      4
51             44             Columbus Dispatch         9/21-10/1   2
                                       OKLAHOMA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 7
Polls Close: 8pm EST
Voting Age Population: 2,633,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 2,072,935; Registered Democrats: 1,099,458; Registered
Republicans: 758,275; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 215,202

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL VOTE      REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   1,234,229       744,337 60.3%          474,276 38.4%          15,616^1.3%
1996   1,206,713       582,315 48.3%          488,105 40.4%          136,293## 11.3%
1992   1,390,359       592,929 43.0%          473,066 34.0%          324,364# 23.3%
1988   1,171,036       678,367 57.9%          483,423 41.3%          9,246 0.8%
1984   1,255,676       861,530 68.6%          385,080 30.7%          9,066 0.7%
1980   1,149,708       695,570 60.5%          402,026 35.0%          55,112*4.5%
1976   1,092,251       545,708 50.0%          532,442 48.7%          14,101 1.3%
1972   1,029,900       759,025 73.7%          247,147 24.0%          23,728 2.3%
1968   943,086         449,697 47.7%          301,658 32.0%          191,731** 20.3%
1964   932,499         412,665 44.3%          519,834 55.7%          --     0.0%
1960   903,150         533,039 59.0%          370,111 41.0%          --     0.0%

^Green party (Nader) not on ballot; ##Perot 130,788 10.8%; #Perot 319,878 23.0%; *Anderson
38,284; **Wallace 191,731

Outlook
Since the 1950s Oklahoma has been a solidly Republican state in presidential elections.
In 2000 the state was 60% to 31% in favor of Bush over Gore and in 1996 it was 48% to
40% for Dole over Clinton. Many of the major blocs that traditionally back Democrats,
like unions, are not major players in this state.

Oklahoma does, however, have a Democratic Governor and a Democratic majority in the
State legislature. Both its Senators are currently Republican. But Senator Don Nickles
(R) is retiring, leaving an open southern seat, which Democrats have their eye on as a
possible pick up. Former Representative Tom Coburn (R) earned 61% of the vote in a
contentious primary. Coburn faces Representative Brad Carson, who easily won the
Democratic primary. Carson, 37, currently represents the 2nd Congressional district, the
same district that Coburn represented before retiring in 2000. Oklahoma is a safe
Republican bet for President Bush but not necessarily for the Senate. Carson’s status as
the current Representative helps his name recognition; he is a member of the Cherokee
Nation and a Rhodes scholar. He is a moderate Democrat who voted for Bush’s tax cuts,
for the ban on partial-birth abortion and for drilling in the Alaska National Wildlife
Refugee. Coburn, a Southern Baptist deacon, earned a conservative voting record during
his three terms in Congress but he continually crossed party lines on health care issues
and increases in veteran’s health care services. Coburn’s campaign has come across a few
stumbling blocks so far including his remarks calling Oklahoma lawmakers “crapheads”
as well a continued controversy over allegations that he sterilized a female patient
without her consent during a life-saving operation in the 1980s. The race is currently a
toss up.

There is also a referendum on the ballot in Oklahoma this year on a state constitutional
amendment that would ban same sex marriages. Gay marriage supporters concede that
they will probably lose in Oklahoma as well as in the 11 other states where the issue is
being voted on.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: none
Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 2,350 (ranks #23)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 18
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                          DATE           MoE
58             28             Wilson Research (R)           10/1-3         4.4
62             29             Basswood Research (R)          9/27          4.4
                                         OREGON
Overview
Electoral College votes: 7
Polls Close: 11pm EST
Voting Age Population: 2,710,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters Total: 1,949,592; Registered Democrats: 762,781; Registered
Republicans: 697,346; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 489,465 (August
2004 Secretary of State Website)
*The September figures will be in the Sec of State’s office as of October 15th and should
be posted shortly thereafter.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN              DEMOCRATIC              OTHER
2000   1,533,968       713,577 46.5%           720,342 47.0%           100,049^ 6.5%
1996   1,377,760       538,152 39.1%           649,641 47.2%           189,967## 13.8%
1992   1,462,643       475,757 33.0%           621,314 43.0%           365,572# 25.0%
1988   1,201,694       560,126 46.6%           616,206 51.3%           25,362 2.1%
1984   1,226,527       685,700 55.9%           536,479 43.7%           4,348 0.4%
1980   1,181,516       571,044 48.3%           456,890 38.7%           153,582* 13.0%
1976   1,029,876       492,120 47.8%           490,407 47.6%           47,349 4.6%
1972   927,946         486,686 52.4%           392,760 42.3%           48,500 5.3%
1968   819,622         408,433 49.8%           358,866 43.8%           52,323** 6.4%
1964   786,305         282,779 36.0%           501,017 63.7%           2,509 0.3%
1960   776,421         408,060 52.6%           367,402 47.3%           959    0.1%

^Nader 77,357 5.0%; ##Perot 121,221 8.8%; *Anderson 112,389; **Wallace 49,683

Outlook
In many ways, Oregon is an unlikely swing state. The state has a history of progressive
politics (citizens are legally allowed to grow their own marijuana for medicinal purposes)
and the state has gone Democratic every year beginning in 1988. Despite that, Al Gore
won the state by less than 1% (6,765 votes to be exact) and in mid-October, Oregon
probably represents the best chance Bush-Cheney has for a West Coast pick-up.

Oregon is split, not along cultural vs. economic lines, but more by the role government
should play. Oregonians have used the state government as an instrument for social
change (i.e. legalizing physician assisted suicide) but also rejected too large a role for that
government (i.e. rejecting a universal health care referendum in 2002). One example of
the split in Oregon is the environment. Residents in the Democratic stronghold of
Portland have enacted environmental protection laws, and efforts to limit growth there
have been successful. In other areas, however, environmental protection has been seen as
a threat to growth and has turned many voters Republican. In 2000, George W. Bush
used this trend to his advantage, taking stand against a Clinton administration proposal to
breach dams on the Snake River in Idaho, which would have reduced water supplies for
farmers in eastern Oregon. Gore did not take a stand on the issue, allowing Bush to rack
up big margins in the eastern portion of the state.
Economically, Oregon is in transition. In the 1990s, the high-tech boom fueled the state’s
growth. The tech crash hit the state hard: unemployment reached 8.1% in February 2002.
Since then, the economy has rebounded somewhat, from a low point of 1,554,300 in June
2003 to 1,598,700 in August 2004 (but still has not reached its January 2001 level of
1,615,200). In August 2004, the unemployment rate remained stubbornly high at 7.4%,
the third-highest of the country (Alaska was “first” at 7.6%, DC was second with 7.5%)
and well above the national average of 5.4%.

Considering its environmental roots, it is not surprising that Ralph Nader represents a
major factor in Oregon’s politics. In 2000, Nader received 77,357 votes (5%), Nader’s
best showing in any state that year. This year, Nader failed to qualify for the ballot, but
his supporters may turn up in numbers regardless and, given the slim margin from 2000,
even 1/10th as much support would be enough to affect the outcome.

Two referenda are also increasing interest in the election. (1) The state already allows
residents to grow their own marijuana for medicinal purposes, and Measure 33 would add
a state-regulated non-profit medical marijuana dispensary system for patients too ill to
grow their own. The initiative does not have major backers and is expected to fail. (2)
On gay marriage, Constitutional Amendment 36, would define marriage as being only
legally recognized as a union between man and woman. Of the 11 states with anti-gay
marriage amendments on the ballot this November, Oregon is one of two states where
passage is not virtually assured (the other in Michigan). Polling done in September by
the Portland Tribune shows the measure passing with 57%, but that margin will probably
shrink as both sides step up their activities.

Because it appears winnable for both sides, each campaign is actively working in the
state. In mid-October, the Bush-Cheney campaign was in a “dogfight” with the Kerry
campaign, running dozens of ads a day. From the period from October 7 through 13,
Bush-Cheney ran $383,987 worth of ads to $322,544 for Kerry-Edwards. President Bush
visited Medford and Portland (after the third presidential debate) and Kerry has touched
down five times there as of 10/11/04. As of mid-October, ACT had more than 100 paid
staffers in the state and that number was expected to grow. Environmental groups like
League of Conservation Voters are also in the state as is the pro-choice group NARAL,
both vigorously opposing Bush.

The one activity you won’t see in Oregon on Election Day is actual voting: since 1998,
Oregon has voted exclusively by mail.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 1 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 5 (as of 10/11/04) (not including 1 off day)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,673 (ranks #29)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 23
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                      DATE      MoE
43            50            Research 2000             9/20-23   4
44            51            Research 2000             9/13-16   4
                                    PENNSYLVANIA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 21
Polls Close: 8pm EST
Voting Age Population: 9,535,00 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters Total: 7,634,577; Registered Democrats: 3,622,410; Registered
Republicans: 3,179,303; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 832,863 (April
2004, Source: Pennsylvania Dept. of State Records)
* New numbers will be available October 26th.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   4,913,119      2,281,127 46.4%        2,485,967 50.6%        146,025^ 3.0%
1996   4,506,118      1,801,169 40.0%        2,215,819 49.2%        489,130## 10.9%
1992   4,959,810      1,791,841 36.1%        2,239,164 45.1%        928,805# 19.0%
1988   4,536,251      2,300,087 50.7%        2,194,944 48.4%        41,220 0.9%
1984   4,844,903      2,584,323 53.3%        2,228,131 46.0%        32,449 0.7%
1980   4,561,501      2,261,872 49.6%        1,937,540 42.5%        362,089* 7.9%
1976   4,620,787      2,205,604 47.7%        2,328,677 50.4%        86,506 1.9%
1972   4,592,106      2,714,521 59.1%        1,796,951 39.1%        80,634 1.8%
1968   4,747,928      2,090,017 44.0%        2,259,405 47.6%        398,506** 8.4%
1964   4,822,690      1,673,657 34.7%        3,130,954 64.9%        18,079 0.4%
1960   5,006,541      2,439,956 48.7%        2,556,282 51.1%        10,303 0.2%

^Nader 103,392 2.1%; ##Perot 430,984 9.6%; *Anderson 292,921; **Wallace 378,582

Outlook
Although Pennsylvania has voted Democratic in the past three elections, it is a
bellweather state. The Kerry campaign cannot afford to lose its 21 Electoral College
votes and, hoping to pick them up, George Bush has once again heavily targeted the state.

Pennsylvania is essentially two states: (1) the northern counties that border New York
and the central counties of Blair and Lancaster (Pennsylvania Dutch counties) tend to
vote Republican while (2) the sides (where coal mines and steel factories formerly sat)
and the metro areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh usually vote Democratic. In 2000,
Bush beat up on Gore on the cultural issues of abortion and gun control, helping Bush
appeal to the Catholics and gun owners in the middle of the state. But that was not
enough to overcome Gore’s popularity among voters over the age of 65 and his large
margins in Philadelphia. Hoping at least to neutralize the gun issue this year, Kerry has
formed “Sportsmen for Kerry” and was photographed shooting skeet just outside
Pittsburgh.

In appealing to voters, both candidates have spent huge resources in the state. Bush has
visited the state 39 times (as of 10/11/04) since taking office, more than any other
battleground state. Bush also appointed the state’s popular Governor Tom Ridge as head
of the Department of Homeland Security. For his part, Kerry has visited the state 19
times in 2004 alone (10/11/04) and his campaign has spent millions of dollars on ads
there. Kerry also benefits from his wife’s ties to the state: her late husband, John Heinz,
was the state’s senator from 1976 until his death in 1991; and the family has tapped its
immense fortune to fund millions worth of projects in state. Heinz Kerry also owns a
farm outside Pittsburgh.

Beyond the cultural issues that both campaigns are discussing, the Kerry campaign has a
potent issue that centers on the economy. Pennsylvania’s economy did well in the 1990s
and many former Democrats voted Republican for the first time. Since January 2001, the
state has lost 74,000 jobs (from 5,717,400 in January 2001 to 5,642,600 in August 2004).
And the recovery has proceeded more slowly in Pennsylvania than in some states: in
February 2004, it was down to 5,575,800 jobs and its unemployment rate remains above
the national average at 5.6%. One analyst, PNC Financial Services Group, estimates
Pennsylvania will add 25,000 jobs in 2004 but notes such a rise is only an increase of
0.4% and unevenly distributed.

Because of the heated competition in the state, the state is likely to rank third in total
spent on television advertising. Several 527 organizations have made it a top target. ACT
has more than 150 paid staffers in the state who have registered over 130,000 new voters
as of mid-October and the DNC, the League of Conservation Voters and the Media Fund
($4.5 million) have spent millions on television advertising supporting Kerry. The Kerry
campaign has also run ads featuring Governor Ed Rendell (Philadelphia) and Bob Casey
Jr. (in Wilkes-Barre) and spent close to $4 million from September 30 to October 13.
Bush-Cheney spent $5.3 million in the same period. On the Republican side, 527s
including Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, Americans for Coal Jobs (which target’s
Kerry’s environmental record), and Americans United to Preserve Marriage (which is
anti-gay marriage) are all active in the state.

In 2000, Nader received 103,392 votes, or 2% of the vote. This year, a series of legal
proceedings surround Nader’s attempt to get on the ballot. Friends of Bush-Cheney are
hoping he will be on the ballot whereas Kerry-Edwards supporters are working in the
opposite direction. Several irregularities have emerged in petitions submitted on Nader’s
behalf: 70% of his Philadelphia petitions were ruled invalid and a group of homeless
people is suing the campaign, claiming they were not paid the money they were promised
for collecting signatures. Despite a ruling that counties should not send out absentee
ballots with Nader’s name on them, the third-largest county in the state, along with the
city of Philadelphia, has already done so. This brings up a dilemma: what happens to
ballots that vote for him?

In 2000, George Bush won among voters aged 30 to 44 and among White Protestants.
Gore won those over 65 years old (60-38%) and went massively for Gore (67 to 29%).
Catholics, who had voted for Democrats in the past, went for Gore only barely (50 to
46%). This year, the number of registered voters is close to 8 million, almost 300,000
more than in 2000. While mid-October polls show Kerry leading by a few points, with
the number of new voters topping Gore’s margin of victory, both candidates have the
opportunity to pick up enough votes to win.
The Nader Factor: As of October 13, Nader is not on the ballot but his campaign is
appealing.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 14 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 19 (as of 10/11/04) (not including 9 off days)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:
**Will probably rank #3 in TV advertising dollars spent**

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,476 (ranks #12)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 54
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls
BUSH          KERRY          POLL                     DATE              MoE
46            48             *American Research Group 10/4-6            4
43            49             *Franklin & Marshall     9/30-10/4         4
                                     RHODE ISLAND
Overview
Electoral College votes: 4
Polls Close: 9pm EST
Voting Age Population: 832,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registration: 508,000 as of November 2002. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC            OTHER
2000   409,047        130,555 31.9%          249,508 61.0%         28,984^ 7.8%
1996   390,284        104,683 26.8%          233,050 59.7%         52,551## 13.5%
1992   453,477        131,601 29.0%          213,299 47.0%         108,577#24.0%
1988   404,620        177,761 44%            225,123 56%           1,736 0%
1984   410,492        212,080 51.7%          197,106 48.0%         1,306 0.3%
1980   416,072        154,793 37.2%          198,342 47.7%         62,937*15.1%
1976   411,170        181,249 44.1%          227,636 55.4%         2,285 0.5%
1972   415,808        220,383 53.0%          194,645 46.8%         780    0.2%
1968   385,000        122,359 31.8%          246,518 64.0%         16,123** 4.2%
1964   390,091        74,615 19.1%           315,463 80.9%         13     0.0%
1960   405,535        147,502 36.4%          258,032 63.6%         --     0.0%

^ Nader 25,052 6.1%; ##Perot 43,723 11.2%; #Perot 105,045 23.2%; *Anderson 59,819;
**Wallace 15,678

Outlook
Rhode Island almost always votes Democratic in presidential elections. It was, in fact,
the most Democratic state in the 2000 election voting 61% to 32% in favor of Al Gore.
In 1996, Rhode Island went 60% to 27% for Clinton over Dole. Part of the reason is that
Rhode Island’s Catholic majority is heavily Democratic and, interestingly, pro-choice.
Also, white Protestants in the state, who were at one time the Republican base, have
tended to vote for Democrats for almost a generation now. Rhode island is considered a
safe state for John Kerry. There are no other major ballot issues there this year.

The state does have a Republican Governor while its Senators are split with one
Democrat and one Republican. Republicans, however, tend to be very moderate in
Rhode Island. Both the state’s house members are Democrats and Democrats dominate
the state’s legislature, 44 to 6 in the senate and 85 to 15 in the house. Even Rhode
Island’s Sen. Lincoln Chafee, a Republican, said recently that he might not vote for
President Bush in the Nov. 2 election.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 1 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 545 (ranks #46)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 4
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                      DATE      MoE
30            58            American Research Group   9/11-13   4
                                  SOUTH CAROLINA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 8
Polls Close: 7pm EST
Voting Age Population: 3,124,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters Total: 2,256,745. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC            OTHER
2000   1,382,717      785,937 56.8%          565,561 40.9%         31,219^2.3%
1996   1,151,689      573,458 49.8%          506,283 44.0%         71,948## 6.2%
1992   1,202,527      577,507 48.0%          479,514 40.0%         145,506# 12.1%
1988   986,009        606,443 61.5%          370,554 37.6%         9,012 0.9%
1984   968,529        615,539 63.6%          344,459 35.6%         8,531 0.8%
1980   894,071        441,841 49.4%          430,385 48.1%         21,845*2.5%
1976   802,583        346,149 43.1%          450,807 56.2%         5,627 0.7%
1972   673,960        477,044 70.8%          186,824 27.7%         10,092 1.5%
1968   666,978        254,062 38.1%          197,486 29.6%         215,430** 32.3%
1964   524,779        309,048 58.9%          215,723 41.1%         8      0.0%
1960   386,688        188,558 48.8%          198,129 51.2%         1      0.0%

^ Nader 20,200 1.5%; ##Perot 64,386 5.6%; #Perot 138,872 11.5%; *Anderson 14,153;
**Wallace 215,430

Outlook
South Carolina votes reliably Republican in presidential elections. It was the only state
in the Deep South that voted for Richard Nixon over George Wallace in 1968 and has
been among the top Republican states in 1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000 presidential election
years. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win South Carolina was Jimmy
Carter in 1976. Despite being the birthplace of Democratic vice presidential candidate
John Edwards, South Carolina is expected to be a safe win for Bush.

The state does, however, have a hot Senate race this year. Senator Ernest Hollings (D) is
retiring after 38 years in the Senate. Three-term Representative Jim DeMint won the
June 22nd Republican primary run off 59% to 41% over former Governor David Beasley.
DeMint now faces Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum (D), a moderate
Democrat who easily won her primary. DeMint, 53, is a strong supporter of free trade,
which is an issue that continues to come up as Tenenbaum talks about job growth.
Recently, DeMint had to apologize for his comments that unwed, pregnant women should
not be teachers. South Carolina is a consistently Republican state but Tenenbaum is a
strong moderate who could win middle of the road Republican votes. The race is
currently a toss up.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as the Reform Party candidate (in RI, the party
is called the Independence Party).
Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 1 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 2 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: none
Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,132 (ranks #14)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 18
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 4

Polls
BUSH          KERRY           POLL                     DATE      MoE
59            32              Basswood Research (R)    9/25-26   4.4
52            40              American Research Group 9/14-16    4
                                    SOUTH DAKOTA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 3
Polls Close: 9pm EST
Voting Age Population: 569,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters Total: 483,286; Registered Democrats: 185,261; Registered
Republicans: 230,895; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 67,130 (Unofficial
Oct. 1 data from Secretary of State Website, http://www.sdsos.gov/stats/ST201200.html)

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL           REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC              OTHER
2000   316,269         190,700 60.3%          118,804 37.6%           6,765^2.1%
1996   323,826         150,543 46.5%          139,333 43.0%           33,950## 10.5%
1992   336,254         136,718 41.0%          124,888 37.1%           74,648#22.2%
1988   312,991         165,415 52.8%          145,560 46.5%           2,016 0.7%
1984   317,867         200,267 63.0%          116,113 36.5%           1,487 0.5%
1980   327,703         198,343 60.5%          103,855 31.7%           25,505*7.8%
1976   300,678         151,505 50.4%          147,068 48.9%           2,105 0.1%
1972   307,415         166,476 54.2%          139,945 45.5%           994    0.3%
1968   281,264         149,841 53.3%          118,023 42.0%           13,400** 4.7%
1964   293,118         130,108 44.4%          163,010 55.6%           --     --
1960   306,487         178,417 41.8%          128,070 58.2%           --     --

^ Green party (Nader) not on ballot; ##Perot 31,250 9.7%; #Perot 73,295 21.8%; *Anderson
21,431; **Wallace 6,813,400

Outlook
South Dakota has only gone for a Democratic presidential candidate four times since it
gained statehood. The last time was in 1964. In 1972, favorite son George McGovern
lost 45.5 to 54.2% to Richard Nixon. In 1996 when Bill Clinton lost by only a 3% margin
to Bob Dole. In 2000, however, Al Gore was not popular and was badly beaten by
George Bush 60% to 38%. Gore did, however, carry the Native American vote, a small
but increasingly important voting bloc. South Dakota currently has a Republican
governor and two Democratic senators and the state legislature has a Republican majority
in both houses.

Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent.
Daschle, 56, has spent a good portion of his life representing South Dakota in Congress;
he was elected to the House in 1978 and the Senate in 1986. He has served as Minority
leader since 1995, enjoying the title of Majority Leader from June 2001 until January of
2003. Republicans in South Dakota contend that Daschle’s leadership of a Democratic
caucus that is more liberal than the state he represents has put him at odds with his
electorate. Daschle will face former Representative John Thune (R) who lost his first
Senate bid by 524 votes in 2002. Thune has made some changes in his campaign team
since 2002 and has made an effort to reach out to Native American voters. Daschle has a
long record and good name recognition but has taken some heat for using pictures of
President Bush and him hugging in campaign advertisements. Something a little odd
considering that the two are not fond of each other and politically wouldn’t touch the
other with a ten-foot pole. In a state which President Bush won by 22 points in 2000,
Thune has the party advantage, but he is up against an experienced candidate who is
determined to fight. The race is currently a toss up. There are no other major ballot
issues in South Dakota this year.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney: none
Kerry-Edwards: none

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,428 (ranks #32)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 6
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                          DATE           MoE
57             29             Zogby International           9/24-28        4.5
50             37             Mason-Dixon                   9/20-22        3.5
                                      TENNESSEE
Overview
Electoral College votes: 11
Polls Close: 8pm EST
Voting Age Population: 4,447,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registration: 3,176,984 as of August 3, 2000. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results
        TOTAL         REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000    2,076,181     1,061,949 51.1%        981,720 47.3%          32,512^1.6%
1996    1,894,105     863,530 45.6%          909,146 48.0%          121,429## 6.4%
1992    1,982,638     841,300 42.4%          933,521 47.1%          207,817# 10.5%
1988    1,636,250     947,233 58%            679,794 42%            9,223 0.0%
1984    1,711,994     990,212 57.8%          711,714 41.6%          10,068 0.6%
1980    1,617,616     787,761 48.7%          783,051 48.4%          46,804*2.9%
1976    1,476,345     633,969 42.9%          825,879 55.9%          16,497 1.2%
1972    1,201,182     813,147 67.7%          357,293 29.7%          30,742 2.6%
1968    1,248,617     472,592 37.8%          351,233 28.1%          424,792** 34.1%
1964    1,143,946     508,965 44.5%          634,947 55.5%          34     0.0%
1960    1,051,792     556,577 52.9%          481,453 45.8%          13,762 1.3%

^ Nader 19,781 0.9%; ##Perot 105,918 5.6%; #Perot 199,968 10.1%; *Anderson 35,991;
**Wallace 424,792

Outlook
Tennessee is expected to be a very safe state for President Bush. The state has been
evenly divided at several times over the last half-century but the failure of native son Al
Gore to win the state in 2000 as a representative of an incumbent party during a time of
peace and prosperity is a clear sign that the state has become strongly Republican.
Tennessee is probably going to be out of reach for Democratic presidential candidates for
a while.

There are no other major ballot issues this year in Tennessee. The state has a Democratic
governor and two Republican senators including Bill Frist, the Senate Majority Leader.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 4 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 5 (as of 10/11/04)

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 5,066 (ranks #5)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 27
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls
BUSH   KERRY   POLL                      DATE      MoE
50     43      American Research Group   9/16-18   4
53     37      Mason-Dixon               9/11-14   4
                                         TEXAS
Overview
Electoral College votes: 34
Polls Close: 9pm EST
Voting Age Population: 15,878,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registration: 11,612,761 as of March 14, 2000. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC            OTHER
2000   6,407,637      3,799,639 59.3%        2,433,746 38.0%       174,252^ 2.7%
1996   5,611,644      2,736,167 48.8%        2,459,683 43.8%       415,794## 7.4%
1992   6,154,018      2,496,071 40.6%        2,281,815 37.1%       1,376,132# 22.4%
1988   5,427,410      3,036,829 56.0%        2,352,748 43.3%       37,833 0.7%
1984   5,397,571      3,433,428 63.6%        1,949,276 36.1%       14,867 0.3%
1980   4,541,636      2,510,705 55.3%        1,881,147 41.4%       149,784* 3.3%
1976   4,071,884      1,953,300 48.0%        2,082,319 51.1%       36,265 0.9%
1972   3,471,281      2,298,896 66.2%        1,154,289 33.3%       18,096 0.5%
1968   3,079,216      1,227,844 39.9%        1,266,804 41.1%       584,568** 19%
1964   2,626,811      958,566 36.5%          1,663,185 63.3%       5,060 0.2%
1960   2,311,084      1,121,310 48.5%        1,167,567 50.5%       22,207 1.0%

^ Nader 137,994 2.2%; ##Perot 378,537 6.7%; #Perot 1,354,781 22.0%; *Anderson 111,613;
**Wallace 584,269

Outlook
Texas and its 34 electoral votes are going to go to its native son, President Bush. In
2000, Bush won the state 59% to 38% over Al Gore. While Bush has not spent much
time campaigning in the state, he does often return to spend time at his ranch in
Crawford. He also spent election night in 2000 in Texas.

The state has a Republican governor and two Republican senators. Democrats
outnumber Republicans, however, in the house, 17 to 15. There are no other major ballot
issues this year in Texas.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 11 (as of 9/23/04) (mostly at Crawford Ranch)
Kerry 3 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 8,716 (ranks #1)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 95
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 7

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                      DATE      MoE
58             36             American Research Group   9/16-20   4
57             33             Scripps Howard            8/9-26    3
                                         UTAH
Overview
Electoral College votes: 5
Polls Close: 10pm EST
Voting Age Population: 1,609,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: 1,118,041 as of June 27, 2000. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC            OTHER
2000   770,754        515,096 66.8%          203,053 26.3%         52,605^6.8%
1996   665,629        361,911 54.4%          221,633 33.3%         82,085## 12.3%
1992   743,999        322,632 43.4%          183,429 24.7%         237,938# 32.0%
1988   647,008        428,442 66.2%          207,343 32%           11,223 1.8%
1984   629,656        469,105 74.5%          155,369 24.7%         5,182 0.8%
1980   604,222        439,687 72.8%          124,266 20.6%         40,269*6.6%
1976   541,198        337,908 62.4%          182,110 33.6%         21,180 4.0%
1972   478,476        323,643 67.6%          126,284 26.4%         28,549 6.0%
1968   422,568        238,728 56.5%          156,665 37.1%         27,175** 6.4%
1964   401,413        181,785 45.3%          219,628 54.7%         --     --
1960   374,709        205,361 54.8%          169,248 45.2%         100    0.0%

^ Nader 35,850 4.7%; ##Perot 66,461 10.0%; #Perot 203,400 27.3%; *Anderson 30,284;
**Wallace 26,906

Outlook
Utah is certainly one of the most, if not THE most Republican state in the union. Every
postwar presidential race in Utah has gone to the Republicans with the exception of
Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 and Harry S. Truman in 1948. In 2000, George W. Bush won
67% of the vote. It seems abundantly clear that Bush will win Utah in 2004.

An amusing tidbit from Utah: Republican Senator Orrin Hatch wants to change the
Constitution so a person who is born in a foreign country, for example California Gov.
Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), can become president after living in the U.S. 20 years.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,432 (ranks #31)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 6
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                      DATE      MoE
64             27             American Research Group   9/10-13   4
65             25             Dan Jones (R)             9/6-9     3
                                       VERMONT
Overview
Electoral College votes: 3
Polls Close: 7pm EST
Voting Age Population: 482,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: 408,421 as of September 12, 2000. Voters not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   294,308        119,775 40.7%          149,022 50.6%          25,511^ 8.7%
1996   258,449        80,352 31.1%           137,894 53.4%          40,203## 15.5%
1992   289,701        88,122 30.4%           133,592 46.1%          67,987# 23.5%
1988   243,328        124,331 51.1%          115,775 47.6%          3,222 1.3%
1984   234,561        135,865 57.9%          95,730 40.8%           2,966 1.3%
1980   213,299        94,628 44.4%           81,952 38.4%           36,719* 17.2%
1976   187,765        102,085 54.4%          80,954 43.1%           4,726 2.5%
1972   186,947        117,149 62.7%          68,174 36.5%           1,624 0.8%
1968   161,404        85,142 52.8%           70,255 43.5%           6,007** 3.7%
1964   163,089        54,942 33.7%           108,127 66.3%          20     0.0%
1960   167,324        98,131 58.6%           69,186 41.4%           7      0.0%

^Nader 20,374 6.9%; ##Perot 31,024 12.0%; #Perot 65,991 22.8%; *Anderson 31,761;
**Wallace 5,104

Outlook
Vermont has leaned mostly Democrat over the last 20 years. In both 1992 and 1996 it
solidly backed Bill Clinton. In 2000 Al Gore won the state 51% to 41% over Bush.
Vermont is not completely in the safe column for Kerry this year, but more than likely
will go to the Democrat. Bush has tended to do well among voters there without college
degrees, while in 2000 Gore carried those with college degrees 51% to 36% and won the
postgraduate degree holders 62% to 29%.

Vermont is also home to Howard Dean, its former governor and major player in the 2004
Democratic primaries. Dean, a vocal liberal, surprised most analysts when he jumped out
for a short time as the apparent Democratic front-runner. While Dean’s presidential
hopes ultimately fizzled, his popularity in his home state could bode well for Kerry
whom Dean now backs.

Vermont has a bit of a contrarian streak in it as it has one Democratic senator and a
Republican Governor. Rep. Bernie Sanders is Vermont's Independent Representative to
the U.S. House, the first Independent elected to Congress in 40 years. He has since been
re-elected five times and is the longest-serving Independent in the history of the House of
Representatives.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 327 (ranks #49)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 9
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 0

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                     DATE      MoE
40            50            American Research Group 9/9-12 4
                                        VIRGINIA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 13
Polls Close: 7pm EST
Voting Age Population: 5,588,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters Total: 4,101,639 (Oct. 1, 2004: Secretary of State Website). Voters do
not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC            OTHER
2000   2,739,447      1,437,490 52.5%        1,217,290 44.4%       84,667^ 3.1%
1996   2,416,642      1,138,350 47.1%        1,091,060 47.1%       187,232## 7.7%
1992   2,558,665      1,150,517 45.0%        1,038,650 41.0%       369,498# 14.4%
1988   2,191,609      1,309,162 59.7%        859,799 39.2%         22,648 1.1%
1984   2,146,635      1,337,078 62.3%        796,250 37.1%         13,037 0.6%
1980   1,866,032      989,609 53.0%          752,174 40.3%         124,249* 6.7%
1976   1,697,094      836,554 49.3%          813,896 48.0%         46,644 2.7%
1972   1,457,019      988,493 67.8%          438,887 30.1%         29,639 2.1%
1968   1,361,491      590,319 43.4%          442,387 32.5%         328,785** 24.1%
1964   1,042,267      481,334 46.2%          558,038 53.5%         2,895 0.3%
1960   771,449        404,521 52.4%          362,327 47.0%         4,601 0.6%

^ Nader 59,398 2.2%; ##Perot 159,861 6.6%; #Perot 348,639 13.6%; *Anderson 95,418;
**Wallace 321,833

Outlook
Virginia may be the state where the Kerry campaign tried hardest to make a campaign out
of one that essentially did not exist. The last Democrat to carry the state was Lyndon
Johnson in 1964. Before him, it was Harry Truman in 1948. President Bush carried the
state 52% to 44% and is virtually certain to repeat that feat this year.

Despite those odds, the Kerry campaign did make an effort in the state. The campaign
had about 30 staff members throughout the state at one point and ran nearly $2 million
worth of ads. Kerry was popular in the Democratic areas of Northern Virginia, and he
hoped to appeal to the state’s large number of military veterans. Sen. John Edwards also
stumped for the team in rural areas.

In early October, however, the Kerry campaign bowed to political reality and sent its top
staffers to other states. Although some of the campaign offices remain open, Kerry has
essentially conceded the state and every poll so far has shown Kerry behind.

The Nader Factor: Nader is not on the ballot.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 6 (as of 9/23/04) (mostly Arlington national Cemetery or bike rides at Quantico)
Kerry 8 (as of 10/11/04)
Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 2,811 (ranks #21)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 28
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 2

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                     DATE      MoE
49            43            Mason-Dixon              9/24-27   4
49            43            American Research Group 9/12-14    4
                                     WASHINGTON
Overview
Electoral College votes: 11
Polls Close: 11pm EST
Voting Age Population: 4,635,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters Total: Secretary of state predicts that by November 2, the total number
or registered voters will be 3.4 million. Voters do not register by party.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL VOTE     REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC            OTHER
2000   2,487,433      1,108,864 44.6%        1,247,652 50.2%       130,917^ 5.3%
1996   2,253,837      840,712 37.3%          1,123,323 49.8%       289,802## 12.9%
1992   2,288,230      731,234 32.0%          993,037 43.4%         563,959# 24.6%
1988   1,865,253      903,835 48.0%          933,516 50%           27,902 2.0%
1984   1,883,910      1,051,670 55.8%        807,352 42.9%         24,888 1.3%
1980   1,742,394      865,244 49.7%          650,193 37.3%         226,957* 13.0%
1976   1,555,534      777,732 50.0%          717,323 46.1%         60,479 3.9%
1972   1,470,847      837,135 56.9%          568,334 38.6%         65,378 4.5%
1968   1,304,281      588,510 45.1%          616,037 47.2%         99,734** 7.7%
1964   1,258,556      470,366 37.4%          779,881 62.0%         8,309 0.6%
1960   1,241,572      629,273 50.7%          599,298 48.3%         13,001 1.0%

^ Nader 103,002 4.1%; ##Perot 201,003 8.9%; #Perot 541,780 23.7%; *Anderson 185,073;
**Wallace 96,990

Outlook
Like the Kerry effort in Arizona, the Bush team went after Washington knowing it was an
uphill battle. Washington went for Clinton twice in the 1990s and for Gore in 2000. With
its progressive politics and commitment to the environment, Washington is also a more
natural fit for Kerry.

So why did Bush spend resources there in 2004? In the past, voters in Washington have
split on social issues: approving more lenient penalties for marijuana use but rejecting
mandatory trigger locks for guns. Demographically, Bush also made solid in-roads in
2000, carrying eastern Washington by a large margin and staying almost even in the west.
Gore won only by commanding 60% of the vote in King County, which includes Seattle
located, and claiming 62% of union votes. As in Oregon, many blue-collar lumber voters
went for Bush on economic/environmental issues rather than for Democrats as in most
years past.

Hoping to take advantage of those numbers from 2000, the Bush-Cheney campaign
devoted major resources to the state. Through September, the campaign spent more than
$3.5 million in the state, running more than 20 ads a day in the Spokane and Seattle
markets alone. The Kerry campaign responded, running ads to the tune of $3.3 million
and sending Kerry for five visits through the end of August. Despite the Bush efforts,
polls consistently showed Kerry leading in the sate by 5 to 7 points.
In early October, the Bush campaign apparently acknowledged the political situation and
sharply cut back on its advertising. From October 7 through 13, Bush-Cheney campaign
spent $55,2346 compared to Kerry-Edwards’ $212,714 in the same period. The National
Republican Senatorial Committee also withdrew $1 million worth of scheduled ads on
behalf of U.S. Senate candidate George Nethercutt, suggesting the Republican party is no
longer concentrating on the state.

Although the Bush-Cheney campaign denies it is conceding the state, the advertising
buys suggest that is the case. In addition, Bush has not visited the state since August. This
year Washington, rebounding from the tech bust, will almost certainly go for John Kerry.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 2 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 5 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 4,825 (ranks #7)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 23
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 3

Polls
BUSH           KERRY           POLL                           DATE           MoE
44             49              Strategic Vision (R)           10/4-6         3
45             47              Moore Information (R)          10/3-4         4
                                   WEST VIRGINIA
Overview
Electoral College votes: 5
Polls Close: 7:30pm EST
Voting Age Population: 1,419,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters: Total: 1,103,264; Registered Democrats: 655,646; Registered
Republicans: 321,586; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 126,032 (Primaries,
May 11 2004 from Sec. of State Website)
* New numbers will be available in late October

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   648,124        336,475 51.9%          295,497 45.6%          16,152^ 2.5%
1996   636,459        233,946 36.8%          327,812 51.5%          74,701## 11.7%
1992   683,762        241,974 35.4%          331,001 48.4%          110,787# 16.2%
1988   653,311        310,065 47.5%          341,016 52.2%          2,230 0.3%
1984   735,742        405,483 55.1%          328,125 44.6%          2,134 0.3%
1980   737,715        334,206 45.3%          367,462 49.8%          36,047* 4.9%
1976   750,964        314,760 41.9%          435,914 58.0%          290    0.1%
1972   762,399        484,964 63.6%          277,435 36.4%          --     --
1968   754,206        307,555 40.8%          374,091 49.6%          72,560** 9.6%
1964   792,040        253,953 32.1%          538,087 67.9%          --     --
1960   837,781        395,995 47.3%          441,786 52.7%          --     --

^ Nader 10,680 1.6%; ##Perot 71,639 11.3%; #Perot 108,829 15.9%; *Anderson 31,691; **
Wallace 72,560

Outlook
In 2000, the Bush campaign surprised Al Gore by carrying West Virginia, which has
traditionally been fairly safe Democratic territory. Focusing on cultural conservatives,
however, the Bush campaign spent millions in the state, visited often and essentially had
the state wrapped up before the Gore campaign even noticed things were close.
Determined to let the same thing happen in 2004, the Kerry-Edwards campaign is paying
close attention to the state.

In 2000, Bush took advantage of those who felt new environmental protection laws
would hamper the state’s coal production. Gore was caught between the Clinton
administration rules and the West Virginia congressional delegation (all Democrats)
which opposed it. Bush also berated Gore for his support for gun control and abortion
rights.

This year, Kerry has tried assiduously to avoid those past mistakes. The campaign has
courted West Virginia’s popular senior senator, Robert Byrd, and he is making more
efforts on Kerry’s behalf than he did for Gore, including appearing in television ads for
the campaign. Kerry has touted his love of hunting; he has been photographed
extensively shooting skeet. His campaign is also handing out fliers stating, “John Kerry
was proud to receive a union-made Remington shotgun from United Mine Workers
President Cecil Roberts.” Despite his environmental record, Kerry has tried at least to
neutralize the coal issue and is touting his endorsement from the United Mine Workers.
Kerry has also poured money into the state, spending $200K a week on ads there and
making West Virginia one of the campaign’s top ten advertising stops.

Hoping to undo Kerry’s efforts, Bush-Cheney has also targeted the state, spending time
and approximately equal ad dollars there. 527s are entering the fray on his behalf.
Americans for Coal Jobs Voter Fund (ACJ) is running ads in the state (and in Ohio and
Pennsylvania) criticizing Kerry for his record on coal and the Swift Boat Veterans for
Truth ads have run heavily in the state. The NRA is also running ads in heavy rotation
attacking Kerry’s record on guns. The campaign has also turned nasty, with the
Republican National Committee distributing leaflets in the state warning voters that, if
elected, liberals will ban the Bible. On the other side, MoveOn.org spent $77,680 in
August alone on ads that encouraged voters to fire President Bush.

As in 2000, the main issues in the state appear to be the economy and conservative
values. The only addition this year is the war in Iraq: many West Virginians express
major reservations about the US’s actions there and that may help Kerry. The main
cultural issue may be gay marriage, which Republicans, right-leaning 527s and many
churches have successfully hung around Kerry’s neck. A group called Americans United
to Preserve Marriage led by Gary Bauer is running $500,000 worth of ads saying Kerry
opposed efforts to stop gay marriage in Massachusetts. On the economic front, after
losing jobs during the recession, the state is back on track, essentially where it stood in
January 2001 (735,500 in January 2001 to 734,300 in August 2004) but Kerry may have
luck appealing to those whose jobs have not returned.

In the past, Democrats have held the southern counties while Republicans have done
better in the north. The main bellweathers are Harrison county in the center, Summers in
the South (where Bush won by five votes in 2000) and those in the eastern panhandle,
such as Berkeley county. Gore lost West Virginia by 40,000 votes in 2000 and news
reports indicate that the state has registered roughly 16,000 new Democrats and 8,000
new Republicans this year. As of October 14, the Kerry campaign pulled its ads and
cancelled a visit. Despite this, the campaign says it will keep watching the state and will
make a final determination about advertising in one week.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as in Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 9 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 6 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,225 (ranks #39)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 6
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 4

Polls
BUSH          KERRY         POLL                      DATE      MoE
51            45            CNN/USA Today/Gallup      9/17-20   5
46            46            American Research Group   9/14-16   4
                                      WISCONSIN
Overview
Electoral College votes: 10
Polls Close: 9pm EST
Voting Age Population: 4,139,000 (FEC July 2003). Voters do not register by party.
* Registration is allowed on Election Day.

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   2,598,607      1,237,279 47.6%        1,242,987 47.8%        118,341^ 4.6%
1996   2,196,169      845,029 38.5%          1,071,971 48.8%        279,169## 12.7%
1992   2,531,114      930,855 36.8%          1,041,066 41.1%        559,193# 22.1%
1988   2,191,608      1,047,499 48%          1,126,794 51.4%        17,315 0.6%
1984   2,211,689      1,198,584 54.2%        995,740 45.0%          17,365 0.8%
1980   2,273,221      1,088,845 47.9%        981,584 43.2%          202,792* 8.9%
1976   2,104,175      1,004,987 47.8%        1,040,232 49.4%        58,956 2.8%
1972   1,852,890      989,430   53.4%        810,174 43.7%          53,286 2.9%
1968   1,691,538      809,997   47.9%        748,804 44.3%          132,737** 7.8%
1964   1,691,815      638,495   37.7%        1,050,424 62.1%        2,896 0.2%
1960   1,729,082      895,175   51.8%        830,805 48.0%          3,102 0.2%

^ Nader 94,070 3.6%; ##Perot 227,339 10.4%; #Perot 544,479 21.5%; *Anderson 160,657; **
Wallace 127,835

Outlook
Wisconsin has two very different political impulses. On one hand, the state has a history
of progressive public policy, the heritage of Robert LaFollette and a strong social safety
net, which pushes it toward the Democrat camp today. On the other hand, it has strong
German background, the heritage of Joseph McCarthy and a strong culture of small
business, which tend toward Republicans today. In 1986, the state elected a reformist
Republican as Governor but also selected two fairly liberal Democratic Senators in the
1990s. Those competing urges help explain why Wisconsin went for Al Gore by only
5,708 votes, 0.2% of the vote in 2000.

Because it looks winnable, both sides have concentrated on the state. Kerry has visited
the state 19 times, similar to his trips to another Democratic must-win: Pennsylvania.
Bush has visited nine times, similar to his trips to other top targets like Michigan and
West Virginia. Bush also appointed popular Gov. Tommy Thompson, who led the
popular Welfare to Work (“W-2”) reform initiative in the state, as his Secretary of Health
and Human Services. The two main issues are the economy and the war in Iraq.

Economically, neither side has much traction: the state lost about 50,000 jobs during
Bush’s term but it has since regained them and the unemployment rate, at 4.8%, is below
the national average. On the other hand, the gains have been uneven. The state has lost
67,500 manufacturing jobs (584,100 in January 2001 to 516,600 in August 2004) and
dairy farms, once the backbone of the state’s economy, have also not rebounded strongly.
Hoping to exploit that fact, the Democratic National Committee began running ads on
that subject in the state on October 7.

In terms of the war in Iraq, voters in Wisconsin have an isolationist streak stretching back
to the days of LaFollette. The war has proved unpopular but, as in other states, Kerry has
not benefited from that.

Wisconsin’s prominence, like Florida’s, is illustrated by the amount of advertising dollars
spent there. In one week in mid-October, Bush spent $$816,439 to Kerry’s $1,014,825,
and from September 3 through October 3, the campaigns spent more than $3 million
dollars in the state. And that does not include outside groups, who are also active.
Republican 527 Progress for America Voter Fund spent $77,000 to run ads in Wisconsin
and Iowa in one day (September 14). That same day, the Democratic-leaning Service
Employees International Union spent $29,000 in the state. TNS Media/CMAG ranked
the state fifth in television advertising but, to underline Wisconsin’s growing importance,
research from the Center for Public Integrity shows that outside groups spent more in the
state between June and September than anywhere else.

Wisconsin’s presidential vote may also be affected by the competitive senate race
between Democratic Senator Russ Feingold and Republican businessman Tim Michels.
Republicans had hoped to field either Health and Human Service Services Secretary
Tommy Thompson or Rep. Paul Ryan, but both rejected overtures. Michels, using his
own fortune, has been surprisingly successful. Although the race will likely go Feingold’s
way, Michel’s focus on the Patriot Act (he supports it, Feingold cast the lone vote against
it) has kept the spotlight on the war on terror, which may or may not hurt Kerry.

And, finally, a notable Kerry gaffe: Speaking in August, Kerry mispronounced the name
of Lambeau Field, the home of the Green Bay Packers, calling it Lambert Field (the name
of the old St. Louis airport). The Bush-Cheney campaign has used this as evidence of
Kerry’s aloofness to good effect in the state.

In 2000, unlike most states where Bush did not do well in the cities, Bush carried metro
Milwaukee and its suburban counties. Gore, also bucking national trends, carried some
traditional Republican counties and rural areas near eastern Iowa. The Republican
stronghold is in the far north and the eastern half of the state. Western Wisconsin, where
Madison is located, is the Democratic base. To keep the state, Kerry must (a) win another
large majority in Madison and (b) run even in Milwaukee. To regain the state, Bush must
(a) to run slightly better in Milwaukee’s suburbs and (b) turn out his base voters.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Visits in 2004
Bush 6 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 19 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:
**Will probably rank #5 in total TV advertising dollars spent**

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 1,642 (ranks #30)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 21
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls
BUSH          KERRY          POLL                          DATE     MoE
49            46             CNN/USA Today/Gallup          10/3-5   4
47            45             Moore Information (R)         10/5-6   4
44            48             Lake Snell Perry (D)          10/3-5   4
                                      WYOMING
Overview
Electoral College votes: 3
Polls Close: 9pm EST
Voting Age Population: 380,000 (FEC July 2003)
Registered Voters Total: 206,039; Registered Democrats: 57,062; Registered
Republicans: 129,606; Registered Voters Unaffiliated/Minor Parties: 19,371

Past Presidential Election Results
       TOTAL          REPUBLICAN             DEMOCRATIC             OTHER
2000   218,351        147,947 67.8%          60,481 27.7%           5,298^2.4%
1996   211,571        105,388 49.8%          77,934 36.8%           28,249## 13.4%
1992   200,598        79,347 40.0%           68,160 34.0%           53,091# 26.5%
1988   176,551        106,867 60.5%          67,113 38%             2,571 1.5%
1984   188,968        133,241 70.5%          53,370 28.3%           2,357 1.2%
1980   176,713        110,700 62.6%          49,427 28.0%           16,586*9.4%
1976   156,343        92,717 59.3%           62,239 39.8%           1,387 0.9%
1972   145,570        100,464 69.0%          44,358 30.5%           748    0.5%
1968   127,205        70,927 55.8%           45,173 35.5%           11,105** 8.7%
1964   142,716        61,998 43.4%           80,718 56.6%           --     --
1960   140,782        77,451 55.0%           63,331 45.0%           --     --

^ Nader 4,625 2.1%; ##Perot 25,928 12.3%; #Perot 51,263 25.6%; *Anderson 12,072; **Wallace
11,105

Outlook
Wyoming is one of the least likely states to provide a serious contest in the presidential
election. It is very Republican, very remote, and has only 3 electoral votes. It is also
home to Vice President Dick Cheney. In 2000, Bush overwhelmingly won the state 69%
to 28%.

Wyoming does have a Democratic governor as well as two Republican senators. There
are no other major issues on the ballot this year in the state.

The Nader Factor: Nader is on the ballot as an Independent.

Presidential Activity in the State
Bush 0 (as of 9/23/04)
Kerry 0 (as of 10/11/04)

Presidential Television Advertising
Bush-Cheney:
Kerry-Edwards:

Military Statistics
National Guard on Duty (9/22/04): 388 (ranks #47)
Fatalities in Iraq (9/25/04): 4
Fatalities in Afghanistan (9/25/04): 1

Polls
BUSH           KERRY          POLL                      DATE     MoE
65             29             American Research Group   9/9-11   4

				
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