Energy Development in China
- From a View Point of Sustainable
Development
Yang Hongwei, Zhou Dadi
Energy Research Institute, P. R. China
yanghw@mx.cei.gov.cn
SBSTA in-session workshop on climate mitigation
Hotel Maritim, Bonn, Germany
19 June 2004
World Energy Trend
IEA, 2003. (Mtoe)
1971 2000 2010 2020 2030
Coal 1449 2355 2702 3154 3606
Oil 2450 3604 4272 5020 5769
Natural gas 895 2085 2794 3498 4203
Nuclear power 29 674 753 728 703
Hydropower 104 228 274 320 366
Other renewables 73 233 336 477 618
Total 5000 9179 11131 13198 15265
IPCC scenarios (Mtoe)
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Coal 2228 3003-4235 3836-5504 4666-7186 4738-8227 4872-9457
Oil 3854 4214-5280 4223-6922 4050-9201 3625-11273 3273-13903
Natural gas 2473 2928-3481 3653-4922 4471-6813 5402-9486 6619-13369
Nuclear power 230 268-371 327-726 359-1275 547-1933 911-2930
Bio-energy 1139 897 900-1470 1280-2080 1890-3070 2870-4600
Other renewables 271 300-360 370-550 530-960 760-1960 1140-3990
Total 10193 12100-13400 14100-17000 16500-21400 18900-26400 21300-31200
Stable increase in world energy demand and consumption
Fossil fuel as dominant energy resource in the following
decades
Impacts of technology development on future energy
utilization
Role of environment in energy development is becoming more
important
Environmental issue has played an important role in the
energy development of many countries, as one of the most
important reasons why many countries selected oil and
natural gas as major energy sources
Climate change will exert important influence on long term
energy development in many countries
Different situation for energy
development
Oil & natural gas dominant period?
Optimization of final consumption has completed?
Local environmental protection: strict standard,
higher environmental cost?
Constraints for nuclear power development?
China is a developing country
Per capita GDP is only about 1,000 US dollars
Per capita commercial energy consumption is
only 1 tce
More than 60% people live in the rural area,
living on the agriculture
Need another 50 years to become a middle level
developed country
Per capita GDP in 1999 in some countries（US$）
(1995 constant price).
Pre capita living areas (m2)
Per capita car ownership
Per capita steel production (kg/person)
Social economic development, the
highest priority
Economic development is and will be the
dominant social target;
To be a middle level developed country by the
middle of this century;
High economic growth rate is expected, needed,
and possible for longer period
Long process for
industrialization
Industrialization is still the main course of
economic and social development for decades
Manufacture industry will keep increase
Urbanization will be speed up, with more than 1%
population moving into cities each year
Need more job for young people and farmers, 10
million new positions needed annually
Infrastructure construction is far from completed
Energy consumption and GHG emission
will increase for many years
TPE consumption in China will be doubled or increase
even more in the next two decades
Per capita energy consumption will be close to the world
average by around 2020
Per capita GHG emission still much lower than that from
developed countries
Energy consumption in China remains at very low level
compared to many other countries
Trend of China’s energy development is within the very
normal range, compared to the development history of
other countries
Per capita emissions (t-C)
Per capita GDP (1000 US$)
Emission intensity (t-C/1000 US$)
Per capita GDP (1000 US$)
Continuous efforts on
sustainable development
Efforts include activities in many fields
Outstanding achievement in energy efficiency
Efforts on developing energy alternatives
Efforts on forestry protection and reforestation
Enhance local environment protection
Land management to promote sinks
Energy efficiency
improvement
Promulgated Energy Conservation Law
Developed energy conservation plans for each of the 5
years’ development plans
Issued associated energy conservation policy and
regulations
Established comprehensive energy conservation
management and service system
Issued technical guidance for energy conservation
Developed and enforced series of energy conservation
standards
Initiated national energy conservation programs
Achievement in energy
efficiency
Average GDP annual growth rate 9.7% from 1980 to
2000, energy consumption increased 3.9% annually
Kept the energy consumption elasticity coefficient around
0.5 from 1980 to 2000,
Energy intensity decreased more than 5% annually in the
same period, (1.1% in average for the world)
More than billion tons of fossil fuel saved
Action in renewables
By the end of 2000，small and mini hydro up to
23.799 GW, generating power 77.2 TWh
Widely use of solar heaters all over the country
Development of PV, especially for power supply
in remote areas
Future development
The elasticity of industrial energy consumption can be
obviously less than that of other sectors, especially in the
energy-intensive industries
Substantial progress could be made in optimizing energy mix
through speeding-up the development of natural gas,
hydropower, nuclear power and full utilization of the
international oil & gas resources
Accelerating the optimization of energy mix will promote
energy efficiency improvement, reduce energy demand and
improve energy supply security
Environmental issue will play a more and more important role
in China’s future energy development
The growth rate of GHG emission can be mitigated by
strengthening the enforcement of sustainable energy strategy