Income Statement Support
($ in thousands, except per share data - FYE Dec) Actual Estimated Projected
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Projection Drivers
Depreciation & Amortization 415 389 391 413 438 470 404 411 464 % Total Revenue
% Revenue Growth
Passenger 13.2% 17.3% 8.3% 5.7% (19.0)% 7.3% 10.6% 12.0%
Total Mainline 11.9% 16.4% 10.9% 5.5% (18.4)% 6.8% 9.7% 12.2%
Domestic 5.8% 13.4% 5.9% (1.7)% (20.0)% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Transatlantic 26.9% 20.3% 23.6% 15.8% (25.0)% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
Latin America 11.1% 23.8% 12.4% 15.9% (10.0)% 10.0% 15.0% 17.5%
Pacific 24.3% 15.6% 9.7% 4.3% (5.0)% 2.5% 10.0% 15.0%
Regional 19.5% 21.2% (3.1)% 6.9% (22.0)% 10.0% 15.0% 11.3%
Cargo 6.4% 9.9% (0.9)% 9.7% (30.0)% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Keep constant
Other 19.5% 19.9% 17.4% 28.4% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
Total Net Sales 11.6% 13.2% 17.1% 8.4% 7.1% (17.8)% 7.6% 11.0% 12.7%
Ratio & Margin Analysis (% of Revenue)
Sales
Passenger 1% 91.3% 91.3% 91.4% 91.3% 90.1% 88.8% 88.5% 88.2% 87.7% Increase 50 bps
Total Mainline 0% 75.5% 74.6% 74.1% 75.8% 74.7% 74.1% 73.5% 72.7% 72.4% Increase 20 bps
Domestic 1% 45.6% 42.6% 41.2% 40.3% 37.0% 36.0% 35.1% 33.2% 30.9% Keep constant
Transatlantic 13.8% 15.5% 15.9% 18.1% 19.6% 17.9% 18.3% 18.9% 20.1%
Latin America 9.9% 9.7% 10.2% 10.6% 11.5% 12.6% 12.9% 13.3% 13.9%
Pacific 6.2% 6.9% 6.8% 6.8% 6.7% 7.7% 7.3% 7.3% 7.4%
Regional 15.9% 16.7% 17.3% 15.5% 15.5% 14.7% 15.0% 15.5% 15.3%
Cargo 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7%
Other 4.7% 5.0% 5.1% 5.5% 6.6% 8.4% 8.6% 8.9% 9.5%
Total Net Sales 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Expenses
Wages & Salaries -1% 28.5% 23.6% 21.9% 22.0% 19.4% 25.0% 22.0% 21.0% 19.0% Decrease 50 bps
Aircraft Fuel & Taxes 0% 16.0% 21.8% 23.1% 23.6% 32.2% 22.0% 25.0% 25.3% 25.5% Increase 20 bps
Aircraft Rentals -1% 9.0% 8.3% 7.5% 6.2% 6.4% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% Decrease 75 bps
Landing Fees & Other Rentals 0% 6.6% 6.3% 5.8% 5.6% 5.6% 6.5% 6.3% 6.0% 5.8% Decrease 25 bps
0%
Commissions & Other Distribution Costs 5.6% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% Constant
Maintenance, Materials, & Repairs 0% 4.2% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.0% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% Constant
D&A 4.2% 3.5% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 3.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8%
Other Operating Expenses 0% 28.3% 27.5% 26.0% 25.8% 26.9% 27.5% 26.0% 26.3% 26.5% Increase 25 bps
Extraordinary Items
Interest Expense 0% (3.9)% (3.7)% (3.1)% (2.7)% (2.4)% (3.0)% (2.9)% (2.7)% (2.6)% Decrease 15 bps
Interest Capitalized 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Keep constant
Interest Income 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% Keep constant
Gains on Sale of Investments 0.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Keep constant
Others, Net 1.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.3% (1.2)% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Margins
EBIT Margin (2.4)% (0.3)% 3.6% 4.8% (2.1)% (1.8)% 1.3% 2.8% 5.0%
EBITDAR Margin 10.8% 11.4% 14.1% 13.9% 7.2% 9.5% 11.3% 12.0% 13.8%
Net Margin (4.1)% (0.6)% 2.6% 3.2% (3.8)% (3.1)% (0.1)% 1.4% 3.5%
Effective Tax Rate 1% 8.9% 0.0% 7.0% 18.9% 14.5% 5.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% Keep constant
Change in Working Capital Requirements
2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Keep constant
% of D Revenue 26 33 48 28 25 (68) 24 37 47
Continental Airlines (CAL)
Proforma Income Statement
Blue: Inputs & Assumptions Current Price:$ 16.44
Black: Formulas (Do not edit) Last Update: 11/30/09
($ in millions, except per share data - FYE Dec) Actual Estimated Projected
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Projection Drivers
Net Sales
Passenger $ 9,042 $ 10,235 $ 12,003 $ 12,995 $ 13,737 $ 11,121 $ 11,935 $ 13,203 $ 14,791 % Total Revenue
Total Mainline $ 7,471 $ 8,358 $ 9,729 $ 10,792 $ 11,382 $ 9,284 $ 9,915 $ 10,879 $ 12,205
Domestic 4,510 4,772 5,413 5,731 5,633 4,506 4,732 4,968 5,217
Transatlantic 1,366 1,733 2,085 2,577 2,983 2,237 2,461 2,830 3,396
Latin America 977 1,085 1,343 1,510 1,750 1,575 1,733 1,992 2,341
Pacific 618 768 888 974 1,016 965 989 1,088 1,252
Regional $ 1,571 $ 1,877 $ 2,274 $ 2,203 $ 2,355 1,837 2,021 2,324 2,585
Cargo 391 416 457 453 497 348 383 421 463 % Total Revenue
Other 466 557 668 784 1,007 1,057 1,163 1,338 1,605 % Total Revenue
Total Net Sales 8870 $ 9,899 $ 11,208 $ 13,128 $ 14,232 $ 15,241 $ 12,526 $ 13,481 $ 14,961 $ 16,859 % Growth
Growth Rate 11.6% 13.2% 17.1% 8.4% 7.1% (17.8)% 7.6% 11.0% 12.7%
Expenses
Wages & Salaries $ 2,819 $ 2,649 $ 2,875 $ 3,127 $ 2,957 $ 3,132 $ 2,966 $ 3,142 $ 3,203 % Total Revenue
Aircraft Fuel & Taxes 1,587 2,443 3,034 3,354 4,905 2,756 3,370 3,778 4,299
Aircraft Rentals 891 928 990 884 976 939 944 972 1,012
Landing Fees & Other Rentals 654 708 764 790 853 814 843 898 969
Commissions & Other Distribution Costs 552 588 650 682 717 595 640 711 801
Maintenance, Materials, & Repairs 414 455 547 621 612 595 640 711 801
D&A 415 389 391 413 438 470 404 411 464 % Total Revenue
Other Operating Expenses 2,805 3,087 3,409 3,674 4,097 3,445 3,505 3,927 4,468
Total Expenses $ 10,137 $ 11,247 $ 12,660 $ 13,545 $ 15,555 $ 12,745 $ 13,312 $ 14,550 $ 16,016 Sum
-43.82% 22.30% 12.09% 13.80%
Operating Income (EBIT) $ (238) $ (39) $ 468 $ 687 $ (314) $ (219) $ 169 $ 411 $ 843 Revenue - Expenses
Interest Expense (389) (410) (401) (383) (365) (376) (384) (404) (430) Constant Cap Structure
Interest Capitalized 14 12 18 27 33 25 27 30 34
Interest Income 29 72 131 160 65 94 101 112 126
Gains on Sale of Investments - 106 92 37 78 63 67 75 84
Others, Net 135 191 61 38 (181) - - - -
Pre-Tax Income $ (449) $ (68) $ 369 $ 566 $ (684) $ (413) $ (20) $ 224 $ 657 Sum
Income Tax (Expense) 40 - (26) (107) 99 21 2 (22) (66) % of Pre-Tax Income
Net Income $ (409) $ (68) $ 343 $ 459 $ (585) $ (393) $ (18) $ 202 $ 592 Sum
Diluted Shares Outstanding 66.1 70.3 111.4 114.0 138.5 153.0 153 153 153 Constant Cap Structure
Diluted Earnings Per Share $ (6.19) $ (0.97) $ 3.08 $ 4.03 $ (4.23) $ (2.57) $ (0.12) $ 1.32 $ 3.87
$ (3.28) (0.55)
Diluted Earnings Per Share from Continuing Op. (After$Tax) $ 3.91 $ 4.89 $ (1.94) $ (1.36) $ 0.99 $ 2.42 $ 4.96
EBITDAR $ 1,068 $ 1,278 $ 1,849 $ 1,984 $ 1,100 $ 1,190 $ 1,517 $ 1,795 $ 2,318 EBIT + D&A
EBITDAR Margin 10.8% 11.4% 14.1% 13.9% 7.2% 9.5% 11.3% 12.0% 13.8% % of Revenue
Report #:DOE/EIA-0383(2009)
Release date: March 2009
Next release date, early release: November 2009
Table 12. Petroleum Product Prices
(2007 cents per gallon, unless otherwise noted)
2006 2007 2008
Crude Oil Prices (2007 dollars per barrel)
Imported Low-Sulfur Light Crude Oil 1/ 67.82 72.33 99.08
Imported Crude Oil 1/ 60.70 63.83 98.52
Delivered Sector Product Prices
Residential
Liquefied Petroleum Gases 205.0 213.6 242.7
Distillate Fuel Oil 256.1 272.7 330.0
Commercial
Distillate Fuel Oil 207.7 221.7 287.6
Residual Fuel Oil 132.9 152.9 200.0
Residual Fuel Oil (2007 dollars per barrel) 55.84 64.22 83.98
Industrial 2/
Liquefied Petroleum Gases 180.6 199.9 218.2
Distillate Fuel Oil 217.8 232.3 300.4
Residual Fuel Oil 137.9 157.1 205.0
Residual Fuel Oil (2007 dollars per barrel) 57.92 65.98 86.10
Transportation
Liquefied Petroleum Gases 191.4 213.8 243.3
Ethanol (E85) 3/ 242.1 253.0 321.1
Ethanol Wholesale Price 257.0 212.4 239.3
Motor Gasoline 4/ 270.7 282.2 320.5
Jet Fuel 5/ 205.8 217.3 297.5
Diesel Fuel (distillate fuel oil) 6/ 278.6 287.0 372.3
Residual Fuel Oil 122.8 140.0 205.6
Residual Fuel Oil (2007 dollars per barrel) 51.59 58.80 86.36
Electric Power 7/
Distillate Fuel Oil 191.0 204.9 264.2
Residual Fuel Oil 125.4 125.4 206.1
Residual Fuel Oil (2007 dollars per barrel) 52.67 52.67 86.56
Refined Petroleum Product Prices 8/
Liquefied Petroleum Gases 134.4 158.5 167.5
Motor Gasoline 4/ 269.0 280.2 318.5
Jet Fuel 5/ 205.8 217.3 297.5
Distillate Fuel Oil 264.3 274.5 353.5
Residual Fuel Oil 126.1 138.4 205.4
Residual Fuel Oil (2007 dollars per barrel) 52.97 58.15 86.26
Average 235.1 249.1 298.2
Prices in Nominal Dollars
Crude Oil Prices (nominal dollars per barrel)
Imported Low-Sulfur Light Crude Oil 1/ 66.04 72.33 101.46
Imported Crude Oil 1/ 59.10 63.83 100.88
Delivered Sector Product Prices
Nominal Cents per Gallon
Residential
Liquefied Petroleum Gases 199.6 213.6 248.5
Distillate Fuel Oil 249.4 272.7 337.9
Commercial
Distillate Fuel Oil 202.2 221.7 294.5
Residual Fuel Oil 129.5 152.9 204.8
Industrial 2/
Liquefied Petroleum Gases 175.9 199.9 223.4
Distillate Fuel Oil 212.1 232.3 307.6
Residual Fuel Oil 134.3 157.1 209.9
Transportation
Liquefied Petroleum Gases 186.3 213.8 249.2
Ethanol (E85) 3/ 235.7 253.0 328.9
Ethanol Wholesale Price 250.2 212.4 245.0
Motor Gasoline 4/ 263.6 282.2 328.3
Jet Fuel 5/ 200.4 217.3 304.6
Diesel Fuel (distillate fuel oil) 6/ 271.3 287.0 381.3
Residual Fuel Oil 119.6 140.0 210.6
Electric Power 7/
Distillate Fuel Oil 186.0 204.9 270.6
Residual Fuel Oil 122.1 125.4 211.0
Refined Petroleum Product Prices 8/
Liquefied Petroleum Gases 130.9 158.5 171.5
Motor Gasoline 4/ 261.9 280.2 326.1
Jet Fuel 5/ 200.4 217.3 304.6
Distillate Fuel Oil 257.3 274.5 362.0
Residual Fuel Oil (nominal dollars per barrel) 51.58 58.15 88.34
Average 228.9 249.1 305.3
1/ Weighted average price delivered to U.S. refiners.
2/ Includes energy for combined heat and power plants, except those whose primary business is to sell ele
3/ E85 refers to a blend of 85 percent ethanol (renewable) and 15 percent motor gasoline (nonrenewable).
seasonally. The annual average ethanol content of 74 percent is used for this forecast.
4/ Sales weighted-average price for all grades. Includes Federal, State, and local taxes.
5/ Includes only kerosene type.
6/ Diesel fuel for on-road use. Includes Federal and State taxes while excluding county and local taxes.
7/ Includes electricity-only and combined heat and power plants whose primary business is to sell electricit
producers and exempt wholesale generators.
8/ Weighted averages of end-use fuel prices are derived from the prices in each sector and the correspond
Note: Data for 2006 and 2007 are model results and may differ slightly from official EIA data reports.
Sources: 2006 and 2007 imported low sulfur light crude oil price: Energy Information Administration (EIA)
2006 and 2007 imported crude oil price: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2007, DOE/EIA-0384(2007) (Washingt
distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel are based on: EIA, Petroleum Marketing Annual 2007, DOE/EIA-0487(2007) (W
commercial, industrial, and transportation sector petroleum product prices are derived from: EIA, Form EIA-
Sales Report." 2006 and 2007 electric power prices based on: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, FE
for Electric Plants." 2006 and 2007 E85 prices derived from monthly prices in the Clean Cities Alternative Fu
derived from Bloomburg U.S. average rack price. Projections: EIA, AEO2009 National Energy Modeling Sys
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
60.89 80.16 88.17 97.01 101.89 107.03 110.49
-0.39 0.32 0.10 0.10 0.05
58.61 77.56 85.58 94.84 99.75 104.96 108.52
191.1 221.1 235.0 251.2 259.9 269.3 275.6
254.3 259.2 276.3 298.7 306.1 318.0 327.1
221.7 222.8 243.6 266.2 275.9 289.2 298.3
101.2 164.2 184.7 208.5 219.8 232.6 241.3
42.52 68.96 77.56 87.55 92.30 97.71 101.34
160.5 186.7 200.5 216.6 225.3 234.7 241.1
230.2 220.2 247.1 268.6 279.9 294.2 303.3
104.8 230.2 248.0 272.5 284.0 297.2 305.9
44.00 96.70 104.15 114.45 119.27 124.82 128.46
192.1 219.5 233.3 249.7 258.3 267.6 273.9
318.6 241.7 258.4 271.6 281.6 249.7 242.0
239.3 192.8 215.3 208.3 188.5 211.8 210.8
228.2 283.9 302.4 317.4 326.8 338.7 347.7
197.4 216.5 239.0 260.1 270.2 282.2 290.0
263.0 274.9 297.0 318.2 329.8 343.9 352.7
118.3 181.1 200.1 223.7 234.5 247.1 255.6
49.70 76.07 84.04 93.96 98.47 103.76 107.37
202.6 209.2 225.4 247.8 255.2 267.0 276.0
119.9 197.7 216.6 240.3 251.3 263.9 272.3
50.34 83.03 90.97 100.95 105.55 110.82 114.35
151.4 179.2 192.1 206.6 214.6 223.3 229.4
228.9 283.9 302.4 317.4 326.8 338.7 347.7
197.4 216.5 239.0 260.1 270.2 282.2 290.0
255.1 260.9 283.3 306.0 318.4 332.6 341.5
116.0 189.6 207.9 231.8 242.8 255.6 264.0
48.70 79.62 87.33 97.35 101.97 107.33 110.88
218.1 254.9 274.0 291.2 301.1 313.0 321.6
63.46 84.42 94.13 105.35 112.93 121.15 127.84
61.09 81.69 91.37 102.99 110.56 118.82 125.57
199.2 232.9 250.9 272.8 288.0 304.8 318.9
265.1 273.0 295.0 324.4 339.3 360.0 378.5
231.0 234.6 260.1 289.1 305.8 327.3 345.1
105.5 172.9 197.2 226.4 243.6 263.3 279.2
167.3 196.6 214.1 235.3 249.7 265.7 278.9
239.9 231.9 263.8 291.7 310.2 333.0 351.0
109.2 242.5 264.7 295.9 314.8 336.4 353.9
200.2 231.2 249.1 271.2 286.3 302.9 316.9
332.1 254.5 275.9 294.9 312.2 282.6 280.0
249.4 203.1 229.8 226.2 208.9 239.8 243.9
237.9 299.0 322.9 344.7 362.2 383.4 402.4
205.8 228.0 255.2 282.4 299.5 319.5 335.6
274.1 289.6 317.1 345.6 365.5 389.3 408.1
123.3 190.8 213.6 242.9 259.9 279.7 295.8
211.1 220.4 240.6 269.1 282.9 302.2 319.3
124.9 208.2 231.2 261.0 278.5 298.7 315.0
157.8 188.7 205.1 224.4 237.9 252.7 265.4
238.6 299.0 322.8 344.7 362.2 383.4 402.3
205.8 228.0 255.2 282.4 299.5 319.5 335.6
265.9 274.7 302.4 332.3 352.9 376.4 395.2
50.76 83.86 93.24 105.72 113.02 121.50 128.30
227.3 268.5 292.5 316.2 333.7 354.3 372.1
usiness is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public.
ine (nonrenewable). To address cold starting issues, the percentage of ethanol varies
y and local taxes.
ss is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. Includes small power
r and the corresponding sectoral consumption.
A data reports.
Administration (EIA), Form EIA-856, "Monthly Foreign Crude Oil Acquisition Report."
84(2007) (Washington, DC, June 2008). 2006 and 2007 prices for motor gasoline,
E/EIA-0487(2007) (Washington, DC, August 2008). 2006 and 2007 residential,
om: EIA, Form EIA-782A, "Refiners'/Gas Plant Operators' Monthly Petroleum Product
ory Commission, FERC Form 423, "Monthly Report of Cost and Quality of Fuels
Cities Alternative Fuel Price Report. 2006 and 2007 wholesale ethanol prices
Energy Modeling System run aeo2009.d120908a.
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
111.78 112.79 113.71 114.91 115.45 117.32 118.42
109.77 110.73 111.58 112.50 112.05 112.33 114.09
277.9 279.0 280.0 281.7 281.1 282.9 284.8
329.8 330.4 331.3 333.3 334.3 335.6 338.3
300.3 300.8 302.2 304.1 304.9 306.7 310.3
244.7 246.6 248.6 251.6 249.7 253.0 255.7
102.78 103.58 104.43 105.65 104.88 106.24 107.38
243.2 244.3 245.2 246.7 246.0 248.2 249.8
304.9 305.4 307.3 309.1 309.6 311.8 316.2
308.7 310.1 311.4 313.6 313.4 315.2 318.2
129.64 130.23 130.80 131.72 131.64 132.40 133.64
276.0 277.1 278.0 279.5 278.9 280.6 282.4
249.1 270.3 273.4 276.0 278.0 279.4 279.4
206.3 202.2 205.3 199.3 201.1 202.6 204.2
351.1 353.8 356.3 358.1 359.9 362.9 366.2
293.0 294.9 296.4 299.7 299.1 300.8 303.6
353.5 353.7 355.5 356.5 356.8 359.3 363.7
258.6 259.9 260.8 262.8 261.4 263.8 266.4
108.61 109.17 109.54 110.36 109.80 110.79 111.89
278.6 279.2 280.4 282.6 283.6 285.7 288.6
274.9 276.1 277.0 279.0 277.7 280.7 283.3
115.46 115.96 116.36 117.18 116.64 117.89 118.99
231.7 233.1 234.5 236.1 235.7 236.9 239.5
351.1 353.8 356.3 358.1 359.9 362.8 366.2
293.0 294.9 296.4 299.7 299.1 300.8 303.6
342.9 343.1 344.9 346.4 346.8 349.2 353.6
266.9 268.2 269.1 271.1 269.8 272.3 274.9
112.09 112.63 113.04 113.88 113.34 114.37 115.48
324.4 326.3 328.4 330.3 331.1 333.5 336.7
132.24 136.43 140.65 145.37 149.14 154.21 157.99
129.87 133.94 138.01 142.33 144.74 147.64 152.22
328.7 337.5 346.4 356.3 363.1 371.9 380.0
390.2 399.6 409.8 421.7 431.8 441.1 451.4
355.3 363.8 373.8 384.7 393.8 403.1 414.0
289.5 298.3 307.6 318.2 322.6 332.5 341.1
287.8 295.5 303.3 312.1 317.8 326.2 333.3
360.8 369.4 380.2 391.0 400.0 409.9 421.9
365.2 375.1 385.2 396.8 404.9 414.3 424.5
326.6 335.2 343.9 353.7 360.3 368.8 376.8
294.7 326.9 338.2 349.1 359.1 367.2 372.8
244.1 244.5 253.9 252.2 259.8 266.3 272.4
415.4 428.0 440.7 453.0 464.9 476.9 488.6
346.6 356.7 366.6 379.1 386.4 395.4 405.1
418.3 427.8 439.7 451.0 460.9 472.2 485.2
305.9 314.4 322.6 332.4 337.7 346.7 355.4
329.7 337.7 346.9 357.5 366.4 375.5 385.0
325.3 334.0 342.7 353.0 358.8 368.9 378.0
274.1 282.0 290.0 298.6 304.5 311.4 319.5
415.4 427.9 440.7 453.0 464.9 476.9 488.5
346.6 356.7 366.6 379.1 386.4 395.4 405.1
405.7 415.0 426.6 438.2 448.0 459.0 471.8
132.62 136.24 139.82 144.07 146.41 150.33 154.07
383.8 394.7 406.2 417.9 427.7 438.3 449.2
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
119.57 120.60 121.94 123.18 125.10 127.15 128.88
112.97 114.03 115.33 116.49 118.65 120.71 121.97
283.0 284.2 285.9 287.4 290.6 293.9 295.7
336.9 341.1 344.6 347.6 351.7 359.0 364.1
309.4 313.5 318.0 321.6 322.9 331.2 337.4
251.8 253.8 255.6 257.5 260.3 263.4 266.1
105.74 106.60 107.34 108.16 109.33 110.61 111.75
248.2 249.3 250.9 252.3 255.4 258.7 260.4
315.7 320.1 325.0 329.0 328.6 337.6 344.7
315.5 318.3 320.8 322.9 327.3 331.9 334.9
132.49 133.67 134.74 135.64 137.48 139.41 140.66
280.5 281.7 283.2 284.7 287.9 291.1 292.9
279.1 280.3 282.2 283.7 283.7 285.3 282.9
196.8 188.4 189.8 191.2 191.3 193.0 192.4
365.5 367.8 371.1 374.2 377.2 382.0 384.4
302.9 306.1 310.2 313.6 316.5 323.7 329.2
363.1 368.2 372.2 376.1 375.2 384.2 391.3
266.0 268.3 271.5 273.9 279.7 284.7 288.4
111.70 112.70 114.01 115.05 117.47 119.58 121.13
287.7 291.6 295.2 298.3 302.6 309.8 314.8
282.7 285.3 288.3 290.7 295.5 300.4 304.2
118.74 119.83 121.08 122.10 124.11 126.18 127.76
237.7 238.9 240.6 242.1 245.3 248.5 250.3
365.5 367.7 371.1 374.2 377.2 382.0 384.4
302.9 306.1 310.2 313.6 316.5 323.7 329.2
353.2 357.4 362.5 366.5 366.0 375.1 382.3
274.0 276.5 279.5 281.9 287.2 292.1 295.7
115.10 116.15 117.40 118.42 120.62 122.67 124.18
335.9 338.7 342.4 345.6 347.9 354.0 358.1
161.58 164.74 168.24 171.60 176.05 180.71 185.00
152.65 155.76 159.11 162.28 166.98 171.56 175.07
382.5 388.2 394.4 400.4 409.0 417.8 424.5
455.2 465.9 475.4 484.2 495.0 510.2 522.6
418.1 428.3 438.7 448.0 454.5 470.8 484.4
340.2 346.7 352.6 358.7 366.3 374.3 381.9
335.3 340.6 346.2 351.5 359.4 367.6 373.8
426.7 437.2 448.4 458.3 462.4 479.8 494.7
426.3 434.7 442.6 449.9 460.7 471.8 480.7
379.1 384.7 390.8 396.6 405.1 413.8 420.4
377.2 382.9 389.4 395.2 399.2 405.5 406.1
265.9 257.4 261.9 266.3 269.2 274.4 276.2
493.9 502.4 512.0 521.3 530.9 543.0 551.8
409.3 418.1 428.0 436.8 445.4 460.1 472.6
490.7 502.9 513.6 523.9 528.0 546.1 561.6
359.4 366.5 374.5 381.6 393.6 404.7 414.0
388.7 398.4 407.3 415.6 425.8 440.3 451.9
382.0 389.7 397.7 405.0 415.9 427.0 436.6
321.2 326.3 331.9 337.3 345.3 353.2 359.3
493.9 502.3 512.0 521.3 530.8 542.9 551.8
409.3 418.1 428.0 436.8 445.4 460.1 472.6
477.3 488.3 500.1 510.5 515.1 533.1 548.7
155.53 158.66 161.97 164.97 169.75 174.35 178.24
453.9 462.6 472.4 481.5 489.5 503.1 514.0
2007-
2030 2030
130.43 2.6%
124.60 3.0%
300.2 1.5%
369.9 1.3%
340.4 1.9%
269.1 2.5%
113.04 2.5%
265.0 1.2%
345.8 1.7%
340.2 3.4%
142.89 3.4%
297.3 1.4%
285.5 0.5%
193.8 -0.4%
388.4 1.4%
332.4 1.9%
391.7 1.4%
294.1 3.3%
123.54 3.3%
320.5 2.0%
309.5 4.0%
129.98 4.0%
254.5 2.1%
388.4 1.4%
332.4 1.9%
383.2 1.5%
301.1 3.4%
126.47 3.4%
361.4 1.6%
189.10 4.3%
180.66 4.6%
435.2 3.1%
536.3 3.0%
493.5 3.5%
390.2 4.2%
384.2 2.9%
501.4 3.4%
493.3 5.1%
431.0 3.1%
414.0 2.2%
280.9 1.2%
563.1 3.0%
482.0 3.5%
567.9 3.0%
426.5 5.0%
464.7 3.6%
448.7 5.7%
369.1 3.7%
563.1 3.1%
482.0 3.5%
555.7 3.1%
183.36 5.1%
524.0 3.3%
CONTINENTAL AIRLINES, INC. (CAL)
Annual Balance Sheet (FYE 12/31)
Data in millions of USD Actual Estimated Projected
12/31/2003 12/31/2004 12/31/2005 12/31/2006 12/31/2007 12/31/2008 3/31/2009 6/30/2009 9/30/2009 12/31/2009 12/31/2009 12/31/2010 12/31/2011 12/31/2012 12/31/2013 12/31/2014
Assets
Cash & ST Investments 1,600.0 1,669.0 2,198.0 2,749.0 2,982.0 2,833.0 2,821.0 2,935.0 2,706.0 2,868.4 3,003.0 2,990.3 3,111.1 2,868.4 3,040.5 3,183.2
Cash 1,169.0 1,389.0 1,964.0 2,388.0 2,307.0 2,355.0 - - - - 2402.4 2392.2 2488.9 2294.7 2432.4 2546.5
Short Term Investments 431.0 280.0 234.0 361.0 675.0 478.0 - - - - 600.6 598.1 622.2 573.7 608.1 636.6
Receivables (Net) 470.0 553.0 533.0 582.0 606.0 453.0 546.0 488.0 558.0 489.2 528.4 570.6 616.3 665.6 718.9
Inventories - Total 191.0 214.0 201.0 217.0 271.0 235.0 229.0 242.0 245.0 253.8 274.1 296.0 319.7 345.3 372.9
Other Current Assets 325.0 388.0 495.0 581.0 702.0 826.0 170.0 666.0 180.0 827.1 893.2 964.7 1,041.9 1,125.2 1,215.3
Current Assets - Total 2,586.0 2,824.0 3,427.0 4,129.0 4,561.0 4,347.0 4,383.0 4,331.0 4,115.0 4,573.1 4,686.0 4,942.5 4,846.3 5,176.6 5,490.2
Long Term Receivables 126.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Investment In Unconsolidated Subsidiaries 173.0 156.0 112.0 81.0 69.0 0.0 - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Property Plant & Equipment - Net 6,488.0 6,314.0 6,086.0 6,263.0 6,558.0 7,327.0 7,386.0 7,359.0 7,359.0 8,059.7 8,865.7 9,752.2 10,727.5 11,800.2 12,980.2
Property Plant & Equipment - Gross 8,398.0 8,507.0 8,523.0 8,889.0 9,441.0 10,609.0 10,750.0 10,805.0 10,863.0
Other Assets 1,276.0 1,199.0 904.0 835.0 917.0 1,012.0 1,003.0 972.0 1,122.0 1,032.2 1,052.9 1,073.9 1,095.4 1,117.3 1,139.7
Total Assets 10,649.0 10,511.0 10,529.0 11,308.0 12,105.0 12,686.0 12,772.0 12,662.0 12,596.0 13,665.0 14,604.5 15,768.7 16,669.1 18,094.1 19,610.1
Liabilities
Accounts Payable 840.0 766.0 846.0 1,076.0 1,013.0 1,021.0 948.0 1,062.0 911.0 1,041.4 1,062.2 1,083.5 1,105.2 1,127.3 1,149.8
ST Debt & Current Portion of LT Debt 422.0 670.0 546.0 574.0 652.0 519.0 578.0 980.0 734.0 534.6 550.6 567.1 584.1 601.7 619.7
Accrued Payroll 280.0 281.0 234.0 233.0 545.0 345.0 351.9 358.9 366.1 373.4 380.9 388.5
Other Current Liabilities 1,323.0 1,408.0 1,773.0 2,072.0 2,239.0 2,589.0 3,122.0 2,814.0 2,620.0 2,640.8 2,693.6 2,747.5 2,802.4 2,858.5 2,915.6
Current Liabilities - Total 2,865.0 3,125.0 3,399.0 3,955.0 4,449.0 4,474.0 4,648.0 4,856.0 4,265.0 4,568.7 4,665.4 4,764.2 4,865.2 4,968.3 5,073.7
Long Term Debt 5,558.0 5,167.0 5,057.0 4,859.0 4,366.0 5,371.0 5,360.0 4,963.0 5,290.0 5,532.1 5,698.1 5,869.0 6,045.1 6,226.5 6,413.3
Provision for Risks & Charges 680.0 1,132.0 1,078.0 1,149.0 769.0 1,651.0 1,675.8 1,700.9 1,726.4 1,752.3 1,778.6 1,805.3
Deferred Taxes 446.0 378.0 154.0 165.0 359.0 216.0 170.0 172.0 180.0 222.5 229.2 236.0 243.1 250.4 257.9
Other Liabilities 308.0 554.0 615.0 833.0 612.0 869.0 2,441.0 2,435.0 2,415.0 2,415.0 2,487.5 2,562.1 2,638.9 2,718.1 2,799.6
Total Liabilities 9,857.0 10,356.0 10,303.0 10,961.0 10,555.0 12,581.0 12,619.0 12,426.0 12,150.0 14,414.0 14,781.0 15,157.8 15,544.6 15,941.9 16,349.8
Shareholders' Equity
Non-Equity Reserves 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minority Interest 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Preferred Stock 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Preferred Stock - Non Redeemable 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Preferred Stock - Redeemable 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Common Equity 792.0 155.0 226.0 347.0 1,550.0 105.0 153.0 236.0 446.0
Common Stock 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Capital Surplus 1,401.0 1,408.0 1,635.0 1,370.0 1,606.0 1,997.0 2,043.0 2,047.0 2,210.0
Revaluation Reserves 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Appropriated Reserves (408.0) (584.0) (680.0) (997.0) (534.0) (1,344.0) - - -
Unappropriated (Free) Reserves - - - - - - - - -
Retained Earnings 948.0 474.0 406.0 (11.0) 448.0 (137.0) (296.0) (509.0) (527.0)
Equity In Untaxed Reserves - - - - - - - - -
ESOP Guarantees 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Unrealized Foreign Exchange Gain(Loss) - - - - - - - - -
Unrealized Gain(Loss) on Marketable Securities (9.0) (3.0) 5.0 (16.0) 29.0 (412.0) - - -
(Less) Treasury Stock 1,141.0 1,141.0 1,141.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -
Total Shareholders Equity 792.0 155.0 226.0 347.0 1,550.0 105.0 153.0 236.0 446.0 446.0 468.3 491.7 516.3 542.1 569.2
Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity 10,649.0 10,511.0 10,529.0 11,308.0 12,105.0 12,686.0 12,772.0 12,662.0 12,596.0 14,860.0 15,249.3 15,649.5 16,060.9 16,484.0 16,919.0
Common Shares Outstanding 66.0 66.5 86.2 91.8 98.2 123.3 123.5 123.7 138.1 138.1 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0
*Source: Thomson One Analytics
Increase by 600 bps 0.06
Increase by 800 bps 0.08
Increase by 800 bps 0.08
Increase by 800 bps 0.08
Increase by 1000 bps 0.1
Increase by 200 bps 0.02
Increase by 200 bps 0.02
Increase by 300 bps 0.03
Increase by 200 bps 0.02
Increase by 200 bps 0.02
0.03
Increase by 150 bps 0.015
Increase by 300 bps 0.03
Increase by 300 bps 0.03
Increase by 500 bps 0.05
CAL Balance Sheet Data (Dec. 31)
(US$ millions) 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E
Cash & ST Investments $ 2,749 $ 2,982 $ 2,833 $ 3,003
Receivables (Net) 582 606 453 489
Inventories (Total) 217 271 235 254
Other Current Assets 581 702 826 827
Investment In Unconsolidated Subsidiaries 81 69 - -
Property, Plant & Equipment (Net) 6,263 6,558 7,327 8,060
Other Non-Current Assets 835 917 1,012 1,032
Total Assets 11,308 12,105 12,686 13,665
Accounts Payable 1,076 1,013 1,021 1,041
ST Debt & Current Portion of LT Debt 574 652 519 535
Accrued Payroll 233 545 345 352
Other Current Liabilities 2,072 2,239 2,589 2,641
Long Term Debt 4,859 4,366 5,371 5,532
Provision for Risks & Charges 1,149 769 1,651 1,676
Deferred Taxes 165 359 216 222
Other Liabilities 833 612 869 2,415
Total Liabilities 10,961 10,555 12,581 14,414
Total Shareholder's Equity 347 1,550 105 446
Total Equity & Liabilities 11,308 12,105 12,686 14,860
Common Shares Outstanding 91.8 98.2 123.3 138.5
Consolidated Balance Sheet (Dec. 31)
2010P 2011P 2012P (US$ millions) 2008A 2009E 2010P 2011P
$ 2,990 $ 3,111 $ 2,868 Tot. Assets $ 12,686 $ 13,665 $ 14,605 $ 15,769
528 571 616 Tot. Liabilities 12,581 14,414 14,781 15,158
274 296 320 Tot. Equity 105 446 468 492
Tot. Equity &
12,686 14,860 15,249 15,649
893 965 1,042 Liabilities
- - - Common S/O 123.3 138.5 153.0 153.0
8,866 9,752 10,727
1,053 1,074 1,095
14,605 15,769 16,669
1,062 1,083 1,105
551 567 584
359 366 373
2,694 2,747 2,802
5,698 5,869 6,045
1,701 1,726 1,752
229 236 243
2,487 2,562 2,639
14,781 15,158 15,545
468 492 516
15,249 15,649 16,061
153.0 153.0 153.0
c. 31)
2012P
$ 16,669
15,545
516
16,061
153.0
2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010P 2011P
Current Assets - Total 3,427 4,129 4,561 4,347 4,573 4,686 4,942
Current Liabilities - Total 3,399 3,955 4,449 4,474 4,569 4,665 4,764
NWC 28 174 112 (127) 4 21 178
Change in NWC 146 (62) (239) 131 16 158
2012P 2013P 2014P
4,846 5,177 5,490
4,865 4,968 5,074
(19) 208 416
(197) 227 208
Actual
12/31/2003 12/31/2004 12/31/2005 12/31/2006 12/31/2007 12/31/2008
ST Debt & Current Portion of LT Debt 422.0 670.0 546.0 574.0 652.0 519.0
Long Term Debt 5,558.0 5,167.0 5,057.0 4,859.0 4,366.0 5,371.0
Total Debt 5,980.0 5,837.0 5,603.0 5,433.0 5,018.0 5,890.0
Total Shareholders Equity 792.0 155.0 226.0 347.0 1,550.0 105.0
Debt/Equity 755% 3766% 2479% 1566% 324% 5610%
Airline Debt/Equity Debt/Capital
Continental 1350.7 1.10
Southwest 68.5 -
Delta 1,964.90 1.00
AMR Corp -405.5 1.50
Jet Blue 222.5 0.70
AVERAGE 752.0 1.07
3/31/2009 6/30/2009 9/30/2009
578.0 980.0 734.0
5,360.0 4,963.0 5,290.0
5,938.0 5,943.0 6,024.0
153.0 236.0 446.0
3881% 2518% 1351%
Continental Airlines (CAL)
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital Analysis Weighted Average Cost Of Capital Analy
d):
I. Cost of Debt (K10 yr BB Rated Bond Yield* for CAL I. d):
Cost of Debt (K10 yr BB Rated Bond Yield*
Estimated Kd = Cost of Debt * (1-T) 7.19% Estimated Kd = Cost of Debt * (1-T)
II. Cost of Equity (Ke): II. Cost of Equity (Ke):
Cost of Debt 7.19% Cost of Debt
Equity Risk Premium Used (re) 5.0% Equity Risk Premium Used (re)
Ke = Kd + re 12.2% Ke = Kd + re
III. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC): D/E Ratio III. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC):
Target Debt to Cap. Ratio 217.0 72.63% 34.3% Target Debt to Cap. Ratio
Implicit Equity to Cap. Ratio 632.0 27.37% Implicit Equity to Cap. Ratio
WACC = (Kd * wd) + (Ke * we) 849.0 8.6% WACC = (Kd * wd) + (Ke * we)
Source: Bloomberg
verage Cost Of Capital Analysis
10 yr BB Rated Bond Yield* for CAL
Kd = Cost of Debt * (1-T) 7.19%
7.19%
remium Used (re) 5.0%
12.2%
rage Cost of Capital (WACC):
to Cap. Ratio ## 72.63%
ty to Cap. Ratio ## 27.37%
d * wd) + (Ke * we) ### 8.6%
Continental Airlines (CAL)
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
($ in millions, except per share data - FYE Dec)
Actual
2004 2005 2006
EBITDAR $ 1,068 $ 1,278 $ 1,849
EBIT (238) (39) 468
Less: Cash Taxes 21 - (33)
Tax-effected EBIT $ (217) $ (39) $ 435
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 415 389 391
Less: Capital Expenditures 0.0 (162) (185) (300)
Less: Change in Working Capital (26) (33) (146)
Unlevered free cash flow $ 10 $ 132 $ 380
B
WACC @ 8.6%
NPV of Unlevered free cash flow @ 8.6% $ 417
EBITDA MULTIPLE METHOD
Terminal Value Undiscounted Discounted
EBITDAR Multiple 3.9x $9,040 $ 6,510
3.9x 9,040 6,510
DCF Range (Implied Enterprise Value) $ 6,927 –
Equity Value (a) $ 3,609 –
Implied Price per Share (b) $ 26.06 –
–
PERPETUITY GROWTH METHOD
Terminal Value Undiscounted Discounted
Perpetuity Growth Rate 2.0% $ 13,947 $ 10,043
2.0% 13,947 10,043
DCF Range (Implied Enterprise Value) $ 10,460 –
Equity Value (a) $ 7,142 –
(b)
Implied Price per Share $ 51.57 ––
tal Airlines (CAL)
Cash Flow Analysis
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
Estimated Projected
2007 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Projection Drivers
$ 1,984 EBITDAR $ 1,190 $ 1,517 $ 1,795 $ 2,318
687 EBIT (219) 169 411 843
(130) Cash Taxes 11 (17) (41) (84)
$ 557 After tax EBIT $ (208) $ 152 $ 370 $ 759
413 Dep. & Amort. 470 404 411 464
(445) CapEx (500) (508) (515) (523) Keep constant
62 ∆ Working Cap. (131) (16) (158) 197
$ 587 Unlevered FCF $ (370) $ 32 $ 109 $ 897
D
Net Debt 3318
Shares O/S 138.5
– $ 6,927
– $ 3,609
– $ 26.06
–
DCF Analysis Summary (bn)
EBITDAR
Method
– $ 10,460 Implied TEV $ 6.9
Less Net Debt $ 3.3
– $ 7,142 Implied Equity $ 3.6
–– $ 51.57 Shares Outstanding 0.139
P* $ 26
Projection Drivers
Keep constant
Relative Analysis Summary (bn)
Projected 2010E EBITDA
x Comparables Multiple
Implied TEV
Less Net Debt
Implied Equity
Continental Airlines (CAL)
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
($ in millions, except per share data - FYE Dec)
Actual
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
EBITDAR $ 1,068 $ 1,278 $ 1,849 $ 1,984 $ 1,100
EBIT (238) (39) 468 687 (314)
Less: Cash Taxes 5.0% 12 2 (23) (34) 16
Tax-effected EBIT $ (226) $ (37) $ 445 $ 653 $ (298)
Plus: Depreciation & Amortization 415 389 391 413 438
Less: Capital Expenditures 0.0 (162) (185) (300) (445) (504)
Less: Change in Working Capital (26) (33) (48) (28) (25)
Unlevered free cash flow $1 $ 134 $ 488 $ 593 $ (390)
B D
WACC @ 8.6%
NPV of Unlevered free cash flow @ 8.6% $ 477
EBITDA MULTIPLE METHOD
Terminal Value Discounted
Undiscounted
EBITDAR Multiple 3.9x $9,040 $ 6,510
3.9x 9,040 6,510
DCF Range (Implied Enterprise Value) $ 6,987 – $ 6,987
Equity Value (a) $ 3,669 – $ 3,669
Implied Price per Share (b) $ 23.98 – $ 23.98
–
PERPETUITY GROWTH METHOD
Terminal Value Discounted
Undiscounted
Perpetuity Growth Rate 3.0% ###### $ 8,387
3.0% 11,648 8,387
DCF Range (Implied Enterprise Value) $ 8,865 – $ 8,865
Equity Value (a) $ 5,547 – $ 5,547
Implied Price per Share (b) $ 36.25 – $ 36.25
sis
Estimated Projected
2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
$ 1,190 $ 1,517 $ 1,795 $ 2,318
(219) 169 411 843
11 (17) (41) (84)
$ (208) $ 152 $ 370 $ 759
470 404 411 464
(500) (515) (530) (546)
68 (24) (37) (47)
$ (171) $ 17 $ 214 $ 628
Net Debt 3318
Shares O/S 153
DCF Analysis Summary (bn) Relative Analysis Summary
Perpetuity EBITDAR
Method Method
Implied TEV $ 8.9 $ 7.0 Projected 2010E EBITDA
Less Net Debt $ 3.3 $ 3.3 x Comparables Multiple
Implied Equity $ 5.5 $ 3.7 Implied TEV
0.153
Shares Outstanding 0.153 Less Net Debt
P* $ 36 $ 24 Implied Equity
Continental Airlines (CAL)
Valuation Reference Range Analysis
(All figures in millions, except per share data)
Relevant Multiple Implied Enterprise Implied Equity Implied Pr
Methodology Statistic Range Value Value Shar
Relative Valuation Analysis
Net Revenue 2009E $ 12,526
2010P 13,481 1.05x – 1.15x 14,155 – 15,503 10,837 – 12,185
2011P 14,961 1.10x – 1.20x 16,457 – 17,954 13,139 – 14,636
EBITDA 2009E $ 1,190 11.00x – 11.00x 13,090 – 13,090 9,772 – 9,772
2010E 1,517 4.40x – 4.40x 6,673 – 6,673 3,355 – 3,355
2011E 1,795 3.9x – 3.9x 7,002 – 7,002 3,684 – 3,684
EBIT 2009E $ (314)
2010E $ (219) 13.5x – 14.0x (2,959) – (3,069) (6,277) – (6,387)
2011E $ 169 11.0x – 11.0x 1,854 – 1,854 (1,464) – (1,464)
$ 5,811 $ 2,493
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis
EBITDA Multiple Method 6.0x – 6.5x $ 6,927 – $ 6,927 $ 3,609 – $ 3,609
$ 6,642 $ 3,324
Perpetuity Growth Method 2.0% – 2.5% 10,460 – 10,460 7,142 – 7,142
$ 6,504 $ 3,186
Reference Range
Final Reference Range
Implied Price per
Share
Net Debt $ 3,318
78.25 – 87.98 Current S/Out 138.5
94.87 – 105.67
70.55 – 70.55
24.22 – 24.22
26.60 – 26.60
(45.32) – (46.11)
(10.57) – (10.57)
$ 26.60 – $ 26.60 Reference Range
18.00 Reference Point
$ 26.06 – $ 26.06 Reference Range
24.00 Reference Point EBITDA Method
51.57 – 51.57 Reference Range
23.00 Reference Point for Perpetuity Method
$ 23.00 – $ 23.00
$ 20.50 $ 20.50
Continental Airlines (CAL)
Financial Summary Relative Valuation
(All figures in millions, except for per share data)
Stock
Price Shares Equity Total Net Enterprise Revenue EBITDAR
Company Ticker 10/14/09 Outs. Value Debt Cash Debt Value (a) 2009E 2010P 2011P 2009E
Southwest LUV $ 9.20 741.9 $ 6,826 $ 3,378 $ 2,254 $ 1,124 $ 7,950 $ 10,272 $ 11,117 $ 11,891 $ 1,097
Delta DAL 8.19 779.5 6,384 16,655 5,966 10,689 17,073 27,817 29,900 30,822 1,799
AMR Corp. AMR 6.04 332.5 2,008 9,872 4,760 5,112 7,120 19,744 21,361 22,545 850
JetBlue JBLU 5.51 290.3 1,600 2,972 1,213 1,759 3,359 3,283 3,607 3,917 637
TOTAL $ 15,218 $ 35,502 11%
$ 8,875.4 6%
4%
19%
10.2%
Continental CAL $ 16.44 138.5 2,277 $ 6,024 $ 2,706 3,318 $ 5,595 $ 12,526 $ 13,481 $ 14,961 $ 1,190
Source: Thompson One Analytics and Bloomberg
Note: Figures have NOT been adjusted for extraordinary and non-recurring items.
(a) Enterprise Value calculated as Equity Value plus Net Debt (Total Debt less Cash & Cash Equivalents).
on
Enterpris
EBITDAR EBIT EPS
2010P 2011P 2009E 2010P 2011P 2009E 2010P 2011P
$ 1,507 $ 1,974 $ 436 $ 591 $ 923 $ 0.10 $ 0.34 $ 0.58
4,107 4,159 63 2,242 1,456 (1.33) 0.97 1.26
1,999 2,207 (832) 334 478 (4.76) (0.88) (0.79)
756 825 267 393 374 0.19 0.47 0.56
14% 17% 4% 5% 8%
14% 13% 0% 7% 5%
9% 10% -4% 2% 2%
21% 21% 8% 11% 10%
2.1%
$ 1,517 $ 1,795 ##### $ 169 $ 411 $ (2.57) $ (0.12) $ 1.32
Continental Airlines (CAL)
Valuation Multiples
Enterprise Value as a Multiple of Stock Price as a Multipl
LFY Margins Revenue EBITDA EBIT Earnings per Share
Company Ticker EBITDA EBIT 2009E 2010P 2011P 2009P 2010P 2011P 2009P 2010P 2011P 2009P
Southwest LUV 10.7% N/A 0.77x 0.72x 0.67x 7.2x 5.3x 4.0x 18.2x 13.4x 8.6x 92.0x
Delta DAL 6.5% 0.2% 0.61 0.57 0.55 9.5 4.2 4.1 273.2 7.6 11.7 -6.2
AMR Corp. AMR 4.3% (4.2)% 0.36 0.33 0.32 8.4 3.6 3.2 -8.6 21.3 14.9 -1.3
JetBlue JBLU 19.4% 8.1% 1.02 0.93 0.86 5.3 4.4 4.1 12.6 8.5 9.0 29.0
HIGH 10.7% 0.2% 1.02x 0.93x 0.86x 9.5x 5.3x 4.1x 273.2x 21.3x 14.9x 92.0x
AVERAGE 7.1% (2.0)% 0.69 0.64 0.60 7.6x 4.4x 3.9x 73.9x 12.7x 11.0x 28.4x
MEDIAN 6.5% (2.0)% 0.69 0.64 0.61 7.8x 4.3x 4.0x 15.4x 11.0x 10.3x 13.9x
LOW 4.3% (4.2)% 0.36 0.33 0.32 5.3x 3.6x 3.2x -8.6x 7.6x 8.6x -6.2x
Continental CAL 9.5% (1.8)% 0.45x 0.42x 0.37x 4.7x 3.7x 3.1x -25.5x 33.2x 13.6x -6.4x
Source: Thompson One Analytics and Bloomberg
Note: Figures have NOT been adjusted for extraordinary and non-recurring items.
(a) Enterprise Value calculated as Equity Value plus Net Debt (Total Debt less Cash & Cash Equivalents).
Stock Price as a Multiple of
Earnings per Share
2010P 2011P
27.1x 15.9x
8.4 6.5
-6.9 -7.6
11.7 9.8
27.1x 15.9x
10.1x 6.1x
10.1x 8.2x
-6.9x -7.6x
-138.2x 12.5x
Ticker CAL
Price Target $ 26.0
Current Price (10/13/09) $ 16.4
52 Week Range $87
$6.3 - $21.83
CAL Comps
Valuation (12/4/09)
Enterprise Value (in Mn) $ 5,595 $ 8,875
Price/Earnings NEG NEG
TEV/EBITDAR (2009E) 4.7x 7.6x
TEV/EBITDAR (2011E) 3.1x 3.9x
Risk Assessment (9/30/09 TTM)
EBITDA/Interest Expense 0.6x 1.6x
Profitability Margins (2009E)
EBITDAR Margin 9.5% 10.2%
EBIT -1.8% 2.1%
Management Effectiveness (9/30/09 TTM)
Return on Equity -82% -54%
Return on Assets -3% -2%
Load Factor 85.1% 83.3%
Comparables Used
Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)
Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)
AMR Corp. (AMR)
Jetblue Airways Corp. (JBLU)
Date BWAIRL Index CAL
1/2/2008 100 100
1/3/2008 98.2155 97.0128
1/4/2008 96.9578 94.7368
1/7/2008 95.8532 96.3964
1/8/2008 93.5163 84.5899
1/9/2008 92.6496 89.1418
1/10/2008 94.3321 110.2418
1/11/2008 94.6295 104.8364
1/14/2008 95.5472 110.716
1/15/2008 95.0204 119.8198
1/16/2008 93.8222 114.9834
1/17/2008 92.1652 116.4533
1/18/2008 91.5704 114.2722
1/21/2008 87.7804 114.2722
1/22/2008 85.877 113.4661
1/23/2008 88.3413 126.5055
1/24/2008 89.6669 120.7207
1/25/2008 89.6839 122.0958
1/28/2008 87.2366 124.4192
1/29/2008 87.6105 123.0915
1/30/2008 86.5823 122.3803
1/31/2008 86.6927 129.3504
2/1/2008 87.8824 138.6913
2/4/2008 89.6924 132.4798
2/5/2008 89.0211 133.7127
2/6/2008 88.6982 136.4628
2/7/2008 89.191 144.3812
2/8/2008 89.378 142.6268
2/11/2008 89.0466 142.4372
2/12/2008 89.5309 138.9284
2/13/2008 89.446 142.4372
2/14/2008 89.225 136.0835
2/15/2008 88.0438 140.7776
2/18/2008 88.4092 140.7776
2/19/2008 88.8086 139.7819
2/20/2008 87.653 141.5837
2/21/2008 86.8712 137.9801
2/22/2008 85.2481 136.5576
2/25/2008 84.6278 139.8767
2/26/2008 85.86 137.743
2/27/2008 86.3528 127.6908
2/28/2008 84.6618 118.9189
2/29/2008 84.033 114.6515
3/3/2008 84.1349 111.9014
3/4/2008 83.3192 114.6515
3/5/2008 84.3559 121.669
3/6/2008 83.0897 112.8023
3/7/2008 81.6706 111.285
3/10/2008 79.5462 103.1294
3/11/2008 79.5037 107.2546
3/12/2008 78.9514 97.0128
3/13/2008 76.4021 101.707
3/14/2008 74.8895 94.3101
3/17/2008 72.0683 89.4737
3/18/2008 72.9096 93.2195
3/19/2008 73.258 94.9739
3/20/2008 75.2804 98.6249
3/21/2008 76.0792 98.6249
3/24/2008 75.7393 100.9483
3/25/2008 78.9259 100.3793
3/26/2008 77.8467 91.4651
3/27/2008 76.4531 90.1375
3/28/2008 77.2264 90.4694
3/31/2008 77.5748 91.1807
4/1/2008 78.8239 99.431
4/2/2008 78.8834 94.073
4/3/2008 78.8494 98.056
4/4/2008 78.9684 97.5344
4/7/2008 80.2345 100
4/8/2008 79.9541 103.8407
4/9/2008 77.4218 95.9697
4/10/2008 78.0761 101.2802
4/11/2008 78.3396 102.513
4/14/2008 75.6798 103.7933
4/15/2008 74.3542 96.5386
4/16/2008 74.1077 98.8146
4/17/2008 73.4789 100.0948
4/18/2008 72.9691 103.651
4/21/2008 72.8076 98.0085
4/22/2008 70.8787 81.5552
4/23/2008 70.3518 76.055
4/24/2008 71.8134 83.8312
4/25/2008 73.1645 81.6501
4/28/2008 73.292 80.4173
4/29/2008 73.3515 83.2622
4/30/2008 74.3967 85.2537
5/1/2008 74.9065 91.2755
5/2/2008 76.0707 89.0944
5/5/2008 77.0989 84.3054
5/6/2008 75.3484 83.3096
5/7/2008 73.071 80.8914
5/8/2008 72.8756 79.9431
5/9/2008 71.7369 82.4087
5/12/2008 72.2383 82.8355
5/13/2008 71.4905 83.5467
5/14/2008 72.0513 87.1503
5/15/2008 72.7226 88.3831
5/16/2008 72.9776 85.1588
5/19/2008 72.1703 80.0854
5/20/2008 70.9636 77.5249
5/21/2008 69.0687 67.3305
5/22/2008 67.6326 67.9943
5/23/2008 66.9443 62.4941
5/26/2008 66.086 62.4941
5/27/2008 67.1057 65.5761
5/28/2008 68.1679 64.2485
5/29/2008 67.981 68.5159
5/30/2008 68.7458 68.3262
6/2/2008 68.4143 65.8606
6/3/2008 68.6438 68.8478
6/4/2008 69.6295 68.753
6/5/2008 70.6152 72.0721
6/6/2008 68.5673 65.7658
6/9/2008 67.5476 65.7184
6/10/2008 65.5591 64.4855
6/11/2008 64.3695 57.3732
6/12/2008 63.6387 59.0801
6/13/2008 64.1655 64.0114
6/16/2008 64.0126 67.1408
6/17/2008 63.3923 66.6192
6/18/2008 63.6727 63.7269
6/19/2008 62.4745 73.9213
6/20/2008 62.8314 67.4727
6/23/2008 60.3076 56.7093
6/24/2008 60.3926 56.1404
6/25/2008 60.3841 56.5671
6/26/2008 60.5201 52.0152
6/27/2008 59.3134 49.9289
6/30/2008 59.1434 47.9374
7/1/2008 58.3192 47.2262
7/2/2008 57.002 41.9156
7/3/2008 56.7981 43.0536
7/4/2008 56.5347 43.0536
7/7/2008 57.8433 42.0104
7/8/2008 59.5683 48.5538
7/9/2008 60.3756 43.4329
7/10/2008 59.2624 39.4026
7/11/2008 57.8858 34.5187
7/14/2008 57.9623 31.9583
7/15/2008 57.8178 31.5315
7/16/2008 59.8997 43.5752
7/17/2008 62.0751 47.2262
7/18/2008 63.8511 47.8426
7/21/2008 64.2505 43.8596
7/22/2008 64.9728 62.8734
7/23/2008 67.692 70.1754
7/24/2008 65.984 58.3215
7/25/2008 65.6016 60.2655
7/28/2008 63.8681 56.5197
7/29/2008 64.6244 67.3779
7/30/2008 64.9643 63.4424
7/31/2008 64.0381 65.1019
8/1/2008 63.8511 61.8302
8/4/2008 63.3838 67.5201
8/5/2008 65.5337 75.4386
8/6/2008 66.052 73.3997
8/7/2008 64.1315 69.9384
8/8/2008 64.5819 78.1413
8/11/2008 64.327 84.1631
8/12/2008 64.1485 84.7795
8/13/2008 62.1856 74.7274
8/14/2008 62.0921 77.5723
8/15/2008 63.2648 82.551
8/18/2008 62.1941 80.7966
8/19/2008 60.4521 72.5936
8/20/2008 60.2056 71.8824
8/21/2008 59.3049 67.9943
8/22/2008 60.2396 75.2015
8/25/2008 60.1292 73.0204
8/26/2008 59.2284 70.3177
8/27/2008 58.795 70.128
8/28/2008 59.7213 76.3395
8/29/2008 59.8912 77.0507
9/1/2008 59.6108 77.0507
9/2/2008 61.6417 84.5899
9/3/2008 61.6162 87.6245
9/4/2008 60.0187 85.1114
9/5/2008 59.2199 85.633
9/8/2008 59.4833 81.0811
9/9/2008 59.7723 76.5292
9/10/2008 58.999 76.1973
9/11/2008 58.8205 87.7667
9/12/2008 59.8827 89.853
9/15/2008 59.9592 89.3789
9/16/2008 60.2736 100.9483
9/17/2008 58.4041 86.3917
9/18/2008 57.3929 87.7193
9/19/2008 59.5598 87.2451
9/22/2008 58.4891 79.706
9/23/2008 57.5204 81.982
9/24/2008 57.087 81.6975
9/25/2008 57.5034 83.4993
9/26/2008 56.5772 84.0209
9/29/2008 54.1893 75.0593
9/30/2008 53.9939 79.0896
10/1/2008 54.6057 83.4519
10/2/2008 53.6285 79.8957
10/3/2008 52.4898 72.0247
10/6/2008 49.0993 63.7743
10/7/2008 47.1363 51.3988
10/8/2008 44.9099 51.9203
10/9/2008 44.9014 51.9203
10/10/2008 42.9045 54.0541
10/13/2008 46.1591 61.0716
10/14/2008 48.071 61.3561
10/15/2008 46.55 60.8819
10/16/2008 47.1108 74.6799
10/17/2008 47.9861 80.1802
10/20/2008 49.1842 81.9346
10/21/2008 49.3202 82.7406
10/22/2008 48.36 87.7193
10/23/2008 46.1421 77.6671
10/24/2008 43.4483 73.2101
10/27/2008 41.103 68.4685
10/28/2008 42.5731 76.8611
10/29/2008 43.1084 72.973
10/30/2008 44.8419 80.3224
10/31/2008 45.5387 89.7108
11/3/2008 46.8049 96.9654
11/4/2008 47.6632 85.064
11/5/2008 47.2128 78.3784
11/6/2008 44.6125 77.0507
11/7/2008 45.3178 75.7705
11/10/2008 45.0799 66.477
11/11/2008 43.4398 65.2916
11/12/2008 41.9867 55.5714
11/13/2008 42.6411 60.3604
11/14/2008 42.3691 54.0541
11/17/2008 42.4286 56.4723
11/18/2008 41.6383 59.2698
11/19/2008 40.1428 53.6273
11/20/2008 38.6047 50.2134
11/21/2008 39.0975 53.5799
11/24/2008 40.2532 62.8734
11/25/2008 41.2729 68.5633
11/26/2008 41.3579 68.9426
11/27/2008 41.8678 68.9426
11/28/2008 41.7658 69.6064
12/1/2008 40.4572 65.7658
12/2/2008 41.103 70.0806
12/3/2008 41.4599 72.0247
12/4/2008 41.6893 73.3997
12/5/2008 42.4031 77.5249
12/8/2008 44.5445 80.5595
12/9/2008 44.4256 74.8696
12/10/2008 44.7825 74.7748
12/11/2008 44.2556 68.7056
12/12/2008 43.8562 71.3608
12/15/2008 43.8987 69.1797
12/16/2008 44.9099 72.4988
12/17/2008 45.9041 76.055
12/18/2008 46.414 80.275
12/19/2008 46.1931 80.275
12/22/2008 45.6492 79.8483
12/23/2008 44.8249 79.9905
12/24/2008 45.4453 82.9303
12/25/2008 45.4368 82.9303
12/26/2008 45.3858 82.0294
12/29/2008 45.5303 82.7406
12/30/2008 45.8277 83.4045
12/31/2008 46.1421 85.633
1/1/2009 46.1761 85.633
1/2/2009 47.1108 90.7539
1/5/2009 47.1873 92.698
1/6/2009 47.5272 98.3404
1/7/2009 47.3317 98.5301
1/8/2009 47.2043 102.3234
1/9/2009 46.6774 96.5861
1/12/2009 46.0316 91.3229
1/13/2009 45.1818 90.422
1/14/2009 44.3661 84.2579
1/15/2009 44.2131 88.9521
1/16/2009 45.1564 98.9094
1/19/2009 44.4086 98.9094
1/20/2009 43.0489 92.6031
1/21/2009 42.1312 82.3613
1/22/2009 42.8535 81.7449
1/23/2009 41.6723 81.6501
1/26/2009 41.7063 79.5638
1/27/2009 41.0095 68.2788
1/28/2009 42.1567 76.9559
1/29/2009 41.035 68.8004
1/30/2009 40.0323 63.8691
2/2/2009 39.6159 65.9554
2/3/2009 40.0833 61.4983
2/4/2009 40.3297 62.3992
2/5/2009 40.2447 63.395
2/6/2009 41.6468 67.046
2/9/2009 41.6893 67.2831
2/10/2009 41.035 64.0114
2/11/2009 40.6696 56.4248
2/12/2009 40.7291 62.4467
2/13/2009 41.0945 61.688
2/16/2009 41.2729 61.688
2/17/2009 39.327 57.4206
2/18/2009 38.7407 52.7738
2/19/2009 38.6557 51.3039
2/20/2009 38.0608 50.0237
2/23/2009 38.2733 53.4376
2/24/2009 38.1033 56.1404
2/25/2009 37.636 52.8687
2/26/2009 37.4575 51.1143
2/27/2009 36.3018 47.5107
3/2/2009 35.0357 45.5192
3/3/2009 34.2284 37.9327
3/4/2009 35.5455 39.6871
3/5/2009 34.3644 34.4239
3/6/2009 34.1689 34.3291
3/9/2009 33.9905 30.5358
3/10/2009 35.1971 36.5102
3/11/2009 35.877 35.4196
3/12/2009 35.9959 38.4068
3/13/2009 36.3613 40.4931
3/16/2009 36.4123 39.3551
3/17/2009 37.1006 41.4414
3/18/2009 37.7464 42.9113
3/19/2009 37.8059 39.5922
3/20/2009 37.3555 38.4068
3/23/2009 38.6387 40.7302
3/24/2009 38.7831 40.6354
3/25/2009 39.157 42.4846
3/26/2009 40.3297 48.6486
3/27/2009 39.8029 46.0408
3/30/2009 38.7407 41.7259
3/31/2009 39.0041 41.7734
4/1/2009 39.7094 43.7648
4/2/2009 41.5024 49.3125
4/3/2009 41.6129 48.6961
4/6/2009 42.0972 53.3902
4/7/2009 41.5534 52.6316
4/8/2009 41.4769 55.4765
4/9/2009 42.777 63.1579
4/10/2009 43.3464 63.1579
4/13/2009 43.8222 62.5415
4/14/2009 43.8137 56.33
4/15/2009 44.0007 62.5889
4/16/2009 44.0602 63.1579
4/17/2009 44.0262 64.2959
4/20/2009 43.5673 60.7871
4/21/2009 44.5445 71.1238
4/22/2009 43.9667 64.4855
4/23/2009 44.6805 63.9165
4/24/2009 44.5955 62.826
4/27/2009 41.239 52.5367
4/28/2009 40.2532 50.1185
4/29/2009 41.8338 50.7349
4/30/2009 42.2247 49.8815
5/1/2009 42.4116 51.8729
5/4/2009 44.4341 61.4035
5/5/2009 45.7597 64.8175
5/6/2009 46.4225 64.4855
5/7/2009 45.6577 59.175
5/8/2009 46.3545 60.3129
5/11/2009 45.3433 57.9896
5/12/2009 45.1734 54.3386
5/13/2009 44.2896 50.972
5/14/2009 44.1536 51.1617
5/15/2009 43.8902 49.4073
5/18/2009 44.4765 52.7738
5/19/2009 45.0629 51.7307
5/20/2009 45.5897 49.7392
5/21/2009 44.9779 49.5495
5/22/2009 44.74 46.6572
5/25/2009 44.8674 46.6572
5/26/2009 44.706 45.8037
5/27/2009 44.8589 42.6268
5/28/2009 44.8759 42.3898
5/29/2009 45.4708 44.1916
6/1/2009 46.516 47.6529
6/2/2009 46.8219 52.8687
6/3/2009 46.6349 50.8298
6/4/2009 46.244 49.597
6/5/2009 45.9806 50.5927
6/8/2009 45.1988 46.1356
6/9/2009 45.8362 46.5149
6/10/2009 45.6492 43.7174
6/11/2009 45.4538 43.8596
6/12/2009 44.706 43.101
6/15/2009 43.6863 42.2475
6/16/2009 43.6438 44.2864
6/17/2009 43.6353 45.7563
6/18/2009 43.5503 43.4803
6/19/2009 43.9327 43.4803
6/22/2009 42.964 39.4974
6/23/2009 42.862 38.2646
6/24/2009 43.4993 39.6871
6/25/2009 43.7882 42.532
6/26/2009 43.8562 41.6311
6/29/2009 44.3746 42.0104
6/30/2009 44.2641 42.0104
7/1/2009 44.2556 43.7174
7/2/2009 43.6608 46.4201
7/3/2009 43.3889 46.4201
7/6/2009 43.4823 46.2779
7/7/2009 43.5758 44.3812
7/8/2009 43.5673 44.5709
7/9/2009 44.2301 44.5235
7/10/2009 43.9752 47.4158
7/13/2009 43.7797 46.8468
7/14/2009 44.1961 46.4675
7/15/2009 45.3943 48.0797
7/16/2009 45.4963 47.2262
7/17/2009 45.4708 46.2304
7/20/2009 46.8814 48.2219
7/21/2009 46.1591 44.6657
7/22/2009 46.2271 43.7174
7/23/2009 46.6094 43.8122
7/24/2009 46.7624 47.7952
7/27/2009 47.2553 47.9848
7/28/2009 47.9181 51.9678
7/29/2009 47.4507 54.1489
7/30/2009 48.173 52.11
7/31/2009 48.5724 52.9635
8/3/2009 49.6941 54.4808
8/4/2009 50.2294 56.33
8/5/2009 50.9517 58.2266
8/6/2009 50.7988 56.8516
8/7/2009 50.034 58.7482
8/10/2009 49.5326 57.3732
8/11/2009 49.2352 56.5197
8/12/2009 49.2012 58.0844
8/13/2009 50.1275 58.9379
8/14/2009 49.2352 58.4637
8/17/2009 47.6377 54.5756
8/18/2009 48.207 56.2826
8/19/2009 47.5102 55.0972
8/20/2009 48.377 57.0887
8/21/2009 49.2097 61.8777
8/24/2009 49.4392 62.0673
8/25/2009 49.3797 64.7226
8/26/2009 50.1275 64.4855
8/27/2009 50.3059 63.3476
8/28/2009 50.3144 64.4855
8/31/2009 49.1332 62.9208
9/1/2009 48.2665 59.3172
9/2/2009 47.7736 60.8819
9/3/2009 48.5214 63.4424
9/4/2009 49.0483 64.9597
9/7/2009 49.5496 64.9597
9/8/2009 50.3994 65.1019
9/9/2009 51.1217 65.0071
9/10/2009 51.9969 69.5116
9/11/2009 53.0252 69.8435
9/14/2009 53.1696 71.5979
9/15/2009 54.0364 77.0982
9/16/2009 54.7927 78.8051
9/17/2009 55.4215 77.3826
9/18/2009 54.9286 75.5334
9/21/2009 55.0561 82.3613
9/22/2009 55.3365 79.5638
9/23/2009 54.8946 76.5766
9/24/2009 53.5435 76.0076
9/25/2009 53.2546 79.706
9/28/2009 52.8127 79.4689
9/29/2009 52.7617 78.331
9/30/2009 53.3481 77.9516
10/1/2009 52.2689 71.5031
10/2/2009 51.6485 74.0635
10/5/2009 51.8695 75.2963
10/6/2009 52.6003 76.1973
10/7/2009 52.7532 75.1541
10/8/2009 53.6625 77.5723
10/9/2009 53.9684 76.5766
10/12/2009 54.1043 77.2878
10/13/2009 54.2658 78.3784
10/14/2009 55.2005 81.3656
10/15/2009 54.8351 79.1844
10/16/2009 54.1383 75.4386
10/19/2009 54.2573 74.3954
10/20/2009 54.6567 75.486
10/21/2009 54.0194 65.1019
10/22/2009 53.0846 63.2527
10/23/2009 52.9997 59.6491
10/26/2009 52.3199 57.0413
10/27/2009 51.1132 58.606
10/28/2009 50.0595 55.0024
10/29/2009 50.2379 55.7136
10/30/2009 49.9575 54.5282
11/2/2009 49.4562 53.6747
11/3/2009 49.6601 54.9075
11/4/2009 50.3569 54.7179
11/5/2009 50.8073 55.6662
11/6/2009 51.81 60.55
11/9/2009 52.5408 61.9725
11/10/2009 52.5408 60.9294
11/11/2009 52.9402 64.0114
11/12/2009 52.9657 62.5889
11/13/2009 53.8239 62.6363
11/16/2009 55.0646 65.1968
11/17/2009 54.4697 64.8649
11/18/2009 54.0449 63.395
11/19/2009 53.3736 61.4983
11/20/2009 53.0167 60.9768
11/23/2009 53.7899 63.1579
11/24/2009 52.8042 62.826
11/25/2009 53.2376 63.7743
11/26/2009 52.6088 63.7743
11/27/2009 51.912 64.4381
11/30/2009 52.7702 67.615
12/1/2009 54.3168 70.9341
12/2/2009 55.0901 74.3006
12/3/2009
12/4/2009
12/5/2009
12/6/2009
12/7/2009
12/8/2009
12/9/2009
12/10/2009
12/11/2009
12/12/2009
12/13/2009
12/14/2009
12/15/2009
12/16/2009
12/17/2009
12/18/2009
12/19/2009
12/20/2009
12/21/2009
12/22/2009
12/23/2009
12/24/2009
12/25/2009
12/26/2009
12/27/2009
12/28/2009
12/29/2009
12/30/2009
12/31/2009
1/1/2010
BBG World Airlines Index vs. CAL
150
130
110
90
70
50
30
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09
BWAIRL Index CAL
2004
Mainline Domestic 45.6%
Mainline Trans-atlantic 13.8%
Mainline Lat-Am 9.9%
Mainline Pacific 6.2%
Regional 15.9%
Cargo 3.9%
Other 4.7%
Projected Segment Contribution, %
of Revenue
100%
Other
90%
Cargo
80%
70%
Regional
60%
Mainline
50% Pacific
40% Mainline
Lat-Am
30%
Mainline
20% Trans-
atlantic
10% Mainline
Domestic
0%
2008 2009E 2010P 2011P 2012P
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010P 2011P 2012P
42.6% 41.2% 40.3% 37.0% 36.0% 35.1% 33.2% 30.9%
15.5% 15.9% 18.1% 19.6% 17.9% 18.3% 18.9% 20.1%
9.7% 10.2% 10.6% 11.5% 12.6% 12.9% 13.3% 13.9%
6.9% 6.8% 6.8% 6.7% 7.7% 7.3% 7.3% 7.4%
16.7% 17.3% 15.5% 15.5% 14.7% 15.0% 15.5% 15.3%
3.7% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7%
5.0% 5.1% 5.5% 6.6% 8.4% 8.6% 8.9% 9.5%
cur_mkt_cap
DAL 7241757000 7241.757
LUV 6981654000 6981.654
AMR 2257375000 2257.375
CAL 2169544000 2169.544
JBLU 1637322000 1637.322
UAUA 1551810000 1551.81
ALK 1064011000 1064.011
SKYW 889685200 889.6852
ALGT 880203400 880.2034
AAI 666042800 666.0428
LCC 639577800 639.5778
HA 348437800 348.4378
RJET 263187900 263.1879
Airlines in the US (250m+ Market Cap)
Market Cap (in mn)
RJET
HA
LCC
AAI
ALGT
SKYW
ALK
UAUA
JBLU
CAL
AMR
LUV
DAL
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
Star Alliance CAL %
Revenue (in bn): 169.7 15.2 9%
Daily Departures: 19534 2423 12%
Countries Served: 171 50 29%
Airports Served: 1071 262 24%
Passengers per
586.6 67 11%
Year (in mn):
Number of
458332 42210 9%
Employees:
Fleet: 3740 351 9%
Date Crude Oil CAL
1/3/2007 64.19 43.97
1/4/2007 62.08 45.67
1/5/2007 63.38 44.71
1/8/2007 63.71 44.62
1/9/2007 63.56 45.72
1/10/2007 61.99 47.45
1/11/2007 59.68 49.36
1/12/2007 60.33 49.66
1/16/2007 58.89 51.63
1/17/2007 59.43 50
1/18/2007 58.67 48.23
1/19/2007 59.93 48.2
1/22/2007 59.72 47.43
1/23/2007 61.12 44.82
1/24/2007 61.1 43.15
1/25/2007 60.3 42.35
1/26/2007 61.08 40.79
1/29/2007 60.01 42.89
1/30/2007 62.38 41.51
1/31/2007 63.41 41.49
2/1/2007 62.78 42.04
2/2/2007 64.68 42.25
2/5/2007 64.46 42.57
2/6/2007 64.11 42.94
2/7/2007 62.82 42.87
2/8/2007 64.79 42.98
2/9/2007 64.81 41.84
2/12/2007 63.38 42.9
2/13/2007 64.4 43.5
2/14/2007 62.88 43.86
2/15/2007 62.38 44.4
2/16/2007 63.62 44.79
2/20/2007 63.01 45.55
2/21/2007 64.3 45.69
2/22/2007 66.1 44.24
2/23/2007 67.15 43.04
2/26/2007 67.34 41.4
2/27/2007 67.41 39.5
2/28/2007 68.21 39.51
3/1/2007 68.03 40.23
3/2/2007 67.25 39.6
3/5/2007 66.12 39.09
3/6/2007 66.92 39.5
3/7/2007 67.8 38.27
3/8/2007 67.67 38.56
3/9/2007 66.72 38.06
3/12/2007 66.28 39
3/13/2007 66.16 37.25
3/14/2007 66.52 36.62
3/15/2007 65.96 37.6
3/16/2007 65.94 36.83
3/19/2007 66.23 38.28
3/20/2007 65.98 39.2
3/21/2007 66.56 40.5
3/22/2007 67.76 38.9
3/23/2007 67.52 38.62
3/26/2007 68.43 37.54
3/27/2007 68.9 37.2
3/28/2007 68.81 36.47
3/29/2007 68.82 36.1
3/30/2007 68.12 36.39
4/2/2007 68.77 36.05
4/3/2007 68.76 39.08
4/4/2007 69.48 39.45
4/5/2007 69.94 40.24
4/9/2007 69.14 41.07
4/10/2007 70.02 40.71
4/11/2007 69.91 42.29
4/12/2007 70.73 41.8
4/13/2007 70.46 41.9
4/16/2007 69.31 42.58
4/17/2007 68.77 42.5
4/18/2007 69.23 43.74
4/19/2007 68.82 41.15
4/20/2007 69.36 38.92
4/23/2007 70.45 37.81
4/24/2007 69.22 38.81
4/25/2007 70.5 39.76
4/26/2007 69.85 38.78
4/27/2007 70.95 36.25
4/30/2007 70.47 36.56
5/1/2007 70.3 36.87
5/2/2007 70.24 37.3
5/3/2007 70.23 37.98
5/4/2007 69.78 38.87
5/7/2007 69.29 38.6
5/8/2007 69.33 38.73
5/9/2007 68.93 38.88
5/10/2007 69.05 38.1
5/11/2007 69.54 38.14
5/14/2007 69.08 37.29
5/15/2007 69.62 36.35
5/16/2007 69.27 37.83
5/17/2007 70.25 38.2
5/18/2007 70.09 38.21
5/21/2007 70.71 37.67
5/22/2007 69.72 39.77
5/23/2007 70.27 39.15
5/24/2007 70.1 39.09
5/25/2007 70.53 38.42
5/29/2007 69.2 39.86
5/30/2007 69.41 39.68
5/31/2007 69.58 40.17
6/1/2007 70.46 39.88
6/4/2007 71.24 37.45
6/5/2007 70.9 37.86
6/6/2007 71.32 37.31
6/7/2007 71.76 35.6
6/8/2007 70.03 36.38
6/11/2007 71.29 35.69
6/12/2007 71.21 34.1
6/13/2007 71.87 33.48
6/14/2007 72.29 33.91
6/15/2007 72.6 33.09
6/18/2007 72.86 32.9
6/19/2007 72.5 33.8
6/20/2007 72.03 34.44
6/21/2007 71.64 34.51
6/22/2007 72.26 33.97
6/25/2007 72.74 33.26
6/26/2007 71.22 32.63
6/27/2007 71.11 33.2
6/28/2007 70.7 34.09
6/29/2007 72.11 33.87
7/2/2007 72.93 33.87
7/3/2007 73.02 37.62
7/5/2007 72.8 37.29
7/6/2007 73.09 38.41
7/9/2007 73.48 37.94
7/10/2007 73.93 36.59
7/11/2007 73.61 36.91
7/12/2007 73.48 36.88
7/13/2007 73.72 36.11
7/16/2007 72.68 36.35
7/17/2007 71.28 36.53
7/18/2007 72.06 36.83
7/19/2007 71.76 35.8
7/20/2007 71.07 35.37
7/23/2007 71.04 35.93
7/24/2007 70.93 36.64
7/25/2007 71.71 36
7/26/2007 70.72 34.49
7/27/2007 71.33 34
7/30/2007 70.76 33.16
7/31/2007 71.5 31.51
8/1/2007 71.77 31.68
8/2/2007 72.27 31.44
8/3/2007 72.06 31.18
8/6/2007 70.1 31.7
8/7/2007 70.44 31.05
8/8/2007 69.78 31.92
8/9/2007 69.55 32.06
8/10/2007 69.12 33.03
8/13/2007 68.38 32.67
8/14/2007 68.65 31.87
8/15/2007 69.44 26.45
8/16/2007 67.96 29.02
8/17/2007 68.4 28.36
8/20/2007 68.12 28.17
8/21/2007 67.44 30.73
8/22/2007 67.57 31.57
8/23/2007 68.03 31.82
8/24/2007 68.37 31.57
8/27/2007 68.86 30.64
8/28/2007 68.21 29.53
8/29/2007 68.52 30.35
8/30/2007 68.18 31.59
8/31/2007 68.71 33.26
9/4/2007 69.46 34.63
9/5/2007 69.02 34.07
9/6/2007 69.45 33.14
9/7/2007 69.91 31.98
9/10/2007 70.33 31.35
9/11/2007 71.04 32.5
9/12/2007 71.66 31.09
9/13/2007 70.89 32.46
9/14/2007 70.78 32.68
9/17/2007 71.24 32.13
9/18/2007 71.24 34.16
9/19/2007 71.92 33.68
9/20/2007 72.7 32.22
9/21/2007 73.49 32.7
9/24/2007 74.27 30.46
9/25/2007 73.38 31.46
9/26/2007 72.74 32.86
9/27/2007 73.39 32.85
9/28/2007 72.82 33.03
10/1/2007 72.19 33.75
10/2/2007 71.92 35.22
10/3/2007 71.84 35.45
10/4/2007 73.55 35.58
10/5/2007 74.22 36.78
10/8/2007 73 36.55
10/9/2007 73.81 37.33
10/10/2007 74.64 37.09
10/11/2007 75.03 35.85
10/12/2007 74.97 37.14
10/15/2007 76.15 35.76
10/16/2007 76.29 35.84
10/17/2007 75.66 36.23
10/18/2007 76.72 34.93
10/19/2007 76.26 33.8
10/22/2007 75.99 34.71
10/23/2007 76.02 36.14
10/24/2007 77.11 35.67
10/25/2007 78.44 34.12
10/26/2007 79.34 33.82
10/29/2007 81.65 33.45
10/30/2007 79.7 34.88
10/31/2007 81.69 34.35
11/1/2007 80.76 33.07
11/2/2007 82.06 32.46
11/5/2007 80.91 32.51
11/6/2007 82.4 30.96
11/7/2007 82.77 29.6
11/8/2007 82.78 28.71
11/9/2007 83.07 27.78
11/12/2007 81.63 28.91
11/13/2007 80.11 30.88
11/14/2007 81.47 31.25
11/15/2007 80.91 30.73
11/16/2007 82.31 29.58
11/19/2007 83.26 27.82
11/20/2007 85.42 26.2
11/21/2007 84.88 27.06
11/23/2007 85.8 27.6
11/26/2007 85.71 26.31
11/27/2007 83.93 26.74
11/28/2007 82.59 27.98
11/29/2007 83.54 27.1
11/30/2007 83.02 28.15
12/3/2007 84.74 27.27
12/4/2007 84.98 27.69
12/5/2007 84.11 26.95
12/6/2007 85.66 27
12/7/2007 84.69 28.28
12/10/2007 84.74 28.1
12/11/2007 85.67 26.78
12/12/2007 87.82 24.23
12/13/2007 86.41 24.86
12/14/2007 86.43 24.3
12/17/2007 86.67 23.05
12/18/2007 85.68 23.12
12/19/2007 86.25 23.74
12/20/2007 85.95 23.76
12/21/2007 86.5 23.75
12/24/2007 86.73 24.02
12/26/2007 86.97 23.43
12/27/2007 87.3 22.51
12/28/2007 86.58 21.82
12/31/2007 86.41 22.25
1/2/2008 88.8 21.09
1/3/2008 89.42 20.46
1/4/2008 89.9 19.98
1/7/2008 88.26 20.33
1/8/2008 88.72 17.84
1/9/2008 87.25 18.8
1/10/2008 86.2 23.25
1/11/2008 85.85 22.11
1/14/2008 86.89 23.35
1/15/2008 86 25.27
1/16/2008 85.34 24.25
1/17/2008 84.86 24.56
1/18/2008 85.07 24.1
1/22/2008 84.72 23.93
1/23/2008 83.22 26.68
1/24/2008 84.86 25.46
1/25/2008 86.51 25.75
1/28/2008 87.29 26.24
1/29/2008 87.39 25.96
1/30/2008 88.06 25.81
1/31/2008 88.27 27.28
2/1/2008 86.74 29.25
2/4/2008 87.5 27.94
2/5/2008 85.92 28.2
2/6/2008 84.97 28.78
2/7/2008 85.95 30.45
2/8/2008 88.27 30.08
2/11/2008 89.41 30.04
2/12/2008 89 29.3
2/13/2008 89.65 30.04
2/14/2008 91.57 28.7
2/15/2008 91.01 29.69
2/19/2008 93.54 29.48
2/20/2008 93.69 29.86
2/21/2008 92.88 29.1
2/22/2008 93.19 28.8
2/25/2008 93.7 29.5
2/26/2008 95.57 29.05
2/27/2008 95.43 26.93
2/28/2008 98.23 25.08
2/29/2008 97.57 24.18
3/3/2008 98.3 23.6
3/4/2008 95.39 24.18
3/5/2008 98.83 25.66
3/6/2008 99.28 23.79
3/7/2008 97.05 23.47
3/10/2008 96.81 21.75
3/11/2008 97.9 22.62
3/12/2008 99.83 20.46
3/13/2008 101.14 21.45
3/14/2008 100.19 19.89
3/17/2008 96.76 18.87
3/18/2008 101.11 19.66
3/19/2008 96.03 20.03
3/20/2008 95.76 20.8
3/24/2008 95.23 21.29
3/25/2008 95.97 21.17
3/26/2008 98.09 19.29
3/27/2008 99 19.01
3/28/2008 97.58 19.08
3/31/2008 94.84 19.23
4/1/2008 94.4 20.97
4/2/2008 97.7 19.84
4/3/2008 95.79 20.68
4/4/2008 98.2 20.57
4/7/2008 100.24 21.09
4/8/2008 99.73 21.9
4/9/2008 101.01 20.24
4/10/2008 101.16 21.36
4/11/2008 101.91 21.62
4/14/2008 102.69 21.89
4/15/2008 104.3 20.36
4/16/2008 105.67 20.84
4/17/2008 106.23 21.11
4/18/2008 107.45 21.86
4/21/2008 108.26 20.67
4/22/2008 109.28 17.2
4/23/2008 109.95 16.04
4/24/2008 107.57 17.68
4/25/2008 108.92 17.22
4/28/2008 109.5 16.96
4/29/2008 107.25 17.56
4/30/2008 105.56 17.98
5/1/2008 105.15 19.25
5/2/2008 108.9 18.79
5/5/2008 112.11 17.78
5/6/2008 113.92 17.57
5/7/2008 116.37 17.06
5/8/2008 117.75 16.86
5/9/2008 121 17.38
5/12/2008 119.53 17.47
5/13/2008 120.44 17.62
5/14/2008 120.49 18.38
5/15/2008 120.4 18.64
5/16/2008 123.91 17.96
5/19/2008 125.77 16.89
5/20/2008 130.39 16.35
5/21/2008 134.38 14.2
5/22/2008 129.6 14.34
5/23/2008 129.31 13.18
5/27/2008 127.27 13.83
5/28/2008 127.64 13.55
5/29/2008 124.65 14.45
5/30/2008 124.55 14.41
6/2/2008 125.56 13.89
6/3/2008 123.43 14.52
6/4/2008 121.71 14.5
6/5/2008 126.03 15.2
6/6/2008 133.34 13.87
6/9/2008 130.42 13.86
6/10/2008 129.16 13.6
6/11/2008 134.67 12.1
6/12/2008 135.62 12.46
6/13/2008 134.55 13.5
6/16/2008 135.53 14.16
6/17/2008 134.47 14.05
6/18/2008 135.9 13.44
6/19/2008 131.96 15.59
6/20/2008 133.56 14.23
6/23/2008 135.08 11.96
6/24/2008 135.98 11.84
6/25/2008 134.07 11.93
6/26/2008 138.42 10.97
6/27/2008 138.93 10.53
6/30/2008 139.48 10.11
7/1/2008 140.63 9.96
7/2/2008 143.19 8.84
7/3/2008 144.75 9.08
7/7/2008 142.13 8.86
7/8/2008 137.85 10.24
7/9/2008 137.72 9.16
7/10/2008 142.1 8.31
7/11/2008 144.33 7.28
7/14/2008 145.21 6.74
7/15/2008 139.66 6.65
7/16/2008 136.4 9.19
7/17/2008 131.29 9.96
7/18/2008 130.58 10.09
7/21/2008 132.91 9.25
7/22/2008 130.26 13.26
7/23/2008 126.46 14.8
7/24/2008 125.8 12.3
7/25/2008 124.02 12.71
7/28/2008 125.35 11.92
7/29/2008 122.96 14.21
7/30/2008 126.51 13.38
7/31/2008 123.74 13.73
8/1/2008 125.11 13.04
8/4/2008 121.24 14.24
8/5/2008 118.04 15.91
8/6/2008 117.22 15.48
8/7/2008 117.82 14.75
8/8/2008 115.06 16.48
8/11/2008 114.72 17.75
8/12/2008 113.16 17.88
8/13/2008 115.48 15.76
8/14/2008 114.87 16.36
8/15/2008 114.66 17.41
8/18/2008 113.4 17.04
8/19/2008 114.91 15.31
8/20/2008 116.85 15.16
8/21/2008 123.52 14.34
8/22/2008 117.13 15.86
8/25/2008 117.96 15.4
8/26/2008 118.3 14.83
8/27/2008 119.8 14.79
8/28/2008 117.91 16.1
8/29/2008 117.47 16.25
9/2/2008 114.43 17.84
9/3/2008 113.58 18.48
9/4/2008 111.83 17.95
9/5/2008 109.82 18.06
9/8/2008 109.65 17.1
9/9/2008 106.7 16.14
9/10/2008 105.96 16.07
9/11/2008 104.48 18.51
9/12/2008 105.15 18.95
9/15/2008 99.68 18.85
9/16/2008 94.16 21.29
9/17/2008 98.94 18.22
9/18/2008 100.08 18.5
9/19/2008 104.38 18.4
9/22/2008 110.17 16.81
9/23/2008 106.33 17.29
9/24/2008 106.27 17.23
9/25/2008 108.81 17.61
9/26/2008 108.24 17.72
9/29/2008 99.86 15.83
9/30/2008 103.8 16.68
10/1/2008 101.2 17.6
10/2/2008 96.56 16.85
10/3/2008 95.55 15.19
10/6/2008 89.84 13.45
10/7/2008 91.56 10.84
10/8/2008 91.52 10.95
10/9/2008 90.59 10.95
10/10/2008 83.4 11.4
10/13/2008 86.61 12.88
10/14/2008 84.25 12.94
10/15/2008 80.61 12.84
10/16/2008 76.53 15.75
10/17/2008 78.22 16.91
10/20/2008 80.38 17.28
10/21/2008 78.91 17.45
10/22/2008 73.42 18.5
10/23/2008 74.33 16.38
10/24/2008 70.77 15.44
10/27/2008 69.72 14.44
10/28/2008 68.79 16.21
10/29/2008 74.01 15.39
10/30/2008 73.54 16.94
10/31/2008 75.41 18.92
11/3/2008 72.47 20.45
11/4/2008 79.98 17.94
11/5/2008 75.56 16.53
11/6/2008 71.76 16.25
11/7/2008 72.08 15.98
11/10/2008 72.62 14.02
11/11/2008 69.89 13.77
11/12/2008 66.89 11.72
11/13/2008 68.99 12.73
11/14/2008 67.8 11.4
11/17/2008 65.72 11.91
11/18/2008 64.44 12.5
11/19/2008 64.62 11.31
11/20/2008 60.71 10.59
11/21/2008 61.12 11.3
11/24/2008 65.56 13.26
11/25/2008 62.65 14.46
11/26/2008 66.11 14.54
11/28/2008 66.2 14.68
12/1/2008 61.96 13.87
12/2/2008 60.16 14.78
12/3/2008 60.69 15.19
12/4/2008 58.25 15.48
12/5/2008 55.51 16.35
12/8/2008 58.78 16.99
12/9/2008 56.59 15.79
12/10/2008 56.21 15.77
12/11/2008 60.63 14.49
12/12/2008 59.62 15.05
12/15/2008 58.72 14.59
12/16/2008 58 15.29
12/17/2008 57.27 16.04
12/18/2008 55.45 16.93
12/19/2008 55.97 16.93
12/22/2008 53.21 16.84
12/23/2008 52.65 16.87
12/24/2008 49.62 17.49
12/26/2008 52.17 17.3
12/29/2008 54.18 17.45
12/30/2008 54.5 17.59
12/31/2008 59.51 18.06
1/2/2009 61.05 19.14
1/5/2009 62.87 19.55
1/6/2009 63.09 20.74
1/7/2009 59.49 20.78
1/8/2009 59.23 21.58
1/9/2009 59.48 20.37
1/12/2009 58 19.26
1/13/2009 59.2 19.07
1/14/2009 59.14 17.77
1/15/2009 59.1 18.76
1/16/2009 58.33 20.86
1/20/2009 54.93 19.53
1/21/2009 54.32 17.37
1/22/2009 54.55 17.24
1/23/2009 57.08 17.22
1/26/2009 55.86 16.78
1/27/2009 54.35 14.4
1/28/2009 55.74 16.23
1/29/2009 56.03 14.51
1/30/2009 55.36 13.47
2/2/2009 53.34 13.91
2/3/2009 53.41 12.97
2/4/2009 54.22 13.16
2/5/2009 55.64 13.37
2/6/2009 56.12 14.14
2/9/2009 55.97 14.19
2/10/2009 54.38 13.5
2/11/2009 54.38 11.9
2/12/2009 54.58 13.17
2/13/2009 53.23 13.01
2/17/2009 49.52 12.11
2/18/2009 47.43 11.13
2/19/2009 50.25 10.82
2/20/2009 49.62 10.55
2/23/2009 49.39 11.27
2/24/2009 50.56 11.84
2/25/2009 51.45 11.15
2/26/2009 53.88 10.78
2/27/2009 53.09 10.02
3/2/2009 49.12 9.6
3/3/2009 50.19 8
3/4/2009 52.31 8.37
3/5/2009 51.37 7.26
3/6/2009 52.47 7.24
3/9/2009 52.03 6.44
3/10/2009 52.19 7.7
3/11/2009 50.1 7.47
3/12/2009 53.42 8.1
3/13/2009 52.82 8.54
3/16/2009 53.73 8.3
3/17/2009 56 8.74
3/18/2009 56.31 9.05
3/19/2009 59.88 8.35
3/20/2009 60.45 8.1
3/23/2009 62.84 8.59
3/24/2009 62.42 8.57
3/25/2009 60.88 8.96
3/26/2009 62.23 10.26
3/27/2009 60.89 9.71
3/30/2009 57.83 8.8
3/31/2009 58.51 8.81
4/1/2009 57.33 9.23
4/2/2009 61.74 10.4
4/3/2009 62.14 10.27
4/6/2009 61.44 11.26
4/7/2009 60.49 11.1
4/8/2009 60.78 11.7
4/9/2009 62.67 13.32
4/13/2009 61.06 13.19
4/14/2009 60.8 11.88
4/15/2009 60.03 13.2
4/16/2009 60.46 13.32
4/17/2009 60.39 13.56
4/20/2009 57.33 12.82
4/21/2009 57.25 15
4/22/2009 57.31 13.6
4/23/2009 57.04 13.48
4/24/2009 58.54 13.25
4/27/2009 57.42 11.08
4/28/2009 56.9 10.57
4/29/2009 58.03 10.7
4/30/2009 58.13 10.52
5/1/2009 60.35 10.94
5/4/2009 62.22 12.95
5/5/2009 61.5 13.67
5/6/2009 63.12 13.6
5/7/2009 63.2 12.48
5/8/2009 64.3 12.72
5/11/2009 64.07 12.23
5/12/2009 64.32 11.46
5/13/2009 63.64 10.75
5/14/2009 63.96 10.79
5/15/2009 61.5 10.42
5/18/2009 63.71 11.13
5/19/2009 64.17 10.91
5/20/2009 65.26 10.49
5/21/2009 64.73 10.45
5/22/2009 65.36 9.84
5/26/2009 65.65 9.66
5/27/2009 66.65 8.99
5/28/2009 68.57 8.94
5/29/2009 69.62 9.32
6/1/2009 71.92 10.05
6/2/2009 72.64 11.15
6/3/2009 71.11 10.72
6/4/2009 73.46 10.46
6/5/2009 73.36 10.67
6/8/2009 73.26 9.73
6/9/2009 74.56 9.81
6/10/2009 75.38 9.22
6/11/2009 76.58 9.25
6/12/2009 75.93 9.09
6/15/2009 74.62 8.91
6/16/2009 74.23 9.34
6/17/2009 74.91 9.65
6/18/2009 74.87 9.17
6/19/2009 73.32 9.17
6/22/2009 70.83 8.33
6/23/2009 72.28 8.07
6/24/2009 71.9 8.37
6/25/2009 73.4 8.97
6/26/2009 72.37 8.78
6/29/2009 74.51 8.86
6/30/2009 73.13 8.86
7/1/2009 72.84 9.22
7/2/2009 70.71 9.79
7/6/2009 68.07 9.76
7/7/2009 67.09 9.36
7/8/2009 64.77 9.4
7/9/2009 65.26 9.39
7/10/2009 64.52 10
7/13/2009 64.18 9.88
7/14/2009 64.12 9.8
7/15/2009 66.54 10.14
7/16/2009 67.36 9.96
7/17/2009 68.86 9.75
7/20/2009 69.94 10.17
7/21/2009 70.11 9.42
7/22/2009 70.72 9.22
7/23/2009 72.48 9.24
7/24/2009 73.35 10.08
7/27/2009 73.2 10.12
7/28/2009 72.24 10.96
7/29/2009 69.06 11.42
7/30/2009 72.5 10.99
7/31/2009 73.95 11.17
8/3/2009 75.81 11.49
8/4/2009 76.44 11.88
8/5/2009 77.15 12.28
8/6/2009 76.94 11.99
8/7/2009 75.71 12.39
8/10/2009 75.89 12.1
8/11/2009 74.58 11.92
8/12/2009 75.03 12.25
8/13/2009 75.5 12.43
8/14/2009 72.8 12.33
8/17/2009 72.07 11.51
8/18/2009 73.96 11.87
8/19/2009 76.26 11.62
8/20/2009 75.24 12.04
8/21/2009 76.13 13.05
8/24/2009 76.38 13.09
8/25/2009 74.15 13.65
8/26/2009 73.68 13.6
8/27/2009 74.53 13.36
8/28/2009 74.78 13.6
8/31/2009 72 13.27
9/1/2009 70.13 12.51
9/2/2009 69.96 12.84
9/3/2009 69.73 13.38
9/4/2009 69.63 13.7
9/8/2009 72.45 13.73
9/9/2009 72.62 13.71
9/10/2009 72.97 14.66
9/11/2009 70.68 14.73
9/14/2009 70.37 15.1
9/15/2009 72.14 16.26
9/16/2009 73.65 16.62
9/17/2009 73.93 16.32
9/18/2009 73.61 15.93
9/21/2009 70.94 17.37
9/22/2009 72.69 16.78
9/23/2009 70.06 16.15
9/24/2009 66.93 16.03
9/25/2009 66.9 16.81
9/28/2009 67.64 16.76
9/29/2009 67.53 16.52
9/30/2009 71.31 16.44
10/1/2009 71.63 15.08
10/2/2009 70.78 15.62
10/5/2009 70.98 15.88
10/6/2009 71.52 16.07
10/7/2009 70.34 15.85
10/8/2009 72.72 16.36
10/9/2009 72.84 16.15
10/12/2009 74.28 16.3
10/13/2009 75.29 16.53
10/14/2009 76.12 17.16
10/15/2009 78.59 16.7
10/16/2009 79.5 15.91
10/19/2009 80.43 15.69
10/20/2009 79.68 15.92
10/21/2009 81.96 13.73
10/22/2009 81.84 13.34
10/23/2009 81.19 12.58
10/26/2009 79.37 12.03
10/27/2009 80.15 12.36
10/28/2009 78.06 11.6
10/29/2009 80.4 11.75
10/30/2009 77.64 11.5
11/2/2009 78.82 11.32
11/3/2009 80.26 11.58
11/4/2009 81.07 11.54
11/5/2009 80.28 11.74
11/6/2009 78.09 12.77
11/9/2009 80.07 13.07
11/10/2009 79.64 12.85
11/11/2009 79.92 13.5
11/12/2009 77.65 13.2
11/13/2009 77.03 13.21
11/16/2009 79.53 13.75
11/17/2009 79.72 13.68
11/18/2009 80.1 13.37
11/19/2009 78.05 12.97
11/20/2009 77.47 12.86
11/23/2009 77.56 13.32
11/24/2009 76.02 13.25
11/25/2009 77.96 13.45
11/27/2009 76.05 13.59
11/30/2009 77.28 14.26
12/1/2009 78.37 14.96
12/2/2009 76.9 15.67
Crude Oil Price vs. CAL
150 50
130
40
110
30
90
20
70
50 10
30 0
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09
Crude Oil CAL
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E
16.0% 21.8% 23.1% 23.6% 32.2% 21.0%
Fuel Costs as a Percenta
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2004 2005
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
5,980.0 5,837.0 5,603.0 5,433.0 5,018.0 5,890.0 Debt
100%
792.0 155.0 226.0 347.0 1,550.0 105.0 Equity
1,169.0 1,389.0 1,964.0 2,388.0 2,307.0 2,355.0 Cash
75%
50%
25%
0%
2003 2004
Cash
el Costs as a Percentage of Total
Revenue
2006 2007 2008 2009E
Capital Structure
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Cash Equity Debt
CAL Comp Average LUV DAL AMR
Load Factor 8510% 8325% 7960% 8580% 8390%
Load Factor 85% 83% 80% 86% 84%
Load Factor (3Q 2009)
87%
86%
85%
84%
83%
82%
81%
80%
79%
78%
CAL Comp LUV DAL AMR
Average
JBLU
8370%
84%
AMR JBLU
205.8 217.3 297.5 197.4 216.5 239.0 260.1 270.2 282.2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013 2014
Jet Fuel Prices (Transportation)
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
Jet Fuel Prices
(Transportation)
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E
Maturity Year Amount (mn)
2010 289
2011 915
2012 219
2013 623
2014 218
2015 359
2016 390
2017 505
2018 1,187
2019 1,044
2020 561 Debt Distribution
2021 732 1400
2022 979
1200
2023
2024 1000
2025 800
600
400
200
0
2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
Amount (mn)
2022
94 4,601.18
8 12,686 176%
1 2 3 4 5 6
Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09
38,702 39,465 40,170 38,086 38,492 36,382
Mar-07 38,702
Apr-07 38,702
May-07 38,702
Jun-07 38,702
Jul-07 38,702
Aug-07 38,702
Sep-07 39,465
Oct-07 39,465
Nov-07 39,465
Dec-07 39,465 41,000
Jan-08 39,465
Feb-08 39,465
Mar-08 40,170 40,000
Apr-08 40,170 Sep-07
May-08 40,170 Mar-08
Jun-08 40,170 Sep-08
39,000
Jul-08 40,170 Mar-09
Aug-08 40,170 Sep-09
Sep-08 38,086
Oct-08 38,087 38,000
Nov-08 38,088
Dec-08 38,089
Jan-09 38,090 37,000
Feb-09 38,091
Mar-09 38,492
Apr-09 38,492
36,000
May-09 38,492
Jun-09 38,492
Jul-09 38,492
Aug-09 38,492
Sep-09 36,382
Oct-09 36,383
Nov-09 36,384
Dec-09 36,385
Jan-10 36,386
Feb-10 36,387
Income Statement Support
($ in thousands, except per share data - FYE Dec) Actual Estimated Projected
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Projection Drivers
9,005
Depreciation & Amortization 10,355 13,536 17,324 17,730 19,847 19,847 20,244 20,851 % Total Revenue
% Revenue Growth
Total Net Sales 46.0% 17.2% 29.0% 16.9% (2.6)% (5.0)% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0%
Ratio & Margin Analysis (% of Revenue)
Expenses
COGS 36.0% 34.4% 36.1% 37.5% 38.0% 38.0% 38.5% 39.0% 39.5% Increase 50 bps
SG&A 0.0% 24.1% 25.4% 26.3% 26.5% 27.0% 27.2% 27.4% 27.6% Increase 20 bps
D&A 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% Keep constant
29.6%
Other Operating Expenses 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Keep constant
Extraordinary Items
0.0%
Extraordinary Charge (Expense) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Keep constant
Income
Non-Operating Interest 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 1.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Keep constant
0.1%
Interest On Debt (Expense) 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Keep constant
- Net
Other Income/Expense 1.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% Keep constant
Margins
EBIT Margin 31.5% 36.4% 34.3% 31.6% 29.9% 31.0% 30.3% 29.6% 28.9%
EBITDA Margin 34.5% 39.3% 37.3% 34.8% 33.3% 35.0% 34.3% 33.6% 32.9%
Net Margin 21.2% 24.1% 23.1% 21.9% 22.0% 20.2% 19.7% 19.2% 18.8%
Effective Tax Rate
36.8% 35.7% 35.5% 34.1% 29.7% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% 35.0% Keep constant
Change in Working Capital Requirements
2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Keep constant
% of D Revenue 2,392 1,303 2,576 1,940 (354) (653) - 248 380
BIJOU BRIGITTE MODISCHE ACCESSOIRES AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (BIJ)
Proforma Income Statement
Blue: Inputs & Assumptions Current Price: $ 185.51
Proforma Income Statement
($ in millions) 2007 2008 2009E 2010P 2011P 2012P
Total Net Sales $ 14,232 $ 15,241 $ 12,526 $ 13,481 $ 14,961 $ 16,859 $ 14.23 $ 15.24 $ 12.53
Growth Rate 8.4% 7.1% (17.8)% 7.6% 11.0% 12.7%
Total Expenses $ 13,545 $ 15,555 $ 12,745 $ 13,312 $ 14,550 $ 16,016 $ 13.55 $ 15.56 $ 12.75
% of Revenue 95.2% 102.1% 101.8% 98.8% 97.3% 95.0%
EBIT $ 687 $ (314) $ (219) $ 169 $ 411 $ 843 $ 0.69 $ (0.31) $ (0.22)
EBIT Margin 4.8% (2.1)% (1.8)% 1.3% 2.8% 5.0%
EBITDAR $ 1,984 $ 1,100 $ 1,190 $ 1,517 $ 1,795 $ 2,318 $ 1.98 $ 1.10 $ 1.19
EBITDAR Margin 13.9% 7.2% 9.5% 11.3% 12.0% 13.8%
Net Income $ 459 $ (585) $ (393) $ (18) $ 202 $ 592 $ 0.46 $ (0.59) $ (0.39)
Net Margin 3.2% (3.8)% (3.1)% (0.1)% 1.4% 3.5%
Diluted Earnings Per Share $ 10.60 $ 13.08 $ 14.49 $ 14.30 $ 12.46 $ 12.18 $ 12.14 $ 12.20
$ 10.28 $ (After $
Diluted Earnings Per Share from Continuing Op.12.55 Tax) 13.79 $ 13.67 $ 12.46 $ 12.18 $ 12.14 $ 12.20
EBITDA $ 104,661 $ 139,843 $ 171,060 $ 186,863 $ 173,662 $ 173,660 $ 170,186 $ 170,047 $ 171,500 EBIT + D&A
EBITDA Margin 34.5% 39.3% 37.3% 34.8% 33.3% 35.0% 34.3% 33.6% 32.9% % of Revenue
BIJOU BRIGITTE MODISCHE ACCESSOIRES AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (BIJ)
Valuation Summary and Recommendation
Current Information Last Update: 10/14/09
Price $ 16
Equity Value (mn) $ 2,277 Rating: Buy
Total Enterprise Value (mn) $ 5,595 Current information
Trading at a discount
Intrinsic Values Implied EV (mn) P* % Over-(Under) Net and EBIT margin vs competito
Relative Valuation (2009E) $ 5,811 $ 18 (8.7)% ROE ROA ROIC
DCF EBITDA Method $ 6,642 $ 24 (31.5)% Driven by low cost of sales and SG
DCF Perpetuity Method $ 6,504 $ 23 (28.5)% Email Alex
Relative Valuation Metrics
Metric Period Bijou Comp Ave. LUV DAL AMR
P/E 2009 -6.4x 28.2x 92.0x -6.2x -1.3x
2010E -138.2x 9.5x 27.1x 8.4x -6.9x
2011P 12.5x 4.9x 15.9x 6.5x -7.6x
Price/Sales 2010E 0.4x 0.5x 0.7x 0.6x 0.3x
TEV/EBITDA 2009 4.7x 8.4x 7.2x 9.5x 8.4x
` 2010E 3.7x 4.3x 5.3x 4.2x 3.6x
2011P 3.1x 3.8x 4.0x 4.1x 3.2x
Dividend Yield 5% 2% 0% 4% 2%
Gross Margin LFY 62% 53% 54% 62% 44%
EBIT Margin LFY 31% 10% 12% 1% 15%
Net Margin LFY 24% 6% 9% 1% 10%
ROE LFY 37% 16% 18% 1% 30%
ROA LFY 30% 11% 13% 1% 19%
ROIC LFY 34% 15% 17% 1% 28%
Recommendation BUY
Investment Thesis
Bijou is undervalued both on a relative and DCF basis.
Bijou's EBIT And Net Margins are significantly higher than the industry average.
Bijou's Net margin is at 24% while comp average is about 6%, giving them an edge over its competitors.
Just like the EBIT and net margins, Bijou's ROA and ROE are clearly superior compared to the competitors.
With relative valuation result trading at a 14% discount a strong management ratios (ROA, ROA, and ROIC).
We expect Bijou to continue to outperform.
Company Description
Bijou Brigitte produces and sells fasion jewellery in European countries. The company is based out of Germany.
Key Assumptions
We assumed Bijou will experience another year with decrease in revenue , 5% decrease in 2009.
We expect their sales number to recover very slowly in the next 3 years, 0%, 2%, 3% for 2010, 2011, 2012.
Bijou's very good ROA, ROE, and ROIC numbers are mainly driven by their low cost
of goods sold of 38% and SG&A of 27%, we expect this trend to continue.
Comparables Used Fossil (FOSL) Movado (MOV) Guess? (GES)
Notes Regarding Quarterly Data & Segments
Bijou's (a German company) quarterly data was not availble on RI Web, Thomson One, or Bloomberg.
Bloomberg's company information had limited segment data (broken down to countries, not by their operations)
but it was inconsistent with Thomson One financial statements.
Thomson One was chosen for consistency and depth of financial information
Sources:
Thompson One Analytics and Bloomberg
Rating: Buy
Current information
Trading at a discount
Net and EBIT margin vs competitors
ROE ROA ROIC
Driven by low cost of sales and SG&A
2008 2009E 2009 3Q
Net Sales
Passenger 13737 15093.4
Total Mainline 11382 12573.55
Domestic 5633 5914.65 3415
Transactlantic 2983 3579.6 1700
Latin America 1750 2012.5 1126
Pacific 1016 1066.8 699
Regional 2355 2519.85 1391
Cargo 497 546.7 259
Other 1007 1208.4 814
Total Net Sales 8870 15241 16848.5
Wages & Salaries $ 2,957 2358
Aircraft Fuel & Taxes 4,905 2507
Aircraft Rentals 976 705
Landing Fees & Other Rentals 853 647
Commissions & Other Distribution Costs 717 467
Maintenance, Materials, & Repairs 612 473
D&A 438 353
Other Operating Expenses 4,097 2041
2008 3Q Ratio %
4339.263 1.298147 -21.30% 4433.171
2328.767 1.280935 -27.00% 2177.59
1356.627 1.289964 -17.00% 1452.5
776.6667 1.308155 -10.00% 914.4
1830.263 1.2867 -24.00% 1789.8
383.1361 1.297189 -32.40% 335.972
755.102 1.333595 7.80% 1085.546
2197 1.345926 3173.694
4722 1.038755 2604.158
736 1.326087 934.8913
643 1.326594 858.3064
558 1.284946 600.0699
478 1.280335 605.5983
327 1.33945 472.8257
2399 1.707795 3485.609