all

Section A. Specific Aims



This competing continuation proposal examines a developmental model of adolescents‘ peer and family

experiences as predictors of long-term psychosocial outcomes in adulthood. The ongoing study represents

one of the most intensive extant observational assessments of adolescent social development within the

family and peer group. It includes in-depth, multi-method assessments of 184 adolescents obtained

annually from ages 13 to 22, including sociometric assessments, repeated observations of teen-parent and

teen-peer social interactions, and interview data from teens, parents, close and distal peers, and teen

romantic partners.

We propose to follow this original sample from ages 23 to 27 to examine theoretically-predicted links

from adolescent socialization experiences with peers and parents to psychosocial functioning in adulthood.

We focus upon two stage-salient tasks of adolescence—establishing autonomy and maintaining and building

social bonds—and we hypothesize that the resolution of these tasks will be fundamental to successful adult

psychosocial functioning. We also assess theoretically-salient cognitive, affective, and contextual factors that

may account for continuities and discontinuities from adolescent to adult relationship quality and functioning,

and that may potentially serve as targets for intervention efforts.

This study is designed not only to advance our theoretical understanding of adult social development, but

also to add an essential component to our understanding of adolescent development. We build on the large

body of research that has examined relational predictors of functioning within adolescence, but we now seek to

extend and ground this research by determining which of the many qualities of social relationships identified as

important within adolescence are actually predictive of long-term, life outcomes in adulthood. We organize our

efforts into three primary Aims identifying long-term relationship continuities, their mediators, and their ultimate

functional outcomes:

Aim 1: Parent and Peer Predictors of Adult Relationship Quality: We begin by seeking to identify critical

continuities and discontinuities in adolescent relationship qualities that persist into early adulthood. We focus

upon identifying predictors of aspects of adult relationships—particularly social isolation and hostility—known

to be closely linked to both mental and physical health. We will assess theoretically hypothesized continuities

across time, across relationship types, and across stage-salient patterns of behavior, in an effort to identify the

qualities of adolescent relationships with the greatest import for adult psychosocial functioning.

Aim 2: Mediators & Moderators of Continuities and Discontinuities from Adolescence to Adulthood:

We next examine several processes that potentially mediate the continuities or account for the discontinuities

identified in Aim 1. We focus on three specific factors that each have the potential to mediate or alter the

effects of critical adolescent experiences on future adult functioning. These include the individual‘s attachment

organization, rejection sensitivity, and major developmental/contextual transitions.

Aim 3: Early Adult Adaptational Outcomes: Direct & Mediated Pathways from Adolescence: Ultimately,

we are interested in the ways in which relationship continuities and intrapsychic and contextual factors

identified in the first two Aims ―flow through‖ to predict broader qualities of adult mental health and functioning.

In this Aim, we consider adolescent-era peer and family predictors of three key adult outcomes: internalizing

symptoms, externalizing symptoms, and the development of functional autonomy (e.g., the capacity to manage

one‘s own career, financial, and residential needs). We assess both direct predictions from adolescent

relationship qualities, as well as predictions mediated via adult relationship qualities (Aim 1) and intrapsychic

and contextual factors (Aim 2).

We address all of these questions with observational and multi-reporter data from a socio-

demographically heterogeneous final sample of 172 adolescents, their parents, peers, and romantic partners

followed across a fifteen-year span. Overall, this study seeks to identify essential qualities of adolescents‘

relationships with peers and parents that predict long-term success or failure in adult functioning so as to

inform: a) parents, educators, and clinicians working with adolescents and young adults; b) interventions

targeting parenting behaviors and/or peer influences (e.g., delinquency, aggression, and substance abuse

prevention and treatment programs); and c) developing theories of the links between social relationships and

functional outcomes across this critical portion of the lifespan.

Section B. Background & Significance



Early adulthood appears as a critical choice point in social development. The decrease in normative

role structures in this period is dramatic as individuals move from the universal schooling of adolescence to

diverse paths that may include marriage, full-time employment, continued educational pursuits, and residence

with parents, peers, a spouse, or on one‘s own (Arnett, 2000; Schulenberg et al., 2006). Residential and

geographic instability during this period also brings about rapid changes in peer networks (Osgood et al., 2005;

Schulenberg et al., 2005). Although these transitions are often positive, they become a source of stress for

those who have reached this point less prepared, and not surprisingly the incidence of mental health problems

increases steadily during this period (Gore & Aseltine, 2003; Osgood et al., 2005; Schulenberg et al., 2005;

Schulenberg et al., 2006).

The costs of failures to establish positive social relationships in early adulthood are staggering. As the

structured interactions of secondary schooling give way to the more diffuse social contacts provided by work or

higher education, social isolation becomes a major (albeit rarely studied) risk. Remarkably, meta-analyses

indicate that adult social isolation creates a greater overall risk of future mortality than does cigarette

smoking (House et al., 1988), with effects ranging from endothelial injury to disturbances in endocrine and

immune systems (Cacioppo et al., 2002; Knox & Uvnas-Moberg, 1998; Phillips et al., 2006; Uchino et al.,

1996). Social isolation has been linked to numerous psychosocial problems as well, ranging from anxiety,

depression, and risk of suicide, to long-term family problems (Barber et al., 2001; Kawachi, 2001; Newcomb &

Bentler, 1988). Levels of adult social isolation have increased dramatically in the United States over the past

two decades, with 1 in 4 adults now reporting they have no one with whom they can discuss important matters

in their lives—a phenomenon that crosses both gender and racial/ethnic lines (McPherson et al., 2006).

Although a lack of relationships can be debilitating, the presence of relationships characterized by high

degrees of hostile, conflictual behavior has equally troubling long-term ramifications. Enduring patterns

of hostility in relationships are linked not only to multiple DSM-IV Personality Disorder diagnoses, work

difficulties, and risk of completed suicide (Duberstein et al., 1996; McCann et al., 1997; Rutter & Behrendt,

2004; Virtanen et al., 2005), but also to negative physical health outcomes ranging from coronary heart

disease to immunological suppression (Kiecolt-Glaser et al., 1993; Smith et al., 2003; Whiteman et al., 2000).

The magnitude of the problem is reflected in current estimates that 35% to 65% of young adults have been

involved in romantic relationships marked by violence between partners—rates that increase steadily from late

adolescence into the early twenties (Magdol et al., 1997).

Developmental Continuities & Discontinuities from Adolescence to Adulthood

To fully understand and prevent these negative adult outcomes requires understanding their links to

the developmental processes that preceded them. This proposed continuation is explicitly designed as a

study of both adolescence and adulthood. Most of our theoretical understanding of the principles of

adolescent development—from the push for autonomy to the intense focus on peer relationships—presumes

that this development is ultimately oriented toward preparing the adolescent to meet the challenges of

adulthood. Given the difficulties of conducting lifespan studies, however, the vast bulk of adolescent

research does not examine these actual adult outcomes, but rather identifies predictors of functioning within

adolescence. A critical challenge for our field, particularly in a world with limited resources for intervention, is

to distinguish those adolescent behaviors that are temporarily disturbing or troublesome from those that will

predict serious dysfunction in adulthood. Research on adult outcomes thus becomes essential for

understanding the long-term developmental import of many adolescent social experiences.

The proposed study will test a developmental conceptualization that considers relationship problems

in early adulthood as linked to two critical tasks in adolescence: the need to establish autonomous decision-

making capacity and the importance of developing and maintaining supportive social bonds. Figure 1 below

provides a broad heuristic overview of this conceptualization.

The experience of managing conflict in relationships so as to develop personal autonomy while

maintaining relationships has long been identified as a key feature of adolescent development (Allen et al.,

1994a; Hill & Holmbeck, 1986). Although there are a number of ways of conceptualizing such autonomy, we

have focused in adolescence upon the process of establishing verbal and emotional autonomy—assessed in

terms of the capacity to state one‘s own views during disagreements while maintaining a sense of

relatedness with one‘s partner in the discussion. Conceptualized in this way, autonomy in adolescent-parent

Early Adulthood

and adolescent-peer

Adolescence

relationships has been linked to

Parental Relationships Peer Relationships Relationships Behavioral Adaptation short-term outcomes such as

Verbal Behavioral Conflict lower levels of depression and

Functional

Autonomy vs. Autonomy Management Autonomy problem behaviors, and to

Enmeshment vs. Peer Pressure vs. Hostility

longer-term outcomes including

attachment security, reduced

Cognitive,

Externalizing susceptibility to peer pressure,

Affective,

& Contextual Symptoms and stronger peer relationships

Factors (Allen et al., 2006a; Allen &

Hauser, 1996; Allen et al.,

Social Support

Social Support Social Support

Internalizing 1994b; Allen et al., 2002a;

vs. Peer vs. Social

vs. Alienation

Rejection Isolation

Symptoms Chango et al., 2007).

Autonomy issues are

Figure 1 – Heuristic Overview of Social Developmental Tasks of Adolescence and Early Adulthood central to adolescent

development in large part

because the adolescent is preparing to transition not only to establishing new relationships characterized by

verbal and emotional autonomy but also to establishing behavioral autonomy across diverse contexts as an

adult. The verbal and emotional autonomy assessed in adolescence is thus thought to be the developmental

precursor of the capacity to act autonomously and self-sufficiently while establishing close relationships in

adulthood (O'Connor et al., 1996). Remarkably, however, almost no research to date has examined the

extent to which adolescent verbal and emotional autonomy processes lead not only to similar processes in

adult relationships, but also to broader elements of autonomous functioning within and beyond close adult

relationships.



Similarly, establishing supportive social relationships beyond the family is a central task of adolescence

that has also been theoretically linked to emotion regulation and social functioning across the lifespan

(Berscheid, 2003; Collins, 1997). Ironically, the same factors that increase the need for autonomous decision-

making and social support in early adulthood (e.g., geographic mobility, residential changes, major impending

life decisions) also make it more challenging to form and utilize stable close relationships to provide that

support. Thus, while the ability to establish supportive peer relationships is of great import during adolescence,

the template that these relationships establishes may become truly critical in early adulthood as peers become

primary sources of support. Surprisingly, this transition in support processes from adolescence to adulthood

has also only been minimally studied.

In assessing continuities and discontinuities from adolescence to adulthood, we adopt a critical

developmental tasks perspective on long-term continuities (Sroufe, 1997). This perspective recognizes that it

is under developmental stress—facing a conflict, a new social situation, or a personal challenge—that

profound difficulties in functioning are most likely to become manifest and lead to long-term negative

outcomes. We also recognize that to optimally inform both intervention and theory development, we need to

not only identify long-term continuities and discontinuities in development but also to begin to understand the

processes that can account for these continuities and discontinuities. This approach will permit greater

understanding both of factors in adolescence that have long-term prognostic value and of factors that may

help explain discontinuities in functioning over time—whether these discontinuities are manifest as resilience

in the face of prior risks or as deterioration relative to prior levels of functioning and experience.

In the proposed study, we begin by seeking to identify several specific, fundamental continuities in

autonomy and connection processes across a fifteen-year span from adolescence to adulthood (Aim 1). We

then examine affective, cognitive, and contextual mediators and moderators of the continuities and

discontinuities we observe (Aim 2). Ultimately, we consider both relationship processes and intrapsychic and

contextual factors as predictors of early adult mental health and broader patterns of functioning (Aim 3).

Aim 1: Parent and Peer Predictors of Early Adult Relationship Quality

Strikingly, the overwhelming majority of prospective studies of continuities and discontinuities in

relationship quality from adolescence onward leave off by age 23. This is the starting point of this

continuation and an age at which many adults are just beginning to make autonomous decisions with lifelong

ramifications, and to form close relationships that will be potentially lifelong in nature. Our first Aim is

designed to clarify the primary types of continuity that exist in relationship qualities from adolescence into

adulthood. As outlined in Figure 2 below, we propose a series of theoretically-derived hypotheses about

continuities across relationship types, across different types of behavior, and across developmental epochs.

Hypotheses for Aim 1:

1.1 Continuities in relationship qualities will be observed from parent-teen relationships in adolescence to peer

relationships in adulthood, and from non-romantic peer interactions in adolescence to romantic partner

interactions in adulthood.

In addition, specific behavioral continuities will be observed from:

1.2 Adolescent failure to establish autonomy in conflicts to hostility in adulthood;

1.3 Adolescent failure to obtain social support to both hostility and social isolation in adulthood.

Continuities Across Relationship Types. The transition from adolescence to adulthood is

accompanied by dramatic changes in both peer and parent

relationships. Peer relationships evolve from adolescent Expected Relationship Continuities:

chumships to lifelong romantic relationships, while relationships Adolescence to Early Adulthood

with parents are transitioning from dependent relationships to

equal (or even caretaking) relationships. We thus do not expect Continuities Across Relationship Type:

continuities across this period necessarily to be homotypic in Adolescence Adulthood

nature—a search for such homotypic continuity might well yield Parental Peer

more apparent discontinuity than continuity. Rather, consistent Relationships Relationships

with our focus on the critical developmental tasks of this period,

we expect to find heterotypic continuity in which success meeting Same Gender Romantic

salient social developmental tasks in adulthood is best predicted Friendships Relationships

by success meeting developmentally analogous tasks of

adolescence—even if these play out in different relationships with Continuities Across Relationship Behavior:

different challenges across these two eras. Adolescence Adulthood



We are increasingly finding that within adolescence, for Lack of Relationship

Autonomy Hostility

example, peer relationship qualities do not emerge de novo, but

rather display striking continuities with parent-teen relationship Lack of Social

qualities in domains ranging from warmth in interactions to Support/ Social

Rejection Isolation

management of conflicts (see Progress Report). We hypothesize

that this transfer from parent to peer interaction qualities will

Figure 2

continue into adulthood.

Similarly, we do not expect adult romantic relationship qualities necessarily to be best predicted by

qualities of early adolescent romantic relationships. In part, romantic relationships in early adolescence are

likely to lack the longevity necessary to allow true give-and-take intimacy and autonomy negotiations to fully

emerge, and the onset of these relationships appears more determined by local school and neighborhood

norms than by developmental status (Dornbusch, 1981; Roisman et al., 2004b). We do, however, expect

qualities of intimacy and autonomy in non-romantic close friendships and in parent-teen relationships to tap

developmental processes with great relevance for adult romantic relationship quality. Although peer

predictors of adult romantic relationship functioning have not been examined, this proposed link finds support

from studies within adolescence in which peer interactions outside of a romantic context predict qualities of

behavior within romantic relationships (Conger et al., 2001; Connolly et al., 2000a; Furman & Wehner, 1994;

Prinstein & La Greca, 2004). Initial evidence also suggests links between parenting and later romantic

relationship functioning (Donnellan et al., 2005). Qualities of these parent and peer relationships are

expected to account for aspects of adult romantic relationships over and above predictions from adolescent-

era romantic relationships—one example of the ways in which our developmental perspective can help

explain apparent discontinuities in different domains of functioning (e.g., in romantic behavior) over time.

Within early adulthood we also recognize that for many individuals, this is appropriately a time of exploration.

Thus, again using our developmental perspective, we focus not only on discrete outcomes (e.g., marriage)

but also on the task of engagement in relationships characterized by significant intimacy and support and by

absence of severe levels of hostile conflict and aggression.

Continuities from Undermined Autonomy to Adult Hostility. Although autonomy achievement

appears to be a fundamental task of adolescent development, the converse of autonomy over time does not

appear to be dependence, but hostility. In a prior, long-term follow-up with a clinical sample, adolescents

lacking verbal autonomy in observed interactions with their parents at age 16 were rated as significantly more

hostile (r = .50***) by their peers 9 years later at age 25 (Allen et al., 2002a). Similarly, others have found that

difficulties with separation/individuation from parents predicts poor adjustment in young, newly married couples

(Haws & Mallinckrodt, 1998; Kim et al., 2001). A lack of autonomy appears to set up the adolescent or early

adult to see any conflict in relationships as a threat to a fragile sense of personal autonomy and to respond

hostilely in return.

We thus hypothesize that one of the primary predictors of later hostility across an array of relationships

will be difficulty achieving autonomy vis a vis parental and peer relationships. We also expect considerable

stability in levels of hostile behavior over time based on existing findings regarding hostility in both intimate

partner relationships (Connolly et al., 2000a; Connolly & Goldberg, 1999; Connolly et al., 2000b; Furman et al.,

2002) and same gender relationships (Nelson & Dishion, 2004). Gender, socioeconomic status, and

racial/ethnic main effects also appear potentially linked to future hostility (Caetano et al., 2000; Rennison &

Planty, 2003; Rosen et al., 2002), and we will incorporate these factors into our analyses as covariates and

potential moderators.

Continuities in Social Support Processes. While at least some research has focused on

continuities in patterns of conflict from adolescence onward, there has been a dearth of research examining

predictions from adolescent experiences of social support or rejection to later adult social isolation or hostility.

Attachment theory (Bowlby, 1969/1982, 1988) suggests that experiences of support under stress are likely to

have enduring impacts upon future social cognition and behavior. Parents who provide a secure base of

support for their adolescents may leave them with a fundamental comfort and desire to seek out similar

relationships throughout the lifespan, including the formation of secure intimate partner relationships in

adulthood (Donnellan et al., 2005; Sroufe, 2005; Sroufe et al., 2005b). Beyond the family, close adolescent

friendships—in addition to serving as significant contemporaneous sources of support—also serve as a

training ground for navigating adult-like relationships among equals.

In contrast to supportive relationships, the experience of social rejection can be one of the most

searing negative experiences in the adolescent‘s social world. Rejection by peers in childhood or

adolescence is linked to outcomes within adolescence ranging from depressive symptoms to antisocial

behavior and aggression (Laird et al., 2001; Nelson & Dishion, 2004; Prinstein et al., 2005). Adults, unlike

adolescents, can more readily select their peer groups—thus the risk of rejection by one‘s peers may be

comparatively less—but this risk of rejection may simply be replaced by greater risks of social isolation for

adults seeking to avoid peer rejection. Also, as development progresses, peers can simply ‗vote with their

feet‘ by avoiding contact with other undesired peers. Sroufe and colleagues (2005b) report significant links

between prior parent and peer relationships and social functioning up through age 21. Two long-term

longitudinal studies have found continuities from positive childhood interactions with peers to positive adult

peer relationships (Bagwell et al., 1998; Eisenberg et al., 2002). These provide at least inferential evidence

that qualities of peer relationships in adolescence will predict ability to form and maintain subsequent close

adult peer relationships. Accordingly, we expect to find continuity from both absence of social support and

from experiences of social rejection in adolescence to increased risk for adult social isolation and for ongoing

hostility in adult social relationships that do become established.

Aim 2: Mediators and Moderators of Continuities and Discontinuities from Adolescence to

Adulthood

Although identifying key relationship continuities across the critical transition from adolescence to

early adulthood is an important first step, several essential follow-up questions immediately arise: How are

long-term continuities in relationship behaviors maintained? And in the absence of long-term continuities,

what factors can predict or explain disruptions in such continuities over time? The mediators and moderators

of such continuities and discontinuities, if they can be identified, provide promising targets for both preventive

and remedial interventions to improve adult outcomes. We view mediation from the vantage point of theories

of cumulative continuity (Caspi et al., 1989; Rutter & Sroufe, 2000), which suggest that adolescent-era

experiences will predict adult outcomes in part because the consequences of these experiences accumulate

so as to make similar future experiences more likely. Rather than trying to assess every potential mediator,

we hew closely to our theoretical focus by assessing ways in which processes of negotiating autonomy and

support in relationships become internalized or instantiated in social contexts to mediate relationship

continuities over time (see Figure 3 below). We assess factors that may explain continuities and

Adolescent Relationships Adult Relationships discontinuities in autonomy and support processes at

Internal & Contextual Mediators

multiple levels of analysis, from intrapsychic factors such as

Verbal

Autonomy vs.

Attachment Relationship attachment states of mind and rejection sensitivity to

Security Hostility

Enmeshment broader contextual factors such as entry into marriage or

independent residential status, recognizing that these levels

of analysis are interrelated.

Rejection

Sensitivity Hypotheses for Aim 2:

2.1: Attachment security will mediate links from social

Social Social support and verbal autonomy in adolescence to social

Contextual

Support

Changes

Support support and avoidance of hostility in adulthood.

vs. Rejection vs. Isolation

2.2: Rejection sensitivity will mediate links from adolescent

Figure 3 – Proposed Mediators of Relationship Continuities & Discontinuities experiences of parental and peer rejection to adult hostility

and social isolation.

2.3: Contextual changes will partially account for both continuities and discontinuities from adolescent-era

experiences to adult hostility, social isolation, and psychosocial functioning.

Attachment security. As noted above, Bowlby‘s attachment theory (Bowlby, 1969/1982; Bowlby, 1980)

posits a fundamental human orientation toward utilizing others to manage experiences of stress, challenge,

and potential danger. By adolescence, it is possible to assess internalized states of mind regarding

attachment to capture the individual‘s basic orientation toward attachment relationships (Hesse, 1999). A

vast body of work over the past two decades has established links from security in this state of mind to

markers of functioning, including severe mental illness, hostility in relationships, social isolation, and

intergenerational transmission of patterns of childrearing (Kobak & Sceery, 1988; Rosenstein & Horowitz,

1996; Sroufe et al., 2005a; van IJzendoorn & Bakermans-Kranenburg, 1997). Although sometimes stable

across multiple generations (Benoit & Parker, 1994), attachment security also appears to be susceptible to

influence by environmental factors (Waters et al., 2000; Weinfield et al., 2000). Within adolescence, both

intrapsychic and family relationship factors can predict change (i.e., discontinuity) in levels of security (Allen

et al., 2004). No research, however, has examined changing attachment representations across the

transition to adulthood, even though this period is marked by fundamental shifts in attachment as peers and

romantic partners ultimately replace parents as primary attachment figures. We posit that changes in

security in an individual‘s model of attachment will be predicted by qualities of autonomy and social support in

relationships with parents and close peers in adolescence. Further, internalized attachment security is

expected to mediate links from these relationship qualities to the ability to attain social support, establish

secure attachment relationships with intimate partners, and avoid hostility in social relationships in adulthood.

Rejection sensitivity. Sensitivity to rejection has recently emerged as a primary marker of risk for a

broad array of negative psychosocial outcomes. Rejection sensitivity captures a cognitive and affective

orientation toward social relationships in which the individual has heightened expectations of rejection, a

tendency to perceive rejection in ambiguous situations, and hypersensitivity to actual experiences of rejection

(Downey & Feldman, 1996; Downey et al., 1998a). Rejection sensitivity appears to function as a broad

interpersonal vulnerability that distorts social behavior and creates a self-fulfilling prophecy of rejection in

relationships (Downey et al., 1999; Downey et al., 2000; Downey et al., 1998b; Pietrzak et al., 2005).

Rejection sensitivity and related attributional biases have been linked to a wide array of negative outcomes

ranging from depression and avoidance of social situations, to conflict and aggression in close relationships

(Downey & Feldman, 1996; Downey et al., 2004; Prinstein & Aikins, 2004). Although we know a great deal

about what rejection sensitivity predicts, aside from one study linking rejection sensitivity to insecure

attachment (Downey et al., 1998b), we know very little about the relationship experiences that lead an

individual to develop rejection sensitivity over time. We hypothesize that parental and peer rejection of

adolescents‘ efforts to attain social support will predict increasing rejection sensitivity which in turn will mediate

continuities to later social isolation and/or hostility in relationships in adulthood.

Contextual changes and developmental continuities and discontinuities. As noted above, early

adulthood is marked by significant shifts in social context, some of which actually reflect developing functional

autonomy, and each of which potentially affects psychosocial functioning. Our approach recognizes that

major contextual changes in early adulthood (ranging from leaving home and entering full-time employment

to becoming a parent) may serve as potential sources of both continuity and discontinuity in relationship

qualities and in psychosocial functioning (Schulenberg et al., 2006).

Certain contextual transitions (e.g., becoming and remaining married in early adulthood) are expected

to reflect continuity in development if they grow out of prior positive relationship experiences (e.g., adolescent

friendship qualities) and predict similar future relational outcomes. This may occur in part because

individuals select similar relational contexts over time (Furman et al., 2002). Alternatively, contextual changes

are also expected to account for some discontinuities that reflect resilience. For example, desistance from

adolescent-era patterns of criminal behavior often follows entry into marriage, which in turn may reflect an

underlying capacity to form positive social relationships (Roisman et al., 2004a; Uggen & Massoglia, 2003).

Thus, even in the midst of behavior problems during adolescence, factors such as a developing capacity to

establish positive relationships may serve as an underlying source of future resilience (Kandel & Raveis,

1989; Masten et al., 2004). Conversely, relationship dissolution through divorce has been consistently

associated with increases in depression and life stress (Maciejewski et al., 2001; Whisman et al., 2006).

Divorce and/or high degrees of relationship instability may thus help explain increasing symptom trajectories

for individuals who were not particularly depressed in adolescence, but who were establishing unstable

relationship patterns that would ultimately create future risks for depressive symptoms.

Moderating effects of contextual factors also warrant consideration. For example, leaving home is

associated with a reduction in the predictive value of parent-teen relationship qualities (Aquilino, 1997). Still

other contextual factors may not serve as mediators or moderators, but are expected to simply increase our

ability to explain variance in key outcomes over and above predictions from adolescence. For example,

childbirth and the early years of parenting are associated with slight increases in distress and risk for

depression on the part of both parents; the physical separations of leaving home have been associated with

positive changes in relations to parents and reduced depression; and entry into marriage and full-time

employment predicts closer, less conflicted parent-offspring relationships (Aquilino, 1997; Dubas & Petersen,

1996; Mayseless, 1998; Ross et al., 1991).

Aim 3: Early Adult Adaptational Outcomes: Direct & Mediated Pathways from Adolescence

In our final Aim, we examine the ways in which the relational and intrapsychic processes identified in

the first two Aims ultimately lead to mental health and adaptational outcomes of consequence in early

adulthood. We examine three main classes of outcomes: functional autonomy, internalizing behaviors, and

externalizing behaviors. We account for past levels of these behaviors in analyses and we repeatedly assess

these outcomes in adulthood, recognizing that they are still unfolding during this period. We consider both

direct predictions from adolescence as well as ways in which both adult relationship qualities (Aim 1) and

internal states and contextual factors (Aim 2) may mediate observed predictions and carry continuities or help

explain meaningful discontinuities in functioning—recognizing that each type of pathway has significant

implications for prevention efforts. Given the nascent state of developmental theory regarding early

adulthood, we do not attempt to frame all predicted relations within a single overarching model. Instead, we

test carefully circumscribed models delineating what we hypothesize to be the most important and

theoretically-supported specific pathways from adolescence to adult functioning.

Hypotheses for Aim 3:

3.1: Developing Functional Autonomy will be predicted by verbal autonomy in adolescent-parent relationships

as mediated via ongoing support in both peer and parent relationships in adulthood.

3.2: Internalizing symptoms will be predicted by lack of supportive parent and peer relationships in

adolescence as mediated via attachment insecurity, rejection sensitivity, and adult social isolation.

3.3: Externalizing behaviors will be predicted by rejection and autonomy difficulties in parent and peer

relationships in adolescence, as mediated via rejection sensitivity and lack of supportive adult peer and

romantic relationships.

3.4 Gender effects will be observed for both internalizing and externalizing symptoms and will be partially

mediated via markers of relationship functioning; moderating effects are expected in several discrete areas.

Functional autonomy. Perhaps the single greatest developmental task of early adulthood is

establishing functional autonomy, as manifest in career development, financial self-sufficiency, and

residential independence. Our approach recognizes that struggles to develop such autonomy may take

many shapes ranging from heightened attention to education at the temporary expense of financial

independence, to early marriage and complete financial independence, to poverty and continued

dependence upon parents. We conceptualize functional autonomy broadly, considering both continuous

indicators of increasing competence in key domains as well as progress through specific key transitions of

early adulthood (e.g., taking on full-time career pursuits via employment or pursuit of advanced degrees;

residential independence; entry into long-term intimate partner relationships; etc.). Overall, there is evidence

that the sheer number of positive transitions toward functional autonomy is a reasonable marker of positive

adaptive outcomes (Schulenberg et al., 2005).

In early adulthood, parental relationships, when available, can span the gamut from serving as

unwavering sources of support for developing independence to anxiety-provoking sources of distress (Rossi &

Rossi, 1990; Umberson, 1992). Even aside from theoretical, clinical, and policy considerations, many parents

are eager (if not desperate) for guidance as to how to facilitate the continued development of their offspring

beyond adolescence. Studies with college students link parental relationship quality to career development

(Blustein et al., 1991; Ryan et al., 1996), and our own research on a clinical population finds links between

adolescent-parent interactions and later educational attainment (Bell et al., 1996). Unfortunately, the quality of

parental relationships as a predictor of independent functioning beyond the college years has received virtually

no attention in research to date.

Adult peer relationships can also be an important source of both information and social motivation

toward achieving self-sufficiency. In adolescence, we have identified strong socializing influences of peers,

though not always in desirable directions (Allen et al., 2005). In adulthood, at least one peer behavior—

formation of a stable, long-term romantic relationship—has been linked to significant moves toward functional

autonomy and desistance of antisocial behavior (Christensen, 2003; Giordano et al., 2004; Meeus et al., 2004;

Robbins, 1991; Sampson & Laub, 2005). Conversely, rejection by peers as early as age 9 has been found to

predict poor young adult career and educational outcomes for males up through age 23, even after controlling

for baseline academic skills (Nelson & Dishion, 2004).

We hypothesize that the development of early adult functional autonomy will be predicted by both

verbal autonomy in prior parent-teen relationships and adolescent experiences developing supportive peer

relationships, and that these predictions will be mediated via supportive peer and parent relationships in

adulthood.

Internalizing symptoms. Several lines of research suggest that adult internalizing symptoms are

likely to be predicted by adolescent relationship experiences. An extensive body of research within adulthood

links internalizing behaviors to problematic and stressful qualities of concurrent peer and parental relationships

(Amato, 1994; Amato & Sobolewski, 2001; Barnett et al., 1991; Davila, 2001a, 2001b; Davila et al., 2003;

Pearson et al., 1993). Within adolescence, social interaction patterns have been linked to depressive

symptoms, with a combination of withdrawal, anger and rejection predicting increases in depressive symptoms

over time (Allen et al., 2006b; Galambos et al., 2004; Harter & Whitesell, 1996; Nolan et al., 2003; Prinstein &

Aikins, 2004; Prinstein et al., 2005). One small, long-term study of 30 individuals predicted self-worth (an

inverse correlate of depression) at age 28 from problems in early adolescent peer relationships (Bagwell et al.,

1998; Bagwell et al., 2001). Beyond this one study, however, almost no research has examined whether adult

internalizing symptoms are linked to qualities of social relationships in adolescence.



Aggressive/Externalizing behaviors. Social relationships appear to play an important role in the

cessation of patterns of externalizing behavior in early adulthood. Given that this is a period during which

many antisocial behaviors decrease rapidly or desist entirely (Moffitt, 1993), it is noteworthy that romantic

relationship formation appears linked to these declines (Giordano et al., 2004; Meeus et al., 2004; Sampson

& Laub, 1993, 2005). Similarly, at least through age 23, positive peer relationships have been shown to play

an ameliorative role with respect to aggressive behavior (Capaldi et al., 2001; Lackey & Williams, 1995;

Williamson & Silverman, 2001). At the same time, association with deviant peers remains linked to

externalizing behavior in adulthood just as it is in adolescence (Shortt et al., 2003), and rejection by peers in

middle childhood has been found to predict male antisocial behavior through age 23 (Nelson & Dishion,

2004). Our expectation is that qualities of support in parent and non-romantic peer relationships in

adolescence will predict decreased rejection sensitivity and increased capacity to move successfully into

supportive (vs. hostile) peer and romantic relationships in adulthood which in turn will predict decreases in

externalizing behavior across this period. Similarly, just as social relationships appear linked to higher levels

of substance use for some groups in adolescence (Allen et al., 2005), by early adulthood, these relationships

may play a protective role, with factors such as marriage and the transition to full-time work coinciding with

decreasing levels of use (Schulenberg et al., 2005). This study will be well positioned to identify the

distinction between these short- vs. long-term predictions from adolescent social relationship qualities to

future levels of alcohol and substance use and related problems.

Gender and Adaptational Outcomes. Gender differences in early adult outcomes appear most

pronounced with respect to main effects on the incidence of major depression and antisocial behavior.

Females display a higher incidence of major depression and males display higher levels of antisocial

behaviors, although both effects diminish greatly under some conditions (e.g., if continuous measures of

depressive symptoms are used, or if milder forms of aggression in romantic relationships are examined)

(Angold et al., 2002; Compas et al., 1997; Kovacs, 1992; Moffitt et al., 2001).

Efforts to examine psychosocial mediators of gender differences have included a promising focus on

ruminative approaches to handling stress as helping to account for gender differences in depression (Nolen-

Hoeksema, 2001, 2006; Treynor et al., 2003). Anxious attachment models may create particular

susceptibility to ruminative approaches and have also been linked directly to depressive symptoms (Allen et

al., 1998; Birnbaum et al., 1997; Marsh et al., 2003; Mikulincer, 1995; Pistole, 1989). For aggressive

behavior, males‘ higher rates appear potentially linked to greater exposure to provocative situations

(Bettencourt & Miller, 1996), which may follow from patterns of difficulty handling autonomy negotiations.

Efforts to examine gender as a moderator of processes leading to negative outcomes have yielded

more conflicting results, although some areas of consensus are emerging. For both depressive and

externalizing symptoms, several multi-site studies and meta-analyses have found similarity across genders

(i.e., lack of moderation) for the vast majority of predictors of future functioning (Bettencourt & Miller, 1996;

Hyde, 1984; Hyde, 2005; Moffitt et al., 2001; Sternberg et al., 2006). In particular, the effects of contextual

transitions on functioning thus far appear similar for males and females (Schulenberg et al., 2005). Some

findings of apparent gender moderation (e.g., that females are more affected by romantic partners‘ criminal

behavior (Moffitt et al., 2001)) are contradicted by other studies that find the opposite (Capaldi et al., 2007).

Nonetheless, several discrete areas of potential gender moderating effects appear more consistently.

Females appear more susceptible to disruptions in everyday social interactions than males and may respond

with increases in depressive symptoms (Crawford et al., 2001; Davies & Lindsay, 2004; Leadbeater et al.,

1999; Taylor et al., 2000). For antisocial behavior, predictions for males appear to be strongest from

problems in work and legal areas, whereas for females such predictions may be stronger from lack of family

support and depression (Moffitt et al., 2001; Windle, 1992). Exploration into potential gender moderation in

other areas, such as romantic relationship behavior is just beginning. These moderating effects are modest

overall, in that effects for males and females are typically in the same direction but simply of different

magnitude; some have argued that these effects may even be decreasing over time (Hyde, 2005; Whisman &

Beach, 2001; Whisman et al., 2006).

With this study‘s proposed intensive assessment of both interpersonal and attachment processes, it

will be well situated to examine main effects of gender as well as psychosocial factors that mediate gender

effects. Although this study is not designed to conduct highly powered explorations of moderating effects of

gender, power will be sufficient to detect small-to-medium-sized or greater moderating effects that could

potentially alter interpretations of other observed relations and these will be consistently explored.

Other demographic covariates and moderators. For the majority of the predicted continuities in

this Aim, demographic factors other than gender display occasional main effects on outcomes of interest,

though only very inconsistent evidence of moderating effects. Family of origin socioeconomic status and

race/ethnicity display main effects, for example, for internalizing symptoms (Aneshensel & Sucoff, 1996;

Birnbaum et al., 1997; Elliot, 2001; Miech et al., 1999; Smith et al., 2006; Zimmerman et al., 2004),

educational attainment (McLoyd, 1998), and externalizing behaviors (Redding et al., 2005; Rutter et al., 1998;

Skinner et al., 1992). Given these findings, we assess each of these factors as potential covariates in all

analyses. Given broader theoretical interest in the possible moderating effects of social context (e.g., see

Quintana et al., 2006), we also test for such moderating effects, but we do not begin with a priori hypotheses

regarding such effects.

Conclusions

The proposed study is designed to break new scientific ground by: 1) bringing a large body of

adolescence research to fruition by establishing links from previously identified adolescent behaviors of

interest to ultimate success or failure in adult functioning up to 15 years later; and 2) developing a theoretical

model for understanding social functioning in the early adult years that places it in the context of prior

developmental experience. The specific framework utilized (i.e., intensive analysis of autonomy and

connection negotiations in adolescent relationships) is already informing intervention efforts in families and in

secondary schools (Allen et al., 1994c; Allen & Pianta, 2006; Cummings, 2006; Pianta & Allen, 2006). The

proposed study is designed to enhance this and related work by extending our understanding of adolescent

development to increase our understanding of its connections to future adult functioning.

Section C. Progress Report

To assure continuity in data collection and sample retention, this competing continuation proposal is

being submitted 3 ¾ years into the current 5-year funding period. In this time, we have met all major goals

from our most recent proposal. Data collection is ahead of schedule: We collected a planned 4 waves of

data in the first funding period, and we have virtually completed our 4th wave (of 5) of data collection in this

current period, and our 8th overall. We began with a sample of 184 eligible target adolescents and have

retained over 97% as active participants in the study to date. We also promptly code multiple types of

observed interactions with parents, with peers, and with romantic partners on an ongoing basis. As a result,

we are able to report on published data up through wave 6, and conference data and recent analyses

through wave 7 (our most recently completed wave of data collection).

Given that the affectively charged social situations of greatest interest in adolescence are those in

which self-reports are considered least likely to be consistently reliable (Nisbett & Wilson, 1977), our

assessment strategy emphasizes use of observational methods and multi-reporter strategies to allow us to

triangulate in on critical phenomena. We also recognize that even with careful measurement, social

experiences are less likely to be formative for future development if they are transient. We address this issue

by obtaining repeated measurements of our critical constructs, as outlined below. The result is a uniquely

detailed picture of our target participants‘ relationship experiences over the course of their adolescence.

We approach dissemination by focusing upon producing broad, high-impact, empirical papers in top-

tier journals (e.g., Child Development, Development & Psychopathology, Journal of Consulting & Clinical

Psychology, etc.). In the past 5 years, this grant has led to over 105 publications, presentations, or

dissertations. These include: the publication of 34 papers plus an additional 8 papers under review (Of these

42 papers, 34 are empirical.); one book (published by Harvard University Press); 6 doctoral theses; and 65

presentations at national conferences.

All relations that we report below are significant at least at the p .82) even down to small-to-medium

effect sizes (equivalent to  =.23). Even in the atypical case in which the sample would need to be split to

examine effects across different levels of a moderator variable (e.g., gender), power will be 85% for medium

effects (not tabled). Interactions are effects in a multiple regression and so the table above continues to

apply. Power should be adequate to detect small-to-medium sized and greater interactions (e.g., interactions

large enough to significantly alter the substantive interpretation of any main effects observed).

Power in multivariate models. Although assessment of statistical power within SEM, LGCM & HLM is

exceedingly complex and diverse approaches exist (Gerbing & Anderson, 1985; MacCallum et al., 1996;

Tanaka, 1987), Bentler (1989) suggests that acceptable parameters can be obtained with ratios of subjects to

estimated parameters of at least 5:1 (with 10:1 being a more conservative estimate), if using normal and

elliptical theory assumptions. For our sample, this leaves 17 to 34 free parameters that can be estimated in

any given model. Given the current state of the literature, we have intentionally designed this study not to test

comprehensive models of development, but rather to carefully and precisely examine a set of discrete

hypotheses about individual pathways between adolescent experience and adult outcomes. As a result, the

highly delimited questions addressed by this study fall within these guidelines. If SEM fails to produce

convergent or satisfactory models for some analyses, we will fall back to a multiple regression strategy,

addressing the same questions albeit from a somewhat less rich perspective. Moreover, these models can, if

necessary, be further simplified by fixing error terms for latent variables and parameters for loadings of

manifest variables onto latent variables across time. Demographic effects, where present, can be fixed

based on prior estimates from OLS regression analyses when these are not directly relevant to a hypothesis.

The discussion above is not meant to imply that we see ourselves as having carte blanche to pursue

these data with an LGC/SEM approach. Rather, it shows that our approaches are feasible for the type of

relatively simple, tightly specified models that we plan to use to test the main hypotheses of this study. We

recognize that power will always be constrained in research of this type, but we believe that our record of

working with this and other similar-sized data sets demonstrates that we can effectively utilize this sample to

glean tremendous knowledge about predictors of critical outcomes across a significant part of the lifespan.

Type I error rates. We fully recognize the danger of inflating Type I error rates in a study as rich and

intensive as we are proposing, and the need for care in interpreting results even after efforts are taken to

minimize the number of hypotheses tested. The plan outlined above is designed to reduce these concerns

by ultimately focusing all hypothesis testing on constructs derived from multiple measures, thus minimizing

the actual number of constructs and hypotheses to be examined, and increasing the care with which they can

each be assessed. Where multiple analytic methods are used, we will interpret findings only when a

consistent pattern of results emerges across methods. After testing the proposed hypotheses, it is of course

not only possible but desirable to fully utilize the richness of the obtained data to engage in secondary and

exploratory analyses to generate additional hypotheses. We expect ultimately to engage in this process, but

plan to keep it clearly distinct from our pursuit of the basic aims of this study.

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