Sonoma Wine Savings Make PS Make SB Sell PS
Year 1 $ 10,000.00 2446 3670 2446
Year 2 1 14462 6198 14462
Spend 1 $ 0.80 $ 0.70 $ 0.20
Spend 2 $ 0.75 $ 0.85 $ 0.17
Max PS1 1
Max PS2 1
Min PS1 1
Min PS2 1
Savings 1
Infusion 1
Spend Year 1 -1 $ 1.00 $ 0.83
Profit Year 1 $ 7.00
Cash Flow Year 1
Spend Year 2 -1 $ 0.92 $ 0.95
Profit Year 2 $ 7.33
Cash Flow Year 2
Savings $ 10,000.00
Net Loan $ -
Loan $ -
Interest Rate 0%
Total Loan Amount $ -
Discount Rate 8%
Grape Cost Uncertainty 0%
Grapes (Original) PS SB PS
Year 1 $ 0.80 $ 0.70 $ 0.80
Year 2 $ 0.75 $ 0.85 $ 0.75
Grapes (New) PS SB PS
Year 1 $ 0.80 $ 0.70 $ 0.80
Year 2 $ 0.75 $ 0.85 $ 0.75
Demand Rule of Thumb (bottles/$ spent) PS SB PS
Year 1 5.00 8.00 5.00
Year 2 6.00 10.00 6.00
Marketing per Bottle PS SB PS
Year 1 $ 0.20 $ 0.13 $ 0.20
Year 2 $ 0.17 $ 0.10 $ 0.17
Sale Price PS SB PS
Year 1 $ 8.00 $ 7.00 $ 8.00
Year 2 $ 8.25 $ 7.00 $ 8.25
Storage Per Bottle PS SB PS
Year 1 $ 0.10 $ 0.10 $ 0.10
Year 2 $ 0.10 $ 0.10 $ 0.10
Profit PS SB PS
Year 1 $ 7.00 $ 6.18 $ 6.90
Year 2 $ 7.33 $ 6.05 $ 7.23
Sell SB Have PS Have SB Store PS Store SB Total Production
3670 2446 3670 0 0 6116
6198 14462 6198 0 0 20660
Total
$ 0.13 $ 5,473.75 = 2446.4 40%
14462 >= 8264 40%
10000 = $ 10,000.00
1 = 1
$ (4,526.25) = $ -
$ 19,143.93 <= $ 39,784
$ 6.05 $ 132,919.04 Unconstrained
$ 153,559.36 Maximize
Contribution $ 143,558.36
SB
$ 0.70
$ 0.85
SB
$ 0.70
$ 0.85
SB
8.00
10.00
SB
$ 0.13
$ 0.10
SB
$ 7.00
$ 7.00
SB
$ 0.10
$ 0.10
SB
$ 6.08
$ 5.95
otal Production
Production Production Total
Year 1 Year 2 Production
Petite Syrah 3078 20873 23951
Savignon Blanc 3873 11050 14923
Total 6951 31923 38874
Grape Cost Uncertainty 59.00
Sale Price PS SB
Year 1 $ 8.00 $ 7.00
Year 2 $ 8.25 $ 7.00
Grapes (Original) PS SB
Year 1 $ 0.80 $ 0.70
Year 2 $ 0.75 $ 0.85
Grapes (New) PS SB
Year 1 $ 1.27 $ 1.11
Year 2 $ 1.19 $ 1.35
Demand Rule of Thumb (bottles/$ spent) PS SB
Year 1 5.00 8.00
Year 2 6.00 10.00
Marketing per Bottle PS SB
Year 1 $ 0.20 $ 0.13
Year 2 $ 0.17 $ 0.10
Storage Per Bottle PS SB
Year 1 $ 0.10 $ 0.10
Year 2 $ 0.10 $ 0.10
Profit PS SB
Year 1 $ 6.53 $ 5.76
Year 2 $ 6.89 $ 5.55
Total
Marketing Marketing Marketing
Revenue Year 1 Revenue Year 2 Total Revenue Expense Year 1 Expense Year 2 Expense
$ 24,624.00 $ 146,111.00 $ 170,735.00 $ 615.60 $ 2,609.13 $ 3,224.73
$ 31,952.25 $ 77,350.00 $ 109,302.25 $ 645.50 $ 1,105.00 $ 1,750.50
$ 56,576.25 $ 223,461.00 $ 280,037.25 $ 1,261.10 $ 3,714.13 $ 4,975.23
PS Sales Percentage
Year 1 44%
Year 2 65%
Make PS Make SB Make PS Make SB
2,446 3,670 3,162 4,743
14,462 6,198 25,784 11,050
Grape Expense Grape Expense Total Grape Contribution Contribution Total
Year 1 Year 2 Expense Year 1 Year 2 Contribution
$ 3,915.22 $ 23,231.65 $ 27,146.87 $ 20,093.18 $ 120,270.23 $ 140,363.41
$ 4,618.55 $ 14,934.08 $ 19,552.63 $ 26,688.20 $ 61,310.93 $ 87,999.12
$ 8,533.77 $ 38,165.72 $ 46,699.49 $ 46,781.38 $ 181,581.15 $ 228,362.53
Mean (Best Simulation) = 228362.532
Best Simulation) = 228362.5325