Embed
Email

Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis

Document Sample

Shared by: Alon Shwartz
Categories
Tags
Stats
views:
64
posted:
11/8/2011
language:
English
pages:
7
08/11/2011

08/11/2011

08:00 GMT



EUR/USD Daily Chart

Current price: 1.3748



“This [formation of unity government] is the best possible

EUR outcome”

- Wolfango Piccoli, analyst at Eurasia Group







Impact



Greek leaders reach a deal on formation of unity gov-

High

ernment



Greek leaders agreed to form a unity government with Lucas Pa-

pademos, a former deputy head of the European Central Bank, as a

possible prime minister to ensure outside financing and prevent a

breakdown of the nation’s economy.



“These are 'baby steps' that are good on the surface, but cannot

lead to a solution that avoids a default," said Bob Andres, chief in-

vestment officer at Merion Wealth Partners LLC. "I don't think it will

have a material impact on the final solution.”



“This is the best possible outcome,” said Wolfango Piccoli, analyst at 1 month 3 months 12 months

Eurasia Group. “However, the coalition government is likely to offer

only a temporary relief as the political leaders will soon get into elec- Trends*

tion mode.”

Min 1.32 1.32 1.25

Max 1.48 1.50 1.50

Mean 1.4156 1.4080 1.3811

St. deviation 0.0298 0.0519 0.0876

* the data is based on 35 international banks forecasts

08/11/2011

08:00 GMT



USD/JPY Daily Chart

Current price: 78.02



“The Federal Reserve should try to reduce the stubbornly

USD high U.S. unemployment rate”

- Eric Rosengren, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston







Impact



Rosengren: Fed should act to decrease unemployment

High

rate



President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Eric Rosengren,

said the central bank should take action to decrease “stubbornly, and

unacceptably, high” unemployment rate, which remains unchanged

near 9 percent since April 2009.



“Given the very weak labour market conditions and the low ex-

pected inflation rate, the Federal Reserve should in my view contin-

ue to take action to aggressively try to reduce the stubbornly high

U.S. unemployment rate,” Rosengren said on Monday. He expects

inflation to decrease below 2 percent “over the next several years.”

1 month 3 months 12 months

“The Federal Reserve has taken unprecedented actions to improve

the growth rate in the economy,” Rosengren said. “But economic Trends*

‘headwinds’ -- stemming from the previous financial crisis and con-

Min 75 77 80

cerns about possible future financial shocks -- have meant that de- Max 85 90 91.5

spite Federal Reserve actions, economic growth has been lethargic Mean 77.72 78.95 84.35

and job growth has been too slow to make significant inroads into St. deviation 1.5449 3.0990 4.3802

reducing the unemployment rate.” * the data is based on 35 international banks forecasts

08/11/2011

08:00 GMT



GBP/USD Daily Chart

Current price: 1.6040



“The housing market has proved highly resilient in recent

GBP months”

- Martin Ellis, an economist at Halifax







Impact



U.K. house prices advanced 1.2% in October High



U.K. house prices increased for the first month in three to an aver-

age of 163,311 pounds, said the Halifax Bank of Scotland on Mon-

day. Prices rose 1.2 percent in October, compared to September,

when they declined 0.3 percent.



“The housing market has proved highly resilient in recent months

despite the weak economic recovery and the deterioration in the

outlook for both the U.K. and global economies,” said Martin Ellis, an

economist at Halifax. “Both prices and activity levels are expected to

remain close to current levels over the coming few months.”



“Overall, housing-market conditions have been broadly unchanged 1 month 3 months 12 months

since the end of 2010,” Halifax said. The number of purchases has

been “largely static over this period.” Trends*

Min 1.57 1.50 1.42

Max 1.65 1.68 1.76

Mean 1.6203 1.6057 1.6037

St. deviation 0.0224 0.0457 0.0957

* the data is based on 35 international banks forecasts

08/11/2011

08:00 GMT



USD/CHF Daily Chart

Current price: 0.9030



“We believe the market’s strong bounce in October will

CHF prove to be more of a trick than a treat”

- Team of strategists at Morgan Stanley







Impact



Swiss stocks declined for a third consecutive day on

Medium

Monday



Swiss stocks declined on Monday amid concerns Italy is next to

suffer from the debt crisis as the country’s yields rose to record

highs. The Swiss blue-chip index SMI, a measure of the largest and

most actively traded companies, declined 0.25%, or 13.87 points, to

5,645.96. The broader Swiss Performance Index slid 0.20%, or 10.31

points, to 5,143.34.



“To use seasonal parlance, we believe the market’s strong bounce in

October will prove to be more of a trick than a treat,” said a team of

strategists at Morgan Stanley on Monday.

1 month 3 months 12 months

Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) is to announce its

economic expectations index next Thursday. Trends*

Min 0.74 0.80 0.77

Max 0.95 0.98 1.07

Mean 0.7972 0.8192 0.8923

St. deviation 0.0285 0.0383 0.0767

* the data is based on 35 international banks forecasts

08/11/2011

08:00 GMT



EUR/JPY Daily Chart

Current price: 107.27



“News out of Italy and Europe’s situation are weighing on

JPY stocks”

- Soichiro Monji, chief strategist at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd.







Impact



Japanese stocks extended losses on Monday Medium



Japanese stocks declined on Monday amid uncertainty over the new

government in Greece and rising yields in Italy. The Nikkei 225 lost

0.39%, or 34.31 points, to 8,767.09, while the broader Topix de-

creased 0.21%, or 1.57 points, to 750.45.



“There’s going to be some uncertainty of what the direction of the

unity government is,” said Tim Schroeders, fund manager at Pengana

Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. “It’s an opportunity to sit back and wait

for clarity in terms of how governments and investors are going to

approach the European situation.”



“Opposition is mounting in Italy against Prime Minister Berlusconi, 1 month 3 months 12 months

which is feeding concern that the nation can’t make much progress

on rebuilding its finances,” said Soichiro Monji, chief strategist at To- Trends*

kyo-based Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. “News out of Italy

Min 109 107 106

and Europe’s situation are weighing on stocks as well as bad earn- Max 120 128 132

ings.” Mean 110.30 114.74 116.13

St. deviation 2.8063 4.7848 6.2300

* the data is based on 35 international banks forecasts

08/11/2011

EXPLANATIONS 08:00 GMT





Chart



 SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods;

 SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods.



Max – the highest projection set by the industry sentiment



Mean – the average price based on the projections

of the industry sentiment





Min – the lowest projection set by the industry sentiment





Price projections





 Min – the lowest forecast among 35 international banks;

 Max – the highest forecast among 35 international banks;

 Mean – the average price based on the projections made by 35 international banks;

 St. Deviation – the standard deviation based on the forecasts made by 35 international banks.



Table terms



 Time – the exact time of the economic data release;

 Impact – the expected market impact caused by the economic events;

 Actual – the latest data officially announced by the relevant authority;

 Forecast – the consensus of the predictions made by polled economists and analysts;

 Previous – the previous actual data released.









Disclaimer

Everything in this article, including opinions and figures, is provided for informational purposes only and may not be interpreted as financial advice or solicitation of products. Dukascopy group

assume no responsibility for the completeness or the accuracy of any data contained in this article. Financial figures indicated in this article have not been verified by the Dukascopy group. Views,

opinions and analyses are those of the author of the article, and are not endorsed by the Dukascopy group.



Dukascopy group waive any and all warranties, express or implied, regarding, but without limitation to, warranties of the merchantability or the fitness for a particular purpose, with respect to all

information in this article. Dukascopy group shall under no circumstances be responsible for any direct, indirect, consequential, contingent or any other damages sustained in connection with the

use of this article.



Related docs
Other docs by Alon Shwartz
What Email Solution Is Right For You?
Views: 277  |  Downloads: 0
To Fire or Not to Fire? That is the Question
Views: 365  |  Downloads: 0
5 Tips to Keep Employees Engaged & Happy
Views: 924  |  Downloads: 0
Test
Views: 55  |  Downloads: 0
The President’s Kin
Views: 132  |  Downloads: 0
NATALIE WOOD
Views: 73  |  Downloads: 0
By registering with docstoc.com you agree to our
privacy policy

You are almost ready to download!

You are almost ready to download!