Docstoc

axisdirect-tv nov 2011

Document Sample
axisdirect-tv nov 2011 Powered By Docstoc
					                                                                                                                         November 2011
MONTHLY TECHNICAL VIEW
   SENSEX VIEW
After the strong up move from the low of 15745 Sensex reached a high of 17900, a rally of 2155 point.We have witnessed huge swings up and down
within the down sloping channel on weekly chart. Currently the Sensex is approaching the upper end (18240) of the channel, which is likely to act
as a stiff resistance area.
On the daily chart Sensex broke out of the two months consolidation range (15750 to 17350) with an upward gap of 320 points (17350 -17670).
The down gap area of 306 points (17664 -17358) created on 5th Aug.11 remained unfilled due to this rise.This gap-up action kept the two months
consolidation in isolation with a Breakaway Gap which would act as crucial support zone in the near term. Further the index made a high of 17908
around its 200 day SMA (18000) which remains a crucial resistance level and we may witness some profit booking action around those levels.
However, any corrective action is expected to fill the gap and Sensex is likely to get good support at 17350 which is the lower point of upward gap
area.                                                    SENSEX
Most of the Index stocks moved sharply and are now near to their major resistance area.We expect a consolidation in heavy weights; Midcap space
is expected to outperform during the month. Daily charts indicate that RSI, Stochastic are accelerating in up direction and gaining strength quoting
above 50 levels indicating that bullish sentiment may continue further. Short term momentum indicators like weekly RSI, Stochastics, and MACD
are in positive territory suggesting that market could exhibit positive momentum in short term.
We expect Sensex to remain in the range of 16300 - 18600 for the month of November. Sensex daily chart suggests that major supports are placed
near 17250 -16700. The level of 17850-18270 is likely to be a major supply zone. One should book part profits near the down sloping channel
resistance of 18240 and watch whether it pauses at the upper end of the channel or succeeds in making a bullish breakout.The preferred strategy
would be to buy bullish stocks on dips near major support levels and profit booking should be done on rallies near major resistance levels. Near
term and Short term trend continues to be bullish.

 CMP : 17705.01 (+7.60 %)                         Resistance : 17850-18270-18600                    Support : 17250-16700-16300




        Statistic:




                                                                          1
   S&P CNX NIFTY - Monthly View
Nifty took support again at 4720 level in the month of October and has shown appreciable recovery to close above 5200 mark. Nifty gained almost
600 points from the bottom and managed to cross its important moving average 100 dma (5235) and 50 dma (5032). Nifty has shown very strong
move in the last week of October and reached near its important moving average 200 dma (5410) level.
Nifty has broken out of the two months consolidation range (4720 to 5230) with an upward gap of 104 points (5219 -5322) and is expected to
hold on to this support level in the short term.
Nifty also managed to hold the important support level of 4720 on weekly chart on closing basis. On weekly chart, index has confirmed a Double
Bottom – bullish reversal pattern by closing above 5170 levels.This pattern is also called ‘W’ pattern.The projected target of the above said pattern
is the height of the formation which is 450 points giving a target of around 5600 levels. However weekly prices have inched towards 1 year down
sloping Trendline (intact since Nov10) resistance around 5460, which may act as a short term resistance for the Nifty.
                                                          SENSEX
Daily charts indicate that RSI, Stochastic are accelerating in up direction and gaining strength as they remain above 50 levels indicating that bullish
sentiment may continue further. Short term momentum indicators like weekly RSI, Stochastics, and MACD are in positive territory suggesting that
market could exhibit positive momentum in short term.
We expect Nifty to trade in the range of 4950-5600 levels in the month of November. Nifty chart pattern suggests that 5410-5500 would be
major supply zone for Nifty. Major dip or corrections in Nifty are expected to get good support at 5230-5170 level .Nifty Near term and Short
term trend continues to be bullish. The preferred strategy would be to buy bullish stocks on dips near major support levels and profit booking
should be done on rallies near major resistance levels

 CMP : 5326.60 (+7.76%)                            Resistance : 5410-5500-5600                        Support : 5230-5170-5050




         Statistic:




 Stock trend:

 The trend for Nifty 50 stocks are as given under:

 Bullish trend: ACC, Kotak Bank, Tata Motors, Cairn, IDFC, DRREDDY, Bajaj Auto, M&M, Heromotoco, Hind Unilever, ITC, Sunpharma,
 Ambuja Cement, JP Associates, Grasim, Wipro, ICICI Bank, NTPC, BHEL, Powergrid, INFOSYS, HDFC, DLF.
 Bearish trend: GAIL, MARUTI, Coal Ind, SESA GOA, Hindalco, BPCL, Sterlite Ind, L&T, Tata Power, SAIL.
 Sideways trend: Ranbaxy, SBI, Bharti Airtel, Jindal Steel, ONGC, PNB, Tata Steel, Cipla, HDFC Bank, HCL Tech, TCS, Reliance Ind.




                                                                           2
  Sector Analysis:
The following section contains our technical view on and analysis of trends in sectors for the month of
October 2011.


AUTO                 CMP : 9,477.19(+11.52%) Resistance : 9770-9930-10400                              Support : 9350-9150-9000

                                                                                    The BSE Auto index has outperformed the BSE Sensex. Index has

                                                    SENSEX                          given a Triangular pattern breakout indicating resumption of uptrend.
                                                                                    On the monthly chart, index gave the fastest recovery as it recouped
                                                                                    past 6 months down move. The projected target of the Triangular
                                                                                    patterns comes around 11200 to 11250 range.After a sharp rally from
                                                                                    8300 levels, short term oscillators have entered overbought zone
                                                                                    which may cause a possible short term correction. Weekly and
       Statistic:                                                                   monthly Relative Strength (RSI) and Stochastic indicators are placed
                                                                                    up with positive crossover supporting upside. Failure to hold support
                                                                                    of 7990-7920 would continue down trend. Important support levels
                                                                                    for the month are 9350 and 9150. Resistance levels are 9770 and
                                                                                    9930.
Bullish trend: Bajaj Auto, Heromotoco, Bosch, M&M, Tata Motors.
Bearish trend: Exide Ind, Escorts, Cummins Ind, Maruti.
Sideways trend: Ashok Leyland, MRF Tyres, Apollo Tyres, Amtek Auto, Bharat Forge.




BANKING          CMP : 11454.03 (+5.56%)              Resistance :11090-11450-11830 Support : 10370-10045-9690

                                                                                     The BSE Banking index has underperformed the BSE Sensex. Index
                                                    SENSEX                           moved up sharply by 1500 points from its recent low of 9889. This
                                                                                     rally is supported with RSI positive divergence indicating rising
                                                                                     strength. However, currently index is placed at 38.2% Fibonacci
                                                                                     resistance level-11445 of the downfall (13465-10196). A decisive
                                                                                     close above this would trigger a fresh upside rally. An appropriate
                                                                                     strategy is to create fresh long positions on breakout above 11450.
       Statistic:
                                                                                     Important support levels for the month are 10370 and 10045.
                                                                                     Important resistance levels are 11090 and 11450.




Bullish trend: IDFC, ICICI Bank, IDBI, Canara Bank, Axis Bank, HDFC, Indusind Bank, Kotak Bank, Federal Bank,
Yes Bank.
Bearish trend: Rel. Capital, Union Bank.
Sideways trend: BOB, ALBK, OBC, HDFC Bank, SBI, BOI, Karnataka Bank, PNB.




                                                                     3
CAPITAL            CMP :     10969.24 (+2.11%)           Resistance :      11100-11460-11660               Support :        10540-10350-9980


                                                                                       The BSE Capital goods index has underperformed the BSE Sensex
                                                     SENSEX                            with marginal gains of 2%. Index is in down trend on weekly and
                                                                                       monthly chart with lower Top –Bottom formation. Index formed a
                                                                                       new low with RSI positive divergence indicating strength at lower
                                                                                       levels. Currently index is trading near down sloping Trendline
                                                                                       resistance. Weekly close above 11330 would trigger a short term
                                                                                       pullback rally. An appropriate strategy would buy bullish stock above
       Statistic:
                                                                                       Trendline breakout of 11200. Important support levels for the month
                                                                                       are 10540 and 10350 while resistance exists at 11100 and 11460.




Bullish trend: Thermax, BHEL, Havells Ind.
Bearish trend: Walchand Nagar, Gammon India, BEML, Areva T&D, Usha Martin, ABB, AIA Engineering, EKC, Jyoti Struct, Lakshmi Mach., L&T,
Crompton Greaves.
Sideways trend: Siemens, Elecon Engg, Alstom Projects, Praj Ind, Bharat Elect,. Bharat Bijlee, SKF Ind., Kalpataru Power, Punj Lloyd.



CONS. DURABLE           CMP : 6594.87 (+3.67%)                Resistance : 6840-6995-7100                  Support : 6330-6115-6020


                                                                                       The BSE Consumer Durables index has underperformed
                                                      SENSEX                           the BSE Sensex. On weekly chart, index is consolidating in
                                                      SENSEX                           a Triangular pattern with lower High and higher Low,
                                                                                       indicating directionless trend. A weekly decisive close
                                                                                       below Trendline support of 6320 would trigger selling
                                                                                       pressure. Weekly RSI is placed flat around 50 mark
                                                                                       suggesting lackluster movement. However, on monthly
       Statistic:
                                                                                       chart it is still placed below reference line support
       Statistic:                                                                      signaling bearish sentiments.         Important support levels
                                                                                       for the month are 6330 and 6115. Important resistance
                                                                                       levels are 6840 and 6995.




Bullish trend: Rajesh Exports.
Bearish trend: Gitanjali Gems, Videocon Ind.
Sideways trend: Titan Ind.




                                                                       4
FMCG            CMP : 4196.59 (+7.32%)               Resistance : 4300-4440-4500                Support : 4050-3950-3750


                                                                                  The BSE FMCG index has performed at par with the BSE
                                                     SENSEX                       Sensex. Index is trending up across all the time frames and
                                                                                  trading near its all time high. On monthly chart, index is
                                                                                  following the up sloping channel since Apr.09. Weekly and
                                                                                  Monthly indicators are in positive territory indicating positive
                                                                                  sentiment. An appropriate strategy is to buy stock around
                                                                                  their major supports or on dips. Important support levels are
       Statistic:
                                                                                  4050 and 3950 while resistance levels are 4300 and 4440.




Bullish trend: ITC, Hind Unilever, Colgate Palmolive, Nestle.
Bearish trend: United Breweries.
Sideways trend: Godrej Consumer, Marico, Dabur, Tata Global.



HEALTHCARE            CMP : 6136.23 (+4.57%)                Resistance : 6330-6370-                  Support : 5940-5750-5680


                                                                                  The BSE Healthcare index has underperformed the BSE Sensex.With
                                                     SENSEX                       4% up move index bounced from lower end of the Triangular

                                                     SENSEX                       formation .A sustainable move above 6210 would continue further
                                                                                  upsides to test higher end of the pattern around 6370 levels.
                                                                                  However a move below previous month low of 5750, which also
                                                                                  coincides with lower end of the pattern, would result in breakdown.
                                                                                  Monthly RSI is still placed below its reference line indicating lack of
       Statistic:
                                                                                  strength. An appropriate strategy is to create long positions near
       Statistic:                                                                 support zone (5780) and exit near resistance zone (6400). Important
                                                                                  support levels for the month are 5940 and 5750. Important resistance
                                                                                  levels are 6330-and 6370.




Bullish trend: Lupin, Apollo Hospitals, Glenmark, Opto Circuits, IPCA Labs, SunPharma, DRREDDY, Divis Labs W
Bearish trend: Sterling Biotech, Dishman Pharma.
Sideways trend: Pfizer, Cipla, Biocon, Ranbaxy, Orchid Chem, Aurobindo Pharma, GlaxoSmithKline Pharma, Piramal Health.




                                                                    5
IT         CMP : 5828.26 (+10.48%)                 Resistance : 5920-6220-6450                     Support : 5590-5340-5080


                                                                                       The BSE IT index has outperformed the BSE Sensex. The index
                                                     SENSEX                            crossed the crucial 5300 level and tested the triangle breakdown level
                                                                                       of 5830 and briefly tested its 200 DMA at 5890.The pattern suggests
                                                                                       that if the index crosses and sustains above the crucial 5920 level, it
                                                                                       may test 6400-6450 levels in the near term.The weekly RSI has moved
                                                                                       above the 50 mark and is quoting above the reference line indicating
                                                                                       positive bias. The short term trend is positive. The appropriate
       Statistic:
                                                                                       strategy is to buy on dips and sell on rallies near important resistance
                                                                                       levels using the last few weeks range as a guideline for support and
                                                                                       resistance levels. Important support levels for the month are 5590
                                                                                       and 5340 while resistance levels are 5920 and 6220.




Bullish trend: Infosys, Patni, Aptech, Wipro.
Bearish trend: Moser Baer, Tech Mahindra, Mphasis, Rolta, Financial Tech.
Sideways trend: HCL Tech, Oracle Fin, TCS, NIIT.




METALS         CMP : 11904.10 (+8.26%)                Resistance : 12300-12880-13100                      Support : 10850-10250-9615


                                                                                       The BSE Metals index has outperformed the BSE Sensex. It made a
                                                      SENSEX                           low of 10300 and subsequently formed a hammer candlestick pattern

                                                      SENSEX                           on the weekly chart. The index witnessed buying momentum above
                                                                                       the hammer high of 10940. If the index crosses and sustains above
                                                                                       12300, it is likely to test the lower channel resistance placed at 12880-
                                                                                       13000. Weekly RSI has turned positive from the oversold zone and
                                                                                       has given a positive crossover to its reference line suggesting positive
       Statistic:
                                                                                       bias. The appropriate strategy is to sell on rallies near important
       Statistic:                                                                      resistance levels and buy on major declines near important support
                                                                                       levels for the month at 10850 and 10250 while resistance levels are
                                                                                       12300 and 12880.




Bullish trend: None.
Bearish trend: Ispat Inds, Sesa Goa, Welcorp, Hindalco, SAIL, Sterlite Ind, Gujarat NRE Coke.
Sideways trend: NMDC, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel, Nat Aluminum, Jindal Saw.




                                                                       6
OIL AND GAS CMP: 8987.52 (+5.80%)                       Resistance: : 9330-9570-9830                   Support : 8940-8665-8230

                                                                                     The BSE Oil and Gas index has marginally underperformed the BSE
                                                                                     Sensex.The index is moving in a downward channel pattern and took
                                                    SENSEX                           support from the lower end channel line support placed at 8090 and
                                                                                     rallied upwards to test the upper channel resistance level at 9300.The
                                                                                     weekly pattern suggests that if the index breaks above the upper
                                                                                     channel line placed at 9310 level it may test stiff resistance placed at
                                                                                     10035-10300. Failing this, it is likely to witness profit booking and the
       Statistic:                                                                    index may drift downwards towards the lower channel support
                                                                                     placed at 8000. Weekly RSI is trading above the crucial 50 mark and
                                                                                     above the reference line suggesting positive bias. The appropriate
                                                                                     strategy is to sell on rallies up to the upper channel resistance and buy
                                                                                     either on a breakout above the channel resistance or at major
                                                                                     support levels placed at 8940 and 8665. Important resistance levels
                                                                                     for the month are 9330 and 9570.

Bullish trend: Cairn.
Bearish trend: Essar Oil, GAIL, HPCL, BPCL, IOC.
Sideways trend: Aban, Reliance Ind, ONGC.




POWER         CMP : 2205.11 (+3.75%)                 Resistance: 2255-2350-2520                     Support: 2150-2090-1890
                                                                                     The BSE Power index has underperformed the BSE Sensex over the
                                                                                     last month. It has been consolidating in a small range of 150 points

                                                     SENSEX                          after a breakdown from the descending triangular formation at 2430.
                                                                                     The index filled a long term gap placed at 2255-2500 created on 22-
                                                     SENSEX
                                                                                     05-09. The index is facing supply pressure at every rise upto 2255
                                                                                     levels, the pattern suggests that if the index crosses and sustains
                                                                                     above 2255 it would likely test the lower triangle support placed at
                                                                                     2350 levels which also coincides with its 100 day SMA indicating stiff
       Statistic:                                                                    resistance. Weekly RSI has turned positive from the oversold zone
       Statistic:                                                                    and has given a positive crossover to its reference line indicating
                                                                                     positive bias.The index is also trading above its 50 day SMA placed at
                                                                                     2175 indicating positive momentum is likely to continue. An
                                                                                     appropriate strategy is to buy on declines near important support
                                                                                     levels and sell on rallies near the resistance levels placed at 2255 and
                                                                                     2350. Important Support levels are 2150 and 2090.
Bullish trend: NTPC, BHEL, Powergrid.
Bearish trend: ABB, Neyveli Lignite, Reliance Infra, GMR Infra, Lanco Infra, GVK Power, Tata Power.
Sideways trend: Siemens, Rpower, Suzlon, NHPC, Crompton Greaves.




                                                                      7
PSU      CMP : 7555.08 (+2.04%)                         Resistance : 7790-7900-8150                         Support : 16450-16040-15500

                                                                                      The BSE PSU index has underperformed the BSE Sensex. It made a
                                                                                      low of 7140 and subsequently formed a hammer candlestick pattern
                                                     SENSEX                           on the weekly chart which led to a small rally above the 50 day SMA
                                                                                      placed at 7550 level indicating bullish bias in the near term.The weekly
                                                                                      pattern suggests that if the index crosses and sustains above 7640 it
                                                                                      could witness buying momentum up to the 100 day SMA placed at
                                                                                      7900 and further up to lower triangle resistance placed at 8150 levels.
                                                                                      The weekly RSI has turned positive from the oversold zone and has
       Statistic:
                                                                                      given a crossover to its reference line suggesting positive bias. An
                                                                                      appropriate strategy is to buy on declines up to important support
                                                                                      levels and sell on rallies near the resistance levels at 7790-7900-8150.
                                                                                      Support levels are 7350 and 7090.



Bullish trend: BHEL, Powergrid, IDBI, Canara Bank, NTPC,Vijaya Bank.
Bearish trend: Coal Ind, Hind Copper, SAIL, MMTC, Central Bank, Corporation Bank, Andhra Bank, OBC, Dredging Corpn, CONCOR,
STC, Engineers Ind, MAHABANK, Shipping Corpn, Bharat Elect, MTNL, Neyveli Lignite, Chennai Petro, GAIL, BPCL, Union Bank, HPCL,
IOC.
Sideways trend: BOB, RCF, BOI, MRPL, Syndicate Bank, Dena Bank, PFC, ALBK, UCO Bank, PNB, REC, BEML, SBI, IOB, NMDC, Nat
Aluminum, ONGC, NHPC, J&K Bank, Indian Bank.


REALTY         CMP :    : 1919.68    (+8.89%)         Resistance : 1935-2085-2200                        Support : 1850-1720-1600

                                                                                      The BSE Realty index has marginally outperformed the BSE Sensex
                                                                                      over the last month. It made a monthly low of 1650 and subsequently
                                                     SENSEX
                                                                                      formed a hammer candlestick pattern on the weekly chart which led
                                                     SENSEX
                                                                                      to a small rally above its 50 DMA placed at 1780.The weekly pattern
                                                                                      suggests that if the index decisively breaks out and sustains above the
                                                                                      lower triangle resistance line placed at 1935, it is likely to see bullish
                                                                                      momentum up to 2100 levels. However, a failure to break the
       Statistic:                                                                     resistance would see the index correct back up to 1725 levels. The
       Statistic:                                                                     weekly RSI is trading above the crucial 50 mark and is also above its
                                                                                      reference line indicating positive bias.An appropriate strategy is to sell
                                                                                      on rallies near the resistance levels and buy near important support
                                                                                      levels at 1850 and 1720. Resistance levels are 1935 and 2085.



Bullish trend: DLF, Parsvanath, Omaxe.
Bearish trend: Sobha Dev, Peninsula Land, Mahindra Life, Anant Raj.
Sideways trend: HDIL, Unitech, Orbit Corp, Ansal Infra, IBREALEST, Phoenix Mills, Ackruti.




                                                                      8
   Monthly Technical Picks : November 2011

                               Buy range         Stop Loss   Target
                            SENSEX
A uto
M&M                              8 35-825          805        880
B an ki ng and Fi nance
HDFC                             6 80-690          660        740
Relian ce Capital                3 70-360          345        405
         Statistic:
M et al and M ini ng
Sail                             1 09-105          100        121
GMDC                             1 95-185          170        223




                            SENSEX
                            SENSEX




         Statistic:
         Statistic:




                                            10
Ms. Vaishnavi Jagtap              Analyst - Technical                         vaishnavi.jagtap@axissales.in              022-2425 2115




Disclaimer : The report and information contained herein is of confidential nature and meant only for the selected recipient and should
not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in any manner and form, to any other person or to the media or
reproduced in any form, without prior written approval of Axis Securities and Sales Limited (hereinafter referred to as 'ASSL'). The
material in this document/report is based on facts, figures and information that are consider true, correct, reliable and accurate but
ASSL does not guarantee or represent (expressly or impliedly) that the same are true, correct, reliable and accurate, not misleading or as
to its genuineness, fitness for the purpose intended and it should not be relied upon as such. The opinion expressed (including
estimates, facts, figures and forecasts) is given as of the date of this document is subject to change without providing any prior notice of
intimation. ASSL shall have the rights to make any kind of changes and alterations to this report/ information as may be required from
time to time. However, ASSL is under no compulsion to maintain or keep the data/information updated. The information appearing
herein is obtained from publicly available media or other sources believed to be reliable, but ASSL does not guarantee that it is complete
or accurate and it should not be relied on as such. This report/document does not mean an offer or solicitation for dealing (purchase or
sale) of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. ASSL or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not
be answerable or responsible in any way for any kind of loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any kind of error in the
information contained in this document or otherwise. This document is provided for assistance only and should not be construed as the
sole document to be relied upon for taking any kind of investment decision. The recipient is himself/herself fully responsible for the risks
of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make his/her own research, analysis and investigation as
he/she deems fit and reliable to come at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies mentioned in this
document (including the merits, demerits and risks involved), and should further take opinion of own consultants, advisors to
determine the advantages and risks of such investment. The investment discussed or views expressed herein may not suit the
requirements for all investors. ASSL and its group companies, affiliates, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long
or short positions in, and deal (buy and/or sell the securities) thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other
transaction involving such securities and earn commission/brokerage or other compensation or act as advisor or lender/borrower to
such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and
opinions. The applicable Statutory Rules and Regulations may not allow the distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions, and
persons who are in possession of this document, should inform themselves about and follow, any such restrictions. This report is not
meant, directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality,
state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would not be in conformation to the law,
regulation or which would require ASSL and affiliates/ group companies to obtain any registration or licensing requirements within such
jurisdiction. Neither ASSL nor any of its affiliates, group companies, directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be held
responsible, liable for any kind of consequential damages whether direct, indirect, special or consequential including but not limited to
lost revenue, lost profits, notional losses that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Prospective investors and
others are cautioned and should be alert that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change
without providing any notice. Past performance should not be considered as a reference to future performance..The disclosures of
interest statements if any included in this document are provided only to enhance the transparency and should not be construed as
confirmation of the views expressed in the report. The views expressed in this report reflect the personal views of the author of the
report and do not reflect the views of ASSL or any of it's associate and group companies about the subject company or companies and
its or their securities. “Neither Axis Securities & Sales Limited nor the author of this report nor his/her dependent family members have
any interest or long or short position in the securities discussed in this report.”




                                                                      11

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:4
posted:11/8/2011
language:English
pages:10