MONTHLY TECHNICAL VIEW
After the strong up move from the low of 15745 Sensex reached a high of 17900, a rally of 2155 point.We have witnessed huge swings up and down
within the down sloping channel on weekly chart. Currently the Sensex is approaching the upper end (18240) of the channel, which is likely to act
as a stiff resistance area.
On the daily chart Sensex broke out of the two months consolidation range (15750 to 17350) with an upward gap of 320 points (17350 -17670).
The down gap area of 306 points (17664 -17358) created on 5th Aug.11 remained unfilled due to this rise.This gap-up action kept the two months
consolidation in isolation with a Breakaway Gap which would act as crucial support zone in the near term. Further the index made a high of 17908
around its 200 day SMA (18000) which remains a crucial resistance level and we may witness some profit booking action around those levels.
However, any corrective action is expected to fill the gap and Sensex is likely to get good support at 17350 which is the lower point of upward gap
Most of the Index stocks moved sharply and are now near to their major resistance area.We expect a consolidation in heavy weights; Midcap space
is expected to outperform during the month. Daily charts indicate that RSI, Stochastic are accelerating in up direction and gaining strength quoting
above 50 levels indicating that bullish sentiment may continue further. Short term momentum indicators like weekly RSI, Stochastics, and MACD
are in positive territory suggesting that market could exhibit positive momentum in short term.
We expect Sensex to remain in the range of 16300 - 18600 for the month of November. Sensex daily chart suggests that major supports are placed
near 17250 -16700. The level of 17850-18270 is likely to be a major supply zone. One should book part profits near the down sloping channel
resistance of 18240 and watch whether it pauses at the upper end of the channel or succeeds in making a bullish breakout.The preferred strategy
would be to buy bullish stocks on dips near major support levels and profit booking should be done on rallies near major resistance levels. Near
term and Short term trend continues to be bullish.
CMP : 17705.01 (+7.60 %) Resistance : 17850-18270-18600 Support : 17250-16700-16300
S&P CNX NIFTY - Monthly View
Nifty took support again at 4720 level in the month of October and has shown appreciable recovery to close above 5200 mark. Nifty gained almost
600 points from the bottom and managed to cross its important moving average 100 dma (5235) and 50 dma (5032). Nifty has shown very strong
move in the last week of October and reached near its important moving average 200 dma (5410) level.
Nifty has broken out of the two months consolidation range (4720 to 5230) with an upward gap of 104 points (5219 -5322) and is expected to
hold on to this support level in the short term.
Nifty also managed to hold the important support level of 4720 on weekly chart on closing basis. On weekly chart, index has confirmed a Double
Bottom – bullish reversal pattern by closing above 5170 levels.This pattern is also called ‘W’ pattern.The projected target of the above said pattern
is the height of the formation which is 450 points giving a target of around 5600 levels. However weekly prices have inched towards 1 year down
sloping Trendline (intact since Nov10) resistance around 5460, which may act as a short term resistance for the Nifty.
Daily charts indicate that RSI, Stochastic are accelerating in up direction and gaining strength as they remain above 50 levels indicating that bullish
sentiment may continue further. Short term momentum indicators like weekly RSI, Stochastics, and MACD are in positive territory suggesting that
market could exhibit positive momentum in short term.
We expect Nifty to trade in the range of 4950-5600 levels in the month of November. Nifty chart pattern suggests that 5410-5500 would be
major supply zone for Nifty. Major dip or corrections in Nifty are expected to get good support at 5230-5170 level .Nifty Near term and Short
term trend continues to be bullish. The preferred strategy would be to buy bullish stocks on dips near major support levels and profit booking
should be done on rallies near major resistance levels
CMP : 5326.60 (+7.76%) Resistance : 5410-5500-5600 Support : 5230-5170-5050
The trend for Nifty 50 stocks are as given under:
Bullish trend: ACC, Kotak Bank, Tata Motors, Cairn, IDFC, DRREDDY, Bajaj Auto, M&M, Heromotoco, Hind Unilever, ITC, Sunpharma,
Ambuja Cement, JP Associates, Grasim, Wipro, ICICI Bank, NTPC, BHEL, Powergrid, INFOSYS, HDFC, DLF.
Bearish trend: GAIL, MARUTI, Coal Ind, SESA GOA, Hindalco, BPCL, Sterlite Ind, L&T, Tata Power, SAIL.
Sideways trend: Ranbaxy, SBI, Bharti Airtel, Jindal Steel, ONGC, PNB, Tata Steel, Cipla, HDFC Bank, HCL Tech, TCS, Reliance Ind.
The following section contains our technical view on and analysis of trends in sectors for the month of
AUTO CMP : 9,477.19(+11.52%) Resistance : 9770-9930-10400 Support : 9350-9150-9000
The BSE Auto index has outperformed the BSE Sensex. Index has
SENSEX given a Triangular pattern breakout indicating resumption of uptrend.
On the monthly chart, index gave the fastest recovery as it recouped
past 6 months down move. The projected target of the Triangular
patterns comes around 11200 to 11250 range.After a sharp rally from
8300 levels, short term oscillators have entered overbought zone
which may cause a possible short term correction. Weekly and
Statistic: monthly Relative Strength (RSI) and Stochastic indicators are placed
up with positive crossover supporting upside. Failure to hold support
of 7990-7920 would continue down trend. Important support levels
for the month are 9350 and 9150. Resistance levels are 9770 and
Bullish trend: Bajaj Auto, Heromotoco, Bosch, M&M, Tata Motors.
Bearish trend: Exide Ind, Escorts, Cummins Ind, Maruti.
Sideways trend: Ashok Leyland, MRF Tyres, Apollo Tyres, Amtek Auto, Bharat Forge.
BANKING CMP : 11454.03 (+5.56%) Resistance :11090-11450-11830 Support : 10370-10045-9690
The BSE Banking index has underperformed the BSE Sensex. Index
SENSEX moved up sharply by 1500 points from its recent low of 9889. This
rally is supported with RSI positive divergence indicating rising
strength. However, currently index is placed at 38.2% Fibonacci
resistance level-11445 of the downfall (13465-10196). A decisive
close above this would trigger a fresh upside rally. An appropriate
strategy is to create fresh long positions on breakout above 11450.
Important support levels for the month are 10370 and 10045.
Important resistance levels are 11090 and 11450.
Bullish trend: IDFC, ICICI Bank, IDBI, Canara Bank, Axis Bank, HDFC, Indusind Bank, Kotak Bank, Federal Bank,
Bearish trend: Rel. Capital, Union Bank.
Sideways trend: BOB, ALBK, OBC, HDFC Bank, SBI, BOI, Karnataka Bank, PNB.
CAPITAL CMP : 10969.24 (+2.11%) Resistance : 11100-11460-11660 Support : 10540-10350-9980
The BSE Capital goods index has underperformed the BSE Sensex
SENSEX with marginal gains of 2%. Index is in down trend on weekly and
monthly chart with lower Top –Bottom formation. Index formed a
new low with RSI positive divergence indicating strength at lower
levels. Currently index is trading near down sloping Trendline
resistance. Weekly close above 11330 would trigger a short term
pullback rally. An appropriate strategy would buy bullish stock above
Trendline breakout of 11200. Important support levels for the month
are 10540 and 10350 while resistance exists at 11100 and 11460.
Bullish trend: Thermax, BHEL, Havells Ind.
Bearish trend: Walchand Nagar, Gammon India, BEML, Areva T&D, Usha Martin, ABB, AIA Engineering, EKC, Jyoti Struct, Lakshmi Mach., L&T,
Sideways trend: Siemens, Elecon Engg, Alstom Projects, Praj Ind, Bharat Elect,. Bharat Bijlee, SKF Ind., Kalpataru Power, Punj Lloyd.
CONS. DURABLE CMP : 6594.87 (+3.67%) Resistance : 6840-6995-7100 Support : 6330-6115-6020
The BSE Consumer Durables index has underperformed
SENSEX the BSE Sensex. On weekly chart, index is consolidating in
SENSEX a Triangular pattern with lower High and higher Low,
indicating directionless trend. A weekly decisive close
below Trendline support of 6320 would trigger selling
pressure. Weekly RSI is placed flat around 50 mark
suggesting lackluster movement. However, on monthly
chart it is still placed below reference line support
Statistic: signaling bearish sentiments. Important support levels
for the month are 6330 and 6115. Important resistance
levels are 6840 and 6995.
Bullish trend: Rajesh Exports.
Bearish trend: Gitanjali Gems, Videocon Ind.
Sideways trend: Titan Ind.
FMCG CMP : 4196.59 (+7.32%) Resistance : 4300-4440-4500 Support : 4050-3950-3750
The BSE FMCG index has performed at par with the BSE
SENSEX Sensex. Index is trending up across all the time frames and
trading near its all time high. On monthly chart, index is
following the up sloping channel since Apr.09. Weekly and
Monthly indicators are in positive territory indicating positive
sentiment. An appropriate strategy is to buy stock around
their major supports or on dips. Important support levels are
4050 and 3950 while resistance levels are 4300 and 4440.
Bullish trend: ITC, Hind Unilever, Colgate Palmolive, Nestle.
Bearish trend: United Breweries.
Sideways trend: Godrej Consumer, Marico, Dabur, Tata Global.
HEALTHCARE CMP : 6136.23 (+4.57%) Resistance : 6330-6370- Support : 5940-5750-5680
The BSE Healthcare index has underperformed the BSE Sensex.With
SENSEX 4% up move index bounced from lower end of the Triangular
SENSEX formation .A sustainable move above 6210 would continue further
upsides to test higher end of the pattern around 6370 levels.
However a move below previous month low of 5750, which also
coincides with lower end of the pattern, would result in breakdown.
Monthly RSI is still placed below its reference line indicating lack of
strength. An appropriate strategy is to create long positions near
Statistic: support zone (5780) and exit near resistance zone (6400). Important
support levels for the month are 5940 and 5750. Important resistance
levels are 6330-and 6370.
Bullish trend: Lupin, Apollo Hospitals, Glenmark, Opto Circuits, IPCA Labs, SunPharma, DRREDDY, Divis Labs W
Bearish trend: Sterling Biotech, Dishman Pharma.
Sideways trend: Pfizer, Cipla, Biocon, Ranbaxy, Orchid Chem, Aurobindo Pharma, GlaxoSmithKline Pharma, Piramal Health.
IT CMP : 5828.26 (+10.48%) Resistance : 5920-6220-6450 Support : 5590-5340-5080
The BSE IT index has outperformed the BSE Sensex. The index
SENSEX crossed the crucial 5300 level and tested the triangle breakdown level
of 5830 and briefly tested its 200 DMA at 5890.The pattern suggests
that if the index crosses and sustains above the crucial 5920 level, it
may test 6400-6450 levels in the near term.The weekly RSI has moved
above the 50 mark and is quoting above the reference line indicating
positive bias. The short term trend is positive. The appropriate
strategy is to buy on dips and sell on rallies near important resistance
levels using the last few weeks range as a guideline for support and
resistance levels. Important support levels for the month are 5590
and 5340 while resistance levels are 5920 and 6220.
Bullish trend: Infosys, Patni, Aptech, Wipro.
Bearish trend: Moser Baer, Tech Mahindra, Mphasis, Rolta, Financial Tech.
Sideways trend: HCL Tech, Oracle Fin, TCS, NIIT.
METALS CMP : 11904.10 (+8.26%) Resistance : 12300-12880-13100 Support : 10850-10250-9615
The BSE Metals index has outperformed the BSE Sensex. It made a
SENSEX low of 10300 and subsequently formed a hammer candlestick pattern
SENSEX on the weekly chart. The index witnessed buying momentum above
the hammer high of 10940. If the index crosses and sustains above
12300, it is likely to test the lower channel resistance placed at 12880-
13000. Weekly RSI has turned positive from the oversold zone and
has given a positive crossover to its reference line suggesting positive
bias. The appropriate strategy is to sell on rallies near important
Statistic: resistance levels and buy on major declines near important support
levels for the month at 10850 and 10250 while resistance levels are
12300 and 12880.
Bullish trend: None.
Bearish trend: Ispat Inds, Sesa Goa, Welcorp, Hindalco, SAIL, Sterlite Ind, Gujarat NRE Coke.
Sideways trend: NMDC, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel, Nat Aluminum, Jindal Saw.
OIL AND GAS CMP: 8987.52 (+5.80%) Resistance: : 9330-9570-9830 Support : 8940-8665-8230
The BSE Oil and Gas index has marginally underperformed the BSE
Sensex.The index is moving in a downward channel pattern and took
SENSEX support from the lower end channel line support placed at 8090 and
rallied upwards to test the upper channel resistance level at 9300.The
weekly pattern suggests that if the index breaks above the upper
channel line placed at 9310 level it may test stiff resistance placed at
10035-10300. Failing this, it is likely to witness profit booking and the
Statistic: index may drift downwards towards the lower channel support
placed at 8000. Weekly RSI is trading above the crucial 50 mark and
above the reference line suggesting positive bias. The appropriate
strategy is to sell on rallies up to the upper channel resistance and buy
either on a breakout above the channel resistance or at major
support levels placed at 8940 and 8665. Important resistance levels
for the month are 9330 and 9570.
Bullish trend: Cairn.
Bearish trend: Essar Oil, GAIL, HPCL, BPCL, IOC.
Sideways trend: Aban, Reliance Ind, ONGC.
POWER CMP : 2205.11 (+3.75%) Resistance: 2255-2350-2520 Support: 2150-2090-1890
The BSE Power index has underperformed the BSE Sensex over the
last month. It has been consolidating in a small range of 150 points
SENSEX after a breakdown from the descending triangular formation at 2430.
The index filled a long term gap placed at 2255-2500 created on 22-
05-09. The index is facing supply pressure at every rise upto 2255
levels, the pattern suggests that if the index crosses and sustains
above 2255 it would likely test the lower triangle support placed at
2350 levels which also coincides with its 100 day SMA indicating stiff
Statistic: resistance. Weekly RSI has turned positive from the oversold zone
Statistic: and has given a positive crossover to its reference line indicating
positive bias.The index is also trading above its 50 day SMA placed at
2175 indicating positive momentum is likely to continue. An
appropriate strategy is to buy on declines near important support
levels and sell on rallies near the resistance levels placed at 2255 and
2350. Important Support levels are 2150 and 2090.
Bullish trend: NTPC, BHEL, Powergrid.
Bearish trend: ABB, Neyveli Lignite, Reliance Infra, GMR Infra, Lanco Infra, GVK Power, Tata Power.
Sideways trend: Siemens, Rpower, Suzlon, NHPC, Crompton Greaves.
PSU CMP : 7555.08 (+2.04%) Resistance : 7790-7900-8150 Support : 16450-16040-15500
The BSE PSU index has underperformed the BSE Sensex. It made a
low of 7140 and subsequently formed a hammer candlestick pattern
SENSEX on the weekly chart which led to a small rally above the 50 day SMA
placed at 7550 level indicating bullish bias in the near term.The weekly
pattern suggests that if the index crosses and sustains above 7640 it
could witness buying momentum up to the 100 day SMA placed at
7900 and further up to lower triangle resistance placed at 8150 levels.
The weekly RSI has turned positive from the oversold zone and has
given a crossover to its reference line suggesting positive bias. An
appropriate strategy is to buy on declines up to important support
levels and sell on rallies near the resistance levels at 7790-7900-8150.
Support levels are 7350 and 7090.
Bullish trend: BHEL, Powergrid, IDBI, Canara Bank, NTPC,Vijaya Bank.
Bearish trend: Coal Ind, Hind Copper, SAIL, MMTC, Central Bank, Corporation Bank, Andhra Bank, OBC, Dredging Corpn, CONCOR,
STC, Engineers Ind, MAHABANK, Shipping Corpn, Bharat Elect, MTNL, Neyveli Lignite, Chennai Petro, GAIL, BPCL, Union Bank, HPCL,
Sideways trend: BOB, RCF, BOI, MRPL, Syndicate Bank, Dena Bank, PFC, ALBK, UCO Bank, PNB, REC, BEML, SBI, IOB, NMDC, Nat
Aluminum, ONGC, NHPC, J&K Bank, Indian Bank.
REALTY CMP : : 1919.68 (+8.89%) Resistance : 1935-2085-2200 Support : 1850-1720-1600
The BSE Realty index has marginally outperformed the BSE Sensex
over the last month. It made a monthly low of 1650 and subsequently
formed a hammer candlestick pattern on the weekly chart which led
to a small rally above its 50 DMA placed at 1780.The weekly pattern
suggests that if the index decisively breaks out and sustains above the
lower triangle resistance line placed at 1935, it is likely to see bullish
momentum up to 2100 levels. However, a failure to break the
Statistic: resistance would see the index correct back up to 1725 levels. The
Statistic: weekly RSI is trading above the crucial 50 mark and is also above its
reference line indicating positive bias.An appropriate strategy is to sell
on rallies near the resistance levels and buy near important support
levels at 1850 and 1720. Resistance levels are 1935 and 2085.
Bullish trend: DLF, Parsvanath, Omaxe.
Bearish trend: Sobha Dev, Peninsula Land, Mahindra Life, Anant Raj.
Sideways trend: HDIL, Unitech, Orbit Corp, Ansal Infra, IBREALEST, Phoenix Mills, Ackruti.
Monthly Technical Picks : November 2011
Buy range Stop Loss Target
M&M 8 35-825 805 880
B an ki ng and Fi nance
HDFC 6 80-690 660 740
Relian ce Capital 3 70-360 345 405
M et al and M ini ng
Sail 1 09-105 100 121
GMDC 1 95-185 170 223
Ms. Vaishnavi Jagtap Analyst - Technical firstname.lastname@example.org 022-2425 2115
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