Australasia Beverage Forecasts September

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Australasia Beverage Forecasts September Powered By Docstoc
					Global Beverage Forecasts
2011 Cycle

Australasia

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Australasia
Contents & Notes
Please note that these forecasts were produced in September 2011 and supersede all previous forecasts.
They may differ from forecasts previously published in our Soft Drinks and Beer Market Insights reports and
Quarterly Beverage Tracker (QBT).


Data Horizon: 1999-2010 ACTUAL and 2011F-2016F (forecast)

Measures: Volume (million litres), Population (millions), Litres Per Capita

Geographic Coverage
AUSTRALASIA: Australia, New Zealand, Other Austalasia

Regional Balancers
For regions where it has not been possible to generate total market volumes by profiling each
individual country, we have taken a value judgement to arrive at a balancing “Others” figure.
This is recorded as a separate entity, specific to the Region to which it belongs



Product Coverage
Main beverage category groups: Soft (standard), Soft (extended), Beer, Spirits (standard),
Spirits (extended) and Wines.
Individual beverage categories within each main group are as follows:
Soft (standard): Packaged Water, Carbonates, Juice (100% pure juice), Nectars (products
with a 25-99% juice content), Still Drinks (<25% juice content), Squash/Syrups, Fruit Powders,
Iced/Ready To Drink (RTD) Tea, Iced/Ready To Drink (RTD) Coffee, Sports Drinks,
Energy Drinks. Packaged Water excludes all water sold in large containers of >10 litres
Soft (extended): Bulk/HOD Water, White Milk, Flavoured Milk, Soymilk, Drinking Yogurt and
Fermented Milk, Hot Coffee, Hot Tea
Beer: Beer, Sorghum Beer and Cider
Spirits (standard): Spirits (excludes Fortified Wine and Flavoured Alcoholic Beverages (FABs))
Spirits (extended): Flavoured Alcoholic Beverages (FABs), Fortified Wine, Rice Wine and Sake
Wines: Wine (Still and Sparkling combined)
Data extracted from Canadean Ltd's Global Beverage Forecasts Wisdom database
All data is owned by Canadean Ltd and may not be passed to a third party without written consent from Canadean Ltd

Australasia
                                                                          1999            2000            2001           2002       2003       2004       2005       2006       2007       2008       2009       2010     2011F      2012F      2013F      2014F      2015F      2016F
Volume (Millions Litres)
All Categories              Total                                     14,537.5        14,667.2        15,055.4       15,286.3   15,479.8   15,690.9   16,032.7   16,391.2   16,818.0   16,870.7   17,297.6   17,556.9   17,790.2   18,007.5   18,224.0   18,445.6   18,675.2   18,912.3
All Soft                    Total                                     11,698.2        11,810.0        12,138.3       12,305.4   12,449.3   12,592.0   12,866.6   13,170.1   13,527.7   13,633.2   14,006.6   14,221.3   14,433.3   14,624.0   14,816.0   15,013.8   15,218.2   15,428.6
Soft (Standard)             Total                                      4,486.4         4,563.4         4,706.5        4,827.0    4,894.8    5,021.5    5,091.9    5,207.6    5,281.2    5,252.9    5,431.7    5,483.3    5,529.8    5,571.3    5,610.9    5,653.2    5,698.7    5,746.1
                            Packaged Water                               289.7           341.5           399.6          440.2      479.5      524.5      571.3      622.8      668.3      685.6      674.2      682.6      696.5      710.8      725.4      740.3      755.9      771.6
                            Carbonates                                 2,576.7         2,572.1         2,611.7        2,649.1    2,654.2    2,665.0    2,670.0    2,688.2    2,705.8    2,652.8    2,766.3    2,762.6    2,758.6    2,752.5    2,746.4    2,740.4    2,734.6    2,728.4
                            Juice                                        472.0           498.3           536.5          558.7      589.0      628.3      638.6      654.8      634.7      619.5      627.3      623.1      622.0      622.2      622.5      622.8      623.2      623.5
                            Nectars                                      204.7           219.8           220.7          216.3      208.2      215.0      199.3      197.2      195.2      191.7      209.2      209.7      210.4      210.8      211.4      212.0      212.6      213.2
                            Still Drinks                                  33.3            39.4            47.6           59.5       75.8       89.6       97.3       98.5      101.1      115.5      119.9      121.5      122.4      124.6      126.8      129.1      131.3      133.3
                            Squash/Syrups                                681.1           645.0           634.9          627.4      589.8      569.9      559.7      552.0      542.0      534.6      540.4      542.1      545.9      543.5      541.0      538.6      536.2      533.8
                            Fruit Powders                                 62.4            62.3            62.1           62.0       61.7       65.1       62.3       60.9       60.4       59.8       62.2       62.9       63.1       63.0       63.0       63.0       63.0       63.0
                            Iced/RTD Tea Drinks                            7.7             9.2            11.5           13.6       17.2       22.6       28.8       34.9       43.7       50.2       59.7       66.7       73.7       81.4       89.7       98.9      109.2      120.5
                            Iced/RTD Coffee Drinks                        71.9            73.7            75.7           82.3       89.8       93.4       97.4      103.5      109.0      105.7      109.5      113.9      118.4      122.6      126.8      131.0      135.2      139.4
                            Sports Drinks                                 66.7            73.9            70.8           77.6       84.7       93.9      100.7      118.1      128.5      127.9      127.3      132.3      136.8      140.6      144.6      148.8      153.1      157.5
                            Energy Drinks                                 20.3            28.2            35.3           40.3       44.8       54.4       66.5       76.7       92.5      109.5      135.7      166.0      182.0      199.3      213.3      228.4      244.5      261.9
Soft (Extended)             Total                                      7,211.8         7,246.6         7,431.8        7,478.4    7,554.5    7,570.5    7,774.7    7,962.5    8,246.4    8,380.3    8,575.0    8,738.0    8,903.5    9,052.7    9,205.1    9,360.6    9,519.5    9,682.5
                            Bulk/HOD Water                               192.2           217.0           241.3          242.1      255.4      271.1      289.8      297.5      305.2      307.0      311.6      307.3      315.5      324.0      333.5      343.7      354.7      366.7
                            White Milk                                 2,253.6         2,237.9         2,231.2        2,234.9    2,259.8    2,293.5    2,337.3    2,401.2    2,459.9    2,509.3    2,548.4    2,567.9    2,617.9    2,657.1    2,696.9    2,737.5    2,778.7    2,820.6
                            Flavoured Milk                               140.3           134.1           135.2          135.1      145.6      152.4      152.9      159.9      167.5      162.4      161.7      164.1      166.8      173.1      179.7      186.6      193.8      201.2
                            Drinking Yogurt                                6.6             6.6             7.3            7.5        8.3        8.8        8.6        8.4        8.9        9.4        9.8       10.0       10.3       10.5       10.7       10.9       11.1       11.3
                            Fermented Milk                                 2.6             2.6             2.6            2.7        2.7        2.9        2.9        3.2        3.2        3.2        3.3        3.3        3.3        3.3        3.4        3.4        3.4        3.4
                            Soymilk                                       76.0            73.1            65.8           66.0       67.5       69.8       71.9       73.7       68.4       68.7       79.9       82.0       83.3       84.8       86.4       88.0       89.7       91.3
                            Hot Coffee                                 2,401.5         2,407.3         2,577.4        2,605.2    2,628.9    2,573.6    2,681.6    2,762.2    2,939.9    2,990.0    3,052.0    3,103.6    3,145.0    3,184.9    3,225.5    3,266.8    3,308.7    3,351.1
                            Hot Tea                                    2,139.1         2,167.9         2,171.0        2,184.7    2,186.2    2,198.3    2,229.6    2,256.5    2,293.4    2,330.4    2,408.4    2,499.6    2,561.5    2,614.9    2,668.9    2,723.8    2,779.5    2,836.9
All Alcoholic               Total                                      2,839.3         2,857.2         2,917.1        2,980.9    3,030.5    3,098.9    3,166.1    3,221.1    3,290.3    3,237.5    3,290.9    3,335.6    3,356.9    3,383.6    3,408.0    3,431.7    3,457.0    3,483.7
Beer                        Total                                      2,194.1         2,185.2         2,177.2        2,172.5    2,158.9    2,150.7    2,175.1    2,171.6    2,188.9    2,232.7    2,266.8    2,302.8    2,315.6    2,333.2    2,348.3    2,362.4    2,377.7    2,394.3
                            Beer                                       2,175.0         2,166.3         2,158.2        2,154.4    2,140.5    2,134.2    2,151.3    2,141.6    2,152.6    2,188.0    2,210.6    2,230.1    2,226.5    2,230.2    2,232.6    2,235.2    2,237.8    2,240.4
                            Sorghum Beer
                            Cider                                         19.1            18.9            19.0          18.1       18.4       16.5       23.8       30.0       36.3       44.7       56.2       72.8       89.1      103.0      115.7      127.2      139.9      153.9
Spirits (Standard)          Total                                         64.7            64.4            64.0          63.8       63.7       65.7       65.0       67.9       69.4       72.7       77.5       78.9       85.1       88.5       92.2       96.0      100.0      104.3
                            Spirits excluding FABs & Fort Wine            64.7            64.4            64.0          63.8       63.7       65.7       65.0       67.9       69.4       72.7       77.5       78.9       85.1       88.5       92.2       96.0      100.0      104.3
Spirits (Extended)          Total                                        154.1           175.7           235.5         278.3      326.2      376.1      407.7      447.1      495.5      373.0      376.3      382.3      383.6      387.9      392.2      396.6      401.1      405.6
                            Flavoured Alcoholic Beverages                125.6           148.9           210.0         253.6      301.4      352.1      385.2      428.3      474.1      353.8      357.3      363.3      364.6      368.9      373.2      377.6      382.1      386.6
                            Fortified Wine                                28.4            26.8            25.5          24.6       24.7       24.1       22.5       18.8       21.5       19.2       19.0       19.0       19.0       19.0       19.0       19.0       19.0       19.0
                            Sake
                            Rice Wine
Wines                       Total                                        426.5           431.9           440.4         466.3      481.6      506.4      518.3      534.5      536.4      559.0      570.4      571.6      572.7      574.0      575.3      576.7      578.1      579.5
                            Wine                                         426.5           431.9           440.4         466.3      481.6      506.4      518.3      534.5      536.4      559.0      570.4      571.6      572.7      574.0      575.3      576.7      578.1      579.5

Population (Millions)
                                                                          30.7            31.2            31.6           32.1       32.6       33.1       33.6       34.0       34.5       34.9       35.4       35.8       36.3       36.7       37.2       37.7       38.1       38.6

Litres per Capita
All Categories              Total                                        473.4           470.8           476.2         476.3      475.1      474.5      477.9      481.8      487.8      483.0      488.9      489.9      490.2      490.0      489.8      489.8      490.0      490.5
All Soft                    Total                                        380.9           379.1           384.0         383.4      382.1      380.8      383.5      387.2      392.4      390.3      395.9      396.9      397.7      398.0      398.2      398.7      399.3      400.1
Soft (Standard)             Total                                        146.1           146.5           148.9         150.4      150.2      151.8      151.8      153.1      153.2      150.4      153.5      153.0      152.4      151.6      150.8      150.1      149.5      149.0
                            Packaged Water                                 9.4            11.0            12.6          13.7       14.7       15.9       17.0       18.3       19.4       19.6       19.1       19.0       19.2       19.3       19.5       19.7       19.8       20.0
                            Carbonates                                    83.9            82.6            82.6          82.5       81.5       80.6       79.6       79.0       78.5       76.0       78.2       77.1       76.0       74.9       73.8       72.8       71.8       70.8
                            Juice                                         15.4            16.0            17.0          17.4       18.1       19.0       19.0       19.2       18.4       17.7       17.7       17.4       17.1       16.9       16.7       16.5       16.4       16.2
                            Nectars                                        6.7             7.1             7.0           6.7        6.4        6.5        5.9        5.8        5.7        5.5        5.9        5.9        5.8        5.7        5.7        5.6        5.6        5.5
                            Still Drinks                                   1.1             1.3             1.5           1.9        2.3        2.7        2.9        2.9        2.9        3.3        3.4        3.4        3.4        3.4        3.4        3.4        3.4        3.5
                            Squash/Syrups                                 22.2            20.7            20.1          19.6       18.1       17.2       16.7       16.2       15.7       15.3       15.3       15.1       15.0       14.8       14.5       14.3       14.1       13.8
                            Fruit Powders                                  2.0             2.0             2.0           1.9        1.9        2.0        1.9        1.8        1.8        1.7        1.8        1.8        1.7        1.7        1.7        1.7        1.7        1.6
                            Iced/RTD Tea Drinks                            0.3             0.3             0.4           0.4        0.5        0.7        0.9        1.0        1.3        1.4        1.7        1.9        2.0        2.2        2.4        2.6        2.9        3.1
                            Iced/RTD Coffee Drinks                         2.3             2.4             2.4           2.6        2.8        2.8        2.9        3.0        3.2        3.0        3.1        3.2        3.3        3.3        3.4        3.5        3.5        3.6
                            Sports Drinks                                  2.2             2.4             2.2           2.4        2.6        2.8        3.0        3.5        3.7        3.7        3.6        3.7        3.8        3.8        3.9        3.9        4.0        4.1
                            Energy Drinks                                  0.7             0.9             1.1           1.3        1.4        1.6        2.0        2.3        2.7        3.1        3.8        4.6        5.0        5.4        5.7        6.1        6.4        6.8
Soft (Extended)             Total                                        234.8           232.6           235.1         233.0      231.9      228.9      231.7      234.1      239.2      239.9      242.4      243.8      245.3      246.3      247.4      248.6      249.8      251.1
                            Bulk/HOD Water                                 6.3             7.0             7.6           7.5        7.8        8.2        8.6        8.7        8.9        8.8        8.8        8.6        8.7        8.8        9.0        9.1        9.3        9.5
                            White Milk                                    73.4            71.8            70.6          69.6       69.4       69.4       69.7       70.6       71.4       71.8       72.0       71.7       72.1       72.3       72.5       72.7       72.9       73.1
                            Flavoured Milk                                 4.6             4.3             4.3           4.2        4.5        4.6        4.6        4.7        4.9        4.6        4.6        4.6        4.6        4.7        4.8        5.0        5.1        5.2
                            Drinking Yogurt                                0.2             0.2             0.2           0.2        0.3        0.3        0.3        0.2        0.3        0.3        0.3        0.3        0.3        0.3        0.3        0.3        0.3        0.3
                            Fermented Milk                                 0.1             0.1             0.1           0.1        0.1        0.1        0.1        0.1        0.1        0.1        0.1        0.1        0.1        0.1        0.1        0.1        0.1        0.1
           
				
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Description: Extracted from Canadean's Global Beverage Forecasts report, Australasia Beverage Forecasts includes data tables for Australia and New Zealand, plus a regional summary. Aggregated totals for non-profiled countries are also given to obtain a complete regional picture. Product analysis is broken down in to 21 beverage categories (packaged water, carbonates, juice, nectars, still drinks, squash/syrups, fruit powders, iced/rtd tea, iced/rtd coffee, sports drinks, energy drinks, bulk/HOD water, dairy drinks, hot coffee, hot tea, beer, cider, spirits, flavoured alcoholic beverages, fortified wine, wine). Measures include million litres and litres per capita data for 1999 to 2010 actuals, plus forecasts to 2016
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