Deaths from smoking
in Japan
Deaths from smoking
in Japan
• This presentation provides estimates of the number
of deaths caused by smoking in Japan
• Particular emphasis is given to the number of deaths
in middle age (defined as ages 35 to 69)
• Available on www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Source of data: “Mortality from Smoking in
Developed Countries, 1950–2000”
• Updated edition of a 1994 book, authored by an
international team of scientists:
– Richard Peto, Professor of Medical Statistics, University of Oxford
– Alan Lopez, Professor of Medical Statistics, University of Queensland
– Jillian Boreham, Senior Research Fellow, University of Oxford
– Michael Thun, Chief of Epidemiology, American Cancer Society
• Uses WHO mortality data for lung cancer and for
other diseases, and UN population data
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Japan
Deaths from smoking, 1950 to 2000
• About 2.5 million people died from smoking during this
50-year period in Japan
• About 40% (1 million) of them were still in middle age
when they died
• This was about one in fourteen of all the deaths in
middle age during this period (1 million out of
the 13.4 million deaths at ages 35-69)
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Japan, year 2000
Annual deaths from smoking
• Smoking kills about 113,000 people a year in Japan
• About 33,000 die in middle age from smoking
• Many of those killed in middle age would have lived
on for 10, 20, 30 or more good years
• About 22 years of life are lost, on average, by those
killed in middle age by smoking
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Japan, year 2000
Smoking causes more deaths than all
non-medical causes put together
113,000 73,805*
smoking non-medical
Murder / assault Falls
Suicide Drowning
Road accidents Poisoning
Plane crashes Fires
Train crashes Floods / storms
Accidents at work Other natural disasters
Accidents at home Other accidents
*in year 2000
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Japan, year 2000
Smoking kills 113,000 people a year,
from many different diseases
21,000
vascular
(heart disease,stroke and
other diseases of the arteries
and veins)
62,000
cancer* 10,000
other
20,000
respiratory
*includes 42,000 (78%) of
www.deathsfromsmoking.net the 53,724 lung cancer deaths
Japan, year 2000
About one in five of all cancer deaths
is due to smoking
62,000 (21%) 295,000
from smoking total cancer deaths
52,000 (29%) 179,000
from smoking male
10,000 (9%) 116,000
from smoking female
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Male deaths in middle age from smoking
• The main pattern of increase and, eventually,
decrease in premature deaths from smoking is at a
more advanced stage among men than among women
• This pattern is seen first in middle age, then in old age
• The next three slides concentrate on male deaths
in middle age
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Japan, year 2000
About one in six of all deaths in
middle-aged men is due to smoking*
*29,000 (16%) of the
www.deathsfromsmoking.net 184,000 deaths at ages 35-69
Japan, year 2000
Of 100 men aged 35 years …
• 21 die in middle age*
• 3 of these 21 deaths are from smoking
3 21%
*risks at year 2000
www.deathsfromsmoking.net death rates for ages 35-69
Japan, 1950-2000
Male death in middle age: changing hazards*
Smoking All causes
1950 <1 50%
1955 1 43%
1960 2 42%
1965 3 40%
1970 4 36%
1975 4 31%
1980 4 28%
1985 4 25%
1990 4 23%
1995 4 23%
2000 3 21%
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Japan, year 2000
Summary for the whole population
In Japan:
• Smoking kills about 113,000 men and women every year
• About 33,000 die in middle age from smoking
• Smoking causes more deaths than all non-medical
causes put together
• About one in five of all cancer deaths is due to smoking
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Messages for the individual smoker
• The risk is big: about half are killed
• Those killed in middle age lose many years
• Stopping smoking works
– Even in early middle age, those who stop (before they have
lung cancer or some other fatal disease) avoid most of their
risk of being killed by tobacco
– Stopping before middle age works even better
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Deaths from smoking: an electronic resource
www.deathsfromsmoking.net
Published by
International Union Against Cancer (UICC), Geneva: Switzerland, 2006
Funded by
Clinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit (CTSU), University of Oxford
International Union Against Cancer (UICC)
Fogarty International Center, US NIH
UK Medical Research Council
Cancer Research UK
Project team Richard Peto, Judith Watt, Jillian Boreham
Project management Sinéad Jones
Advice and support Steve Woodward, Konrad Jamrozik, Lesley Walker, Trish Cotter
Design bwa-design.co.uk