USA by xiuliliaofz

VIEWS: 4 PAGES: 63

									                             Figure #1 on page 3

            obs              World                      M         Low-income
                                            High-income iddle-income         Europe and Central Asia
                      2000            4.4           3.9       5.8        3.3        7.9
                      2001            1.8           1.1       3.4        5.0        2.1
                      2002            2.1           1.5       4.3        3.2        5.4
                      2003            2.7           2.0       5.8        4.5        6.8
                      2004            3.9           3.3       7.5        6.2        8.3
                      2005            3.5           2.6       7.1        6.2        6.9
                      2006            4.0           3.0       8.1        6.3        8.0
                      2007            3.9           2.7       8.6        6.2        7.4
                      2008            1.5           0.2       5.7        5.8        3.9
                      2009           -2.2          -3.4       1.9        4.6       -6.6
                      2010            3.9           2.8       7.1        5.3        4.7
                      2011            3.3           2.4       6.0        6.5        4.0
                      2012            3.6           2.7       6.1        6.5        4.2




             Annual growth projected to slow somewhat
                             in 2011
                                     Real GDP growth rates in percent
            10.0
             8.0
             6.0
             4.0
             2.0
             0.0
            -2.0
                        World                           High-income
            -4.0
                        Middle-income                   Low-income
            -6.0
                  2000     2002      2004      2006      2008     2010      2012
            Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group, Global Economic Prospects


                             Figure #2 on page 3



                                            FDI                     Bond
                                                        Portfolio Equity      Bank         Short-term Debt
                               06-07              2.9      1.2         0.2       1.0                   0.9
                               2008               3.0      -0.3        0.1       0.8
                               2009               1.7      1.0         0.4       -0.1                  0.2
                 Top 9         2010               1.9      1.1         0.4       0.2                   0.7
                               06-07              4.8      0.8         1.9       4.2                   2.3
                               2008               5.4      -0.6        0.6       3.2
                               2009               3.9      0.1         -0.1      1.0                   -0.9
Europe & Central Asia (excluding Turkey)
                               2010
Europe & Central Asia (excluding Turkey)     2.4         0.2          0.5        0.4                      0.0
                               06-07         3.8         0.3          0.3        0.3                      0.5
                               2008          3.7         -0.3         -0.1       0.4
                               2009          2.6         0.1          0.4        -0.1                      0.3
            Other Middle       2010          2.7         0.1          0.3        0.0                      -0.1
                               06-07         3.6         0.0          0.1        0.3                       0.4
                               2008          4.1         0.0          0.0        0.1
                               2009          3.5         0.0          0.0        0.2                      0.0
             Low Income        2010          3.4         0.0          0.0        0.1                      0.1


                  Decline and recovery in net capital flows
                           was very concentrated
                                               percent share of GDP
             16
             14                                                                         Short-term Debt
             12                                                                         Bank
             10                                                                         Bond
              8                                                                         Portfolio Equity
              6                                                                         FDI
              4
              2
              0
             -2
                  06-07 2008 2009 2010 06-07 2008 2009 2010 06-07 2008 2009 2010 06-07 2008 2009 2010

                          Top 9            Europe & Central Asia       Other Middle          Low Income
                                            (excluding Turkey)

            Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group, Global Economic Prospects



                            Figure #3 on page 3
            Left chart                               Right chart


                            Production                        Stocks
            2004/05             1,744                2004/05    357.938
            2005/06             1,737                2005/06    350.799
            2006/07             1,730                2006/07    315.262
            2007/08             1,838                2007/08     336.61
            2008/09             1,929                2008/09    405.157
            2009/10             1,936                2009/10    439.189
            2010/11E            1,914                2010/11E    399.36



             Global grain markets tightened in 2010/11,
                but are well-supplied versus 2007/08
                     Production (million tons)                                Stocks (million tons)
            2,000                                               450


            1,900                                               400
Global grain markets tightened in 2010/11,
   but are well-supplied versus 2007/08
         Production (million tons)                               Stocks (million tons)
2,000                                            450


1,900                                            400


1,800                                            350


1,700                                            300


1,600                                            250


1,500                                            200
        2004/05   2006/07   2008/09   2010/11E         2004/05    2006/07   2008/09   2010/11E

Sources: USDA (January 12, 2011 update) World Bank DEC Propsects
    Ukraine    Poland     Turkey     Europe and Central Asia
           5.9        4.3        6.8        7.9
           9.2        1.2       -5.7        2.1
           5.2        1.4        6.2        5.4
           9.4        3.9        5.3        6.8
          12.1        5.3        9.4        8.3
           2.7        3.6        8.4        6.9
           7.3        6.2        6.9        8.0
           7.9        6.8        4.7        7.4
           2.1        5.0        0.7        3.9
         -15.1        1.7       -4.7       -6.6
           4.3        3.5        8.1        4.7
           4.0        4.1        4.1        4.0
           4.5        4.5        4.3        4.2




2
ows

m Debt



Equity




 2009 2010

ncome


spects




0/11,
 8
ons)
                Figure #4 on page 4


obs             Ireland    Greece   Spain     Portugal Belgium LMICs with Median < 200
   1/1/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
   1/4/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
   1/5/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
   1/6/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
   1/7/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
   1/8/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
  1/11/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
  1/12/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
  1/13/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
  1/14/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
  1/15/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
  1/18/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
  1/19/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
  1/20/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
  1/21/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
  1/22/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
  1/25/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
  1/26/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
  1/27/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
  1/28/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
  1/29/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
   2/1/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
   2/2/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
   2/3/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
   2/4/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
   2/5/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0
   2/8/2010           0.00     0.00      0.00      0.00     0.00      0




Figure #5 on page 4

                           Germany China
                High Income - excl. Germany     Developing - excl. China
      Sep-07          -0.6      -1.8      12.8        3.1
      Oct-07           1.1      -1.4      13.9        5.0
      Nov-07           0.7      -1.2      17.4        5.8
      Dec-07           5.2       6.3      19.7        8.9
      Jan-08           4.7       7.4      20.6       10.0
      Feb-08           7.8      17.0      19.1       12.5
      Mar-08           4.4       9.7      18.8        7.1
      Apr-08           1.6      15.6      16.2        4.1
      May-08          -4.7      -3.7      14.8       -2.6
      Jun-08          -5.2      12.5      10.3        1.0
       Jul-08         -7.3     -11.7        8.1      -1.9
      Aug-08          -8.9      -7.6        4.9      -1.1
      Sep-08        -11.6      -21.5        2.9      -3.5
      Oct-08        -14.3      -15.0        0.0      -4.2
      Nov-08        -16.9      -17.7       -3.8      -6.3
      Dec-08        -22.1      -24.1       -3.8     -13.6
      Jan-09        -28.4      -35.3       -1.9     -18.0
     Feb-09        -29.1   -37.3      4.9    -18.1
     Mar-09        -27.2   -36.4     14.3    -12.2
     Apr-09        -17.2   -20.2     21.9     -3.3
     May-09         -9.9   -11.2     28.5      1.7
     Jun-09         -0.2     0.0     24.4      7.1
      Jul-09         5.2     3.3     22.9      9.1
     Aug-09          9.5     3.6     18.2     12.2
     Sep-09         10.3     9.0     16.0     11.2
     Oct-09          8.4     6.0     15.7     10.4
     Nov-09          9.1    15.0     16.4      9.8
     Dec-09         10.7    11.5     19.2     12.9
     Jan-10         13.1     6.1     18.9     13.8
     Feb-10         12.1     0.7     17.7     14.1
     Mar-10         10.0     6.7     19.2      9.5
     Apr-10          9.6    30.0     17.1      8.0
     May-10         10.2    36.3     16.0      5.2
     Jun-10          8.7    27.6      8.9      3.5
      Jul-10         5.4     5.0      6.3      0.8
     Aug-10          2.5    -0.2      5.5     -0.6
     Sep-10         -0.6    -4.3      7.9     -1.3
     Oct-10         -2.3     1.1     12.0     -1.0
     Nov-10                          14.3


Figure #6 on page 4


                         LOG(DEVXF)
                                 LOG(R:\DS2\DATASYSTEM\DPG\DATA\EXP\EXPM.EDB::HIYDXG
                                            LOG(HIYXF)
               LOG(R:\DS2\DATASYSTEM\DPG\DATA\EXP\EXPM.EDB::DEVDXGSRMRCHSAKD)
               LDEVX     LDEVXF LHIYX       LHIYXF
                11.04116            12.5006
                10.96433          12.45679
                10.94775 11.00871 12.42901 12.48702
                10.96625 11.00041 12.45594 12.4785
                10.97844 11.01501 12.49033 12.49026
                10.95888 11.01966 12.45561 12.4914
                11.02242 11.02863 12.4901 12.49811
                 11.0273 11.03572 12.48236 12.5019
                11.03155 11.04363 12.47158 12.50722
                11.03922 11.05118 12.51813 12.51173
                11.00852 11.05889 12.51624 12.51667
                11.02822 11.06653 12.50713 12.52139
                11.05626 11.0742 12.53023 12.52622
                11.06492 11.08186 12.55932 12.53099
                11.07191 11.08952 12.52509 12.53579
                11.08504 11.09718 12.53855 12.54058
                 11.0877 11.10484 12.51137 12.54538
                11.11373 11.1125 12.53128 12.55017
                11.15673 11.12016 12.55256 12.55496
                11.10091 11.12782 12.50605 12.55975
                11.12172 11.13549 12.54627 12.56455
                11.15015 11.14315 12.55956 12.56934
                11.15446 11.15081 12.52441 12.57413
                11.17049 11.15847 12.54799 12.57892
                11.05892 11.16613 12.50132 12.58371
                11.15256 11.17379 12.55585 12.58851
11.15779   11.18145    12.55746    12.5933
11.20512   11.18911    12.56381   12.59809
11.12288   11.19677    12.53597   12.60288
11.13167   11.20444    12.55254   12.60768
11.15078    11.2121    12.54716   12.61247
11.14042   11.21976    12.53993   12.61726
11.21062   11.22742     12.5709   12.62205
11.19383   11.23508    12.56263   12.62685
11.21329   11.24274      12.573   12.63164
11.22475    11.2504    12.60345   12.63643
11.24224   11.25806    12.57604   12.64122
11.26345   11.26572    12.58677   12.64602
11.29683   11.27338    12.62359   12.65081
11.31863   11.28105    12.60909    12.6556
11.31068   11.28871    12.62086   12.66039
11.34487   11.29637    12.65652   12.66519
11.32868   11.30403    12.62145   12.66998
11.35825   11.31169    12.68356   12.67477
11.35222   11.31935     12.6808   12.67956
11.32317   11.32701    12.66291   12.68436
11.40074   11.33467    12.70491   12.68915
11.40632   11.34233    12.71965   12.69394
11.40574       11.35   12.70811   12.69873
 11.4159   11.35766    12.72279   12.70353
11.41811   11.36532    12.75321   12.70832
11.39365   11.37298     12.7005   12.71311
11.43196   11.38064    12.75943    12.7179
11.43968    11.3883    12.75514    12.7227
11.40559   11.39596    12.70594   12.72749
11.41718   11.40362    12.75938   12.73228
11.42684   11.41128    12.75756   12.73707
11.42002   11.41895    12.74249   12.74187
11.44667   11.42661    12.76537   12.74666
11.45591   11.43427     12.7405   12.75145
11.49859   11.44193    12.79351   12.75624
11.51082   11.44959    12.79845   12.76103
11.49847   11.45725    12.75684   12.76583
 11.5035   11.46491    12.78336   12.77062
11.53051   11.47257    12.80455   12.77541
11.48811   11.48023     12.7607    12.7802
11.53332    11.4879    12.80432     12.785
11.53323   11.49556    12.80335   12.78979
11.53656   11.50322    12.78718   12.79458
11.59123   11.51088    12.83679   12.79937
11.54694   11.51854    12.82546   12.80417
11.56267    11.5262    12.81442   12.80896
 11.6511   11.53386    12.85635   12.81375
11.57452   11.54152    12.84668   12.81854
11.59216   11.54918    12.82645   12.82334
11.63867   11.55684    12.91128   12.82813
11.62344   11.56451    12.88107   12.83292
11.62697   11.57217    12.88926   12.83771
11.66629   11.57983    12.92455   12.84251
11.64595   11.58749    12.88638    12.8473
11.67171   11.59515    12.92436   12.85209
11.71024   11.60281   12.94261   12.85688
  11.674   11.61047   12.89987   12.86168
11.67636   11.61813   12.94016   12.86647
11.66578   11.62579   12.91791   12.87126
11.68861   11.63346   12.93775   12.87605
11.66878   11.64112   12.93406   12.88085
11.66006   11.64878   12.94707   12.88564
11.64791   11.65644   12.92126   12.89043
 11.6728    11.6641   12.93972   12.89522
11.67512   11.67176   12.94359   12.90002
11.64032   11.67942   12.91048   12.90481
11.66743   11.68708   12.94187    12.9096
11.65976   11.69474   12.93952   12.91439
11.63944   11.70241   12.93949   12.91919
11.68932   11.71007   12.95161   12.92398
11.62179   11.71773   12.92644   12.92877
 11.6543   11.72539    12.9313   12.93356
11.71468   11.73305   12.96556   12.93835
 11.7327   11.74071   12.95348   12.94315
 11.7213   11.74837   12.94746   12.94794
11.73987   11.75603   12.98746   12.95273
11.75172   11.76369    12.9774   12.95752
11.76959   11.77136   12.99474   12.96232
11.78989   11.77902   13.01327   12.96711
11.77645   11.78668    12.9966    12.9719
  11.826   11.79434   13.02855   12.97669
11.84861     11.802   13.05268   12.98149
11.84261   11.80966   13.02985   12.98628
11.91437   11.81732   13.07441   12.99107
11.86358   11.82498   13.08071   12.99586
11.84139   11.83264    13.0335   13.00066
11.88016    11.8403    13.1117   13.00545
11.89996   11.84797   13.09239   13.01024
 11.8788   11.85563   13.07137   13.01503
11.91195   11.86329   13.12533   13.01983
11.88914   11.87095   13.10785   13.02462
11.89802   11.87861   13.10164   13.02941
11.89292   11.88627   13.12045    13.0342
11.88793   11.89393   13.11058     13.039
11.89795   11.90159   13.13066   13.04379
 11.9114   11.90925   13.11959   13.04858
11.88851   11.91692   13.11445   13.05337
 11.8716   11.92458   13.06893   13.05817
11.87748   11.93224   13.10155   13.06296
11.87574    11.9399    13.0792   13.06775
11.86794   11.94756   13.06744   13.07254
11.89884   11.95522    13.0934   13.07734
11.85674   11.96288   13.04313   13.08213
11.88885   11.97054   13.08591   13.08692
11.88649    11.9782   13.07005   13.09171
 11.8503   11.98587   13.02836   13.09651
11.95899   11.99353   13.08338    13.1013
 11.9431   12.00119   13.07748   13.10609
11.93214   12.00885   13.06752   13.11088
12.01373   12.01651   13.12159   13.11567
11.98829   12.02417   13.12316   13.12047
11.96989   12.03183   13.10214   13.12526
12.02145   12.03949   13.14124   13.13005
12.00691   12.04715   13.12958   13.13484
12.03322   12.05481    13.1223   13.13964
 12.0399   12.06248   13.13821   13.14443
12.02365   12.07014   13.13272   13.14922
11.99452    12.0778   13.10728   13.15401
12.06117   12.08546   13.13534   13.15881
12.01866   12.09312   13.12269    13.1636
12.01524   12.10078   13.11221   13.16839
12.03035   12.10844    13.1451   13.17318
12.02547    12.1161   13.12925   13.17798
12.01572   12.12376   13.11548   13.18277
12.05573   12.13143   13.16019   13.18756
12.02461   12.13909   13.11331   13.19235
12.07456   12.14675   13.17588   13.19715
12.10427   12.15441   13.18624   13.20194
12.05449   12.16207   13.15319   13.20673
12.14947   12.16973   13.19877   13.21152
12.10805   12.17739   13.17525   13.21632
12.13881   12.18505   13.22594   13.22111
 12.1577   12.19271   13.23562    13.2259
 12.1535   12.20038   13.23217   13.23069
 12.1539   12.20804   13.20974   13.23549
12.19774    12.2157   13.24073   13.24028
12.18416   12.22336   13.23785   13.24507
12.17735   12.23102   13.22123   13.24986
12.20968   12.23868   13.24448   13.25466
12.19594   12.24634   13.22748   13.25945
12.24125     12.254   13.25685   13.26424
12.26493   12.26166   13.27557   13.26903
12.23757   12.26933   13.24779   13.27383
12.25941   12.27699   13.24042   13.27862
12.29493   12.28465   13.24556   13.28341
12.29869   12.29231   13.28395    13.2882
12.28411   12.29997   13.27382   13.29299
 12.2983   12.30763   13.28883   13.29779
12.28529   12.31529   13.25724   13.30258
 12.3133   12.32295   13.29886   13.30737
12.31536   12.33061   13.30352   13.31216
 12.3071   12.33827    13.2705   13.31696
12.32608   12.34594   13.31222   13.32175
12.36223    12.3536   13.33153   13.32654
12.36456   12.36126   13.32519   13.33133
12.37989   12.36892   13.34289   13.33613
12.41528   12.37658   13.36716   13.34092
12.36891   12.38424   13.31924   13.34571
12.40347    12.3919   13.38207    13.3505
12.41729   12.39956   13.36053    13.3553
12.38933   12.40722   13.32212   13.36009
12.44523   12.41489   13.36852   13.36488
 12.4314   12.42255    13.3669   13.36967
 12.4198   12.43021   13.36418   13.37447
12.46952   12.43787    13.3914   13.37926
12.46092   12.44553   13.37796   13.38405
12.49403   12.45319   13.41547   13.38884
12.53778   12.46085   13.38832   13.39364
12.46995   12.46851   13.39796   13.39843
 12.5163   12.47617   13.38291   13.40322
12.54539   12.48384   13.41303   13.40801
12.52458    12.4915   13.40139   13.41281
12.52728   12.49916   13.40003    13.4176
12.54727   12.50682   13.43872   13.42239
12.52345   12.51448    13.3857   13.42718
12.57886   12.52214   13.43217   13.43198
12.60708    12.5298   13.44828   13.43677
12.58749   12.53746   13.40606   13.44156
12.63772   12.54512   13.47901   13.44635
12.61406   12.55279   13.49057   13.45115
12.57154   12.56045   13.40551   13.45594
12.61372   12.56811   13.49476   13.46073
12.61985   12.57577   13.45232   13.46552
12.58827   12.58343   13.43292   13.47031
12.61389   12.59109   13.46332   13.47511
12.58042   12.59875   13.41339    13.4799
12.57329   12.60641   13.40795   13.48469
12.53366   12.61407   13.39229   13.48948
12.41919   12.62173   13.28834   13.49428
12.37706    12.6294   13.27629   13.49907
12.35237   12.63706   13.20945   13.50386
12.36091   12.64472   13.23433   13.50865
12.38771   12.65238   13.21693   13.51345
12.41338   12.66004   13.23978   13.51824
12.38592    12.6677   13.21809   13.52303
12.42705   12.67536   13.24235   13.52782
12.48225   12.68302   13.27847   13.53262
12.45928   12.69068   13.24693   13.53741
12.51503   12.69835    13.3023    13.5422
12.54455   12.70601    13.3083   13.54699
12.54693   12.71367   13.32949   13.55179
12.63507   12.72133   13.37204   13.55658
12.60323   12.72899   13.33806   13.56137
12.64384   12.73665   13.37237   13.56616
12.65178   12.74431   13.40979   13.57096
12.65851   12.75197   13.39314   13.57575
 12.6824   12.75963   13.38577   13.58054
12.68095    12.7673   13.39995   13.58533
  12.645   12.77496   13.38578   13.59013
12.64004   12.78262   13.39431   13.59492
12.64794   12.79028   13.38576   13.59971
12.65081   12.79794   13.39323    13.6045
12.72871    12.8056               13.6093
           12.81326              13.61409
No data here!!

LMICs with Median > 200
          0
          0
          0
          0
                      CDS rates rise in Europe on possible credit
          0          rating downgrades; fall in developing world
          0           5-yr sovereign credit-default swap rates, basis points, Feb. 2010-Jan. 2011
          0            1500          Greece                      Belgium
          0                          Ireland                     LMICs with Median < 200
          0                          Portugal                    LMICs with Median > 200
          0            1200          Spain
          0
          0
                        900
          0
          0
          0             600
          0
          0
          0             300
          0
          0                0
          0
          0                  Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
          0                   Sources: Datastream and World Bank DEC Prospects Group
          0
          0
          0
          0




                                      Growth slowdown in industrial output
                                         appears to be bottoming out
                                 3m/3m %-change, volumes, seasonally adjusted annualized rates
                                40
                                30
                                20
                                10
                                  0
                               -10
                               -20
                               -30       China                             Developing - excl. China
                                         Germany                           High Income - excl. Germany
                               -40
                                 Sep-07           Jun-08        Mar-09         Dec-09          Sep-10
                                        Sources: Thomson Datastream and DEC Prospects Group
-10
-20
-30      China                          Developing - excl. China
         Germany                        High Income - excl. Germany
-40
  Sep-07         Jun-08       Mar-09        Dec-09        Sep-10
        Sources: Thomson Datastream and DEC Prospects Group




      Trade has yet to recover pre-crisis trend
          Log of merchandise export volumes, 2005 dollars
14


13                                            High-income
                                               countries

                                                     Developing
12                                                    countries


11


10
 Jan-91 Jul-93 Jan-96 Jul-98 Jan-01 Jul-03 Jan-06 Jul-08 Jan-11
         Sources: Datastream and World Bank DEC Prospects Group
e credit
ng world
010-Jan. 2011

n < 200
n > 200




Nov Dec Jan
s Group




trial output
ing out
sted annualized rates




loping - excl. China
Income - excl. Germany

Dec-09          Sep-10
Prospects Group
loping - excl. China
Income - excl. Germany

Dec-09        Sep-10
Prospects Group




e-crisis trend
 2005 dollars


 High-income
  countries

         Developing
          countries




 Jan-06 Jul-08 Jan-11
EC Prospects Group
   Chart USA-1 Consensus

   Consensus date Forecast for 2010 Forecast for 2011
           Jan-10                 2.9               3.1
           Feb-10                 3.1               3.0
           Mar-10                 3.1               3.0
           Apr-10                 3.2               3.1
          May-10                  3.3               3.1
           Jun-10                 3.3               3.1
            Jul-10                3.1               3.0
           Aug-10                 2.9               2.8
           Sep-10                 2.7               2.4
           Oct-10                 2.7               2.4
           Nov-10                 2.7               2.4
           Dec-10                 2.8               2.7
           Jan-11                 2.9               3.2


  3.5
             Obama-GOP stimulus agreement lifts
            consensus view for U.S. growth in 2011
  3.3



  3.0



  2.8



  2.5



  2.3


                                  Consensus forecast date:

                      Forecast for 2010           Forecast for 2011

Source: Consensus Economics Inc.
                                                  USA chart 2 RS and SP500
                                                  retail sales
                                                  sales x autos
                                                  SP-500 index Jan-100


                                           0.9                 1.0
             m/m                           0.7                 0.6

             ch% saar
               1/15/2009                  -26.5              -26.7
               2/15/2009                  -19.3              -20.7
               3/15/2009                   -7.6               -8.5
               4/15/2009                   -3.8               -1.8
               5/15/2009                   -2.9               -0.4
               6/15/2009                    0.0                1.1
               7/15/2009                    5.3                3.8
               8/15/2009                   12.4                7.1
               9/15/2009                    8.9                6.2
ment lifts    10/15/2009                    7.7                6.2
              11/15/2009                    2.3                6.2
th in 2011    12/15/2009                    6.7                6.9
               1/15/2010                    7.9                8.1
               2/15/2010                    9.4                8.4
               3/15/2010                    9.8               10.3
               4/15/2010                   10.8               10.9
               5/15/2010                   11.0                8.3
               6/15/2010                    4.6                2.5
               7/15/2010                   -0.8               -2.6
               8/15/2010                   -1.3               -1.3
               9/15/2010                    3.4                3.2
              10/15/2010                   10.0                8.9
              11/15/2010                   13.9               11.1
              12/15/2010                   15.1               11.5
               1/15/2011


             Chart data

                           Retail Sales           S&P-500
              1/15/2010                    7.9              100.00
              2/15/2010                    9.4               97.68
              3/15/2010                    9.8              100.05
              4/15/2010                   10.8              105.65
              5/15/2010                   11.0              107.82
              6/15/2010                    4.6               96.02
              7/15/2010                   -0.8               92.13
              8/15/2010                   -1.3              100.96
              9/15/2010                    3.4               96.88
             10/15/2010                   10.0              102.79
for 2011     11/15/2010                   13.9              106.21
             12/15/2010                   15.1              108.16
              1/15/2011                                     114.06
for 2011




                     U.S. retail (and equity markets) end
           16
                            year on strong footing
           14
           12          retail sales, ch% saar [L]
           10
             8
             6     SP-500 idx [R]
             4
             2
             0
            -2
                 1/1/2010       4/1/2010        7/1/2010       10/1/2010

                                      S&P-500              Retail Sales
           Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Thomson/Datastream
                                USA chart 3 Export and Import volumes




levels

          81.00
          74.02                 Export volumes Import volumes
          62.85     1/15/2009               -39.1          -29.4
          72.74     2/15/2009               -40.1          -33.6
          78.69     3/15/2009               -35.8          -35.7
          84.55     4/15/2009               -21.4          -30.5
          82.80     5/15/2009               -10.4          -23.7
          89.91     6/15/2009                -6.5          -19.4
          89.50     7/15/2009                 2.9           -7.0
          92.35     8/15/2009                 9.6            3.8
          93.52     9/15/2009                21.0           22.3
          99.44    10/15/2009                22.7           21.1
         100.00    11/15/2009                28.6           24.9
          97.68    12/15/2009                27.9           19.9
         100.05     1/15/2010                21.2           19.7
         105.65     2/15/2010                18.3           18.0
         107.82     3/15/2010                17.2           17.6
          96.02     4/15/2010                16.5           21.0
          92.13     5/15/2010                16.4           20.5
         100.96     6/15/2010                 7.4           23.1
          96.88     7/15/2010                10.0           23.4
         102.79     8/15/2010                 4.4           22.4
         106.21     9/15/2010                 8.0           10.8
         108.16    10/15/2010                 5.0            2.7
         114.06    11/15/2010                 8.1           -6.2

                  (saar)
arkets) end
                      120

                      115

                      110

                      105

                      100

                      95

                      90
           1/1/2011



 on/Datastream
d Import volumes




                           Net exports looks to play stronger role in
                      30
                            GDP growth for fourth quarter-2010

                      20

                      10

                       0

                     -10

                     -20

                     -30

                     -40
                       1/1/2009        6/1/2009       11/1/2009    4/1/2010   9/1/2010

                                     Export volumes          Import volumes
                   Source: U.S. Department of Commerce .
              Europe chart 1
              EA Retail          DEU Retail          FRA Retial          ITA Retail
  1/15/2011

ch y/y

              Euro Area          Germany             France              Italy
  1/15/2009               -2.9                -2.9                -0.3                -1.8
  2/15/2009               -5.4                -4.9                -2.5                -2.8
  3/15/2009               -2.8                -2.5                -5.6                -1.9
  4/15/2009               -3.1                -0.4                -2.3                -1.9
  5/15/2009               -4.6                -3.7                -5.2                -1.4
  6/15/2009               -2.5                -4.0                -0.1                -2.0
  7/15/2009               -1.9                -3.1                -1.6                -2.4
  8/15/2009               -2.9                -5.3                -1.8                -1.8
  9/15/2009               -3.7                -5.5                -3.4                -1.6
 10/15/2009               -2.0                -3.2                 1.7                -1.0
 11/15/2009               -3.4                -3.3                 1.3                -0.8
 12/15/2009               -1.3                -1.6                 3.9                -0.1
  1/15/2010               -1.8                -0.5                -0.2                -0.9
  2/15/2010               -0.1                 1.6                 1.1                -0.3
  3/15/2010                0.9                 1.9                 5.9                 0.3
  4/15/2010               -0.5                -0.1                 1.0                -0.3
  5/15/2010                1.3                 3.2                 4.8                -0.7
  6/15/2010                2.0                 4.1                -1.0                 0.5
  7/15/2010                1.4                 4.0                 4.4                 0.7
  8/15/2010                3.8                 4.0                 3.8                 0.8
  9/15/2010                2.3                 3.4                 2.3                 0.2
 10/15/2010                1.8                 2.3                -0.3                 0.6
 11/15/2010                0.8                 1.3                 3.6
 12/15/2010



                      6
                            European retail sales growth appears to
                                          be waning
                                 retail sales volume, ch% year-on-year [L];
                      4
                                     Euro Area consumer sentiment [R]

                      2

                      0

                     -2

                     -4

                     -6
                      1/1/2009         6/1/2009          11/1/2009           4/1/2010
                               Euro Area              Germany               Consumer confidence [R]
         Euro Area          Germany       Consumer confidence [R]
Source: National Agencies and Eurostat.
        EA CC            EA Bus C




        Consumer confidence [R]
                  -29.8
                  -31.9
                  -33.3
                  -28.8
                  -25.7
                  -23.3
                  -21.7
                  -20.9
                  -17.8
                  -18.4
                  -18.5
                  -17.2
                  -16.4
                  -18.5
                  -18.7
                  -15.5
                  -17.8
                  -17.6
                  -14.1
                  -11.0
                  -10.3
                  -11.8
                  -10.4




wth appears to          -10


                        -15


                        -20


                        -25


                        -30


                        -35
         9/1/2010
nsumer confidence [R]
nsumer confidence [R]
Europe chart 2
German orders, exports, ipman                 DEU Mfg orders Export orders       IP Mfg




                         German export orders in decline
                                         IP mfgr, ch% saar [L];
                            DL export orders and export volumes, ch% saar [R]
                30                                                                        50

                                                                                          40
                20
                                                                                          30

                10                                                                        20

                                                                                          10
                 0
                                                                                          0

               -10                                                                        -10
                 6/1/2009        11/1/2009          4/1/2010          9/1/2010
                      IP Mfgr [L]        Export orders [R]         Export volume [R]
             Source: Bundesbank.




                                                             1.6           0.9                    3.0
                                m/m                          5.2           8.2                   -0.6

                                ch% saar
                                  1/15/2009             -57.8            -61.5                  -39.5
                                  2/15/2009             -55.1            -61.2                  -44.6
                                  3/15/2009             -45.9            -53.6                  -44.4
                                  4/15/2009             -27.7            -30.8                  -34.2
                                  5/15/2009               0.5              4.6                  -15.5
                                  6/15/2009              23.1             34.9                    0.6
                                  7/15/2009              43.1             46.3                   14.7
                                  8/15/2009              44.7             47.3                   13.4
                                  9/15/2009              41.7             39.9                   15.7
                                 10/15/2009              24.0             31.2                   12.9
                                 11/15/2009              15.7             25.1                   13.3
                                 12/15/2009               4.3             11.5                    5.1
                                  1/15/2010              11.3             15.0                    2.1
                                  2/15/2010              11.8             12.8                   -0.6
                                  3/15/2010              29.3             31.2                    8.6
                                  4/15/2010              31.9             34.0                   14.1
                                  5/15/2010              39.2             40.2                   26.6
 6/15/2010   33.6   40.8   25.0
 7/15/2010   23.6   32.0   23.0
 8/15/2010   20.3   36.5   13.7
 9/15/2010    6.9   14.6    9.6
10/15/2010    5.7   10.5   10.3




11/15/2010    2.0    0.1    9.4
EXP vol           IMP vol




            1.8              -1.1
           -0.9              -0.2   Chart data

                                                      Export orders [R] IP Mfgr [L]
          -48.5             -33.4         1/15/2009               -61.5               -39.5
          -48.4             -35.5         2/15/2009               -61.2               -44.6
          -41.3             -24.1         3/15/2009               -53.6               -44.4
          -23.7             -14.0         4/15/2009               -30.8               -34.2
          -10.8              -9.4         5/15/2009                 4.6               -15.5
           -0.3             -11.6         6/15/2009                34.9                 0.6
           10.1              -7.1         7/15/2009                46.3                14.7
           21.3               2.0         8/15/2009                47.3                13.4
           25.4              18.5         9/15/2009                39.9                15.7
           17.5              26.1        10/15/2009                31.2                12.9
           13.5              21.0        11/15/2009                25.1                13.3
           11.4               0.0        12/15/2009                11.5                 5.1
            7.5              -4.1         1/15/2010                15.0                 2.1
            2.1              -1.8         2/15/2010                12.8                -0.6
           10.2              27.2         3/15/2010                31.2                 8.6
           25.4              26.0         4/15/2010                34.0                14.1
           45.1              50.1         5/15/2010                40.2                26.6
34.4    37.6    6/15/2010   40.8   25.0
35.3    56.7    7/15/2010   32.0   23.0
18.7    25.6    8/15/2010   36.5   13.7
17.3     5.9    9/15/2010   14.6    9.6
 6.7   -10.6   10/15/2010   10.5   10.3




               11/15/2010    0.1    9.4
                                               Japan Chart
                                               Exports, IP




                                               Japan's export woes con
                                  80                 IP mfgr and export volumes, ch%
                                  60

                                  40

                                  20

                                   0

                                 -20
                                    6/1/2009        10/1/2009


                                 Source: Bank of Japan.


                    m/m                 1.0                  -1.7

                    ch% saar
                     1/15/2009         -51.5             -69.1
                     2/15/2009         -61.0             -74.6
                     3/15/2009         -59.5             -73.5
                     4/15/2009         -45.4             -47.9
                     5/15/2009          -9.4              -0.6
                     6/15/2009          29.4              69.2
                     7/15/2009          47.0              79.0
Export volume [R]    8/15/2009          33.2              63.7
            -48.5    9/15/2009          22.8              43.6
            -48.4   ########            19.0              35.5
            -41.3   ########            22.3              33.0
            -23.7   ########            26.1              34.0
            -10.8    1/15/2010          34.1              31.3
             -0.3    2/15/2010          34.3              28.3
             10.1    3/15/2010          30.9              22.2
             21.3    4/15/2010          18.3              30.1
             25.4    5/15/2010          12.6              38.8
             17.5    6/15/2010           6.1              44.0
             13.5    7/15/2010           2.0              30.7
             11.4    8/15/2010          -3.6              10.7
              7.5    9/15/2010          -6.7              -1.8
              2.1   ########           -10.5             -12.6
             10.2   ########           -11.6             -13.5
             25.4
             45.1
34.4
35.3
18.7
17.3
 6.7
an's export woes continue
        and export volumes, ch% saar




10/1/2009    2/1/2010      6/1/2010     10/1/2010


             IP Mfgr       Export volumes




                          chart data


                                            IP Mfgr           Export volumes
                                6/15/2009              29.4                69.2
                                7/15/2009              47.0                79.0
                                8/15/2009              33.2                63.7
                                9/15/2009              22.8                43.6
                               10/15/2009              19.0                35.5
                               11/15/2009              22.3                33.0
                               12/15/2009              26.1                34.0
                                1/15/2010              34.1                31.3
                                2/15/2010              34.3                28.3
                                3/15/2010              30.9                22.2
                                4/15/2010              18.3                30.1
                                5/15/2010              12.6                38.8
                                6/15/2010               6.1                44.0
                                7/15/2010               2.0                30.7
                                8/15/2010              -3.6                10.7
                                9/15/2010              -6.7                -1.8
                               10/15/2010             -10.5               -12.6
                               11/15/2010             -11.6               -13.5
                       IP figure1



          HIY          DEV          WLD
2007M01    5.225485     14.22285     7.778683
2007M02    6.162959     13.68343     8.312227
2007M03
2007M04
           6.994467
           2.296646
                        14.45774
                        9.081562
                                     9.128327
                                     4.241493                Industrial production
2007M05    3.264548     9.336305     5.012421    20
2007M06    0.435081      7.27215     2.404851
2007M07    2.626531     7.749887      4.11637
2007M08    0.787389     6.190634     2.360751
2007M09    -0.65546     5.810327     1.230666    10
2007M10    0.941108     7.472613     2.849751
2007M11    0.589984     9.240003     3.111699
2007M12    5.288288     12.05976     7.286097
2008M01     4.70535     13.91535      7.41111     0
2008M02    8.542812     15.07421     10.48729
2008M03    4.913881     12.22851     7.092789
2008M04    2.883563     8.217939     4.488265
2008M05    -4.64567     2.984916     -2.36212    -10
2008M06    -3.54912     3.148442       -1.5304
2008M07    -7.63365     1.060162     -5.02251
2008M08    -8.85879      0.40275     -6.06424
2008M09    -12.7699     -1.99522     -9.52713    -20
2008M10      -14.493    -4.07739     -11.3368
2008M11    -17.0372     -7.43545     -14.1047
2008M12    -22.2867     -12.7136     -19.3525
2009M01    -29.1326     -15.2364     -24.9216    -30
2009M02    -29.7089     -12.3406     -24.4689
2009M03    -27.9584     -3.95771     -20.7922                                 HIY
2009M04    -17.2455      5.73689     -10.1852
2009M05    -10.0567     11.92162     -3.16341    -40
                                                       Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Gro
2009M06    -0.12855        13.868    4.445687      2007M01                    2008M04
2009M07    4.907473     14.94657     8.252712
2009M08    8.855741     14.82712     10.88243
2009M09    10.02447     13.46002     11.20128
2009M10    8.045808     12.42877     9.547771
2009M11    9.236563     12.45388     10.34482
2009M12    10.45931     15.18284     12.08103
2010M01    12.03414     15.49323        13.228
2010M02    11.27163     15.59802     12.76204
2010M03    9.934251     13.62603      11.2089
2010M04    11.80423     12.37486     12.00294
2010M05    12.51444     10.16811      11.6896
2010M06    10.63203     6.305097     9.102151
2010M07    5.600533     3.333591     4.804452
2010M08    2.370438     1.727118     2.145911
2010M09    -0.87774     2.320634     0.226879
2010M10      -2.1486    4.878016     0.251521
2010M11    -2.34153     7.600777     0.978585
2010M12
 production begins to pick-up again              (Volumes,
                  3m/3m, saar)




    HIY                 DEV                WLD
DEC Prospects Group
    2008M04                      2009M07               2010M10
IP figure2




             PYI            latest                    CTY
                                            GDP Size ($trn)           ctry       pyi
                    8.121            52.4         1.5         BRA     Brazil            8,121    8.121
                    3.744            53.9         4.6         CHN     China             3,744    3.744
                   38.018            57.1       11.9           E12    Euro area        38,018   38.018
                   31.774            51.5         1.5         ESP     Spain            31,774   31.774
                    29.24            43.1         0.3         GRC     Greece           29,240    29.24
                    1.134            56.7         1.4          IND    India             1,134    1.134
                   51.049            52.2         0.3           IRL   Ireland          51,049   51.049
                   26.256              59         0.2          ISR    Israel           26,256   26.256
                   35.084            54.7         2.1           ITA   Italy            35,084   35.084
                   39.738            48.3         5.2         JPN     Japan            39,738   39.738
                   11.273            56.3         0.4         POL     Poland           11,273   11.273
                   36.537            50.7         0.2         SGP     Singapore        36,537   36.537
                    8.215            56.4         0.6         TUR     Turkey            8,215    8.215
                   45.989              57       14.0          USA     United States    45,989   45.989
                    5.786            52.9         0.3         ZAF     South Africa      5,786    5.786



             Latest PMI supports pick-up in IP for both HIY and DEV
                                                     58
                                                     56
                                                     54
                                                                                                 Per Capita
                                                     52
                                                                                                  Income,
                                                     50
              0                 10                20 48          30               40
                                                                                                ($USD'000) 60
                                                                                                 50

                                                     46
                     GDP Size ($trn)
                                                     44
                                                     42
         Developing Countries                                         High income countries
                                                     40

                    Source: World Bank, DEC Prospects Group
                          IP figure3




           Developing countries IP reaches trend, while High income
              countries lag. (Industrial production index, Aug 2008 = 100)
130

120

110

100

 90

 80                                          DEV IP                DEV IPTREND
 70                                          HIP IP                HIY IPTREND
 60

 50
 2000M11        2002M11         2004M11    2006M11       2008M11       2010M11
income




DEV IPTREND
HIY IPTREND



    2010M11
                                    Finance table 1


Weak bond issuance at year end

$ billion                                                 2009
                                           H1             Q3           Q4   Total   H1


Total                                      110    99             144         353         197
 Bonds                                     36     33             47          115         86
 Banks                                     43     34             52          129         54
 Equity                                    32     32             45          109         57


Lat. America                   69          37     37             63          137         66
 Bonds                                     15     18             29           62         37
E. Europe*                                 22     21             30           72         53
 Bonds                                     13     11             9            33         31
Asia                                       44     33             45          122         64
 Bonds                                      6         3          7            16         13
Others                                      7         9          6            22         14


* Including Poland & Croatia
Source: DECPG
                                                 Date          Greece
                                                     1/14/2010     337.4
                                                     1/15/2010    331.41
           2010                                      1/18/2010    312.92
Q3         Q4           Dec        Total             1/19/2010    317.07
                                                     1/20/2010    350.22
     171          142         39           510       1/21/2010    345.04
     59           39           4           184       1/22/2010    340.33
     47           37          12           139       1/25/2010    327.97
     65           66          23           188       1/26/2010    324.85
                                                     1/27/2010    376.15
     65           33          10           164       1/28/2010    421.84
     31           15           3           82        1/29/2010    399.23
     36           33           3           122        2/1/2010    384.45
     17           16           1           64         2/2/2010    387.47
     60           72          26           196        2/3/2010    396.83
      9            7           1           28         2/4/2010    428.26
     10            4           0           28         2/5/2010    407.57
                                                      2/8/2010    425.64
                                                      2/9/2010    375.38
                                                     2/10/2010    356.42
                                                     2/11/2010    354.11
                                                     2/12/2010    354.95
                                                     2/15/2010     354.3
                                                     2/16/2010    355.32
                                                     2/17/2010    350.76
                                                     2/18/2010    357.68
                                                     2/19/2010    350.82
                                                     2/22/2010     356.4
                                                     2/23/2010    371.39
                                                     2/24/2010    384.32
                                                     2/25/2010    399.66
                                                     2/26/2010    364.02
                                                      3/1/2010    340.69
                                                      3/2/2010    320.09
                                                      3/3/2010    295.36
                                                      3/4/2010    306.46
                                                      3/5/2010    295.96
                                                      3/8/2010    280.65
                                                      3/9/2010    288.51
                                                     3/10/2010    283.97
                                                     3/11/2010    301.32
                                                     3/12/2010    291.52
                                                     3/15/2010     294.2
                                                     3/16/2010    290.45
                                                     3/17/2010    286.98
                                                     3/18/2010    315.61
                                                     3/19/2010    329.89
                                                     3/22/2010    341.29
                                                     3/23/2010    322.14
                                                     3/24/2010    322.65
                                                     3/25/2010    309.33
                                                     3/26/2010    295.51
3/29/2010   318.01
3/30/2010   333.17
3/31/2010   343.04
 4/1/2010   347.43
 4/2/2010   346.82
 4/5/2010    342.4
 4/6/2010    392.6
 4/7/2010   413.07
 4/8/2010   443.46
 4/9/2010   425.86
4/12/2010   364.05
4/13/2010   378.18
4/14/2010    432.9
4/15/2010   417.22
4/16/2010   440.36
4/19/2010   462.54
4/20/2010   468.76
4/21/2010   487.77
4/22/2010   638.87
4/23/2010   615.92
4/26/2010   710.43
4/27/2010   824.48
4/28/2010   750.16
4/29/2010   670.52
4/30/2010   718.52
 5/3/2010   642.95
 5/4/2010   750.06
 5/5/2010   838.01
 5/6/2010   940.68
 5/7/2010   938.69
5/10/2010   586.33
5/11/2010   527.42
5/12/2010    497.2
5/13/2010   526.24
5/14/2010    607.3
5/17/2010   650.32
5/18/2010   613.22
5/19/2010   682.39
5/20/2010   728.42
5/21/2010   718.26
5/24/2010   696.85
5/25/2010    704.7
5/26/2010   690.59
5/27/2010   686.79
5/28/2010   668.55
5/31/2010    663.2
 6/1/2010   721.17
 6/2/2010   738.42
 6/3/2010   725.94
 6/4/2010   761.54
 6/7/2010   781.27
 6/8/2010    794.7
 6/9/2010   763.61
6/10/2010   730.65
6/11/2010   732.76
6/14/2010    755.79
6/15/2010    814.66
6/16/2010    834.03
6/17/2010    810.87
6/18/2010    807.85
6/21/2010    824.57
6/22/2010    851.84
6/23/2010    928.67
6/24/2010   1125.81
6/25/2010   1103.74
6/28/2010    1084.1
6/29/2010    998.85
6/30/2010    909.47
 7/1/2010     911.3
 7/2/2010     899.7
 7/5/2010    903.26
 7/6/2010    892.63
 7/7/2010    895.09
 7/8/2010    884.28
 7/9/2010    840.57
7/12/2010    841.33
7/13/2010    810.87
7/14/2010    805.41
7/15/2010    802.16
7/16/2010    791.43
7/19/2010    803.64
7/20/2010    810.33
7/21/2010    788.98
7/22/2010    783.12
7/23/2010    769.47
7/26/2010    737.84
7/27/2010    696.88
7/28/2010    716.78
7/29/2010    737.96
7/30/2010    746.15
 8/2/2010     724.8
 8/3/2010     694.2
 8/4/2010    713.32
 8/5/2010    737.23
 8/6/2010    754.04
 8/9/2010    763.76
8/10/2010    770.18
8/11/2010    792.79
8/12/2010    810.56
8/13/2010    819.16
8/16/2010    845.09
8/17/2010    843.61
8/18/2010    842.58
8/19/2010    845.88
8/20/2010    880.89
8/23/2010    873.93
8/24/2010    898.52
8/25/2010    917.81
8/26/2010    921.81
8/27/2010    916.08
 8/30/2010    917.6
 8/31/2010   926.14
  9/1/2010   896.38
  9/2/2010   878.64
  9/3/2010   858.87
  9/6/2010   868.11
  9/7/2010   895.92
  9/8/2010   889.92
  9/9/2010   889.41
 9/10/2010   889.45
 9/13/2010   878.16
 9/14/2010   883.86
 9/15/2010   892.11
 9/16/2010   883.92
 9/17/2010   886.18
 9/20/2010    838.2
 9/21/2010   825.09
 9/22/2010   813.59
 9/23/2010   812.33
 9/24/2010   807.45
 9/27/2010   816.18
 9/28/2010   816.23
 9/29/2010   805.08
 9/30/2010   775.28
 10/1/2010   757.27
 10/4/2010   739.84
 10/5/2010   737.76
 10/6/2010   753.05
 10/7/2010   750.35
 10/8/2010   732.66
10/11/2010   705.59
10/12/2010   705.08
10/13/2010   677.96
10/14/2010   682.92
10/15/2010   670.24
10/18/2010   659.59
10/19/2010   671.62
10/20/2010   667.66
10/21/2010   663.41
10/22/2010   671.57
10/25/2010   661.55
10/26/2010   678.11
10/27/2010   752.22
10/28/2010   749.08
10/29/2010   794.54
 11/1/2010   831.54
 11/2/2010   843.46
 11/3/2010   850.49
 11/4/2010   851.94
 11/5/2010   866.28
 11/8/2010   865.77
 11/9/2010   866.38
11/10/2010   875.53
11/11/2010   880.95
11/12/2010   866.37
11/15/2010    857.66
11/16/2010    927.37
11/17/2010    955.46
11/18/2010    952.63
11/19/2010    969.39
11/22/2010   1006.43
11/23/2010   1022.47
11/24/2010    981.61
11/25/2010    970.91
11/26/2010    972.32
11/29/2010    966.41
11/30/2010    965.29
 12/1/2010     936.7
 12/2/2010    897.95
 12/3/2010    905.57
 12/6/2010    917.32
 12/7/2010    898.71
 12/8/2010    914.39
 12/9/2010    933.72
12/10/2010    944.03
12/13/2010     933.9
12/14/2010    918.38
12/15/2010    923.96
12/16/2010    953.85
12/17/2010    964.93
12/20/2010    969.51
12/21/2010    969.55
12/22/2010    981.16
12/23/2010   1015.61
12/24/2010   1017.94
12/27/2010    1017.9
12/28/2010    1017.9
12/29/2010   1019.11
12/30/2010   1021.28
12/31/2010   1026.49
  1/3/2011    1023.4
  1/4/2011   1014.57
  1/5/2011   1018.27
  1/6/2011   1024.59
  1/7/2011   1047.83
 1/10/2011   1063.36
 1/11/2011   1043.14
 1/12/2011    995.55
 1/13/2011    957.76
Finance Figure 1

Ireland    Portugal Spain     EM (right axis)*
    159.73    124.36    123.4 150.305
    158.98    134.24   125.81 150.7586
                                                 European risk aversion appears to be fading out once again
    151.63    127.11   120.58 151.505             5-year sovereign credit-default swaps, basis points (bps)
    152.12    127.44   122.61 150.1327
                                               1,200                     Greece                           Ireland
    155.54    141.12   131.63 153.2736                                   Portugal                         Spain
    154.39    148.35   134.56 157.8655                                   EM (right axis)*
                                               1,000
    153.52    151.21   129.87 161.8132
    141.28    141.79   118.99 157.1205           800
    137.01    130.34   109.93 159.0945
    145.55    149.32   129.03 162.6773           600
    151.42    168.58   139.95 166.0164
     151.6    161.68   129.07 166.6777           400
    154.08    161.02   127.46 167.5395
    156.65    167.33   134.12 164.1659           200
    161.54    195.35   152.42 164.505
                                                    0
    172.13    229.55    170.8 175.8623

                                                        Jan-10
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                                                        Apr-10
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                                                        Oct-10
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                                                        Oct-10
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                                                        Aug-10
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                                                        Aug-10
                                                        Aug-10
                                                        Sep-10
                                                        Aug-10
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                                                        Nov-10
                                                        Nov-10
                                                        Nov-10
                                                        Feb-10
                                                        Feb-10
                                                        Feb-10
                                                        Feb-10
                                                        Feb-10
                                                        Feb-10
                                                        Mar-10
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                                                        May-10
                                                        May-10
                                                        May-10
                                                        May-10
                                                        May-10
                                                        May-10
                                                        May-10
    163.88    226.92   166.52 183.1827
    177.09    244.38   173.38 185.5577           * Excluding high-risk countries: Argentina, Pakistan, Venezuela, and Ukraine
    153.86    209.54   145.28 181.4105
    152.75    191.58   140.45 174.2805
    148.95    204.63   137.45 169.8482
    155.24      194.3  139.95    173.64
    158.39    192.62   139.45 173.7332
    156.42    186.22   137.27 172.2773
    151.27    175.46   132.15 170.0264
    150.26    171.27   128.97 168.9982
    147.35    160.53   121.97 166.1255
    144.33    163.67   122.75 163.0214
     147.3    170.93    128.5 164.9277
    151.87    180.68   135.79 166.0495
    151.43    181.35   141.91 166.5673
    143.82    163.55   129.71 161.0491
    139.46    154.85   121.13 156.6255
    127.04    134.72   110.73 153.2295
    123.41    127.85   102.74 151.1805
    124.41    127.38   103.49 148.7945
    123.04    120.18   100.82 144.5473
    119.09    114.46    96.94    139.95
    119.18    117.71      98.5 139.7991
     117.1    112.32    92.32 134.0432
    117.71      115.7   96.09 133.0414
    114.71    113.08    94.18 130.7727
    114.65    113.96    93.63 132.2714
    116.53    115.38      94.7 131.4777
    115.82    115.02    93.73 127.0595
    124.42    123.96   101.12 128.4991
    133.03    136.18   110.32 130.8559
    134.35    137.63    111.9 136.2523
    129.54    133.06   105.99 134.1786
    130.74    137.57   108.82 135.0914
    129.48    137.84   109.23 135.3318
    127.89      131.9  106.74 136.7241
134.86   135.45   112.78   136.5323
142.32   139.46   115.86   136.9736
146.37   145.26   118.89   138.1432
146.48   145.63   118.43   134.9559
146.29   145.35   118.39   134.9995
 142.8    146.8    115.6   132.5609
152.29   155.13   125.61   131.4936
159.87   162.65   131.38   133.5959
165.55   169.85   136.68   137.3382
154.03   157.48    126.1   135.3473
148.18   152.39   124.96   131.9336
142.96   154.67   129.83   130.7145
149.19   179.71   141.82   128.7186
 146.4   179.71   144.66   128.3564
148.75   196.61   151.32   131.4286
148.81   203.46    149.9   135.3164
142.25   201.43   145.35    132.175
149.72   232.02   159.67   134.1191
174.66    276.2   171.57     141.23
 183.6   279.99   175.53     139.38
203.18   315.57   188.85   141.0141
   248   382.98    209.2   151.9823
218.05   321.23   188.58   151.0855
193.83   299.24   169.58   142.1341
193.46   289.68   166.94   142.5595
176.98   275.33   157.28   142.2555
220.77   350.63   207.83   150.8386
237.79    422.3   227.43   159.5495
272.38   461.32   274.58   184.0868
263.11   440.15   251.16   187.8286
181.42   255.26   172.71   151.0241
172.46   229.32   160.99    151.935
159.95   193.05   143.82   140.7886
169.96   198.89   154.92     141.95
197.18   249.15   179.82   154.0914
213.86    282.9   192.61   156.5345
204.51   271.69   180.77   155.4095
211.55   280.77   182.85   163.3773
230.36   335.08   208.92   176.9741
228.35   319.29   200.87   176.7632
234.29    325.6   213.71   171.5955
 254.9    334.1   239.59   186.0536
 244.9   325.58   234.92   172.3086
246.15    322.9   232.95   160.8455
232.41   308.78   218.83   161.0764
 232.4    305.3    218.8   161.0823
 259.9    345.7   247.57   168.8127
 264.9   344.84   251.73   168.0159
263.86   334.76   254.18   170.0205
284.83   358.42   268.96     187.39
279.01   355.88   269.88   190.0991
284.56   349.92   265.59   194.4995
254.26   309.23   239.83   189.2805
234.04   295.76    223.2   182.3691
231.13   291.17   215.84   179.0641
239.86   302.72   233.11   174.1605
252.01   316.93   247.06   172.3927
257.41   316.22   258.22   172.1132
249.04   307.88   242.35   169.9564
242.44    291.9   216.35   166.8027
245.83   283.35   219.29   162.4314
263.63   300.59   249.32   167.4605
267.33   319.09   265.06   170.8205
271.03   331.25    266.4   176.7827
271.07   332.45   265.83   179.9555
268.54   327.12   265.83   178.0418
275.35   329.34   270.88   186.0432
266.02    309.8    261.4   183.7814
261.93   306.09   262.51   187.2436
255.23    288.1   255.76   184.8545
260.11   297.05   264.83    181.115
252.53   287.74    251.1   179.7127
254.15   290.96   245.85   179.0309
241.27   279.28   230.95   173.2441
228.68   265.05    210.4   169.9932
239.49   278.66   217.06   170.6659
228.42   278.19   207.74   164.8795
241.36   284.71   220.61    164.395
250.86   289.26   220.51   164.7277
 248.8   284.73   213.98   166.6514
262.98   285.73   211.63   169.8568
259.05   291.12   211.67   167.5895
251.32   280.98   202.99   163.9177
250.87   282.08   201.83   160.0091
244.74   271.34   202.41   159.0655
229.42    250.4   187.13   155.7895
208.11      225   177.18   152.5155
205.13   220.95   183.04   154.1986
209.52   223.79    182.7   152.3277
211.63   229.98   185.31   152.5141
208.96   219.97   179.84   148.3582
198.68   215.99   178.17   148.4277
208.26   225.77   184.35    149.795
214.89   235.05   192.19   149.8841
 222.1   240.64    194.4   149.3041
236.07   245.93   195.79     146.29
249.93   247.93   202.13   147.1586
271.05   270.13    214.9    150.835
278.96   273.33   217.83   152.2686
280.77   273.58   217.91     151.79
304.47   279.48   223.93    152.575
274.96   262.73   208.29   148.5123
272.82   262.79   208.14   148.1464
280.48    269.6   213.91   148.0436
306.48   283.04   233.12   150.7809
294.29   281.97   227.14   150.3909
309.09    294.8   237.28   155.7473
323.82   315.32   241.51   161.6123
336.17   338.02   246.18   164.0336
341.51   345.82   247.97   166.8095
 340.6    346.5    247.3   166.9309
351.99   344.82   243.74   168.6205
332.53   326.09   220.43   162.3186
336.19   302.09   212.21   160.1145
336.79   290.88   209.33      157.1
 340.2   296.97   215.57   155.2641
382.32   330.73   236.07   160.4745
370.58   324.99   229.79   163.4668
380.64   335.76   228.21   160.9982
380.43   337.71   228.27   160.1773
366.38   323.21   219.38   156.3505
381.52   340.77   230.21   157.0968
392.87   349.49   232.22   156.0768
391.23   351.73   229.72   155.1132
422.42    364.9   237.74   155.0109
 444.9   373.51   235.65   155.8373
443.12   371.04      234     154.14
466.35   393.33   234.92    153.985
476.86   404.16   227.48   156.7373
463.15   389.89   221.24   155.2177
489.77   430.95   227.61   153.6132
486.22   446.57   233.66   154.3445
466.88   441.08   229.07   153.1386
458.27   408.79   230.71   151.8668
440.69    399.2   225.65    149.935
437.04   409.06   227.65   147.9682
436.68   406.25   228.22   143.3518
448.13   410.67   229.15   139.4382
448.17   408.72   225.83   138.4345
436.97   396.19   216.55     135.74
427.38   381.77   208.07   134.6823
438.68   396.46   209.74   132.4414
411.11   372.06   196.96     125.35
409.01   370.18    200.1   126.6623
403.67   360.49   200.03   128.7032
395.33   344.21   197.39     131.32
416.39   347.65   200.67   133.8609
417.63   343.78   200.28   134.5668
 417.9   339.13   202.23   131.7036
427.92   343.14   203.82   132.7559
 421.9   332.24   199.68   130.7236
427.17   330.97   200.33      131.8
443.15    347.1   205.57   134.0464
461.01   359.96   209.18   132.9241
472.33   379.26   214.41   133.3614
498.87   394.03   223.93   131.8323
517.32   406.38   225.41   130.4627
557.42   422.82   230.09   127.8545
582.68   439.32   233.21      122.3
578.07   445.08   249.96   124.0591
598.91   467.28   265.47   129.4273
567.39   456.71   265.91   130.6027
597.07   474.77    277.1   133.4264
595.33   478.06   279.33   135.8714
 536.5   433.51   262.43    136.735
493.65   414.26   250.15   137.5573
521.83   423.98   256.89    142.235
523.37    408.1   256.75   140.6523
 508.8    411.2   256.96   137.2782
507.06   416.76   260.37   137.6995
527.36   457.55   282.26   138.3655
574.85   486.18   301.26     144.04
579.55   481.04   294.98   143.5309
580.57   476.99   299.65   143.3218
598.55   501.98   322.76     150.37
603.84   538.43   351.24   154.7891
604.89   542.91   364.01   160.4982
567.71   478.65   312.63   151.3977
544.67   433.45    292.2   146.8223
542.22   428.01   295.82   142.3718
555.32   442.85   314.61   143.0791
532.83   428.04   306.77   140.0164
525.89   430.29   302.85   141.2005
545.56   452.79    327.4   142.1205
560.27   478.07   338.76   142.5368
553.69   463.23   334.92   141.5932
537.03   441.57   322.22   140.5977
 539.2   437.58   317.64   142.0095
560.37   457.01   325.92   142.2977
575.09   466.86   332.18   142.0136
580.68    476.2   343.04   144.9723
 589.2    483.4   341.53     144.83
 594.1   486.96    347.5   143.8014
603.16   492.96    346.8   143.8714
601.06    496.3   347.52   143.9186
 601.1    496.3    347.5   143.9223
 603.4    498.2      350   143.8891
602.49   496.33   348.48   143.2614
620.19   496.34   348.73   142.3236
 619.2    497.3   347.74   141.8841
 616.5    495.1    347.4   140.4614
617.29   491.39   337.91   138.0332
629.02   497.49   334.79   139.0527
 641.1   524.33    348.4   141.1823
657.99   539.94   357.63   145.7273
686.48   549.98   359.63   150.0686
671.06   535.71   347.67   148.1886
654.91   504.13   328.02   144.4368
635.74   483.53   306.96     145.05
                                        Finance Figure 2

                                        EMBIG    MSCI (US$)
                             1/1/2010     294.43   989.47
ding out once again                                           EM assets appear relatively stro
                             1/4/2010     291.84 1004.51
                             1/5/2010     294.89 1015.26      MSCI Emerging Market Index
                             1/6/2010     287.05 1021.75        1200
                      250
                             1/7/2010     287.37 1014.42
                             1/8/2010     288.42 1016.41        1150
                      200   1/11/2010     280.21 1028.07
                            1/12/2010     288.21 1021.18        1100
                      150   1/13/2010     286.13 1012.09
                                                                1050
                            1/14/2010     294.69 1013.29
                      100   1/15/2010     301.42 1010.77
                                                                1000
                            1/18/2010     301.42 1012.55
                            1/19/2010     297.25 1013.41         950
                      50
                            1/20/2010     303.01   997.49
                            1/21/2010     313.44   981.17        900
                      0
                            1/22/2010     317.87   963.85
            Jan-11
            Jan-11
            Jan-11
            Jan-11
            Nov-10
            Nov-10
            Nov-10
            Nov-10
            Nov-10
            Nov-10
            Nov-10
            Nov-10
            Dec-10
            Dec-10
            Dec-10
            Dec-10
            Dec-10
            Dec-10
            Dec-10




                            1/25/2010     311.69   959.06        850




                                                                       Jan-10
                                                                       Jan-10
                                                                       Jan-10
                                                                       Jan-10
                                                                       Jan-10
                                                                       Jan-10
                                                                       Jan-10
                                                                       Feb-10
                                                                       Feb-10
la, and Ukraine             1/26/2010     313.65   938.06
                            1/27/2010     315.28   928.71
                            1/28/2010      317.6   940.07
                            1/29/2010     322.57   933.59
                             2/1/2010      319.1   934.22
                             2/2/2010     318.42   940.43
                             2/3/2010      313.9   952.26
                             2/4/2010     330.56   926.41
                             2/5/2010     341.01    897.7
                             2/8/2010     336.18   894.07
                             2/9/2010     331.61   908.67
                            2/10/2010     321.43   912.49
                            2/11/2010      314.9   922.91
                            2/12/2010     321.47   921.75
                            2/15/2010     321.47   924.73
                            2/16/2010     323.17   932.55
                            2/17/2010     314.66   945.09
                            2/18/2010     309.98   943.11
                            2/19/2010     310.68   933.35
                            2/22/2010     307.36    943.3
                            2/23/2010     319.81   940.21
                            2/24/2010     316.17   933.23
                            2/25/2010     315.93   922.93
                            2/26/2010     310.88   935.93
                             3/1/2010     301.84    947.9
                             3/2/2010     298.19   959.66
                             3/3/2010     300.81   966.43
                             3/4/2010      300.6   961.34
                             3/5/2010     288.12   974.92
                             3/8/2010     280.99   986.08
                             3/9/2010     279.01   986.15
                            3/10/2010     274.38   993.44
                            3/11/2010     272.31   989.83
                            3/12/2010     272.98   992.68
                            3/15/2010     272.44   983.04
3/16/2010   275.78    991.48
3/17/2010   272.34   1005.77
3/18/2010   271.67   1001.51
3/19/2010   270.84    997.94
3/22/2010   275.54    989.93
3/23/2010   272.69    994.12
3/24/2010   260.47       992
3/25/2010   255.59    989.95
3/26/2010    260.8    993.08
3/29/2010   260.16   1003.67
3/30/2010   259.29   1009.33
3/31/2010   261.33   1010.33
 4/1/2010      259   1027.27
 4/2/2010      259   1028.54
 4/5/2010   243.08   1036.62
 4/6/2010   245.85   1039.27
 4/7/2010   255.06   1042.99
 4/8/2010   253.16   1036.31
 4/9/2010   251.94      1044
4/12/2010    253.5   1041.38
4/13/2010   254.14   1033.81
4/14/2010   245.38   1046.44
4/15/2010   242.07   1047.51
4/16/2010    251.5   1032.08
4/19/2010    249.6   1011.29
4/20/2010   247.56   1022.86
4/21/2010   253.25   1026.89
4/22/2010   254.08   1020.67
4/23/2010    251.6   1024.07
4/26/2010   252.26   1035.22
4/27/2010   271.74   1020.24
4/28/2010   266.65   1005.27
4/29/2010   269.21   1014.08
4/30/2010    274.4   1020.03
 5/3/2010   269.98   1008.31
 5/4/2010   288.17    990.64
 5/5/2010   303.33    970.24
 5/6/2010   339.52    948.54
 5/7/2010    338.8    927.04
5/10/2010    305.9    967.23
5/11/2010   303.54    958.83
5/12/2010   293.56       968
5/13/2010    291.7    975.56
5/14/2010    308.5    959.81
5/17/2010   308.52    939.74
5/18/2010   322.68    939.78
5/19/2010   331.62    910.55
5/20/2010   354.09    882.42
5/21/2010   358.83    886.66
5/24/2010   352.24     891.5
5/25/2010   369.62    855.52
5/26/2010   355.35    883.18
5/27/2010    334.8    904.18
5/28/2010   342.54    917.05
5/31/2010   342.54     926.4
 6/1/2010   343.87    907.13
 6/2/2010    336.1    908.55
 6/3/2010   329.18    924.67
 6/4/2010   353.48    913.49
 6/7/2010    355.7    889.66
 6/8/2010   363.26    891.12
 6/9/2010   356.14    895.21
6/10/2010   340.73    906.98
6/11/2010    347.8    917.18
6/14/2010   339.83     930.3
6/15/2010   332.69    937.68
6/16/2010   332.22    943.36
6/17/2010   335.87     947.2
6/18/2010   327.82    953.48
6/21/2010   323.68    978.59
6/22/2010   332.17    967.61
6/23/2010   338.52    960.21
6/24/2010   338.04    952.13
6/25/2010   340.25    947.56
6/28/2010   343.89    951.81
6/29/2010   353.81    924.81
6/30/2010   358.23    917.99
 7/1/2010   363.09     909.3
 7/2/2010   359.54    913.55
 7/5/2010   359.54    913.11
 7/6/2010   359.41    930.46
 7/7/2010   350.16     930.2
 7/8/2010   342.22    940.75
 7/9/2010   336.16    951.85
7/12/2010   334.66    952.49
7/13/2010   323.43    957.22
7/14/2010   328.48    961.51
7/15/2010   334.25    957.14
7/16/2010   335.86    948.92
7/19/2010   331.68    945.06
7/20/2010    330.6    953.68
7/21/2010   332.41    964.65
7/22/2010   322.92    973.39
7/23/2010   313.85    981.42
7/26/2010   308.16    985.48
7/27/2010   301.68    991.04
7/28/2010    306.8    991.29
7/29/2010   304.57    993.84
7/30/2010   312.88    991.41
 8/2/2010   299.52   1012.94
 8/3/2010   298.63   1009.67
 8/4/2010   292.87   1011.48
 8/5/2010   296.74   1011.72
 8/6/2010   300.47   1010.95
 8/9/2010   290.15   1015.99
8/10/2010   295.84    1001.7
8/11/2010   301.91    982.23
8/12/2010   299.93    976.18
8/13/2010   303.83    980.47
8/16/2010   314.27    985.24
 8/17/2010   301.38    993.79
 8/18/2010   295.62     994.1
 8/19/2010   299.33    994.25
 8/20/2010   299.55    988.16
 8/23/2010   295.12     986.3
 8/24/2010   311.79    973.58
 8/25/2010    311.8    962.64
 8/26/2010    318.3    966.05
 8/27/2010   307.34    970.04
 8/30/2010   321.09    972.29
 8/31/2010   325.64    970.05
  9/1/2010   311.84    989.76
  9/2/2010    307.8    995.28
  9/3/2010   300.83   1003.75
  9/6/2010   300.83   1011.73
  9/7/2010   315.26   1006.14
  9/8/2010   314.69   1004.55
  9/9/2010   306.32   1009.09
 9/10/2010   303.22   1012.98
 9/13/2010   307.93   1033.64
 9/14/2010   312.75   1035.51
 9/15/2010   304.96   1038.11
 9/16/2010   299.94   1031.06
 9/17/2010   304.87   1035.94
 9/20/2010   307.78   1044.18
 9/21/2010   317.18   1043.95
 9/22/2010    315.5   1047.95
 9/23/2010   316.31   1047.16
 9/24/2010   308.07   1053.27
 9/27/2010   312.14   1061.57
 9/28/2010   315.76   1061.32
 9/29/2010    305.4   1070.38
 9/30/2010   304.52   1075.53
 10/1/2010   301.71   1086.09
 10/4/2010   304.86   1090.76
 10/5/2010   301.48   1096.86
 10/6/2010   302.72   1106.75
 10/7/2010    300.2   1102.82
 10/8/2010   299.31   1101.27
10/11/2010   299.31   1107.67
10/12/2010   288.21   1098.95
10/13/2010   280.57   1117.69
10/14/2010   276.64   1127.19
10/15/2010   275.44   1121.43
10/18/2010   285.45   1112.42
10/19/2010   291.99   1097.66
10/20/2010   291.28   1101.28
10/21/2010   286.47   1106.23
10/22/2010   284.48   1105.19
10/25/2010   279.85    1115.3
10/26/2010   273.36   1116.61
10/27/2010   268.89   1098.93
10/28/2010   271.44   1102.82
10/29/2010    282.5   1105.75
 11/1/2010   278.08   1120.85
 11/2/2010   279.18   1124.19
 11/3/2010   274.07   1132.44
 11/4/2010   275.07   1151.08
 11/5/2010   270.06   1155.94
 11/8/2010   274.24   1154.18
 11/9/2010   268.46   1154.62
11/10/2010   277.39   1147.95
11/11/2010   277.39   1138.84
11/12/2010   276.58   1121.17
11/15/2010    272.3   1115.05
11/16/2010   290.52   1100.57
11/17/2010   284.37   1093.82
11/18/2010   281.36   1110.98
11/19/2010   282.86   1112.02
11/22/2010   289.15   1113.65
11/23/2010   297.81   1090.01
11/24/2010   285.21   1096.72
11/25/2010   285.21   1099.06
11/26/2010   285.21   1081.06
11/29/2010   304.04   1080.69
11/30/2010   321.67   1075.85
 12/1/2010   300.26    1097.5
 12/2/2010   293.67   1114.03
 12/3/2010   286.15   1121.78
 12/6/2010   291.99   1126.43
 12/7/2010   270.76   1130.48
 12/8/2010   274.49   1115.25
 12/9/2010   276.64   1116.56
12/10/2010   272.52   1114.79
12/13/2010   278.27   1122.85
12/14/2010    264.8   1128.89
12/15/2010   270.74   1120.29
12/16/2010   282.16   1111.85
12/17/2010   295.28   1115.42
12/20/2010   290.08   1111.01
12/21/2010   290.81   1124.34
12/22/2010   284.17   1126.49
12/23/2010   282.35   1127.78
12/24/2010   282.35   1126.83
12/27/2010   279.66   1124.96
12/28/2010   278.38    1125.9
12/29/2010   285.49   1136.89
12/30/2010   280.34   1145.79
12/31/2010   288.52   1151.38
  1/3/2011   282.42    1163.5
  1/4/2011   270.62   1165.05
  1/5/2011   263.52   1160.98
  1/6/2011   271.86   1154.99
  1/7/2011   281.63   1147.14
 1/10/2011    287.6    1136.2
 1/11/2011   280.97   1143.14
 1/12/2011   278.37   1163.07
 1/13/2011   281.38   1163.03
 1/14/2011   281.38   1160.03
Jan-10
Feb-10
Feb-10
Feb-10
Feb-10
Feb-10
Feb-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Mar-10
Mar-10
Mar-10
Mar-10
Mar-10
Mar-10


                                                                                                        Emerging Market Index
Mar-10
Apr-10
Apr-10
Apr-10
Apr-10
Apr-10
Apr-10
Apr-10
   May…
   May…
   May…
   May…
   May…
   May…
   May…
Jun-10
Jun-10
Jun-10
Jun-10
Jun-10
Jun-10
Jun-10
 Jul-10
 Jul-10
 Jul-10
 Jul-10
 Jul-10
 Jul-10
 Jul-10
 Jul-10
  Aug-…
  Aug-…
  Aug-…
  Aug-…
  Aug-…
  Aug-…
  Aug-…
  Sep-…
  Sep-…
  Sep-…
  Sep-…
  Sep-…
  Sep-…
  Sep-…
Oct-10
Oct-10
                                                                                                                                          M assets appear relatively strong at the start of 2011




Oct-10
Oct-10
Oct-10
Oct-10
                                                                         EM equity index [left]




Oct-10
  Nov-…
  Nov-…
  Nov-…
  Nov-…
           EM bond spreads [right]
  Nov-…
  Nov-…
  Nov-…
  Nov-…
  Dec-…
  Dec-…
  Dec-…
  Dec-…
  Dec-…
  Dec-…
  Dec-…
Jan-11
Jan-11
Jan-11
Jan-11
     240
                                     260
                                           280
                                                 300
                                                       320
                                                             340
                                                                   360
                                                                                                  380
                                                                                                           EMBIG spreads (basis points)

								
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