Main dataset for Ley, Keppo, "The Credits that Count: How Credit Growth and Financial Aid Affect Coll
February 2011
For additional information please contact Katharina Ley (katley@umich.edu)
Category Quantity Cost of operations Non-tuition revenue
Description Full-time equivalent HEPI index value Current fund Yale/Harvard
enrollment, all degree expenditures per endowment market
granting student value per student
institutions/#high
school grades
Source Digest of Education Digest of Education Digest of Education Harvard University
Statistics 2008, Table Statistics 2008, Table Statistics, 2008, Table Factbook, 2008-09, Yale
219 31, Commonfund 360 book of numbers
Notes 1983=100 $ $K
1976 2.645 59.65 8,388.06 109.179
1977 2.680 63.60 8,410.72 110.337
1978 2.681 68.10 8,433.38 107.037
1979 2.763 74.00 8,456.04 101.406
1980 2.909 81.65 8,478.70 98.133
1981 2.997 89.85 8,655.86 98.971
1982 3.091 96.95 8,987.53 95.556
1983 3.242 102.40 9,319.20 109.522
1984 3.288 107.80 9,650.86 118.983
1985 3.362 113.55 9,982.53 122.926
1986 3.397 118.60 10,385.20 151.390
1987 3.377 123.55 10,699.16 177.896
1988 3.431 129.50 10,855.76 183.871
1989 3.668 136.80 10,957.11 182.896
1990 3.929 144.50 11,021.73 186.482
1991 4.168 150.85 11,054.75 183.600
1992 4.210 155.70 11,146.74 184.406
1993 4.187 160.60 11,422.95 197.984
1994 4.153 165.70 11,750.52 213.884
1995 4.103 170.55 11,991.40 231.880
1996 4.086 175.70 12,217.89 269.771
1997 3.993 181.55 12,581.53 324.666
1998 3.917 186.90 13,097.61 381.262
1999 3.914 193.00 13,664.01 421.408
2000 3.967 201.70 14,336.99 496.258
2001 4.089 210.75 15,030.70 541.756
2002 4.164 218.10 15,707.21 514.565
2003 4.181 226.35 16,499.41 512.236
2004 4.221 235.65 17,353.85 558.925
2005 4.235 245.80 18,270.53 625.429
2006 4.195 256.05 19,249.45 695.855
2007 4.171 266.75 20,290.60 800.919
Notes:
All dollar values are in 1983 dollars
Data represents aggregate values across institutions of higher education unless otherwise indicated
Case Schiller Home price index assumes linear growth between 1976 and 1987, based on the growth rate from 1987-1996
Financial aid to schools values in 2001-2003 are based on the sum of support for public and private schools reported in Digest
The fraction of the population with a bachelor's degree is assumed to grow linearly 1976 to 1979 and 1981 to 1984
Federal work study award values are discounted by 11% prior to 1996 from reported values to reflect that these are commitm
Current fund expenditures per student assume linear growth between 1976 and 1979 as well as between 1981 and 1974. 199
Harvard endowment values between 1975 and 1977 assume linear growth at the same rate as 1978 to 1982
Harvard enrollment values assume linear growth from 1975 to 1987 at the growth rate experienced from 1988 to 1981
Yale endowment values assume linear growth from 1976 to 1987 at the same rate as 1988 to 1992
Yale and Harvard values are used for endowment information because their investment models are used by other schools and
owth and Financial Aid Affect College Tuition and Fees"
Financial aid to schools College benefit
Yale endowment Donations (voluntary Donations and average Total government support per Earnings difference,
spending per student support) per student endowment spending student (bachelor's or higher -
(market value) per student (based on high school)
Yale endowment
spending)
Harvard University Digest of Education Digest of Education Statistics US Census, CPS, Table A-
Factbook, 2008-09, Yale Statistics 2008, Table 2008, Tables 348, 349, 353 3. Mean Earnings of
book of numbers 358 Workers 18 Years and
Over, by Educational
Attainment, Race,
Hispanic Origin, and Sex:
1975 to 2007
$k $k $K $ $
5.8500 0.5480 6.3980 4,443.65 6,090.99
5.3623 0.5796 5.9419 4,520.26 6,253.11
4.9425 0.6099 5.5524 4,543.29 6,013.00
4.4857 0.5979 5.0835 4,528.41 6,038.77
3.9793 0.5570 4.5364 4,417.35 5,999.62
3.6628 0.5549 4.2177 4,302.69 5,867.76
3.5728 0.5905 4.1634 4,245.20 6,052.58
3.6314 0.6369 4.2683 4,350.24 6,439.79
3.5510 0.6934 4.2444 4,561.05 6,406.98
3.6303 0.7360 4.3664 4,843.34 7,288.12
3.9700 0.7731 4.7431 5,113.52 7,729.47
4.2999 0.7859 5.0858 5,258.29 7,545.29
4.8272 0.7860 5.6132 5,419.34 7,726.76
5.3124 0.7717 6.0842 5,555.80 8,264.60
5.5962 0.7602 6.3564 5,563.66 7,916.63
6.0170 0.7454 6.7625 5,574.65 6,974.67
6.4834 0.7619 7.2453 5,628.65 7,095.70
7.0164 0.7885 7.8049 5,648.41 7,797.10
7.7108 0.8106 8.5214 5,752.73 7,886.60
8.2981 0.8571 9.1552 5,835.17 7,523.55
8.9842 0.9197 9.9039 5,867.21 7,975.87
9.9841 1.0096 10.9937 6,000.19 8,400.77
11.3248 1.1124 12.4372 6,246.56 9,033.57
12.8344 1.1957 14.0301 6,554.70 9,296.53
14.0328 1.2215 15.2544 7,010.72 9,916.54
15.7253 1.1542 16.8795 7,510.92 9,778.80
18.6653 1.0706 19.7359 7,955.75 9,572.61
21.2268 1.0280 22.2548 8,306.55 9,379.66
22.6271 1.0180 23.6451 8,492.47 9,282.64
23.9558 1.0395 24.9953 8,470.42 9,632.30
25.6226 1.0686 26.6913 8,478.63 9,541.96
27.4170 1.0734 28.4904 8,504.55 9,283.03
rwise indicated
d on the growth rate from 1987-1996
blic and private schools reported in Digest of Education Statistics Tables 349 and 350. We assume a linear growth rate in the percentage of financial aid g
1976 to 1979 and 1981 to 1984
d values to reflect that these are commitment rather than disbursement values
79 as well as between 1981 and 1974. 1997 to 2001 values are based on regression estimation from public expenditures. We assume quadratic growth b
me rate as 1978 to 1982
ate experienced from 1988 to 1981
as 1988 to 1992
ent models are used by other schools and for data availability reasons
Household credit Household wealth Financial aid to students
% population with Unemployment rate Household debt Per capita disposable Case-Shiller Home price Federal grants per
bachelor's degree income index (non-seasonally student
adjusted, real)
Digest of Education Bureau of Labor Federal Reserve, Flow of BEA, National Income S&P/Case-Shiller Home The College Board 2009
Statistics 2008, Table 8 Statistics, Current Funds Accounts of the and Product Accounts Price Indices, U.S. Trends in Student Aid,
Population Survey United States, Table D.3 Table, Table 2.1. national values Table 1
% persons 25 and % of 16+ civilian $ MM $ 1983= 100 $
older noninstitutional
labor force
0.1468 0.07701 173.14 10,496 1.46 3,160.1
0.1530 0.07061 185.64 10,749 1.41 3,647.6
0.1593 0.06066 203.08 11,074 1.35 4,281.0
0.1655 0.05848 207.10 10,959 1.25 5,772.5
0.1714 0.07141 192.10 10,672 1.13 7,642.7
0.1761 0.07613 183.93 10,700 1.05 7,816.8
0.1808 0.09689 179.68 10,767 1.01 6,986.5
0.1855 0.09607 189.71 11,140 1.00 7,763.4
0.1902 0.07520 208.94 11,773 0.99 8,378.5
0.1939 0.07199 236.70 11,999 0.97 8,350.0
0.1954 0.06990 255.41 12,354 0.98 8,442.9
0.1998 0.06194 262.77 12,452 0.96 9,934.0
0.2051 0.05508 271.84 12,854 1.00 10,077.9
0.2116 0.05270 275.13 13,011 1.02 9,761.5
0.2131 0.05599 275.73 13,010 0.98 9,633.1
0.2142 0.06830 268.27 12,872 0.93 10,103.5
0.2148 0.07504 272.11 13,140 0.91 10,422.6
0.2195 0.06920 282.43 13,086 0.89 13,686.2
0.2240 0.06101 296.49 13,278 0.89 16,070.9
0.2312 0.05596 308.35 13,432 0.88 17,553.8
0.2364 0.05402 315.77 13,611 0.88 18,731.7
0.2399 0.04944 322.49 13,866 0.89 19,254.8
0.2458 0.04511 339.49 14,438 0.93 19,627.2
0.2531 0.04219 351.91 14,619 0.98 20,136.0
0.2571 0.03992 361.34 15,066 1.03 20,363.2
0.2623 0.04732 368.71 15,136 1.09 21,613.5
0.2685 0.05783 383.78 15,452 1.17 24,378.9
0.2733 0.05989 406.94 15,655 1.26 27,574.5
0.2767 0.05529 430.64 16,033 1.40 29,574.0
0.2771 0.05083 455.65 16,036 1.56 30,316.4
0.2818 0.04623 478.02 16,447 1.59 30,806.4
0.2890 0.04622 481.68 16,613 1.47 33,876.9
wth rate in the percentage of financial aid going to public schools from 2004-2007. We assume linear growth in 207 based on observations from 2004 to
enditures. We assume quadratic growth between 2002 and 2007 based on best fit from historical data
al aid to students Institutional aid Tuition Interest rate
Avg federal loans per Federal work study per Institutional grants per Avg tuition and fees (all Real interest rate
student student student institutions) per (Treasury interest rate -
student change in CPI)
The College Board 2009 The College Board 2009 The College Board 2009 Digest of Education Federal Reserve interest
Trends in Student Aid, Trends in Student Aid, Trends in Student Aid, Statistics 2008, Table rates
Table 1 Table 1 Table 1 331
$ $ $ $ Market rate on US
1 yr investment
373.12 72.416 261.77 1,544.32 0.00118
404.48 83.823 250.02 1,574.71 -0.00423
474.85 83.380 242.84 1,577.54 0.00749
592.27 84.934 237.50 1,539.58 -0.00700
760.59 84.596 229.10 1,487.52 -0.01499
857.48 75.529 219.23 1,510.04 0.04484
814.11 66.403 220.18 1,597.13 0.06109
804.56 66.008 239.16 1,711.10 0.06368
901.61 67.027 270.58 1,813.27 0.06593
935.24 63.199 297.32 1,936.03 0.04859
926.34 60.072 328.20 2,049.75 0.04591
995.53 56.478 355.53 2,099.48 0.03120
1,057.23 52.800 361.93 2,162.13 0.03513
1,014.19 49.926 383.22 2,216.46 0.03712
971.34 50.313 444.06 2,240.05 0.02487
952.48 49.573 488.42 2,313.42 0.01652
983.36 49.080 531.14 2,424.32 0.00880
1,164.52 48.434 581.06 2,541.31 0.00436
1,437.81 46.453 624.11 2,655.78 0.02759
1,626.74 45.022 660.41 2,750.17 0.03106
1,730.86 48.496 689.03 2,836.89 0.02567
1,789.28 50.965 728.09 2,903.09 0.03336
1,817.12 53.683 779.91 2,996.24 0.03492
1,816.73 51.807 825.27 3,076.51 0.02871
1,797.24 49.586 842.39 3,082.22 0.02749
1,783.82 48.837 822.27 3,112.28 0.00644
1,864.86 49.331 801.52 3,237.55 0.00419
2,047.41 48.761 828.43 3,426.69 -0.01039
2,197.85 46.089 872.23 3,634.23 -0.00773
2,268.44 42.910 914.44 3,769.48 0.00232
2,280.17 40.009 955.91 3,892.30 0.01714
2,346.54 37.898 982.15 4,002.31 0.01682
n observations from 2004 to 2006