Docstoc

Monte Carlo Simulation in Business Plans

Document Sample
Monte Carlo Simulation in Business Plans Powered By Docstoc
					     A                   B                C                     D                  E
1
2        Monte Carlo Simulation: Business Plan of a Mobile Game
3        Quantitative Risk Analysis
4
5                                         Worst Case            Best Case
6
7        Implementation [€]                      20,000               8,000
8        Maintenance [€]                         10,000               4,000
9        Marketing Cost [€]                      25,000               5,000
10       Incentives [€]                          15,000               5,000
11       Outgoing SMS [€]                         1,500             120,000
12       Expenses [€]                            71,500             142,000
13
14       Number Of Users                       5,000.00        100,000.00
15       Number Of Outgoing SMS                    5.00             30.00
16       Unit Price Of SMS-MT [c]                  6.00              4.00
17       Unit Price Of Premium SMS [€]             0.59              0.59
18       Percentage [%]                           50.00             50.00
19       Number Of Extra SMS-MT                    3.00              3.00
20       Revenue [€]                              7,375          885,000
21
22       Profit [€]                           -64,125.00       743,000.00
23
24
25                                                                            Assumption
26                                                                            Forecast
27
28
29       Simulation:
30       Average expected expenses         91,813.82
31       Average expected revenue         317,189.68
32       Average expected profit          225,375.86
33
34       Quantile der Variablen Gewinn                                        Quantile der Variablen Kosten
35                                   0%   -35,337.94                                    0%
36                                  10%    20,493.56                                   10%
37                                  20%    63,693.42                                   20%
38                                  30%   104,009.49                                   30%
39                                  40%   146,606.25                                   40%
40                                  50%   190,056.77                                   50%
41                                  60%   240,927.66                                   60%
42                                  70%   310,464.50                                   70%
43                                  80%   377,725.39                                   80%
44                                  90%   484,888.23                                   90%
45                                 100%   725,850.95                                 100%
46
47
48
49                                                     Überschreitungswahrscheinlichkeit: Gewinn
50
51          800,000.00
52
            700,000.00
53
54          600,000.00
      A     600,000.00 B                                        C                              D                        E
55
56          500,000.00
57          400,000.00
58
59          300,000.00
60          200,000.00
61
62          100,000.00
63                 0.00
64




                                              12%
                                                    15%




                                                                      24%
                                                                            27%
                                                                                  30%
                                                                                        33%




                                                                                                          42%
                                                                                                                45%
                                                                                                                      48%
                                                                                                                            51%
                                                                                                                                  54%
                               3%
                                    6%
                                         9%




                                                          18%
                                                                21%




                                                                                              36%
                                                                                                    39%
                          0%
65          -100,000.00
66
67
68
69        Überschreitungswahrscheinlichkeit für Gewinn           SMS to break even Anzahl User
70                                    0%              725,850.95          2739810       99990
71                                    1%              654,689.54          2528448       98930
72                                    2%              631,836.86          2440550       98204
73                                    3%              604,953.10          2379276       97070
74                                    4%              592,038.80          2297880       96122
75                                    5%              573,058.75          2206316       95280
76                                    6%              560,301.63          2141328       94069
77                                    7%              531,507.45          2080925       93114
78                                    8%              520,356.44          2012516       92384
79                                    9%              506,864.40          1931514       91286
80                                  10%               484,888.23          1874178       90356
81                                  11%               471,705.23          1807764       89471
82                                  12%               452,597.35          1745205       88365
83                                  13%               441,326.94          1696175       87672
84                                  14%               433,318.71          1651980       86763
85                                  15%               421,998.48          1630725       85765
86                                  16%               410,750.02          1593536       84819
87                                  17%               402,621.60          1556832       84083
88                                  18%               395,755.33          1536384       83056
89                                  19%               388,896.35          1509875       82238
90                                  20%               377,725.39          1478272       81199
91                                  21%               369,873.84          1448753       80098
92                                  22%               364,723.93          1427970       79292
93                                  23%               359,120.25          1396125       78386
94                                  24%               351,227.44          1372252       77453
95                                  25%               343,894.20          1347318       76534
96                                  26%               336,578.92          1312220       75400
97                                  27%               329,370.75          1289708       74439
98                                  28%               324,022.91          1261204       73829
99                                  29%               318,248.05          1233234       72720
100                                 30%               310,464.50          1214055       71684
101                                 31%               298,808.67          1192590       70829
102                                 32%               290,743.12          1158873       69716
103                                 33%               285,655.00          1129854       68835
104                                 34%               282,040.97          1105440       68208
105                                 35%               274,901.75          1086969       67023
106                                 36%               267,113.92          1062369       66110
107                                 37%               259,145.02          1038024       65308
108                                 38%               252,602.45          1013310       64170
109                                 39%               245,968.39           989580       63298
      A   B         C             D            E
110           40%    240,927.66       968344    62353
111           41%    236,838.37       946842    61319
112           42%    231,419.60       919440    60417
113           43%    225,233.81       892278    59470
114           44%    219,824.68       871635    58341
115           45%    215,490.98       847260    57618
116           46%    210,610.59       829236    56491
117           47%    205,449.60       801675    55591
118           48%    199,183.17       786480    54776
119           49%    195,169.60       766429    53738
120           50%    190,056.77       753550    52653
121           51%    186,268.79       733896    51900
122           52%    182,831.48       715461    50847
123           53%    177,065.16       695865    49920
124           54%    172,165.23       684403    49255
125           55%    167,710.40       666825    48038
126           56%    162,420.58       656727    47189
127           57%    158,681.68       643041    46450
128           58%    154,599.07       629436    45338
129           59%    150,096.16       613200    44287
130           60%    146,606.25       598016    43575
131           61%    143,094.80       581614    42288
132           62%    139,502.76       566712    41532
133           63%    134,893.70       558492    40442
134           64%    131,590.72       545776    39471
135           65%    126,261.68       534160    38583
136           66%    121,157.17       524664    37585
137           67%    116,937.98       512106    36684
138           68%    113,717.23       493116    35856
139           69%    110,163.15       471639    34806
140           70%    104,009.49       462420    33805
141           71%     97,959.12       452130    33216
142           72%     93,645.80       443696    32126
143           73%     90,689.12       433566    30979
144           74%     87,690.46       423335    30124
145           75%     83,440.56       401004    28977
146           76%     78,996.00       385784    28087
147           77%     74,262.14       376460    27535
148           78%     71,550.52       363138    26343
149           79%     69,011.38       353388    25413
150           80%     63,693.42       343538    24502
151           81%     60,008.55       329517    23418
152           82%     55,817.55       312590    22467
153           83%     50,988.83       300685    21744
154           84%     47,499.18       291320    20531
155           85%     43,773.82       279490    19683
156           86%     40,504.82       266760    18657
157           87%     34,846.43       249864    17576
158           88%     30,999.32       235606    16796
159           89%     26,156.28       222326    15590
160           90%     20,493.56       208638    14718
161           91%     14,616.93       188111    13949
162           92%      9,176.82       174006    12779
163           93%      4,517.79       161694    11759
164           94%      1,709.56       144347    11020
      A   B          C                D            E
165            95%        -1,327.72       132570       9858
166            96%        -5,035.54       118195       9001
167            97%        -9,171.25       105927       7915
168            98%       -14,263.00        94176       6883
169            99%       -20,355.85        69432       5993
170           100%       -35,337.94        39844       5030
                                       F              G             H               I                 J              K
                             1
                             2
                             3
                             4
                             5
                             6
                             7
                             8
                             9 Banner, Advertisement
                             10 Small and big prizes
                             11
                             12
                             13
                             14 Number of Players
                             15 The duration of the game are 30 days, # of MO is equal to # of MT
                             16
                             17 Price of SMS for the user/player
                             18 Our Revenue Share for 1 Premium SMS
                             19 Additional SMS that are sent to the user (who is the winner of the game, etc.)
                             20
                             21
                             22
                             23
                             24
                             25 Cells with Assumptions of distributed data
                             26 Quantity to be examined statistically
                             27
                             28
                             29
                             30
                             31
                             32
                             33
                             34
                  Quantile der Variablen Kosten                  Quantile der Variablen Umsatz Quantile der Vaiablen SMS
                             35         32,224.12                          0%           16,413.21               39844
                             36         55,652.00                         10%           77,207.40              208638
                             37         63,073.25                         20%         129,045.10               343538
                             38         69,250.60                         30%         175,351.54               462420
                             39         76,430.80                         40%         221,906.08               598016
                             40         84,518.06                         50%         274,010.16               753550
                             41         94,151.84                         60%         335,715.02               968344
                             42        106,235.96                         70%         415,448.21             1214055
                             43        119,338.64                         80%         499,074.51             1478272
                             44        137,589.76                         90%         622,727.01             1874178
                             45        221,173.00                        100%         889,068.35             2739810
                             46
                             47
                             48
berschreitungswahrscheinlichkeit: Gewinn
                             49
                             50
                             51
                             52
                             53
                             54
                F                      G                      H                       I           J   K
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
  54%




                    63%
                          66%
                                69%
                                      72%
                                            75%




                                                              84%
                                                                    87%
                                                                          90%
                                                                                93%
                                                                                      96%
        57%
              60%




                                                  78%
                                                        81%




                                                                                            99%
65
66
67
68
69       SMS pro User
70                 30
71                 30
72                 30
73                 30
74                 29
75                 29
76                 29
77                 29
78                 28
79                 28
80                 28
81                 28
82                 27
83                 27
84                 27
85                 27
86                 26
87                 26
88                 26
89                 26
90                 25
91                 25
92                 25
93                 25
94                 24
95                 24
96                 24
97                 24
98                 23
99                 23
100                23
101                23
102                22
103                22
104                22
105                21
106                21
107                21
108                21
109                20
      F        G   H   I   J   K
110       20
111       20
112       20
113       19
114       19
115       19
116       19
117       18
118       18
119       18
120       18
121       17
122       17
123       17
124       17
125       16
126       16
127       16
128       16
129       15
130       15
131       15
132       14
133       14
134       14
135       14
136       14
137       13
138       13
139       13
140       12
141       12
142       12
143       12
144       11
145       11
146       11
147       11
148       10
149       10
150       10
151       10
152        9
153        9
154        9
155        9
156        8
157        8
158        8
159        7
160        7
161        7
162        7
163        6
164        6
      F       G   H   I   J   K
165       6
166       6
167       5
168       5
169       5
170       5

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:18
posted:11/6/2011
language:English
pages:8