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					Project name
Spreadsheet version
Date
Amount of MCC funds



Project description




Benefit streams included in ERR




Costs included in ERR (other than costs borne
by MCC)
Estimated ERR and time horizon


Worksheets in this file
                                                                                                 Last updated: 8/31/2006




                                      Mali: Alatona Irrigation


                                          Mali: Alatona Irrigation Project
Investment memo, final
8/31/2006
$234.6 million
The Alatona Irrigation Project is focused on increasing production and productivity, increasing farmer incomes,
improving land tenure security, modernizing irrigated production systems and mitigating the uncertainty from
subsistence rain-fed agriculture. It seeks to develop newly irrigated lands, increase the “drought-proof” cropland
and the country’s total stock of fully or partially irrigated land. The Alatona Irrigation Project will introduce
innovative agricultural, land tenure, and water management practices, as well as policy and organizational
reforms aimed at realizing the ON’s potential to serve as an engine of rural growth for Mali.
Increased value-added from agricultural production
Decreased vehicle operating costs (VOCs)
Time savings for road users
Decreased maintenance cost
Decreased paddy production loss from water rationing

None

15.3% over 25 years

Project Description
One should read this sheet first, as it offers a summary of the activity, a list of components, and states the
economic rationale for the project.

ERR & Sensitivity Analysis
This worksheet highlights key assumptions and summarizes how the ERR may change due to varying costs and

Summary ERRs
Estimates the annual costs and benefits of the project and computes the resulting ERR over a 25-year time

Farm Model Assumptions
Estimates the assumptions about cropping patterns, yields and revenues for individual farms.

Project_Costs
Shows detailed cost estimates for various components of the project at the time of the investment decision.

Road Model
Calculates the annual costs and benefits, resulting from vehicle operating cost savings, time savings, decreased
maintenance costs, of the road activity.

Econ_Analysis_MSI
Projects the annual costs and benefits of main irrigation system improvements and computes 25-year ERRs for
Alatona Beneficiaries
Analyzes the project's impact on beneficiaries of the project.

Land_Financing
Estimates the annual costs and benefits of the land allocation activity.

Alatona Prod
Projects agricultural production for the Alatona region over the first seven years of the project.

Finan-Econ Prices
A table showing irrigation-related financial and economic prices and costs for farmers in the project zone.

SocialInfraRtnCalc
Models the project's returns on social infrastructure.
                                                                 Last updated: 8/31/2006


Mali: Alatona Irrigation

Project Description
Summary




Components

The Project Activities that are funded under this Project are:




Economic Rationale
Last updated: 8/31/2006
                                                                                                 Last updated: 8/31/2006


Mali: Alatona Irrigation

Project Description
Summary
   The Alatona Irrigation Project is focused on increasing production and productivity, increasing farmer incomes,
improving land tenure security, modernizing irrigated production systems and mitigating the uncertainty from
subsistence rain-fed agriculture. It seeks to develop newly irrigated lands, increase the “drought-proof” cropland
and the country’s total stock of fully or partially irrigated land. The Alatona Irrigation Project will introduce
innovative agricultural, land tenure, and water management practices, as well as policy and organizational
reforms aimed at realizing the potential of the Office du Niger to serve as an engine of rural growth for Mali.

Components

The Project Activities that are funded under this Project are:
   1. Niono – Goma Coura Road . This Project Activity will upgrade an 81 km north-south road within the
national highway
        network from its current earth/gravel condition to a paved standard. The investment will also include an
additional access
   2. Irrigation Planning and Infrastructure . This Project Activity will involve main conveyance system expansion,
Alatona
         irrigation system development, and support to the ON agency on water management.
    3. Land Allocation . The Alatona Irrigation Project will improve rural land tenure security in Mali by allocating
newly developed,
         irrigated land to family farmers, women market gardeners, and farming companies in private ownership.
These land
         recipients will purchase the land by making annual payments over a 15-20 year period. This Project
Activity consists of
    4. Resettlement, Social Infrastructure, and Social Services . This Project Activity will compensate families
residing in the
          perimeter or with rights to land therein consistent with World Bank Operational Policy 4.12 on Involuntary
Resettlement
          by offering land in the irrigation perimeter or, if the land option is not chosen, other compensation
alternatives. This
          Project Activity will provide social Activity will support a these project-affected persons and related
    5. Agricultural Services . This Projectinfrastructure, to serverange of agricultural, institutionalplus incoming
services to
          strengthen capacity and improve agricultural practice through applied agricultural research, extension and
farmer training, Services . This Project Activity will encourage agricultural lending by reducing the risks of
    6. Financial
extending credit in
        this newly developed zone, improving transparency within the existing financial system, and strengthening
the
        capabilities of local financial institutions through a credit risk sharing program, microfinance credit bureau
Economic Rationale
   The Alatona Project is estimated to generate an economic return of 15.3% based on a quantification of
incremental agricultural production, avoided reductions in rice yields in the ON resulting from the increase in
conveyance capacity of the ON’s main canal system, and lower vehicle operating costs along the Niono-Goma
Coura Road. The economic analysis aimed to quantify the direct impact of the MCC investment on value added
from agricultural production. The economic analysis has not evaluated the indirect impacts of the MCC
investment on the whole supply chain (upstream and downstream suppliers). Estimates conducted by MCC
consultants indicate that this “supply chain multiplier” could be as high as 30% of direct impacts, but no direct
evidence of this was gathered. The Alatona Project is also expected to generate non-quantified social, health, and
education improvements through investment in social infrastructure in the Alatona zone and greater access to


                                                                                              Last updated: 8/31/2006
Mali: Alatona Irrigation
ERR and sensitivity analysis
Change the "User Input" cells in the table below to see the effect on the compact's Economic Rate of Return (ERR) and
MCC estimates, click the "Reset Parameters" button at right. Be sure to reset all summary parameters to their original v
parameters.



Parameter type


Summary


Summary



Specific


Specific


Specific


Specific


Specific



0
Alatona Irrigation
nd sensitivity analysis
 e "User Input" cells in the table below to see the effect on the compact's Economic Rate of Return (ERR) and net benefits (see chart below).
mates, click the "Reset Parameters" button at right. Be sure to reset all summary parameters to their original values ("MCC Estimate" values
 s.

                                                                                                                                Paramete
              Description of key parameters
                                                                                                        User Input


              Actual costs as a percentage of estimated costs                                              100%


              Actual benefits as a percentage of estimated benefits                                        100%



              Actual crop yields as a percentage of expected crop yields                                   100%


              Project year in which farmers are connected to the system                                      3


              Actual production costs for farmers as a percentage of estimated production costs            100%


              Actual crop prices as a percentage of crop prices                                            100%


              Exchange rate (CFA franc/US$)                                                                 520




                                                                  Economic rate of return (ERR):          15.3%

                                                             MCC Estimated ERR (as of 8/31/2006):         15.3%




                                                Undiscounted annual net benefits of Alatona Irrigation Project

                     120,000

                     100,000

                       80,000
             60,000

             40,000
US$



             20,000

                  0
                      1   2   3   4     5     6    7    8    9     10     11    12     13     14   15   16   17
            -20,000
            -40,000
            -60,000
            -80,000
                                                                                       Year




                                            Distribution of ERR Given Uncertainty in Key Parameters
                                                                   (as of 8/31/2006)

            500

            450

            400

            350
Frequency




            300

            250

            200

            150

            100

            50

              0
              13.3%                   14.3%                      15.3%                        16.3%


                  Although the above distributional figure was not part of the Investment Memorandum (IM) ERR calculati
                                it reflects the best information available on parameters as of the IM (8/31/2006)
                                                                                2

                                                                                3
                                                                                4
                                                      Last updated: 8/31/2006   5

and net benefits (see chart below). To reset all values to the default
 al values ("MCC Estimate" values) before changing specific


                      Parameter values
                                                                                        All summary
                                                        Values used in
                MCC Estimate        Plausible range                                 parameters set to initial
                                                       ERR computation
                                                                                           values?

                    100%              80 - 120%               100%                             Y


                    100%              80 - 120%               100%                             Y



                     100%              80 - 120%              100%                   More Info


                       3                  2-5                    3                   Project Description


                     100%              80 - 120%              100%                   User's Guide


                     100%              80 - 120%              100%


                      520              400 - 550               520




Irrigation Project
         17   18   19   20   21    22   23   24   25




                   17.3%                18.2%


Memorandum (IM) ERR calculation,
 of the IM (8/31/2006)
Economic Analysis                                                                     ERR
Model Based on Economic Prices                                                                                                                    Revised IRR Calculations
                                                                                                                                                  (All cost/benefit figures in $'000)
0
Costs, Benefits, Net Benefit Scenarios, ERRs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Years
                                                                                         1          2           3           4           5              6            7           8          9          10         11         12             13         14         15       16         17         18         19         20
                                 Costs                               Sub-Total
A. Alatona Irrigation Project
    1. Niono - Goma Coura Road
         a. Niono-Diabaly Road (Section I)                                  20,076      -5,143      -9,970      -4,847           -58        -58
         b. Diabaly-Goma Coura Road (Section II)                              9,263     -2,034      -4,472      -2,632           -63        -63
         c. Road O&M                                                          4,000          0           0           0             0          0             -38          -38         -38        -38        -38        -38        -38            -38        -38   -3,269        -38        -38        -38        -38        -38
    2. Irrigation and Planning Infrastructure
         a. Main System Capacity Enhancement                                  3,327       -970      -2,263           0         -19         -75
         b. Alatona Main System Works                                       35,156      -2,899      -9,214     -15,312      -6,931        -800
         c. Alatona Distribution Network Works                              66,185           0     -13,704     -19,693     -25,314      -7,475
         d. Alatona Main System O&M                                           1,276          0           0        -212        -424        -640             -640         -640        -640       -640     -640       -640       -640          -640        -640       -640     -640       -640       -640       -640       -640
         e. Alatona Distribution System O&M                                       0          0           0           0           0           0                0            0           0          0        0          0          0             0           0          0        0          0          0          0          0
         f. Support to Water Management                                       2,050       -170        -555      -1,090        -185         -50
    3. Land Allocation
         a. Land Parcel Creation                                                650            0        -250        -200        -200        0
         b. Land Rights Education                                             1,500         -200        -400        -400        -250     -250
         c. Registration System Upgrade                                         500          -50        -150        -100        -100     -100
         d. Land Parcel Allocation and Titling                                  650            0        -200        -150        -150     -150
         e. Land Revenue Collection and Management                              200            0        -100        -100           0        0
    4. Social Infrastructure, Social Services, Resettlement and Settlement
         a. Presettlement                                                     1,273       -307        -462        -448         -33         -25
         b. Social Infrastructure                                           15,701      -2,166      -3,938      -3,890      -3,030      -2,677
         c. Health Sector Interventions                                       3,061       -543        -846        -814        -429        -429
    5. Agricultural Services
         a. Support for Farmer Organizations                                  5,201        -87        -157      -1,313      -1,670      -1,975
         b. Agricultural Extension and Farmer Training                        1,928       -170        -286        -386        -486        -600
         c. Applied Agricultural Research                                     5,450     -1,450      -1,450      -1,250        -650        -650
    6. Financial Services
         a. Loan Partial Guarantee Program                                    6,400            0        -200    -1,400      -2,100      -2,700
         b. Credit Bureau Strengthening                                         200          -40        -100       -60           0           0
         c. Financial Institution Capacity Building                             750         -100        -200      -200        -150        -100
         d. Support to Farmers                                                  240            0           0       -80         -80         -80
B. Project Administration and M&E
    1. Monitoring and Evaluation                                              2,736       -837        -290        -365        -393        -851
    2. Project Management                                                   20,861      -4,574      -4,072      -4,128      -4,016      -4,072
Total Costs
    Physical Contingencies                                                  26,979      -2,871      -8,060      -7,709      -5,916      -2,423
Total Costs                                                                235,612     -24,609     -61,337     -66,777     -52,648     -26,242             -678         -678        -678       -678     -678       -678       -678          -678        -678     -3,909     -678       -678       -678       -678       -678


Percent of Irrigable Land Irrigated By Year                                                  0%          0%         85%         90%      95%           100%         100%         100%      100%       100% Assumed to be 100%

                          VA of ON Agricultural Production
Rainy Season Paddy - 1st 5300 ha.                                                                         0     2,503       3,263       4,111          5,052        5,139        5,139      5,139      5,139      5,139      5,139         5,139       5,139      5,139    5,139      5,139      5,139      5,139      5,139
Rainy Season Other - 1st 5300 ha                                                                          0       346         414         474            538          565          565        565        565        565        565           565         565        565      565        565        565        565        565
Dry Season Production -1st 5300 ha.                                                                                 0       1,847       2,487          3,116        3,529        4,055      4,055      4,055      4,055      4,055         4,055       4,055      4,055    4,055      4,055      4,055      4,055      4,055
RS Paddy - 2nd 5300 ha.                                                                                             0       2,253       3,099          4,111        5,052        5,139      5,139      5,139      5,139      5,139         5,139       5,139      5,139    5,139      5,139      5,139      5,139      5,139
RS Other - 2nd 5300 ha.                                                                                             0         311         393            474          538          565        565        565        565        565           565         565        565      565        565        565        565        565
DS Production - 2nd 5300 ha.                                                                                                    0       1,754          2,487        3,116        3,529      4,055      4,055      4,055      4,055         4,055       4,055      4,055    4,055      4,055      4,055      4,055      4,055
RS Paddy - 3rd 5400 ha                                                                                                          0       2,378          3,263        4,111        5,052      5,139      5,139      5,139      5,139         5,139       5,139      5,139    5,139      5,139      5,139      5,139      5,139
RS Other - 3 rd 5400 ha                                                                                                         0         329            414          474          538        565        565        565        565           565         565        565      565        565        565        565        565
DS Production - 3rd 5400 ha                                                                                                                 0          1,847        2,487        3,116      3,529      4,055      4,055      4,055         4,055       4,055      4,055    4,055      4,055      4,055      4,055      4,055
Rainy Season Benefits                                                                         0           0     2,849       6,240      10,784         13,852       15,879       16,998     17,111     17,111     17,111     17,111        17,111      17,111     17,111   17,111     17,111     17,111     17,111     17,111
Dry Season Benefits                                                                           0           0         0       1,847       4,241          7,449        9,131       10,700     11,640     12,166     12,166     12,166        12,166      12,166     12,166   12,166     12,166     12,166     12,166     12,166
Total ON Benefits                                                                             0           0     2,849       8,087      15,025         21,301       25,011       27,698     28,750     29,277     29,277     29,277        29,277      29,277     29,277   29,277     29,277     29,277     29,277     29,277

                Incremental ON VA (ON Production + Supply Chain)
Incremental RS Benefits                                                                       0           0     2,422       5,304       9,166         11,774       13,498       14,448     14,544     14,544     14,544     14,544        14,544      14,544     14,544   14,544     14,544     14,544     14,544     14,544
Incremental DS Benefits                                                                       0           0         0       1,570       3,605          6,332        7,762        9,095      9,894     10,341     10,341     10,341        10,341      10,341     10,341   10,341     10,341     10,341     10,341     10,341
Incremental Social Infrastructure Benefits                                                    0           0         0           0           0              0            0            0          0          0          0          0             0           0          0        0          0          0          0          0
Incremental Social Infrastructure From Guarantee Fund                                                                                                      0            0            0          0          0          0          0             0           0          0        0          0          0          0          0
Incremental ON Benefits                                                                       0           0     2,422       6,874      12,771         18,106       21,259       23,543     24,438     24,886     24,886     24,886        24,886      24,886     24,886   24,886     24,886     24,886     24,886     24,886

                  Incremental Niono - Goma Coura Road VA
Incremental Road Benefits                                                                    62          62          62     2,330       2,663          2,950        3,289        3,514      3,694      3,828      3,972      4,121         4,276       4,438      4,606    4,781      4,964      5,153      5,351      5,557

Total Incremental Benefits                                                                   62          62     2,483       9,204      15,434         21,056       24,548       27,057     28,132     28,714     28,857     29,006        29,162      29,323     29,492   29,667     29,849     30,039     30,237     30,442

Net Benefit Stream                                                    ERR
Total Inc. Benefits-Total Costs - Alatona + Road                     9.0%              -24,547     -61,276     -64,293     -43,444     -10,808        20,378       23,870       26,379     27,453     28,035     28,179     28,328        28,483      28,645     25,582   28,988     29,171     29,360     29,558     29,764
Total Inc.Benefits-Total Costs - Alatona + Road + MSI                15.3%             -30,547     -67,276     -64,293     -43,444     -10,808        20,378       35,345       37,854     50,403     50,985     62,604     62,753        62,908      63,070     60,007   63,413     63,596     63,785     63,983     64,189
Beneficiary and Farming System Assumptions                                  Redundant tables were hidden rather than deleted.
Assuming 16,000 hectares
of net irrigation after allowance for roads etc.                                July 2006 - Consensus Figures ON, MCC, MCA and CDM

                     ON Farms by Size                          Woodlot Assumptions by Farm Size
Size (Ha)                  Number Total HA           % Land Note           Farm       Number                                        Total
5                              400        2,000      12.5%     New Settlers (Ha)
                                                                           Size         HH's                    HA/hh                HA
5                              800        4,000      25.0%     Resettled
10                             500        5,000      31.3%
30                              70        2,100      13.1%
60                              48        2,900      18.1%
Total                         1818       16,000      100.0%
% of Farms < 30 Ha             68.8%
Farms of size 60 ha above actually range from 30 ha to 120 ha, with average of 60 ha.

Total Irrigable Area/10 Ha                                                                                                   Source Table for Alternative Steady State Intensity and Diversification         Source Table for Alternative Steady State Intensity and Diversification
                                 Crop Mix Assumptions                                                                                 Mixes (per Ha)                July 2006 Options                        Mixes (per Ha)
                                                                                                                                               Low Case        No Rice in         July 2006                                  1st Year for Scenarios Not 1st Year for 2nd Ag
                               Yr 1        Yr 2        Yr 3         Yr 4          Yr 5                          Crops         Start Point                                                                        Crops
Crops                                                                                                                                           (110%)         DS (Base) Appraisal (High)                                    Based on 2nd Ag DD Trip        DD Trip Scenario
Rainy season Paddy             86%        87%          89%         90%            92%                   Rainy season Paddy       86%              92%             92%                92%                     Rainy season Paddy          99%                        86%
DS Wheat                        0%         0%           0%          0%             0%                   DS Wheat                  0%               0%              0%                 0%                     DS Wheat                     0%                         0%
RS Maize                        8%         8%           8%          8%             8%                   RS Maize                  8%               8%              8%                 8%                     RS Maize                     0%                         8%
Dry Season Paddy               10%         8%           5%          3%             0%                   Dry Season Paddy         10%               0%              0%                 5%                     Dry Season Paddy            10%                        10%
DS Maize                        2%         2%           2%          3%             3%                   DS Maize                  2%               3%              3%                 3%                     DS Maize                     2%                         2%
DS Shallots                     3%         5%           6%          8%             9%                   DS Shallots               3%               6%              9%                 9%                     DS Shallots                  6%                         3%
DS Potato                       2%         2%           1%          1%             0%                   DS Potato                 2%               0%              0%                 0%                     DS Potato                    0%                         2%
DS Tomato/other veg.            1%         1%           2%          2%             3%                   DS Tomato/other veg.      1%               1%              3%                 3%                     DS Tomato/other veg.         3%                         1%
DS Niebe (forage)               1%         1%           1%          0%             0%                   DS Niebe (forage)         1%               0%              0%                 0%                     DS Niebe (forage)            0%                         1%
Total RS                       94%        95%          97%         98%           100%                   Total                   113%              110%            115%              120%                     Total                      121%                       113%
Total DS                       19%        18%          17%         16%            15%
     DS Cereal                   12%        10%            7%         5%              3%
     DS Non Cereal                 7%        8%           10%        11%             12%
Total                          113%       113%         114%        114%          115%
                                  0.37
In Ha                                                                                                   In Ha
                                      Projected Crop Areas By Crop By Year /a                                                                            Projected Cropped Areas by Crop By Farm Size in Steady State
Crops                            Yr 1         Yr 2         Yr 3     Yr 4           Yr 5                 Crops                         5               10             30           60          90           120                          Totals
RS Paddy                       13,728       13,976       14,224   14,472         14,720                 RS Paddy                   1,840            4,600          1,932        2,668          0            0                           11,040
DS Wheat                          0            0            0         0             0                   Wheat                         0                0              0            0           0            0                              0
RS Maize                        1,280        1,280        1,280    1,280          1,280                 RS Maize                    160              400            168          232           0            0                             960
DS Paddy                        1,600        1,200         800      400             0                   DS Paddy                      0                0              0            0           0            0                              0
DS Maize                         319          359          399      440            480                  DS Maize                     60              150             63           87           0            0                             360
Shallots (DS)                    480          720          960     1,200          1,440                 Shallots (DS)               180              450            189          261           0            0                            1,080
Potato (DS)                      320          240          160       80             0                   Potato (DS)                   0                0              0            0           0            0                              0
Tomato (DS)                      120          210          300      390            480                  Tomato (DS)                  60              150             63           87           0            0                             360
Niebe Forage (DS)                200          150          100       50             0                   Niebe For. (DS)               0                0              0            0           0            0                              0
Total                          18,047       18,135       18,223   18,312         18,400                 Total                      2,300            5,750          2,415        3,335          0            0                           13,800
/a These values are used for calculating crop VA streams, crop area will not actually be
achieved in this fashion as the land will come on-line in thirds.

                                      Yield Assumptions by Year                                                                                              Total Tons of Production by Crop /b
Crops                          Yr 1         Yr 2     Yr 3           Yr 4          Yr 5        Units                             Crops                  Yr 1              Yr 2            Yr 3          Yr 4          Yr 5
Rainy season Paddy             4.5            5       5.5             6             6         T/HA                              RS Paddy             61,775            69,879          78,231        86,831        88,319
Wheat DS                       1.5          1.8       2.1           2.4             3         T/HA                              Wheat                   0                 0               0             0             0
Maize RS                       3.8          4.2       4.5           4.8             5         T/HA                              Maize RS              4,864             5,376           5,760         6,144         6,400
Dry Season Paddy                 4          4.5        5              5             5         T/HA                              DS Paddy              6,400             5,400           4,000         2,000           0
Maize DS                       3.2          3.5       3.9           4.2           4.5         T/HA                              Maize DS              1,021             1,257           1,558         1,847         2,160
Shallots                        25           26       27             28            30         T/HA                              Shallots             12,000            18,720          25,920        33,600        43,199
Potato                          18           22       26             30            32         T/HA                              Potato                5,760             5,280           4,160         2,400           0
Tomato/other veg.               18           19       20             22            24         T/HA                              Tomato/other veg. 2,160                 3,990           6,000         8,580        11,520
Niebe Hay (forage)             1.2          1.6        2              2             2         T/HA                              Niebe Hay(forage) 240                    240             200           100            0
                                                                                                                                Fish                    0                 0               0             0             0
                                                                                                                                Total (Tons)         94,219           110,142         125,828       141,501       151,598
                                                                                                                                /b Same as projected crop areas, this is used as a source table to calculate tons
                                                                                                                                of production for transport in the Alatona Prod Sheet

                                                                                              Crop Prices, Production Costs, and Net Returns/ha
                                                                      Gross Returns/HA/YR (CFA '000)                                       Net Returns/ha/yr (CFA '000)
Crops                        CFA/KG Costs/ha Gross Y1 Gross Y2                 Gross Y3 Gross Y4       Gross Y5          Net Y1         Net Y2         Net Y3         Net Y4                       Net Y5
Rainy Season Paddy              140          351        630        700           770      840             840              279           349            419             489                         489
Wheat (DS)                      180          200        270        324           378      432             540               70           124            178             232                         340
Maize RS                        160          193        608        672           720      768             800              415           479            527             575                         607
Dry Season Paddy                140          227        560        630           700      700             700              333           403            473             473                         473
Maize DS                        160          193        512        560           624      672             720              319           367            431             479                         527
Shallots                        150          952       3,750      3,900         4,050    4,200           4,500            2,798         2,948          3,098          3,248                        3,548
Potato                          200         1,919      3,600      4,400         5,200    6,000           6,400            1,681         2,481          3,281          4,081                        4,481
Tomato/other veg.                40          591        720        760           800      880             960              129           169            209             289                         369
Niebe Hay (forage)              250           97        300        400           500      500             500              203           303            403             403                         403
Prices and per ha costs (with family labor) were borrowed from Crawford files.
                                                                                                 Paddy Labor Costs as % of Total Cost                   16%
                                                                                                 Maize and Niebe Labor Cost as % of Total Cost          42%
                                                                                                 Bananas, Shallots, Potatoes, Tomatoes Labor Cost
                                                                                                                                                        45%
                                                                                                 as % of Total Cost

                                               Net Returns/ha/yr (USD)                                                                                                  Labor Costs/ha/yr (USD)
Crops                         Net Y1      Net Y2     Net Y3      Net Y4          Net Y5                 Crops                                        Yr 1            Yr 2           Yr 3         Yr 4              Yr 5
Rainy Season Paddy             537         671         806        940             940            0.00   Rainy season Paddy                           107             107            107          107               107
Wheat (DS)                     135         238         342        446             654            0.00   Wheat (DS)                                   174             174            174          174               174
Maize RS                       798         921        1,013      1,106           1,167           0.00   Maize RS                                     156             156            156          156               156
Dry Season Paddy               640         775         910        910             910            0.00   Dry Season Paddy                              69              69             69           69                69
Maize DS                       613         706         829        921            1,013           0.00   Maize DS                                     156             156            156          156               156
Shallots                      5,381       5,669       5,958      6,246           6,823           0.00   Shallots                                     828             828            828          828               828
Potato                        3,233       4,771       6,310      7,848           8,617           0.00   Potato                                      1,670           1,670          1,670        1,670             1,670
Tomato/other veg.              248         325         402        556             710            0.00   Tomato/other veg.                            514             514            514          514               514
Niebe Hay (forage)             390         583         775        775             775            0.00   Niebe Hay (forage)                           284             284            284          284               284
                                2cd145ae-9218-40c7-bcdf-85b94e3c4dc1.xls




Mali: Alatona Irrigation
Project Components by Year -- Base Costs
(US$ Million)                                              0
                                                               2007      2008      2009
A. Alatona Irrigation Project
  1. Niono - Goma Coura Road
    a. Niono-Diabaly Road (Section I)                             5.14      9.97      4.85
    b. Diabaly-Goma Coura Road (Section II)                       2.03      4.47      2.63
  Subtotal Niono - Goma Coura Road                                7.18     14.44      7.48
  2. Irrigation and Planning Infrastructure
    a. Main System Capacity Enhancement                           0.97      2.26      0.00
    b. Alatona Main System Works                                  2.90      9.21     15.31
    c. Alatona Distribution Network Works                         0.00     13.70     19.69
    d. Alatona Main System O&M                                    0.00      0.00      0.21
    f. Support to Water Management                                0.17      0.56      1.09
  Subtotal Irrigation and Planning Infrastructure                 4.04     25.74     36.31

 3. Land Allocation
   a. Land Parcel Creation                                        0.00      0.25      0.20
   b. Land Rights Education                                       0.20      0.40      0.40

   c. Registration System Upgrade                                 0.05      0.15      0.10
   d. Land Parcel Allocation and Titling                          0.00      0.20      0.15
   e. Land Revenue Collection and Management                      0.00      0.10      0.10
 Subtotal Land Allocation                                         0.25      1.10      0.95
 4. Social Infrastructure, Social Services, Resettlement
 and Settlement
   a. Presettlement                                               0.31      0.46      0.45
   b. Social Infrastructure                                       2.17      3.94      3.89
   c. Health Sector Interventions                                 0.54      0.85      0.81
 Subtotal Social Infrastructure, Social Services,
 Resettlement and Settlement                                      3.02      5.25      5.15
 5. Agricultural Services
   a. Support for Farmer Organizations                            0.09      0.16      1.31
   b. Agricultural Extension and Farmer Training                  0.17      0.29      0.39
   c. Applied Agricultural Research                               1.45      1.45      1.25
 Subtotal Agricultural Services                                   1.71      1.89      2.95
 6. Financial Services
   a. Loan Partial Guarantee Program                              0.00      0.20      1.40
   b. Credit Bureau Strengthening                                 0.04      0.10      0.06
   c. Financial Institution Capacity Building                     0.10      0.20      0.20
   d. Support to Farmers                                          0.00      0.00      0.08
 Subtotal Financial Services                                      0.14      0.50      1.74

Subtotal Alatona Irrigation Project                              16.33     48.92     54.57

B. Monitoring and Evaluation                                      0.84      0.29      0.37
C. Program Administration and Controls                            4.57      4.07      4.13




                                                    Page 17
                                          2cd145ae-9218-40c7-bcdf-85b94e3c4dc1.xls


Total BASELINE COSTS                                                           21.74   53.28   59.07

Physical Contingencies                                                          2.87    8.06    7.71
Price Contingencies                                                             0.34    2.87    4.66

Total PROJECT COSTS                                                            24.94   64.21   71.44

e. Alatona Distribution System O&M                                              0.00    0.00    0.74


The project total ignores allowance on MSI and Alatona




A. Alatona Irrigation Project
1. Niono - Goma Coura Road
a. Niono-Diabaly Road (Section I)
b. Diabaly-Goma Coura Road (Section II)
Subtotal Niono - Goma Coura Road
2. Irrigation and Planning Infrastructure
a. Main System Capacity Enhancement
b. Alatona Main System Works
c. Alatona Distribution Network Works
d. Alatona Main System O&M
f. Support to Water Management
Subtotal Irrigation and Planning Infrastructure
3. Land Allocation
a. Land Parcel Creation
b. Land Rights Education
c. Registration System Upgrade
d. Land Parcel Allocation and Titling
e. Land Revenue Collection and Management
Subtotal Land Allocation
4. Social Infrastructure, Social Services, Resettlement and Settlement
a. Presettlement
b. Social Infrastructure
c. Health Sector Interventions
Subtotal Social Infrastructure, Social Services, Resettlement and Settlement
5. Agricultural Services
a. Support for Farmer Organizations
b. Agricultural Extension and Farmer Training
c. Applied Agricultural Research
Subtotal Agricultural Services
6. Financial Services
a. Loan Partial Guarantee Program
b. Credit Bureau Strengthening



                                                            Page 18
                                             2cd145ae-9218-40c7-bcdf-85b94e3c4dc1.xls


c. Financial Institution Capacity Building
d. Support to Farmers
Subtotal Financial Services


Subtotal Alatona Irrigation Project


B. Monitoring and Evaluation
C. Program Administration and Controls


Total BASELINE COSTS


Physical Contingencies
Price Contingencies


Total PROJECT COSTS


e. Alatona Distribution System O&M



A. Alatona Irrigation Project
1. Presettlement
2. Niono - Goma Coura Road
a. Niono-Diabaly Road (Section I)
b. Diabaly-Goma Coura Road (Section II)
Subtotal Niono - Goma Coura Road
3. Irrigation and Planning Infrastructure
a. Main System Capacity Enhancement
b. Alatona Main System Works
c. Alatona Distribution Network Works
d. Alatona Main System O&M
e. Alatona Distribution System O&M
Subtotal Irrigation and Planning Infrastructure
4. Land Allocation
5. Social Infrastructure, Social Services, Resettlement and Settlement
a. Social Infrastructure
b. Health Sector Interventions
Subtotal Social Infrastructure, Social Services, Resettlement and Settlement
6. Agricultural Services
a. Agricultural Extension and Farmer Training
b. Applied Agricultural Research
c. Commodity Chain Development
Subtotal Agricultural Services
7. Financial Services
a. Loan Partial Guarantee Program
b. Credit Bureau Strengthening
c. Financial Institution Capacity Building
d. Support to Farmers
Subtotal Financial Services
8. Institutional Strenthening
a. Support for Farmer Organizations
b. Support to Water Management
Subtotal Institutional Strenthening



                                                             Page 19
                       2cd145ae-9218-40c7-bcdf-85b94e3c4dc1.xls




2010      2011      Total


   0.06      0.06      20.08
   0.06      0.06       9.26
   0.12      0.12      29.34

   0.02      0.07      3.33
   6.93      0.80     35.16
  25.31      7.47     66.19
   0.42      0.64      1.28
   0.19      0.05      2.05
  32.87      9.04    107.99


   0.20      0.00       0.65
   0.25      0.25       1.50

   0.10      0.10       0.50
   0.15      0.15       0.65
   0.00      0.00       0.20
   0.70      0.50       3.50


   0.03      0.03       1.27
   3.03      2.68      15.70
   0.43      0.43       3.06

   3.49      3.13      20.03

   1.67      1.98       5.20
   0.49      0.60       1.93
   0.65      0.65       5.45
   2.81      3.23      12.58

   2.10      2.70       6.40
   0.00      0.00       0.20
   0.15      0.10       0.75
   0.08      0.08       0.24
   2.33      2.88       7.59

  42.32     18.90    181.04

   0.39      0.85       2.74
   4.02      4.07      20.86




                                       Page 20
                                       2cd145ae-9218-40c7-bcdf-85b94e3c4dc1.xls


       46.73          23.82           204.63

        5.92           2.42            26.98
        5.02           2.66            15.56

       57.67          28.90           247.17

        1.48           2.24             4.47




                               Base Cost
2007           2008            2009               2010           2011          Total




        5.14            9.97               4.85           0.06          0.06           20.08
        2.03            4.47               2.63           0.06          0.06            9.26
        7.18           14.44               7.48           0.12          0.12           29.34


        0.97            2.26               0.00           0.02          0.07            3.33
        2.90            9.21            15.31             6.93          0.80           35.16
        0.00           13.70            19.69            25.31          7.47           66.19
        0.00            0.00               0.21           0.42          0.64            1.28
        0.17            0.56               1.09           0.19          0.05            2.05
        4.04           25.74            36.31            32.87          9.04       107.99


        0.00            0.25               0.20           0.20          0.00            0.65
        0.20            0.40               0.40           0.25          0.25            1.50
        0.05            0.15               0.10           0.10          0.10            0.50
        0.00            0.20               0.15           0.15          0.15            0.65
        0.00            0.10               0.10           0.00          0.00            0.20
        0.25            1.10               0.95           0.70          0.50            3.50


        0.31            0.46               0.45           0.03          0.03            1.27
        2.17            3.94               3.89           3.03          2.68           15.70
        0.54            0.85               0.81           0.43          0.43            3.06
        3.02            5.25               5.15           3.49          3.13           20.03


        0.09            0.16               1.31           1.67          1.98            5.20
        0.17            0.29               0.39           0.49          0.60            1.93
        1.45            1.45               1.25           0.65          0.65            5.45
        1.71            1.89               2.95           2.81          3.23           12.58


        0.00            0.20               1.40           2.10          2.70            6.40
        0.04            0.10               0.06           0.00          0.00            0.20



                                                             Page 21
                2cd145ae-9218-40c7-bcdf-85b94e3c4dc1.xls


 0.10    0.20    0.20        0.15     0.10     0.75
 0.00    0.00    0.08        0.08     0.08     0.24
 0.14    0.50    1.74        2.33     2.88     7.59


16.33   48.92   54.57       42.32    18.90   181.04


 0.84    0.29    0.37        0.39     0.85     2.74   55.7% of total M&E Costs of $4.9m
 4.57    4.07    4.13        4.02     4.07    20.86   55.7% of total Program Admin Costs of $37.4m

21.74   53.28   59.07       46.73    23.82   204.63


 2.87    8.06    7.71        5.92     2.42    26.98
 0.34    2.87    4.66        5.02     2.66    15.56


24.94   64.21   71.44       57.67    28.90   247.17


 0.00    0.00    0.74        1.48     2.24     4.47   Already in Crop Budget



 0.31    0.46    0.45        0.03     0.03     1.27


 5.14    9.97    4.85        0.06     0.06    20.08
 2.03    4.47    2.63        0.06     0.06     9.26
 7.18   14.44    7.48        0.12     0.12    29.34


 0.97    2.27    0.00        0.00     0.00     3.24
 3.04    9.62   15.86        7.21     0.80    36.53
 0.00   12.45   14.93       15.82     2.76    45.97
 0.00    0.00    0.21        0.42     0.64     1.28
                                               0.00   Already in Crop Budget
 4.01   24.34   31.01       23.45     4.20    87.01
 0.05    0.05    0.53        0.53     0.54     1.72


 2.17    3.94    3.89        3.03     2.68    15.70
 0.54    0.85    0.81        0.43     0.43     3.06
 2.71    4.78    4.70        3.46     3.11    18.76


 0.09    0.19    0.28        0.37     0.50     1.44
 1.30    1.30    1.20        0.60     0.60     5.00
 0.11    0.11    0.11        0.11     0.11     0.55
 1.50    1.60    1.59        1.08     1.21     6.99


 0.00    0.00    1.25        2.00     2.75     6.00
 0.04    0.10    0.06        0.00     0.00     0.20
 0.10    0.20    0.20        0.15     0.10     0.75
 0.00    0.00    0.08        0.08     0.08     0.24
 0.14    0.30    1.59        2.23     2.93     7.19


 0.02    0.05    0.11        0.18     0.29     0.64
 0.80    0.35    0.81        0.05     0.05     2.05
 0.82    0.39    0.92        0.22     0.34     2.69



                                Page 22
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                Page 23
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                      2cd145ae-9218-40c7-bcdf-85b94e3c4dc1.xls




min Costs of $37.4m




                                      Page 25
                                                       Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation


Mali: Alatona Irrigation
PRELIMINARY TRAFFIC PROJECTIONS

LV Traffic Growth Rate                                  1.05                   Diverted traffic as % of Normal:                        0.00             LV - VOC on existing road (FCFA/v-km):
HV Traffic Growth Rate                                  1.03                   Generated LV traffic as % of Normal:                     0.5             LV - VOC on upgraded road (FCFA/v-km):
Days/Year:                                               365                   Generated HV traffic as % of Normal:                    0.30             HV - VOC on existing road (FCFA/v-km):
National Funding of 0&M Requirements                  90.3%                                                                                             HV - VOC on upgraded road (FCFA/v-km):
                                                                                                                                                        Time savings factor (% of VOC Savings):

LV Tariff on existing road (FCFA per passenger-km)                        35 LV Elas. Factor                     1              Average Passenger Load
LV Tarriff on upgraded road (FCFA per passenger-km)                       20                                                    Average Truck Load (Tons)
HV Tariff on existing road (FCFA ton/km)                                 124 HV Elas. Factor                    0.6             LV AARV: HV AARV for Niono-Diabily
HV Tariff on upgraded road (FCFA ton/km)                                  62                                                    LV AARV: HV AARV for Diabaly Goma Coura

0

           NIONO - DIABALY SECTION                             Length:                       54                                               DIABALY - GOMA COURA SECTION
           Normal Traffic         Diverted Traffic             Induced Traffic                    AIP Traffic                                 Normal Traffic       Diverted Traffic
    Year       LV          HV          LV             HV            LV               HV                 LV            HV           Total         LV          HV         LV
      1             128        29                                                                                                       157          52         14
      2             134        30                                                                                                    164.27          55         14
      3             141        31                                                                                                  171.8861          57         15
      4             148        32            0             0              74                 10                  0          8           271          60         15             0
      5             156        33            0             0              78                 10                  0         17           293          63         16             0
      6             163        34            0             0              82                 10                  0         25           314          66         16             0
      7             172        35            0             0              86                 10                  0         35           337          70         17             0
      8             180        36            0             0              90                 11                  0         40           356          73         17             0
      9             189        37            0             0              95                 11                  0         43           374          77         18             0
     10             199        38            0             0              99                 11                  0         44           391          81         18             0
     11             208        39            0             0             104                 12                  0         45           409          85         19             0
     12             219        40            0             0             109                 12                  0         46           427          89         19             0
     13             230        41            0             0             115                 12                  0         48           446          93         20             0
     14             241        43            0             0             121                 13                  0         49           467          98         21             0
     15             253        44            0             0             127                 13                  0         51           488         103         21             0
     16             266        45            0             0             133                 14                  0         52           510         108         22             0
     17             279        47            0             0             140                 14                  0         54           533         114         22             0
     18             293        48            0             0             147                 14                  0         55           558         119         23             0
     19             308        49            0             0             154                 15                  0         57           583         125         24             0
     20             323        51            0             0             162                 15                  0         59           610         131         25             0
     21             340        52            0             0             170                 16                  0         61           638         138         25             0
                    Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation

22   357   54   0     0       178         16          0         62   667   145   26   0
23   374   56   0     0       187         17          0         64   698   152   27   0
24   393   57   0     0       197         17          0         66   730   160   28   0
25   413   59   0     0       206         18          0         68   764   168   28   0
                                                        Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation

PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC EVALUATION (In Economic Costs, FCFA Millions)


          Project         Price       Existing Niono - Diabaly VOC & Time Savings                                                 Diabaly - Goma Coura VOC & Time Savings
         Con/Main      Contingency     Maint.     Normal       Diverted     Generated               AIP             Total            Normal     Diverted   Generated       AIP
           Cost                      Spending     Traffic       Traffic       Traffic              Traffic          Traffic          Traffic     Traffic     Traffic      Traffic
 Year
   1           -4259                        32
   2          -8,568                        32
   3          -4,423                        32
   4             -49                        32          738             0               150                83               971           157          0            31             20
   5             -49                        32          768             0               157               187              1112           163          0            33             45
   6             -20                        32          799             0               163               271              1233           170          0            34             65
   7             -20                        32          832             0               170               374              1376           176          0            35             90
   8             -20                        32          866             0               178               428              1472           184          0            37            103
   9             -20                        32          901             0               186               461              1548           191          0            39            111
  10             -20                        32          939             0               194               474              1606           199          0            40            114
  11             -20                        32          977             0               202               488              1667           207          0            42            117
  12             -20                        32         1018             0               211               502              1731           215          0            44            121
  13             -20                        32         1060             0               220               518              1798           224          0            46            125
  14             -20                        32         1104             0               230               533              1867           233          0            48            128
  15           -1700                        32         1150             0               240               549              1939           242          0            50            132
  16             -20                        32         1198             0               251               566              2014           252          0            52            136
  17             -20                        32         1248             0               262               582              2092           263          0            54            140
  18             -20                        32         1300             0               273               600              2174           273          0            56            144
  19             -20                        32         1355             0               285               618              2258           285          0            59            149
  20             -20                        32         1412             0               298               636              2347           296          0            61            153
  21             -20                        32         1472             0               311               656              2439           309          0            64            158
  22             -20                        32         1534             0               325               675              2534           322          0            67            163
  23             -20                        32         1599             0               340               695              2634           335          0            70            167
  24             -20                        32         1667             0               355               716              2738           349          0            73            172
  25             -20                        32         1738             0               371               738              2846           363          0            76            178
TOTAL        -19428              0         800        25674             0              5371             11351             42396          5407          0          1109           2733




PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC EVALUATION (In Economic Costs, Dollars)

        Project        Price       Existing      Niono - Diabaly VOC & Time Savings                                               Diabaly - Goma Coura VOC & Time Savings
        Con/Main       Contingency Maint.        Normal       Diverted     Generated          AIP               Total             Normal       Diverted  Generated     AIP
        Cost                       Spending      Traffic      Traffic      Traffic            Traffic           Traffic           Traffic      Traffic   Traffic       Traffic
Year
                                                       Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation

      1    -8,190,615           0      61,538            0        0              0            0               0             0   0           0           0
      2   -16,476,135           0      61,538            0        0              0            0               0             0   0           0           0
      3    -8,505,442           0      61,538            0        0              0            0               0             0   0           0           0
      4       -94,831           0      61,538    1,418,662        0        288,734      160,395       1,867,791       301,781   0      60,120      38,614
      5       -94,831           0      61,538    1,476,409        0        301,192      360,386       2,137,986       313,805   0      62,666      86,759
      6       -38,462           0      61,538    1,536,647        0        314,215      520,720       2,371,582       326,338   0      65,326     125,358
      7       -38,462           0      61,538    1,599,490        0        327,827      719,506       2,646,823       339,403   0      68,105     173,214
      8       -38,462           0      61,538    1,665,055        0        342,057      823,174       2,830,287       353,024   0      71,007     198,172
      9       -38,462           0      61,538    1,733,467        0        356,934      887,082       2,977,482       367,225   0      74,040     213,557
    10        -38,462           0      61,538    1,804,853        0        372,487      910,767       3,088,108       382,033   0      77,209     219,259
    11        -38,462           0      61,538    1,879,351        0        388,750      938,090       3,206,191       397,475   0      80,521     225,836
    12        -38,462           0      61,538    1,957,101        0        405,755      966,233       3,329,088       413,579   0      83,981     232,612
    13        -38,462           0      61,538    2,038,252        0        423,537      995,220       3,457,008       430,376   0      87,598     239,590
    14        -38,462           0      61,538    2,122,959        0        442,133    1,025,076       3,590,168       447,895   0      91,378     246,778
    15     -3,269,231           0      61,538    2,211,386        0        461,581    1,055,829       3,728,795       466,171   0      95,329     254,181
    16        -38,462           0      61,538    2,303,702        0        481,922    1,087,503       3,873,128       485,237   0      99,459     261,806
    17        -38,462           0      61,538    2,400,086        0        503,198    1,120,129       4,023,413       505,129   0     103,777     269,661
    18        -38,462           0      61,538    2,500,726        0        525,454    1,153,732       4,179,912       525,884   0     108,290     277,750
    19        -38,462           0      61,538    2,605,817        0        548,734    1,188,344       4,342,896       547,542   0     113,009     286,083
    20        -38,462           0      61,538    2,715,564        0        573,090    1,223,995       4,512,648       570,144   0     117,944     294,665
    21        -38,462           0      61,538    2,830,182        0        598,570    1,260,715       4,689,466       593,733   0     123,103     303,505
    22        -38,462           0      61,538    2,949,896        0        625,229    1,298,536       4,873,661       618,353   0     128,498     312,611
    23        -38,462           0      61,538    3,074,941        0        653,123    1,337,492       5,065,557       644,053   0     134,140     321,989
    24        -38,462           0      61,538    3,205,566        0        682,311    1,377,617       5,265,494       670,881   0     140,041     331,649
    25        -38,462           0      61,538    3,342,028        0        712,854    1,418,945       5,473,828       698,889   0     146,213     341,598
TOTAL     -37,361,854           0   1,538,462   49,372,138        0     10,329,686   21,829,487      81,531,311    10,398,949   0   2,131,756   5,255,247




Alatona Projection, Price Contigency, Maintenance Savings                                         ON Model is     Base Case
(1: Consultant; 2: MCC Parameters; 3: MCC Parameters                            2
w/o Alatona)
Exchange Rate                                                                 520
                                                                                Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation




existing road (FCFA/v-km):                                  244
upgraded road (FCFA/v-km):                                  144
existing road (FCFA/v-km):                                  738
upgraded road (FCFA/v-km):                                  332
factor (% of VOC Savings):                                1.352

                          12
                          12                    ON Model is              Base Case
                         0.0
                           0




                                                Length:              26
 Diverted Traffic                Induced Traffic                  AIP Traffic
                    HV                LV             HV            LV    HV Total
                                                                                     66
                                                                                  69.02
                                                                                72.1826
                             0             30                 5      0      4       114
                             0             32                 5      0      9       124
                             0             33                 5      0     13       133
                             0             35                 5      0     17       144
                             0             37                 5      0     20       152
                             0             38                 5      0     21       160
                             0             40                 5      0     22       167
                             0             42                 6      0     23       174
                             0             44                 6      0     23       182
                             0             47                 6      0     24       190
                             0             49                 6      0     25       198
                             0             51                 6      0     25       207
                             0             54                 7      0     26       217
                             0             57                 7      0     27       226
                             0             60                 7      0     28       237
                             0             63                 7      0     29       247
                             0             66                 7      0     29       258
                             0             69                 8      0     30       270
                      Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation

0   72   8   0   31     282
0   76   8   0   32     295
0   80   8   0   33     309
0   84   9   0   34     323
                                                 Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation




                    Total        Total
    Total         VOC/Time        Net
    Traffic        Savings      Benefits

                                         -4227
                                         -8536
                                         -4391
           208         1180               1162
           241         1353               1335
           269         1502               1514
           302         1678               1690
           324         1795               1807
           341         1889               1901
           353         1959               1971
           366         2033               2045
           380         2111               2123
           394         2192               2204
           409         2276               2288
           424         2363                695
           440         2454               2466
           457         2549               2561
           474         2648               2660
           492         2751               2763
           511         2858               2870
           531         2969               2981
           551         3085               3097
           572         3206               3218
           594         3332               3344
           617         3463               3475
          9249        51645              33017

25 Year EIRR           8.9%
20 Year EIRR           6.9%



                 Total        Total
Total            VOC/Time     Net
Traffic          Savings      Benefits
                                          Appendix 5.1 - Preliminary Economic Evaluation

           0            0    -8,129,077
           0            0   -16,414,596
           0            0    -8,443,904
     400,514    2,268,305     2,235,012
     463,230    2,601,217     2,567,924
     517,022    2,888,604     2,911,681
     580,722    3,227,545     3,250,622
     622,203    3,452,490     3,475,566
     654,822    3,632,305     3,655,382
     678,501    3,766,609     3,789,686
     703,833    3,910,023     3,933,100
     730,172    4,059,261     4,082,338
     757,564    4,214,572     4,237,649
     786,051    4,376,219     4,399,296
     815,681    4,544,476     1,336,784
     846,502    4,719,630     4,742,707
     878,566    4,901,979     4,925,056
     911,925    5,091,837     5,114,914
     946,634    5,289,530     5,312,607
     982,753    5,495,401     5,518,478
   1,020,341    5,709,807     5,732,884
   1,059,462    5,933,123     5,956,200
   1,100,182    6,165,739     6,188,816
   1,142,571    6,408,065     6,431,142
   1,186,700    6,660,528     6,683,605
  17,785,951   99,317,262    63,493,870

25 Year EIRR        8.9%
20 Year EIRR        6.9%
Indicative Economic Analysis of Main System Improvements - Figures in '000 US$
0
Proposed Alatona Scheme                  Other Irrigation Schemes Upstream of Alatona                                              Other Irrigation Schemes Upstream
With Project Benefit, Costs, Cash Flow   Without Main System Improvements                                                          With Main System Improvements
                                                                                     Total
      Inc.                   Cash        Existing    New Irrig. New Infra. New Inf. Equipped               Total      Value Of     Existing
Years Benefit    Inc. Costs Flow         Irrig. Area Area       Cost/ha    Cost      Area      Rice Yield Production Production    Irrig. Area
      US$        US$         US$         ha          ha         US$/ha     US$       ha        tons/ha     tons       US$          ha
    1         62    -24,609     -24547         80000                                     80000           6     480000     129600         80000
    2         62    -61,337     -61276                                                   80000           6     480000     129600
    3       2483    -66,777     -64293                                                   80000           6     480000     129600
    4       9204    -52,648     -43444                                                   80000           6     480000     129600
    5      15434    -26,242     -10808                     5000          6    30000      85000           6     510000     137700
    6      21056        -678     20378                                                   85000           6     510000     137700
    7      24548        -678     23870                                                   85000         5.5     467500     126225
    8      27057        -678     26379                                                   85000         5.5     467500     126225
    9      28132        -678     27453                                                   85000           5     425000     114750
   10      28714        -678     28035                                                   85000           5     425000     114750
   11      28857        -678     28179                                                   85000         4.5     382500     103275
   12      29006        -678     28328                                                   85000         4.5     382500     103275
   13      29162        -678     28483                                                   85000         4.5     382500     103275
   14      29323        -678     28645                                                   85000         4.5     382500     103275
   15      29492      -3,909     25582                                                   85000         4.5     382500     103275
   16      29667        -678     28988                                                   85000         4.5     382500     103275
   17      29849        -678     29171                                                   85000         4.5     382500     103275
   18      30039        -678     29360                                                   85000         4.5     382500     103275
   19      30237        -678     29558                                                   85000         4.5     382500     103275
   20      30442        -678     29764                                                   85000         4.5     382500     103275
   21      30657        -678     29978                                                   85000         4.5     382500     103275
   22      30880        -678     30202                                                   85000         4.5     382500     103275
   23      31113        -678     30434                                                   85000         4.5     382500     103275
   24      31355        -678     30677                                                   85000         4.5     382500     103275
   25      31608        -678     30929                                                   85000           5     425000      70125

                  IRR             9.0%
Other Irrigation Schemes Upstream of Alatona                                                                   Other Schemes Incremental          Combined Alatona
With Main System Improvements                                                                                  Returns on MSI Investments         and Non-Alatona Schemes
                                                                 Total
          New Irrig. New Infra. New Inf.             Total Inf. Equipped              Total       Value Of     Incr.      Inc.       Cash         Cash
          Area       Cost/ha    Cost      MSI Costs Cost         Area      Rice Yield Production Production    Costs      Returns    Flow         Flow
          ha         US$/ha     US$       US$        US$         ha        tons/ha    tons        US$          US$        US$        US$          US$
                                                6000       6000      80000          6      480000     129600         6000          0      -6000      -30547
                                                6000       6000      80000          6      480000     129600         6000          0      -6000      -67276
                                                               0     80000          6      480000     129600            0          0          0      -64293
                                                               0     80000          6      480000     129600            0          0          0      -43444
                5000        6      30000                 30000       85000          6      510000     137700            0          0          0      -10808
                                                               0     85000          6      510000     137700            0          0          0       20378
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      11475     11475        35345
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      11475     11475        37854
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      22950     22950        50403
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      22950     22950        50985
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      34425     34425        62604
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      34425     34425        62753
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      34425     34425        62908
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      34425     34425        63070
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      34425     34425        60007
                     Economic price of paddy is 0.27
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      34425     34425        63413
                             cents per kg.
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      34425     34425        63596
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      34425     34425        63785
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      34425     34425        63983
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      34425     34425        64189
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      34425     34425        64403
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      34425     34425        64627
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      34425     34425        64859
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      34425     34425        65102
                                                                     85000          6      510000     137700            0      67575     67575        98504

                                                                                                               IRR          38.7%                 IRR
Combined Alatona
and Non-Alatona Schemes




            15.3%
0
Mali: Alatona Irrigation

                                               Av g Per     Total                                                                                                Av g Per Farm        Total
Farming Beneficiary Calculation                 Farm                                                              Laborer Beneficiary Calculation
Total Area Av ail f or Farming                                                                                    Total Area Av ail f or Farming
                                                            16,000                                                                                                                    16,000

Number of Farms                                                                                                   Number of Farms
                                                             1818                                                                                                                      1818
Number of People per 5 Ha                                    12.8                                                 Number of Laborer Benef iciaries                      6.5           11,903
                                                                                                                                   Number of 5 Ha Farm
Number of Farmer Benef iciaries
                                                 16.0       29,104                                                                 Laborer Benef iciaries                0               0
                  Number of 5 Ha Farm                                                                                              Number of 10 Ha Farm
                  Benef iciaries (Newly          12.8        5,120                                                                 Laborer Benef iciaries                0               0
                  Settled) of 5 Ha Farm
                  Number                                                                                                           Number of 30 Ha Farm
                  Benef iciaries (Resettled)     12.8       10,240                                                                 Laborer Benef iciaries               64             4,480
                                                                                                                                   Number of Larger Farm
    Number of 10 Ha Farm Benef iciaries
                                                 25.6       12,800                                                                 Laborer Benef iciaries              153.6           7,423
    Number of 30 Ha Farm Benef iciaries
                                                 12.8         896

    Number of Larger Farm Benef iciaries
                                                   1          48


Size of Resettlement Package (In Ha out of a 5 Ha              2
Farm
Land Price to Include in Farmer Income Calculation             1         1: $5,000 Per Ha, 20 Y r Loan Term, 0% Interest, 1 Y ear Grace (Land DD Reccs); 2: Direct Link to Land_Financing Sheet




This Sheet Does Not Include Road Costs or Road
Beneficiaries

Wages as a Percentage of Total VA                           11.2%
Labor Costs as Percentage of Total                          18.4%
Costs for ON Ag Production

Total Benficiaries (Farmers + Laborers)
Total Beneficiaries                                         41,008

Project Costs Per Beneficiary
                                                                                      Calculation does not include Road Costs or Beneficiaries
Irrigation Project Cost/Beneficiary ($)                      3,226
                Project Cost Attributed to Farm                                       Calculation does not include Road Costs or Beneficiaries
                Beneficiaries/Farm Benficiary ($)            3,971
                Project Cost Attributed to                                            Calculation does not include Road Costs or Beneficiaries
                                                             1,406
                Laborer/ Laborer Beneficiary ($)


Road Beneficiaries                                          70,000
Road Cost per Beneficiary ($)                                482

Farmer Owner Change in Income                                                                                     Laborer Beneficiary Change in Income

Income Level Achieved By Project for 5 Ha Farm (Newly Settled Farmers)
                                           Implied Annual Profits of the Average 5 Ha Farm ($)                    Av erage Annual Wage Per Laborer in SS ($)                            231
Crops                                      Yr 1       Yr 2       Yr 3         Yr 4       Yr 5                     Valuation of Food Prov ided to Laborer in SS ($)                       63
Rainy Season Paddy                        2,302       2,931      3,582       4,253      4,326                     Av erage Annual Wage Per Laborer In SS ($)                            294
Wheat (DS)                                  0           0          0            0          0
Maize RS                                   319         368        405         442        467                      Note:
Dry Season Paddy                           320         291        227         114          0                      This analy sis assumes that all of the Laborer Benef iciaries will earn a wage. It is likely that some
Maize DS                                    61         79         103         127        152                      of these benef iciaries will in f act be non-working f amily members. This potential ov erstating of incomes
Shallots                                   807        1,276      1,787       2,342      3,070                     is balanced by the f act that the Laborer Benef iciaries' role on the larger f arms will likely go bey ond that
Potato                                     323         358        315         196          0                      of seasonal labor to being tenant f armers and receiv ing a share of crop income on the 30 Ha and larger
Tomato/other v eg.                          9          21         38           68        106                      f arms.
Niebe Hay (f orage)                         24         27         24           12          0
Farm Income                               4,166       5,352      6,483       7,554      8,122
Land Pay ment                               0        -1,250     -1,250       -1,250     -1,250
Laborer Income                              0           0          0            0          0
Income After Land and Labor               4,166       4,102      5,233       6,304      6,872

People per Farm                                  12.8
Tot Inc/Person                                   326          320           409          492          537


Estimate of Percentage Farm HH Income that is Incremental                                61%

Estimate of Percentage of Total Project Income that is Incremental:                      57%                      Total Weighted Average Increase                       418




Range of Potential Alternative Income Opportunties As                                                             Range of Potential Alternative Income Opportunties As
Compared to Implied S.S. Profits Level Per Person of $ 537                                                        Compared to Implied Average S.S. Laborer's Wage of $             294
                                        Alternati Alternativ Implied $                 Implied         % of                                                                        Alternativ    Implied $       Implied          % of
                                           ve      e Below   Change in                 Relativ e     Project                                                        Alternativ e    e Below      Change in       Relativ e      Project
Alternativ e Scenarios                   Income    Pov erty   Income                  Change in      Income       Alternativ e Scenarios                           Income Per       Pov erty      Income        Change in       Income
                                           Per      Line?       Per                    Income         that is                                                       Person ($)       Line?          Per        Income per        that is
                                         Person     (Y /N)    Person                     per       Increment                                                                         (Y /N)       Person         Person       Increment
3 Ha Farm                                  ($)
                                           241        Y es       296                   Person
                                                                                          2.2            al
                                                                                                        55%       4 Months of Day Labor @ FCFA 1,500/Day                294            No             0             1.0             al
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0%
Rural GDP Per Capita                       248        Y es       289                      2.2           54%       Rural GDP Per Capita                                  248            Y es          46             1.2            16%
Subsistence                                190        Y es       347                      2.8           65%       Subsistence                                           190            Y es          104            1.5            35%
Weighted Average                           207        N/A        330                      2.6           61%       Weighted Average                                      211            N/A           83             1.4            28%

Notes:                                                                                                          Notes:
-3 Ha Farm that serv es 12.8 people, f ull season of rice, of f season rice and market gardening consistent with-Av erage per capital annual rural expenditure per capita. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne d’Ev aluation de
current ON lev els using current ON y ields on shallots and rice                                                la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI.
-Av erage per capita annual rural expenditure per capita. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne d’Ev aluation de       -2450 Calories per day monetized into FCFA 99,038 and conv erted into Dollars. According to DNSI this
la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI.                                                                           is the expenditure necessary f or the minimum lev el of caloric intake. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne
-2450 Calories per day monetized into FCFA 99,038 and conv erted into Dollars. According to DNSI this           d’Ev aluation de la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI.
is the expenditure necessary f or the minimum lev el of caloric intake. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne
d’Ev aluation de la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI.

Income Level Achieved By Project for 5 Ha Farm (Resettled Population)
Crops                                      Implied Annual Profits of the Average 5 Ha Farm ($)
                                           Yr 1      Yr 2        Yr 3         Yr 4       Yr 5
RS Paddy                                  2,302      2,931       3,582       4,253      4,326
DS Wheat                                    0          0           0            0          0
RS Maize                                   319        368         405         442        467
DS Paddy                                   320        291         227         114          0
DS Maize                                    61        79          103         127        152
Shallots (DS)                              807       1,276       1,787       2,342      3,070
Potato (DS)                                323        358         315         196          0
Tomato (DS)                                 9         21          38           68        106
Niebe Forage (DS)                           24        27          24           12          0
Farm Income                               4,166      5,352       6,483       7,554      8,122
Land Pay ment                               0        -750        -750         -750       -750
Laborer Income                              0          0           0            0          0
Income After Land and Labor               4,166      4,602       5,733       6,804      7,372
People per Farm                            12.8
Tot Inc/Person                             326        360         448         532        576


Range of Potential Alternative Income Opportunties As
Compared to Implied S.S. Profits Level Per Person of $ 576
                                        Alternati Alternativ Implied $                 Implied         % of
                                           ve      e Below   Change in                 Relativ e     Project
Alternativ e Scenarios                   Income    Pov erty   Income                  Change in      Income
                                           Per      Line?       Per                    Income         that is
                                         Person     (Y /N)    Person                     per       Increment
3 Ha Farm                                  ($)
                                           241        Y es       335                   Person
                                                                                          2.4            al
                                                                                                        58%
Rural GDP Per Capita                       248        Y es       328                      2.3           57%
Subsistence                                190        Y es       386                      3.0           67%
Weighted Average                           190        N/A        386                      3.0           67%

Notes:
-3 Ha Farm that serv es 12.8 people, f ull season of rice, of f season rice and market gardening consistent with
current ON lev els using current ON y ields on shallots and rice
-Av erage per capita annual rural expenditure per capita. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne d’Ev aluation de
la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI.
-2450 Calories per day monetized into FCFA 99,038 and conv erted into Dollars. According to DNSI this
is the expenditure necessary f or the minimum lev el of caloric intake. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne
d’Ev aluation de la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI.

Income Level Achieved By Project for 10 Ha Farm
                                          Implied Annual Profits of the Average 10 Ha Farm ($)
Crops                                      Yr 1      Yr 2        Yr 3        Yr 4        Yr 5
Rainy Season Paddy                        4,604     5,863       7,163       8,506       8,652
Wheat (DS)                                  0         0           0           0           0
Maize RS                                   638       737         811         885         934

Dry Season Paddy                                 640          581           455          227            0

Maize DS                                          122         158            207         253          304
Shallots                                         1,614       2,551          3,575       4,685        6,141
Potato                                            647         716            631         392            0
Tomato/other v eg.                                 19         43             75          135          213
Niebe Hay (f orage)                                49         55             48           24            0
Total Income                                     8,333      10,703         12,965       15,108       16,243
Land Pay ment                                      0        -2,500         -2,500       -2,500       -2,500
Laborer Income                                     0           0              0            0            0
Income After Land and Labor                      8,333       8,203         10,465       12,608       13,743
People per Farm                                   25.6
Tot Inc/Person                                    326         320           409          492          537


Range of Potential Alternative Income Opportunties As
Compared to Implied S.S. Profits Level Per Person of $ 537
                                        Alternati Alternativ Implied $                 Implied         % of
                                           ve      e Below   Change in                 Relativ e     Project
Alternativ e Scenarios                   Income    Pov erty   Income                  Change in      Income
                                           Per      Line?       Per                    Income         that is
                                         Person     (Y /N)    Person                     per       Increment
3 Ha Farm                                  ($)
                                           241        Y es       296                   Person
                                                                                          2.2            al
                                                                                                        55%
Rural GDP Per Capita                       248        Y es       289                      2.2           54%
Subsistence                                190        Y es       347                      2.8           65%
Weighted Average                           241        N/A        296                      2.2           55%

Notes:
-3 Ha Farm that serv es 12.8 people, f ull season of rice, of f season rice and market gardening consistent with
current ON lev els using current ON y ields on shallots and rice
-Av erage per capita annual rural expenditure per capita. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne d’Ev aluation de
la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI.
-2450 Calories per day monetized into FCFA 99,038 and conv erted into Dollars. According to DNSI this
is the expenditure necessary f or the minimum lev el of caloric intake. Source: 2004 “Enquête Malienne
d’Ev aluation de la Pauv reté”. Published by the DNSI.

Income Level Achieved By Project for 30 Ha Farm
                                          Implied Annual Profits of the Average 10 Ha Farm ($)
Crops                                      Yr 1      Yr 2        Yr 3        Yr 4        Yr 5
Rainy Season Paddy                       13,811     17,588      21,490      25,517     25,955
Wheat (DS)                                  0          0           0           0          0
Maize RS                                  1,915      2,211       2,432      2,654       2,802
Dry Season Paddy                          1,921      1,744       1,364       682          0
Maize DS                                   367        475         621        759         912
Shallots                                  4,843      7,653      10,724      14,054     18,422
Potato                                    1,940      2,147       1,893      1,177         0
Tomato/other v eg.                          56        128         226        406         639
Niebe Hay (f orage)                        146        164         145         73          0
Total Income                             24,998     32,110      38,896      45,323     48,729
Land Pay ment                               0       -7,500      -7,500      -7,500     -7,500
Laborer Income                             900        932         964        996        1,028
Income After Land Payment                25,898     25,541      32,359      38,819     42,257
People per Farm                            12.8
Tot Inc/Person                            2,023      1,995       2,528      3,033       3,301


Range of Potential Alternative Income Opportunties As
`                                                                        3,301
                                        Alternati Alternativ             Implied $     Implied         % of
                                           ve      e Below               Change in     Relativ e     Project
Alternativ e Scenarios                   Income    Pov erty               Income      Change in      Income
                                           Per      Line?                   Per        Income         that is
                                         Person     (Y /N)                 Person        per       Increment
3 Ha Farm                                  ($)
                                           750        No                    2551       Person
                                                                                          4.4            al
                                                                                                        77%
Rural GDP Per Capita                       750        No                    2551          4.4           77%
Subsistence                                750        No                    2551          4.4           77%
Weighted Average                           750        N/A                   2551          4.4           77%

Notes:
-750 is three times Mali's av erage rural expenditure per capita

Income Level Achieved By Project for Larger Farms (Assumed to be 60 Ha)
                                          Implied Annual Profits of the Average 60 Ha Farm ($)
Crops                                      Yr 1       Yr 2       Yr 3         Yr 4       Yr 5
RS Paddy                                 27,621     35,175      42,980       51,035     51,909
Banana                                      0          0           0           0          0
RS Maize                                 3,831       4,422       4,865       5,308      5,603
DS Paddy                                 3,842       3,488       2,729       1,364        0
DS Maize                                   734        951        1,242       1,519      1,824
Shallots                                 9,685      15,307      21,448       28,108     36,845
Potato                                   3,879       4,294       3,786       2,354        0
Tomato                                     112        256         452         813       1,277
Niebe                                      293        328         291         145         0
Total Income                             49,997     64,220      77,791       90,646     97,458
Land Pay ment                               0       -15,000    -15,000      -15,000    -15,000
Laborer Income                              0          0           0           0          0
Income After Payments                    49,997     49,220      62,791       75,646     82,458
People per Farm                             1
Tot Inc/Person                           49,997     64,220      77,791       90,646     97,458


Range of Potential Alternative Income Opportunties As
Compared to Implied S.S. Profits Level Per Person of $ 97,458
                                        Alternati Alternativ Implied $                 Implied         % of
                                            ve     e Below   Change in                 Relativ e     Project
Alternativ e Scenarios                   Income    Pov erty   Income                  Change in      Income
                                           Per      Line?       Per                    Income         that is
                                         Person     (Y /N)    Person                     per       Increment
3 Ha Farm                                   ($)
                                           5,000      No       92,458                  Person
                                                                                         19.5            al
                                                                                                        95%
Rural GDP Per Capita                       5,000      No       92,458                    19.5           95%
Subsistence                                5,000      No       92,458                    19.5           95%
Weighted Average                           5,000      N/A      92,458                    19.5           95%

Notes:
-$5,000 is a placeholder

Poverty Line ($)                                 277                     Poverty Line to Use:           2         1: WB $1.08/Day (Not PPP adjusted), 2: 2004 Malian Pov erty Line of FCFA 144,022 Conv erted into $


Farmer Poverty Reduction                                                                                          Laborer Poverty Reduction

                                                                                                                                                                                    Alternativ
                                                                                      Percent                                                                       Alternativ e
                                                          Number         Of Which                                                                                                    e Below                                   Of Which
                                               Percent                                Which        Hectares                                                        Income Per                     Percent        Number
                                                          of People      Are Poor                                                                                                   Pov erty                                   Are Poor
                                                                                      Are Poor                                                                      Person ($)
                                                                                                                                                                                      Line?
5 Ha Farms (Settled Population)                                                                                   Laborer Benef iciaries Coming f rom 4                               (Y /N)         20%           2,381             0
                                                   18%        5,120          5,120        100%          2,000                                                          294              No
                                                                                                                  Months of Day Labor Scenario
                % Smaller Farm                    33%         1,690          1,690                          660   Laborer Benef iciaries Coming f rom Rural                                           0%             0               0
                                                                                          100%                                                                         248             Y es
                Benef iciaries Coming                                                                             GDP Per Capita Scenario
                f rom 3 Ha Farm Scenario
                % Small Farm                       0%               0             0                           0   Laborer Benef iciaries Coming f rom                                                80%           9,523            9,523
                                                                                                                                                                       190             Y es
                Benef iciaries Coming                                                                             Subsistence Scenario
                f rom Rural GDP Per
                % Small Farm                      67%         3,430          3,430                     1,340
                                                                                          100%
                Benef iciaries Coming                                                                             Total                                                 211             N/A         100%          11,903            9,523
                f rom Subsistence
                5 Ha Farms (Resettled             35%        10,240         10,240        100%          4,000
                % Smaller Farm                     0%               0             0                         0
                Benef iciaries Coming
                f rom 3 Ha Farm Scenario
                % Small Farm                       0%               0             0                           0
                Benef iciaries Coming
                f rom Rural GDP Per
                % Small Farm                     100%        10,240         10,240                     4,000
                                                                                          100%
                Benef iciaries Coming
Total 10 Ha Farms
                f rom Subsistence                 44%        12,800         12,800        100%         5,000
                % Smaller Farm                   100%        12,800         12,800                     5,000
                                                                                          100%
                Benef iciaries Coming
                f rom 3 Ha Farm Scenario
                % Small Farm                       0%               0             0                           0
                Benef iciaries Coming
                f rom Rural GDP Per
                % Small Farm                       0%               0             0                           0
                Benef iciaries Coming
                f rom Subsistence
Total 30 Ha Farms                                  3%              896            0         0%         2,100
                % Coming f rom 30 Ha             100%              896            0         0%         2,100
                Scenario                                                                                   0
                                                                                                           0
Total Larger Farms                                 0%               48            0         0%         2,900
                % Coming f rom 60 Ha             100%               48            0         0%         2,900
                                                                                                           0
                                                                                                           0
Total                                            100%        29,104         28,160         97%        16,000

Av erage Income of Poor Benef iciaries Prior to Program ($)                 216                                   Av erage Income of Poor Benef iciaries Prior to Program ($)                                                       190     Need Use Finan Prices
Av erage Income Af ter Program ($)                                          551                                   Av erage Income of Poor Benef iciaries Af ter Program ($)                                                         294
Av erage Increase in Income Per Poor Farmer Benef iciary ($)                335                                   Av erage Increase in Income Per Laborer Benef iciary ($)                                                          104

Av erage Increase in Income Per Farmer Benef iciary (%)                     155%                                  Av erage Increase in Income Per Poor Laborer Benef iciary (%)                                                     55%


Number of Benef iciaries Below Pov erty Line Prior to Program              28,160                                 Number of Benef iciaries Below Pov erty Line Prior to Program                                                     9,523
Number of Benef iciaries Below Pov erty Line Af ter Program                   0                                   Number of Benef iciaries Below Pov erty Line Af ter Program                                                         0
Number of Benef iciaries brought out of pov erty                           28,160                                 Number of Benef iciaries brought out of pov erty                                                                  9,523

Av g. Distance Below Pov erty Line Among Benef iciaries who are                                                   Av g. Distance Below Pov erty Line Among Benef iciaries who are Poor Prior to the Program ($)                      87
Poor Prior to Program ($)                                                    61
Av g. Distance Below Pov erty Line Among Benef iciaries who were                                                  Av g. Distance Below Pov erty Line Among Laborer Benef iciaries who were Poor Post Program ($)                     0
Poor Post Program ($)                                                         0
Pov erty Gap Prior to the Program                                           22%                                   Pov erty Gap Prior to the Program                                                                                 31%
Pov erty Gap Af ter the Program                                              0%                                   Pov erty Gap Af ter the Program                                                                                   0%      Need Use Finan Prices

This Sheet Does Not Include Road
Costs or Road Beneficiaries
0
Mali: Alatona Irrigation

Table of Equipment Investments Required for 10 Ha farm
                                             Number           Unit cost      Total value
Cultivator                                      1             2,868,000       2,868,000
Cart                                            1              130,000         130,000
Oxen                                            1               50,000          50,000
TOTAL                                                                         3,048,000

Table of Equipment Financing Requirements
Interest Rate for Medium Term Loan                                               25%
Duration (years)                                                                   5
Percentage of Total Value Borrowed                                               90%
Amount Borrowed                                                               2,743,200
Annual Installment Payment                                                    1,020,050
Total Interest Paid                                                           2,357,050
Average Annual Interest Paid                                                   471,410
Average Annual Interest Paid Per Ha                                             47,141

Table of Input Financing Requirements
Percentage of Input Costs Financed                                                    45.0%
Interest Rate for Seasonal Loan for Inputs                                            17.0%


Variable Cost Per Ha of Rice Production                                                 317

Which Costs To Use                                       1 1: Direct Weighted Avg of the Costs used Farm Model Assump

Cash Flow of Farm that is representative of the Crop Mix in the Alatona

                                                  Yr 1          Yr 2            Yr 3
Variable Cost of Production
 Labor Costs
 Water Costs
 Input Costs
 Input Financing
Equipment Costs
 Down Payment on Equip
 Financial Expenses
 Depreciaton of Equipment
 Maintenance of Animals
 Maintenance of Equip
Total Costs (With No Land Fees)              2,078,651    2,118,439       2,158,226
Total Costs/Ha                               415,730      423,688         431,645

Steady State Cost Per Ha                     447,560                      Input Costs as Percentage of Total Variabl
Average Cost Per Ha                          443,581                      Labor Costs as Percentage of Total Variab
Total Revenues                                 4,245,181        4,901,287        5,529,172
Total Revenues Per Ha                          849,036          980,257          1,105,834

80% of Revenues (0=No, 1=Yes)                         0

Net Margin                                     2,166,530        2,782,848        3,370,946
Net Margin Per Ha                              433,306          556,570          674,189

Total Input Financing Requirements by
Cohort
Total Equipment Financing Requirements by
Cohort
Total Non-Land Financing Required by
Cohort (CFA)
Total Non-Land Financing ($)




Calculation of the Implied Value of the Land from this benefit stream

                                                      CFA                $
Full Land Value Per 10 Ha Farm                     79,554,411         152,989
Full Land Value Per Ha                             15,910,882          30,598
Land Value is arrived at by calculating the price which would set return on the benefit stream associated with the net margin de
Scenario In Use:                                 Base Case

Total Cost with full Land Value                81,633,062       2,271,428        2,158,226

Net Margin With Full Land Value                -77,387,881      2,629,859        3,370,946

10 Year IRR With Full Land Value                   -12.9%                        Full Project Cost Per Ha ($)
15 Year IRR With Full Land Value                    -3.8%                        Cost Per Hectare of Land Prep ($)
20 Year IRR With Full Land Value                     0.0%                        Cost Per Hectare of Land Prep (CFA)


Calculation of Farmer if they pay full cost recovery of the for Land Preparation (In CFA) Up Front (IRR)

                                                     CFA                $
Land Preparation Costs                           18,938,403          36,420
Land Preparation Costs Per Ha                     3,787,681           7,284

Total Cost with Land Prep Costs                21,017,054       2,154,859        2,158,226

Net Margin With Land Prep Costs                -16,771,873      2,746,428        3,370,946

10 Year IRR With Land Prep Costs                    16.9%
15 Year IRR With Land Prep Costs                    21.0%
20 Year IRR With Land Prep Costs                    22.1%
Calculation of Farmer Cash Flow with Alternative Land Price, Mortgage Terms, and Interest rates

Years                                              20       (5,10, 15, or 20 Year Term)
Interest Rate                                      0%
First Year of Repayment                             2       (Years 1 through 5)

Household Spending Requirements               4,013,568
Food Requirements/HH/Year ($)                   7,718
Per Person ($)                                   603

Type of Farm                                       1        (1: Mix of Crops, 2: Only one main season of rice)

Land Payment                              0                 435,583          435,583
Land Payment Per Ha                       0                 87,117           87,117

Total Cost with Land Payment              2,078,651         2,554,022        2,593,809

Cash Flow with Land Payment               2,166,530         2,347,265        2,935,363
Cash Flow Per Hectare                     433,306           469,453          587,073
Cash Flow Per Hectare ($)                 833               903              1,129

Household Spending                        7,718             7,718            7,718

Household Cash Flow                       -3,552            -3,204           -2,073

Land Financing Required (CFA)             0                 20,200,710,276 0
Equip and Input Financing Required
Total Financing Required By Cohort
Total Financing By Cohort ($)

Source Data for Average 10 Ha Farm Revenues, Costs, and Margins

Farm Revenues (CFA '000)
                                                        Implied Annual Revenue of the Average 5 Ha Farm ('000)
Crops                                           Yr 1              Yr 2          Yr 3
RS Paddy                                       2,703             3,057         3,423
DS Wheat                                          0                 0             0
RS Maize                                        243               269           288
DS Paddy                                        280               236           175
DS Maize                                         51                63            78
Shallots (DS)                                   563               878          1,215
Potato (DS)                                     360               330           260
Tomato (DS)                                      27                50            75
Niebe Forage (DS)                                19                19            16
Total Revenues                                 4,245             4,901         5,529

Farm Costs (CFA '000)
                                                          Implied Annual Costs of the Average 5 Ha Farm ('000)
Crops                                           Yr 1              Yr 2           Yr 3
RS Paddy                                       1,506             1,533          1,560
DS Wheat                       0            0                0
RS Maize                      77           77               77
DS Paddy                     114           85               57
DS Maize                      19           22               24
Shallots (DS)                143          214              286
Potato (DS)                  192          144               96
Tomato (DS)                   22           39               55
Niebe Forage (DS)              6            5                3
Total Costs (CFA '000)      2,079        2,118            2,158
Total Costs (CFA)         2,078,651    2,118,439        2,158,226

Farm Profits (CFA '000)
                                      Implied Profits of the Average 5 Ha Farm ('000)
Crops                       Yr 1           Yr 2             Yr 3
RS Paddy                   1,197         1,524             1,862
DS Wheat                      0              0                0
RS Maize                    166            192              211
DS Paddy                    167            151              118
DS Maize                     32             41               54
Shallots (DS)               420            663              929
Potato (DS)                 168            186              164
Tomato (DS)                   5             11               20
Niebe Forage (DS)            13             14               13
Total Profits              2,167         2,783             3,371
              Residual value       Duration     Amortized       Total
                    0                 5          573,600       573,600
                    0                 5           8,000         8,000
                    0                 5           6,000         6,000
                                                               587,600

                                Ongoing Equipment Costs
                                Maintenance of Animals                         2,500
                                Maintenance of Equipment                      15,000
                                Depreciation of Equipment                        0
                                Financial Expenses                           102,005




                                Table of Water Fees Per Hectare
                                Main Season Water (Rice)                        63,500
                                Off Season Water (Rice)                          6,350
                                Vegetables                                      59,000




 g of the Costs used Farm Model Assumption; 2: Costs built up by Components so that Estimates of input financing Can be calculated

             Farm Size (Ha)            5                     HH Size               12.8

                    Yr 4             Yr 5           Yr 6         Yr 7          Yr 8          Yr 9        Yr 10




             2,198,013          2,237,800      2,237,800     2,237,800    2,237,800       2,237,800   2,237,800
             439,603            447,560        447,560       447,560      447,560         447,560     447,560

ut Costs as Percentage of Total Variable Costs (Yr 5)
or Costs as Percentage of Total Variable Costs (Yr 5)
            6,126,007         6,461,000      6,461,000    6,461,000    6,461,000    6,461,000    6,461,000
            1,225,201         1,292,200      1,292,200    1,292,200    1,292,200    1,292,200    1,292,200




            3,927,994         4,223,200      4,223,200    4,223,200    4,223,200    4,223,200    4,223,200
            785,599           844,640        844,640      844,640      844,640      844,640      844,640




stream associated with the net margin developed above to 0% over a 20 year horizon with base case assumptions


            2,198,013         2,237,800      2,237,800    2,237,800    2,237,800    2,237,800    2,237,800

            3,927,994         4,223,200      4,223,200    4,223,200    4,223,200    4,223,200    4,223,200

 Project Cost Per Ha ($)                          10,624 For Net Irrigable Area Developed
t Per Hectare of Land Prep ($)                     7,284 For Net Irrigable Area Developed
t Per Hectare of Land Prep (CFA)               3,787,681 For Net Irrigable Area Developed


In CFA) Up Front (IRR)




            2,198,013         2,237,800      2,237,800    2,237,800    2,237,800    2,237,800    2,237,800

            3,927,994         4,223,200      4,223,200    4,223,200    4,223,200    4,223,200    4,223,200
and Interest rates                             Scenario In Use: Base Case                               Price
                                                                                                             $1,000
            Percent of Land Preparation Costs to be Recovered                      46%                       $2,500
            Land Price per Hectare (CFA)                                        1,742,333                    $4,000
            Land Price per Hectare ($)                                            3,351                      $5,500
                                                                                                             $7,000
                                                                                                             $7,200
                                                                                                             $8,500
                                                                                                            $10,000

Only one main season of rice)

            435,583             435,583            435,583     435,583      435,583         435,583     435,583
            87,117              87,117             87,117      87,117       87,117          87,117      87,117

            2,633,596           2,673,383          2,673,383   2,673,383    2,673,383       2,673,383   2,673,383

            3,492,411           3,787,617          3,787,617   3,787,617    3,787,617       3,787,617   3,787,617
            698,482             757,523            757,523     757,523      757,523         757,523     757,523
            1,343               1,457              1,457       1,457        1,457           1,457       1,457

            7,718               7,718              7,718       7,718        7,718           7,718       7,718

            -1,002              -435               -435        -435         -435            -435        -435

            0                   0                  0           0            0               0           0




e of the Average 5 Ha Farm ('000)
                    Yr 4                Yr 5
                   3,799               3,864
                      0                  0
                    307                 320
                     88                  0
                     92                 108
                   1,575               2,025
                    150                  0
                    107                 144
                      8                  0
                   6,126               6,461


of the Average 5 Ha Farm ('000)
                   Yr 4                 Yr 5
                  1,587                1,615
                     0             0
                    77            77
                    28             0
                    27            29
                   357           428
                    48             0
                    72            89
                     2             0
                  2,198         2,238
                2,198,013     2,237,800


he Average 5 Ha Farm ('000)
                  Yr 4          Yr 5
                 2,212         2,249
                    0             0
                  230           243
                   59             0
                   66            79
                 1,218         1,597
                  102             0
                   35            55
                    6             0
                 3,928         4,223
t financing Can be calculated




                 Yr 11          Yr 12      Yr 13       Yr 14       Yr 15       Yr 16       Yr 17       Yr 18




             2,237,800    2,237,800     2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800
             447,560      447,560       447,560     447,560     447,560     447,560     447,560     447,560
6,461,000   6,461,000   6,461,000   6,461,000   6,461,000   6,461,000   6,461,000   6,461,000
1,292,200   1,292,200   1,292,200   1,292,200   1,292,200   1,292,200   1,292,200   1,292,200




4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200
844,640     844,640     844,640     844,640     844,640     844,640     844,640     844,640




2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800

4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200




2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800   2,237,800

4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200   4,223,200
% Cost Recovery Implied
    13.73%
    34.32%
    54.91%
    75.51%
    96.10%
    98.85%
   116.69%
   137.29%




435,583     435,583       435,583     435,583     435,583     435,583     435,583     435,583
87,117      87,117        87,117      87,117      87,117      87,117      87,117      87,117

2,673,383   2,673,383     2,673,383   2,673,383   2,673,383   2,673,383   2,673,383   2,673,383

3,787,617   3,787,617     3,787,617   3,787,617   3,787,617   3,787,617   3,787,617   3,787,617
757,523     757,523       757,523     757,523     757,523     757,523     757,523     757,523
1,457       1,457         1,457       1,457       1,457       1,457       1,457       1,457

7,718       7,718         7,718       7,718       7,718       7,718       7,718       7,718

-435        -435          -435        -435        -435        -435        -435        -435

0           0             0           0           0           0           0           0
   Yr 19       Yr 20




2,237,800   2,237,800
447,560     447,560
6,461,000   6,461,000
1,292,200   1,292,200




4,223,200   4,223,200
844,640     844,640




2,237,800   2,237,800

4,223,200   4,223,200




2,237,800   2,237,800

4,223,200   4,223,200
435,583     435,583     435,583    0       0         0
87,117      87,117      87,117     0       0         0

2,673,383   2,673,383   435,583    0       175,754   0

3,787,617   3,787,617   -435,583   0       331,686   0
757,523     757,523     -87,117    0       66,337    0
1,457       1,457       -168       0       128       0

7,718       7,718       7,718      7,718   7,718     7,718

-435        -435

0           0
Mali: Alatona Irrigation
Production
0
                                          Total Tons   of Production by Crop
Crops                                       Yr 1         Yr 2      Yr 3       Yr 4      Yr 5       Yr 6       Yr 7
RS Paddy                                  20,592       43,885    64,477     78,314    84,460     87,823     88,319
Banana                                        0           0         0          0         0           0         0
Maize RS                                   1,621        3,413     5,035      5,760     6,101      6,315      6,400
DS Paddy                                   2,133        3,933     6,067      3,800     2,000       667         0
Maize DS                                    340          759      1,099      1,554     1,855      2,056      2,160
Shallots                                   4,000       10,240    14,240     26,080    34,240     40,000     43,199                                                                             Rice Conversion Factor    65%
Potato                                     1,920        3,680     5,600      3,947     2,187       800         0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Annual Average Rice Consumption Per Capita                     52
Tomato/other veg.                           720         2,050     2,770      6,190     8,700     10,540     11,520                                                                               1995      1996         1997     1998       1999       2000       2001       2002     2003              2004       2005       2006      2007       2008       2009       2010       2011       2012      2013       2014       2015
Niebe Beans                                   0           0         0          0         0           0         0                                           Alatona Paddy                           0        0             0        0          0         0          0           0       0                  0          0          0         0         0          23         48         71         82        86         88         88
Niebe Hay(forage)                            80          160       240        180       100         33         0                                           Alatona Rice                            0        0             0        0          0         0          0           0       0                  0          0          0         0         0          15         31         46         53        56         58         57                 Number of People's Consumption Satisfied               1,103,986
Total (Tons)                              31,406       68,120    99,527    125,824   139,643    148,232    151,598                                         % of Paddy Imports                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  28.9%

Per Person Rice Consumption Needs (Tons)                  0.39                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Growth Rate in Rice Demand        3.50%
Beneficiaries (Farming HH + Laborers) 13,669           27,339    41,008    41,008     41,008     41,008     41,008                                                                                                                         Actual                                                                                                               Proj ected
Rice Needs                              5,331          10,662    15,993    15,993     15,993     15,993     15,993                                         Year                                    1995     1996        1997     1998      1999        2000       2001       2002     2003    CAGR      2004       2005       2006      2007       2008       2009      2010        2011       2012      2013       2014       2015     CAGR
Percent of Rice Production             23.5%            22.3%     22.7%     19.5%      18.5%      18.1%      18.1%                                         Production (Mt) FAO                       476      627         575      717       727         742        940        710      693    4.8%                                                                                                                             1116      4.1%
                                                                                                                                                                         Of Which is ON              210      232         245      267       309         319        350        400      420    9.1%
Alatona Production                                                                                                                                                                                    71
                                                                                                                                                           Imports equivalent paddy FAO et Douanes 2002 2003 127           62      148       135          85        137        333      248   16.9%                                                                                                                              306       1.8%
                                                                                                                                                           Consommation (paddy)                                                                                                         941               974       1008      1043       1080       1118       1157       1197       1239      1282       1327       1374       1422       3.5%
                                        Total Tons of Production by Crop                                                                                   Consommation (rice)                                                                                                          612               633        655       678        702        726        752        778        805       834        863        893        924
Crops                                     Yr 1       Yr 2      Yr 3        Yr 4        Yr 5        Yr 6       Yr 7                                         Percent of Consumption Imported                                                                                            26.4%                                                                                                                                    21.5%
RS Paddy                                13,458     29,616    43,074      56,911      63,058      66,420     66,916                                                                                                                                                                                    Pg. 58 Agence Française de Développement (2005), La filière riz au Mali : compétitivité et perspectives de marché.
Banana                                      0         0         0           0            0           0         0                                                                               Year               ON Rice Production
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             (Tons)
                                                                                                                                                                                                         ON Paddy Production % of National Production                                                 Additional Demand in Rice for 2010, 2015                       2010: 239,444 tons of additional paddy required         2015: 458, 449 tons of additional paddy
Maize RS                                 1,621      3,413     5,035       5,760       6,101       6,315      6,400                                                                               1995    209678     #####      44%                                                                    Tableau 24
DS Paddy                                 1,428      2,522     3,950       1,683        -117      -1,450     -2,117                                                                               1996    232206     #####      37%
Maize DS                                  340        759      1,099       1,554       1,855       2,056      2,160                                                                               1997    244563     #####      43%                                                                    A 2005 AFD study predicts that the growth rate in rice demand in Mali is 3.5%. Based on this simulation it is estimated that by 2015, Mali's annual consumption demand for rice will be 924,000 tons, an increase of the forcast demand of 246,000 in 2006. It is estimated that in 2015 the Alatona Zone will generate 99,000 tons of rice, or approximately 40% of the forecast increase in demand. Utilizing the average consumption per capita of rice in Mali of 52 Kg per person per year, the Alatona production equates to the rice consumption needs of 1.2 million people.
Shallots                                 4,000     10,240    14,240      26,080      34,240      40,000     43,199                                                                               1998    267186     #####      37%
Potato                                   1,920      3,680     5,600       3,947       2,187        800         0                                                                                 1999    308630     #####      42%
Tomato/other veg.                         720       2,050     2,770       6,190       8,700      10,540     11,520                                                                               2000    319300     #####      43%                                                                                         Paddy Increase Required (2006 to 2015)         379               2015 Paddy Demand        1422
Niebe Beans                                 0         0         0           0            0           0         0                                                                                 2001    350000     #####      37%                                                                                         Rice Increase Required (2006 to 2015)          246               2015 Rice Demand          924
Niebe Hay(forage)                          80        160       240         180         100          33         0                                                                                 2002    400000     #####      56%                                                                                         Rice Increase Required (2006 to 2015)          246               2015 Rice Demand          924
Fish                                        0         0         0           0            0           0         0                                                                                 2003    420000     #####      61%                                                                                         Alatona Percentage of Paddy Increase         23.3%               Alatona % Paddy D        6.2%
Total (Tons)                            23,567     52,441    76,008     102,305 116,123         124,713    128,079                                                                                                                                                                                                         Alatona Percentage of Rice Increase          23.3%               Alatona % Rice D         6.2%
Rice was converted to paddy by dividing 0.68 which corresponds to the shelling rate.                                                                                                           Source:   AFD (2003) La filiere riz au Mali: compétitivité et perspectives de marche

Percent of Rice Production                23.5%        22.3%     22.7%     19.5%      18.5%      18.1%      18.1%

Alatona Generated Traffic Calculation

                                           Tons         Ratio             % of AIP Traffic that is Thru Traffic for Niono-Diabaly             60%
Consultant's Assumed AIP Production       70,000         N/A              % of AIP Traffic that is Thru Traffic for Diabaly-Goma Coura        30%
Consultant's Other Cargo (Inputs, etc)    30,000       0.4286

                                                                                                ADT for    ADT for
                                                                                                Niono-    Diabaly-
                                                                                                Diabaly     Goma
                                         Tons of    Tons of                                      After      Coura
                 Year                                            Truck     Truck
                                         Producti    Other                             ADT      Control      After
                                                                 Loads     Trips
                                            on       Cargo                                        For      Control
                                                                                                 Local    for Local
                                                                                                 Only        Only
                                                                                                Traffic     Traffic
Year 1 AIP Production                     23,567       10,100     2,345     4,690       13          8          4                Tons Per Truck Load   12
Year 2 AIP Production                     52,441       22,475     5,269    10,537       29         17          9
Year 3 AIP Production                     76,008       32,575     7,613    15,225       42         25         13
Year 4 AIP Production                    102,305       43,845    10,519    21,037       58         35         17
Year 5 AIP Production                    116,123       49,767    12,034    24,068       66         40         20
Year 6 AIP Production                    124,713       53,449    12,968    25,937       71         43         21
Year 7 AIP Production                    128,079       54,891    13,315    26,629       73         44         22
Mali: Alatona Irrigation
  0
                Table 5-6: Irrigation Related Financial and Economic Prices and Farmer Costs
                                Prices and Farmer Costs – Financial and Economic
                                               Financial                                 Economic
                Crops                  CFA/KG        Costs/ha                 CFA/KG            Costs/ha
  Rainy season Paddy                      120          367                         140              351
  Wheat                                   175          200                         180              200
  Maize RS                                100          212                         160              193
  Dry Season Paddy                        120          230                         140              227
  Maize DS                                115          212                         160              193
  Shallots                                150          952                         150              952
  Potato                                  200          2106                        200              1919
  Tomato/other veg.                       40           629                         40               591
  Niebe Hay (forage)                      250              97                      250               97

  Taken from Cost Benefit Analysis Page 5-20 in CDM Draft Pre-Feasibility Report
Models Notional Returns on Social Infrastructure

0
                                                                       1       2       3
                  Costs                            Sub-Total
b. Social Infrastructure                                       15701   -2166   -3938   -3890
c. Health Sector Interventions                                  3061    -543    -846    -814
5. Social Infra From Remaining Credit                              0
Total Costs                                                    18762   -2709   -4784   -4703

Incremental Social Infrastructure Benefits                                 0       0       0
Incremental Social Infrastructure From Guarantee Fund                      0       0       0
Total Benefits                                                             0       0       0

Net Benefits                                                           -2709   -4784   -4703
                                                                  Year (Amounts in $'000)

4       5       6       7       8       9       10       11       12

-3030   -2677
 -429    -429

-3459   -3106

    0       0       0       0       0       0        0        0        0
    0       0       0       0       0       0        0        0        0
    0       0       0       0       0       0        0        0        0

-3459   -3106       0       0       0       0        0        0        0
Year (Amounts in $'000)

          13        14        15       16       17       18       19       20       21




               0          0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0
               0          0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0
               0          0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0

               0          0        0        0        0        0        0        0        0
22       23       24       25




     0        0        0        0
     0        0        0        0
     0        0        0        0

     0        0        0        0

				
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