Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Jul 2009

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Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy Jul 2009 Powered By Docstoc
					ISSN 1810-6358

viTüasßanbNþúHbNþal nig RsavRCavedIm,IGPivDÆn_km<úCa
CDRI – Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute

r)aykarN_fµI²sþIBIesdækic©km<úCa
Flash Report on the Cambodian Economy kkáda 2009 ¼
July 2009

saMg c½nÞhgS ¼ Saing Chan Hang pan; dalIs ¼ Phann Dalis b:un dUrINa ¼ Pon Dorina

bkERbeday³ yU siT§IriT§ nig exg esg

PñMeBj km<úCa
Phnom Penh, Cambodia
TO SUBSCRIBE, PLEASE CONTACT: Office Address: #56, Street 315, Tuol Kork, Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Postal Address: CDRI, PO Box 622 Phnom Penh, Cambodia Tel: (855-23) 881-384/881-701/881-916/883-603 Fax: (855-23) 880-734 E-mail: pubs@cdri.forum.org.kh. Web site: http://www.cdri.org.kh

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –July 2009

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Highlights
This report highlights some of the key economic indicators for Cambodia and its main trading partners. It compares figures for the current months with those of earlier months in 2008. During the first quarter of 2009, fixed asset investment approvals for the garment subsector continued to slide, from USD 21.4 m in the preceding quarter to USD 16.4 m. From the same quarter last year, investment approvals in the sector plummeted by 61 percent. In May, total foreign visitors fell by 18 percent from the previous month, driven by the 16 percent and 14 percent slump in holiday visitor and business arrivals. Compared with the same month last year, total visitor arrivals dropped slightly, by 4.0 percent, led by 11 percent and 5.4 percent falls in holiday and business arrivals. Phnom Penh’s construction approvals indicated a fall of 37 percent from the preceding month, decreasing to USD 57.5 m in March 2009. The downward trend was due primarily to the 96 percent drop in construction approvals of flats, but was offset by the 6.1 percent rise in villa & house construction approvals. In April, the twelve-month average interest rate on riel loan was 0.79 percent lower than that of the previous month, offering at 21.94 percent. The interest rate on US dollar loans dropped to 16.01 percent. On the monetary market, liquidity (M2) increased slightly by 3.7 percent from the previous month, reaching KHR 12954.1 bn in April. Net foreign assets slumped by 91 percent, while domestic credit showed a 1.3 percent increase. Credits to the private sector and government rose by a meagre 1.0 percent and 0.4 percent. In June, riel traded low against the US dollar, Thai baht and Vietnamese dong. The value of riel against US dollars was at 4133.9 riels/USD, with Thai baht at 121.9 riels/baht, and Vietnamese dong at 23.4 riels per 100 dong. In April, Cambodia’s total exports shrank by 17 percent from the preceding month. Therein, exports of garments, rubber and fish dropped by 5.0 percent, 25 percent and 83 percent, respectively. During the same period, imports of cigarettes surged by 69 percent; petroleum imports rose slightly by 9.8 percent; while cement and steel showed falls of 46 percent and 71 percent, respectively. In May, the current budget surplus rose by 36 percent from the previous month, rising to KHR 116.1 bn. Revenue collection decreased slightly, by 1.4 percent, stemming from the fall of domestic tax (9.5 percent) and non-tax collection (12 percent), while import and export tax rose by 38 percent. For current expenditure, total expenditure slipped by 12 percent. Of that,

CDRI-Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute – Page 2

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Cambodia Economic Flash Report –July 2009 spending on wages fell by 21 percent, while on social assistance and subsidies spending rose by 58 percent. In May, the year-on-year consumer price index slipped by 5.7 percent, lower than the 3.9 percent of April. The downward trend resulted from the fall in the price of food and non-alcoholic beverages (6.7 percent); housing and utilities (9.6 percent); communication (11 percent); and transportation (15.8 percent), offset by the increase in the price of education (27.3 percent); clothing and footwear (5.8 percent); and house furniture and household operation (5.6 percent). In June, both diesel and gasoline prices increased by 7.4 percent and 6.6 percent compared with the preceding month. During the same month, the price of rice rose in Kampot (15.9 percent), while the price was down in Kampong Cham (Kg.Cham, 2.0 percent) and Svay Rieng (S. Rieng, 3.8 percent). The fish price rose further in Battambang (BB, 12 percent), Kg. Cham (29 percent) and Siem Reap (S.R., 8.3 percent), while the value remained unchanged in Kampong Speu (Kg. Speu). Moreover, there was an increase in the pork price in B.B, Kg. Cham and S.R., while the value was stable in Kampot, Kg. Speu and S. Rieng. In May, Thailand’s export prices for rice and maize decreased by 2.4 percent and 46 percent, while the rubber price showed a slight increase of 1.8 percent. In Vietnam’s market, rice and rubber prices marked a slight increase of 2.5 percent and 2.3 percent, while the price of cashew nuts fell by 4.8 percent. In May, the year-on-year consumer price index slipped in the USA (1.3 percent) and Japan (1.1 percent), while the index was stable in the Euro zone. The trend was similar in China (a 1.4 percent fall), but reverse trends were evident in Hong Kong and S. Korea, marking 0.1 percent and 2.7 percent rises, respectively. The price index was high in Malaysia (2.4 percent) while it was low in Singapore (0.3 percent) and Thailand (3.3 percent). In June, the value of the Hong Kong dollar remained stable from the previous month, while the Korean won depreciated (0.6 percent) against the US dollar. During the same month, the value of Japanese yen, Singapore dollar, Thai baht, and the Euro against the US dollar showed an appreciation of 0.1 percent, 0.6 percent, 1.5 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively. The prices of the main agricultural products on the world market fell in May 2009. Therein, the prices of palm oil, soybeans and maize decreased by 6.1 percent, 7.7 percent, and 14 percent from the preceding month. In June, the international spot price of crude oil was at USD 67.9/barrel, diesel, US cents 46.3/ℓ and gasoline, US cents 49.9/ℓ. The prices of crude oil, diesel and gasoline increased by 24 percent, 19 percent, and 14 percent, respectively, from a month earlier.

CDRI-Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute – Page 3

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –July 2009

skmµPaBesdækic©sMxan;² nig éføTMnijenAkm<úCa
Main Economic Activities and Consumer Prices in Cambodia
Fixed Asset Investment Approvals: Garment Subsector 2006 Q3–2009 Q1
80 70

250

Cambodia: Foreign Visitor Arrivals March 2008–May 2009
Other Business Holiday
2 11

200 000' persons

19 12 12 11

60 USD m 50 40 30 20 10 0 06Q3 06Q4 07Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 37 42

150

100 138 50 146 123

21

16

0 May-08 Sep-08 Jul-08 May-09 Mar-08 Jan-09 Nov-08 Mar-09

Including expansion projects Source: Council for the Development of Cambodia

Source: Ministry of Tourism

Phnom Penh: Value of Construction Approvals

January 2008–March 2009
300 250 200 USD m 150 Other Flats Villas & houses

Phnom Penh: Inflation
(October–December 2006=100)

Year-on-Year Changes for May 2009
30% 20% 10% 0% -6.7% 5.8% 5.6% -15.8% 3.4%
26 3 28

0.3% 27.3%

100

-10% -20%

-5.7%

50 0 Jul-08 Mar-08 Sep-08 Jan-08 May-08 Nov-08 Jan-09

-9.6%

-11.0%

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

All ite m s C lo thing a nd fo o twe a r Ho us e fur. a nd HH o pe . Tra ns po rt R e c re a tio n a nd c ulture

F o o d & no n-a lc o ho lic be ve ra ge s Ho us ing a nd utilitie s M e dic a l c a re C o m m unic a tio n Educ a tio n

Mar-09

Source: National Institute of Statistics

Phnom Penh: Gasoline & Diesel Prices April 2008–June 2009
7000 6000 3651 5000 Riels/ℓ 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Aug-08 Feb-09 Jun-08 Jun-09 Dec-08 Apr-08 Apr-09 Oct-08 Diesel Gasoline

Interest Rates on 12-Month Bank Loans February 2008–April 2009
45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Aug-08 Feb-08 Dec-08 Apr-08 Feb-09 Jun-08 Apr-09 Oct-08 22.5% Dollar loan rate Riel loan rate 21.9% 22.7% 15.8% 16.0% 16.4%

Source: CDRI Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

CDRI-Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute – Page 4

3250

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –July 2009

sßanPaBGRtabþÚrR)ak; nig CMnYyGPivDÆn_BIeRkARbeTs
Exchange Rates and External Development Assistance
Riels per US Dollar April 2008–June 2009
4132 4151 4200 4150 4083 4100 4050 4000 Market rate 3950 3900 Aug-08 Feb-09 Jun-08 Dec-08 Apr-08 Apr-09 Oct-08 Jun-09 Official rate
128 126 KHR per Baht 124 122 120 118 116 114 Aug-08 Feb-09 Jun-08 Dec-08 Apr-08 Apr-09 Oct-08 Jun-09 T hai baht (left) Vietnamese dong (right) 123

Riels per THB & VND April 2008–June 2009
24.9 26 25 23.3 23.4 24 23 122 22 21 20 19 120 KHR per VDN100

4066

4115 4134

Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Monetary Survey February 2008–April 2009
210% 180% 150% 120% 90% 60% 30% 0% -30% Aug-08 Feb-08 Dec-08 Apr-08 Feb-09 Jun-08 Apr-09 Oct-08

Domestic Credit February 2008–April 2009
160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% Aug-08 Feb-08 Dec-08 Apr-08 Feb-09 Jun-08 Apr-09 Oct-08 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

Annua lis e d gro wth ra te (M 2) Annua lis e d gro wth ra te (M 1) Gro wth o ve r the pre vio us 12 m o nths (M 2)

Annua lis e d c ha nge in do m e s tic c re dit (le ft) Annua lis e d c ha nge in priva te s e c to r c re dit (le ft) P re vio us 12 m o nths ' gro wth in do m e s tic c re dit (right)

Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Monetary Operations February 2008–April 2009
14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 -2000 -4000 -6000 Aug-08 Feb-08 Dec-08 Apr-08 Feb-09 Jun-08 Apr-09 Oct-08

External Development Assistance Disbursement:

Community and Social Welfare
2000–2007
90 80 70 60 USD m 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

KHR bn

Liquidity Private Sector Credit Other
Source: National Bank of Cambodia

Net Foreign Assets Government Deposits

Source: Cambodia Aid Effectiveness Report 2007, CDC

CDRI-Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute – Page 5

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –July 2009

BaNiC¢kmµeRkARbeTs nig karGnuvtþfvikaCati
External Trade and National Budget Operations
Imports: Cigarettes & Construction Materials February 2008–April 2009
120 100 80 KHR bn 60 40 59.6 20 0 Aug-08 Feb-08 Dec-08 Apr-08 Feb-09 Jun-08 Apr-09 Oct-08 Cigarettes Cement Steel 19.1 54.9 32.4 19.1 18.5 17.0 10.3
400 350 300 USD m 250 200 150 100 50 0 Feb-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Oct-08 Jun-08

Cambodia: Main Exports February 2008–April 2009
8 7 6 4 3 2 1 0 USD m 5

62.6

Total exports (left) Rubber (right)
Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC Note: revised data for June 08 & January 09

Garments (left) Fish (right)

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Imports: Petroleum Products February 2008–April 2009
120 98.4 100 80 KHR bn 60 40 20 0 Aug-08 Feb-08 Dec-08 Apr-08 Feb-09 Jun-08 Apr-09 Oct-08 89.6 89.6

Current Budget Operations March 2008–May 2009
350 300 250 200 KHR bn 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 Jul-08 Mar-08 Sep-08 May-08 Mar-09 May-09 Nov-08 Jan-09

131

116 85

Source: Economic & Monetary Statistics, NBC

Source: MEF Bulletin

Current Budget Revenue March 2008–May 2009
600 500 400 KHR bn 300 200 100 0 Jul-08 Mar-08 May-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09

Current Budget Expenditure March 2008–May 2009
1400 1200 1000 KHR bn
51 45 69 96
Other services Subsidies and social assistance Wages Current expenditure

50 114

800 600 400 ] 102 52 141 294 May-08 Nov-08 Sep-08 May-09 Mar-08 Mar-09 Jul-08 Jan-09

338

Non-tax Import and Export taxes Domestic taxes

298 270

200 0

Source: MEF website

Source: MEF website

CDRI-Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute – Page 6

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –July 2009

éfømðÚbGahartamextþkñúgRbeTskm<úCa
Provincial Food Prices
Cambodia: Food Prices in Siem Reap Province April 2008–June 2009
21500 18000 Riels/kg 14500 11000 7500 4000 500 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Jun-08 Aug-08 Apr-08 Apr-09 Jun-09 27000 23000 Riels/kg 19000 15000 11000 7000 3000
Riels/kg

Cambodia: Food Prices in Battambang Province April 2008–June 2009
21500 18000 14500 11000 7500 4000 500 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Jun-08 Aug-08 Apr-08 Apr-09 Jun-09 27000 23000 Riels/kg 19000 15000 11000 7000 3000

Rice-Phkar Knhei (left) 1st quality pork (right)

Fresh fish (left) 1st quality beef (right)

Rice-Phkar Knhei (left) 1st quality pork (right)

Fresh fish (left) 1st quality beef (right)

Source: CDRI

Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Food Prices in Kg. Cham Province April 2008–June 2009
21500 18000 Riels/kg 14500 11000 7500 4000 500 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Jun-08 Apr-08 Aug-08 Apr-09 Jun-09 27000 23000 Riels/kg
Riels/kg

Cambodia: Food Prices in Kampot Province April 2008–June 2009
21500 18000 14500 11000 7500 4000 500 Dec-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-08 Apr-08 Aug-08 Apr-09 Jun-09 27000 23000 Riels/kg 19000 15000 11000 7000 3000

19000 15000 11000 7000 3000

Rice-Phkar Knhei(left) 1st quality pork (right)
Source: CDRI

Fresh fish (left) 1st quality beef (right)

Rice-Phkar Knhei(left) 1st quality pork (right)
Source: CDRI

Fresh fish (left) 1st quality beef (right)

Cambodia: Food Prices in Svay Rieng Province April 2008–June 2009 21500 27000
18000 14500 Riels/kg 11000 7500 4000 500 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Jun-08 Apr-08 Aug-08 Apr-09 Jun-09 23000

Cambodia: Food Prices in Kg. Speu Province April 2008–June 2009
25000 21500 18000 14500 11000 7500 4000 500 31000 27000 23000 19000 15000 11000 7000 3000

Riels/kg

19000 15000 11000 7000 3000 Riels/kg

Dec-08

Oct-08

Feb-09

Jun-08

Aug-08

Apr-08

Rice-Phkar Knhei (left) 1st quality pork (right)

Fresh fish (left) 1st quality beef (right)

Rice-Phkar Knhei (left) 1st quality pork (right)
Source: CDRI

Source: CDRI

CDRI-Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute – Page 7

Apr-09

Fresh fish (left) 1st quality beef (right)

Jun-09

Riels/kg

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –July 2009

éføTMnijtamextþkñúgRbeTskm<úCa³ tammuxTMnij
Provincial Goods Prices in Cambodia by Products
Cambodia: Rice Price in Three Provinces (Selected months)
3000 2500 2800 2550 2425 2450 2000 Riels/kg 2100 1500 1000 500 0 Mar-09
Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Rice Price in Three Provinces (Selected months)
3000 2500 2000
2400

2400 2800 2800

2800

2500

2550

Riels/kg

2550

2100 2500

2200 2300

2500

2500

1000 500 0

2200

1500

2600

2550
18000 18000

Battambang Kampong Speu Kampong Cham Apr-09 May-09

Kampot Siem Reap Svay Rieng Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09

Jun-09
Source: CDRI

Jun-09

Cambodia: Fish Price in Three Provinces (Selected months)
14000 12000

Cambodia: Fish Price in Three Provinces (Selected months)
18000 16000 16000 14000

Battambang Kampong Speu Kampong Cham 11500 10250

Riels/kg

10000

10000

10000 8000 8500 6000 4000 2000 0

9000

12000

8000

9750

12000

13000

9000

12000

15000 10000 12000

15000

10000

11000 7725

6000

4000

11000

11000

2000

Kampot Siem Reap Svay Rieng Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09

0 Ma r-09 Apr- 09 Ma y-09 J un-09

7775

Mar-09
Source: CDRI

Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Pork Price in Three Provinces (Selected months)
20000 18000 15000 17000 18000 16000 15000 15500 16500 14000 Riels/kg 12000 10000 17000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Mar-09
Source: CDRI

Cambodia: Pork Price in Three Provinces (Selected months)
18500 18000 17500 17000 Riels/kg 16000 15500 14500 14000 13500 Mar-09
Source: CDRI

Kampot Siem Reap Svay Rieng 18000 17000 18000

16000

14500

17000

16500

16500

17000

16500

16000 15000

16000

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

CDRI-Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute – Page 8

15000

Battambang Kampong Speu Kampong Cham

16000

15000

16000

14000 13000 12000

2500

2500

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –July 2009

éføTMnij karnaMecj nig cMnYneTscrGnþrCatienAkñúgRbeTsCaédKUrbs;km<úCa
Goods Prices, Exports and International Tourist Arrivals to Partners of Cambodia
Thailand: Prices of Rubber, Rice and Maize March 2008–May 2009
1400 1200 USD per tonne 1000 800 600 400 200 Jul-08 Sep-08 May-08 May-09 Jan-09 Mar-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 3000 2500
USD per tonne

Vietnam: Prices of Rubber, Rice and Cashew Nuts March 2008–May 2009
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Jul-08 Mar-09 May-08 May-09 Mar-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09
USD per tonne

13000 11000 9000 7000 5000 3000 1000
USD per tonne

2000 1500 1000 500 0

Rice (left) Rubber (right) Maize and Maize Products (right)
Source: Bank of Thailand, Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments

Rice (left) Cashew nuts (right)

Rubber (right)

Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam

900 800 700 USD m 600 500 400 300 200

Thailand: Exports to the World March 2008–May 2009

4.0 3.5 3.0
USD m

480 400

Vietnam: Exports to the World March 2008–May 2009

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 USD m

2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 May-08 Jul-08 May-09 Mar-08 Jan-09 Nov-08 Mar-09 Sep-08

USD m

320 240 160 80 0 Jul-08 Sep-08 Mar-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 May-08 Mar-09 May-09

Rice (left) Natural rubber and similar natural gums (left) Cashew and similar nuts (right)
Source: Customs Department of Thailand

Rice (left) Cashew nuts (right)
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam

Rubber (left)

Thailand: International Arrivals October 2006–December 2007*
1600 1400 1200 000 persons

Vietnam: International Arrivals March 2008–May 2009
700 600 500 000' persons 400 300 200 100 0 Sep-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 May-08 May-09 Mar-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Others Business T ourism

Air

Land

Sea

1000 800 600 400 200 0 Aug-07 Feb-07 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Apr-07 Oct-06 Oct-07

Source: Tourism Authority of Thailand *Data is available to December 2007

Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam Data was estimated by the statistics office

CDRI-Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute – Page 9

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –July 2009

skmµPaBesdækic© nig sßanPaBGRtaGtiprNaénbNþaRbeTsCaédKUrbs;km<úCa
Economic Activity and Inflation Rates of Selected Economic Partners of Cambodia
Y-on-Y Growth of Main Product Exports: Japan October 2008–May 2009
30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60%
17.3%

Goods Exports: US, Euro Zone & Japan April 2008–April 2009
250

1.8%

3%

US

Euro zone

Japan

200
-15%
-8.5% -16.0%

-32.7%

-34%

-33.7%

-33.4%

-40%

-38%

-37.5%

-37%

USD bn

-23%

150 100 50 0

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

-41%

Apr-09

Manufactured goods Electricial machinery Total

Machinery Transport equipment

Aug-08

Source: Japanese Trade and Investment Statistics

Sources: BEA, Eurostat and OECD

External Trade: Malaysia May 2008–May 2009
6%
25 20 15 10 5 0
M ay-08

Inflation Rates: US, Euro Zone & Japan (price change from a year earlier)
5%
USA Euro zone Japan

Exports Imports Trade balance

4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% May-08

USD bn

Dec-08

Mar-09

Jul-08

Sep-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Nov-08

M ar-09

Sep-08

M ay-09

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia

Note: The latest data available are for May 2009 Sources: IMF and The Economist (05 July 2009)

Inflation Rate: China, Hong Kong & South Korea (price change from a year earlier)
9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% May-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09
China H ong K ong South Korea

Inflation Rate: Selected ASEAN Countries (price change from a year earlier)
10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% Jul-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 May-08 Sep-08
Malaysia Singapore Thailand

Mar-09

May-09

Nov-08

Jan-09

Note: The latest data available are for May 2009 Sources: IMF and The Economist (05 July 2009)

Note: The latest data available are for May 2009 Sources: IMF and The Economist (05 July 2009)

CDRI-Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute – Page 10

May-09

Apr-09

Apr-08

Feb-09

Oct-08

Jun-08

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –July 2009

GRtabþÚrR)ak; nig sßanPaBéføTMnijelITIpSarGnþrCati
Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices in World Markets KRW & HKD per USD June 2008–June 2009 (monthly average)
7.92 7.90 7.88 7.86 7.84 HKD 7.82 7.80 7.78 7.76 7.74 7.72 Aug-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Oct-08 Jun-08 Jun-09
HKD (left scale) KRW (right scale)

EUR & JPY per USD June 2008–June 2009 (monthly average)
0.87 0.84 0.81 0.78
EUR
EURO(left scale) JPY (right scale)

1510 1450 1390 1330 1270 1210 1150 1090 1030 970 910 KRW

126 122 118 114 JPY
IPO

0.75 0.72 0.69 0.66 0.63 0.60
Dec-08 Aug-08 Apr-09 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-08 Jun-09

110 106 102 98 94 90

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

THB & SGD Per USD June 2008–June 2009 (monthly average)
42
THB (left scale)

Rice: International Prices Index & Export Prices May 2008–May2009
1050 950 850
USD / tonne FOB

1.56
SGD (right scale)

450 400 350 300 250 200 150
USA 2/4 Thai 100% B IPO

40 38

1.53 1.50

750 650 550 450 350 250 150 Sep-08 May-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jan-09 May-09 Jul-08

THB

34 32 30 28 Dec-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09

1.44 1.41 1.38 1.35

SGD

36

1.47

100 50 0

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Sources: Osiriz/InfoArroz and InterRice.

Prices: Soybeans, Maize & Palm Oil May 2008–May 2009
600 2400

Prices: Crude Oil, Gasoline & Diesel June 2008–June 2009
150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Aug-08 Oct-08 Jun-08
Crude oil: OPEC spot USD/barrel Gasoline: US Gulf Coast - US cents/litre (right scale) Diesel: low sulphur No.2 - US cents/litre (right scale)

500

2000

USD / tonne FOB

400

1600

300

1200

200

800

100

S o y b e a n s : U S N o .1 , Y e llo w ( le f t s c a le ) M a iz e : U S N o .2 , Y e ll o w ( le f t s c a le ) P a lm O il: c r u d e ( r ig h t s c a le )

400

150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

0
Sep-08 Jan-09 Jul-08 May-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 May-09

0

Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation

Source: US Energy Information Administration

CDRI-Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute – Page 11

Jun-09

US Cent

USD

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –July 2009

B½t’manesdækic©
Economic News

B½t’manesdækic©sMxan;² Gas‘ankMBg;EtQandl;karGnum½tRbB½n§):atg;rYmKñaEtmYy ³ smaKmn_ RbCaCatiGasIuGaeKñy_ kMBugEtQandl;karGnum½trbb)a:tg;rYmKñaEtmYy dUcenAshPaBGWur:ub CamYynwgkarpSBVpSayKMnitpþÜcepþIm edIm,ICMruj eGaydMeNIrkarRtYtBinitükarGnuvtþ):atg;enAkñúgtMbn; manPaBcuHsRmug Kña . elak Adrian Cristobal Jr. GKÁnaykkariyal½ykmµsiT§bBaØa énRbeTshVIlIBIn (IP Philis.) )anbBa¢ak;tamry³Epñkkic©shRbtibtþikar RtYtBinitü):atg;Gas‘an (Aspec) fa GñkbegáItfµI nigshRKinnana Edl)andak;BaküsMu):atg;enARbeTshVIlIBIn GaceRbIlT§plRtYtBinitüBI kariyal½yrbs;elakenATIenH edIm,Idak;BaküsMu):atg;enARbeTssmaCik ÉeTot² . elakbnþeTotfa RbB½n§enHGacCYysnSMeBlevla nigFnFan sMrab;;GñkbegáItfµI kñúgkaresñIsMu):atg;rbs;BYkeK . elak Crisobal )anbEnßmfa karRtYtBinitürbs; Aspec GnuvtþEtelIkaresñIsMu):atg; EdlRKan;EtCamYyPaKéndMeNIrkarb:ueNÑaH b:uEnþvaCakarcUlrYmcMENk d¾FMmYy kñúgkmµviFIshKmn_esdækic©Gas‘an EdleRKagnwgcab;epþImGnuvtþ enAqñaM2015 . elak Cristobal bc©úb,nñCa RbFanKN³kmµaFikar sMrbsMrYlkic©karGas‘ansMrab;eKalneya)aykmµsiT§ibBaØa nigkic©sh Rbtibtþikar )anR)ab;GñkykB½t’manfa {enHCakarcab;epþImd¾l¥mYyedIm,I xwtxMbegáItkic©RBmeRBogkñúgtMbn; EdlnwgCYysMrYldl; GñkécñRbDitfµI GñkviTüasaRsþ nigshRKinTaMgGs; kñúgkarTTYl)an):atg; . RbB½n§enH nwgkat;bnßyéføeFVIGaCIvkmµ ehIyeyIgsgÇwmfa vanwgTak;TajvinieyaKin breTsmkvinieyaKkñúgtMbn;enH }. elak )anbnþfa kñúgeBlbc©úb,nñ rbbeRbI):atg;kñúgtMbn; enAEtmanlkçN³tamRbeTs eBalKW Gñkcg;)an ):atg;enAkñúgRbeTsGas‘anNamYy RtUvdak;BaküsMueTAsmtßkic©kñúg RbeTsenaH . elak Cristobal )anbBa©ak;fa Aspec CaCMhanmYy kñúgkarksagTMnukcitþelIPaBs¥ats¥Mrbs; mRnþIxagkmµsiT§ibBaØakñúgtMbn; kñúgkarRtYtBinitüBaküsMu):atg; . CamYyKñaenHEdr elak Cristobal )aneGaydwgfa yuT§nakarRbqaMgkarlYccMlgxusc,ab; )annaM[mankar rwbGUsTMnijEkøgbnøMd¾RcInelIslb; EdlmantMélCag 3/3Ban;lan R)ak;eb:sU cab;BIExmkra dl;mifuna 2009 . elak Cristobal elIkfa yuT§nakarRbqaMgkarlYccMlgxusc,ab; nwgjúaMg[karrwbGUsGIv:an;EkøgbnøM kñúgqñaM2009enH mantMélsrubelIsBI 3/5Ban;laneb:sU EdlCatMél énkarrwbGUs\v:an;EkøgbnøMsrub ¬rYmbBa©ÚlTaMgm:asuIncMlgbIeRKOg EdlmantMél):an;sµansrubdl; 200laneb:sU¦ sMerc)an kñúgGMLúgeBl eBjmYyqñaM2008 .

Economic News Highlights: ASEAN moving closer to single-patenting system: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is moving closer to a single-patenting regime just like in the European Union with the launch of initiatives to harmonize the examination process for patent applications in the region. Adrian Cristobal Jr., Director-General of the Intellectual Property Office of the Philippines (IP Phils.), said through the Asean Patent Examination Cooperation (Aspec), innovators and entrepreneurs who applied for patents in the Philippines can use the result of his examination reports here in applying for patents in other membercountries. He said this would save the innovators time and resources for their patent applications. Cristobal said while Aspec only covers examination of the patent application, which is just one part of the process, it will be a big contribution to the Asean Economic Community program that is slated to start in 2015. “It’s a good start to try to set up a regional arrangement that will make it easier for inventors, scientist and entrepreneurs to obtain patents. It cuts the cost of doing business, and hopefully, also, this will attract foreign investment into the region,” Cristobal, currently the chair of the Asean Coordinating Committee on Intellectual Property Policy and Cooperation, told reporters. He said the patent regime in the region will still be territorial for now, which means those who want to seek patents in any Asean member-country will have to apply in each jurisdiction. Still, Cristobal said the Aspec will be a step to building confidence on the integrity of IP officers in the region to examine patent applications. Meanwhile, Cristobal reported that the campaign against piracy has led to the confiscation of over 3.3 billion peso worth of counterfeit items from January to June this year. This, Cristobal said, means that the haul for the anti-piracy campaign this year will surely exceed the 3.5 billion peso worth of confiscated items in the whole of 2008. Included in the confiscated items are three replicating machines with a total estimated value of 200 million peso. Links to other economic news: 1. “Can ASEAN boost domestic-demand-led growth” (http://www.1888pressrelease.com/sixth-aseanleadership-forum-asean-urged-to-boost-domestic-pr128250.html) 2. “China-ASEAN investment deal to be sealed soon” (http://meltwaternews.com/prerobot/sph.asp?pub=ST&sp hurl=www.straitstimes.com//Asia/China/Story/STIStory_ 395975.html) 3. “Impending ASEAN-India FTA to be sealed in August” (http://www.mediabuzz.com.sg/asianchannels/june-2009/489-impending-asean-india-fta-to-besealed-in-august-2009)

CDRI-Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute – Page 12

Cambodia Economic Flash Report –July 2009

CDRI-Cambodia’s Leading Independent Development Policy Research Institute – Page 13


				
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