An Overview of Light Vehicle
An Overview of Light Vehicle
Retailing in the U.S.
Retailing in the U.S.
Twelfth Annual Automotive Outlook Symposium
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Detroit Branch
June 3, 2005
Paul Taylor, NADA Chief Economist
National Automobile Dealers Association
McLean, VA
U.S. New & Used Unit Sales
U.S. New & Used Unit Sales
18
16
M illions of Units
14
New
12
Used - Retail
10
8
6
4
78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04
Year
Source: NADA Industry Analysis 2
Percentage Increase/Decrease in U.S.
Percentage Increase/Decrease in U.S.
New Light-Vehicle Sales by
New Light-Vehicle Sales by
Manufacturer, full-year 2004
Manufacturer, full-year 2004
GM
Ford
Chrysler
Honda
BMW
Toyota
Nissan
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Source: Ward’s Automotive
3
Percentage Increase/Decrease in U.S.
Percentage Increase/Decrease in U.S.
New Light-Vehicle Sales by
New Light-Vehicle Sales by
Manufacturer YTD April 2005
Manufacturer YTD April 2005
GM
Ford
Chrysler
Honda
BMW
Toyota
Nissan
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Source: Ward’s Automotive
4
Crossover Utility Vehicles and
Large Cars Led Sales in 2004
Crossover Utility Vehicles
Large Cars
Minivans, Vans
Pickups
Small Cars
Midsize Cars
Luxury Cars
Truck-based SUVs
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Source: Ward’s Automotive
5
Large Cars and Crossover Utility
Vehicles (CUVs) Lead Sales Growth
(CUVs)
YTD April 2005
YTD April 2005
Large Cars
Crossover Utility Vehicles
Small Cars
Minivans, Vans
Pickups
Midsize Cars
Luxury Cars
Truck-based SUVs
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Source: Ward’s Automotive
6
Crossover Utility Vehicle Unit Sales
2003 and 2004
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
2003
100,000
2004
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Chrysler Ford Escape Honda CRV Honda Pilot Subaru Toyota Toyota RAV4
Pacifica Forester Highlander
Source: Ward’s Automotive 7
Crossover Utility Vehicle Unit Sales
YTD April 2004 and YTD April 2005
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
Apr-04
Apr-05
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Chrysler Ford Escape Honda CR-V Honda Pilot Saturn VUE Subaru Toyota Toyota RAV4
Pacifica Forester Highlander
Source: Ward’s Automotive
8
% Change in Crossover Utility Vehicle Unit Sales
% Change in Crossover Utility Vehicle Unit Sales
YTD April 2004 to YTD April 2005
YTD April 2004 to YTD April 2005
Chrysler Pacifica
Ford Escape
Honda CR-V
Honda Pilot
Saturn VUE
Subaru Forester
Toyota Highlander
Toyota RAV4
-30.0% -25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0%
Source: Ward’s Automotive
9
Best Selling Trucks by Unit Sales
YTD April 2004 and YTD April 2005
300,000
250,000
200,000
04/04
150,000
04/05
100,000
50,000
0
n
pe
er
r ty
er
ra
ma
do
e
ine
up
s
va
ri e
ke
or
er
az
ca
be
ra
ck
co
ol
ra
ro
Si
pl
Se
Bl
Es
l ve
Li
Pi
on
Ca
Ta
Ex
he
ai l
F-
Si
Ec
m
dC
Tr
rd
Ra
Fo
an
Gr
Source: Ward’s Automotive
10
% Change in Best Selling Truck Unit
Sales, YTD April 2004 to YTD April 2005
Ford F-Series
Silverado
Ram Pickup
Explorer
TrailBlazer
Caravan
Grand Cherokee
Sierra
Escape
Econoline
Liberty
Tacoma
-25.0% -20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%
Source: Ward’s Automotive
11
Volume of Large Regular Car Sales,
YTD April 2004 and YTD April 2005
60,000
50,000
40,000
YTD Apr. 2004
30,000
YTD Apr. 2005
20,000
10,000
0
Buick Chrysler 300 Ford Crown Ford Five Mercury Mercury Nissan Pontiac Toyota
LeSabre Series Victoria Hundred Grand Montego Maxima Bonneville Avalon
Source: Ward’s Automotive (New) Marquis (New)
12
Volume of Middle Cross/Utility Vehicle Sales,
Volume of Middle Cross/Utility Vehicle Sales,
YTD April 2004 and YTD April 2005
YTD April 2004 and YTD April 2005
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
YTD Apr. 2004
30,000
YTD Apr. 2005
20,000
10,000
0
Buick Chev rolet Ford Escape Ford Freestyle Pontiac Aztek Saturn Vue
Rendezv ous Equinox (New)
Source: Ward’s Automotive
13
Volume of Middle Luxury Cross/Utility
Vehicle Sales
YTD April 2004 and YTD April 2005
25,000
20,000
15,000
YTD Apr.
2004
YTD Apr.
2005
10,000
5,000
0
Acura MDX Audi AllRoad BMW X3 BMW X5 Cadillac SRX Infiniti FX Lexus RX 330
Source: Ward’s Automotive
14
Volume of Large Sport/Utility Vehicle Sales
YTD April 2004 and YTD April 2005
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
YTD Apr.
2004
30,000 YTD Apr.
2005
20,000
10,000
0
Chevrolet Chevrolet Dodge Ford Ford GMC Yukon GMC Yukon Nissan Toyota
Suburban Tahoe Durango Excursion Expedition XL Armada Sequoia
Source: Ward’s Automotive
15
Volume of Large Luxury
Sport/Utility Vehicle Sales
YTD April 2004 and YTD April 2005
12,000
10,000
8,000
YTD Apr.
6,000
2004
YTD Apr.
2005
4,000
2,000
0
Cadillac Cadillac Hummer H1 Hummer H2 Infiniti QX56 Land Rover Lexus LX Lincoln Toyota Land
Escalade Escalade Range 470 Navigator Cruiser
ESV Rover
Source: Ward’s Automotive
16
Volume of Large Pickup Sales, YTD
April 2004 and YTD April 2005
300,000
250,000
200,000
YTD Apr.
150,000 2004
YTD Apr.
2005
100,000
50,000
0
Cadillac Chevrolet Chevrolet Dodge Ram Ford F- GMC Sierra Lincoln Nissan Titan Toyota
Escalade Avalanche Silverado Series Mark LT '06 Tundra
EXT (New)
Source: Ward’s Automotive
17
Percent Change for Large Pickup Sales
YTD April 2005 over YTD April 2004
YTD April 2005 over YTD April 2004
Cadillac Escalade EXT
Chevrolet Avalanche
Chevrolet Silverado
Dodge Ram
Ford F-Series
GMC Sierra
Lincoln Mark LT '06 (New)
Nissan Titan
Toyota Tundra
-40.00% -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%
Source: Ward’s Automotive
18
Total Sales, Big 3 versus "Big 3 Asia-Badge"
Total Sales, Big 3 versus "Big 3 Asia-Badge"
Full-Size Pickup Sales, 1995-2005
Full-Size Pickup Sales, 1995-2005
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
Domestic Total
Import Total
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
5
6
7
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
r- 9
-9
-9
-9
-9
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
p-
p-
p-
p-
p-
p-
p-
p-
p-
p-
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
Ma
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
Se
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
Source: Ward’s Automotive
19
Automakers increased incentives to boost sales,
Automakers increased incentives to boost sales,
but decreased average incentives late last year
but decreased average incentives late last year
$3,500
$3,000
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
M r
M r
M r
M r
Se l
ar
Se l
Se l
Se l
ay
ay
ay
ay
p
p
p
p
02 ov
03 ov
04 ov
05 ov
n
n
n
n
n
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ju
a
a
a
a
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
M
M
M
M
M
20 N
20 N
20 N
20 N
01
20
Source: Autodata 20
Median Vehicle Age
Median Vehicle Age
9.0
8.5
Median vehicle age in years
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0 Cars
5.5 Trucks
5.0
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
Source: RL Polk 21
U.S. Household Net
U.S. Household Net
Financial Assets
Financial Assets
$25
Net Household Wealth = Total Financial Assets - Total Liabilities
(excludes home equity but includes all mortgage debt)
$20
$15
$ Trillions
$10
$5
$0
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
20
Source: Federal Reserve Flow of Funds Data, Z.l., Table L.10.
22
Consumer Confidence
Consumer Confidence
Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index
Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index
Gulf War War
Iraq4-Aug
4-Aug
160 120%
Consumer Confidence Index
140 100%
120 80%
100 60%
80 40%
Consumer Confidence Index
60 20%
40 0%
Ja 9
Ja 0
Ja 1
Ja 2
Ja 3
Ja 4
Ja 5
Ja 6
Ja 7
Ja 8
Ja 9
Ja 0
Ja 1
Ja 2
Ja 3
Ja 4
05
8
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
0
0
0
0
0
n-
n-
n-
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
Ja
Source: Commerce Dept, Conference Board 23
NADA Dealer Optimism Index remains
NADA Dealer Optimism Index remains
at Relatively Strong Levels
at Relatively Strong Levels
180
160
NADA Index Measure
140
120
100
80
60
40
1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
Source: NADA Industry Analysis 24
NADA Dealer Optimism Index
180
Optimism
160
NADA Index Measure
140
120
Sales
100
80
60
40
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
19
19
19
20
Source: NADA Industry Analysis 25
Number of Dealerships
Modest, Orderly Consolidation Since 1970
Modest, Orderly Consolidation Since 1970
35,000
Recession
30,000
Recession
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20
Source: NADA Industry Analysis
26