For further information: Ken Goldstein 212-339-0331 Ken.goldstein@conference-board.org
For Release 10:00 AM ET, Thursday, August 20, 2009
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. Increases Again Fourth Consecutive Increase
NEW YORK, August 20, 2009…The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.6 percent in July, following a 0.8 percent gain in June, and a 1.2 percent rise in May. Says Ken Goldstein, Economist at The Conference Board: “The indicators suggest that the recession is bottoming out, and that economic activity will likely begin recovering soon. The Coincident Economic Index was flat in July – the first time it did not register a decline since October 2008. The Leading Economic Index, which has increased for four consecutive months, suggests that the CEI will turn positive soon.” The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in July, following 0.4 percent declines in both June and May. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index™ (LAG) declined 0.3 percent in July, following a 0.7 percent decline in June, and a 0.6 percent decline in May.
Index (2004 =100) 108 107 106 105 104 103 102 101
100
Beginning of Recession Dec' 07
Jul '07
CEI LEI
99
98
97 96 95 94
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index™ (CEI) for the United States The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the United States
Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes 2009 May Jun Jul
6-month Jan to Jul
Leading index Percent Change Diffusion Coincident Index Percent Change Diffusion Lagging Index Percent Change Diffusion n.a. Not available p Preliminary Indexes equal 100 in 2004 Source: The Conference Board
100.2 1.2 r 70.0 100.1 r -.4 r 0.0 111.9 r -.6 r 7.1 r Revised
101.0 r .8 r 70.0 99.7 p -.4 p 25.0 111.1 p -.7 p 21.4
101.6 p .6 p 70.0 99.7 p .0 p 75.0 110.8 p -.3 p 14.3
3.0 85.0
-2.7 0.0
-3.2 7.1