June 27, 2011
Commodity Prices
(MCX)
Commodity Newsletter Crude
Gold
4126
22199
Top Stories so far... Silver 51840
BIS warns low rates may create 'financial distortions'
Copper 407.15
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that low interest rates across the Nickel 994.80
globe are a threat to world financial stability. The BIS warned low cost of borrowing had
resulted in a credit and property price boom that was fuelling inflation, especially in emerg- Lead 115.25
ing economies. Central banks across the globe have cut interest rates in an attempt to boost
growth after the 2008 financial crisis Zinc 100.20
Deputy PM warns austerity vote may fail
Greece's deputy prime minister has said key cuts and fundraising measures may not be Indices & Currencies
passed by parliament. Greece must pass new austerity measures to trigger the release of
more bail-out cash from the EU and IMF - crucial if the country is to stay afloat. US Dollar Index 74.07
Euro-Dollar Index 1.41
US economic growth is revised upwards
USD - INR 45.02
The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.9% in the first three months of the year,
slightly faster than previously thought, official figures have shown. This equates to a 0.5%
quarterly rise. The last estimate by the Commerce Department showed growth of 1.8%.
This compares with an annualised rate of 3.1% in the final quarter of 2010
Short-term moving
Sources : BBC World averages
Technical Recommendation Crude
Gold Silver
Oil
RECO STOP
Date COMM. RECO TGT COMMENT
PRICE LOSS 3-Day
22500 53600 4212
SMA
27-6-2011 Crude Buy 4072 4059 4099 Fresh Call
12-Day
22510 54500 4320
SMA
21-Day
22410 54425 4385
SMA
Crucial Levels
3-Day
Weak Strong 22537 53636 4232
COMMODITY LTP TGT TGT EMA
Below Above
12-Day
GOLD 22199 22000 20700 22100 22530 22514 54608 4331
EMA
SILVER 51840 56000 53200 55300 58000 21-Day
EMA 22469 54648 4398
CRUDE 4126 4420 4200 4330 4470
Action in Precious Metals and Base Metals
Precious Metal
Gold was off lows on Friday as the dollar eased with a bounce in the euro on news Greece has reached a deal with international
lenders on an austerity plan, but traders were keeping an eye on the currency market. U.S. Republicans walked out of budget
talks on Thursday, setting up a showdown between President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner over how to ex-
tend U.S. borrowing and avoid a looming debt default.
Base Metal
Base metals advanced slightly on the LME on Friday morning when investors took some succour from EU policymakers’ sup-
port of Greek budget cuts, which are scheduled to be finalised next week.
New Greek finance minister Evangelos Venizelos agreed measures for extra tax rises and spending cuts to plug a funding gap of
3.8 billion euros. The new austerity measures are expected to be passed through the parliament next week in exchange for a sec-
ond bailout package worth 120 billion euros.
“Some positive spin from the EU summit and a strong run in equities in Asia this morning may well underpin a rebound in the
metals,” FastMarkets analyst William Adams said. “But we still feel the climate is weak overall so we see this as a step higher
within the two-steps-down one-step-up pattern.”
The dollar was stable on Friday, trading at 1.4230 against the euro, as markets digest the news of an increase in oil supplies in
the US.
Later today, traders will be watching for US durable goods orders for May and the final reading for first-quarter GDP, both due
for release at 13:30 BST.
Crude Oil
Oil prices fell below $91 a barrel Monday in Asia as a stronger U.S. dollar made crude more expensive for investors with other
currencies. Benchmark oil for August delivery was down 55 cents to $90.61 a barrel at midday Singapore time in electronic
trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude rose 14 cents to settle at $91.16 on Friday. In London, Brent crude for
August delivery was down 73 cents to $104.39 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.
Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter Monarch Group of Companies Page 2
Technical Call
Lead (Hourly)
Prices has multiple support at 4064 levels and we ex-
pect some bounce back from this levels.
Impact Of Major Economic Events on Currencies :
Event Time Currency Events Actual Forecast Previous
6:00pm 1:30pm EUR German Ifo Business Climate 113.6 114.2
Up Next6:00pm 1:30pm EUR Italian Retail Sales m/m -0.10% -0.20%
Up Next6:00pm Day 2 EUR EU Economic Summit .4% .4%
8:30pm 3:00pm GBP BOE Gov King Speaks
Sources : Forex Factory High Impact Medium Impact Low Impact
Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter Monarch Group of Companies Page 3
Call Performance (Week to Date)
Summary Table
Total Calls Target Stop Loss Success Ratio
426 352 74 82.70%
Net
Reco STOP TGT/SL Profit /
Date Comm. Reco TGT Comment
Price LOSS Date Loss
(in Rs.)*
Intraday calls
24/06/2011 Lead Sell 115.2 114.5 115.80 24/06/2011 2000 TGT ACHIEVED
24/06/2011 Nickel Sell 1002 980 1010 24/06/2011 250000 Open
24/06/2011 Silver Buy 51999 52500 51800 24/06/2011 12000 TGT ACHIEVED
24/06/2011 Gold Buy 22320 22400 22300 24/06/2011 4500 TGT ACHIEVED
23/06/2011 Crude Buy 4185 4224 4224 23/06/2011 -1100 SL HIT
23/06/2011 Copper Buy 397 404 397 23/06/2011 4300 TGT ACHIEVED
22/06/2011 Copper Buy 402.5 405.2 400.5 22/06/2011 2700 TGT ACHIEVED
22/06/2011 Crude Buy 4214 4250 4199 22/06/2011 3600 TGT ACHIEVED
22/06/2011 Aluminium Buy 112.4 #REF! 113.65 22/06/2011 4250 TGT ACHIEVED
21/06/2011 Silver Sell 54250 54030 54350 21/06/2011 6600 TGT ACHIEVED
20/06/2011 Copper Buy 403.25 406 402 20/06/2011 -1250 SL HIT
20/06/2011 Lead Buy 107.8 108.8 107.3 20/06/2011 5000 TGT ACHIEVED
17/06/2011 Lead Buy 110.6 111.6 110.35 17/06/2011 5000 TGT ACHIEVED
17/02/2011 Silver Sell 52990 52840 53090 17/02/2011 -3000 SL HIT
17/02/2011 Aluminium Buy 113.2 113.7 113 17/02/2011 2500 TGT ACHIEVED
16/06/2011 Aluminium Buy 113.1 114 112.6 16/06/2011 4500 TGT ACHIEVED
16/06/2011 Copper Buy 403.3 406 401 16/06/2011 2700 TGT ACHIEVED
15/06/2011 Aluminium Sell 117.55 116.6 118 15/06/2011 4750 TGT ACHIEVED
15/06/2011 Lead Sell 115.4 114.5 115.85 15/06/2011 4500 TGT ACHIEVED
14/06/2011 Aluminium Buy 115 115.9 114.6 14/06/2011 4500 TGT ACHIEVED
* Assumed Net Profit/ Loss is based on one lot .
Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter
Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter
Monarch Group of Companies
Monarch Group of Companies Page 4
Report performance ( Positional)
Summary Table ( Positional Calls)
Total Calls Target Stop Loss Success Ratio
21 19 2 90%
Net
Reco STOP- TGT/SL Profit /
Date Comm. Reco TGT Comment
Price LOSS Date Loss
(in Rs.)*
Positional Call (Open)
17-6-2011 Nickel Buy 972 960 997-1005 17-6-2011 8250 TGT ACHIEVED
Positional Calls (Performance)
30-5-2011 Nickel Buy 1035 1010 1072-95 1-5-2011 8500 1st TGT
18/05/2011 Aluminium Buy 112.5 110 11650 27-5-2011 20000 TGT ACHIEVED
09/05/2011 Silver Buy 54500 53450 57700 09/05/2011 96000 TGT ACHIEVED
02/05/2011 Zinc Buy 99 95 102 04/05/2011 15000 TGT ACHIEVED
23/04/2011 Lead Buy 116.5 113 122 29-4-2011 -17500 SL HIT
17/04/2011 Copper Buy 417 410 437 23/04/2011 20000 TGT ACHIEVED
05/04/2011 Zinc Buy 105 103 108 11/04/2011 15000 TGT ACHIEVED
25/02/2011 Crude Sell 4550 4670 4250 03/03/2011 30000 TGT ACHIEVED
21/02/2011 Silver Sell 49900 50400 48600 22/02/2011 39000 TGT ACHIEVED
07/02/2011 Gold Buy 20180 20030 20500 10/02/2011 32000 TGT ACHIEVED
21--12-2010 Crude Buy 4020 3820 4230 19/01/2011 21000 TGT ACHIEVED
30/12/2010 Silver Sell 46500 47400 44300 05/01/2011 66000 TGT ACHIEVED
25/11/2010 Zinc Buy 95 89 105 07/12/2010 50000 TGT ACHIEVED
19/11/2010 Crude Buy 3740 3705 3800 19/11/2011 6000 TGT ACHIEVED
09/11/2010 Crude Sell 3890 3953 3760 17/11/2010 13000 TGT ACHIEVED
12/10/2010 Zinc Buy 102 98 111 22/10/2010 45000 TGT ACHIEVED
14/10/2010 Lead Buy 104 100 114 25/10/2010 50000 TGT ACHIEVED
* Assumed Net Profit/ Loss is based on one lot .
Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter Monarch Group of Companies Page 5
PAIR TRADE PERFORMANCE
Summary Table ( Positional Calls)
Total Calls Target Stop Loss Success Ratio
17 15 2 90%
TGT/SL
Date Commo Reccom Reco Price TGT SL Net P&l ROI
Date
17/3/2011 Lead Sell 118 10000 5000 23-3-2011 5000 10%
17/3/2011 Copper Buy 421
15/2/2011 Nickel Sell 1306 13000 3500 8/2/2011 20000l 21%
15/2/2011 Aluminium Buy 113
3/2/2011 Crude Sell 4200 93000 16000 8/2/2011 92290 54%
3/2/2011 Silver Buy 43350
31/01/2011 Crude Sell 4205 67000 19000 5/2/2011 66800 27%
31/01/2011 Gold Buy 19920
27/1/2011 Copper Sell 438 26000 9000 31/1/2011 26000 26%
27/1/2011 Aluminium Buy 108.2
* Assumed Net Profit/ Loss is based on one lot .
Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter Monarch Group of Companies Page 6
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Report Heading: Commodity Newsletter Monarch Group of Companies Page 7