Projected dependency ratios of Hong Kong population, 2006 ­ 2036

							Discussion on a very low fertility rate: Challenges and Opportunities 20th March, 2007 Social and Public Policy Rountable, Hong Kong
Paul Yip
Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science The University of Hong Kong

Introduction
Over the past 25 years, the population of Hong Kong has changed rapidly - Slower growth rate - Imbalance sex ratios - Ageing

Motivation and rationale

Increasing fertility:
remove of the obstacles for parenthood and childbearing in Hong Kong

Replacement migration:
slow down the ageing process and to maintain a viable economic active population in Hong Kong

Age-specific fertility rates of Hong Kong, 1971-2004
300 Live birhts per 1,000 women 250 200 150 100 50 0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2004

Change in TFR, Italy, France, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong from 1950 to 2000, prospects to 2050
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
1950-1955 1960-1965 1970-1975 1980-1985 1990-1995 2000-2005 2010-2015 2020-2025 2030-2035 2040-2045

Italy France Japan Singapore Hong Kong

Reasons for decline of TFR
Increase in the number of never married spinsterhood (50%) Reduction on marital fertility rate (25%) Late marriage (median age on first marriage: 30 males and 27 females) (25%)

Mean age of mothers by live birth order, 1981-2003
36 34 M ean age at birth 32 30 28 26 24 1981

1st parity 2nd parity 3rd parity 4th parity 1986 1991 1996 2001

Proportion of live births in Hong Kong by cohabitating parents, 1981-2003
8% 7% Proportion of live births 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

Economic and working conditions
Financial consideration: Long working hours: Social environment: education, politics etc

Sex ratios of Hong Kong population by age, 1996 – 2006
1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 1996 1998 <15 2000 15 - 24 2002 25 - 39 40 -59 2004 60+ 2006

One way permit holder
Every day there are 150 mainlanders coming to Hong Kong, spouse, children and others. For spouses: 20-34.(more than 180 thousands for last decade)

Cross border marriage

Cross-border Marriages(HKM vs MF) 1986-2004
30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1986 1991 1996 2001 Marriages registered in HK Issue of CAMR Total

Sex distribution among the OWP
Pyramid for OWP Holders 2005
male 80 to 84 70 to 74

80 to 84 70 to 74

female

60 to 64 60 to 64 50 to 54 50 to 54 40 to 44 40 to 44 30 to 34 30 to 34
20 to 24 20 to 24 10 to 14 10 to 14 0-4 4000 2000 0

0-4 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Ageing: Dependency ratios of Hong Kong population, 1996 – 2006
450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 1996 1998 2000 Child 2002 Elderly Total 2004 2006

Demographic Window(60 vs 65)

Population Distribution without migration

Projected dependency ratios of Hong Kong population, 2006 – 2036

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 Child Elderly Total

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

0.6 0.4 0.2 0
2001 - 06 2006 - 11 2011 - 16 2016 - 21 2021 - 26 2026 - 31 2031 - 36

-0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1

7200 7000 6800 6600 6400 6200 6000 5800

2006

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

Series1 6857.1 6947.6 6954.6 6885 6736.7 6509.3 6248.1

Replacement migration:
Less than 1000 people joining Hong Kong last year with 3.5 million work force!!

Three-fold challenges
How to revert the low fertility: Replacement Migration: Healthy Population:

Low fertility About 60% reduction is due to change of marital distribution rather than the reduction of marital fertility. Promoting fertility, CE suggested to have three. However the married one on average have 2 already. Engage the newborns from Mainland born mothers in Hong Kong Family friendly work practice: including longer maternal or paternal leave for parents, child care facilities, tax reduction and shortening of working hours.

Replacement migration
About more than 80% of the population growth from migration. (open population: in and not out) The new comers rejuvenate and inject new blood into the community. They are not coming and not very stable (38100 one-way permit holders in 2004; 55,000 in 2005). Impact on the labour force: postponement of the retirement age. Successful experience in Shanghai about 30% are newly migrants Political concern

Healthy Population
Life-long health promotion and practice Healthy life style. Prevention: to prevent unnecessary health cost: for example, abortion, smoking and attempted or completed suicides

Thank you