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Projected dependency ratios of Hong Kong population, 2006 ­ 2036

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Projected dependency ratios of Hong Kong population, 2006 ­ 2036
Discussion on a very low fertility rate: Challenges and Opportunities 20th March, 2007 Social and Public Policy Rountable, Hong Kong

Paul Yip

Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science The University of Hong Kong



Introduction

Over the past 25 years, the population of Hong Kong has changed rapidly - Slower growth rate - Imbalance sex ratios - Ageing



Motivation and rationale



Increasing fertility:

remove of the obstacles for parenthood and childbearing in Hong Kong



Replacement migration:

slow down the ageing process and to maintain a viable economic active population in Hong Kong



Age-specific fertility rates of Hong Kong, 1971-2004

300 Live birhts per 1,000 women 250 200 150 100 50 0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2004



Change in TFR, Italy, France, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong from 1950 to 2000, prospects to 2050

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

1950-1955 1960-1965 1970-1975 1980-1985 1990-1995 2000-2005 2010-2015 2020-2025 2030-2035 2040-2045



Italy France Japan Singapore Hong Kong



Reasons for decline of TFR

Increase in the number of never married spinsterhood (50%) Reduction on marital fertility rate (25%) Late marriage (median age on first marriage: 30 males and 27 females) (25%)



Mean age of mothers by live birth order, 1981-2003

36 34 M ean age at birth 32 30 28 26 24 1981



1st parity 2nd parity 3rd parity 4th parity 1986 1991 1996 2001



Proportion of live births in Hong Kong by cohabitating parents, 1981-2003

8% 7% Proportion of live births 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1981



1986



1991



1996



2001



Economic and working conditions

Financial consideration: Long working hours: Social environment: education, politics etc



Sex ratios of Hong Kong population by age, 1996 – 2006

1150 1100 1050 1000 950 900 850 800 750 700 1996 1998 <15 2000 15 - 24 2002 25 - 39 40 -59 2004 60+ 2006



One way permit holder

Every day there are 150 mainlanders coming to Hong Kong, spouse, children and others. For spouses: 20-34.(more than 180 thousands for last decade)



Cross border marriage



Cross-border Marriages(HKM vs MF) 1986-2004

30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1986 1991 1996 2001 Marriages registered in HK Issue of CAMR Total



Sex distribution among the OWP

Pyramid for OWP Holders 2005

male 80 to 84 70 to 74



80 to 84 70 to 74



female



60 to 64 60 to 64 50 to 54 50 to 54 40 to 44 40 to 44 30 to 34 30 to 34

20 to 24 20 to 24 10 to 14 10 to 14 0-4 4000 2000 0



0-4 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000



Ageing: Dependency ratios of Hong Kong population, 1996 – 2006

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 1996 1998 2000 Child 2002 Elderly Total 2004 2006



Demographic Window(60 vs 65)



Population Distribution without migration



Projected dependency ratios of Hong Kong population, 2006 – 2036



800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 Child Elderly Total



2011



2016



2021



2026



2031



2036



0.6 0.4 0.2 0

2001 - 06 2006 - 11 2011 - 16 2016 - 21 2021 - 26 2026 - 31 2031 - 36



-0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1



7200 7000 6800 6600 6400 6200 6000 5800



2006



2011



2016



2021



2026



2031



2036



Series1 6857.1 6947.6 6954.6 6885 6736.7 6509.3 6248.1



Replacement migration:

Less than 1000 people joining Hong Kong last year with 3.5 million work force!!



Three-fold challenges

How to revert the low fertility: Replacement Migration: Healthy Population:



Low fertility About 60% reduction is due to change of marital distribution rather than the reduction of marital fertility. Promoting fertility, CE suggested to have three. However the married one on average have 2 already. Engage the newborns from Mainland born mothers in Hong Kong Family friendly work practice: including longer maternal or paternal leave for parents, child care facilities, tax reduction and shortening of working hours.



Replacement migration

About more than 80% of the population growth from migration. (open population: in and not out) The new comers rejuvenate and inject new blood into the community. They are not coming and not very stable (38100 one-way permit holders in 2004; 55,000 in 2005). Impact on the labour force: postponement of the retirement age. Successful experience in Shanghai about 30% are newly migrants Political concern



Healthy Population

Life-long health promotion and practice Healthy life style. Prevention: to prevent unnecessary health cost: for example, abortion, smoking and attempted or completed suicides



Thank you




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