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Index
AL
RI
100 times rent mortgage bargains, housing, 159–166
estimation method, 162– Baruch, Bernard M., 37
TE
163 Bear Stearns, 191–192, 217, 222,
253, 254
A bell curve, 10
MA
adjustable rate mortgage(ARM), benchmark lending rate, 120
119, 124, 134–140, 219–220, Bernanke, Ben, 68, 76–77, 83,
250 120, 193, 199–202, 207,
D
AIG, 217, 223, 254 211–212, 219–221
Alchemy of Finance, The, 14 Biggs, Barton, 16, 54, 197
TE
Alt-A loans, 126–127, 151–152, Bismarck, Otto von, 181–182
250 black swan events, 6, 8
GH
Ambac, 224–225 Blanchflower, Daniel, 145
ARM. See adjustable rate mortgage Buffett, Warren, 19, 23, 69–70,
(ARM) 139–140, 170, 196, 218,
RI
Art of War, The, 98–100 228–229, 231–232
buy and hold technique, 6
B
PY
bailouts, 200–202, 230–232, C
248 C.G.W., 247
CO
Bair, Sheila, 227–228 California Association of
bank bailouts, 200–202, Realtors, 129
230–232 Capital One, 241–242
bank collapses, 190–194 Cardono, Geolamo, 31
Bank of America Corp., 192, Carnegie, Andrew, 159
230–232 Case-Shiller Home Price
Bank of Canada, 186 Index, 119, 149, 152–153,
Bank of North America, 177–178 251
banking holiday, 233 CDO. See collateralized debt
BankUnited, 220 obligations (CDO)
259
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260 Index
central banks, 177–184 Dennis, Richard, 4, 248
uncontrolled, 175 dollar, 46–47
China, 74–75, 198 downtrend, 51–52
Citigroup, 223, 230–232 influence, 212–213
coins, 63 dollar cost averaging (DCA),
collateralized debt obligations 45
(CDO), 72 DPR. See delayed participant
college students, 237–238 response (DPR)
Columbian Bank and Trust
(Kansas), 228 E
confederate dollar, 41 economic crisis, global, 227
consumer price index (CPI), economic early warning, 39–41
68–69, 70 Economic Stabilization Act,
continental dollar, 41 142–143, 230–232, 254
Couch, Kent, 92–94 Emergency Banking Act of 1933,
Countrywide Financial, 192 233
Cox, Christopher, 193 emergency lending rate, 219
CPI. See comsumer price index (CPI) energy crisis, 87–92
Creature from Jekyll Island, The, energy investment, 90, 249
183–184 energy stocks, 87–92
credit card debt, average ethanol, 88–89
household, 240 Euro, 50–51
credit cards, 235–244, 255–256 Extraordinary Popular Delusions
delinquent, 242 and the Madness of Crowds,
credit crisis, 199–202 38, 131
credit default swaps, 226
credit expansion, 72 F
credit, building, 237–238 Fannie Mae, 189–198, 219–220,
crude oil, 85 252
Currency Act of 1764, 176 farming, 79
FDIC. See Federal Deposit Insurance
D Corporation (FDIC)
DCA. See dollar cost averaging Federal Deposit Insurance
(DCA) Corporation (FDIC), 172,
debt, building, 237–238 198–199, 203–204, 219–220
deflation, 71–74, 212 federal funds forecasts, 208–211
deflation, inflation versus, Federal Open Market
214–215 Committee (FOMC),
delayed participant response 13, 68, 171, 205–206,
(DPR), 12 253–254
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Federal Reserve, 169–170, standard, 47–49
174–175, 182–184, 205–214, Goldman Sachs, 224
227, 252 Goldseek.com radio listener
forecasts, 208–211 questions, 15–17, 33–35,
Fiat Money Inflation in France, 42 60–64, 81, 94–96, 110–111,
Fibonacci retracement, 56 121–122, 132, 147, 157–158,
Fibonacci sequence, 54–55 166, 185–187, 203–204, 233,
Fibonacci, Leonardo, 54–58 244–245
First Bank of the United States, Gore, Al, 84
177–179 government-sponsored
flippers, real esate, 127–128 enterprise (GSE), 189,
FOMC. See Federal Open Market 194–198
Committee (FOMC) Great Depression, 172–173
food shortages, 78–79 greenback, 41–42, 51–52, 70–71
Fooled by Randomness, 8 greenback law, 180–182
forecasts, federal funds, 208–211 Greenspan, Alan, 77, 134, 155,
foreclosure, 130–131 170–171, 173, 196, 206
Fountainhead, The, 190 Gresham, Sir Thomas, 50
fractional reserve banking, 178 Gresham’s Law, 50
Franklin, Benjamin, 176 Griffin, G. Edward, 183–184
Freddie Mac, 189–198, 219–220, GSE. See government-sponsored
252 enterprise (GSE)
French Revolution, 65–67 GSR Goldilocks Trading System
fundamental analysis, 53–54 (GGTS), 27–29, 30
futures contracts, 60 GSR Spotlight Picks, 29
G H
GAO. See General Accounting Hamilton, Alexander, 178
Office (GAO) Hawthorne, Nathaniel, 133
General Accounting Office home affordability estimate
(GAO), 171 methods
Getty, Jean Paul, 217 100 times rent, 162–163
GGTS. See GSR Goldilocks Trading thirty percent solution,
System (GGTS) 161–162
global economic crisis, 227 three times, 160
global housing crisis, 144–146 home prices, 117–118, 249
Go (board game), 19 Hoover, Herbert, 173
gold, 43–46, 57, 69, 248 Hope, Bob, 189
bubble, 40 house money, 29–30
market, 10 housing crash, 153
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262 Index
housing Keynes, John Maynard, 175
bargains, 159–166 Kiyosaki, Robert, 63
boom, 128–129
bubble, 8, 117, 123–131, 249 L
global crisis, 144–146 Lacker, Jeffrey, 196
lenders, 118–120 LEAPS. See Long-Term Equity
market, 118–120 Anticipations Securities
(LEAPS)
I Lehman Brothers, 217, 222, 254
Inconvenient Truth, An, 84 lending rate, 120, 219
IndyMac Bancorp, 220–221, 228 leverage, 225–226
inflation, 41–42, 71–72, 77–78, Lewis, Kenneth, 192
248 liar’s loans. See Alt-A loans
inflation barometer, gold, 69 Liber Abaci, 54
inflation Liber de Ludo Aleae, 31
deflation versus, 214–215 Lincoln, Abraham, 115, 180–182
shortages, 78–79 liquidity crisis, 226–227
interest rate cuts, 218 Livermore, Jesse, 4, 102, 248
investing decisions, 104–105 Long-Term Equity Anticipations
investing lessons, Sun Tzu, Securities (LEAPS), 31–32
100–109
investing techniques M
buy and hold technique, 6 Mackay, Charles, 38–39, 131
fundamental analysis, 53–54 Madison, James, 179
market trend, 3–4, 23–27, Madoff, Bernie, 173
106–107, 248 Mandelbrot, Benoit, 8
Sun Tzu, 100–109 market history, 37–42
technical analysis, 53 market trend, 3–4, 11
determining, 23–27
J Maxed Out, 237
Jackson, Andrew, 169, 180, 252 MBI, 224–225
Japanese housing boom, MBS. See mortgage backed security
128–129 (MBS)
Jefferson, Thomas, 139–140, 178 median U.S. house price, 249
JP Morgan Chase and Co., Merrill Lynch, 192, 217, 223,
230–232 253–254
Microsoft, 58
K Mint Act, 48
Kansas Bankers Survey Corp., Mises, Ludwig von, 65, 77
229 monetary expansion, 248
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money management, 20–21, 248 own, rent versus, 163–165
money supply, controlling,
173–174 P
money zero maturity (MZM), 72, paper trading, 107–108
211 Pareto-Waltzek Hypothesis,
Morgan Stanley, 224, 230–232 10–13
Morgan, J.P., 183–184 Pareto, Vilifredo, 10
Morris, Robert, 177 Paul, Ron, 119
mortgage backed security Paulson, Henry (Hank), 120,
(MBS), 14, 72, 75–76, 192–193, 195, 199–202,
150–151, 217 211–212, 230–232
mortgage crisis, 149–157 Petrodollar, 49
mortgage estimators Poole, William, 196
100 times method, 162–163 position building, 101
thirty percent solution, potatoes, 79–80
161–162 precious metals, 42–52, 248
three times method, 160
mortgages, 134–135 R
adjustable rate, 119, 124, Ramsey, Dave, 155–156, 243–244
135–139 Rand, Ayn, 190
Alt-A, 126–127 random number generator,
options, 126–127 11–12
subprime, 126–127 rationing, 78–79
upside down, 152 real estate, 115–122
MZM. See money zero maturity crash, 115–117, 124–127
(MZM) flippers, 127–128
markets, 132
N recipe, potato, 80
NASDAQ bubble crash, 116 rent, own versus, 163–165
National Banking Act, 182 rental properties, 141–144
national debt, 185–187, 198 REO, 131
Newton, Sir Isaac, 3–4, 6, 248 Resolution Trust Corp., 229
retracement method, 101
O Robespierre, Maximilien, 66
oil, 49, 83–94, 249 Rogers, Jim, 102, 175, 194–195,
crisis, 83–87 218, 230–232
pipeline, 85–86 Rogers, Will, 149
option-only mortgages, 126–128, Rogoff, Ken, 229
136–138 Roosevelt, Franklin D., 189, 194,
overnight lending rate, 253–254 252
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Roskilde Bank, 227 thirty percent solution, 161–162
Rothschild, Mayer, 173 hybrid, 162
Roubini, Nouriel, 76–77 three times method, 160
Rukeyser, Louis, 194 TIPS. See treasure inflation
protected securities (TIPS)
S Tomnitz, Donald J., 153–154
savings and loan crisis, 171–173 Total Money Makeover, The,
Scurlock, James, 237 155–156
Second Bank of the United Towle, Chuck, 228–229
States, 177, 180–182 trading, paper, 107–108
Shiller, Robert, 31, 119, 152–154 treasure inflation protected
shortages, 78–79 securities (TIPS), 69
silver, 46, 56–57 trend portfolio insurance, 31–32
SIV. See structured investment trend-based systems, 106–107,
vehicles (SIV) 248
Soros, George, 13–15, 87, 195, Trichet, Jean-Claude, 146
218, 231–232 Twain, Mark, 3, 123
South Sea Company, 6, 38, 248
Spain, 144–146 U
Stamp, Sir Josiah, 169 United Kingdom, 144–146
stock market bubble, 9 upside down mortgages, 152
structured investment vehicles
(SIV), 72 V
subprime Volcker, Paul, 192–193
debt, 135
loans, 197–198 W
mortgage, 126–127 Wachovia, 223
Sun Tzu, 97–109, 249 Wall Street, 221–224
Surowiecki, James, 54 Walter, Larry, 93
system entries Waltzek Energy Investment
enhanced, 29–30 Solution (WEIS), 90
house money, 29–30 war, 41–42
enhanced, 30 War of 1812, 178–179
Warburg, Paul, 184
T Washington, George, 178
Taleb, Nassim, 8 wealth transfer, 140
Tax Reform Act of 1996, 171 Wealth, War and Wisdom, 16,
technical analysis, 53 54
tent cities, 144 WEIS. See Waltzek Energy
The Black Swan, 8 Investment Solution
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Wells Fargo and Co., 223–224, Wisdom of Crowds, The, 54
230–232 Woodford, Jack, 205
White, Andrew Dickson,
42 Z
Wilson, Earl, 235 Zandi, Mark, 124
Wilson, Woodrow, 184 Zimbabwe, 68
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