Load Forecasting
CL&P Distribution
Load Forecasting
What drives us to add capacity
Distribution planning 101
When do we add capacity
Overbuild system Vs. Underbuild system
LEAP
Risks
Load Forecasting
What drives us to add capacity
Specific new load
Normal load growth
Contingency load growth
Load Forecasting
What drives us to add capacity
Specific new load
Normal load growth
Contingency load growth
Load Forecasting
Specific New Load
Customer driven
Timing driven by customer
Work driven by size and
location of customer
Mandatory work outcome
Load Forecasting
What drives us to add capacity
Specific new load
Normal load growth
Contingency load growth
Load Forecasting
Normal Load Growth
Background load growth
10 Year projections
Locational growth rate
Corporate Growth Model?
Mandatory work outcome
Load Forecasting
What drives us to add capacity
Specific new load
Normal load growth
Contingency load growth
Load Forecasting
Contingency Load Growth
Emergency operation of system
Emergency ratings
5 days a year peak
Discretionary work outcome
5R1 = 600 Amps
5R5 = 400 Amps
TR
29W 100 A
100 A
TR S/S TR SR
100 A
MR MR
VS
TR
100 A 100 A
SR
5R5
MR SR RR SR
29J1-2 SR
RR 5R1-2
100 A
SR B
RR
100 A
29J2-2 B
BURR VILLE 5R5-2
29J S/S
RR CANTON
5R S/S
TR 100 A
MR
SR SR
TR SR 5R1
100 A 100 A
500 - Customer Zones
5R1 = 600 Amps
5R5 = 400 Amps
TR
29W 100 A
100 A
TR S/S TR SR
100 A
MR MR
VS
TR
100 A 100 A
SR
5R5
MR SR RR SR
29J1-2 SR
RR 5R1-2
100 A
SR B
RR
100 A
29J2-2 B
BURR VILLE 5R5-2
29J S/S
RR CANTON
5R S/S
TR 100 A
MR
SR SR
TR SR 5R1
100 A 100 A
500 - Customer Zones
5R1 = 600 Amps
5R5 = 0 Amps
TR
29W 100 A
0A
TR S/S TR SR
0A
MR MR
VS
TR
0A 100 A
SR
5R5
MR SR RR SR
29J1-2 SR
RR 5R1-2
100 A
SR B
RR
0A
29J2-2 B
BURR VILLE 5R5-2
29J S/S
RR CANTON
5R S/S
TR 100 A
MR
SR SR
TR SR 5R1
100 A 100 A
500 - Customer Zones
5R1 = 600 Amps
5R5 = 0 Amps
TR
29W 100 A
0A
TR S/S TR SR
0A
MR MR
VS
TR
0A 100 A
SR
5R5
MR SR RR SR
29J1-2 SR
RR 5R1-2
100 A
SR B
RR
0A
29J2-2 B
BURR VILLE 5R5-2
29J S/S
RR CANTON
5R S/S
TR 100 A
MR
SR SR
TR SR 5R1
100 A 100 A
500 - Customer Zones
5R1 = 800 Amps
5R5 = 0 Amps
TR
29W 100 A
100 A
TR S/S TR SR
100 A
MR MR
VS
TR
100 A 100 A
SR
5R5
MR SR RR SR
29J1-2 SR
RR 5R1-2
100 A
SR B
RR
0A
29J2-2 B
BURR VILLE 5R5-2
29J S/S
RR CANTON
5R S/S
TR 100 A
MR
SR SR
TR SR 5R1
100 A 100 A
500 - Customer Zones
Load Forecasting
When do we add capacity
Line work – Six months before
projected limits exceeded
Substation work – Up to 6 years
before projected limits exceeded
Overbuild Vs Underbuild
Load Forecasting
Load Estimating Analysis Program
(LEAP)
Three years actuals
10 Year projections based on growth rate
Loads over 250 KW manually added
Normal overloads highlighted
Contingency overloads highlighted
Limiting factors, normal & emergency
ratings
Load Forecasting
Risks
Weather normalization
Obsolete metering
Major customer load change
Load Forecasting
Questions?