Deterrence and the Death Penalty
Llad Phillips
Outline
The Death Penalty
Arguments
Philosophical and moral (lexicographic ordering)
Practical: Is it a deterrent?
• Impact on the criminal justice system: Detention (prison
building era) dominates
Operation of the Death Penalty
Homicide and Executions
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VI. Lecture Six: “Deterrence and the Death Penalty”,
Professor Phillips
Ch. 10 (P&V) "Isolating Deterrence Using the
Simultaneous Equation System"
References: Gary Becker, "Crime and Punishment:
An Economic Approach" Journal of Political Economy,
March/April 1968 (RBR)
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http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-
7532034279766935521
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What purpose did the execution serve?
Deterrence? Other Saddams? (The Hague)
Detention? No
Rehabilitation? No
Retribution?
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1976
Supreme
Court
Reinstates
Death
Penalty
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Economic Conditions and Crime
California Crime Index Levels Off in the
New Millenium
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CA Crime Index Per 1000 & CA Misery Index in % , 1952-2007
45.00
40.00
CA Misery Index
CA Crime Index Per 1000
35.00
30.00
25.00
Rate
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
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California Homicide rate per 100,000: 1952-2007
16
1980
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
HOMICIDE
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Damages: US Violence, 1993
Offense Reported
Loss Rate Damages,
Offenses Billions, $
Homicide $1,191,000 24,526 $46.8
Rape $87,000 104,806 $9.1
Assault $15,000 1,135,099 $17.0
Total $72.9
Source: National Institute of Justice, Victim Costs and Consequences (1996)
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Increase in CA Homicides
2002 to 2003: at least 10 more homicides
@$1,191,000, increased damages of $11.9
million, minimum
2003: 2402 homicides, 6.7/100,000
@$1,191,000, total damages of $ 2.86 billion
2004: 2392 homicides, 6.5/100,000
2005: 2503 homicides, 6.8/100,000
http://caag.state.ca.us/
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Schematic of the Criminal Justice System
Causes ?
Weak Link
Offense Crime Generation
Rate Per Expected
Capita Cost of
Punishment
(detention,
deterrence)
Expenditures
Crime Control
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Ca Crime Index Per 1000 and Misery Index (percent)1952-2005
45.00
CA Misery Index
40.00 CA Crime Index Per 1000
35.00
30.00
25.00
Rate
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
California Prisoners Per Capita, 1952-2005
0.005
0.0045
0.004
0.0035
0.003
Rate
0.0025
0.002
0.0015
0.001
0.0005
0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
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Questions About Crime
Does the Expected Severity of Punishment
Deter Crime?
expected severity = probability of punishment *
severity of punishment
e.g. in LA County: 0.005*death penalty
Why Do We Keep Building Prisons at Great
Expense to Warehouse Convicts?
Doesn’tdeterrence work?
Do we have to rely on detention?
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Controversy About the Death
Penalty
Death penalty is the most severe sentence.
Does it deter crime?
Opponents of the death penalty say no.
• Their evidence? Critiques of studies that indicate the death
penalty is a deterrent.
Why are so few murderers who receive the
death sentence executed in California?
Deathsentence appeases the proponents.
Few executions appeases the opponents.
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France was the
last Western
European Country
to abandon the
death Penalty in
1977
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Public Opinion: Do You Believe in Capital Punishment?
80
70
60
Percent in Favor
50
40
30
Roper Poll
20 Harris Poll
10
0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
http://www.albany.edu/sourcebook
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Gallup Poll Which is the Better Penalty For Murder?, 1985-2006
70
death penalty
life without parole
60
50
40
Percent
30
20
10
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
http://www.albany.edu/sourcebook/
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Executions in the US 1930-2007
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs
Peak to Peak: About 65 years
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Bureau of Justice Statistics
Peak to Peak: 50 years
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Nikolai Kondratieff (1892-1938)
Brought to attention in
Joseph Schumpeter’s Business
Cycles (1939)
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2008-2014:
Hard Winter
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Policy Impact of Opponents to
the Death Penalty
As an instrument for crime control,
deterrence has been a casualty of the
argument about the death penalty.
The argument: if the death penalty does not
deter murderers, then deterrence must not work
as a control.
As a consequence, society relies more and
more on detention for crime control.
Society builds more and more prisons.
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Homicide in Los Angeles County
1990-1994: 9442
homicides
Increasing number of
gang murders
> 40 % of the total
Only 1 in 3 murders
leads to punishment
gang killings are harder
to solve
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Clearance Ratio, CA 1997-2004
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Clearance Ratio, US 1976-2005
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US Homicides by Circumstance: 76-05
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Branching Diagram
unsolved
46%
other
9442 homicides
in LA County 13%
54% dismissed
solved
or not guilty
87% 32%
arrest and
prosecution
(47%)
68%
guilty (32%)
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Branching Diagram, Continued
dismissed
or not guilty
Manslaughter
50% 15 years to life
(7.0%)
Guilty (32%) 25 years to life
50% (5.0%)
1st & 2nd degree
murder (16%)
life without parole
(3.5%)
3.1%
death sentence
( 0.5%)
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Stable
Down
Up
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Who has benefited the most
from the decline in the homicide
rate in the nineties?
Who is the victim, family, friend
or stranger?
http://caag.state.ca.us/ Homicide in California, 1998
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U.S.
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Death Sentences Commuted:US
400
350
300 Commuted
250
Number
200
150
100
50
0
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
Year
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Executions in the United States
Sentenced Commuted Executed
400
350
300
250
Number
200
150
100
50
0
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
Year
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Administration of Capital Sentences in the US
Stock
Inflow Outflow
Sentenced to Death Prisoners on Sentences
Death Row Commuted,
Executions
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Prisoners on Death Row: US
3000
2500
Prisoners on Death Row
2000
Number
1500
1000
500
0
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
Year
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The Death Penalty in California
Fourteen persons were executed between
1978 and 2009
In January 2009, there were 677 convicts on
death row
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California Executions: 1893-2004
18
16
14
12
Number
10
8
6
4
2
0
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
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Execution Witness Area
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Execution Chamber
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Gas
Chamber
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Split Personality Behaviors
Jack Hirshleifer: “The Expanding Domain
of Economics”
Work and Economic Man
no violence motive: self-interest
Choice
Work and Economic Man
brawl in bars motive: self-interest
with episodes of
antagonism
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Motivation for Violence: Antagonism
Assaulters
Assaulter’s Iso-preference
Income Lines
High
Total or Social Income
Low
Victim’s Income
Work and expect $24,000/yr
no violence
choice Apprehended: lose
0.1 1 month in court and
Work and jail, $22,000
brawl in bars
0.9 Not apprehended
$24,000
Expected income: 0.1*$22,000 + 0.9*$24,000 = $23,800
Questions About Statistical
Studies of Deterrence
Do we know enough about the factors that
cause crime?
Can we find variables that will control for
variation in crime generation?
We have better measures for the factors that
control crime than for the factors that cause
crime.
Unknown variation in crime generation may
mask the effects of crime control.
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Schematic of the Criminal Justice System
Causes ?
Weak Link
Offense Crime Generation
Rate Per Expected
Capita Cost of
Punishment
(detention,
deterrence)
Expenditures
Crime Control
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Crime Generation
1. variation of offense rate per capita with expected cost
of punishment
2. Shift in the relationship with a change in causal factors
Offense
crime generation function
rate per
capita
OF = f($CR*SV, SE, MC)
Expected cost(severity) of punishment
Crime Generation
1. variation of offense rate per capita with expected cost
of punishment
2. Shift in the relationship with a change in causal factors
Offense
crime generation function
rate per
capita
OF = f($CR*SV, SE, MC)
High causal conditions
Low causal conditions
Expected cost(severity) of punishment
Production Function for the Criminal Justice System (CJS)
1. Variation in expected costs of punishment with
criminal justice system expenditure per capita
Expected
costs of
punishment
production function
$CR*SV =g($EX)
Criminal Justice System expenditures per capita
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
Crime Generation
expected cost of punishment
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
per capita
expenditures
on CJS offense rate per capita
Production
Function Crime Generation
expected cost of punishment
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
square
per capita
450
expenditures
on CJS offense rate per capita
Production
Function Crime Generation
expected cost of punishment
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
square 1
per capita
1 450
expenditures
on CJS offense rate per capita
Production
Function Crime Generation
expected cost of punishment
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
square 1
per capita
1 450
expenditures
on CJS offense rate per capita
Production
Function Crime Generation
expected cost of punishment
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
square 1
per capita
1 450
expenditures
on CJS offense rate per capita
Production
Function Crime Generation
expected cost of punishment
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
1
square
per capita
1 450
expenditures
on CJS offense rate per capita
Production
Function Crime Generation
expected cost of punishment
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
1
square
2
per capita
1 2 450
expenditures
on CJS offense rate per capita
Production
Function Crime Generation
expected cost of punishment
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
1
square
2
per capita 3
1 2 450
expenditures
on CJS offense rate per capita
Production
Function Crime Generation
expected cost of punishment
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
1
2
3
offense rate per capita
Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice
Get
Expect
Source:
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Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
1
square
2
per capita 3
1 2 450
expenditures
on CJS offense rate per capita
Production
Function Crime Generation
expected cost of punishment
Causal conditions account for more variation than control
Source:
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Schematic of the Criminal Justice System
Causes ?
Weak Link
Offense Crime Generation
Rate Per Expected
Capita Cost of
Punishment
(detention,
deterrence)
Expenditures
Crime Control
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Summary
The death penalty stirs strong emotions.
To attack the death penalty, opponents have
attacked the concept of deterrence.
Proponents of deterrence have lost the
argument to proponents of detention.
Weakness: not understanding causes of crime.
Detention is the principal instrument of
crime control policy today in the U.S. and it
costs big bucks
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Prisoners Sentenced to Death:US
350
300
250
200
Number
Sentenced
150
100
50
0
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
Year
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Executions in the US
40
35
Executed
30
25
Number
20
15
10
5
0
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
Year
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California Homicide Rate Per 100,000 People
16
14
12
10
Rate
8
6
4
2
0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
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California Department of Corrections:
http//www.cdc.state.ca.us/
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California Executions Since 1978
Name Date Received Date Executed Time on Death Row
Robert Alton Harris 3/14/79 4/21/92 13 years, 1 month
David Edwin Mason 1/27/84 8/24/93 9 years, 7 months
William George Bonin 3/22/82 2/23/96 13 years, 1 month
Keith Daniel Williams 4/13/79 5/3/96 17 years
Thomas M. Thompson 8/23/84 7/14/98 14 years, 1 month
Kelvin Malone 6/22/81 1/13/99 (Missouri) 15 years, 6 months
Jaturun Siripongs 5/2/83 2/9/99 15 years, 9 months
Manuel Babbitt 7/15/82 5/4/99 16 years, 10 months
Darrell Keith Rich 1/23/81 3/15/00 19 years, 1 month
Robert Lee Massie 5/28/79 3/27/01 21 years, 10 months
Stephen Wayne Anderson 7/30/81 1/29/02 20 years, 6 months