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					Finance                  Finance2
oil                139   %                    43
hurricanes         121   respondents          24
gas                100   risk                 22
returns             90   supply-chain         22
market              85   companies            20
%                   85   supply               18
day                 81   risks                17
hurricane           78   years                16
landfall            64   chain                12
opv                 60   suppliers            12
table               59   failures             12
supply              53   facilities           10
gulf                52   exposure             10
corridor            49   physical             10
chain               48   disasters            10
firms               45   disruption            9
coast               42   physical risks        9
days                42   cfo                   8
gas corridor        42   supply chain          8
abnormal returns    42   number                8
stock               39   survey                7
landfalls           36   companies’            7
firm                32   research              6
major hurricanes    32   e.                    6
supply chain        30   management            6
sample              27   figure                6
.                   27   performance           6
results             26   asset                 6
dc                  23   services              6
threat              23   disaster              5
panel               22   substantial number    5
prices              22   .                     5
monday              21   business              5
price               19   physical failures     5
model               19   company’s             5
reaction            19   natural disasters     5
storm               18   impact                5
stock market        18   logistics             5
return              17   publishing            5
sunday              17   practices             4
category            17   market                4
disruptions         17   one respondent        4
journal             16   corp.                 4
volatility          16   recent years          4
portfolio           16   company               4
impact              16   global                4
coefficient               15 ve years                    4
saturday                  15 increases                   4
average                   14 decrease                    4
facilities                14 supply chains               4
dday                      14 activities                  4
variable                  14 ve                          4
twenty-one                13 .nance                      4
gas supply chain          13 cost                        4
gas firms                 13 journey                     4
r.                        13 partners                    4
coefficients              12 production                  4
tuesday                   12 executives                  4
region                    12 chains                      4
time                      12 underperformance            4
major                     12 respondent                  4
labor                     11 report                      4
industry                  11 .nance executives           3
forecasts                 11 research services           3
period                    11 res                         3
abnormal return           11 share                       3
u.s.                      11 equipment                   3
wall                      10 products                    3
market.s                  10 percentage                  3
announcements             10 surprise                    3
                          10 resiliency
market adjusted abnormal returns                         3
oil prices                10 inputs                      3
adjusted abnormal returns 10 consolidation               3
gulf coast                10 areas                       3
windows                   10 cfo research services       3
dwsj                      10 publishing corp.            3
street                    10 power                       3
tables                     9 explosions                  3
corpus                     9e                            3
b                                                        3
                           9 substantial number of respondents
alicia                     9 physical hazards            3
research                   9 risk exposure               3
accumulation windows       9 man-made disasters          3
hours                      9 problems                    3
tests                      9 interruption                3
reports                    9 view                        3
track                      9 failure                     3
news                       9 inventory                   3
management                 9 costs                       3
energy                     9 finance                     3
christi                    9 asset failures              3
earnings                   9 th                          3
accumulation               9 see                         3
sept.                        9 senior .nance executives      3
corpus christi               9 market share                  3
events                       9 hazards                       3
p                            8 order                         3
percentage                   8 three years                   3
panel b                      8 supply-chain partners         3
august                       8 see figure                    3
shocks                       8 supply-chain disruption       3
location                     8 earthquakes                   3
coast region                 8 from                          3
hendricks                    8 physical asset failures       3
significance                 8 storm                         2
opal                         8 light                         2
market.s reaction            8 sourcing changes              2
story                        8 asia                          2
disruption                   8 part                          2
number                       8 supply-chain concerns         2
singhal                      8 atleast                       2
sample firms                 8 storms                        2
aug.                         8 percent                       2
apalachicola                 8 several years                 2
mean                         8 china                         2
gulf coast region            8                  42%          2
fact                         7 responses                     2
labor day landfalls          7 fifty-eight percent           2
price volatility             7 ective                        2
risk                         7 greater risk exposure         2
day landfalls                7 survey respondents            2
error                        7 changes                       2
order                        7 accidents                     2
friday                       7 make                          2
katrina                      7 insurers                      2
nhc                                                          2
                             7 fifty-eight percent of respondents
effect                       7 equipment failures            2
galveston                    7 process                       2
noise                        7 financial performance         2
land                         6 ship sinkings                 2
                             6 underperformance of supply-chain partners
returns individual days accumulation windows                 2
oil price volatility         6 cfo publishing corp.          2
regression                   6 survey results                2
                             windows
individual days accumulation 6 february                      2
index                        6 nance                         2
value                        6 advantage                     2
                             6
market model abnormal return exposures                       2
factor                       6 results                       2
tuesday through saturday 6 key                               2
days accumulation windows 6 frequency/high                   2
p.                          6 ship                         2
level                       6 supplier’s                   2
model abnormal return       6 last-minute sourcing changes 2
factors                     6 outsourcing                  2
effects                     6 natural                      2
date                        6 remediation                  2
estimations                 6 catastrophes                 2
f-statistic                 6 hidden cost                  2
analysts                    6 supply-chain resiliency      2
profits                     6 respondentssay               2
combined coefficient        6 insurance                    2
damage                      6 delays                       2
monday landfalls            6a                             2
j.                          6 risk management              2
stock prices                6 many companies               2
economics                   6 some-what                    2
crsp                        6 sinkings                     2
storms                      5 natural disaster             2
intensity                   5 supply-chain risk            2
street journal              5 fm                           2
deviation                   5 reputation                   2
standard deviation          5 asset failure                2
3 monday                    5 increase                     2
et                          5 several respondents          2
firm announcements          5 bene.ts                      2
hurricane events            5 least some-what              2
operations                  5 key suppliers                2
forecast                    5 increases exposure           2
months                      5 past several years           2
supply chain disruptions    5 group                        2
variability                 5 assessing risk               2
price shocks                5 shutdown                     2
florida                     5 damage                       2
regnier                     5 other problems               2
producers                   5 supplier                     2
section                     5 sourcing activities          2
chain disruptions           5 respondents’                 2
wall street journal         5 supply-chain interruption    2
energy economics            5 following                    2
oil price shocks            5 costly delays                2
hurricane.s                 5 katrina                      2
standard                    5 concerns                     2
hurricanes alicia           5                   55%        2
information                 5 critical suppliers           2
                            4 tsunamis
excludes hurricanes with sunday                            2
activity                    4 strategies                   2
presence                    4 service                      2
celia                     4 examples                       2
coast oil                 4 relocation                     2
importance                4 facility                       2
gulf coast oil            4 global sourcing activities     2
west                      4 pro.                           2
chain facilities          4 physical asset failure         2
hurricane.s landfall      4 ected                          2
stock market.s reaction   4 company-owned facilities       2
interest                  4 competitiveness                1
price index               4 fewer critical suppliers       1
hour                      4 issue                          1
supply chain facilities                                    1
                          4 supply-chain/procurement departments iscritical in order
firm.s                                                     1
                          4 experienced unexpected physical disruption
model abnormal returns    4                   45%          1
rates                     4 supply-chain risks             1
process                   4 robust framework               1
ibes                      4 increases risk exposure        1
periods                   4 materials                      1
creation                  4 recent attacks in mumbai       1
rita                                                       1
                          4 critical suppliers’ production facilities
refining                  4 activities increase            1
companies                 4 facility shutdown              1
initial sample            4 companies’greatest             1
ar                        4 businesses                     1
hurricane threat          4 oodingin                       1
markets                   4 supply chain.”                 1
k.                        4                   39%          1
thursday                                                   1
                          4 dealing withnumerous key suppliers
regression results                                         1
                          4 risk inadvance of decision making
twenty-one hurricanes     4 contributions                  1
landfall location         4 “somewhat common”              1
cyclone                   4 notmean a company’s risks 1
producers price index     4 resilience                     1
shows                     4 andsupplier                    1
losses                    4 nance executives               1
study                     4 future                         1
time period               4 affected financial performance 1
event                                                      1
                          4 companies’greatest supply-chain concernsover
excludes                  4 “somewhat                      1
                          4 consolidationof
market model abnormal returns                              1
value creation process    4 resulting inloss of reputation 1
.s                        4 own business in recent years 1
c                         4 www.fmglobal.com               1
rit                       4 risk of supply-chain disruption1
excludes hurricanes       4 holding greater inventory      1
rise                      4 type                           1
% level                   4 decision making                1
creation process               4 th e challenge                 1
west coast                     4 such inter-ruptions            1
u.s. gulf coast                4 th e bene.ts                   1
dummy                          4 means                          1
insights                       4 magazine                       1
nyse                           4 paidto this issue              1
market reaction                4 note                           1
variables                      4 component                      1
production                     4 catastrophes—also              1
use                            4 common sources                 1
onshore                        4 unexpected physical disruption 1
major hurricane                4 ina retrieval system           1
combined coefficient on opv 4 “it                               1
negative returns               4 physical disruption            1
twenty-one major hurricanes 4 substan-tial                      1
range                                                           1
                               4 physical failures at company-owned facilities
wilcoxon                                                        1
                               4 leanmanufacturing practices—business practices thattend
l.                                                              1
                               4 risks.without a proper understanding
dummy variable                 4 explosion                      1
camille                        3 dence                          1
drilling                       3 importance                     1
conclusions                    3 negotiating leverage           1
florida peninsula                                               1
                               3 facilitiesnegatively a. ected performance.
wind                           3 “logistics facility shutdown 1
evacuation                     3 con.rm                         1
noisy                          3 source                         1
“pure”                         3 hurricanes                     1
b.                             3 diversi.cation                 1
                               3 level
landfall category landfall hurricane of supplier diversi.cation 1
rmt                            3 processes                      1
assistant                      3 companies’ plans               1
r. singhal                     3 making                         1
risk factor                                                     1
                               3 suppliers’ production facilities
analysis                       3[                               1
notes                          3 companies by surprise          1
peninsula                                                       1
                               3 sourcing increases risk exposure
landfall day                                                    1
                               3 physical failures atcompany-owned facilities—have
portfolios                     3 respondents’ companies         1
error rates                    3 —anywhere                      1
areas                          3 other natural disasters        1
company                        3 lean manufacturing practices 1
platforms                      3 fm global physical risks       1
timing                         3 performance.                   1
spot prices                                                     1
                               3 overseas sourcing increases risk exposure
v. r. singhal                  3 consolidationof suppliers      1
spot                           3 . oodingin china               1
et al.                         3 strife                         1
s.                      3   journey—one                   1
ability                 3   research group                1
new orleans             3   logistics service providers   1
dearborn                3   pro. ts                       1
storm intensity         3   operation.”                   1
e.                      3                                 1
                            severebusiness interruption at any moment
operating               3   sourcing strategy increases 1
levels                  3   smaller-scale disasters       1
apalachicola corridor   3   senior                        1
carla                   3   respective global markets 1
predictions             3   reportthat                    1
chain disruption        3                                 1
                            a. ected performance survey results
michigan                3   viewtheir                     1
gall                    3   attendant                     1
impending hurricane     3   tous.”                        1
jones                   3   cost reduc-tion               1
university              3   concernsover                  1
pipelines               3   chain a hidden cost           1
3 sunday                3   practices—business            1
assistant professor     3   separatecategories            1
d.                      3   . exibility                   1
gas facilities          3   natural disas-ters            1
response                3   bret ahnell                   1
parsons                 3   supply-chain decisions        1
possibilities           3   analysis                      1
previous research       3   rifewith examples             1
v.                      3   boiler explosion              1
dependent variable      3   capabili-ties                 1
analyst                 3   practices thattend            1
classification          3                                 1
                            creating complexity consolida-tion increases exposure
landfall hurricane      3   major supplier’s main factory1
supply chains           3   . rehazards                   1
sixteen                 3   rifewith                      1
storm track             3   written permission            1
figure                  3   world.hurricanes katrina      1
being                   3   remediation e. orts— repairs 1
oct.                    3   jane coulter                  1
panel c                 3   wild.                         1
national                3   knowledge                     1
days as gulf            3   possible prob-lems            1
“pure” day              3   simpli. edby mapping          1
drilling platforms      3                                 1
                            global sourcing strategy increases
supply chain presence   3   pressure pointscan            1
“integrated oil         3   a hidden cost                 1
proxy                   3   major plant                   1
bret                    3   more information              1
i.s                     3   hurricane                     1
major hurricane threat        3 summer                         1
performance                   3 champion                       1
ratti                         3 such suppliers                 1
forecasting                   3 from finance                   1
date of landfall day          3 facilities—have                1
allen                         3 operating costs                1
mexico                                                         1
                              3 outsourcing key business processes
kaul                          3 intense business competition1
chemical                      3 sponsor’s                      1
window                                                         1
                              3 few suppliers orhaving alternate suppliers
nhc forecasts                 3 realities                      1
example                       3 production facilities          1
earnings news                 3 position                       1
see                           3 name tsunamis                  1
lead                          3 ahidden                        1
stocks                        3 number of transactions         1
estimated coefficients        3 impact little                  1
“petroleum                    3 global markets                 1
franklin                      3 “pressure                      1
                              3 ective supply-chain resiliency 1
hurricane landfall category landfall hurricane
avg                           3 remediation efforts—repairs 1
stories                       3 unpleasant sort                1
new                           3 factory                        1
professor                     3 resort.”                       1
category landfall hurricane 3 shortfalls—negativelya.ected 1
chain presence                3 partner’s                      1
week                          3 services at reasonable costs 1
prediction                    3 recognize                      1
orleans                       3 steve douvas                   1
earnings forecasts            3 creative solutions             1
a.                            3 fm global                      1
hurricane katrina             3 infrastructure                 1
3 thursday                    3 manycompanies                  1
                      5%      3 individuals                    1
supply chain disruption       3 open-ended responses           1
chains                        3 partner                        1
close                         3 reputational/legal             1
“integrated                   3 lessons in risk mitigation     1
wednesday                     3 repairs                        1
equity                        3 steve                          1
..dwsj                        3 shortage                       1
3 wednesday                   3 attendant power outages        1
gas supply chain facilities   3 retrieval                      1
beta                                                           1
                              3 logistics disruption underperformance
year                          3 accurate assess-ment           1
k. b.                         3 detail                         1
al.                           3 competitive advantage          1
portfolio avg                 3 . res                          1
macroeconomy                                                   1
                              2 companies’ globalsourcing strategies increase exposure
                              2 product/service
hurricanes with monday landfalls                               1
cause                         2 world.hurricanes               1
nyse as being “integrated oil 2 supplier’s main factory        1
c.                            2 “my                            1
glitches                      2 fromabroad—more                1
coast hurricanes              2 orhaving alternate suppliers 1
terminals                     2 fromoverseas                   1
park                          2 natural response               1
potential disruptions         2 management teams               1
landfall possibilities        2 families                       1
south                         2 risk management:the journey1
hurricane rita                2 direct inquiries               1
source                        2 business competition           1
charley                       2 solutions                      1
concern                       2 young                          1
firms.”                       2 corporate attention            1
opal.s                                                         1
                              2 reportthat physical asset failures
china                         2 basis                          1
knots                         2 .re                            1
analysts. earnings forecasts 2 .res                            1
aarit                         2 working                        1
returns ar                    2 physical hazards—inparticular  1
wall street journal index     2 kinds                          1
marit                         2 solutions—such                 1
multiple factors              2 disru-tions                    1
introduction                  2 percentages                    1
abnormal returns for days 2 orts                               1
general conclusions           2 logistics disruptions          1
g.                            2 decisions                      1
danger                        2 direct control of the company  1
e.g.                          2 production inputs fromoverseas 1
difficulty                    2 8 % decrease                   1
average error                 2 equipment failures—far         1
intra-industry                2 manyof                         1
differences                   2 grievous proportions           1
papapetrou                    2 physical hazardwill            1
production facilities         2 operating                      1
holding                       2 alternate solutions—such       1
oil shocks                    2 non-naturalcatastrophes        1
science                       2 o.er                           1
“risk                         2 a. ectedperformance            1
coast facilities              2 thattheir                      1
tracks                        2 rita                           1
yields                        2 make insurance                 1
gas industry                                                   1
                              2 natural disaster physical asset failure
result                      2   disaster physical asset failure 1
market participants         2   least “somewhat common” 1
financial                   2   own business                    1
respect                     2   development                     1
wilcoxon tests              2   nance executivesrecognize 1
significance levels         2   publication                     1
information transfers       2   physical hazard                 1
market reactions            2   support                         1
journal index               2   make the business case          1
focus                       2   strategiesevolve                1
center                      2   supply-chain risk—are atleast1
ivan                        2   outage                          1
corporation                 2   absence of prior experience 1
past research               2   control                         1
being “integrated oil       2   diminished reputation           1
power                       2                                   1
                                underperformance of supply chainpartners
30 months                   2   veyears                         1
y.                          2   most respondents’ companies     1
more variability            2                                   1
                                globalsourcing strategies increase exposure
brownsville                 2                                   1
                                expensive remediation e. orts— repairs
variation                   2   mapping                         1
impending oil               2   edby                            1
aloui                       2   globalsourcing activities       1
management science          2   content                         1
                      10%   2   three figure                    1
existence                   2   anabundance of new risks 1
petroleum                   2   gaingreater negotiating leverage1
gains                       2   economies                       1
univariate                  2   reduc-tion                      1
m.                          2   just-in-time inventory          1
cases                       2   supplier consolidation          1
hurricane dc                2   con.rm in open-ended responses  1
mean day                    2                                   1
                                global sourcing increases exposure
et al                       2   prior experience                1
reactions                   2   startswith                      1
t                           2   accidental damage”              1
.i.rmt                      2   .nd ways                        1
winans                      2   inloss                          1
gulf coast facilities       2   boston                          1
gulf coast days             2   janecoulter.com                 1
wind speeds                 2                                   1
                                companies gaingreater negotiating leverage
likelihood                  2   onerous task                    1
one final variable          2   suppliers’                      1
supply chain glitches       2   “extended                       1
details                     2   anabundance                     1
gas firms.”                 2   risks.without                   1
opv yields                  2   % physical risks                1
date of landfall             2 recognize the risk            1
refineries                                                   1
                             2 rifewith examples of low frequency/high
opal.s landfall                                              1
                             2 suppliers on loss-prevention initiatives
jammazi                      2 cfo magazine                  1
abnormal returns ar          2                  28%          1
laux                         2 senior .nance executive       1
gas companies                2 well-formulated process       1
tropical cyclone                                             1
                             2 productionof a critical component
onshore refineries           2 253 summer street             1
sadorsky                     2 absence                       1
preponderance                2 tsunamis in southeast asia 1
common point                 2 contrary                      1
increases                    2 oppor-tunity                  1
-0.0018 dwsj                 2 inputs fromoverseas           1
f-statistics                 2 brainstorm creative solutions1
ten hurricanes               2 business processes            1
hurricane celia              2 united                        1
3 saturday                   2 risk management activitieson1
indication                   2 well-formulated               1
f.                           2 volume discounts              1
delivery                                                     1
                             2 ective supply-chain risk management
                              returns
significant negative abnormal2 business case                 1
ferderer                                                     1
                             2 low frequency/high severity pro.
panel b of tables            2 .nancial                      1
month                        2 oods                          1
twenty-one sample firms      2 volume                        1
street journal index         2 insurers with risk engineering1capabili-ties
attempts                     2 .nd                           1
% table                      2 .nance executive              1
t.                           2 natural disastersthat         1
significant abnormal returns 2 companies needto .nd ways 1
larsen                       2 improve-ment                  1
leads                        2 markets                       1
oil industry                 2 experiences                   1
finance                      2 points.”                      1
market response              2 led many companies            1
empirical analysis           2 common”                       1
landfall south               2 regional power outage.”       1
selecting                    2 large-scale catastrophes      1
% panel b                    2 increase exposure             1
lang                         2 —the                          1
tropical storm               2 teams                         1
stulz                        2 edby mapping                  1
errors                       2 key business processes        1
tropical storms              2 .ve                           1
models                       2 areas of the world            1
crude                        2 assets                        1
vast majority                  2 rogers                         1
stock returns                  2 right                          1
a. ratti                                                        1
                               2 respondentssay just-in-time inventory practices
r. a. ratti                    2 severe storm                   1
speeds                         2 opinion                        1
point                                                           1
                               2 substan-tial number of respondents
monday landfall                2 retrieval system               1
negative abnormal returns 2 logistics disru-tions               1
limits                         2 extent                         1
goldsmith                      2 culture                        1
transfers                      2 naturaldisasters               1
profits rise                   2 kinds of physical failures     1
operating profits rise         2 a report                       1
                               2
quarterly operating profits rise that’s                         1
nonparametric                  2 celina                         1
gas portfolios                 2 fewer suppliers                1
split                          2 boiler                         1
enhancements                   2 connection                     1
evidence                                                        1
                               2 e. ective supply-chain resiliency
chain glitches                                                  1
                               2 global sourcing andsupplier consolidation
carmen                         2 supply chain on hand           1
industry classification                                         1
                               2 production inputs fromabroad—more
distance                       2 speci. c risks                 1
observations                   2 partner-owned facilities       1
movement                       2 man-made disasters —anywhere   1
impact stock prices            2 temporary shortage             1
gas supply chain disruption 2 ableor                            1
-0.0010** f-statistic          2 response                       1
stock markets                                                   1
                               2 visit www.fmglobal.com physical risks
holding period                 2 risk mitigation                1
threats                        2 type of physical hazardwill 1
sample selection               2 greatest supply-chain concerns 1
knabb                          2 news                           1
landfalls within the oil       2 anywherepolitical strife       1
strength                       2 company’s financial performance1
gas production facilities      2 rights                         1
firm.s supply chain            2 physical assets                1
coast days                     2 experience                     1
u.s. gulf coast days           2 competitive pressures          1
analysts.                      2 february 2009 copyright        1
0.0213*** opv                  2 great opportunity              1
methodology                    2 .ndings                        1
might                          2 .ood                           1
following                      2 power outages                  1
data                           2 simpli.                        1
al                                                              1
                               2 source production inputs fromabroad—more
sectors                        2 right balance                  1
october                      2 sources                       1
storm tracks                 2 level                         1
chen                         2 severe consequences           1
dennis                       2 companies’ supply chains      1
miles                        2 “shut                         1
“analysts                    2 andsupplier consolidation 1
market model                 2 destructive impact            1
operations management        2 service with the suppliers    1
t-tests                                                      1
                             2 therisk of supply-chain disruption
contagion                    2 consolida-tion                1
“risk factor”                2 the                           1
% notes                      2 partner’s facilities          1
majority                     2 supply chain figure           1
final variable                                               1
                             2 “reengineering” initia-tives—e.orts
factor”                      2 chances                       1
strikes                                                      1
                             2 failures atcompany-owned facilities—have
elena                        2 caseas                        1
participants                 2 other events                  1
countries                    2 supply-chain concernsover 1
72 hours before landfall     2 gulf coast                    1
wilma                        2 respondents percentage        1
texas                                                        1
                             2 three separatecategories of physical hazard
daily returns                2 world                         1
gulf coast hurricanes        2 douvas                        1
impending threat                                             1
                             2 e. orts intense business competition
years                        2 alternative                   1
one                          2 resulting inloss              1
greater threat               2 greatestconcerns              1
ten                          2 celina rogers                 1
selection                    2 breach                        1
times                        2 low frequency/high            1
lee                          2 spring— facility              1
stakeholders                 2 troubled companies            1
cong                         2 same question                 1
univariate tests             2                   66%         1
industry earnings news       2 orts— repairs                 1
report                       2 form                          1
day t                        2 oodingin china                1
first                                                        1
                             2 physical failures—including facilities
hurricanes.                                                  1
                             2 manageproperty-related supply-chain risks
reliable forecast            1 anywherepolitical             1
sixteen hurricane estimations1 five years                    1
more oil                     1 moment                        1
two stories                  1 needto .nd ways               1
                             1 spring—
petroleum refining industry classification                   1
outlier                      1 system                        1
n.                           1 executive                     1
one-half                        1 business disruption           1
                                1 strategies
investigation of dividend announcements increase exposure 1
ro                              1 december                      1
equal one                       1 outsourcing partners          1
summarizes                      1 from finance a report         1
bankruptcy announcements 1 ectedperformance                     1
market.s awareness              1 raw materials                 1
                                1 accepting
4 re-estimate the previous regressions risk                     1
wealth                          1 man-made catastrophes—also    1
usable                          1 chain.”                       1
                                1                               1
refining pennsylvania crude oil company’s global sourcing activities increase
                                1
energy sector.s next top model ext.                             1
minimal hurricane strength 1 way                                1
                                1
gulf coast supply chain facilitiescoast                         1
impending hurricane threats 1 copyright                         1
                                1
other historical documentation perspective supply-chain risk 1  management:the journey
gas firm sample selection       1 challenge                     1
value-weighted measure          1 ma                            1
pending threat                  1 e.ciencies                    1
0.48 opal oct.                  1 e. ort                        1
abnormal return of -0.52 % 1 global physical risks              1
direction                       1 permission                    1
nhc forecast error rate         1 substantial negative impact 1
winter                          1 operations                    1
usable sample                   1 view from finance a report 1
                                  loss-prevention initiatives 1
expecting increased quarterly1earnings
might impact                    1 risk assessment               1
one category                    1 rehazards                     1
news effect                     1 pointscan                     1
anticipation                    1 understanding                 1
model returns                   1 negotiating                   1
firm histories                  1 many survey respondents 1
chronological                   1 169 respondents               1
                                1 cfo publishing
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshs.shtml corp. february 1
intra-industry effects          1 atfm                          1
                                1 u.s.
dearborn young ro assistant professor                           1
dates                           1 theircompanies’               1
elena sept.                     1 executivesrecognize           1
hurricanes. effect              1 atfm global                   1
2005 time period                1 part of the economist group 1
more volatility                 1 hazards—inparticular          1
cause disruptions               1 finance figure                1
picks                           1 communities                   1
price performance                                               partners
                                1 greater thattheir outsourcing 1
hurricane storm tracks          1 hazardwill                    1
                                1 inquiries
day before hurricane opal.s landfall                            1
event study methodology 1 two-thirds                            1
hurricane scale               1 accidental                    1
setting                                                       1
                              1 e. ective supply-chain risk management
                                                              1
disruption in the supply chain1 say lean manufacturing practices
gas supply chain on oil       1 supply-chain areas            1
goal                          1 exibility                     1
entire u.s. economy           1 corp. february                1
1.61 panel c                  1 proper understanding          1
                              1 negative impact
impact of a threatening hurricane                             1
results from table            1 2009 cfo publishing corp.     1
type                          1 integrate risk                1
economic forces               1 utmost importance             1
two areas outside the oil     1 economist group               1
                              1 visit
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml. 2 see                  1
stock price performance                                       1
                              1 large-scale man-made catastrophes—also
l. t. starks                  1 climate                       1
confounding effects           1 case                          1
problem                       1 performance survey results 1
means                         1 power outage.”                1
hurricanes with sunday        1 knowledge of insurers         1
return abnormal return        1 % percentage                  1
beta carla sept.              1 innatural disaster-prone areas1
other means                   1 economic downturn—we          1
r. stulz                      1 little                        1
                              1
primary source of information southeast                       1
tropical depressions          1 pressures                     1
“noise”                       1 company-ownedfacilities       1
65.4 % on table               1 martha young                  1
wall street journal story     1 supply-chain analysis         1
hurricane strikes             1 man-made disaster             1
                              1 journey startswith
pre-announcement stock market response                        1
actual damage                                                 1
                              1 resiliency outsourcing key business processes
obvious outlier               1 sourcing activities increase 1
                              1 poorphysical asset management
value creation process the market                             1
hour increments               1 gulf                          1
0.0217** opv                  1 jane                          1
coast supply chain facilities 1 discounts                     1
overall abnormal returns      1 event                         1
rate                          1 chainpartners                 1
matter                        1 sourcing raw materials        1
labor day cause               1 many businesses               1
                              1 complexity
independence between the estimation period                    1
                              1 administrative e.ciencies
individual days. abnormal returns                             1
allen aug.                    1 “a                            1
previous researchers          1 bret                          1
                              1 “last
landfalls within the corpus christi                           1
tropical cyclone report       1 greater detail                1
firms. supply chains          1 mumbai                        1
average number                 1 say                            1
lease                          1 thepast                        1
market portfolio               1 view from finance              1
five others                    1 main factory                   1
previous discussion of opv 1 e.ort                              1
m. wei                         1 brainstorm                     1
tropical cyclones.             1 martha                         1
day of landfall as day         1 question                       1
..opv                          1 respondents note               1
energy price volatility        1 ina                            1
measuring                      1 hand                           1
acquisition                    1 important category             1
wei                            1 array of possible prob-lems 1
1.37 notes                     1 pressure                       1
losses of this magnitude       1 same time                      1
references aloui               1 chain figure                   1
one factor                                                      1
                               1 global sourcing activities increase
documentation                  1 insurer                        1
                               1
reliable forecast that the threatmonths.”                       1
study methodology              1 economic climate               1
hurricane allen                1 .exible                        1
                               1
corresponding market reaction ahidden cost                      1
firms”                         1 security                       1
beulah                         1 .ooding—along                  1
accurate predictions           1 innatural                      1
hilda                          1 logistics disrup-tions         1
quaker state corporation       1 good news                      1
expected storm tracks          1 criterion                      1
                               1 damage
monday reports of insignificant senior management               1
producing earnings forecasts 1 departments iscritical           1
positive market response       1 departments                    1
day each hurricane                                              1
                               1 systematic consolidationof suppliers
roll                           1 sort                           1
state                          1 ort                            1
post gains                     1 “last resort.”                 1
alicia aug.                    1 competitors                    1
                               1 great opportunity for companies
interest rates in several countries                             1
show                           1 su.er                          1
abnormal stock returns         1 cfo publishing                 1
                               1 similar number
two most recent major hurricanes                                1
two days                       1 downturn—we                    1
lower f-statistics             1c                               1
multi-billion                  1 unexpected physical failures 1
hurricanes behavior            1 events:their                   1
only common point                                               1
                               1 integrate risk into supply-chain decisions
.it                            1 troubled companies in recent1   years
philipich                      1 new risks                      1
84.9 % on table               1 risk engineering capabili-ties 1
economic activity             1 potential exposures             1
                              1 proportions
operations management university                                1
1.11 alicia aug.              1 manufacturing                   1
major hurricanes on oil       1 plant                           1
1.15 carmen sept.             1 severity                        1
sixteen hurricanes            1                   62%           1
average range                 1 impact percentage               1
listing                       1 europe                          1
“petroleum refining”          1 economist                       1
decreases                                                       1
                              1 nance executivesrecognize a connection
present intensity             1 coulter                         1
2005 being the last year      1 distance                        1
threatening hurricane         1 full advantage                  1
firm i.s daily return         1 therisk                         1
day of the story              1 thattend                        1
oil companies                 1 finance a report                1
following past research       1 severebusiness                  1
                              1 thattheir outsourcing partners
is the pre-emptive market reaction                              1
precise storm track           1 wild. res                       1
behavior                                                        1
                              1 supply-chain/procurement departments iscritical
gas firms with operations     1 atleast one                     1
energy sector.s               1 orts—                           1
accuracy report                                                 1
                              1 critical supplier’s potential exposures
-0.0011 dwsj                  1 recent attacks                  1
interesting insights          1 loss-prevention                 1
weeks                         1 www.fmglobal.com physical risks 1
mention                                                         1
                              1 company’s global sourcing strategy increases
1.02 katrina aug.             1 severebusiness interruption 1
error rates in perspective    1 e. orts— repairs                1
                              1 tracks
hurricanes with expected stormsurprises                         1
                              1 potential suppliers
landfall location important variables                           1
major confounding effects 1 supply chain a hidden cost 1
bad news events               1                   67%           1
hurricane seasons             1 damage”                         1
52.8 % on table               1 con.                            1
products                                                        1
                              1 companies’ outsourcing strategiesevolve
“non-event”                   1 company’s risks                 1
camille aug.                  1 alternate suppliers             1
due                           1 deadly storm                    1
category 4 hurricanes         1                   54%           1
it.s hurricane season         1 page                            1
                                                                1
predicting storm intensity 1 expensive remediation efforts—repairs
close of markets on friday 1 recent natural disastersthat 1
eventual location             1 respon-dents                    1
re-estimate                   1 caseof                          1
market model returns          1 a. ected performance.           1
delivery of final products                                    1
                             1 required expensive remediation efforts—repairs
r. jammazi                   1 notmean                        1
final section summarizes     1 revenues                       1
vast majority of oil         1 failures—including facilities 1
results. 6 see               1 future supply-chain concerns 1
oil company returns          1 strategy                       1
picks up.”                                                    1
                             1 catastrophic events:their destructive impact
ivan sept.                                                    1
                             1 just-in-time inventory practices
flows                        1 c risks                        1
firm sample selection        1 driving companies              1
hundreds of miles            1 asset management               1
news events                  1 risk—are                       1
crude oil                    1 example                        1
paper                        1 engineering capabili-ties      1
hour notice                  1 .oods                          1
knowledge                    1                 100%           1
remaining sample firms                                        1
                             1 ected performance survey results
eloise                       1 manyof these critical suppliers1
awareness                    1 activitieson                   1
next                         1 management activitieson        1
                             1 category
vivek sharma assistant professor                              1
                             1 supplychain
gas corridor because these hurricanes                         1
r. f.                        1 caseof a disruption            1
conjecture                   1 history                        1
confound                     1 practices—business practices1  thattend
market revalues firms        1 manufacturing practices        1
return measures              1 u.s. gulf coast                1
0.65 wilma oct.                                               1
                             1 complexity consolida-tion increases exposure
forecasting the storm track 1 th e speci. c risks             1
portfolio returns            1 time                           1
storm.s position             1 recognition                    1
greece                       1 efforts—repairs                1
finding                                                       1
                             1 supply-chain risk management activitieson
                             1 transactions
supply chain than previous research                           1
switching                    1 hazard                         1
3 tuesday                    1 whole economies                1
acquisition of raw material 1 power outage                    1
average .s                   1 e challenge                    1
reliable common point        1 direct control                 1
h. p.                        1 corporate                      1
relationships                1 framework                      1
position                     1 sourcing practices             1
rating                                                        1
                             1 sourcing andsupplier consolidation
sunday landfall              1 lost pro. ts                   1
situations                   1 developing alternative products1
connecting forecasts                                          1
                             1 disaster substantial negative impact
vast majority of cases       1 disaster-prone areas           1
crsp as “petroleum refining” 1 a.ect                             1
4 monday                       1 loss of con. dence              1
major hurricane strikes        1 severity pro.                   1
category hurricanes            1 examples o.er                   1
petro-canada                   1 disas-ters                      1
hurricane events with sunday1 viewtheir supply-chain analysis    1
frederic sept.                 1 equipment— as physical failures 1
others                                                           1
                               1 physical assets along the supplychain
saffir-simpson                 1 task                            1
2005 hurricane katrina         1 intro-ducing distance           1
historical documentation       1 bycfo                           1
hurricane sample               1 more resilient supply chain 1
firm management                1 india                           1
quaker                         1 opportunity                     1
regressions                    1 service providers               1
returns for those hurricanes 1 collaboration                     1
labor day landfall             1 a.ected performance             1
up.”                           1 engineering                     1
impacts                        1 utmost importance in order 1
dollar                         1 ongoing basis                   1
                               1 reason
percentage market model abnormal returns                         1
“analysts see rise             1 initiatives                     1
                                                                 1
abnormal return measures 1 theircompanies’ greatest supply-chain concerns
day before opal.s landfall     1 property-related exposures 1
caribbean                      1 attacks—a                       1
two-tail                       1 risk—are atleast                1
proxies for the threat         1 “logistics                      1
references                     1 achieve                         1
                               1 facilities of those key suppliers
expected storm track information                                 1
significant results            1 more supply-chain surprises 1
                               1 plans
remaining hurricanes with monday landfalls                       1
stock market shifts behaviour1 overseassuppliers                 1
hurricanes with landfalls                                        1
                               1 orts intense business competition
evacuation of galveston        1 “a .re                          1
largest observed average       1 withnumerous                    1
plus                           1 assessment                      1
journal story                  1 negative impact percentage 1
own prediction                 1 supply chainpartners            1
                                level
wilcoxon two-tail significance1 working with the risk management 1
see rise                       1 supplier diversi.cation         1
stocks last winter                                               1
                               1 light of recent natural disastersthat
entire west coast              1 productionof                    1
day hurricane alicia           1 paidto                          1
.-weighted return                                                1
                               1 located innatural disaster-prone areas
16 hurricanes including alicia 1 attacks                         1
nhc.s historical error rates 1 critical component                1
u.s. gulf coast oil            1 e speci. c risks                1
gas firm                      1 street                          1
verifiable oil                1 frequency/high severity pro. 1
wall street journal stories   1 inventory practices             1
capture                       1 withnumerous key suppliers 1
-0.0004 f-statistic                                             1
                              1 supplychain-related performance shortfalls—negativelya.ected
2004 storm track predictions 1 critical criterion for selection 1
energy journal                1 expense                         1
                                                                1
adjusted abnormal return 1 company-owned facilitiesnegatively a. ected performance.
                              1 reasonable
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml. costs                    1
least noisy observations      1 ways                            1
forecasters that katrina      1 balance                         1
rank tests                    1 solid majority                  1
preempt                       1 similar number of respondents   1
yoon                          1 .nancial performance            1
official                      1 management:the                  1
following insights            1 states                          1
ibes analyst data             1 disasters —anywhere             1
finance university            1 develop                         1
young                                                           1
                              1 one operation.” several respondents
panels b                                                        1
                              1 performance shortfalls—negativelya.ected
previous discussion           1 inter-ruptions                  1
carmen sept.                  1 disrup-tions                    1
forecasting storm intensity 1 disruption underperformance1
0.93 allen aug.               1 supplier’s potential exposures  1
                              1
significant explanatory variable needto                         1
rita sept.                    1 current economic climate        1
                              1
coefficients on the opv variablee.cient                         1
archive                       1 disruptions                     1
                              1 from finance figure
potential effects of confounding factors                        1
multi-billion dollar losses   1 production inputs               1
forecasters                   1 equipment—                      1
street journal stories        1 alternative products            1
procedures                    1 “reengineering”                 1
ieee                          1 majority                        1
. panel                       1 same say lean manufacturing 1   practices
sector.s                      1 overseas                        1
s. ni                         1 lineand                         1
nyse listing                  1 name                            1
business                                                        1
                              1 respondents’ future supply-chain concerns
raw material                  1 southeast asia                  1
decisions                     1 market competitiveness          1
locations                     1 failures—far                    1
little concern                1 consequences                    1
82.4 % on table                                                 1
                              1 man-made disaster substantial negative impact
c. m.                         1 supply chain.” 15 %             1
                              1 summer street
dearborn vivek sharma assistant professor                       1
s. a. ross                    1 attention                       1
previous section               1 negative impact little       1
hurricanes katrina             1 united states                1
actual return for day t        1 events                       1
firm.s ability                 1 initia-tives—e.orts          1
market adjusted abnormal return1 companies’ greatestconcerns1
expected track                 1 providers                    1
                               1
own prediction of the damage risk inadvance                   1
financial economics            1 lessons                      1
p. s. yoon                     1 poorphysical                 1
situations firms               1 sourcing increases exposure 1
company portfolio returns 1 a.                                1
ross                           1 hurricane katrina            1
websites                       1 supply-chain partner         1
speed                          1 supply-chain surprises       1
betsy sept.                                                   1
                               1 operation.” several respondents
0.51 andrew aug.               1 ected performance.           1
prior year                     1 global economic downturn—we  1
n. f.                          1 leverage                     1
approximate landfall           1 following supply-chain areas 1
three days                     1 harm physical asset failure 1
estimates for thirteen         1 survey responses             1
                               1 critical criterion
seven types of tropical cyclones.                             1
vivek                          1 inputs fromabroad—more 1
                               1%
small number of hurricane eventsdecrease                      1
center.s archive               1 hurricanekatrina             1
tropical cyclone intensity     1 ahnell                       1
                               1                              1
mention of gulf coast facilities unexpected physical failures—including facilities
market activity                1 ciency                       1
credence                                                      1
                               1 reputational/legal harm physical asset failure
industry.                      1 attacks—a man-made disaster  1
financial management           1 .ve years                    1
perceived threat               1 mitigation                   1
accounting university          1 compo-nent.”                 1
caribbean as hurricanes        1 outsourcing strategiesevolve 1
gulf of mexico on friday       1 publishing corp. february    1
investors                      1 substan-tial number          1
                                                              1
experience actual damage 1 critical supply-chain risk management activitieson
                               1 assess-ment
reports forecasting substantial increases                     1
wall street journal pertaining 1 prob-lems                    1
important variables            1 part of this report          1
jiao                           1 resilient supply chain       1
concerning oil                 1 view from finance figure     1
                               1 integrate
section discusses major hurricanes                            1
gulf coast hurricane           1 high-value products          1
                               1
different insights than the days loss                         1
randomization                  1 bycfo publishing corp.       1
primary interest               1 outages                      1
eighteen major hurricanes 1 speci.                          1
exhibiting little variation 1 harm                          1
public                      1 sponsored research group 1
minus one category          1 ts                            1
celia aug.                  1 “tornado                      1
including alicia                                            1
                            1 atcompany-owned facilities—have
d. p. brown                 1 con. dence                    1
storm danger                1 one                           1
macroeconomic variables     1 current sourcing practices 1
possible supply disruptions 1 e bene.ts                     1
consistency                                                 1
                            1 suppliers orhaving alternate suppliers
sharma                                                      1
                            1 events:their destructive impact
potential source of noise                                   1
                            1 supply-chain risk management:the journey
.s equal one                1 greater inventory             1
gas region                  1 array                         1
portion                     1 supply-chain risk management  1
dwsj coefficient            1 infrastructure failures       1
forty years                 1 selection                     1
recent major hurricanes     1 boiler explosion that “shut 1
                            1 sourcing
mean market adjusted abnormal returnsproduction inputs 1
potential risk factor                                       1
                            1 companies’ .nancial performance
                                                            1
movement in oil spot prices 1 companies’ global sourcing increases exposure
behaviour                   1 oods non-naturalcatastrophes  1
abstract past research      1 decision                      1
previous studies            1 stay                          1
significant day             1 key compo-nent.”              1
specific                    1 management:the journey        1
                            1 disastersthat
expanded accumulation windows                               1
journal of business         1                  47%          1
twenty-one hurricane sample1 perspective                    1
hurricane bret              1 strategy increases            1
it.s                        1 gaingreater                   1
sampling procedures         1 . oods non-naturalcatastrophes1
evacuation decisions        1 inadvance                     1
hurricane threats                                           1
                            1 consolida-tion increases exposure
other individual day        1 sourcing strategies           1
hurricane.s category        1 thepast .ve years             1
larger portion              1 september                     1
signal                      1 issues                        1
r. rhome                    1 room                          1
equity investor             1 outage.”                      1
approach                    1 help                          1
u.s. economy                1 unexpected disruption         1
order for the oil           1 way in this e. ort            1
wind speed                  1 competition                   1
expanded using firms        1 information                   1
coming weeks                1 corporations                  1
labor day cause the models 1 published bycfo publishing corp.1
wilma oct.                    1 iscritical                   1
non-zero                      1 “extended power outage       1
unannounced                                                  initia-tives—e.orts
                              1 supply-chain “reengineering” 1
revalues                      1 solid majority of respondents1
.s range                      1 corporate culture            1
expected damage               1
entire gulf coast             1
                              1
market adjusted return abnormal return
firm aarit.s                  1
most intense hurricanes       1
portfolio average .s          1
macroeconomics                1
y. m. wei                     1
y. fan                        1
impact equity investors       1
sale                          1
crude oil prices              1
u.s. gulf coast panel         1
nonparametric wilcoxon tests1
firm marit„s                  1
chen et al                    1
returns for days              1
monday.s returns              1
l. jiao                       1
difficulties                  1
gulf coast major hurricanes 1
combined coefficients         1
higher                        1
importance of the supply chain1
greatest chance of identifying1oil
                              1
percentage market adjusted abnormal returns
                              1
returns for hurricanes with landfalls
coast presence                1
captures                      1
integrated oil                1
dividend announcements        1
occurring causes returns      1
reported abnormal returns 1
gas industry.                 1
relative importance           1
good proxy                    1
explanatory power             1
higher opv                    1
gulf coast areas              1
                              1
corresponding sixteen hurricane estimations
ro assistant professor        1
viable forecast               1
results for the day           1
category at landfall          1
tuesday.s                     1
place drilling platforms      1
hurricanes “stalled”          1
two oil                       1
philipich assistant professor 1
greatest noise                1
“oil                          1
lastly                        1
financial analysts            1
katrina aug.                  1
sunday morning                1
market value of the firm      1
coast supply chain            1
chemical woes                 1
magnitude                     1
0.79 betsy sept.              1
equation                      1
severe problem                1
hurricane event               1
announcements of disruptions  1
nonparametric tests limits 1
coast hurricane               1
4 thursday                    1
friday.s returns              1
equity investors              1
coast major hurricane         1
impact firm performance       1
coefficients on opv yields    1
inclusion                     1
forty                         1
ecopetrol s.a.                1
coefficients on opv for day 1
oil stocks                    1
daily returns from crsp       1
refining”                     1
“oil companies                1
lower returns                 1
charley aug.                  1
1 being                       1
storm track information       1
only significant reaction     1
post                          1
opv variable                  1
economy                       1
bad news event                1
                              1
market model abnormal returns ar
2005 panel                    1
extent                        1
                              1
adjusted return abnormal return
landfall date                 1
discusses                     1
measures                      1
completeness                  1
landfall locations            1
greatest chance               1
track predictions             1
estimated coefficients on opv1
table 1 shows                 1
empirical results             1
portfolio abnormal return 1
j. p.                         1
e. 2001 oil price shocks      1
research shows                1
reversal                      1
                              1
long-run stock price performance
significant model             1
                              1
maximum of twenty-one hurricanes
producers price index for oil 1
preponderance of both onshore 1
concentrated table            1
various accumulation windows  1
cong et al                    1
post-1986 time period         1
                              1
hurricanes “stalled” in the gulf
intense hurricanes            1
hurricanes reaching land      1
market prices                 1
experience                    1
                              1
inter-firm information transfers
individual                    1
                              1
portfolio-level market adjusted abnormal returns
forecast error rate           1
1.05 panel b                  1
noisy observations            1
using firms                   1
                              1
tests for the combined coefficients
top model                     1
weather models as of friday 1
gulf coast major hurricane 1
sources                       1
pre-announcement              1
center.s                       1
87.1 % on table                1
season                         1
dissipates                     1
ieee spectrum                  1
none                           1
section summarizes             1
holding period in order        1
                               1
two-day market adjusted abnormal return
                               1
analysts producing earnings forecasts
d. parsons                     1
smallest yearly errors         1
observed average               1
supply chain of oil            1
management university          1
journal stories                1
rhome                          1
three-day window               1
-0.0009 dwsj                   1
been little concern            1
location important variables 1
number of days each hurricane  1
landfall dates                 1
crsp data                      1
several countries              1
filter                         1
18 knots                       1
sign rank tests                1
cyclones                       1
sic industry classification    1
journal of macroeconomics 1
offshore gulf coast oil        1
                               1
substantial intersection of firms
days. abnormal returns         1
spring                         1
intersection                   1
reaction hurricanes            1
chain lead                     1
bad news                       1
coast hurricane events         1
morning                        1
last year                      1
subsequent tests               1
recommend”                     1
approximate landfalls          1
market.s response              1
hurricane alicia               1
decrease                       1
single day                     1
studies                        1
0.71 dennis july               1
corridor variables             1
potential disruption           1
possible impact                1
average firm                   1
error rate                     1
specific firms                 1
table 1 details                1
expected impact                1
kirk                           1
positive earnings news         1
j. r. rhome                    1
nhc.s                          1
higher at landfall             1
landfall errors                1
equity risk                    1
portfolio of oil               1
portfolio average              1
subject                        1
13 european countries          1
individual firm marit„s        1
price volatility shocks        1
coefficient on dwsj            1
yearly error rates             1
                               1
galveston 48 hours before landfall
individual firm aarit.s        1
negative threat                1
wilcoxon sign rank tests       1
1.04 celia aug.                1
bankruptcy                     1
                               1
two-day market model abnormal return
cyclone report                 1
simultaneous effects           1
                               1
kirk philipich assistant professor
“stalled”                      1
48 hours before landfall       1
when                           1
c of table                     1
mean days                      1
historical error rates         1
value-weighted market portfolio1
market shifts behaviour        1
chemical woes”                 1
combination of days            1
overall significance            1
previous friday.s returns       1
inclusion of these hurricanes 1
noisy events                    1
nautical                        1
july                            1
policy                          1
                                1
association between supply chain glitches
oil stocks last winter          1
market’s                        1
addition                        1
firm annual reports             1
storm.s                         1
tropical storms in the gulf 1
investor                        1
entire supply chain             1
bret aug.                       1
substantial increases           1
0.83 panel b                    1
thirteen                        1
terms                           1
track uncertainty               1
woes                            1
hurricane opal.s landfall       1
observed reaction               1
risk management                 1
andrew aug.                     1
l. h. p.                        1
                                1
concentrated table 1 major hurricanes
a. ross                         1
monday within the oil           1
storm track forecasts           1
gulf coast supply chain         1
additional empirical evidence1
individual day                  1
nhc 72 hour                     1
official nhc forecast error rate1
ashore.6 hurricane celia        1
discusses major hurricanes 1
rank                            1
accumulated abnormal returns    1
andrew                          1
potential loss                  1
“non-event” day                 1
“we                             1
widespread damage               1
map                             1
examination                   1
chinese oil company returns 1
benefit                       1
sign                          1
sample of major hurricanes 1
negative impact               1
affect                        1
stock values                  1
number of events              1
benefit from a threat         1
case                          1
saffir-simpson hurricane scale1
short lead times              1
                              1
impending supply chain disruptions
regime                        1
summary                       1
energy policy                 1
0.93 elena sept.              1
day cause                     1
                              1
major domestics if stock prices
deaths                        1
daily crsp data               1
causes                        1
observation                   1
combination                   1
                              1
returns on the preceding friday
largest negative returns      1
actual day                    1
equity risk of the firm       1
confounding                   1
average .s range              1
                              1
national hurricane center.s archive
quarterly earnings            1
                              1
remaining eighteen major hurricanes
addition of a “non-event” day1
frederic                      1
coast panel                   1
profits over the prior year 1
leaves ten hurricanes         1
market’s reaction hurricanes 1
firm.s stakeholders           1
                              1
relationships between oil price shocks
scale                         1
news event                    1
returns table                 1
                              1
forecasting substantial increases
pertaining                    1
uncertainty                   1
negative market reactions 1
0.99 panel c                  1
monday.s                      1
causes returns                1
event study                   1
daily return                  1
separate abnormal returns 1
refining firms                1
255 daily returns             1
revalues firms                1
extended period               1
potential threat              1
real danger                   1
portfolio-level market model 1abnormal returns
category 3 hurricanes.        1
impending storm               1
reaching land                 1
switching approach            1
great difficulty              1
required use                  1
more negative mean returns 1
expected impact on the oil 1
months.”                      1
available information         1
estimated coefficient         1
firm average                  1
table 2 results               1
four hurricanes               1
63.6 % on table               1
monitoring                    1
noisy returns                 1
results.                      1
abnormal return of -0.47 % 1
s. yoon                       1
significant level             1
is                            1
journal pertaining            1
negative day                  1
good news                     1
r. roll                       1
association                   1
empirical analysis from china 1
marit„s                       1
potential effects             1
landfall forecasts            1
track forecasts               1
merger activity within the oil 1
market value                   1
                               1
using market model abnormal returns
firm websites                  1
entire west coast of florida 1
dearborn abstract past research1
national hurricane center      1
competitors                    1
                               1
general economic activity picks up.”
650 pipelines                  1
two-tail significance level    1
actual landfall location       1
pre-emptive market reaction 1
4 friday                       1
shifts behaviour               1
past                           1
occurring disruptions          1
street journal story           1
1-5 rating                     1
                               1
negative returns for the hurricanes
confounding factors            1
tests limits                   1
accounting                     1
substantial intersection       1
gulf region                    1
firm performance               1
“petroleum refining            1
% levels                       1
gas firms”                     1
                               1
hurricane center forecast accuracy report
supply disruption              1
overall significant model      1
significant reaction           1
                               1
disruptions in firm supply chains
monday reports                 1
severity                       1
small number                   1
excluding labor day            1
center forecast accuracy report1
                               1
anticipation of a potential loss
preceding friday               1
missing risk factor            1
insignificant damage           1
landfall south of apalachicola 1
cash                           1
various windows                1
knabb et al.                   1
                              1
use the twenty-one major hurricanes
results for day               1
s.a.                          1
range of .s                   1
                              1
dependent variable for completeness
entire industry               1
beulah sept.                  1
firm supply chains            1
stock market participants     1
different category hurricanes 1
power of subsequent tests 1
opal oct.                     1
oil price volatility shocks   1
coast major hurricanes        1
                              1
minimal hurricane strength until saturday
                              1
contagion in intra-industry information transfers
real stock returns            1
firm announcement             1
coast areas                   1
chemical corporation          1
sharma assistant professor 1
european countries            1
close monitoring              1
detection                     1
notice                        1
prediction of the timing      1
                              1
viable forecast that the threat
73.3 % on table               1
accurate forecast             1
pennsylvania crude oil        1
exact track                   1
hurricane wind speeds         1
eventual landfall             1
focus in this research        1
starks                        1
future cash flows             1
production region             1
-0.0003 f-statistic           1
day of landfall               1
regime switching approach 1
mean returns                  1
e.g. industry earnings news 1
                              1
coefficient on the dummy variable
                              1
final section summarizes the paper
scrutiny                      1
attempt                       1
sixteen-year                  1
                               1
next section discusses major hurricanes
estimated coefficient on opv 1
most recent major hurricanes1
hurricane center.s archive 1
coefficients shows             1
more credence                  1
chronological list             1
best available information 1
respects                       1
careful scrutiny               1
estimation                     1
increments                     1
hurricane damage               1
accuracy                       1
types                          1
                               1
larger negative market reactions
other sources                  1
“petroleum refining firms      1
historical record              1
many previous researchers 1
independence                   1
tropical storm on the friday 1
possible major hurricane threat1
results on panel               1
specific reports               1
abnormal returns table         1
different insights             1
additional returns for day     1
domestics                      1
storm track predictions        1
most significant results       1
reported spot prices           1
measure                        1
landfall storm track forecasts 1
primary source                 1
producers price                1
endangered galveston           1
north                          1
predicting landfall            1
                               1
terms of predicting storm intensity
employment in greece           1
                               1
long-term underperforming stocks
r. d.                          1
                               1
landfall south of corpus christi
firms.                         1
hurricane estimations          1
                               1
mean market model abnormal return
tropical cyclones               1
economic                        1
hurricane strength              1
effort                          1
weather models                  1
seasons                         1
0.0216*** opv                   1
.i                              1
public evacuation decisions 1
operating performance           1
weather                         1
                                1
impending gulf coast major hurricane
zero                            1
primary oil                     1
lease areas                     1
5 sunday                        1
possible error                  1
volatility shocks               1
portfolio-level                 1
journal of operations management1
captures the market.s reaction  1
gulf coast of florida           1
115 drilling platforms          1
hurricane center                1
leaves                          1
explanatory variable            1
refining industry classification1
individual significance         1
usable sample of hurricanes 1
portfolio decreases             1
young ro assistant professor 1
record                          1
0.89 camille aug.               1
measuring the market.s response 1
fewest number                   1
lesser extent                   1
values                          1
more noise                      1
gulf coast hurricane events 1
increased quarterly earnings 1
r. g.                           1
fan                             1
maximum                         1
differentiates                  1
land on monday                  1
                                1
competitive intra-industry effects
merger                          1
gulf coast presence           1
discussion                    1
1.59 bret aug.                1
delivery of oil               1
lee et al.                    1
yearly errors                 1
positive impact on returns 1
0.47 ivan sept.               1
                              1
lower returns than for hurricanes
central gulf                  1
timing of the hurricane       1
betsy                         1
1.06 eloise sept.             1
filter out noise              1
labor day                     1
supply disruptions            1
employment                    1
noisy signal                  1
daily market model abnormal1return
                              1
separate abnormal returns from day
positive impact               1
final products                1
affecting abnormal returns 1
list                          1
company management            1
facilities.                   1
difference                    1
eight portfolio average .s    1
sic                           1
last winter                   1
size                          1
estimates                     1
cyclone intensity             1
eventual landfalls            1
significance level            1
                              1
impacts the stock market.s reaction
observed market reactions 1
0.88 hilda oct.               1
pennsylvania                  1
hereby                        1
categories                    1
firms experience actual damage1
sample of oil                 1
potential source              1
several factors               1
cash flows                    1
oil spot prices               1
gas production region         1
16 hurricanes                 1
eloise sept.                  1
stock market.s awareness 1
supply chain lead             1
other factors                 1
new insights                  1
lead times                    1
gas corridor results          1
underperforming stocks        1
essence                       1
little impact                 1
activity picks up.”           1
histories                     1
land near new orleans         1
shifts                        1
three                         1
                              1
value creation process these firms
shareholder wealth            1
j. l. jiao                    1
gas facilities.               1
conclusions this research     1
gas industry profits          1
empirical evidence            1
yielding                      1
i.s daily return              1
minus                         1
very close                    1
h.                            1
variability of oil prices     1
chance                        1
economic activity picks up.” 1
j. l.                         1
announcement                  1
remaining hurricanes          1
gas lease areas               1
firm specific reports         1
                       80%    1
                              1
volatility affect both macroeconomic variables
hurricane track uncertainty 1
systematic risk               1
journal of financial economics1
p. brown                      1
gas corridor while the market1
volatility affect             1
beta beulah sept.             1
                              1
detection of significant abnormal returns
friday.s                    1
crude oil shocks            1
eventual landfall location  1
volatility period           1
hilda oct.                  1
examples                    1
                            1
daily market adjusted abnormal returns
major domestics             1
forecast accuracy report    1
                            1
approximate sixteen-year average
dividend                    1
researchers                 1
gulf coast panel            1
china petroleum             1
africa                      1
fewest number of months 1
panels                      1
low volatility period       1
cyclones.                   1
merger activity             1
selecting oil               1
journal of finance          1
negative mean returns       1
one analyst                 1
impending hurricanes        1
observed factors            1
events of interest          1
sample size                 1
forces                      1
risk factor for these oil   1
sixteen-year average        1
investigation               1
previous regressions        1
offshore oil                1
primary factor              1
state corporation           1
conjunction                 1
progress                    1
potential impact            1
160 nautical miles          1
stock market activity       1
analyst data                1
more variation              1
eighteen                    1
stock markets in the u.s.   1
industry profits            1
preempt any impact          1
affected firms                   1
major hurricane.s landfall       1
more severe problem              1
little variation                 1
street journal pertaining        1
one day                          1
aforementioned alicia            1
                                 1
relative importance of competition
estimation period                1
monthly producers price index    1
nautical miles                   1
significant returns              1
identifying oil                  1
model abnormal returns ar 1
                                 1
intra-industry information transfers
category 3 hurricane             1
overriding concern               1
-0.47 % for day                  1
1.05 rita sept.                  1
carla sept.                      1
.-weighted                       1
doubt                            1
actual return                    1
saturdays                        1
                                 1
gas facilities. 3 tropical cyclones
dependent variables              1
market return                    1
g. kaul                          1
proxies                          1
laux et al.                      1
twenty-one hurricane events 1
non-zero standard deviation 1
tuesdays                         1
loss                             1
brown                            1
track information                1
spectrum                         1
gas corridor variables           1
woes”                            1
hurricane season                 1
ecopetrol                        1
                                 1
crsp petroleum refining industry classification
long-run                         1
interest rates                   1
additional returns               1
two landfall possibilities       1
gas company portfolio returns    1
24 hours before landfall       1
more negative returns          1
limited sample size            1
relationship                   1
quarter                        1
other hurricanes               1
other sources of “noise”       1
primary goal                   1
ni                             1
significant relationship       1
common knowledge               1
stock market response          1
79.5 % on table                1
median tests                   1
hurricanes including alicia 1
dollar losses                  1
72 hours before landfall errors1
material                       1
aarit.s                        1
                               1
accumulated market model returns
approximate average            1
annual reports                 1
additional evidence            1
perspective                    1
actual supply chain disruption 1
t. starks                      1
corridor results               1
groups                         1
depressions                    1
become zero                    1
dennis july                    1
announced enhancements 1
beta charley aug.              1
days.                          1
day landfall                   1
0.91 frederic sept.            1
location of both onshore       1
company returns                1
coefficient on opv             1
                               1
sixteen of these major hurricanes
abstract                       1
following regression           1
                               1
use of nonparametric tests limits
place                          1
volatility of crude oil prices 1
panel b of table               1
availability                   1
hundreds                   1
gas supply chain lead      1
19 knots                   1
competition                1
shareholder                1
only reliable common point 1
p                        10%
p                         5%
p                         1%
p                         1%
                        ####
                        ####

				
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posted:11/1/2011
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