Bilag_15_og_19_-_Worst_case_-_McKinsey_Valuation_Model by cuiliqing

VIEWS: 9 PAGES: 69

									1/11/2011 5:40
Error check = OK
Name - Worst case
DK t.kr                                    Other inputs         2005               2006
                                                          ------------------ ------------------
Historical Income Statement
Revenues                                                       447,038            503,976
Other Operating Revenues                                        15,251             35,065
Costs of Goods Sold                                            (28,613)           (32,728)
Selling, Gen & Admin Expenses                                 (322,461)          (368,949)
Depreciation Expense                                           (21,314)           (24,342)
Other Operating Expense                                         (2,432)            (3,133)
Reported EBITA                                                   87,469           109,889
Amortization of Goodwill                                              0                  0
Amortization of Intangibles                                           0                  0
Non-Operating Income                                            (15,281)           (33,664)
Interest Income                                                   7,383              6,213
Interest Expense                                                (24,029)           (24,753)
Restructuring Charges                                                 0                  0
Special Items                                                      (488)                 0
Earnings Before Taxes                                            55,054             57,685
Income Taxes                                                    (13,355)           (16,406)
Minority Interest                                                (3,942)            (7,391)
Income Before Extraord. Items                                    37,757             33,888
Extraord. Items (After Tax)                                        2,169            25,246
Net Income                                                       39,926             59,134
Preference dividends                                                     0                 0
Earnings for common shareholders                                 39,926             59,134
Common dividends                                                (22,219)                   0
Retained profit                                                  17,707             59,134




Statement of changes in equity

Historical Balance Sheet
Operating Cash                                               22,561                53,651
Excess marketable securities                                 44,515                 7,950
Accounts Receivable                                        127,151                107,817
                        05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                   Page 1
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Name - Worst case
DK t.kr                                     Other inputs         2005               2006
                                                           ------------------ ------------------
Inventories                                                       14,446             17,187
Other Current Assets                                                6,914              5,315
Total Current Assets                                            215,587            191,920
Net Property Plant and Equip                                    455,102            477,222
Goodwill                                                         80,020             82,518
Other Intangible Assets                                          60,528            105,567
Other Operating Assets                                                0                  0
Investments & Advances                                          357,289            392,837
Deferred tax Asset                                                2,994              5,585
Other Non-op Assets                                                   0                  0
Retirement Related Assets (non-operating)                             0                  0
Total Assets                                                  1,171,520         1,255,649




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                    Page 2
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Name - Worst case
DK t.kr                                     Other inputs         2005               2006
                                                           ------------------ ------------------
Short Term Debt                                                   61,682            376,332
Accounts Payable                                                 153,318            136,424
Tax Payable                                                         5,013                 131
Dividends Payable                                                 22,219                     0
Other Current Liabilities                                         45,289             61,977
Total Current Liabilities                                        287,521            574,864

Balancing Debt                                                        0                  0
Long Term Debt                                                  298,103            137,618
Deferred Income Taxes                                            54,639             75,247
Other operating liabilities                                       5,960             17,385
Restructuring Provisions                                              0                  0
Income smoothing Provisions                                           0                  0
On-going operating Provisions                                         0                  0
Long-term operating Provisions                                        0                  0
Retirement Related Liabilities                                        0                  0
Minority Interest                                                20,295             24,119
Preferred Stock                                                       0                  0
Total Long Term Liabilities                                     378,997            254,369
Total Common Equity                                             505,002            426,416
Total Liabs and Equity                                        1,171,520         1,255,649
Balance sheet check                             OK                        0                 0

Off Balance Sheet Items
Marginal Tax Rate                                                28.0%        28.0%
Capital Expenditure
Initial Cumulative Goodwill Written Off             2,465
Initial Cumulative Intangibles Written Off         60,664 note 16 1. regnskab
Market Value of Common Equity                                1,058,967    2,342,718
Non-operating component of pension expense                          -           -
Weighted Average Cost of Capital                                 6.87%        7.99%
Risk Free Rate (10 yr T-bond, avg yr.)                             3.4%        3.8%
Operating Leases                                                      0           0
Interest rate on Operating Leases %                                0.0%        0.0%
Interest rate on Long-term operating Provision                     0.0%        0.0%
Number of ordinary shares (average) (000)                        2,469        2,469
Number of ordinary shares (year end) (000)                       2,469        2,469
Additional number of shares if fully diluted(000)
                           05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                    Page 3
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Name - Worst case
DK t.kr                                   Other inputs         2005               2006
                                                         ------------------ ------------------
Par value of preference shares (DK)




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                  Page 4
= Calculation


      2007               2008               2009
------------------ ------------------ ------------------

     994,476          1,597,904         1,752,192
      38,951                  0           (38,000)
     (50,465)          (537,843)         (449,880)
    (727,538)          (799,781)         (996,558)
     (52,797)           (64,962)          (83,328)
      (1,778)            (3,571)           (3,457)
     200,849            191,747            180,969
            0                 0                  0
      (25,701)           (4,982)            (5,378)
      (26,254)          (18,453)           (86,412)
        5,455             3,525             15,187
      (46,413)         (125,206)          (108,251)
            0                 0                  0
            0                 0           (242,955)
     107,937              46,631          (246,840)
      (20,907)           (13,005)             7,826
       (5,271)            (3,209)               193
       81,759             30,417          (238,821)
         4,394                218                217
       86,153             30,635          (238,604)
               0                  0                 0
       86,153             30,635          (238,604)
               0                  0                 0
       86,153             30,635          (238,604)




   101,133     122,554      172,607
   207,096     207,177          9,000
   152,324     291,604        96,914
                      05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                   Page 5
= Calculation


      2007               2008               2009
------------------ ------------------ ------------------
      312,357            315,647            106,147
       13,206             15,601               9,086
     786,116            952,583            393,754
     972,556          1,560,010         1,638,537
     449,463            452,367           288,534
     150,717            197,887           128,148
           0                  0                 0
           0                  0           428,836
       4,588              3,758             3,063
      18,943             30,795            31,318
           0                  0                 0
   2,382,383          3,197,400         2,912,190




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 6
= Calculation


      2007               2008               2009
------------------ ------------------ ------------------
      922,342            976,252         1,114,980
      304,141            268,588            170,328
         2,538              7,038              5,842
               0                  0                  0
      102,151             49,901             43,231
   1,331,172          1,301,779          1,334,381

           0                  0                 0
     223,296          1,114,301         1,016,336
     132,321            126,319           112,412
      31,036            103,785           130,606
           0                  0                 0
           0                  0                 0
           0                  0                 0
           0                  0                 0
           0                  0                 0
      34,408                193                 0
           0                  0                 0
     421,061          1,344,598         1,259,354
     630,150            551,023            318,455
   2,382,383          3,197,400         2,912,190
               0                  0                 0


         25.0%              25.0%             25.0%




   3,002,061            987,520            748,046
         -                  -                  -
       8.74%              5.92%              4.54%
        4.3%               4.3%               3.6%
           0                  0                  0
        0.0%               0.0%               0.0%
        0.0%               0.0%               0.0%
       2,469              2,469              2,469
       2,469              2,469              2,469

                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 7
= Calculation


      2007               2008               2009
------------------ ------------------ ------------------




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McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 8
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McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 9
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McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 10
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McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 11
                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 12
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Error check = OK
Name - Worst case
DK t.kr                                  Range name              Other inputs             2005
                                                                                -----------------
General
Name                                     Name                       Name
Scenario                                 Scenario                 Worst case
Latest year end                          YE                       12/31/2009
Valuation date                           Val_Date                  8/1/2010
End of detailed forecast period          End_DF                   12/31/2014
Continuing value year                    CVY_Date                 12/31/2025
Currency                                 Currency                     DK
Units                                    Units                      1,000

Share price for comparison with valuation
High                                      High                     1,989.00
Low                                       Low                        78.00

Operations

P&L
Operating Revenue: % Growth                                                           20.8%
Operating revenues                       Rev          Positive                      447,038

Other Revenue: % Growth                                                                64.2%
Other revenues                           OOR          Positive                        15,251

COGS: % Revenue                                                                         6.4%
Cost of Goods Sold                       COGS         Negative                       (28,613)

SGA: % Revenue                                                                        72.1%
SGA                                      SGA          Negative                     (322,461)

Other Op Exp: % Revenue                                                                  0.5%
Other Operating Expense                  OOE          Negative                         (2,432)

Working capital
Op Cash: % Revenue                                                                      5.0%
Operating cash                           OpCash       Positive                        22,561

Inventories: % Revenue                                                                  3.2%
Inventories                              Inv          Positive                        14,446

Acc Rec: % Revenues                                                                   28.4%
Accounts receivable                 TradDebt         Positive                       127,151
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McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                    Page 13
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Name - Worst case
DK t.kr                               Range name                  Other inputs             2005
                                                                                 -----------------

Acc. Pay: % Revenues                                                                   34.3%
Accounts payable                      TradCred         Positive                      153,318

OCA: % Revenues                                                                           1.5%
Other current assets                  OCA              Positive                          6,914

OCL: % Revenues                                                                         10.1%
Other current liabilities             OCL              Positive                        45,289

Total operating working capital       WC_Bal                                          (27,535)
WC increase/(decrease)                WC_Delta                                        (64,021)
WC: % Revenues                                                                          -6.2%

Balance Sheet Items

Property Plant & Equip
PPE Net                               PPE_Net          Positive                      455,102

Capital expenditure option            Enter 1,2 or 3                    1
1: Net PPE as % revenues                                                               101.8%
2: % Operating revenues                                                                  0.0%
3: Cash amount DK                                                                           0
Capital expenditure                   Capex            Positive                             0

Depreciation: % Net PPE b/f                                                              5.0%
Depreciation                          Depn             Negative                       (21,314)

Balancing item                                                                         -12.3%
Other historical fixed asset movts    FA_Hist                                          52,322

Goodwill
 Opening                                                                               79,658
 Additions/(disposals)                GW_Cash                                             362
 Amortisation                         GW_Amort         Negative                             0
 Closing                              GW_Bal           Positive                        80,020
 Initial goodwill written off         GW_Init          Positive          2,465

Intangibles
 Opening                                                                               47,329
 Additions/(disposals)                Intang_Cash                                      13,199
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McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                     Page 14
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Name - Worst case
DK t.kr                               Range name                 Other inputs             2005
                                                                                -----------------
 Amortisation                         Intang_Amort    Negative                                0
 Closing                              Intang_Bal      Positive                         60,528
 Initial intangibles written off      Intang_Init     Positive         60,664

Other operating assets
 Opening                                                                                      0
 Additions/(disposals)                OOA_Cash                                                0
 Closing                              OOA_Bal         Positive                                0




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McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                    Page 15
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Name - Worst case
DK t.kr                               Range name                 Other inputs             2005
                                                                                -----------------

Other operating liabilities
 Opening                                                                              10,270
 Additions/(disposals)                OOL_Cash                                        (4,310)
 Closing                              OOL_Bal         Positive                         5,960

Non-operating assets
 Opening                                                                                      0
 Additions/(disposals)                NOA_Cash                                                0
 Closing                              NOA_Bal         Positive                                0

Retirement Related Assets
 Opening                                                                                      0
 Increase/(decrease)                  RetRelA_Cash                                            0
 Closing balance                      RetRelA_Bal     Positive                                0

Retirement Related Liabilities
 Increase/(decrease)                  RetRel_Cash                                           0
 Closing balance                      RetRel_Bal      Positive                              0
 Memo: % Revenues                                                                        0.0%
 Non-operating component              RetRel_Nonop                                          0

Investments
 Opening                                                                            339,736
 Additions/(disposals)                Inv_Cash                                       17,553
 Closing                              Inv_Bal         Positive                      357,289

Off-Balance Sheet Items

Operating leases
 Implied principal                    OpLease_Bal  Positive                                 0
 Investment in operating leases       OpLease_Cash                                          0
 Interest rate                                                                           0.0%
 Implied interest                     OpLease_Int     Positive                              0

Adjustments to operating value

Excess Marketable Securities          EMS                               9,000
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McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                    Page 16
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Name - Worst case
DK t.kr                               Range name                  Other inputs             2005
                                                                                 -----------------
Financial Investments                 FFA                              460,154
Excess pension assets                 Pen_Excess                             0
Debt                                  MV_Debt                        2,131,316
Capitalized Operating Leases          MV_OpLease                             0
Retirement Related Liability          MV_RetRel                              0
Preferred Stock                       MV_Prefs                               0
Minority Interest                     MV_Min                                 0
Restructuring Provision               MV_Restr                               0
Long-term operating Provision         MV_LTOp                                0
Value of Options Outstanding          Options                                0
Value of Future Stock Options         Future_Options                         0

Provisions & Non-Op. P&L

Non-operating P&L items

Non-operating income % growth                                                            -16%
Non-operating income/(expense)        NOI                                             (15,281)

Special (pretax) income/(expense)     SpecItem                                            (488)

Extraordinary items/(expense)         ExtraordItem                                       2,169

Income smoothing Provision
 Increase/(decrease)                  Prov_Cash        Negative                              0
 Closing balance                      Prov_Bal         Positive                              0
 Memo: % Revenues                                                                         0.0%

On-going operating Provisions
 Increase/(decrease)                  OOP_Cash                                                 0
 Closing balance                      OOP_Bal          Positive                                0

Restructuring Provisions
 Opening                                                                                       0
 P&L additions                        Restr_Prof       Positive                                0
 Cash payments                        Restr_Cash       Negative                                0
 Closing                              Restr_Bal        Positive                                0

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McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                     Page 17
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Name - Worst case
DK t.kr                               Range name                 Other inputs             2005
                                                                                -----------------
Long-term operating Provisions
 Opening                                                                                    0
 Implied Interest                     LOP_Int                                               0
 Interest Rate                        LOP_IntR                                           0.0%
 Expense                                                                                    0
 Closing                              LOP_Bal         Positive                              0
 Increase/(decrease)                  LOP_Cash                                              0

Minority interests
 Opening                                                                              16,128
 P&L attributed (+ve)                 Min_Prof        Positive                         3,942
 Cash payments                        Min_Cash        Negative                           225
 Closing                              Min_Bal         Positive                        20,295




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McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                    Page 18
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Name - Worst case
DK t.kr                                    Range name                  Other inputs             2005
                                                                                      -----------------

Debt Finance & WACC

Interest rates
 Excess cash
 Balancing debt
 Short term debt
 Long term debt - 1
 Long term debt - 2

Historical balances
 Excess cash                               Cash             Positive                        44,515
 Balancing debt                            OD               Positive                             0

 Short term debt                           STD_Bal          Positive                       61,682
 Long term debt - 1                                                                       298,103
 Long term debt - 2                        Use this if you want to subdivide LTD
 Total                                     LTD_Bal           Positive                     298,103

Scheduled additions/(repayments)
 Short term debt                           STD_Cash                                        (88,784)
 Long term debt - 1
 Long term debt - 2
 Total                                     LTD_Cash                                         46,503

Interest calculations
 Excess cash                               Int_Inc          Positive                          7,383
 Balancing debt
 Short term debt
 Long term debt - 1
 Long term debt - 2
 Total interest expense                    Int_Exp          Negative                       (24,029)

 Total interest expense (excl OD)          Int_Exp_Excl_ODNegative

WACC                                       WACC                                                6.9%
Note: to be calculated in separate model

Equity Finance

Preferred stock
                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                          Page 19
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Name - Worst case
DK t.kr                                Range name                Other inputs             2005
                                                                                -----------------
 Opening                                                                                      0
 New issues/redemption                 Prefs_Cash                                             0
 Closing                               Prefs_Bal      Positive                                0
 Dividend: Coupon % average balance                                                          NA
 Dividends                             Prefs_Div      Negative                                0
 Par value per share                                                        0
 No. preferred shares (thousands)      Prefs_No                                               0

Common equity
 Opening                               Equity_Bal _BF Positive                      476,046
 Net earnings for year                                                               39,926
 Dividends: % earnings                                                                55.7%
 Dividends                             Div_Com        Negative                      (22,219)
 Translation effects                   Translation                                        0
 New issues/(buy-backs)                Equity_Cash                                        0
 Goodwill write off                    GW_writeoff    Negative                            0
 Other adjustments                     Equity_Adj                                    11,249
 Closing                               Equity_Bal     Positive                      505,002

Number of common shares
Current no. shares (thousands)
 Average                               Shares_Av      Positive                           2,469
 Movement in year                                                                        2,469
 Year end                              Shares_YE      Positive                           2,469
Fully diluted no. shares (thousands)
 Additional shares                                  Positive                                 0
 Average                               Shares_FD_Av Positive                             2,469
 Year end                              Shares_FD_YE Positive                             2,469

Dividends payable (B/S)
 Opening                                                                                   0
 Dividends declared                                                                   22,219
 Dividends paid                        Div_Cash       Negative                             0
 Closing                               Div_Bal        Negative                        22,219




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                    Page 20
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Name - Worst case
DK t.kr                                 Range name                   Other inputs             2005
                                                                                    -----------------

Tax

Current tax
Earnings before tax                                                                       55,054
Tax charge                              Tax_Charge       Negative                        (13,355)

Tax creditor b/f                                                                          11,651
Current tax payable                                                                        4,426
Tax paid                                Tax_Paid       Negative                          (11,064)
Tax creditor c/f                        Tax_Cred_Bal Positive                              5,013
Tax creditor delta                      Tax_Cred_Delta                                    (6,638)

Tax rates
 Effective                                                                                  24.3%
 Marginal                               TaxRateMarg                                         28.0%

Deferred tax
Asset Increase/(decrease)               DefTaxA_Delta                                         446
Deferred tax asset                      DefTaxA_Bal      Positive                           2,994

Liability Increase/(decrease)           DefTax_Delta                                       9,375
Deferred tax liability                  DefTax_Bal       Positive                         54,639

Phase 2 & CV drivers

Phase 2 Inputs

Revenue growth
Revenue                                 Rev_P2

Adjusted EBITA margin
Adjusted EBITA                          Adj_EBITA_P2

Cash tax rate                           CashTax_P2
NOPLAT                                  NOPLAT_P2

Closing Net PPE as % Revenues
Net PPE

Other Invested Capital as % Revenues
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McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                        Page 21
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Name - Worst case
DK t.kr                               Range name                 Other inputs                2005
                                                                                   -----------------
Other Invested Capital
Invested Capital (pre-Goodwill)       Inv_CapP_P2

Cumulative Goodwill
Invested Capital                      Inv_Cap_P2
Net Investment                        Net_Inv_P2

Continuing value inputs

Choose ROIC option                    Enter 1,2 or 3                    3

 1: Input value
 2: Last year of phase 2                                                    6.8%
 3: WACC                                                                    6.5%

ROIC used                             ROIC                                  6.5%

Growth in NOPLAT                      g                                     2.0%


Constants & dates

Days in year                          DIY                                   365
Months in year                        MIY                                    12
One                                   One                                     1
Units - label                         Unit_label                 t.kr




                                      Dates                                                  2005
                                      Year                                                     (4)
                                      CVY
                                                                                                  0
                                      FY
Mid year adjustment factor (months)   MYAF                                   (7)




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                       Page 22
= Link to historical data

                                                                             Detailed Forecast
          2006              2007              2008              2009                                          2010
----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- --------------------------------------------




      12.7%             97.3%             60.7%              9.7%                                      -25.45%
    503,976           994,476         1,597,904         1,752,192                                    1,306,343

      129.9%             11.1%           -100.0%                NA                                      -100.0%
      35,065            38,951                 0           (38,000)                                           0

        6.5%              5.1%            33.7%             25.7%                                         9.50%
     (32,728)          (50,465)        (537,843)         (449,880)                                     (124,103)

      73.2%             73.2%             50.1%             56.9%                                        74.00%
   (368,949)         (727,538)         (799,781)         (996,558)                                     (966,694)

         0.6%              0.2%              0.2%             0.2%                                         0.27%
       (3,133)           (1,778)           (3,571)          (3,457)                                       (3,527)



       10.6%            10.2%              7.7%              9.9%                                        13.50%
      53,651          101,133           122,554           172,607                                       176,356

        3.4%            31.4%             19.8%              6.1%                                         5.10%
      17,187          312,357           315,647           106,147                                        66,623

     21.4%      15.3%        18.2%         5.5%                                                           7.40%
  107,817     152,324     291,604        96,914                                                          96,669
                      05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                        Page 23
= Link to historical data

                                                                             Detailed Forecast
          2006              2007              2008              2009                                          2010
----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- --------------------------------------------

      27.1%             30.6%             16.8%              9.7%                                         13.0%
    136,424           304,141           268,588           170,328                                       169,825

         1.1%             1.3%              1.0%              0.5%                                         0.69%
        5,315           13,206            15,601             9,086                                         9,014

       12.3%            10.3%               3.1%              2.5%                                         3.3%
      61,977          102,151             49,901            43,231                                       43,109

     (14,431)         172,728           426,917           171,195                                       135,729
      13,104          187,159           254,189          (255,722)                                      (35,466)
       -2.9%            17.4%             26.7%              9.8%                                         10.4%




    477,222           972,556         1,560,010         1,638,537                                    1,639,460


        94.7%             97.8%             97.6%            93.5%                                       125.5%
         0.0%              0.0%              0.0%             0.0%
            0                 0                 0                0
            0                 0                 0                0                                      115,621

        5.3%             11.1%              6.7%              5.3%                                         7.0%
     (24,342)          (52,797)          (64,962)          (83,328)                                    (114,698)

      -10.2%          -114.9%            -67.1%            -10.4%
      46,462          548,131           652,416           161,855


      80,020           82,518           449,463           452,367                                       288,534
       2,498          366,945             2,904          (163,833)                                            0
           0                0                 0                 0                                             0
      82,518          449,463           452,367           288,534                                       288,534




      60,528          105,567           150,717           197,887                                       128,148
      45,039           70,851            52,152           (64,361)                                            0
                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                        Page 24
= Link to historical data

                                                                             Detailed Forecast
          2006              2007              2008              2009                                          2010
----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- --------------------------------------------
              0         (25,701)           (4,982)           (5,378)                                              0
     105,567           150,717           197,887           128,148                                       128,148




              0                 0                0                 0                                             0
              0                 0                0                 0                                             0
              0                 0                0                 0                                             0




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                        Page 25
= Link to historical data

                                                                             Detailed Forecast
          2006              2007              2008              2009                                          2010
----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- --------------------------------------------


       5,960            17,385           31,036           103,785                                       130,606
      11,425            13,651           72,749            26,821                                             0
      17,385            31,036          103,785           130,606                                       130,606


              0              0            18,943            30,795                                       31,318
              0         18,943            11,852               523                                            0
              0         18,943            30,795            31,318                                       31,318


              0                 0                0                 0                                             0
              0                 0                0                 0                                             0
              0                 0                0                 0                                             0


            0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
            0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
         0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%                                          0.0%
            0                 0                 0                 0                                           -


    357,289           392,837                    0              0                                       428,836
     35,548          (392,837)                   0        428,836                                             0
    392,837                 0                    0        428,836                                       428,836




            0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
            0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
         0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%                                          0.0%
            0                 0                 0                 0                                             0




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                        Page 26
= Link to historical data

                                                                             Detailed Forecast
          2006              2007              2008              2009                                          2010
----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- --------------------------------------------




        120%              -22%              -30%              368%                                       -73.0%
     (33,664)          (26,254)          (18,453)          (86,412)                                     (23,331)

              0                 0                0       (242,955)                                               0

      25,246              4,394               218               217                                          217


            0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
            0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
         0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%                                          0.0%


              0                 0                0                 0                                             0
              0                 0                0                 0                                             0


              0                 0                0                 0                                             0
              0                 0                0                 0                                             0
              0                 0                0                 0                                             0
              0                 0                0                 0                                             0

                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                        Page 27
= Link to historical data

                                                                             Detailed Forecast
          2006              2007              2008              2009                                          2010
----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- --------------------------------------------

            0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
            0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
         0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%                                          0.0%
            0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
            0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
            0                 0                 0                 0                                             0


      20,295            24,119            34,408                193                                              0
       7,391             5,271             3,209               (193)                                             0
      (3,567)            5,018           (37,424)                 0                                              0
      24,119            34,408               193                  0                                              0




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                        Page 28
= Link to historical data

                                                                             Detailed Forecast
          2006              2007              2008              2009                                          2010
----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- --------------------------------------------




                                                                                                           2.37%

                                                                                                           3.37%
                                                                                                           4.55%




        7,950         207,096           207,177              9,000                                       66,789
            0               0                 0                  0                                            0

    376,332           922,342           976,252         1,114,980                                       793,980
    137,618           223,296         1,114,301         1,016,336                                       916,336
                                                                                                              0
    137,618           223,296         1,114,301         1,016,336                                       916,336


    314,650           546,010             53,910          138,728                                      (321,000)
                                                                                                       (100,000)

   (160,485)            85,678          891,005            (97,965)                                    (100,000)


        6,213             5,455             3,525           15,187                                          213
                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                        (32,166)
                                                                                                        (43,968)
                                                                                                              0
     (24,753)          (46,413)        (125,206)         (108,251)                                      (76,134)

                                                                                                        (76,134)

         8.0%              8.7%              5.9%              4.5%                                        6.49%




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                        Page 29
= Link to historical data

                                                                             Detailed Forecast
          2006              2007              2008              2009                                          2010
----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- --------------------------------------------
              0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
              0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
              0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
             NA                NA                NA                NA                                         0.0%
              0                 0                 0                 0                                             0

              0                 0                0                 0                                             0


    505,002           426,416           630,150           551,023                                       318,455
     59,134            86,153            30,635          (238,604)                                       (1,231)
       0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%                                          0.0%
          0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
          0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
          0                 0                 0                 0                                       468,000
          0                 0                 0                 0                                             0
   (137,720)          117,581          (109,762)            6,036                                       (22,523)
    426,416           630,150           551,023           318,455                                       762,701




         2,469             2,469             2,469            2,469                                         6,172
             0                 0                 0                0                                         7,406
         2,469             2,469             2,469            2,469                                         9,875

             0                 0                 0                0                                             0
         2,469             2,469             2,469            2,469                                         6,172
         2,469             2,469             2,469            2,469                                         9,875


      22,219                    0                0                 0                                             0
           0                    0                0                 0                                             0
     (22,219)                   0                0                 0                                             0
           0                    0                0                 0                                             0




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                        Page 30
= Link to historical data

                                                                             Detailed Forecast
          2006              2007              2008              2009                                          2010
----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- --------------------------------------------




      57,685          107,937             46,631         (246,840)                                        (1,930)
     (16,406)         (20,907)           (13,005)           7,826                                            483

        5,013              131             2,538             7,038                                         5,842
       (1,611)         (37,164)           18,177             5,386                                          (483)
       (3,271)          39,571           (13,677)           (6,582)                                          483
          131            2,538             7,038             5,842                                         5,842
       (4,882)           2,407             4,500            (1,196)                                            0


        28.4%             19.4%             27.9%             3.2%                                         25.0%
        28.0%             25.0%             25.0%            25.0%                                         25.0%


        2,591              (997)             (830)            (695)                                            0
        5,585             4,588             3,758            3,063                                         3,063

      20,608           57,074            (6,002)          (13,907)                                            0
      75,247          132,321           126,319           112,412                                       112,412




                                                                                                     1,306,343

                                                                                                           7.4%
                                                                                                         97,322

                                                                                                          25.0%
                                                                                                         72,991

                                                                                                        125.5%
                                                                                                     1,639,460

                                                                                                            -0.1%
                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                        Page 31
= Link to historical data

                                                                             Detailed Forecast
          2006              2007              2008              2009                                          2010
----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- --------------------------------------------
                                                                                                             (719)
                                                                                                      1,638,741

                                                                                                       515,872
                                                                                                     2,154,613




          2006             2007              2008              2009                                          2010
            (3)              (2)               (1)               0                                             1
                                                                                                               0
               0                 0                 0                 0




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                        Page 32
= Calculation

                                                                                    Key driver forecast
                  2011              2012              2013              2014              2015             2016
------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------




             0.37%              2.30%             1.91%             1.95%
         1,311,181          1,341,278         1,366,930         1,393,603

                 0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%
                    0                 0                 0                 0

               7.30%             6.50%             6.50%             6.50%
             (95,716)          (87,183)          (88,850)          (90,584)

             74.00%            74.00%      74.00%      74.00%
           (970,274)         (992,546) (1,011,528) (1,031,266)

               0.27%              0.26%             0.26%             0.25%
              (3,540)            (3,487)           (3,554)           (3,484)



             10.00%            10.00%            10.00%            10.00%
            131,118           134,128           136,693           139,360

               4.20%             3.50%             3.50%             3.50%
              55,070            46,945            47,843            48,776

          7.40%      7.20%        7.10%         6.90%
         97,027     96,572      97,052        96,159
                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                      Page 33
= Calculation

                                                                                    Key driver forecast
                  2011              2012              2013              2014              2015             2016
------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------

              13.0%             12.7%             12.4%             12.2%
            170,454           170,342           169,499           170,020

               0.69%             0.67%              0.66%             0.65%
               9,047             8,987              9,022             9,058

                3.3%              3.2%              3.2%              3.1%
              43,269            42,921            43,742            43,202

              78,540            73,368            77,368            80,132
             (57,189)           (5,172)            4,000             2,764
                6.0%              5.5%              5.7%              5.8%




         1,638,977          1,636,359         1,640,316         1,442,379


              125.0%            122.0%            120.0%            103.5%


            163,462           112,111           118,503           117,004

              10.0%              7.0%              7.0%             19.2%
           (163,946)         (114,728)         (114,545)         (314,941)




            288,534           238,534           238,534           238,534
            (50,000)                0                 0                 0
                  0                 0                 0                 0
            238,534           238,534           238,534           238,534




            128,148           128,148           128,148           128,148
                  0                 0                 0                 0
                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                      Page 34
= Calculation

                                                                                    Key driver forecast
                  2011              2012              2013              2014              2015             2016
------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------
                      0                  0                 0                 0
             128,148           128,148           128,148           128,148




                     0                 0                  0                 0
                     0                 0                  0                 0
                     0                 0                  0                 0




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                      Page 35
= Calculation

                                                                                    Key driver forecast
                  2011              2012              2013              2014              2015             2016
------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------


            130,606           130,606           130,606           130,606
                  0                 0                 0                 0
            130,606           130,606           130,606           130,606


              31,318            31,318            31,318            31,318
                   0                 0                 0                 0
              31,318            31,318            31,318            31,318


                     0                 0                  0                 0
                     0                 0                  0                 0
                     0                 0                  0                 0


                    0                 0                 0                 0
                    0                 0                 0                 0
                 0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%
                  -                 -                 -                 -


            428,836           428,836           428,836           428,836
                  0                 0                 0                 0
            428,836           428,836           428,836           428,836




                    0                 0                 0                 0
                    0                 0                 0                 0
                 0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%
                    0                 0                 0                 0




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                      Page 36
= Calculation

                                                                                    Key driver forecast
                  2011              2012              2013              2014              2015             2016
------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------




                0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%
             (23,331)          (23,331)          (23,331)          (23,331)

                     0                 0                  0                 0

                  217               217               217               217


                    0                 0                 0                 0
                    0                 0                 0                 0
                 0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%


                     0                 0                  0                 0
                     0                 0                  0                 0


                     0                 0                  0                 0
                     0                 0                  0                 0
                     0                 0                  0                 0
                     0                 0                  0                 0

                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                      Page 37
= Calculation

                                                                                    Key driver forecast
                  2011              2012              2013              2014              2015             2016
------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------

                    0                 0                 0                 0
                    0                 0                 0                 0
                 0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%
                    0                 0                 0                 0
                    0                 0                 0                 0
                    0                 0                 0                 0


                     0                 0                  0                 0
                     0                 0                  0                 0
                     0                 0                  0                 0
                     0                 0                  0                 0




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                      Page 38
= Calculation

                                                                                    Key driver forecast
                  2011              2012              2013              2014              2015             2016
------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------




               2.37%             2.37%              2.37%             2.37%

               4.37%             4.37%              4.37%             4.37%
               5.55%             4.55%              4.55%             4.55%




            129,958           150,460           159,419           225,324
                  0                 0                 0                 0

            793,980           793,980           793,980           793,980
            916,336           916,336           916,336           916,336
                  0                 0                 0                 0
            916,336           916,336           916,336           916,336


                     0                 0                  0                 0
                     0                 0                  0                 0

                     0                 0                  0                 0


               1,583             3,080             3,566             3,778
                   0                 0                 0                 0
             (34,697)          (34,697)          (34,697)          (34,697)
             (50,857)          (41,693)          (41,693)          (41,693)
                   0                 0                 0                 0
             (85,554)          (76,390)          (76,390)          (76,390)

             (85,554)          (76,390)          (76,390)          (76,390)

               6.49%             6.49%              6.49%             6.49%             6.49%            6.49%




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                      Page 39
= Calculation

                                                                                    Key driver forecast
                  2011              2012              2013              2014              2015             2016
------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------
                      0                  0                 0                 0
                      0                  0                 0                 0
                      0                  0                 0                 0
                  0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%
                      0                  0                 0                 0

                     0                 0                  0                 0


            762,701           718,197           730,910           747,826
            (21,981)           35,236            39,440          (106,745)
               0.0%              0.0%              0.0%              0.0%
                  0                 0                 0                 0
                  0                 0                 0                 0
                  0                 0                 0                 0
                  0                 0                 0                 0
            (22,523)          (22,523)          (22,523)          (22,523)
            718,197           730,910           747,826           618,559




                9,875             9,875              9,875             9,875
                    0                 0                  0                 0
                9,875             9,875              9,875             9,875

                    0                 0                  0                 0
                9,875             9,875              9,875             9,875
                9,875             9,875              9,875             9,875


                     0                 0                  0                 0
                     0                 0                  0                 0
                     0                 0                  0                 0
                     0                 0                  0                 0




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                      Page 40
= Calculation

                                                                                    Key driver forecast
                  2011              2012              2013              2014              2015             2016
------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------




             (29,597)           46,692            52,297         (142,615)
               7,399           (11,673)          (13,074)          35,654

               5,842             5,842             5,842             5,842
              (7,399)           11,673            13,074           (35,654)
               7,399           (11,673)          (13,074)           35,654
               5,842             5,842             5,842             5,842
                   0                 0                 0                 0


               25.0%             25.0%              25.0%             25.0%
               25.0%             25.0%              25.0%             25.0%


                   0                 0                  0                 0
               3,063             3,063              3,063             3,063

                  0                 0                 0                 0
            112,412           112,412           112,412           112,412




              0.4%               2.3%              1.9%              2.0%              2.3%      2.3%
         1,311,181          1,341,278         1,366,930         1,393,603         1,425,862 1,458,954

                5.9%            10.7%             10.9%              -3.3%             10.8%            10.8%
              77,705          143,333           148,452            (46,672)          153,993          157,567

               25.0%            25.0%             25.0%              25.0%             25.0%            25.0%
              58,279          107,500           111,339            (35,004)          115,495          118,175

            125.0%             122.0%            120.0%            103.5%           102.00%   100.00%
         1,638,977          1,636,359         1,640,316         1,442,379         1,454,380 1,458,954

           -4.4%      -4.7%       -4.3%         -4.0%        -3.5%                                        -3.5%
                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                      Page 41
= Calculation

                                                                                    Key driver forecast
                  2011              2012              2013              2014              2015             2016
------------------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------- ----------------
             (57,908)           (63,080)          (59,080)          (56,316)          (49,905)         (51,063)
          1,581,068          1,573,279         1,581,237         1,386,063         1,404,474 1,407,891

           465,872            465,872           465,872           465,872           515,872          515,872
         2,046,940          2,039,150         2,047,108         1,851,935         1,920,346        1,923,762
                                                                                     68,411            3,416




                 2011              2012              2013               2014              2015             2016
                   2                 3                 4                  5                 6                7
                   0                 0                 0                  0                 0                0




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                      Page 42
         = Input on this sheet

r forecast
                       2017             2018             2019             2020             2021             2022             2023
         --------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------




                             05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
        McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                     Page 43
         = Input on this sheet

r forecast
                       2017             2018             2019             2020             2021             2022             2023
         --------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------




                             05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
        McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                     Page 44
         = Input on this sheet

r forecast
                       2017             2018             2019             2020             2021             2022             2023
         --------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------




                             05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
        McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                     Page 45
         = Input on this sheet

r forecast
                       2017             2018             2019             2020             2021             2022             2023
         --------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------




                             05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
        McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                     Page 46
         = Input on this sheet

r forecast
                       2017             2018             2019             2020             2021             2022             2023
         --------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------




                             05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
        McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                     Page 47
         = Input on this sheet

r forecast
                       2017             2018             2019             2020             2021             2022             2023
         --------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------




                             05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
        McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                     Page 48
         = Input on this sheet

r forecast
                       2017             2018             2019             2020             2021             2022             2023
         --------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------




                     6.49%            6.49%            6.49%            6.49%            6.49%            6.49%            6.49%




                             05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
        McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                     Page 49
         = Input on this sheet

r forecast
                       2017             2018             2019             2020             2021             2022             2023
         --------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------




                             05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
        McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                     Page 50
         = Input on this sheet

r forecast
                       2017             2018             2019             2020             2021             2022             2023
         --------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------




                    2.3%      2.0%      2.0%      2.0%      2.0%      2.0%      2.0%
               1,492,697 1,523,016 1,553,961 1,585,040 1,616,741 1,649,076 1,682,058

                   10.8%            10.8%            10.8%             10.8%            10.8%            10.8%            10.8%
                 161,211          164,486          167,828           171,184          174,608          178,100          181,662

                   25.0%            25.0%            25.0%             25.0%            25.0%            25.0%            25.0%
                 120,908          123,364          125,871           128,388          130,956          133,575          136,247

                  98.50%    96.50%    95.00%    95.00%    95.00%    95.00%    95.00%
               1,470,306 1,469,711 1,476,263 1,505,788 1,535,904 1,566,622 1,597,955

                 -3.5%     -3.5%        -3.5%       -3.5%       -3.5%                                      -3.5%            -3.5%
                              05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
        McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                     Page 51
         = Input on this sheet

r forecast
                       2017             2018             2019             2020             2021             2022             2023
         --------------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
                   (52,244)         (53,306)         (54,389)         (55,476)         (56,586)         (57,718)         (58,872)
               1,418,062 1,416,405 1,421,874 1,450,312 1,479,318 1,508,905 1,539,083

                 515,872          515,872   515,872                 515,872          515,872          515,872          515,872
               1,933,933        1,932,277 1,937,746               1,966,184        1,995,190        2,024,776        2,054,954
                  10,171           (1,657)    5,469                  28,437           29,006           29,586           30,178




                       2017             2018             2019             2020             2021             2022             2023
                         8                9               10               11               12               13               14
                         0                0                0                0                0                0                0




                             05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
        McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                                     Page 52
                    CV Yr
         2024             2025
---------------- ----------------




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 53
                    CV Yr
         2024             2025
---------------- ----------------




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 54
                    CV Yr
         2024             2025
---------------- ----------------




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 55
                    CV Yr
         2024             2025
---------------- ----------------




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 56
                    CV Yr
         2024             2025
---------------- ----------------




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 57
                    CV Yr
         2024             2025
---------------- ----------------




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 58
                    CV Yr
         2024             2025
---------------- ----------------




       6.49%            6.49%




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 59
                    CV Yr
         2024             2025
---------------- ----------------




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 60
                    CV Yr
         2024             2025
---------------- ----------------




      2.0%      2.0%
 1,715,699 1,750,013

      10.8%            10.8%
    185,295          189,001

      25.0%            25.0%
    138,972          141,751

    95.00%    95.00%
 1,629,914 1,662,512

     -3.5%      -3.5%
                      05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                   Page 61
                    CV Yr
         2024             2025
---------------- ----------------
     (60,049)         (61,250)
  1,569,864 1,601,262

   515,872          515,872
 2,085,736        2,117,133
    30,782           31,397




         2024             2025
          15               16
           0                1




                     05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx
McKinsey & Company Confidential                                  Page 62
1/11/2011 5:40
Error check = OK
Name - Worst case                                             OK                                                                                        Detailed Forecast
DK t.kr                                                                               2005          2006          2007         2008         2009         2010         2011         2012         2013         2014

Income Statement
Revenues                                                                          447,038      503,976        994,476       #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######
Other Operating Revenues                                                           15,251        35,065        38,951             0      (38,000)           0             0           0            0            0
Cost of Goods Sold                                                                (28,613)      (32,728)       (50,465)    (537,843)    (449,880)    (124,103)     (95,716)     (87,183)     (88,850)     (90,584)
Selling, Gen & Admin Expenses                                                    (322,461)     (368,949)     (727,538)     (799,781)    (996,558)    (966,694)    (970,274)    (992,546)     #######      #######
Depreciation Expense                                                              (21,314)      (24,342)       (52,797)     (64,962)     (83,328)    (114,698)    (163,946)    (114,728)    (114,545)    (314,941)
Other Oper Expense                                                                  (2,432)      (3,133)        (1,778)      (3,571)      (3,457)      (3,527)       (3,540)     (3,487)      (3,554)       (3,484)
Reported EBITA                                                                     87,469      109,889        200,849      191,747      180,969       97,322        77,705     143,333      148,452       (46,672)

Amortization of Goodwill                                                                 0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Intangibles Amort. (Excl. Goodwill)                                                     0            0         (25,701)      (4,982)      (5,378)          0             0           0            0             0
Reported EBIT                                                                      87,469      109,889        175,149      186,765      175,591       97,322        77,705     143,333      148,452       (46,672)

Non-Oper Income                                                                   (15,281)      (33,664)       (26,254)     (18,453)     (86,412)     (23,331)     (23,331)     (23,331)     (23,331)     (23,331)
Interest Income                                                                     7,383         6,213          5,455        3,525      15,187           213        1,583        3,080        3,566        3,778
Interest Expense                                                                  (24,029)      (24,753)       (46,413)    (125,206)    (108,251)     (76,134)     (85,554)     (76,390)     (76,390)     (76,390)
Restructuring Charges                                                                    0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Special Items                                                                        (488)            0             0            0      (242,955)           0            0           0            0             0
Earnings Before Taxes                                                              55,054        57,685       107,937       46,631      (246,840)      (1,930)     (29,597)     46,692       52,297      (142,615)

Income Taxes                                                                      (13,355)      (16,406)       (20,907)     (13,005)       7,826          483        7,399      (11,673)     (13,074)     35,654
Minority Interest                                                                   (3,942)       (7,391)       (5,271)      (3,209)         193            0            0           0            0             0
Income Before Extraordinary Items                                                  37,757        33,888        81,759       30,417      (238,821)      (1,448)     (22,198)     35,019       39,223      (106,962)

Extraordinary Items (After Tax)                                                     2,169        25,246         4,394          218           217          217          217         217          217           217
Net Income                                                                         39,926        59,134        86,153       30,635      (238,604)      (1,231)     (21,981)     35,236       39,440      (106,745)

Preference dividends                                                                    0             0             0            0             0            0            0           0            0             0
Earnings for common shareholders                                                   39,926        59,134        86,153       30,635      (238,604)      (1,231)     (21,981)     35,236       39,440      (106,745)

Common dividends                                                                  (22,219)            0             0            0             0            0            0           0            0             0
Retained profit                                                                    17,707        59,134        86,153       30,635      (238,604)      (1,231)     (21,981)     35,236       39,440      (106,745)

Earnings per share (DK)                                                           #######       #######     34,896.58       #######      #######      (199.42)    (2,225.96)   3,568.28     3,993.96      #######
Earnings per share - fully diluted (DK)                                           #######       #######     34,896.58       #######      #######      (199.42)    (2,225.96)   3,568.28     3,993.96      #######

Statement of changes in equity
Opening balance                                                                   476,046      505,002        426,416      630,150      551,023      318,455       762,701     718,197      730,910      747,826
Retained profit                                                                    17,707        59,134        86,153       30,635      (238,604)      (1,231)     (21,981)     35,236       39,440      (106,745)
Foreign Exchange Rate Changes                                                            0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Issue of New Shares                                                                      0             0               0          0            0     468,000              0           0            0            0
Goodwill Written Off                                                                     0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Other Adjustments to Equity                                                        11,249      (137,720)      117,581      (109,762)      6,036       (22,523)      (22,523)    (22,523)     (22,523)     (22,523)
Closing balance                                                                   505,002       426,416       630,150       551,023     318,455      762,701       718,197     730,910      747,826      618,559

Check: Changes in Equity                                      OK                         0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0


Balance Sheet
Operating Cash                                                                     22,561        53,651       101,133      122,554      172,607      176,356       131,118     134,128      136,693      139,360
Excess Marketable Securities                                                       44,515         7,950       207,096      207,177         9,000      66,789       129,958     150,460      159,419      225,324
Accounts Receivable                                                               127,151      107,817        152,324      291,604       96,914       96,669        97,027      96,572       97,052       96,159
Inventories                                                                        14,446        17,187       312,357      315,647      106,147       66,623        55,070      46,945       47,843       48,776
Other Current Assets                                                                6,914        5,315         13,206       15,601        9,086        9,014         9,047       8,987        9,022        9,058
Total Current Assets                                                              215,587      191,920        786,116      952,583      393,754      415,452       422,220     437,091      450,028      518,678

Net Property Plant and Equipment                                                  455,102      477,222        972,556       #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######

Goodwill                                                                           80,020        82,518       449,463      452,367      288,534      288,534       238,534     238,534      238,534      238,534
Other Intangible Assets                                                            60,528      105,567        150,717      197,887      128,148      128,148       128,148     128,148      128,148      128,148
Other Operating Assets                                                                   0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Investments                                                                       357,289      392,837                 0          0     428,836      428,836       428,836     428,836      428,836      428,836
Deferred tax asset                                                                  2,994         5,585          4,588        3,758        3,063        3,063        3,063        3,063        3,063        3,063
Other Non-operating Assets                                                               0             0       18,943       30,795       31,318       31,318        31,318      31,318       31,318       31,318
Retirement Related Assets                                                              0             0              0            0            0            0            0            0            0            0
Total Assets                                                                      #######       #######     2,382,383       #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######



Short term debt                                                                    61,682      376,332        922,342      976,252       #######     793,980       793,980     793,980      793,980      793,980
Accounts Payable                                                                  153,318      136,424        304,141      268,588      170,328      169,825       170,454     170,342      169,499      170,020
Tax payable                                                                         5,013           131          2,538        7,038        5,842        5,842        5,842        5,842        5,842        5,842
Dividends payable                                                                  22,219              0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Other Current Liabilities                                                          45,289        61,977       102,151       49,901       43,231       43,109        43,269      42,921       43,742       43,202
Total Current Liabilities                                                         287,521      574,864      1,331,172       #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######

Balancing Debt                                                                           0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Long Term Debt                                                                    298,103      137,618        223,296       #######      #######     916,336       916,336     916,336      916,336      916,336
Deferred Income Taxes                                                              54,639        75,247       132,321      126,319      112,412      112,412       112,412     112,412      112,412      112,412
Other Operating Liabilities                                                         5,960        17,385        31,036      103,785      130,606      130,606       130,606     130,606      130,606      130,606
Restructuring Provisions                                                                 0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Income smoothing Provisions                                                              0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
On-going operating Provisions                                                            0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Long-term operating Provisions                                                           0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Retirement Related Liabilities                                                           0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Minority Interest                                                                  20,295        24,119        34,408           193            0            0             0           0            0            0
Preferred Stock                                                                         0            0              0            0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Total Common Equity                                                               505,002      426,416        630,150      551,023      318,455      762,701       718,197     730,910      747,826      618,559

Total Liabs and Equity                                                            #######       #######     2,382,383       #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######

Check: Assets = Liabilites                                    OK                         0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0



Traditional Cash flow
Reported EBITA                                                                     87,469      109,889        200,849      191,747      180,969       97,322        77,705     143,333      148,452       (46,672)
Depreciation                                                                       21,314       24,342         52,797       64,962       83,328      114,698       163,946     114,728      114,545      314,941
EBITDA                                                                            108,783      134,231        253,646      256,709      264,297      212,019       241,651     258,062      262,997      268,269

Less investment in working capital                                                 64,021       (13,104)     (187,159)     (254,189)    255,722       35,466        57,189        5,172       (4,000)      (2,764)
Foreign exchange translation effects                                                    0            0              0             0           0            0             0           0            0            0
Operating cashflow                                                                172,804      121,127         66,487         2,520     520,019      247,485       298,840     263,234      258,997      265,505

Less tax paid                                                                     (11,064)       (3,271)       39,571       (13,677)      (6,582)         483        7,399      (11,673)     (13,074)     35,654

Capital investments
Less capex                                                                               0             0               0          0            0     (115,621)    (163,462)    (112,111)    (118,503)    (117,004)
Less investment                                                                   (17,553)      (35,548)      392,837             0     (428,836)           0             0           0            0            0
Less goodwill & intangibles acquired                                              (13,561)      (47,537)     (437,796)      (55,056)    228,194             0       50,000            0            0            0
                                                                                        0             0             0             0           0
On-going operating Provision                                                                                                                                0             0           0            0            0
Less other operating assets/liabilities                                           (56,632)       (35,037)    (534,480)     (579,667)    (135,034)           0            0            0            0            0
Total capital inv estments                                                        (87,746)     (118,122)     (579,438)     (634,723)    (335,676)    (115,621)    (113,462)    (112,111)    (118,503)    (117,004)

Finance
Interest Income                                                                     7,383         6,213          5,455        3,525      15,187           213        1,583        3,080        3,566        3,778
Interest Expense                                                                  (24,029)      (24,753)       (46,413)    (125,206)    (108,251)     (76,134)     (85,554)     (76,390)     (76,390)     (76,390)
Debt raised/repaid                                                                (42,281)     154,165        631,688      944,915        40,763     (421,000)           0            0            0            0
Total finance payments                                                            (58,927)     135,625        590,730      823,234       (52,301)    (496,921)     (83,971)     (73,310)     (72,824)     (72,612)

Plus non-operating income &expense
Non-Oper Income                                                                   (15,281)      (33,664)       (26,254)     (18,453)     (86,412)     (23,331)     (23,331)     (23,331)     (23,331)     (23,331)
Special items                                                                         (488)            0               0          0     (242,955)           0             0           0            0            0
Extraordinary items                                                                 2,169        25,246          4,394          218          217          217          217          217          217          217
Investment in non-operating assets                                                       0             0       (18,943)     (11,852)        (523)           0             0           0            0            0
Retirement Related Assets                                                               0             0              0            0            0            0            0            0            0            0
Total non-operating items                                                         (13,600)       (8,418)       (40,803)     (30,087)    (329,673)     (23,114)     (23,114)     (23,114)     (23,114)     (23,114)

Less payments from reserves and to minorities
Restructuring charges                                                                    0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Income smoothing Provision                                                               0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Long-term operating Provision                                                            0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Retirement Related Liabilities                                                           0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Minority interest                                                                     225        (3,567)         5,018      (37,424)           0            0             0           0            0            0
Total payments to reserv es/minorities                                                225        (3,567)         5,018      (37,424)           0            0             0           0            0            0

Equity
Less pref dividends paid                                                                 0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Prefs issued/(redeemed)                                                                  0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Less dividends paid                                                                      0      (22,219)               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Equity raised/repaid                                                               11,249      (137,720)      117,581      (109,762)       6,036     445,477       (22,523)     (22,523)     (22,523)     (22,523)
Total equity cash payments                                                         11,249      (159,939)      117,581      (109,762)       6,036     445,477       (22,523)     (22,523)     (22,523)     (22,523)

Net Cashflow                                                                       12,941       (36,565)      199,146            81     (198,177)     57,789        63,169      20,503         8,958      65,906


Cash/overdraft
Opening balance                                                                    31,574        44,515          7,950     207,096      207,177         9,000       66,789     129,958      150,460      159,419
Increase/ (Decrease)                                                               12,941       (36,565)      199,146            81     (198,177)     57,789        63,169      20,503         8,958      65,906
Closing balance                                                                    44,515         7,950       207,096      207,177         9,000      66,789       129,958     150,460      159,419      225,324
Check: Cash calc = Cash balance                               OK                        0             0             0            0             (0)         0             0           0            0            0

Excess cash                                                                        44,515         7,950       207,096      207,177         9,000      66,789       129,958     150,460      159,419      225,324
Balancing debt                                                                           0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0


NOPLAT
Reported EBITA                                                                     87,469      109,889        200,849      191,747      180,969       97,322        77,705     143,333      148,452       (46,672)
Adj for Operating Leases                                                                 0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Adj for Non-operating component of pension expense                                       0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Add: Interest associated with Long-term operating Provision                              0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Add: Increase in Income smoothing Provision                                             0            0              0            0            0            0             0           0            0             0
Adj usted EBITA                                                                    87,469      109,889        200,849      191,747      180,969       97,322        77,705     143,333      148,452       (46,672)

Taxes on EBITA                                                                    (22,431)      (31,023)       (37,710)     (48,039)     (97,782)     (24,330)     (19,426)     (35,833)     (37,113)     11,668
Change in Deferred Taxes                                                            8,929        18,017        58,071        (5,172)     (13,212)          0             0           0            0             0
NOPLAT                                                                             73,967        96,883       221,210      138,537        69,975      72,991        58,279     107,500      111,339       (35,004)



Taxes on EBIT
Prov for Inc Taxes                                                                 13,355        16,406        20,907       13,005        (7,826)        (483)       (7,399)    11,673       13,074       (35,654)
Tax Shield on Interest Exp                                                          6,728         6,931        11,603       31,302       27,063       19,034        21,388      19,098       19,098       19,098
Tax Shield on Operating Lease Interest                                                   0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Tax Shield on Non-operating component of pension expense                                 0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Tax Shield on Interest associated with Long-term operating Provision                     0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Tax on Interest Income                                                              (2,067)      (1,740)        (1,364)        (881)      (3,797)         (53)        (396)        (770)        (891)        (945)
Tax on Non-operating Income                                                         4,415         9,426         6,564        4,613       82,342        5,833         5,833       5,833        5,833         5,833
Taxes on EBIT                                                                      22,431        31,023        37,710       48,039       97,782       24,330        19,426      35,833       37,113       (11,668)



Reconciliation to Net Income
Net Income                                                                         39,926        59,134        86,153       30,635      (238,604)      (1,231)     (21,981)     35,236       39,440      (106,745)
Add: Increase in Deferred Taxes                                                     8,929        18,017        58,071        (5,172)     (13,212)           0             0           0            0            0
Add: Increase in Income smoothing Provision                                              0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Add: Goodwill Amortization                                                               0             0       25,701         4,982        5,378            0             0           0            0            0
Add: Extraordinary Items                                                            (2,169)     (25,246)        (4,394)        (218)        (217)        (217)        (217)        (217)        (217)        (217)
Add: Special Items After Tax                                                          351              0               0          0     182,216             0             0           0            0            0
Add: Minority Interest                                                              3,942         7,391         5,271        3,209          (193)           0            0           0            0             0
Adj usted Net Income                                                               50,979        59,296       170,801       33,436       (64,632)      (1,448)     (22,198)     35,019       39,223      (106,962)

Add: Interest Exp. After Tax                                                       17,301        17,822        34,810       93,905       81,188       57,101        64,165      57,293       57,293       57,293
Add: Interest Exp. On Long-term operating Provision                                      0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Add: Interest Exp. on Op. Leases                                                         0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Add: Interest Exp. on Non-operating component of pension expense                        0             0             0            0            0            0             0           0            0             0
Income Av ailable to Inv estors                                                    68,280        77,118       205,611      127,341       16,557       55,653        41,967      92,312       96,515       (49,669)

Add: Restructuring Charges                                                               0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Less: Interest Income After-Tax                                                     (5,316)      (4,473)        (4,091)      (2,644)     (11,390)        (160)       (1,187)     (2,310)      (2,674)      (2,834)
Less: Non-operating Income After Tax                                               11,002        24,238        19,691       13,840       64,809       17,498        17,498      17,498       17,498        17,498
NOPLAT                                                                             73,967        96,883       221,210      138,537       69,975       72,991        58,279     107,500      111,339       (35,004)



Check: NOPLAT                                                 OK                         0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0


Invested Capital
Operating Working Capital                                                         (32,548)      (14,562)      170,190      419,879      165,353      129,887        72,698      67,526       71,526       74,290
Net Property Plant and Equipment                                                  455,102      477,222        972,556       #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######
Other Assets Net of Other Liabs                                                     (5,960)     (17,385)       (31,036)    (103,785)    (130,606)    (130,606)    (130,606)    (130,606)    (130,606)    (130,606)
Less: On-going operating Provision                                                       0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Value of Operating Leases                                                               0            0              0            0            0            0            0            0            0            0
Op. Inv ested Capital (excl.Goodw ill)                                            416,594      445,275      1,111,710       #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######

Goodwill & Intangibles                                                            140,548      188,085        600,180      650,254      416,682      416,682       366,682     366,682      366,682      366,682
Cumulative Written Off & Amortized                                     63,129      63,129       63,129         88,830       93,812        99,190       99,190      99,190        99,190       99,190      99,190
Op. Inv ested Capital (incl.Goodw ill)                                            620,271      696,489      1,800,720       #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######

Excess Marketable Securities                                                       44,515         7,950       207,096      207,177         9,000      66,789       129,958     150,460      159,419      225,324
Investments                                                                       357,289      392,837                 0          0     428,836      428,836       428,836     428,836      428,836      428,836
Non-operating Assets                                                                     0             0       18,943       30,795       31,318       31,318        31,318      31,318       31,318       31,318
Retirement Related Assets                                                              0             0              0            0            0            0            0            0            0            0
Total Inv estor Funds                                                             #######       #######     2,026,759       #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######



Total Common Equity & Pref. Stock                                                 505,002      426,416        630,150      551,023      318,455      762,701       718,197     730,910      747,826      618,559
Cum Goodwill Written Off & Amortized                                               63,129        63,129        88,830       93,812       99,190       99,190        99,190      99,190       99,190       99,190
Deferred Income Taxes                                                              51,645        69,662       127,733      122,561      109,349      109,349       109,349     109,349      109,349      109,349
Dividends Payable                                                                  22,219              0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Income smoothing Provision                                                              0            0              0            0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Adj usted Equity                                                                  641,995      559,207        846,713      767,396      526,994      971,240       926,736     939,449      956,365      827,097

Minority Interest                                                                  20,295        24,119        34,408           193            0            0             0           0            0            0
Restructuring Provisions                                                                 0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Long-term operating Provision                                                            0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Retirement-Related Liabilities                                                           0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Interest Bearing Debt                                                             359,785      513,950      1,145,638       #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######
Value of Operating Leases                                                              0             0              0            0            0            0            0            0            0            0
Total Inv estor Funds                                                             #######       #######     2,026,759       #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######



Check: Investor Funds                                         OK                         0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0


Free Cash Flow
NOPLAT                                                                             73,967        96,883       221,210      138,537       69,975       72,991        58,279     107,500      111,339       (35,004)
Depreciation                                                                       21,314        24,342        52,797       64,962       83,328      114,698       163,946     114,728      114,545      314,941
Gross Cash Flow                                                                    95,281      121,225        274,007      203,499      153,303      187,689       222,225     222,228      225,884      279,937


Increase in Working Capital                                                        57,383       (17,986)     (184,752)     (249,689)    254,526       35,466        57,189        5,172       (4,000)      (2,764)
Capital Expenditures                                                                     0             0               0          0            0     (115,621)    (163,462)    (112,111)    (118,503)    (117,004)
Incr in other operating assets/liabilities                                        (56,632)      (35,037)     (534,480)     (579,667)    (135,034)           0             0           0            0            0
Incr in Ongoing operating Provisions                                                     0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Inv in Operating Leases                                                                 0             0             0             0           0             0            0            0            0            0
Gross Inv estment                                                                     751       (53,023)     (719,232)     (829,356)    119,492       (80,155)    (106,273)    (106,939)    (122,503)    (119,768)

Free Cash Flow Excl. Goodw ill                                                     96,032        68,202      (445,225)     (625,858)    272,795      107,534       115,951     115,290      103,381      160,169

Investment in Goodwill and Intangibles                                            (13,561)      (47,537)     (437,796)       (55,056)   228,194            0        50,000           0            0            0
Free Cash Flow Incl. Goodw ill                                                     82,471        20,665      (883,021)     (680,914)    500,989      107,534       165,951     115,290      103,381      160,169

AT Interest Income                                                                  5,316         4,473          4,091        2,644      11,390           160        1,187        2,310        2,674        2,834
(Incr)/Decr Excess Mkt Sec                                                        (12,941)       36,565      (199,146)          (81)    198,177       (57,789)     (63,169)     (20,503)      (8,958)     (65,906)
Foreign Exchange Translation                                                             0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
(Incr)/Decr Retirement Related Assets                                                    0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Non-operating Cash Flow                                                           (28,907)      (59,786)      354,204       (25,692)    (676,384)     (17,498)     (17,498)     (17,498)     (17,498)     (17,498)
Restructuring Cash Flow                                                                  0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Extraordinary items                                                                 2,169        25,246         4,394           218         217          217           217         217          217          217
Cash Flow Av ailable to Inv estors                                                 48,108        27,163      (719,478)     (703,825)     34,389       32,624        86,688      79,816       79,816       79,816



Financing Flow
AT Interest Expense                                                                17,301        17,822        34,810       93,905       81,188       57,101        64,165      57,293       57,293       57,293
Interest on Operating Leases                                                             0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Interest on Nonoperating Component of Pension Expense                                    0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Interest on Long-term Operating Provision                                                0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Decr/(Incr) in Debt                                                                42,281      (154,165)     (631,688)     (944,915)     (40,763)    421,000              0           0            0            0
Decr/(Incr) in Operating Leases                                                          0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Decr/(Incr) in Retirement Rel. Liab                                                      0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Decr/(Incr) in Long-term Operating Provision                                             0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Payments to Minorities                                                                (225)       3,567         (5,018)     37,424             0            0             0           0            0            0
Common Dividends                                                                         0       22,219                0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Preferred Dividends                                                                      0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Decr/(Incr) in Preferred                                                                 0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0
Decr/(Incr) in Share Capital                                                      (11,249)     137,720       (117,581)      109,762       (6,036)    (445,477)      22,523      22,523       22,523       22,523
Total Financing Flow                                                               48,108       27,163       (719,478)     (703,825)     34,389        32,624       86,688      79,816       79,816       79,816



Check: Investors CF = Financing CF                            OK                         0             0               0          0            0            0             0           0            0            0


Economic Profit
Before Goodw ill
Return on Invested Capital                                                          16.9%         23.3%          49.7%        12.5%         3.7%         4.4%         3.6%         6.8%         7.1%        -2.2%
WACC                                                                                  6.9%          8.0%          8.7%         5.9%         4.5%         6.5%         6.5%         6.5%         6.5%         6.5%
Spread                                                                              10.0%         15.3%          40.9%         6.5%        -0.8%        -2.1%         -2.9%        0.3%         0.6%        -8.7%
Invested Capital (Beg of Year)                                                    438,659      416,594        445,275       #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######       #######
Economic Profit (before Goodw ill)                                                 43,849       63,596        182,277       72,692       (15,290)     (35,605)     (48,076)       4,889        9,233     (137,626)



NOPLAT                                                                             73,967        96,883       221,210      138,537       69,975       72,991        58,279     107,500      111,339       (35,004)
Capital Charge                                                                    (30,117)      (33,287)       (38,933)     (65,845)     (85,265)    (108,596)    (106,354)    (102,611)    (102,106)    (102,622)
Economic Profit (before Goodw ill)                                                 43,849        63,596       182,277        72,692      (15,290)      (35,605)     (48,076)      4,889        9,233     (137,626)



After Goodw ill
Return on Invested Capital                                                          11.8%         15.6%          31.8%         7.7%         2.7%         3.3%         2.7%         5.3%         5.5%        -1.7%
WACC                                                                                  6.9%          8.0%          8.7%         5.9%         4.5%         6.5%         6.5%         6.5%         6.5%         6.5%
Spread                                                                                4.9%          7.6%         23.0%         1.8%        -1.9%        -3.2%         -3.8%       -1.2%        -1.0%        -8.2%
Invested Capital (Beg of Year)                                                    628,775      620,271        696,489       #######      #######      #######      #######      #######      #######       #######
Economic Profit (after Goodw ill)                                                  30,797       47,321        160,312       31,883       (49,106)     (69,085)     (81,556)     (25,346)     (21,002)    (167,861)


NOPLAT                                                                             73,967        96,883       221,210      138,537       69,975       72,991        58,279     107,500      111,339       (35,004)
Capital Charge                                                                    (43,170)      (49,562)       (60,898)    (106,654)    (119,081)    (142,076)    (139,834)    (132,846)    (132,341)    (132,857)
Economic Profit (after Goodw ill)                                                  30,797        47,321       160,312        31,883       (49,106)     (69,085)     (81,556)     (25,346)     (21,002)   (167,861)


DCF Valuation Calculations

CV period                                                                                                                                                   0             0           0            0            0
FCF period                                                               Sum                                                                 Sum            1             1           1            1            1


Free Cash Flow                                                                                                                           #######     107,534       165,951     115,290      103,381      160,169
Discount Factor                                                                                                                             1.00         0.94         0.88         0.83         0.78         0.73
PV of FCF                                                              #######                                                           #######     100,980       146,340      95,469       80,391      116,959
Continuing value                                                                                                                         #######            0             0           0            0            0
PV of Continuing value                                             850,451                                                              850,451             0             0           0            0            0
Operating v alue                                                    #######



Economic profit                                                                                                                         (361,116)     (69,085)     (81,556)     (25,346)     (21,002)    (167,861)
Discount Factor                                                                                                                             1.00         0.94         0.88         0.83         0.78         0.73
PV of EP                                                           (298,536)                                                            (298,536)     (64,874)     (71,918)     (20,989)     (16,331)    (122,576)
Continuing value                                                                                                                         98,409             0             0           0            0            0
PV of Continuing value                                                 38,318                                                            38,318             0             0           0            0            0
Invested capital at start of forecast                                  #######                                                           #######
Operating v alue                                                       #######



Check: EV=FCF                                                 OK


Minorities
Profits attributable to minorities                                                                                                                          0             0           0            0            0
Perpetuity based on final year detailed forecast                                                                                                            0             0           0            0            0
Discount factor                                                                                                                             1.00         0.94         0.88         0.83         0.78         0.73
Present Value                                                              0                                                                                0             0           0            0            0


Non-operating assets
Non-operating income                                                                                                                                  (23,331)     (23,331)     (23,331)     (23,331)     (23,331)
Perpetuity based on final year detailed forecast                                                                                                            0             0           0            0     (359,495)
Discount factor                                                                                                                             1.00         0.94         0.88         0.83         0.78         0.73
Present Value                                                      (359,495)                                                                          (21,909)     (20,574)     (19,320)     (18,143)    (279,549)


Restructuring costs
Restructuring costs paid                                                                                                                                    0             0           0            0            0
Discount factor                                                                                                                             1.00         0.94         0.88         0.83         0.78         0.73
Present Value                                                              0                                                                                0             0           0            0            0



Ratios
Adj usted EBITA / Rev enues
                    Cost of Goods Sold / Revenues                                     6.4%          6.5%          5.1%        33.7%        25.7%         9.5%         7.3%         6.5%         6.5%         6.5%
                    SGA costs / Revenue                                             72.1%         73.2%          73.2%        50.1%        56.9%        74.0%        74.0%        74.0%        74.0%        74.0%
                    EBITDA / Revenue                                                21.5%         20.3%          21.8%        16.3%        17.4%        16.5%        18.7%        19.5%        19.5%        19.5%
                    Depreciation / Revenues                                           4.8%          4.8%          5.3%         4.1%         4.8%         8.8%        12.5%         8.6%         8.4%        22.6%
                    Reported EBITA / Revenues                                       19.6%         21.8%          20.2%        12.0%        10.3%         7.4%         5.9%        10.7%        10.9%        -3.3%
                    Adjustments to EBITA / Revenues                                   0.0%          0.0%          0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%         0.0%
                    Adjusted EBITA / Revenues                                       19.6%         21.8%          20.2%        12.0%        10.3%         7.4%         5.9%        10.7%        10.9%        -3.3%

Return on Inv ested Capital (BY)
                    Net PPE / Revenues                                              94.9%         90.3%          48.0%        60.9%        89.0%      125.4%        125.0%      122.2%       119.7%       117.7%
                    Working Capital / Revenues                                        5.6%         -6.5%         -1.5%        10.7%        24.0%        12.7%         9.9%         5.4%         4.9%         5.1%
                    Net Other Assets / Revenues                                      -2.3%         -1.2%         -1.7%        -1.9%        -5.9%       -10.0%        -10.0%       -9.7%        -9.6%        -9.4%
                    Rev. / Inv. Capital (pre-Goodwill)                                 1.0           1.2           2.2          1.4          0.9          0.8           0.8         0.8          0.9          0.9
                    Pre-Tax ROIC                                                    19.9%         26.4%          45.1%        17.2%         9.6%         5.8%         4.7%         9.1%         9.4%        -3.0%
                    Cash Tax Rate                                                   15.4%         11.8%         -10.1%        27.8%        61.3%        25.0%        25.0%        25.0%        25.0%        25.0%
                    After-Tax ROIC (pre-Goodwill)                                   16.9%         23.3%          49.7%        12.5%         3.7%         4.4%         3.6%         6.8%         7.1%        -2.2%
                    Rev. / Inv. Capital (incl. Goodwill)                               0.7           0.8           1.4          0.9          0.7          0.6           0.6         0.7          0.7          0.7
                    After-Tax ROIC (incl. Goodwill)                                 11.8%         15.6%          31.8%         7.7%         2.7%         3.3%         2.7%         5.3%         5.5%        -1.7%

Return on Inv ested Cap (Av g)
                    Net PPE / Revenues                                              98.3%         92.5%          72.9%        79.2%        91.3%      125.5%        125.0%      122.1%       119.9%       110.6%
                    Working Capital / Revenues                                       -0.9%         -4.7%          7.8%        18.5%        16.7%        11.3%         7.7%         5.2%         5.1%         5.2%
                    Net Other Assets / Revenues                                      -1.8%         -2.3%         -2.4%        -4.2%        -6.7%       -10.0%        -10.0%       -9.7%        -9.6%        -9.4%
                    Rev. / Inv. Capital (pre-Goodwill)                                 1.0           1.2           1.3          1.1          1.0          0.8           0.8         0.9          0.9          0.9
                    Pre-Tax ROIC                                                    20.5%         25.5%          25.8%        12.8%        10.2%         5.9%         4.8%         9.1%         9.4%        -3.1%
                    After-Tax ROIC (pre-Goodwill)                                   17.3%         22.5%          28.4%         9.3%         3.9%         4.4%         3.6%         6.8%         7.1%        -2.4%
                    After-Tax ROIC (incl. Goodwill)                                 11.8%         14.7%          17.7%         6.3%         2.9%         3.4%         2.8%         5.3%         5.4%        -1.8%
                    Average ROE                                                       8.1%        12.7%          16.3%         5.2%       -54.9%        -0.2%         -3.0%        4.9%         5.3%       -15.6%

Grow th Rates
                    Revenue Growth Rate                                             20.8%         12.7%          97.3%        60.7%         9.7%       -25.4%         0.4%         2.3%         1.9%         2.0%
                    Adjusted EBITA Growth Rate                                          NA        25.6%          82.8%        -4.5%        -5.6%       -46.2%        -20.2%       84.5%         3.6%      -131.4%
                    NOPLAT Growth Rate                                                  NA        31.0%        128.3%        -37.4%       -49.5%         4.3%        -20.2%       84.5%         3.6%      -131.4%
                    Invested Capital Growth Rate                                     -1.4%        12.3%        158.5%         45.5%       -16.4%        -1.6%         -5.0%       -0.4%         0.4%        -9.5%




                                                                           05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx                                                                                                  Page 63
1/11/2011 5:40
Error check = OK
Name - Worst case                                      OK                                                                     Detailed Forecast
DK t.kr                                                                2005          2006          2007     2008     2009      2010       2011      2012     2013     2014

                 Net Income Growth Rate                              54.4%         48.1%          45.7%   -64.4%   -878.9%    -99.5%   1686.0%    -260.3%   11.9%   -370.7%

Inv estment Rates (excl. Goodw ill)
                 Gross Investment Rate                                -0.8%        43.7%        262.5%    407.5%    -77.9%    42.7%      47.8%     48.1%    54.2%    42.8%
                 Net Investment / NOPLAT                             -29.8%        29.6%        301.3%    551.8%   -289.8%    -47.3%    -99.0%      -7.2%    7.1%   557.6%

Financing
                 EBIT/Interest Payable                                  3.6           4.4           3.8      1.5      1.6       1.3        0.9       1.9      1.9      (0.6)
                 Adjusted EBITA/Interest payable                        3.6           4.4           4.3      1.5      1.7       1.3        0.9       1.9      1.9      (0.6)
                 Cash Coverage (Gross CF / Interest)                    4.0           4.9           5.9      1.6      1.4       2.5        2.6       2.9      3.0      3.7
                 Debt / Total Cap (Book)                             40.6%         53.3%          63.3%    79.1%    87.0%     69.2%      70.4%     70.1%    69.6%    73.4%
                 Debt / Total Cap (Market)                           25.0%         17.8%          27.4%    67.9%    74.0%

Valuation indicators
                 Mkt Val Op Inv Cap/ BV Op Inv Cap                      2.0           5.0           2.9      1.1      1.1
                 Market / Book (incl. Cum Goodwill)                     1.7           3.6           2.2      1.1      1.1
                 Mkt val Op Inv Cap / Adj EBITA                         9.5          20.3          16.3     10.9     10.5
                 Enterprise value / EBITA                              15.7          25.9          22.5     15.4     16.3
                 Price Earnings Ratio                                  26.5          39.6          34.8     32.2      (3.1)




                                                            05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx                                                                          Page 64
01/11/2011 05:40                     OK
Name - Worst case
DK t.kr

Value of Operations: DCF approach                                      Value of Operations: Economic Profit                                                             Value of Equity
             Free Cash     Discount                   PV                             Economic    Discount                                                        PV     Operating Value                       1,859,438
       Year        Flow      Factor               of FCF                      Year       Profit    Factor                                                      of EP    Excess Mkt Securities                     9,000
         2010        107,534           0.939      100,980                       2010           (69,085)       0.939                                          (64,874)   Financial Investments                   460,154
         2011        165,951           0.882      146,340                       2011           (81,556)       0.882                                          (71,918)   Excess Pension Assets                         0
         2012        115,290           0.828       95,469                       2012           (25,346)       0.828                                          (20,989)
         2013        103,381           0.778       80,391                       2013           (21,002)       0.778                                          (16,331)   Enterprise Value                       2,328,592
         2014        160,169           0.730      116,959                       2014        (167,861)         0.730                                         (122,576)   Debt                                  (2,131,316)
         2015         47,084           0.686       32,286                       2015            (4,696)       0.686                                           (3,220)   Capitalized Operating Leases                   0
         2016        114,759           0.644       73,897                       2016            (6,455)       0.644                                           (4,157)   Retirement Related Liability                   0
         2017        110,737           0.605       66,961                       2017            (3,944)       0.605                                           (2,385)   Preferred Stock                                0
         2018        125,021           0.568       70,991                       2018            (2,148)       0.568                                           (1,220)   Minority Interest                              0
         2019        120,401           0.533       64,201                       2019               466        0.533                                              249    Long-Term Operating Provision                  0
         2020         99,951           0.501       50,048                       2020             2,629        0.501                                            1,316    Restructuring Provision                        0
         2021        101,950           0.470       47,938                       2021             3,351        0.470                                            1,576    Future Stock Options                           0
         2022        103,989           0.442       45,917                       2022             4,087        0.442                                            1,805    Stock options                                  0
         2023        106,069           0.415       43,981                       2023             4,839        0.415                                            2,006    Equity Value                             197,276
         2024        108,190           0.389       42,126                       2024             5,605        0.389                                            2,182
  Cont. Value      2,184,145           0.389      850,451                 Cont. Value           98,409        0.389                                           38,318    No. shares (thousands)                    9.875
Operating Value                            16   1,928,938              Present Value of Economic Profit                                                     (260,218)   Value per Share                           19.98
                                                                       Invested Capital (incl. goodwill)                                                   2,189,156
Continuing value % Operating value                 44.1%                                                                                                                -High                                   1989.00
                                                                       Operating Value                                                                     1,928,938    -Low                                      78.00
Mid -Year Adjustment Factor                         0.964              Mid -Year Adjustment Factor                                                             0.964    Value Difference - High                  -99.0%
Operating Value (Adjusted)                      1,859,438              Operating Value (Adjusted)                                                          1,859,438    Value Difference - Low                   -74.4%


Comparison of key ratios                                                                                              Evaluation of entry and exit multiples
                                                             Averages
From:                                                2004     2010              2015            2020
To:                                                  2009     2014              2019            2024                                                                                                   2009         2025
Revenue growth (CAG)                               36.5%      -4.5%             2.2%           2.0%                   Operating Value                                                             1,859,438   2,184,145
Adjusted EBITA growth (CAG)                        19.9%    -176.3%               NA           2.0%
NOPLAT growth (CAG)                                -1.4%    -187.1%               NA           2.0%                   Excess Mkt Securities                                                          9,000
Invested capital growth (CAG)                      37.1%      -3.3%             0.9%           1.5%                   Financial Investments                                                        460,154

Adj. EBIT/Revenues                                 14.0%       6.3%            10.8%          10.8%                   Enterprise Value                                                            2,328,592   2,184,145

Revenues/Invested Capital (pre-Goodwill)              1.4        0.8             1.1             1.1                  Revenue                                                                     1,752,192   1,750,013
ROIC (after tax, pre-Goodwill)                     21.2%       3.9%             8.6%           9.0%                   Adjusted EBITA                                                                180,969     189,001
ROIC (after tax, including Goodwill)               13.9%       3.0%             6.3%           6.7%                   NOPLAT                                                                         69,975     141,751
Average Economic Profit                           24,579    (72,970)          (3,355)         4,102
                                                                                                                      Enterprise / Revenue                                                              1.3          1.2
Cash Tax Rate                                      21.2%     25.0%             25.0%          25.0%                   Enterprise / Adjusted EBITA                                                      12.9         11.6
WACC                                                6.8%      6.5%              6.5%           6.5%                   Enterprise / NOPLAT                                                              33.3         15.4




McKinsey & Company Confidential                                                                            05ebc497-3061-4cfe-9e1c-1357980e6368.xlsx                                                                        Page 65
                                   2003/04         2004/05           2005/06
DK t.kr                             2004            2005              2006
                                               ----------------- -----------------
Historical Income Statement
Revenues                            369,915        447,038           503,976
Other Operating Revenues              9,289         15,251            35,065
Costs of Goods Sold                 (18,726)       (28,613)          (32,728)
Selling, Gen & Admin Expenses      (264,590)      (322,461)         (368,949)
Depreciation Expense                (19,477)       (21,314)          (24,342)
Other Operating Expense              (3,100)        (2,432)           (3,133)
Reported EBITA                       73,311         87,469           109,889
Amortization of Goodwill                  0              0                 0
Amortization of Intangibles               0              0                 0
Non-Operating Income                (18,126)       (15,281)          (33,664)
Interest Income                       7,429          7,383             6,213
Interest Expense                    (19,736)       (24,029)          (24,753)
Restructuring Charges                     0                                0
Special Items                        (2,217)           (488)               0
Earnings Before Taxes                40,661          55,054           57,685
Income Taxes                        (13,502)        (13,355)         (16,406)
Minority Interest                    (1,301)         (3,942)          (7,391)
Income Before Extraord. Items        25,858          37,757           33,888
Extraord. Items (After Tax)                           2,169           25,246
Net Income                          25,858           39,926           59,134
Preference dividends
Earnings for common shareholders    25,858           39,926            59,134
Common dividends                                    (22,219)
Retained profit                     25,858           17,707            59,134




Statement of changes in equity
Beginning Equity                     NA            476,046           505,002
Retained profit                      NA             17,707            59,134
Foreign Exchange Rate Changes
Issue of New Shares/buy back
Goodwill Written Off
Other Adjustments to Equity         NA              11,249          (137,720)
Ending Equity                      476,046         505,002           426,416
Historical Balance Sheet
Operating Cash                                 41,758      22,561      53,651
Excess marketable securities                   31,574      44,515       7,950
Accounts Receivable                           160,129     127,151     107,817
Inventories                                    11,488      14,446      17,187
Other Current Assets                            6,308       6,914       5,315
Total Current Assets                          251,257     215,587     191,920
Net Property Plant and Equip                  424,094     455,102     477,222
Goodwill                                       79,658      80,020      82,518
Other Intangible Assets                        47,329      60,528     105,567
Other Operating Assets                              0           0           0
Investments & Advances                        339,736     357,289     392,837
Deferred tax Asset                              2,548       2,994       5,585
Other Non-op Assets                                 0           0           0
Retirement Related Assets (non-operating)           0           0           0
Total Assets                                1,144,622   1,171,520   1,255,649

Short Term Debt                              150,466      61,682     376,332
Accounts Payable                             139,729     153,318     136,424
Tax Payable                                   11,651       5,013         131
Dividends Payable                                  0      22,219           0
Other Current Liabilities                     43,468      45,289      61,977
Total Current Liabilities                    345,314     287,521     574,864

Balancing Debt                                     0            0           0
Long Term Debt                               251,600      298,103     137,618
Deferred Income Taxes                         45,264       54,639      75,247
Other operating liabilities                   10,270        5,960      17,385
Restructuring Provisions                           0            0           0
Income smoothing Provisions                        0            0           0
On-going operating Provisions                      0            0           0
Long-term operating Provisions                     0            0           0
Retirement Related Liabilities                     0            0           0
Minority Interest                             16,128       20,295      24,119
Preferred Stock                                                 0           0
Total Long Term Liabilities                   323,262     378,997     254,369
Total Common Equity                           476,046     505,002     426,416
Total Liabs and Equity                      1,144,622   1,171,520   1,255,649
Balance sheet check                                 0           0           0
    2006/07
     2007
-----------------

  1,491,714
     58,427
    (75,698)
 (1,091,307)
    (79,195)
     (2,667)
    301,274
          0
    (38,551)
    (39,381)
      8,182
    (69,619)
          0
          0
    161,905
    (31,361)
     (7,906)
    122,638
      6,591
    129,229

     129,229

     129,229




     426,416
     129,229




      74,505
     630,150
  101,133
  207,096
  152,324
  312,357
   13,206
  786,116
  972,556
  449,463
  150,717
        0
        0
    4,588
   18,943
        0
2,382,383

  922,342
  304,141
    2,538
        0
  102,151
1,331,172

        0
  223,296
  132,321
   31,036
        0
        0
        0
        0
        0
   34,408
        0
  421,061
  630,150
2,382,383
        0

								
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