Population Migration and Changing Spatial Distribution of
Population
I. Factors Governing China’s Population Distribution
Physical
Historical
II. Changing Population Distribution since the People’s Republic
Spatial Differences in Natural Increase Rates
Population Migration: Most important factor governing spatial distribution
III. Hukou (Household Registration) System 戶口制度
Gradually took shape in 1950s. Culminated in the 1958 Regulations on Population
Registration of PRC (passed at the NPC on 1 Jan 1958)
Supported by
Grain Rationing 口糧分配 in urban areas;
State monopoly of job provision in non-farm sectors;
People’s Communes
Effective divides the population into two main categories:
nongye hukou 農業戶口（agricultural households)
feinongye hukou 非農業戶口 (non-agricultural households)
Only the non-agricultural households, i.e., the urbanites, will be provided with
grain ration coupons.
Also the State tries to locate jobs and through this all kinds of welfare benefits to
the urbanites
IV. Phases of Population Migration
1. Pre-reform Period
Early Years of PRC
Ref: 沈益民，董童珠(1992）《中國人口遷移》，第四章。
1. Southward Transfer of Cadres and their Families. Approx. 400,000 (Early 1950s)
2. Transfer of Unemployed Workers in Major Cities to the rural hinterlands.
A total of 2.16 million were moved out of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and
Nanjing.
Throughout 1950s.
Forced migration rather common. Eg., In 1950, 20,000 unemployed were
forced to move out from Shanghai and settled in the state farms in Yancheng,
Jiangsu Province.
3. Transfer of industrial workers (technical and manual) from the major coastal cities
to set up industrial bases in the interior.
4. Sanxian Development represented the height of such transfers.
associated with the drive to develop heavy industries and urban
development; and rural-to-urban migration which numbered tens of
millions.
5. Distribution of migrants
i. 1950s:
Major Recipients:
a. Northeast, particularly Heilongjiang (>3 million in-migrants). Liaoning
and Jilin were also important
b. North China,. Inner Mongolia (2-3 million); Beijing (1-2 million). Shanxi
also important
c. Southwest: Sichuan (1-2 million)
d. Northwest: Xinjiang (1-2 million); Shaanxi (1-2 million); but Gansu,
Qinghai and Ningxia also important
Major “Donars”:
a. Shandong (>2 million)
b. Shanghai (.5-.6 million)
c. But Hunan, Anhui and Zhejiang also important.
ii. 1960s, particularly in Sanxian period:
Major Recipients:
a. Sichuan: > 400,000 moved from NE, North China, and East China.
b. Qinghai: 10,800 mechanical engineering workers transfered to Qinghai
during 3rd FYP (1966-70)
c. Guizhou: Some 100,000 workers transfered to Guizhou during Sanxian
Construction
d. Other Important Recipients: Henan, Ningxia, and Small Sanxian districts
in Anhui, Jianxi
iii. Migration related to Resource Exploitation and Water Conservancy Projects
Mainly to the resource-rich provinces
For water conservancy related moves, distances involved were usually quite short.
Eg. Xinanjiang and Fucunjiang Reservoirs in Zhejiang. People affected transfered
to nearby Jiangxi Province.
iv. Migrant settlers in frontier regions
Major Recipients
Xinjiang (>800,000; some 100,000 were prisoners to undergo
“reconstruction (gaizao)”)
Qinghai
Inner Mongolia
Northeast, especially Heilongjiang (380,000 in the period 1952-57)
Major Donars:
Shangdong: 1.1 million moved out between 1955 and 1960
Henan: 529,000 moved out between 1956 and 1958
v. Urban to rural moves to control urban unemployment (Xiafang 下 放 )
First Wave: After failure of Great Leap Forward.
Between 1961 and 1963, 26 million people moved from cities to rural hinterlands.
Second Wave: During Cultural Revolution.
The Rustication Program 下放: Sending Educated youth to the rural areas.
Dec 1968, Gov’t called for the “up the mountain and down the village
movement 上山下鄉”.
All junior and senior secondary school graduates in cities were sent to the
rural areas.
17 million educated youths were sent down between 1968 and 1976.
Mostly in nearby districts; but a substantial number (1-2 million) involved
in inter-provincial moves, mainly to the outlying provinces.
Eg. Shanghai 1968-76. 600,000 educated youths were sent down. Of
whom >80% to Anhui, Heilongjiang, Jilin and other outlying provinces.
2. Post-Reform Period
A. Two types of migrants:
1. De Jure Migration (Permanent Migration):
State Sanctioned
Move with a corresponding change in hukou (household registration)
Largely under control
state policy driven; often involuntary
urban-to-rural migration as likely as rural-to-urban migration
Extent of de jure migration: post-reform period similar to pre-reform period
1990 Census: 13.97 million (moved within a five-year period)
2. De Facto Migration:
legally dubious
without a corresponding change in hukou
hence migrants lack full citizen rights in place of destination
economic motives driven, mostly voluntary
rural-to-urban migration predominates
A great increase since the launching of the reform:
1982 Census 1990 Census 1995 1% Survey
6.57 million 21.35 million 49.70 million
In almost all major cities, temporary migrants or the “floating population” account
for over 30% of the total population.
1990 Census Definition: Only people who had left their place of origin for more than
one year were counted. Hence the above a gross underestimate of the extent of
temporary migration.
Note: For the 1995 bi-census, thecut-off points for measuring migration are 6 months
away from the place of hukou residence and crossing zhen (qu in cities) boundaries.
This rapid increase in the migration incidence, especially de facto or “temporary
migration” has to do with China’s huge surplus agricultural labour
China: Estimates of Surplus Agricultural Labour (10000)
Year Total Supply of Total Demand Surplus Labour Surplus as % of
Labour in Rural for Labour in Total Labour
Areas Rural Areas Supply
1987 49927 33123 16804 33.66
2000 56860 36226 20634 36.29
2025 53888 40647 13241 24.57
Source: “ 課題組 ” (1991)，498.
Some Implications of increased population mobility
governance, including social control and the allocation of resource over space
“mengliu” (blindfold flows) Vs “mingong” (civil workers)
the question of “guerrilla of excess births” 超生游擊隊
increase in the incidence of crime
challenge to the socialist state economy and existing social order
benefits of increased interactions between people of different backgrounds
utilization of human capital: responding to different opportunities over space
B. Geographical Distribution of the Migration Flows
1990 Census Data
A. Intra- and Inter-Provincial Moves
Intra-provincial Inter-provincial Total
Male 12123598 6683886 18807484
Female 10350561 4633050 15283611
Total 22774159 11316936 34091095
B. Top Ten Provinces with the Highest In-Migration Rates (1990 Census):
Notes:
A. Provinces with high in-migration rates:
1. The three centrally-administered municipalities have the highest in-migration
rates
2. Main beneficiaries of the reform: Guangdong 廣東, Jiangsu 江蘇( and later
Hainan 海南) also report high in-migration rates
3. But some remote border provinces such as Ningxia, Xinjiang and Qinghai manage
to record high in-migration rates.
Detailed examination of census data shows that moves to these frontier
provinces have little to do with gov’t policy: job transfers and new job
assignment account for only a small portion of moves to the frontier
provinces.
National 全 國 Qinghai 清 海 Xinjiang 新 疆
Job Transfer 15.06 9.18 3.34
Job Assignment 4.53 6.11 2.82
Job Searching & 29.46 47.20 39.97
Trading
It remains a puzzle why so many people would like to seek fortune in
these remote provinces
B. Provinces with high out-migration rates:
1. Mostly the frontier provinces, eg. Qinghai, Xinjiang. The frontier provinces thus
have both high in- and out-migration rates => High rates of turnover. Many who
migrated to the frontier provinces move back to their former homes in the Chinese
heartland. Eg. 130712 moves from Heilongjiang to Shandong were recorded in
the 1990 Census.
2. Provinces with relatively low levels of economic development, e.g. Sichuan and
Guangxi, also show high out-migration rates.
3. In the main, migration flows are from the less to the more developed part of the
country, and from the interior to the coastal provinces.
4. Exception: Zhejiang, especially from the Wenzhou area:
Some 700,000 migrants from Wenzhou have taken up residence in othe
rparts of the country.
Zhejiang enclaves have emerged in major cities throughout the country.
C. Net Migration:
1. Three centrally-administered municipalities have the highest net inflow rates.
2. But Guangdong is the largest net recipient of migrants: 910,000.
V. Migration and Urbanization
A. Prior to Reform
A consequence of controlled (regulated) migration is industrialization without
urbanization:
Level of Urbanization (percentage of population living in urban areas):
Early 1950s: 10.6%; rising rapidly to approx 20% in 1958; thereafter declining
slightly to
1964: 18.4%
1982: 20.6% => Maintained at a relatively low level throughout the 1960’s
and 70’s.
During this period, the gross industrial output value grew at an annual rate in the
region of 10%.
Had been hailed as a major achievement of socialism. China was seen to be able
to contain problems associated with excessive urbanization in the Third World:
Urban crimes; environmental pollution; chronic housing shortages; squatting;
traffic jams.
Scholars today see this in a different light. Anti-urbanism is a myth. Containing
urban growth by stricting enforcing the hukou system was a way to concentrate
resources in the industrial sector, especially for the development of heavy
industry.
B. Post Reform Urbanization
Migration flows in the 1980s: mainly from the rural to the urban areas:
1990: 26.23%; or a rise of 5.6 percentage points over 1982.
1995 (bi-census): 28.85% (or roughly 350 million people living in urban
areas.
VI. Urban Hierarchy
A. Government Policy:
1980 (October, First All China City Planning Conference): Strictly control the
size of large cities, reasonably develop medium cities, and actively promote the
growth of small cities
1989 (Article 4, City Planning Law, PRC): Strictly control the size of large cities,
reasonably develop medium and small cities
Note the subtle change in emphasis: growth of small cities is no longer actively
promoted.
Note also the inherent anti-urban bias in the official policy
B. Distribution of Urban Centres by Size, 1979-89:
Large cities have accounted for a very high percentage of urban population in
China, but the tilt toward large cities has been somewhat corrected during the
1980s.
Small cities show the largest increase (whether in terms of number, or in terms of
their share of urban population
Issues to be discussed
Government policy on city size distribution
But how important is it given the increasing reliance on the market as a major
means of resource allocation?
Also, there has been a gradual relaxation of hukou control and the
corresponding rationing system. This has significantly curtailed the ability of
the government to control migration flows.
What are the pros and cons of restricting the growth of large cities?
One may ask why should we adopt an anti-large city stance, when large
cities are associated with various agglomeration economies. This is especially
the case in a market driven economy.
Township and Village enterprises
They acted as a reservoir. The growth of TVEs helped contain potential
migrant workers within the rural areas and foster the growth of towns and
small cities.
But TVE’s importance may dwindle with the deepening of the reforms.
Even larger rural-to-urban migration flows are likely to be reported in
future.
implications of large concentrations of migrants without the proper hukou status
in large cities.
Source of instability
Planning nightmare