Livestock Monitor
A Newsletter for Extension Staff
Livestock Marketing Information Center
State Extension Services in Cooperation with the USDA
Market Indicators . . . August 30, 2010
Production Prices
Week Ending 8/28/2010 Last Year Ago Weekly Weighted Avg. Last Week Ago Year Ago
FI Cattle Slaughter (Thou Hd) 678 660 Live Steer 99.05 98.65 84.41
FI Hog Slaughter (Thou Hd) 2110 2203 Dressed Steer 155.00 154.55 131.67
FI Sheep Slaughter (Thou Hd) 40 43 Beef Cutout (Choice 600-900) 163.79 158.48 143.67
Live Y. Chicken Sl. (Mil Hd) 164.3 164.0 USDA Hide/Offal ($/Cwt) 10.85 10.86 9.44
GA Auction Fdr. Str. (6-7 Cwt.) 104.01 103.53 91.61
Slaughter Cattle Live Weight 1280 1297
Slaughter Hog Live Weight 268 269 Iowa/S. Minn. Base Hog (Wtd. Avg) 80.38 82.24 46.05
Slaughter Lamb/Sheep Live Wt. 131 134 Natl. Net Hog Carcass (Wtd. Avg) 83.05 81.80 51.92
Feeder Pigs (40 Lbs) 56.57 55.81 13.53
Beef Production (Mil Pounds) 525.3 517.8 Pork Cutout 94.99 93.85 56.55
Pork Production (Mil Pounds) 421.9 441.4
Lamb, Mutton Prod. (Mil Lbs.) 2.6 2.9 Lamb Cutout ($/Cwt) 272.91 271.52 211.79
Previous 6 Wk. Moving Avg. Corn, Omaha ($/Bu) 3.81 3.77 3.14
Total Beef (Mil Lbs) 511.2 503.4 Wheat, Portland ($/Bu) 6.25 6.40 4.93
Total Pork (Mil Lbs) 404.1 431.2 Wheat, Kansas City ($/Bu) 6.15 5.89 4.70
Total Lamb, Mutton (Mil Lbs) 2.7 3.0 Soybeans, S. Iowa ($/Bu) 10.50 10.45 11.61
Source: Various USDA-AMS reports. Some data are preliminary.
Trends . . . STEER AND HEIFER WEIGHTS STILL BELOW A YEAR AGO
Steer and heifer weights are rather seasonal in nature, as dressed weights modestly increase
during the summer, peak in the fall and gradually decline through the winter months before hitting a
seasonal low during the spring. This year is no exception; however, the seasonal increase in steer
and heifer weights has not been as strong this summer relative to prior years and weights still
remain well below a year ago. This is not only a continuation of the results from last winter’s
severe weather, but also the extreme heat and humidity during late July and early August.
In early May, steer dressed weights posted a seasonal low of 804 pounds, similar to the timing
of the seasonal low last year, but well below the 820 pounds posted in 2009. Since then, steer
dressed weights have slowly increased reaching 840 pounds as of the weekending August 14th
(most recent actual weekly data reported by USDA). Typically, steer dressed weights increase on
average about six percent from the seasonal low in early May to early August. This year steer
dressed weights have increased about five percent as of early August. According to weekly data,
steer dressed weights are expected to
average about 835 pounds in July, 11
STEER DRESSED WEIGHT
Federally Inspected, Weekly pounds lighter than 2009’s, but about one
Pounds
percent heaver than the prior five-year
880 average. So far this year (through
870 Avg.
2004- weekending August 14th), steer dressed
860
850
08
weights have been 17 pounds lower than
840
2009
last year, but around a percent higher than
830 the 2004-2008 average.
820
810
Average dressed weights for heifers
800 2010 this year have been well below last year,
790 again due to the lingering impacts of
780
severe winter weather conditions and a hot
R
N
T
L
C
JU
AP
JA
O
summer. Averaged dressed weights for
heifers posted a seasonal low of 738 pounds in number of sows farrowed in the second quarter
late May versus 2009r’s low of 752 pounds of 2010 was down about four percent; with the
posted the same week last year. Normally, pig crop over four percent smaller than in 2009.
heifer dressed weights increase around five Of note, producers intend to farrow about five to
percent from the seasonal low to early August. six percent fewer sows during the remainder of
This year dressed weights increased only about 2010. As of July 1, Canada reported the
four percent to 768 pounds (as of weekending number of market hogs at 10.5 million head
August 14th), and were still below last year. For versus 10.7 million head last year, a two
July, heifer dressed weights should average percent decline and nine percent smaller than
around 760 pounds versus 770 pounds last 2008’s.
July, but this remains one percent higher than
the 2004-2008 average. By early August, heifer MILK PRODUCTION
dressed weights have averaged about 16 On August 18, 2010, USDA-NASS released
pounds lower this year compared to 2009 and the July Milk Production report, which reported
about two percent heavier than the 2004-2008 milk production at 15.3 billion pounds for the 23
year-to-date average. major states, a three percent increase from last
year. In July, production per cow for the 23
CANADIAN INVENTORY UPDATE major states averaged 1830 pounds, a 59
Last week, Statistics Canada released the pound increase above July 2009 and eight
July 1 Cattle and Hog Inventory numbers which percent higher than the 2004-2008 average.
reported the total number of cattle and hogs According to the report, the number of milk
continued to decline relative to prior years. cows (23 major states) totaled 8.37million head
According to Statistics Canada, the Canadian that was down 26,000 head from last July.
cattle herd has been in a steady decline since However on a monthly basis, dairy cow
its peak in 2005. Additionally, hog numbers numbers increased 19,000 head from June to
continue to decline, but the year-over-year rate July and have increased each month thus far
of decline in hog numbers has moderated this this year. Since June Idaho and Texas each
year. The continued decline in Canadian cattle added 5,000 head into production, while
and hog numbers is the result of a number California, Indiana, Iowa, and New Mexico each
factors including higher feed costs, economic reported a small decline in cow numbers (less
uncertainty in the domestic and global markets, than one percent).
and continued impacts from COOL legislation in The latest CWT 2010 buyout ended June
those provinces that rely on exports (mostly of 25, 2010, implying that late July and August
hogs) to the U.S. 2010 milk production and cow numbers should
As of July 1st, the Canadian cattle herd was reflect some decrease as a result of the buyout.
at 14.0 million head compared to 14.7 million However, only five states saw a drop in milk
head a year earlier. That was a year-to-year production: Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Missouri,
decline of 4.9 percent and 17 percent less than and Vermont. Out of these five states,
when mid-year inventory numbers peaked in participants listed in the buyout came from
2005. According to the report, the number of Vermont, Missouri, and Illinois, but the largest
beef cows was down 5.1 percent from last year, decreases were from Arizona and Florida. Both
while the number of dairy cows was just a tad Arizona and Florida have seen above-average
less (down 0.1 percent) than 2009’s mid-year temperatures that could be adding to the
number. As reported by Stats Canada, beef decrease in milk production. In terms of cow
producers have not shown any indications of numbers, the total U.S. has seen an increase of
herd rebuilding as the number of beef heifer 20,000 cows since June and an increase of
replacements at mid-year was 2.3 percent 58,000 since the January 2010. Since January,
smaller than a year ago. herds have been increasing at an increasing
According to the report, the total number of rate. The July increase in cow numbers was the
hogs on July 1st was 11.8 million head, about largest monthly rate of growth since January
284 thousand head or 2.4 percent smaller than 2008. It remains unclear if buyouts can keep
a year ago. The Canadian breeding herd up with herd additions. After the disastrous
totaled 1.3 million head, five percent smaller 2009, cow numbers are again ramping up, even
than 2009 and the smallest July quarterly with the modest level of profits apparent so far
breeding herd reported since 1997. The in 2010.