E i d H i O tl k
2008 Economic and Housing Outlook
September 17, 2008
D J PG i
Dr. James P. Gaines
Research Economist
Real Estate Center
Real Estate Center
at Texas A&M University
REAL ESTATE CENTER
at TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY
Mays School of Business
Mays School of Business
recenter.tamu.edu
Publications
P bli ti
Tierra Grande
Monthly Economic
Reports
Market Reports
Technical Reports
RECON Newsletter REC Website
2
p
Topics for Discussion
• US, Texas and Local
Economies
Mortgage and Capital
• Mortgage and Capital
Markets
• Housing Market Trends
•D hi T d
Demographic Trends
3
Challenging Economy 2008
• Definite Economic Slowdown: Recession?
g
• Soft Housing Market
• Interest Rates and Capital Markets
Inflation and Consumer Spending
• Inflation and Consumer Spending
• Unemployment
Corporate spending and expansion
• Corporate spending and expansion
• Political uncertainty
“Wait and See” attitude pervasive
• “W it d S ” ttit d i
4
Percent Growth in Real GDP Since 1990
y j
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
8.0 7.3
7.5
7.0 6.7
6.4
6.2 6.2
6.0
60 5.5
5.3
5.1
5.0 4.7
4.5
4.8 4.8
4.5
4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8
4.2 4.1
3.9 4
4.0 3.3 3.4 3.4
3.4 3.5 3.6
3.5
3.8
3.3
3 2.9 3.1 3 30
3.0 30
3.0
3.0 2.6
2.3
2.7 2.7
2.4
2.7
2.5 2.6
2.7
2.2
1.9
1.9 2 2.1 2.1
2.0 1.6
1.3
1.5
1.1 1.2 1.2
1 1 0.9
1.0 0.5
0.7 0.8
0.2 0.1
0
0.0
‐0.2
‐1.0 ‐0.5 ‐0.5
‐1.4
20
‐2.0 ‐2
‐3.0 ‐3
‐4.0
1Q1990
0
1Q1991
2
1Q1992
3
1Q1993
1Q1994
4
1Q1995
1Q1996
6
1Q1997
7
8
1Q1998
1Q1999
9
1Q2000
0
1Q2001
2
1Q2002
1Q2003
3
1Q2004
4
1Q2005
6
1Q2006
1Q2007
7
1Q2008
8
5
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
1.0
2.0
20
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
-86
Jan-
-86
Jul-
-87
Jan-
-87
Jul-
-88
Jan-
g
-88
Jul-
-89
Jan-
-89
Jul-
-90
Jan-
-90
Jul-
-91
Jan-
-91
Jul-
-92
Jan-
-92
Jul-
-93
Jan-
-93
Jul-
-94
Jan-
-94
Jul-
-95
Jan-
-95
Jul-
-96
Jan-
-96
Jul-
-97
Jan-
-97
Jul-
-98
Jan-
-98
Jul-
-99
Jan-
-99
Jul-
-00
Jan-
-00
Jul-
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-01
Jan-
-01
Jul-
-02
Jan-
Yr/Yr Rate of Change in the Monthly Index, US Urban, All Items -02
Jul-
-03
Jan-
-03
Jul-
-04
Jan-
-04
Jul-
-05
Jan-
-05
Jul-
-06
Jan-
-06
Jul-
-07
Jan-
6
-07
Jul-
Targeted Overall Inflation Rate
-08
Jan-
-08
Jul-
-09
Jan-
ollars per Gall
Do lon
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
3.80
4.00
4.20
4.40
1 40
2 20
/3/00
1/
/3/00
4/
/3/00
7/
/3/00
10/
/3/01
1/
/3/01
4/
/3/01
7/
/3/01
10/
/3/02
1/
/3/02
4/
/3/02
7/
/3/02
10/
/3/03
1/
/3/03
4/
/3/03
7/
/3/03
10/
/3/04
1/
/3/04
4/
/3/04
7/
/3/04
10/
/3/05
1/
Regular Grade
/3/05
4/
/3/05
7/
Source: Energy Information Administration
/3/05
10/
/3/06
1/
/3/06
4/
/3/06
7/
/3/06
10/
/3/07
1/
/3/07
4/
/3/07
7/
U. S. Weekly Retail Gas Prices
/3/07
10/
/3/08
1/
/3/08
4/
/3/08
7/
7
y
We Finally Got There !!
8
What to Expect
• Fed to stop cutting interest rates
Food will continue to increase; gas prices
• Food will continue to increase; gas prices
may decline for a while
• Look for a federal bailout of the banks
and financial institutions
• Rise in unemployment rate
“ fl ” high inflation,
• 2008‐2009: “Stagflation” ‐ h h fl
low economic growth, job losses –
without high interest rates
9
Texas and Local
Economy
• Running Ahead of US Economy
• Employment Steady Increase
• Low Unemployment
• Personal Income Growth
• Population Growth
• Housing market still relatively strong
10
Job-
Top 10 Job-Creating States in 2007
Thousands of jobs created December 2006 to December 2007
300
236 90
236.90
250
200
150
100 78.00
67.60 67.10
44.90 41.60 31.40
50 36.20 35.40
25.00
0
arolina
Illinois
uisiana
ington
Colorado
eorgia
abama
Utah
Texas
w York
North
New
Ge
N
Ala
Ca
Lou
Washi
11
Source: BLS
Job-
Top 10 Job-Creating States
First Half of 2008
Thousands of jobs created January 2008 to June 2008
125
106 1
106.1
100
75
50 42 2
42.2
34.7
28.5
25 22.0 22.0 20.2 19.5
19.8 17.9
0
Massachuset
ginia
onsin
aska
Illinois
gton
Minnesota
rado
Texas
land
Te
Ala
Washing
Virg
Color
Maryl
Wisco
ts
12
Source: BLS
If Texas Was A Nation
1 United States 8 Canada
2 Japan 9 Spain
3 Germany
3 Germany 10 Brazil
10 Brazil
4 China 11 TEXAS
5 United Kingdom 12 Russia
6 France 13 India
7 Italy
Source: World Bank and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
‐2.0
20
‐1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Jan‐00
Apr‐00
Jul‐00
Oct‐00
Jan‐01
Apr‐01
R
Jul‐01
Oct‐01
Jan‐02
Apr‐02
Jul‐02
f
Oct‐02
Jan‐03
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐03
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Oct‐04
Texas
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Rates for US and T
Oct‐05
Source: BLS, Texas Workforce Commission
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
US
Jul‐06
d Texas
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Annual Employment Growth
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
14
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
‐6.00
‐4.00
‐2.00
0.00
2.00
2 00
4.00
6.00
Jan‐00
Apr‐00
Jul‐00
Oct‐00
Jan‐01
Apr‐01
Jul‐01
Oct‐01
Jan‐02
Apr‐02
Jul‐02
Oct‐02
Jan‐03
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐03
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Navarro County
Navarro County
Oct‐04
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Source: BLS, Texas Workforce Commission
and Navarro County
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
US
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Employment Growth Rates for US, Texas
15
Jan‐08
Texas
Apr‐08
Jul‐08
The Texas Outlook for 2008+
• US job growth flat to negative
• Texas will more than double the national job
growth rate
g
• Texas housing markets g y g
generally strong but
“spotty”
• Mortgage interest rates unlikely to change much,
but lower if anything
• Fall in overall residential demand: tighter credit,
buying,
less investment buying less second home
Total HH Home Mortgage Borrowing
1,100
1,031
$0.5 trillion in home mortgages between 1972 and 1979; 990
1,000
$1.5 trillion in home mortgages between 1980 and 1989; 941
900 $2 12 trillion in home mortgages between 1990 and 1999;
$2.12 trillion in home mortgages between 1990 and 1999; 857
800 $6.1 trillion in home mortgages between 2000 and 2007
708
700 669
600
$Billions
507
500
380 386
400
321
302
300
222 216 225
199 199 206 216
200 182 174 171
157 167 154
127
106 117 105
86 90
100 58 67
47
34 40 37 40
0
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
1Q2008
Source: Federal Reserve, Flow of Funds, D-2, 6/5/2008 17
Current Residential
Finance Conditions
• 65% of US owner-occupied homes have a mortgage
(64% in Texas) – 76% fixed-rate
• About 7.0 million, 12% of all mortgages, are subprime
loans
• 75 percent of all subprime loans originated since 2003
• About half of all subprime loans are ARMs
• Total home equity is less than 50%, and as many as 10%
g q y
of homeowners have negative equity
• Falling home prices in key areas is the key factor to
defaults and foreclosures
18
Banks Are Running Low on Capital
19
Percent of Foreclosures Started
by Type of Loan 2Q2008
Percent of Percent of
Outstanding F
O t t di l
Foreclosures
Type of Loan Loans Started
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey, June 30,2008, Estimates by Real Estate Center20
10.0
11 0
11.0
12.0
13.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
80
8.0
9.0
1Q1998
2Q1998
3Q1998
4Q1998
1Q1999
2Q1999
3Q1999
4Q1999
1Q2000
2Q2000
3Q2000
4Q2000
1Q2001
2Q2001
3Q2001
4Q2001
1Q2002
2Q2002
3Q2002
4Q2002
1Q2003
Prime Loans
2Q2003
3Q2003
4Q2003
1Q2004
2Q2004
3Q2004
4Q2004
1Q2005
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey 2Q2005
3Q2005
4Q2005
1Q2006
All Loans
at the End of the Quarter
2Q2006
3Q2006
4Q2006
US Mortgages in Foreclosure
Subprime Loans
1Q2007
2Q2007
3Q2007
4Q2007
1Q2008
2.75
11.81
1.42
2Q2008
0.0
1.0
2.0
30
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
80
8.0
8
1Q1998
8
2Q1998
8
3Q1998
8
4Q1998
9
1Q1999
9
2Q1999
9
3Q1999
9
4Q1999
0
1Q2000
0
2Q2000
0
3Q2000
0
4Q2000
1
1Q2001
1
2Q2001
1
3Q2001
1
4Q2001
2
1Q2002
2
2Q2002
2
3Q2002
2
4Q2002
3
1Q2003
3
2Q2003
3
3Q2003
3
4Q2003
4
1Q2004
4
2Q2004
Q
Prime Loans
4
3Q2004
4
4Q2004
5
1Q2005
Subprime Loans
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey 5
2Q2005
5
3Q2005
5
4Q2005
at the End of the Quarter
6
1Q2006
All Loans
6
2Q2006
6
3Q2006
Texas Mortgages in Foreclosure
6
4Q2006
7
1Q2007
7
2Q2007
7
3Q2007
7
4Q2007
8
1Q2008
1.44
5.88
8
2Q2008
0.65
Total Properties with a Delinquency or
Foreclosure Filing 1H2008
• US 1,448,308, up 61%
• Texas 70,180, up 1.0%
, , p
– California 380,777, up 123%
– Florida 205,858, up 101%
Ohio 71,613, up 18%
– Ohio 71,613, up 18%
– Michigan 66,283, up 19%
Arizona 65,437, up 138%
– Arizona 65 437 up 138%
– Nevada 44,911, up 88%
Virginia 29,581, up 299%
– Virginia 29 581 up 299%
Source: RealtyTrac, Inc.
Data include all default, delinquency and foreclosure filings reported.
y g
Monthly Foreclosure Filings
100,000
Texas foreclosures have been very moderate
90,000 compared to the US trend.
US f
foreclosures are up 2 % YTD2008
l 27% YTD2008; US
80,000 Texas is down 18% YTD2008.
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
20 000
Texas
10,000
0
Jun‐05
Jun‐06
Jun‐07
Jun‐08
Aug‐05
Oct‐05
Dec‐05
Feb‐06
Apr‐06
Aug‐06
Oct‐06
Dec‐06
Feb‐07
Apr‐07
Aug‐07
Oct‐07
Dec‐07
Feb‐08
Apr‐08
Source: RealtyTrac, Inc.
Data include Notices of Trustee Sales plus Notices of Foreclosure Sale
The US Housing Market
The “Un‐Magnificent Six”:
California
Florida
Nevada
Arizona
Ohio
Ohio
Michigan
25
Job-
Bottom 10 Job-Creating States
First Half of 2008
Thousands of jobs lost January 2008 to June 2008
0
‐10.8
‐32.7 ‐31.9 ‐19.4
‐50 ‐39.8 ‐35.3
‐53.6
‐80.2 ‐79.4
‐100
‐150
‐200
‐250 ‐242.3
California
ndiana
Georgia
arolina
Nevada
Florida
ichigan
nessee
w York
Arizona
New
In
Tenn
North Ca
F
N
A
G
Mi
26
Source: BLS
US, Texas, California and Florida
pp Q
Appreciation Rates 2Q2008
30%
25%
Florida
20%
15%
10%
5%
US
0%
Texas
-5%
5%
-10%
US = -4.8%
-15%
Texas = +2.2% California
-20%
California = -24.5%
-25% Florida = -19.3%
30%
-30%
1Q1992
3Q1992
1Q1993
3Q1993
1Q1994
3Q1994
1Q1995
3Q1995
1Q1996
3Q1996
1Q1997
3Q1997
1Q1998
3Q1998
1Q1999
3Q1999
1Q2000
3Q2000
1Q2001
3Q2001
1Q2002
3Q2002
1Q2003
3Q2003
1Q2004
3Q2004
1Q2005
3Q2005
1Q2006
3Q2006
1Q2007
3Q2007
1Q2008
27
Source: OFHEO, Purchase Only Index Change Year over Year
2006-
Housing Fall Off 2006-08 . . .
• Unlike past housing downturns, this one not preceded
by rising interest rates, unemployment or recession
• Causes:
End f “E C dit Easy Terms”
– E d of “Easy Credit – E T ”
– Excess building in fast growing markets
Slowdown i appreciation – d li i h
– Sl d in i ti i
declining home prices
– Falling affordability leading to lower user demand
– Fall off of speculative building and “investor” market
28
(000s)
1,000
2,000
3,000
4 000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
0
Jan-68
Jan-69
Jan-70
Jan-71
Jan-72
Jan-73
Jan-74
Jan-75
Jan-76
Jan-77
Jan-78
Jan-79
Jan-80
Jan-81
Jan-82
Jan-83
Jan-84
Jan-85
Jan-86
Jan-87
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
E i ti
Jan-95
Sources: US Census Bureau , NAR, NAHB, NBER
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Existing SF S l
New SF Sales
Jan-01
Sales
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
New and Existing SF Home Sales U.S.
Jan-06
29
Jan-07
Jan-08
$250,000
US Median Home Prices Since 1990
$225,000 National House
Price Bubble
$200,000
Prices in 2001 stayed above trend,
$175,000
despite a national recession.
$150,000
$125,000
The national housing boom started
dJ 2002 i
around January 2002 creating a
house price bubble that peaked at
$100,000
around $230,000 in 2006
$75,000
$50,000
0
Jan-90
1
Jan-91
Jan-92
2
3
Jan-93
Jan-94
4
5
Jan-95
Jan-96
6
Jan-97
7
Jan-98
8
Jan-99
9
0
Jan-00
Jan-01
1
2
Jan-02
3
Jan-03
Jan-04
4
Jan-05
5
6
Jan-06
7
Jan-07
8
Jan-08
Jan-09
9
Jul-90
0
1
Jul-91
Jul-92
2
3
Jul-93
4
Jul-94
5
Jul-95
6
Jul-96
Jul-97
7
Jul-98
8
9
Jul-99
Jul-00
0
1
Jul-01
2
Jul-02
3
Jul-03
4
Jul-04
5
Jul-05
6
Jul-06
7
Jul-07
Jul-08
8
30
Source: NAR, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
(000)
0
Jan 1990
0
Jul 1990
1
Jan 1991
1
Jul 1991
2
Jan 1992
2
Jul 1992
3
Jan 1993
3
Jul 1993
4
Jan 1994
4
Jul 1994
5
Jan 1995
5
Jul 1995
12-
6
Jan 1996
6
Jul 1996
7
Jan 1997
7
Jul 1997
8
Jan 1998
8
Jul 1998
9
Jan 1999
9
Jul 1999
0
Jan 2000
0
Jul 2000
1
Jan 2001
1
Jul 2001
12-Month Moving Average
2
Jan 2002
2
Jul 2002
Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
3
Jan 2003
3
Jul 2003
4
Jan 2004
4
Jul 2004
5
Jan 2005
5
Jul 2005
US SF Housing Permits
6
Jan 2006
6
Jul 2006
7
Jan 2007
7
Jul 2007
8
Jan 2008
8
Jul 2008
31
Inventory of New SF Homes For Sale
(000s Units) Months Inventory
820 12
780 11.5
Excess units plus new construction in 2008 at
740 11
annual sales of around 600,000 will take
700 10.5
several years to get back to balance.
several years to get back to balance
660 10
620 9.5
580 9
540 8.5
500 8
460 7.5
420 7
380 6
6.5
340 6
300 5.5
260 5
220 4.5
180 4
140 3.5
100 3
Feb-01
Jun-01
Feb-02
Jun-02
Feb-03
Jun-03
Feb-04
Jun-04
Feb-05
Jun-05
Feb-06
Jun-06
Feb-07
Jun-07
Feb-08
Jul-00
Jan-00
Mar-00
Oct-00
Dec-00
Oct-01
Dec-01
Oct-02
Dec-02
Oct-03
Dec-03
Oct-04
Dec-04
Oct-05
Dec-05
Oct-06
Dec-06
Oct-07
Dec-07
May-00
Apr-01
Aug-01
Apr-02
Aug-02
Apr-03
Aug-03
Apr-04
Aug-04
Apr-05
Aug-05
Apr-06
Aug-06
Apr-07
Aug-07
Apr-08
32
Source: US Census Bureau, NAHB
Texas Housing
Market
33
Texas Home Sales
2008 appears headed toward 2003-2004 levels
35,000
2006
30,000
2007
25,000
2005
2004
20,000 2003
2008
15,000
15 000
YTD 2008 sales down 14.5%
10,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
34
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Texas Home Sales
12- Mo ing A erage
12-Month Moving Average
26,000
24,000
Sales “Bubble”
Sales Bubble
22,000 Reverting to
long‐term trend
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
96
96
97
97
98
98
99
99
00
00
01
01
02
02
03
03
04
04
05
05
06
06
07
07
08
08
09
Jan‐9
Jul‐9
Jan‐9
Jul‐9
Jan‐9
Jul‐9
Jan‐9
Jul‐9
Jan‐0
Jul‐0
Jan‐0
Jul‐0
Jan‐0
Jul‐0
Jan‐0
Jul‐0
Jan‐0
Jul‐0
Jan‐0
Jul‐0
Jan‐0
Jul‐0
Jan‐0
Jul‐0
Jan‐0
Jul‐0
Jan‐0
Source: Real Estate Center 35
Annual Texas Home Sales
2003 Trend
310,000
310 000
290,000 2008 = 262,000 5% less at 2003 Trend 290,003
270,000
2008 = 240,000 if equal to 2004, down 12% 266,519
272,177
261,939
271,615
2009 = 272 000 (equal to 2007)
2009 = 272,000 (equal to 2007)
250,000 240,870
230,000 216,099
210,000 196,401
201,528
188,738
190,000 184,056
170,638
170,000
146,395
146 395
150,000
150 000 138,123
130,000 116,604
122,134121,823
107,107
110,000 100,047 99,619
90,000
70,000
,
50,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008p
2009p
36
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Texas Median Home Prices
2003 Trend
$160,000
$160 000 154,585
Median Home Price of $154,600 by 2010 equals a 150,118
$150,000 147,500 145,650
4.8% increase over 2007. 143,100
$140,000 Annual average increase of 4.4% 1990‐2007; 136,800
Annual increases of ‐1.3% in 2008 and 3% in 2009 130,100
$130,000 127,700
and 2010. 124,500
119,400
$120,000
112,100
$110,000
100,900
$100,000 2003 trend line 96,200
90,600
$90,000
$90 000 86,400
81,600
80,000
$80,000 75,200
78,200
71,200
68,500 68,100
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
p
2008p
2009p
p
2010p
p
1989
9
1990
0
1991
1992
2
3
1993
4
1994
1995
5
1996
6
7
1997
1998
8
1999
9
0
2000
2001
2002
2
2003
3
2004
4
2005
5
2006
6
2007
7
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
,
4,000
5,000
6 000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11 000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
Jan-95
Apr-95
Jul-95
Oct-95
Jan-96
Apr-96
Jul-96
Oct-96
Jan-97
Apr-97
Jul-97
Oct-97
Jan-98
Apr-98
12-
Jul-98
Oct-98
2008 YTD down 35%
Jan-99
Apr-99
Jul-99
Oct-99
Jan-00
Apr-00
Jul-00
Oct-00
Jan-01
Apr-01
Jul-01
Oct-01
Jan-02
Apr-02
Jul-02
Oct-02
Jan-03
Apr-03
2003 Trend line has very tight fit with actual.
Jul-03
Oct-03
12-Month Moving Average
Jan-04
A construction “bubble” from 2004 to mid-2006.
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Source: US Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M
Jul-05
Texas SF Permits
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
38
Jan-08
Apr-08
Texas SFD Building Permits
180,000
New home construction will be down 166,203
163,032
160,000
about 24%, back to 1997‐1998 levels,
, , 151,384
140,000 or lower 137,493
‐31.3%
122,913
120,000 111 915
111,915
,
112,040
108,613
101,848
99,831
100,000 -24%
83,103 82,180 85,000
80 000
80,000
70,355 70,418
62,672
60,000 54,798
41,654
41 654
38,141
40,000
20,000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008p
39
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Single-
Navarro County Single-Family
Building Permits
140
120
120
103
100
88
80
70 69
66 66
62
60
51
47
41 40 41
40 35 34
32
37
35
30 31
28
23 22 22
20 19
20 17
14
0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: Census Bureau, Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University
Population Growth
2007-
US Population Growth 2007-2012
42
Source: Global Insight, Inc.
2000 – 2007 States with
Population Increases > 1 million
Number Percent
Texas 3,052,581 14.6%
California
C lif i 2 681 560
2,681,560 7.9%
7 9%
Florida 2,268,419 14.2%
Georgia 1,357,934 16.6%
Arizona 1 208 140
1,208,140 23 5%
23.5%
North Carolina 1,014,541 12.6%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Table 2. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change for the United States, Regions, States and Puerto Rico:
April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2007 (NST‐EST 2007‐02), December 27, 2007
2000-
Top 18 Growth MSAs 2000-2007
1,100,000
1 100 000
1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
600 000
996,463
947,907
900,276
887,678
500,000
803,100
400,000
8
300,000
484,631
472,112
459,482
442,901
405,515
385,489
375,572
332,315
319,492
311,341
200,000
282,427
71,266
70,712
00,000
100,000
27
27
3
3
0
44
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Projected Texas Population
(000s)
45 000
45,000
2000 - 2030
At 50% 1990-2000 rate of immigration
At 2000-2004 rate of immigration 41,118
40,000 At 100% 1990-2000 rate of immigration
36,682
36,333
Between 9 and 18 million more
35,000
residents between 2005 and 2030
residents between 2005 and 2030 32,737
33,158
33 158
31,831
30,253
29,897
30,000 29,214
28,006
27,581
26,059 26,157
25,106
25,000 23,904
24,331
22,929
20,952
20,000
15,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
...
2010
2010
2010
2015
2015
2015
2020
2020
2020
2025
2025
2025
2030
2030
2030
45
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Texas State Demographer
Averaging the projections results in an
increase of 13 6 million p pl b 2030
i f 13.6 illi people by 2030.
Over the next 25 years, equivalent of adding:
12- Dallas-
another 12-county Dallas-Ft.
area
Worth metropolitan area, plus
10-
another 10-county Houston
metropolitan area, plus
8-
another 8-county San Antonio
metropolitan area, plus
h C Ch i i
another Corpus Christi
46
Central Texas Triangle
47
Navarro County Population
85,000
At 50% 1990-2000 rate of immigration 80,446
80,000 At 100% 1990-2000 rate of immigration
At 2000-2004 rate o immigration
t 000 00 ate of g at o
75,000
71,458
70,000
About 21,500 more people
65,000 between 2005 and 2030 63,380
60,000
55,000
49,396
49 396
50 000
50,000 48,313
45,124
45,000
42,143
40,000
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2010
2010
2010
2015
2015
2015
2020
2020
2020
2025
2025
2025
2030
2030
2030
48
Source: US Census Bureau, Texas State Data Center and Demographer, 50%, 100% and 2000-2004 immigration scenarios , respectively
E i d H i O tl k
2008 Economic and Housing Outlook
September 17, 2008
D J PG i
Dr. James P. Gaines
Research Economist
Real Estate Center
Real Estate Center
at Texas A&M University