110
115
100
Jan-95 Jun-95 Nov-95 Apr-96 Sep-96 Feb-97 Jul-97 Dec-97 May-98 Oct-98 Mar-99 Aug-99 Jan-00 Jun-00 Nov-00 Apr-01 Sep-01 Feb-02 Jul-02 Dec-02 May-03 Oct-03 Mar-04 Aug-04 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08
(1987=100)
105
120
125
130
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
105
125
145
25
45
65
85
Source: The Conference Board (1985=100)
38
Aug-… Oct-00 Dec-00 Feb-01 Apr-01 Jun-01 Aug-… Oct-01 Dec-01 Feb-02 Apr-02 Jun-02 Aug-… Oct-02 Dec-02 Feb-03 Apr-03 Jun-03 Aug-… Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-… Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-… Oct-05 Dec-05 Feb-06 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-… Oct-06 Dec-06 Feb-07 Apr-07 Jun-07 Aug-… Oct-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-… Oct-08 Dec-08
13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3
Source: Bureau of Business Analysis
Jan‐80 Jul‐80 Jan‐81 Jul‐81 Jan‐82 Jul‐82 Jan‐83 Jul‐83 Jan‐84 Jul‐84 Jan‐85 Jul‐85 Jan‐86 Jul‐86 Jan‐87 Jul‐87 Jan‐88 Jul‐88 Jan‐89 Jul‐89 Jan‐90 Jul‐90 Jan‐91 Jul‐91 Jan‐92 Jul‐92 Jan‐93 Jul‐93 Jan‐94 Jul‐94 Jan‐95 Jul‐95 Jan‐96 Jul‐96 Jan‐97 Jul‐97 Jan‐98 Jul‐98 Jan‐99 Jul‐99 Jan‐00 Jul‐00 Jan‐01 Jul‐01 Jan‐02 Jul‐02 Jan‐03 Jul‐03 Jan‐04 Jul‐04 Jan‐05 Jul‐05 Jan‐06 Jul‐06 Jan‐07 Jul‐07 Jan‐08 Jul‐08
Percent of Disposable Income
11
10
12
13
14
15
Source: Federal Reserve Board
1Q1980 3Q1980 1Q1981 3Q1981 1Q1982 3Q1982 1Q1983 3Q1983 1Q1984 3Q1984 1Q1985 3Q1985 1Q1986 3Q1986 1Q1987 3Q1987 1Q1988 3Q1988 1Q1989 3Q1989 1Q1990 3Q1990 1Q1991 3Q1991 1Q1992 3Q1992 1Q1993 3Q1993 1Q1994 3Q1994 1Q1995 3Q1995 1Q1996 3Q1996 1Q1997 3Q1997 1Q1998 3Q1998 1Q1999 3Q1999 1Q2000 3Q2000 1Q2001 3Q2001 1Q2002 3Q2002 1Q2003 3Q2003 1Q2004 3Q2004 1Q2005 3Q2005 1Q2006 3Q2006 1Q2007 3Q2007 1Q2008 2Q2008 1Q2009
$1,200
$1,500
$1,800
$2,100
$2,400
$300
$600
$900
$0 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Real or Deflated Nominal
$2,400 $2,100 $1,800
2002 Real or Deflated 2003 2004 $215 $240 $1,097 13% 5,882 7,283 $273 $1,274 16% 8,073
Nominal 2006 2005 $307 $1,483 16% 8368 $364 $1,825 23% 8,215
2007 $423 $2,190 20% 7,349
2008 $446 $2,366 NS 8% 5,893
Real
$1,500 $1,200 $900 $600 $300 $0 1966 1968
Nominal $974 Increase Volume
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
$1,000 850 $800 702 $600 475 $400 497 475 500 450 501 566 600
$200
$0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
12
15
18
0
Jan-78 Jan-79 Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08
Fed Funds Effective US Treasury- 10 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate Three Month Financial Commercial Paper
3
6
9
Source: Federal Reserve Bank
5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: US Census Bureau
4.0
3.1
3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 ‐1.0 ‐2.0 ‐3.0 ‐4.0
2007 2008
2.0 1.3
2.0
‐3.4
2009 2010 2011
Source: Global Insight (Nov. 08) and Merrill‐Lynch (Feb. 09)
Jan 12
Jan 11
Jan 10 YOU ARE HERE
Jan 09
Jan 08
Dollars per acre
2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200
Source: Real Estate Center Mays Business School Texas A&M University
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$0 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Real or Deflated Nominal
Dollars per acre
2,900
2,400
1,900
1,400
Fitted 92-03 Observed
900
400
Source: Real Estate Center Mays Business School Texas A&M University
Dollars per acre
2,900
$775 per acre difference 33 Percent
2,400
1,900
1,400
Fitted 92-03 Observed
900
400
Source: Real Estate Center Mays Business School Texas A&M University
2,500
2,271 2,012
2,312
2007
1,855 1,641
2008
2009
2,000
1,597
1,500
1,246 1,226
1,000
739
500
0
Source: Real Estate Center Mays Business School Texas A&M University
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