$0
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
$1,500
$1,800
$2,100
$2,400
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
Real or Deflated
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
Nominal
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
$2,400
$2,100
2002 Real or Deflated
2003 2004 Nominal 2006
2005 2007 2008
$1,800
Real $215 $240 $273 $307 $364 $424 $445
$1,500
Nominal $974 $1,097 $1,274 $1,483 $1,825 $2,190 $2,348 NS
$1,200
Increase 13% 16% 16% 23% 20% 7%
$900
Volume
$600 5,882 7,283 8,073 8368 8,215 7,588 5,515
$300
$0
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Percent change
Rio Grande Plains (11) 4
Hill Country‐‐North (14) 5
Edwards Plateau‐‐West (9) 7
Crosstimbers (13) 9
Permian‐‐West (4) 10
Brazos (27) 11
Rolling Plains‐‐Central (7) 11
Houston (28) 12
Coastal Prairie‐‐Middle (21) 13
Hill Country‐‐South (17) 14
Texoma (22) 17
Fort Worth Prairie (23) 18
Rolling Plains‐‐North (6) 19
South Plains (3) 23
Panhandle‐‐Central (2) 27
Panhandle‐‐North (1) 65
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1971
Percent
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
5-Year Yield Rate
1989
Year Sold
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
$3,500
$3,000 Real or Deflated Nominal
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
$3,500
$3,000
Real or Deflated Nominal
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
$2,800
$2,600
Real or Deflated Nominal
$2,400
$2,200
$2,000
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Farmland is a great way to play the
commodities boom. It helps to
have a ten-year horizon and an
interest in things like debt-to-pig
ratios.
Source: Forbes Forbes 2008 Investment Guide
December 10, 2007
At year-end 2007, farms -- the latest count shows
that the U.S. has 2,089,790 -- are what Miami condos
and San Diego McMansions were at year-end 2004:
properties so hot that they're likely to have a
meltdown in their future
Source: Barron’s
December 31, 2007
US GULF PORT CORN PRICES
7.75
7.25
6.75
6.25
5.75
5.25
4.75
4.25
3.75
Apr
Sep 2007
Dec
Mar
Nov
Oct
Jan 2008
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Nov
Oct
Feb
Source: USDA ‐ ERS
100 20
96.00
Rent 18
90 Percent Change
85.00 16
79.50 14
80 76.50
78.00
73.00 12
71.00 71.60
Percent
$ / acre
70.00
70 67.50 10
8
60
6
4
50
2
40 0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: USDA - NASS
3,500 20
Price 2,970 18
3,000
Percent Change
2,690 16
2,500 2,390
14
2,110
12
2,000
1,770
Percent
$ / acre
1,590
1,660 10
1,460 1,510
1,500 1,400
8
1,000 6
4
500
2
0 0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: USDA - NASS
$1,000
858
$800
700
600
$600 566
497 500 501
475 475
450
$400
$200
$0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
‐2.0
‐1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
Jan‐00
Apr‐00
Jul‐00
Oct‐00
Jan‐01
Apr‐01
Jul‐01
Oct‐01
Jan‐02
Apr‐02
Jul‐02
Oct‐02
Jan‐03
Apr‐03
Jul‐03
Oct‐03
Jan‐04
Apr‐04
Jul‐04
Oct‐04
Texas
Jan‐05
Apr‐05
Source: BLS, Texas Workforce Commission
Jul‐05
Oct‐05
Jan‐06
Apr‐06
US
Jul‐06
Oct‐06
Jan‐07
Apr‐07
Jul‐07
Oct‐07
Jan‐08
Apr‐08
Thousands of jobs created January 2008 to June 2008
125
106.1
100
75
50
42.2
34.7
28.5
25 22.0 22.0 20.2 19.8 19.5 17.9
0
Wisconsin
Alaska
Texas
Washington
Colorado
Maryland
Massachusetts
Illinois
Minnesota
Virginia
Source: BLS
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: US Census Bureau
3.5
3.1
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.0 1.7
1.5 1.3
1.0
0.5
0.0
‐0.5
‐1.0
‐1.0
‐1.5
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Global Insight
November 2008
Dollars per acre
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Source: Real Estate Center
Mays Business School
Texas A&M University
$11,000
$10,000
$9,000
Real or Deflated Nominal
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
Real or Deflated
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
Nominal
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
$0
$300
$600
$900
$1,200
$1,500
$1,800
$2,100
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
Real or Deflated
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
Nominal
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
Real or Deflated
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
Nominal
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
Real or Deflated
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
Nominal
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Dollars per acre
2,900
2,400
1,900
1,400
Fitted 92-03
Observed
900
400
Source: Real Estate Center
Mays Business School
Texas A&M University
Dollars per acre
2,900
2,400
1,900
1,400
Fitted 92-03 $714 per acre difference
Observed 33 Percent
900
400
Source: Real Estate Center
Mays Business School
Texas A&M University
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
(1987=100)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Source: The Conference Board (1985=100)
Source: Bureau of Business Analysis
Households starting to lower debt obligations
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Banks Have Little to No Capital
49
TEXAS RURAL LAND VALUES
Dollars per horse Dollars per acre
2,500
110,000
2 Year Lagged
100,000
Correlation -- 91.5
2,000
90,000
80,000
70,000 1,500
Keeneland Yearlings Texas Land
60,000
50,000
1,000
40,000
30,000
500
20,000
10,000
0 0
Source: Real Estate Center
Mays Business School
Texas A&M University
TEXAS RURAL LAND VALUES
% Change Dollars per acre
20 2,400
18 Change from 2007 2,380
16 2008 Price
2,360
14
2,340
12
2,320
10
2,300
8
2,280
6
4 2,260
Source: Real Estate Center
Mays Business School
Texas A&M University
TEXAS RURAL LAND VOLUME OF SALES
# of Sales
3,000
2,500
2007 2008
2,358 2,400
2,059
2,000
1,828
1,641
1,500
1,189
1,109
1,000
519
500
0
Source: Real Estate Center
Mays Business School
Texas A&M University
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