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					Baseball, like hockey, is a Money Line sport.         FOR OUR PURPOSES WE ARE ONL  Y
What that means is there is no point spread           BETTING THE MONEY LINE SO THERE
involved like you have in basketball and football.
                                                      IS NO SPREAD INVOLVED. IF YOUR
There is a ‘spread’ if you bet games on the
Run Line, but for our purposes we will only           TEAM WINS, THEY WIN THE BET.
be betting Money Line bets. This might be
a bit confusing for some, so let me give an           ***For the MLB System we have a radical
example.                                              departure from our normal betting strategies.
                                                      First, we are less concerned with Winning %,
You might see a game with a line like this:           and more concerned with Units Won. That’s


 Team                         Money Line             Run Line             Total
 New York Yankees                -115                -1.5 +160           9.5 -110
 Boston Red Sox                 +105                 +1.5 -180           9.5 -110


In this example, the Yankees are favored. On          for a couple of reasons. There is no point
the Money Line they are -115; this means you          spread involved. And we do wager frequently
have to wager $115 to win $100. If you bet            on Underdogs, so you can have a lower
a game on the Money Line, the team only has           winning % (in fact you can have a below 50%
to win the game. It doesn’t matter by how             winning %) and still do quite well betting on
much they win by, 1 run or 10 runs, it doesn’t        baseball. The term ‘Units
matter – your bet still wins.

On the flip side, the Red Sox are +105. This
means you would bet $100 to win $105 on
Boston. And again, they only have to win the
game by a run.

If we were going to use the Run Line, that’s
where a point spread comes into play. You
see the Yankees are -1.5 runs, so they would
have to win by 2 runs or more to win a bet
on New York. Conversely, the Red Sox are
getting 1.5 runs so if they lost by 1 run a bet
on Boston would still be a winner. The total
means the total runs that will be scored in
the game.
Won’ is explained this way: if you are betting   example you can win only 41% of your games
$100 a game, and you are +10 units, then         and still make a profit! Is it a huge profit?
you would be up $1,000. At Sports Betting        No it’s not, but it’s a profit nonetheless – and
Professor, I recommend using between 2-          41% is a ridiculously low percentage to still
5% of your starting bankroll for each wager.     be able to make money at. In the traditional
Fluctuations in your standard bet will most      point spread sports, the percentage you need
likely cause more damage during the lows         to make money is 52.7%.
than it will help during the highs.
                                                 The second big difference with the MLB
Many bettors like to stay away from money        system compared to my other systems is
line-based sports (such as baseball and          that you will not be doubling up your bets, ala
hockey) due to the extremes in winning           the Bet A, Bet B, Bet C formula. You can get
percentages, but they can be very                some astronomical bet amounts if you were
profitable. Betting on the underdog in           to carry over in this manner with Money Line
money line sports may give you a lower won       bets.
loss record, but the payouts for winners
will be so much higher that your profits will    Baseball is a different animal, and at the end
increase. For example, let’s assume you          of the day the point is to make $. So with the
are a $100 bettor. Say you make 100 bets         Money Line factor, we’re just looking to turn a
on underdogs of +145 (this means you are         profit and we’re not worried so much with win
wagering $100 to win $145). If you lose 59       % due to the fact we’ll be frequently betting
of those bets, that means a loss of $5,900       on Underdogs.
(59 x $100). If you win 41 bets, you would
make a profit of $5,945 (41 x $145).             We have been tracking these statistics for
                                                 the last 15 years in Major League Baseball.
Take a look at that again. In the above          In the course of our research, we have
determined that public opinion plays a large
part in the success of our baseball system.
People LOVE to bet the chalk (or favorites) in
MLB. While betting on favorites might give
you a higher winning percentage you might
not win money - which is the whole point
of this exercise! Betting on teams like the
Yankees will consistently put your odds in the
-200s or higher. If you average odds of -200,
you would need that team to win 67% of the
time to break even. If your average odds go
any higher, you’ll need to win 70% or more to
not lose money!

For example, if you wager on the Yankees
every game of the season (162 games) and
they average -200 odds for the season, you
would need them to win 109 games just to
break even. To turn any substantial profit you
would need them to break the single-season
win record (116). What are the chances of
that happening?

Something else we also discovered was
that in general, home teams are severely
undervalued by the public. The system relies
on whether or not a team is Home or Away,
and what the Betting Percentages are.

 HERE IS THE MLB SYSTEM IN A NUTSHELL:
 Betting %                   Home                      Visitor               Total
 50%                          +103 units              -54 units              +49 units
 40%                          +91 units               -30 units              +61 units
 30%                          +64 units               +13 units              +77 units
 20%                          +20 units               -4 units               +16 units
 15%                          +28 units               -5 units               +23 units


This is how you read the chart. In the           more than 50% of the public action) results
above example, betting the Home Team that        in +103 units for the bettor. This means a
receives less than 30% of the public betting     $100 bettor would be up $10,300!
action (this means the Visiting Team has more
than 70% of the public action) results in +64    The only situation where we want to bet on
units for the bettor. This means a $100          the Visiting Team is when they are receiving
bettor would be up $6,400!                       less than 30% of the betting action. That
                                                            level produces +13 units.
For another example: Betting on the
Home Team that receives less than                           Now I am able to access this
50% of the public betting action                           information through my contacts
(this means the Visiting Team has                          in the offshore sports betting
industry, which I was a part of for over         discipline and patience. There will be days
8 years. But instead of trying to rely on        when no games fit the parameters of the
contacts you don’t have, that’s OK – you         system. That’s OK; we’re not ‘chasers.’
don’t have to.                                   Only this discipline can guarantee profit at
                                                 the end of the season.
If you would like to access this percentage
information yourself, there’s only one website
in the world that I know of that has it:         All the best,
Sports Insights



                                                 Rich Allen
Not only do they have betting percentages
on every game, they also have the quickest
line updates in the world. They’re faster than
Don Best, faster than G & J, and they’re
                                                 Rich Allen
much, much cheaper. This site is a must for
every serious gambler, so even if you get my
picks I’d suggest taking a look.

Click here to take a look at Sports Insights

As I mentioned above, Home Teams are truly
undervalued by the betting public in MLB.

Remember, to be a successful bettor takes

				
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posted:10/31/2011
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