A MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO FACILITATE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE by dfgh4bnmu

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									  A MULTIDISCIPLINARY
APPROACH TO FACILITATE
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE
       CHANGE
A Balanced, Integrated Strategy to Deal with Climate Change



            Our international                       Our domestic
              commitment:                              need:

             Mitigate                                 Adapt

          Avoid 3-4XCO2                      Adapt to 2XCO2

                                                     Impacts
                Climate Change                      on human and
                                                   natural systems



                                                                     Adaptation


                  Emissions                      Socio-economic
                 Greenhouse gases
                     Aerosols
                                                  development
                                    Mitigation
                                                                       Adapted from IPCC 2001
Making Climate Change Science Support Relevant for Adaptation
                 Ouranos
          550 Sherbrooke West
            Montreal, Canada
             www.ouranos.ca

• Development and coordination
  of interdisciplinary, applied and
  user driven research                                       Mission:
• 100+ scientists and professionals
                                                 To provide decision makers with:
  working at same location
  Network of over 250 involved                   •Regional Scale Climate Scenarios
• Access to an extensive network
  of experts/users/stakeholders to
                                                     •Evaluate Impacts of CC
  answer specific questions
                                                 • Support to Adaptation Decisions
• Dedicated supercomputers for
  climate simulations:
    • SGI - 32 CPU & 3 CRAY SX-6
• 5 M$ annual base budget
  (12 M$ with leverage: 2006)
• Important dates:
  2001-02: Announcements, priorities
  2003-04: Projects, 1st symposium
  2005-06: Initial results, 2nd symposium
  2007+: First phase results, projects renewal
Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to CC



MEMBERS


Ministries:
1.   Sécurité publique
2.   Développement durable, Environnement et Parcs
3.   Ressources naturelles et Faune
4.   Affaires municipales et Régions
5.   Transports
6.   Agriculture, Pêcheries et Alimentation
7.   Développement économique, Innovation et Exportation
8.   Santé et Services sociaux



MEMBERS (affiliated)                 (2007   →)

      Manitoba Hydro                                Ecole de Technologie Supérieure



OTHER KEY SCIENTIFIC PARTNERSHIPS
       • Université de Montréal                       • University of Manitoba, Winnipeg

       • Université du Québec à Rimouski              • Centre de ressources en impacts et adaptation au climat et à
       • Université Sherbrooke                        ses changements (CRIACC)
Scientific Program


                                                                                             Impacts and
                                                                Populations, infrastructures Adaptation
                                                                 and Northern ecosystems
Observed and Historical




                                           Climate scenarios
                          Climate                                     Energetic resources
                                                                         (water, wind)
                          simulations
        data




                                                                Forest
                          Hydro-climatic                       resources
                          analysis                                                                Maritime
                                                                                                  environment
                                                                     Water resources and
                                                                       water systems

                                                               Impacts on Society and Environment
                                                                  • Agriculture   • Transportation, infrastructures
                                                                  • Health          and society
                                                                  • Economy       • Natural Environment
Building the capacity to understand, measure, analyse, apply and
respond to a complex multi-disciplinary and highly scientific issue
Programs:                                                Populations, infrastructures and                  Status of project:
North: M. Allard (ULaval)                                     Northern Ecosystems
                                                     • Permafrost (transportation and                      Green: completed
Hydro: R. Roy (HQ)                                     communities)
                                                                                                           Brown: on going
                                                     • Territory access
Forest: D. Houle (MRNF)
Coasts: F. Morneau (MSP)
Water: A. Bourque (Ouranos)
Health: P. Gosselin (INSPQ)                                                    Energetic Resources
                                                                                   (water, wind)
Economy: C. Desjarlais (MRNF)                                         • Peatlands moisture regime
                                                                      • Snow cover analysis
Agriculture: N. Lease (MAPAQ)                                         • Northern hydrological modeling
Ecosystems: L. Vescovi (Ouranos)
Working on many fronts
to facilitate adaptation:                            •
                                                      Forest Resources
                                                         Management and fire
•Producing climate scenarios AND                     •   Productivity
impacts/vulnerability assessments                    •
                                                     •
                                                         Natural disturbances
                                                         Impacts on insects
                                                                                                      Maritime Environment
                                                                                                      • Coastal erosion
•Working with the actors of                          •   Fertility                                    • Economic assessment of
 adaptation to facilitate good                       •   Adaptation hardwood forests                  erosion

 decision making and relevant R&D
                                                                                                        Water Resources and
                                               Impacts on Society and Environment                         Water Systems
   Project management model          • Health: heat waves (phase 2), air quality (phase 2), water
                                                                                                      • Adaptation to water levels
                                       quality, integration and technology transfert
                                                                                                        modifications
                                     • Transportation, Infrastructures and safety : Urban drainage,
      Ouranos          External        phase II, FIMR-2                                               • Water flows variation
     Employees                       • Agriculture : Adaptation, extreme impacts, apple trees,        • Tributaries
          +          Institutional     adaptation in the Saguenay, soya                               • Floods and low water
   Contributed staff      staff      • Economy: Energy demand, Assessment guide                       • Ground water levels
                                     • Tourism: sky and golf                                          • GLOWA
                                     • Ecosystems                                                     • Canadian watersheds and
                                                                                                        hydroelectricity adaptation
Impacts of climate change on northern environments
                                      Warming Permafrost in Salluit                                                                                                               Below 0C degree-days vs iceglace                   cover
                                                                                                                                                                                       Kuujjuaq: Degrés jours de gel vs épaisseur de
                          -5
                                                                                                                                                                                        180
                          -6
                          -7                                                                                                                                                            160
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 y = 1,2845x 0,5856
                          -8                                                                                                                                                            140                        R2 = 0,9301
                          -9




                                                                                                                                                              Épaisseur de glace (cm)
                         -10                                       Increase is snow depth                                                                                               120

                           0
                         -11
                                                                                                         7.0                                                                            100

                                                                                                                                                                                         80
                                                                                                         6.0
                                                                                                                                                                                         60
                                                                                                         5.0
                                                                                                                                                                                         40
                                                                                                         4.0
                          -5                                                                                                                                                             20
                                                                                                         3.0




                                                                                                                T e m p é ra tu re d u s o l (° C )
                                                                                                                                                                                          0
                                                                                                         2.0                                                                                   0         500         1000             1500           2000    2500       3000            3500
P ro fo n d e u r (m )




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cumul des degrés jours sous zéro degré
                                                                                                         1.0
                                                                                                         0.0                                                                            Snow/ice road issues for communities
                         -10
                                                                                                         -1.0                                                                                      Scénarios
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Days degrés-jours de gel Kuujjuak
                                                                                                                                                                                                   Degree SRES desscenarios for àKuujjuaq
                                                                                                         -2.0
                                                                                                                                                                                        4000
                                                                                                         -3.0
                                                                                                                                                                                        3500
                                                                                                         -4.0
                                                                                                                                                      Nb de degrés-Jours de gel (°C)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1971-2000
                         -15                                                                                                                                                            3000
                                                                                                         -5.0                                                                                                                                                                 2010-39
                                                                                                                                                                                        2500
                                                                                                         -6.0                                                                                                                                                         2040-69
                                                                                                                                                                                        2000
                                                                                                         -7.0                                                                                                                                                       2070-99
                                                                                                                                                                                        1500
                                                                                                         -8.0
                         -20                                                                                                                                                            1000

                                                                                                                                                                                         500
                               1987    1989   1991     1993     1995     1997       1999   2001   2003
                                                                                                                                                                                           0
                                                     Temps (août de chaque année)                                                                                                                  oct         nov       déc           janv          févr   mars     avr          mai
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Mois
ULaval et al.
Vulnerability maps: land use/infrastructure planning




  ULaval.
                                            Past climate                     Approach for CC and
                                                                             coastal zones adaptation issues
                                           Future climate                                                                                             zoning
                                                                                                                                                       zoning


                                                                                                                                                      Control
                                  Protecting ice       Freeze-thaw cycle                                                                           odéveloppement
           Sea level rise                                                   Increased storminess
                                 cover reduction           increases
                                                                                                                                                    protection
                                                                                                                                                     protection
                                                                                                                              Choices of
                                                                                                                              Choices of
                                                                                                                              adaptation
                                                                                                                              adaptation
                                                                                                                               scenarios
                                                                                                                               scenarios
                     +T°                                                                                                                            Infrastructures
                                                                                                                                                     retreat
                                                                                                                                                      retreat


 Modification of    submersion                                 Increases in wind                                                                     relocation
                                               alteration
coastal processes                                                intensity and       Increases in frequency
                                              solifluxion
                                                                  wave height          intensity of storms
                                              landslides



3 research groups                          Acceleration of
                                           coastal erosion
        « Climate group »
      Documentation of past
        and future climate             3 study areas
                                                                                                                   S3
                                                                                                                   S2
                                                                                                                   S1
 « Coastal dynamic group »
 Evaluate impacts on different                                                                                      1996
 coastal processes and usage


                                                                                    projection in 2030 of scenarios for areas at risk

                                                                                      S1   Optimistic scenario     Mean rate in last 30 years
     « Users group »
                                                                                                                                                Cost/benefit analysis for
                                                                                                                                                Cost/benefit analysis for
     Estimate impacts and                                                             S2   Moderate scenario
                                                                                                                                                 adaptation, scenarios
     adaptation solutions
                                                                                                                  Max decadal rate since 1930    adaptation, scenarios
                                                                                      S3   Pessimistic scenario         S3 = 2 S2 – S1
The importance of « What to do? »… and « How to do it? »
                         Recommended work structure for all I&A programs

                                           Coordination and integration
                                           Mandate: coordinate and integrate all
                                           program and associated project activities




                                                                                                        Adaptation
       Applied                              Vulnerabilities / Impacts                              Mandate: identification and
     Climatology                                Mandate: multidisciplinary                         assessment of adaptation
 Mandate: provide required                 quantitative/qualitative assessment of                  options with optimal use of
 climate-related information                       risks and opportunities                              available science
      and tools for I&A        Knowledge                                               Knowledge
                                transfer                                                transfer

                                                                                                                Test on pilot
                                                                                                                  sectors

          Framework: Development of knowledge and tools to promote synergies and communication


       REGIONAL CLIMATOLOGY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE


                                                                                                   Decision-making
                                                                                                         and
   =The arrows highlight the importance                                                            implementation
   of moving forward in parallel and through
    linkages
Hydrological scenarios and impacts on water resources and
extreme precipitation

                                                        Climate projections


                                                                                                         Hydrological
                                                                                                           models




                                                                      CRCM flows
                                                                                                                                   2000
                                                                                         Water inflow variations 2050 compared to (2050)
                                                                                                                         La Grande
                                                                                                                               25 scenarios


                                                                                     Hydrogrammes                 Hydrogramme actuel moyen




                                                                    Apports (mm/j)
                                                                                     simulé
                                                                                     simulés (2050)




                           Frigon et Slivitzky, 2006

 Runoff : range of average change in % between future (2041@2070)
 and current (1961@1990) from many CRCM climate projections
Extreme precipitation events: Flooding and safety
          Future maximum 24-hour summer intensities using CRCM

                                                 1961-90 (triangles)
                                                         vs
                                                 2041-2070 (circles)


                                                Numerous impacts:
                                                     Flooding
                                               Landslide and erosion
                                                  water quality…

     Return Period [2041-2070] = 0.67 * Return Period [1961-1990]
 Activation of the water cycle is a behavior confirmed in climate models
Tools to estimate
regional changes
Climate Modeling Required for Regional Adaptation
        Quebec according to a General Circulation Model
    2020s      (available from Environment Canada and a few others)



                   Spatial resolution: 400 km




       Land-Water Contour                             Elevation
Climate Modeling Required for Regional Adaptation
       Quebec according to a Regional Climate Model
             in the future: Ensemble of RCMs
                      (CRMC, Arpège, NARCCAP…)

                 Spatial resolution:200 km
                                     45
                 Spatial resolution: 100km




      Land-Water Contour                         Elevation
High resolution scenarios for optimal adaptation
        Winter (DJF)          Change T2m (Future - Present) °C         Summer (JJA)
                                                             Δ(soil Temperature)
                                                                         CRCM4
                                                                 in CRCM2
                                                                2050s - 1980s




   Change Precipitation (%) Winter              Change Snow Cover (%) Winter




                                                    Source : Équipe Simulations climatiques Ouranos
                                                      Regional scales needed for all

                                              Mitigate                                                                                                                              Adapt
                           the source of the problem                                                                                                                                     to changes
                                                                                                                  ?
                                                                                                        Permafrost Is Already Thawing
                                                                                                                                                     ?       ?
Regulation and Incitatives                                                                                                                               ?
                                                                                                              ?
  • Transportation
                                                        The Carbon Market                                                    Forest
                                                                                                          Adapting theinfrastructure Tasiujak, 28 August 2002
                                                                                                                    Some
                                                                                                                    already affected :
                                                                                                                                                         • Landing strips
  The Forest as a Carbon Sink                                                                                                                            • Buildings
  • Agriculture and Forestry                                                                                •Impacts of drought ?
                                                                                                                   Managing Hydroelectricity
                                                                                                                          Warming-up of
                                                                                                            •Forest fires3?degrees in ten years
                                                                                                                     1 to
                                                                                                                                                                   •New equipments ?
    Industrydrought ?
  • Hydroelectricity
     •Impacts of
                                                            to Mitigate GHG                                 •Risks relateddepth of 10 meters
                                                                                                                      at a to insects ?
                                                                                                                   •32 GW                                                                          ?           ?              Production
     •Forest fires ?                                                                                        •Positive(96% hydraulics)
                                                                                                                      or negative effects on forests                                                                         with existing
           Energy Demand in Québec                                        CO2 Emissions (1996)               productivity (cutting rights permits)?                               Continuous
  • Energy
     •Risks related to insects ?
       %
                         Hydroelectricity has
                                                                                                                   •185 TWh
                                                                                                          Continuous          Coastal Erosion in the Maritimes
                                                                                                            •Sink or sources for GHG mitigation ?
                                                                                                                                                                                                           80 %              equipment ?
                                                                                                                   •sales:
 The •Positive or negative effects oilofforests
       market value ($$$$$)onbefore
                           displaced      Carbon depends on
       productivity (cutting rights permits)?
                           1990 in Québec                   Enviable
                                                                                                                          • Sea level higher by 50 cm in 2050. Discontinuous ?
                                                                                                                                                 Internal market
                                                                                                                   total: •13 MM$
 climate scenarios. The best reference climate scenarios    situation
                                                                                                                            Less                     ice facing
                                                                                                             Discontinuous protection from the demand the           ?
          Validate Wind Power
      •Sink or sources for GHG mitigation ?
 for Canada runs on Ouranos supercomputers.
                                                                                                                      ext.:
                                                                                                                   •worth:
                                                                                                                            coast during winter storms.
                                                                                                                                                3,5 MM$
                                                                                                                             • Storm surge frequencyevolution ? ?
                                                                                                                                                      and amplitude
                                                                                                                             •57 MM$
                                                                                                                               More frequent winter storms ?
                        Production Potential                                                                                 • To                                      Zones Economy
                                                                                                                                                         Southern Quebec where the road network
                                                                                                                   •650 000 km2 resist is expensive and the ocean
                                                                                                                               almost always ends up winning…
                                                                                                                                                                     NO permafrost
                                                                                                                                                                        is threatened by erosion
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Opportunity
                                                                                                                                                                      2xCO2, Smith et al. (2001)                        for external
                    "L'énergie au Québec", Ressources Naturelles Québec
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            sales
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         (displacement of
                   CO2 Emission Sources (1996)
                                                                                                                                                                   Environment – Urban Health                          electricity production
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             based on
                                                                                                                                                                                                                          hydrocarbons)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                ?
                                                                                                                                                           Winter Storm Frequency                                                                 température             36 oC
                                                                                                                                                         in the Northern Hemisphere
                                                                                                                                          100
                                                                           In Québec:                                                                                       12 jours de canicule en France




                                                                                                                              Storms / winter
                                                                                                                                                80
                                                                           Important gains only
                                                                           possible on transportation
                                                                           for "Kyoto" and beyond…
                                                                                                                                                60                          Water Management
                                                                                                                                                                                   + de 10 000 décès
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Montréal (Pointe-aux-Trembles)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          25 oC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Gracieuseté: Hudon et al.
                                                                                                                                                40                                                 •   Lost of beaches...
                                                                                                                                                         Social and                                •                 Economic Issues:
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Perturbed villages
                                                                                                                                                20       Environmental Issues:                     •   Infrastructures•Conflicts between users for the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       and property threatened…
                                                                                                                                                 0        •Health in urban environment             •   Degraded ecosystem in the St-LawrenceChicago
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       water
                                                                                                                                                 1900      1920  1940    1960 1980  2000
                                                                                                                                                                      extremes
                                                                                                                                                          •Impacts ofYear                          •   Fisheries ?    •Agriculture, agri-food,
                                                                                                                                                •Water management
                                                                                                                                      Source: Lambert 1996.                                        •   Tourism ?      •Transportation
                                                                                                                                                            – Water supply                                            •Energy demand profile Canicule
                                                                                                                                                            – Urban drainage
                                                                                                                                                          •Ecosystems and biodiversity             St-Lawrence Valley:
                                                                                                                                                                                                   St-                                                  été 1995
                                                                                                                                                                                                    • Urban environment                                   47
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       5000 décès
                                                                                                                                                                                      1994: "average", for the last 30 years
                                                                                                                                                                                                 • Rural environment                            1999: "extreme", lower by 1 meter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 29
                                                                                                                                                                                                     • Rural environment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      added??
                                                                                                                                                                                        ... and if 1999 was the "average" ... to which "extremes" are added??
   Climate Science is                                                                                                                                                          Water management
                                                                                                                                                                               Link w/ Great Lakes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Through evaporation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Lower level (-1,3m) and
         clearly a                                                                                                                                                             Commercial Shipping
                                                                                                                                                                               Energy production
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Fresh water supply   flow reduction (-40%) to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Used water treatment the St-Lawrence River
                                                                                                                                                                               Fisheries                           Urban drainage
    decision support                                                                                                                                                           Ecosystems, habitats                Underground water


   tool for most users
                                                                               Regional Climate Model                                                                          Tourism and leisure
                                                                                                                                                                               Infrastructures
                                                                                                                                                                               Insurance
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Agriculture
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Water quality
                                                                                                                                                                               Flood control                                                                ??
Towards quantitative information, for decision-makers

  Government                     Scientific reliability
                                                                                  1. Energy profitability:
                                                                                       hydro-wind power
  direction and                  high to very high                                    potential, domestic
                                                                                    and external markets
  actions plans                      2009-2013
                                                                                   2. Regional prosperity
                                                                                       and development:
                                                                                          winter tourism,
  Small scale        Scientific reliability
                                                                                  forestry and waterways

  decisions:          average to high                                                   3. Health, security
 case studies            2004-2008                                                 and risk management:
                                                                 new vectors, heat waves, inter-regional
                                                                insurability, catastrophes,dam security,
                                                                                           coastal erosion
 Determining        Fiabilité scientifique
                                                                              4. Knowledge and identity:
  issues :            weak to average                       development of a francophone scientific pole
  projects                 2001-2003                        of international caliber and new researchers
                                                                         support for Québec government


        Level of          Gvt depts.          Scientific reliability:
      experiences             &               minimum to weak                    1997-2000
       and trials        universities


       University        Air-land-sea       Theoretical and fundamental comprehension
       Research       Processes-Observations
                                               at the basis of our climate knowledge
Sharing tools and addressing impacts at the right scale…




                 : Climate science at the continental scale
                      : I&A involving users/stakeholders
                                    at the relevant scales


www.ouranos.ca                  bourque.alain@ouranos.ca
          Thank you for your attention!

								
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