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A MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH TO FACILITATE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE A Balanced, Integrated Strategy to Deal with Climate Change Our international Our domestic commitment: need: Mitigate Adapt Avoid 3-4XCO2 Adapt to 2XCO2 Impacts Climate Change on human and natural systems Adaptation Emissions Socio-economic Greenhouse gases Aerosols development Mitigation Adapted from IPCC 2001 Making Climate Change Science Support Relevant for Adaptation Ouranos 550 Sherbrooke West Montreal, Canada www.ouranos.ca • Development and coordination of interdisciplinary, applied and user driven research Mission: • 100+ scientists and professionals To provide decision makers with: working at same location Network of over 250 involved •Regional Scale Climate Scenarios • Access to an extensive network of experts/users/stakeholders to •Evaluate Impacts of CC answer specific questions • Support to Adaptation Decisions • Dedicated supercomputers for climate simulations: • SGI - 32 CPU & 3 CRAY SX-6 • 5 M$ annual base budget (12 M$ with leverage: 2006) • Important dates: 2001-02: Announcements, priorities 2003-04: Projects, 1st symposium 2005-06: Initial results, 2nd symposium 2007+: First phase results, projects renewal Consortium on Regional Climatology and Adaptation to CC MEMBERS Ministries: 1. Sécurité publique 2. Développement durable, Environnement et Parcs 3. Ressources naturelles et Faune 4. Affaires municipales et Régions 5. Transports 6. Agriculture, Pêcheries et Alimentation 7. Développement économique, Innovation et Exportation 8. Santé et Services sociaux MEMBERS (affiliated) (2007 →) Manitoba Hydro Ecole de Technologie Supérieure OTHER KEY SCIENTIFIC PARTNERSHIPS • Université de Montréal • University of Manitoba, Winnipeg • Université du Québec à Rimouski • Centre de ressources en impacts et adaptation au climat et à • Université Sherbrooke ses changements (CRIACC) Scientific Program Impacts and Populations, infrastructures Adaptation and Northern ecosystems Observed and Historical Climate scenarios Climate Energetic resources (water, wind) simulations data Forest Hydro-climatic resources analysis Maritime environment Water resources and water systems Impacts on Society and Environment • Agriculture • Transportation, infrastructures • Health and society • Economy • Natural Environment Building the capacity to understand, measure, analyse, apply and respond to a complex multi-disciplinary and highly scientific issue Programs: Populations, infrastructures and Status of project: North: M. Allard (ULaval) Northern Ecosystems • Permafrost (transportation and Green: completed Hydro: R. Roy (HQ) communities) Brown: on going • Territory access Forest: D. Houle (MRNF) Coasts: F. Morneau (MSP) Water: A. Bourque (Ouranos) Health: P. Gosselin (INSPQ) Energetic Resources (water, wind) Economy: C. Desjarlais (MRNF) • Peatlands moisture regime • Snow cover analysis Agriculture: N. Lease (MAPAQ) • Northern hydrological modeling Ecosystems: L. Vescovi (Ouranos) Working on many fronts to facilitate adaptation: • Forest Resources Management and fire •Producing climate scenarios AND • Productivity impacts/vulnerability assessments • • Natural disturbances Impacts on insects Maritime Environment • Coastal erosion •Working with the actors of • Fertility • Economic assessment of adaptation to facilitate good • Adaptation hardwood forests erosion decision making and relevant R&D Water Resources and Impacts on Society and Environment Water Systems Project management model • Health: heat waves (phase 2), air quality (phase 2), water • Adaptation to water levels quality, integration and technology transfert modifications • Transportation, Infrastructures and safety : Urban drainage, Ouranos External phase II, FIMR-2 • Water flows variation Employees • Agriculture : Adaptation, extreme impacts, apple trees, • Tributaries + Institutional adaptation in the Saguenay, soya • Floods and low water Contributed staff staff • Economy: Energy demand, Assessment guide • Ground water levels • Tourism: sky and golf • GLOWA • Ecosystems • Canadian watersheds and hydroelectricity adaptation Impacts of climate change on northern environments Warming Permafrost in Salluit Below 0C degree-days vs iceglace cover Kuujjuaq: Degrés jours de gel vs épaisseur de -5 180 -6 -7 160 y = 1,2845x 0,5856 -8 140 R2 = 0,9301 -9 Épaisseur de glace (cm) -10 Increase is snow depth 120 0 -11 7.0 100 80 6.0 60 5.0 40 4.0 -5 20 3.0 T e m p é ra tu re d u s o l (° C ) 0 2.0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 P ro fo n d e u r (m ) Cumul des degrés jours sous zéro degré 1.0 0.0 Snow/ice road issues for communities -10 -1.0 Scénarios Days degrés-jours de gel Kuujjuak Degree SRES desscenarios for àKuujjuaq -2.0 4000 -3.0 3500 -4.0 Nb de degrés-Jours de gel (°C) 1971-2000 -15 3000 -5.0 2010-39 2500 -6.0 2040-69 2000 -7.0 2070-99 1500 -8.0 -20 1000 500 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 0 Temps (août de chaque année) oct nov déc janv févr mars avr mai Mois ULaval et al. Vulnerability maps: land use/infrastructure planning ULaval. Past climate Approach for CC and coastal zones adaptation issues Future climate zoning zoning Control Protecting ice Freeze-thaw cycle odéveloppement Sea level rise Increased storminess cover reduction increases protection protection Choices of Choices of adaptation adaptation scenarios scenarios +T° Infrastructures retreat retreat Modification of submersion Increases in wind relocation alteration coastal processes intensity and Increases in frequency solifluxion wave height intensity of storms landslides 3 research groups Acceleration of coastal erosion « Climate group » Documentation of past and future climate 3 study areas S3 S2 S1 « Coastal dynamic group » Evaluate impacts on different 1996 coastal processes and usage projection in 2030 of scenarios for areas at risk S1 Optimistic scenario Mean rate in last 30 years « Users group » Cost/benefit analysis for Cost/benefit analysis for Estimate impacts and S2 Moderate scenario adaptation, scenarios adaptation solutions Max decadal rate since 1930 adaptation, scenarios S3 Pessimistic scenario S3 = 2 S2 – S1 The importance of « What to do? »… and « How to do it? » Recommended work structure for all I&A programs Coordination and integration Mandate: coordinate and integrate all program and associated project activities Adaptation Applied Vulnerabilities / Impacts Mandate: identification and Climatology Mandate: multidisciplinary assessment of adaptation Mandate: provide required quantitative/qualitative assessment of options with optimal use of climate-related information risks and opportunities available science and tools for I&A Knowledge Knowledge transfer transfer Test on pilot sectors Framework: Development of knowledge and tools to promote synergies and communication REGIONAL CLIMATOLOGY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE Decision-making and =The arrows highlight the importance implementation of moving forward in parallel and through linkages Hydrological scenarios and impacts on water resources and extreme precipitation Climate projections Hydrological models CRCM flows 2000 Water inflow variations 2050 compared to (2050) La Grande 25 scenarios Hydrogrammes Hydrogramme actuel moyen Apports (mm/j) simulé simulés (2050) Frigon et Slivitzky, 2006 Runoff : range of average change in % between future (2041@2070) and current (1961@1990) from many CRCM climate projections Extreme precipitation events: Flooding and safety Future maximum 24-hour summer intensities using CRCM 1961-90 (triangles) vs 2041-2070 (circles) Numerous impacts: Flooding Landslide and erosion water quality… Return Period [2041-2070] = 0.67 * Return Period [1961-1990] Activation of the water cycle is a behavior confirmed in climate models Tools to estimate regional changes Climate Modeling Required for Regional Adaptation Quebec according to a General Circulation Model 2020s (available from Environment Canada and a few others) Spatial resolution: 400 km Land-Water Contour Elevation Climate Modeling Required for Regional Adaptation Quebec according to a Regional Climate Model in the future: Ensemble of RCMs (CRMC, Arpège, NARCCAP…) Spatial resolution:200 km 45 Spatial resolution: 100km Land-Water Contour Elevation High resolution scenarios for optimal adaptation Winter (DJF) Change T2m (Future - Present) °C Summer (JJA) Δ(soil Temperature) CRCM4 in CRCM2 2050s - 1980s Change Precipitation (%) Winter Change Snow Cover (%) Winter Source : Équipe Simulations climatiques Ouranos Regional scales needed for all Mitigate Adapt the source of the problem to changes ? Permafrost Is Already Thawing ? ? Regulation and Incitatives ? ? • Transportation The Carbon Market Forest Adapting theinfrastructure Tasiujak, 28 August 2002 Some already affected : • Landing strips The Forest as a Carbon Sink • Buildings • Agriculture and Forestry •Impacts of drought ? Managing Hydroelectricity Warming-up of •Forest fires3?degrees in ten years 1 to •New equipments ? Industrydrought ? • Hydroelectricity •Impacts of to Mitigate GHG •Risks relateddepth of 10 meters at a to insects ? •32 GW ? ? Production •Forest fires ? •Positive(96% hydraulics) or negative effects on forests with existing Energy Demand in Québec CO2 Emissions (1996) productivity (cutting rights permits)? Continuous • Energy •Risks related to insects ? % Hydroelectricity has •185 TWh Continuous Coastal Erosion in the Maritimes •Sink or sources for GHG mitigation ? 80 % equipment ? •sales: The •Positive or negative effects oilofforests market value ($$$$$)onbefore displaced Carbon depends on productivity (cutting rights permits)? 1990 in Québec Enviable • Sea level higher by 50 cm in 2050. Discontinuous ? Internal market total: •13 MM$ climate scenarios. The best reference climate scenarios situation Less ice facing Discontinuous protection from the demand the ? Validate Wind Power •Sink or sources for GHG mitigation ? for Canada runs on Ouranos supercomputers. ext.: •worth: coast during winter storms. 3,5 MM$ • Storm surge frequencyevolution ? ? and amplitude •57 MM$ More frequent winter storms ? Production Potential • To Zones Economy Southern Quebec where the road network •650 000 km2 resist is expensive and the ocean almost always ends up winning… NO permafrost is threatened by erosion Opportunity 2xCO2, Smith et al. (2001) for external "L'énergie au Québec", Ressources Naturelles Québec sales (displacement of CO2 Emission Sources (1996) Environment – Urban Health electricity production based on hydrocarbons) ? Winter Storm Frequency température 36 oC in the Northern Hemisphere 100 In Québec: 12 jours de canicule en France Storms / winter 80 Important gains only possible on transportation for "Kyoto" and beyond… 60 Water Management + de 10 000 décès Montréal (Pointe-aux-Trembles) 25 oC Gracieuseté: Hudon et al. 40 • Lost of beaches... Social and • Economic Issues: Perturbed villages 20 Environmental Issues: • Infrastructures•Conflicts between users for the and property threatened… 0 •Health in urban environment • Degraded ecosystem in the St-LawrenceChicago water 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 extremes •Impacts ofYear • Fisheries ? •Agriculture, agri-food, •Water management Source: Lambert 1996. • Tourism ? •Transportation – Water supply •Energy demand profile Canicule – Urban drainage •Ecosystems and biodiversity St-Lawrence Valley: St- été 1995 • Urban environment 47 5000 décès 1994: "average", for the last 30 years • Rural environment 1999: "extreme", lower by 1 meter 29 • Rural environment added?? ... and if 1999 was the "average" ... to which "extremes" are added?? Climate Science is Water management Link w/ Great Lakes Through evaporation Lower level (-1,3m) and clearly a Commercial Shipping Energy production Fresh water supply flow reduction (-40%) to Used water treatment the St-Lawrence River Fisheries Urban drainage decision support Ecosystems, habitats Underground water tool for most users Regional Climate Model Tourism and leisure Infrastructures Insurance Agriculture Water quality Flood control ?? Towards quantitative information, for decision-makers Government Scientific reliability 1. Energy profitability: hydro-wind power direction and high to very high potential, domestic and external markets actions plans 2009-2013 2. Regional prosperity and development: winter tourism, Small scale Scientific reliability forestry and waterways decisions: average to high 3. Health, security case studies 2004-2008 and risk management: new vectors, heat waves, inter-regional insurability, catastrophes,dam security, coastal erosion Determining Fiabilité scientifique 4. Knowledge and identity: issues : weak to average development of a francophone scientific pole projects 2001-2003 of international caliber and new researchers support for Québec government Level of Gvt depts. Scientific reliability: experiences & minimum to weak 1997-2000 and trials universities University Air-land-sea Theoretical and fundamental comprehension Research Processes-Observations at the basis of our climate knowledge Sharing tools and addressing impacts at the right scale… : Climate science at the continental scale : I&A involving users/stakeholders at the relevant scales www.ouranos.ca email@example.com Thank you for your attention!
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