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					1997 Indonesia Financial Crisis




                         Chris DeBose
                         Edan Harris
Agenda
 Part I
   Causes of the Crisis
 Part II
   During the Crisis
 Part III
   After the Crisis
Causes of the Crisis
 Devaluation of the Indonesian rupiah


 Fundamental weakness in the economy


 Indonesian central bank continued the trade band policy and
  increased the currency band.
Causes of the Crisis
 Devaluation of the Indonesian rupiah in relations to the
  dollar.
   1997: Rp 2,600/USD 1
   1998: Rp 11,000/USD 1
   Highest - Lowest: Rp 15,000 – Rp 8,000 / USD 1
Causes of the Crisis
 Fundamental weakness in the economy
   Inadequate liquidity where banks and corporations had too little
    cash and current assets to pay of their current and maturing
    liabilities.
Causes of the Crisis
 Fundamental weakness in the economy
   Excessive un-hedged and unsecured borrowing abroad by the
    private sector, specifically corporations and banks.
     Supported by inadequate supervisory institutions.
Causes of the Crisis
 The cycle caused by lack of liquidity and over borrowing.
   Strong demand for dollars.
Causes of the Crisis
 Fundamental weakness in the economy
   Investment/Overinvestment of borrowed funds into speculative
    projects and export industries where growth was difficult to
    predict.
     Like luxury condos, steel, shipbuilding and others.
Causes of the Crisis
 Increased the currency band.
   Indonesia responds by increase currency band on rupiah from
    8% to 12% so the value of the currency had more room to
    fluctuate and to allow the currency to re-stabilize within the
    band.
   Manage floating exchange rate (SEEN AS STABLE) to a free
    floating exchange rate (SEEN AS UNSTABLE).
Causes of the Crisis
 How does it all come together?
   As the strength of the of the Indonesian rupiah continually
    decreased.
   The over borrowing of foreign loans by the private sector
    (specifically private corporations) cause increased borrowing of
    the dollar.
   Corporations discarded rupiah (because of increase in debt
    under the rupiah), continuingly undermining the value of the
    rupiah.
During the Crisis
 Effects on the Economy


 Massive Unemployment


 IMF Prescriptions
After the Crisis
 Effects on the Economy
   The crisis is rooted in the private sector (particularly banking)
   Nearly all of the domestic businesses became insolvent
   Especially businesses in manufacturing and construction sector
    as well as in the urban
   services sector. Such as real estate and property sector, and the
    banking sector.
During the Crisis
 Massive Unemployment
   It is estimated that nearly have of Indonesia’s citizens were
    pushed back below the poverty line as a result of the financial
    crisis.
During the Crisis




 *Real GDP went down.
During the Crisis




*Number of Employed went down.
During the Crisis




*Employee Equivalent measures total hours work over average
annual hours worked and it went down.
During the Crisis




* Average Hours Worked went up.
During the Crisis




*Average Income per Year went down.
 During the Crisis




*Average Real Wage per Hours Worked went down.
   During the Crisis
 IMF Prescriptions
   Originally the IMF required that the government engage in strict
    austerity measures of fiscal and monetary policy.
     Draconian government cutbacks. i.e. food and energy subsidies and so forth.
   After it is was discovered that the original cause for the crisis was
    rooted in the private sector, IMF felt that is was necessary to
    implement measures to deal with the problems within it.
     Required reforms that would mimic American and European currency,
      banking and financial systems.
     Also they required the liquidation of half of the banks. (only 16 were
      liquidated)
     Additionally provided $40 billion worth in “rescue packages” for the banks.
During the Crisis
 IMF Prescriptions
   This was especially true for the private banking sector,
    which the IMF sought to reform.

   Most importantly, the IMF requested that the Indonesian
    government “sell off ” or privatize government companies.
    It was believed that the Indonesian government was
    inefficient because of heavy government intervention in
    the public sector.

   Thus, the IMF believed that more liberalized government
    agencies would help them become more efficient, this
    would help eliminate the crisis.
After the Crisis
 Stabilization of the currency. (Although it was enormously
    undervalued in comparison to pre-1997 levels).
   Massive student protest due the government cut backs of
    subsidies. This led to a drastic rise in food and energy prices.
   Increased inflation due to government cutting of subsides.
   Economic growth accelerated to 5.1 % in 2004, 5.6 in 2005
    due to consumer consumption (3/4 of Indonesia GDP).
   Real per capita income reach 1996/1997 levels.
   Unemployment rate was 9.75% in 2007.
After the Crisis
 Here is a video illustrating the aftermath of the IMF policies
  that were implemented.
   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VjMyvPJ3hE&feature=
    player_detailpage

				
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posted:10/31/2011
language:English
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