Seattle Region by CharlieThhomas

VIEWS: 28 PAGES: 5

									                                     Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue Area
                                 Metro Market Report, First Quarter 2009

        Today's Market…
                           Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth                                                                  1,000s
                  25%                                                                                                                           $450
                  20%                                                                                                                           $400
                  15%                                                                                                                           $350
                  10%                                                                                                                           $300
                   5%                                                                                                                           $250
                   0%                                                                                                                           $200
                  -5%                                                                                                                           $150
                 -10%                                                                                                                           $100
                 -15%                                                                                                                           $50
                 -20%                                                                                                                           $0
                        2002 -   Q3    2003 -    Q3    2004 -    Q3     2005      Q3       2006     Q3    2007 -     Q3    2008 -   Q3    2009 -
                         Q1             Q1              Q1              - Q1               - Q1            Q1               Q1             Q1



                                                                      Seattle                     U.S.                              Local Trend
Price Activity
          Current Median Home Price (2009 - Q1)                   $315,200                    $167,633
                                                                                                                          Prices are down compared to a year
                    1-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1)                -15.3%                       -8.8%                        earlier and continue to weaken
                    3-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1)                  6 9%
                                                                    -6.9%                       22 7%
                                                                                               -22.7%
          3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain                 -$23,400                    -$49,267
                                                                                                                     Those who bought early in the boom still
                  7-year (28 q) Housing Equity Gain                $37,000                    -$31,367                         hold some equity
                  9-year (36 q) Housing Equity Gain                $90,800                       $633



                                      State Home Sales (Red Line) and Sales Growth                                                                 1,000s
                  30%                                                                                                                                  180
                  20%                                                                                                                                  160
                  10%                                                                                                                                  140
                                                                                                                                                       120
                  0%
                                                                                                                                                       100
                 -10%
                                                                                                                                                       80
                 -20%
                                                                                                                                                       60
                 -30%                                                                                                                                  40
                 -40%                                                                                                                                  20
                 -50%                                                                                                                                  0
                        2002 -   Q3     2003 -    Q3    2004 -    Q3     2005 -       Q3     2006        Q3   2007        Q3   2008 -    Q3   2009 -
                         Q1              Q1              Q1               Q1                 - Q1             - Q1              Q1             Q1



Home Sales and Construction Growth                               Washington                       U.S.
          *State Existing Home Sales (2009 - Q1)                      -35.4%                      -8.2%              Weak compared to recent state average
*versus same quarter, year-ago



                                                                                  1
    Local Supply and Demand…
Local Economic Outlook                                 Seattle           U.S.
               1-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr)       -60,600       Not Comparable     Weak for this market and could impact
               3-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr)       28,000        Not Comparable                    demand
        State Economic Activity Index                Washington          U.S.
                  12-month change (2009 - Apr)         -15.0%            -3.2%          Contracting faster than the rest of the
                  36-month change (2009 - Apr)         -10.0%            0.9%                           nation



Local Fundamentals                                     Seattle           U.S.
             1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate          -3.4%            -1.6%          Weak compared to other markets
             3-year (36 month) Job Growth Rate           1.7%            0.7%          Respectable relative to other areas
   1-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes            -5.2             -0.1        Weak compared to the national average
     3-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes           0.5              4.7           Weak compared to the nation
   ** Single-Family Housing Permits (2009 - Apr)       -50.8%           -42.2%             Important to reduce supply
**Rolling 12-month sum vs. a year ago



                       Affordability - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost-to-Income
                                        (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
              25%

              20%

              15%

              10%

               5%

               0%




Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income                     Seattle           U.S.
                             Ratio for all of 2008     20.2%             20.7%                   Weak affordability
                             Ratio for 2009 - Q1       17.2%             17.7%             Improving and historically strong
                        Historical Local Average       18.3%             23.2%               Good relative to the nation




                                                                 2
                       Recent Trend ‐ Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income
                                     (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
             25.0%

             20.0%

             15.0%

             10.0%

              5.0%

              0.0%
                         2007 - Q4       2008 - Q1     2008 - Q2   2008 - Q3     2008 - Q4      2009 - Q1




Median Home Price to Income                          Seattle        U.S.
                                 Ratio for 2008       6.1             7.2               Weak Relative to Local History
                        Historical Local Average      5.8             7.2              Good Compared to Nation Average


                          Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income
                                       (Historical Average shown in Red Dashed Line)
                 9.0
                 8.0
                 7.0
                 6.0
                 5.0
                 4.0
                 3.0
                 2.0
                 1.0
                 0.0




                                                               3
  Looking Deeper….
                               State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average
                                            (U.S. Average in Red Dashed Line)
                4.5%
                4.0%
                3.5%
                3.0%
                2.5%
                2.0%
                1.5%
                1.0%
                0.5%
                0.0%




              Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association



Monthly Market Data - February 2009                  Seattle           U.S.
                           PRIME Market Share        86.0%             84.5%           Lower subprime exposure than average
            SUBPRIME and Alt-A Market Share          14.0%             15.5%              Strong Compared to the Nation
                                                                                       There has been a large local increase
        TOTAL F    l            R t
              Foreclosure + REO Rate                 0 7%
                                                     0.7%               1.7%
                                                                        1 7%
                                                                                                versus a year ago
TOTAL Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1-                                          Compared to the nationional average,
                                                     0.2%               0.8%
                year earlier )                                                              today's local rate is low
                                                                                       There has been a large local increase
      SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate                9.6%              14.6%
                                                                                                versus a year ago
  SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate (same                                                Locally, today's foreclosure rate is low
                                                     5.0%              11.6%
          period, 1- year earlier)                                                       relative to the nationional average
                                                                                      A large local increase occurred compared
        ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate                 5.1%              12.1%
                                                                                                      to a year ago
ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1-                                         Today's local rate is low compared to the
                                                     1.4%               5.5%
                year earlier)                                                                     national average
Monthly Foreclosure data provided by First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data




                                                               4
The Mortgage Market

                 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond
      8.0                                                                                              3.00
      7.0                                                                                              2.50
      6.0                                                                                              2.00
      5.0                                                                                              1.50
      4.0                                                                                              1.00
      3.0                                                                                              0.50
      2.0                                                                                              0.00
            Q4   Q2    Q4     Q2     Q4     Q2   Q4   Q2   Q4       Q2   Q4   Q2   Q4   Q2    Q4


                      Spread (right axis)             30-Year FRM              10-Year Treasury Bond




                                                      5

								
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