Knoxville Area Metro Market Report, First Quarter 2009
Today's Market…
Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth
25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10%
2002 Q1 Q3 2003 Q1 Q3 2004 Q1 Q3 2005 Q1 Q3 2006 - Q1 Q3 2007 Q1 Q3 2008 Q1 Q3
1,000s $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0
2009 Q1
Knoxville Price Activity
Current Median Home Price (2009 - Q1) 1-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1) 3-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1) 3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain 7-year (28 q) Housing Equity Gain 9-year (36 q) Housing Equity Gain
U.S.
$167,633 -8.8% -22.7% 22 7% -$49,267 -$31,367 $633
Local Trend
Prices are down from a year ago, but pp appear to have stabalised Those who bought early in the boom still hold some equity
$138,600 -5.1% -3.1% 3 1% -$4,400 $3,600 $20,300
State Home Sales (Red Line) and Sales Growth
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25%
2002 Q1 Q3 2003 Q1 Q3 2004 - Q1 Q3 2005 - Q1 Q3 2006 - Q1 Q3 2007 Q1 Q3 2008 Q1 Q3
1,000s 25 20 15 10 5 0
2009 Q1
Home Sales and Construction Growth *State Existing Home Sales (2009 - Q1)
Tennessee -18.4%
U.S.
-8.2% Weak compared to recent state average
*versus same quarter, year-ago
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Local Supply and Demand…
Local Economic Outlook 1-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr) 3-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr) State Economic Activity Index 12-month change (2009 - Apr) 36-month change (2009 - Apr) Knoxville
U.S.
Not Comparable Not Comparable Weak for this market and could impact demand
-11,700 -6,900 Tennessee -4.4% -1.2%
U.S.
-3.2% 0.9% Contracting faster than the rest of the nation
Local Fundamentals 1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate 3-year (36 month) Job Growth Rate 1-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes
3-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes
Knoxville
U.S.
-1.6% 0.7% -0.1 4.7 -42.2% Weak compared to other markets Weaker than most metro areas Weak compared to the national average Weak compared to the nation Important to reduce supply
** Single-Family Housing Permits (2009 - Apr)
-3.5% -2.1% -6.7 -0.7 -45.9%
**Rolling 12-month sum vs. a year ago
Affordability - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost-to-Income
(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%
Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income
Ratio for all of 2008 Ratio for 2009 - Q1 Historical Local Average
Knoxville
U.S.
20.7% 17.7% 23.2% Good local affordability Improving and historically strong Good relative to the nation
12.4% 11.3% 13.9%
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Recent Trend ‐ Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income
16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2007 - Q4 2008 - Q1 2008 - Q2 2008 - Q3 2008 - Q4 2009 - Q1
(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
Median Home Price to Income
Ratio for 2008 Historical Local Average
Knoxville
U.S.
7.2 7.2 Good Relative to Local History Good Compared to Nation Average
4.3 4.4
Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income
(Historical Average shown in Red Dashed Line)
4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8
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Looking Deeper….
State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average
(U.S. Average in Red Dashed Line)
4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association
Monthly Market Data - February 2009 PRIME Market Share SUBPRIME and Alt-A Market Share TOTAL F Foreclosure + REO Rate l R t TOTAL Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1year earlier ) SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1- year earlier) ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1year earlier)
Knoxville
U.S.
84.5% 15.5% 1.7% 1 7% 0.8% 14.6% 11.6% 12.1% 5.5% Lower subprime exposure than average Strong Compared to the Nation There has been a large local increase versus a year ago Compared to the nationional average, today's local rate is low There has been a large local increase versus a year ago Locally, today's foreclosure rate is low relative to the nationional average A large local increase occurred compared to a year ago Today's local rate is low compared to the national average
87.7% 12.3% 0.6% 0 6% 0.3% 7.0% 5.4% 3.5% 2.2%
Monthly Foreclosure data provided by First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data
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The Mortgage Market
30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond
8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00
Spread (right axis)
30-Year FRM
10-Year Treasury Bond
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