Toledo Area
Metro Market Report, First Quarter 2009
Today's Market…
Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 1,000s
15% $140
10% $120
5%
$100
0%
-5% $80
-10% $60
-15%
$40
-20%
-25% $20
-30% $0
2002 - Q3 2003 - Q3 2004 - Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008 - Q3 2009 -
Q1 Q1 Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 Q1 Q1
Toledo U.S. Local Trend
Price Activity
Current Median Home Price (2009 - Q1) $65,500 $167,633
Prices are down from a year ago, but
1-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1) -27.0% -8.8% pp
appear to have stabalised
3-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1) 36 4%
-36.4% 22 7%
-22.7%
3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain -$37,500 -$49,267
The decline has wiped out most of the
7-year (28 q) Housing Equity Gain -$48,600 -$31,367 equity gained during the housing boom
9-year (36 q) Housing Equity Gain -$52,700 $633
State Home Sales (Red Line) and Sales Growth 1,000s
15% 350
10% 300
250
5%
200
0%
150
-5%
100
-10% 50
-15% 0
2002 - Q3 2003 - Q3 2004 - Q3 2005 - Q3 2006 - Q3 2007 Q3 2008 - Q3 2009 -
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 - Q1 Q1 Q1
Home Sales and Construction Growth Ohio U.S.
*State Existing Home Sales (2009 - Q1) -1.5% -8.2% Better than the national average
*versus same quarter, year-ago
1
Local Supply and Demand…
Local Economic Outlook Toledo U.S.
1-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr) -18,100 Not Comparable Weak for this market and could impact
3-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr) -29,700 Not Comparable demand
State Economic Activity Index Ohio U.S.
12-month change (2009 - Apr) -9.3% -3.2% Contracting faster than the rest of the
36-month change (2009 - Apr) -9.0% 0.9% nation
Local Fundamentals Toledo U.S.
1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate -5.6% -1.6% Weak compared to other markets
3-year (36 month) Job Growth Rate -8.9% 0.7% Weaker than most metro areas
1-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes -20.3 -0.1 Weak compared to the national average
3-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes -7.9 4.7 Weak compared to the nation
** Single-Family Housing Permits (2009 - Apr) -55.9% -42.2% Important to reduce supply
**Rolling 12-month sum vs. a year ago
Affordability - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost-to-Income
(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Toledo U.S.
Ratio for all of 2008 7.9% 20.7% Good local affordability
Ratio for 2009 - Q1 5.4% 17.7% Improving and historically strong
Historical Local Average 11.2% 23.2% Good relative to the nation
2
Recent Trend ‐ Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income
(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2007 - Q4 2008 - Q1 2008 - Q2 2008 - Q3 2008 - Q4 2009 - Q1
Median Home Price to Income Toledo U.S.
Ratio for 2008 2.7 7.2 Good Relative to Local History
Historical Local Average 3.5 7.2 Good Compared to Nation Average
Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income
(Historical Average shown in Red Dashed Line)
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
3
Looking Deeper….
State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average
(U.S. Average in Red Dashed Line)
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association
Monthly Market Data - February 2009 Toledo U.S.
PRIME Market Share 88.8% 84.5% Lower subprime exposure than average
SUBPRIME and Alt-A Market Share 11.2% 15.5% Strong Compared to the Nation
There has been a large local increase
TOTAL F l R t
Foreclosure + REO Rate 2 2%
2.2% 1.7%
1 7%
versus a year ago
TOTAL Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1- The current local rate is high compared
1.6% 0.8%
year earlier ) with the current U.S. average
There has been little change locally
SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate 15.2% 14.6%
compare to year ago
SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate (same The current local rate is high given the
16.4% 11.6%
period, 1- year earlier) current U.S. average
A large local increase occurred compared
ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate 14.9% 12.1%
to a year ago
ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1- The current local rate is high compared
9.0% 5.5%
year earlier) with the up-to-date U.S. average
Monthly Foreclosure data provided by First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data
4
The Mortgage Market
30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond
8.0 3.00
7.0 2.50
6.0 2.00
5.0 1.50
4.0 1.00
3.0 0.50
2.0 0.00
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
Spread (right axis) 30-Year FRM 10-Year Treasury Bond
5
6
Toledo Toledo
Ohio
7
8
9
Feb-09
2009
0
February
10
11