Edison Area
Metro Market Report, First Quarter 2009
Today's Market…
Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 1,000s
25% $450
20% $400
15% $350
10% $300
$250
5%
$200
0% $150
-5% $100
-10% $50
-15% $0
2002 - Q3 2003 - Q3 2004 - Q3 2005 - Q3 2006 - Q3 2007 - Q3 2008 - Q3 2009 -
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
Edison U.S. Local Trend
Price Activity
Current Median Home Price (2009 - Q1) $320,900 $167,633
Prices are down compared to a year
1-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1) -11.3% -8.8% earlier and continue to weaken
3-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1) -14.7% -22.7%
3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain -$55,500 -$49,267
The decline has wiped out most of the
7-year (28 q) Housing Equity Gain -$19,700 -$31,367 equity gained during the housing boom
9-year (36 q) Housing Equity Gain $61,900 $633
State Home Sales (Red Line) and Sales Growth
30% 250
20%
200
10%
0% 150
-10% 100
-20%
50
-30%
-40% 0
2002 - Q3 2003 - Q3 2004 - Q3 2005 - Q3 2006 - Q3 2007 - Q3 2008 - Q3 2009 -
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
Home Sales and Construction Growth New Jersey U.S.
*State Existing Home Sales (2009 - Q1) -18.7% -8.2% Weak compared to recent state average
*versus same quarter, year-ago
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Local Supply and Demand…
Local Economic Outlook Edison U.S.
1-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr) -48,500 Not Comparable Weak for this market and could impact
3-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr) -33,100 Not Comparable demand
State Economic Activity Index New Jersey U.S.
12-month change (2009 - Apr) -4.1% -3.2% Contracting faster than the rest of the
36-month change (2009 - Apr) -0.8% 0.9% nation
Local Fundamentals Edison U.S.
1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate -4.7% -1.6% Weak compared to other markets
3-year (36 month) Job Growth Rate -3.2% 0.7% Weaker than most metro areas
1-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes NA -0.1 NA
3-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes NA 4.7 NA
** Single-Family Housing Permits (2009 - Apr) NA -42.2% NA
**Rolling 12-month sum vs. a year ago
Affordability - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost-to-Income
(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
9
1
3
5
7
9
1
3
5
7
8
9
9
9
9
9
0
0
0
0
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Edison U.S.
Ratio for all of 2008 20.2% 20.7% Good local affordability
Ratio for 2009 - Q1 17.6% 17.7% Improving and historically strong
Historical Local Average 20.2% 23.2% Good relative to the nation
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22.0%
21.0%
20.0%
19.0%
18.0%
17.0%
16.0%
15.0%
2007 - Q4 2008 - Q1 2008 - Q2 2008 - Q3 2008 - Q4 2009 - Q1
Median Home Price to Income Edison U.S.
Ratio for 2008 7.1 7.2 Good Relative to Local History
Historical Local Average 7.2 7.2 Weak Compared to Nation Average
Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income
(Historical Average shown in Red Dashed Line)
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
9
1
3
5
7
9
1
3
5
7
8
9
9
9
9
9
0
0
0
0
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
3
Looking Deeper….
State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average
(U.S. Average in Red Dashed Line)
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Monthly Market Data - February 2009 Edison U.S.
PRIME Market Share NA 84.5% NA
SUBPRIME and Alt-A Market Share NA 15.5% NA
TOTAL Foreclosure + REO Rate NA 1.7% NA
TOTAL Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1-
NA 0.8% NA
year earlier )
SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate NA 14.6% NA
SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate (same
NA 11.6% NA
period, 1- year earlier)
ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate NA 12.1% NA
ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1-
NA 5.5% NA
year earlier)
Monthly Foreclosure data provided by First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data
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The Mortgage Market
30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond
8.0 3.00
7.0 2.50
6.0 2.00
5.0 1.50
4.0 1.00
3.0 0.50
2.0 0.00
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
Spread (right axis) 30-Year FRM 10-Year Treasury Bond
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