Atlantic City Area
Metro Market Report, First Quarter 2009
Today's Market…
Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 1,000s
30% $300
20% $250
10% $200
0% $150
-10% $100
-20% $50
-30% $0
2002 - Q3 2003 - Q3 2004 - Q3 2005 - Q3 2006 - Q3 2007 - Q3 2008 - Q3 2009 -
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
Atlantic City U.S. Local Trend
Price Activity
Current Median Home Price (2009 - Q1) $219,100 $167,633
Prices are down compared to a year
1-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1) -21.0% -8.8% earlier and continue to weaken
3-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1) -13.0% -22.7%
3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain -$32,600 -$49,267
Those who bought early in the boom still
7-year (28 q) Housing Equity Gain $16,700 -$31,367 hold some equity
9-year (36 q) Housing Equity Gain $69,400 $633
State Home Sales (Red Line) and Sales Growth
30% 250
20%
200
10%
0% 150
-10% 100
-20%
50
-30%
-40% 0
2002 - Q3 2003 - Q3 2004 - Q3 2005 - Q3 2006 - Q3 2007 - Q3 2008 - Q3 2009 -
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
Home Sales and Construction Growth New Jersey U.S.
*State Existing Home Sales (2009 - Q1) -18.7% -8.2% Weak compared to recent state average
*versus same quarter, year-ago
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Local Supply and Demand…
Local Economic Outlook Atlantic City U.S.
1-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr) -7,900 Not Comparable Weak for this market and could impact
3-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr) -12,100 Not Comparable demand
State Economic Activity Index New Jersey U.S.
12-month change (2009 - Apr) -4.1% -3.2% Contracting faster than the rest of the
36-month change (2009 - Apr) -0.8% 0.9% nation
Local Fundamentals Atlantic City U.S.
1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate -5.3% -1.6% Weak compared to other markets
3-year (36 month) Job Growth Rate -8.0% 0.7% Weaker than most metro areas
1-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes -13.4 -0.1 Weak compared to the national average
3-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes -3.8 4.7 Weak compared to the nation
** Single-Family Housing Permits (2009 - Apr) -49.3% -42.2% Important to reduce supply
**Rolling 12-month sum vs. a year ago
Affordability - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost-to-Income
(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
9
1
3
5
7
9
1
3
5
7
8
9
9
9
9
9
0
0
0
0
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Atlantic City U.S.
Ratio for all of 2008 19.5% 20.7% Weak affordability
Ratio for 2009 - Q1 16.7% 17.7% Weak by local standards
Historical Local Average 15.4% 23.2% Good relative to the nation
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25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2007 - Q4 2008 - Q1 2008 - Q2 2008 - Q3 2008 - Q4 2009 - Q1
Median Home Price to Income Atlantic City U.S.
Ratio for 2008 6.8 7.2 Weak Relative to Local History
Historical Local Average 4.9 7.2 Good Compared to Nation Average
Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income
(Historical Average shown in Red Dashed Line)
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
9
1
3
5
7
9
1
3
5
7
8
9
9
9
9
9
0
0
0
0
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
3
Looking Deeper….
State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average
(U.S. Average in Red Dashed Line)
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
3
1
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
Q
-Q
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Monthly Market Data - February 2009 Atlantic City U.S.
PRIME Market Share 86.8% 84.5% Lower subprime exposure than average
SUBPRIME and Alt-A Market Share 13.2% 15.5% Strong Compared to the Nation
There has been a large local increase
TOTAL Foreclosure + REO Rate 2.1% 1.7%
versus a year ago
TOTAL Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1- Compared to the nationional average,
0.8% 0.8%
year earlier ) today's local rate is low
There has been a large local increase
SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate 18.9% 14.6%
versus a year ago
SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate (same Locally, today's foreclosure rate is low
10.9% 11.6%
period, 1- year earlier) relative to the nationional average
A large local increase occurred compared
ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate 13.2% 12.1%
to a year ago
ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1- The current local rate is high compared
3.7% 5.5%
year earlier) with the up-to-date U.S. average
Monthly Foreclosure data provided by First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data
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