NY-N. New Jersey-Long Island Area
Metro Market Report, First Quarter 2009
Today's Market…
Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 1,000s
25% $600
20%
$500
15%
10% $400
5%
$300
0%
-5% $200
-10%
$100
-15%
-20% $0
2002 - Q3 2003 - Q3 2004 - Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 - Q3 2008 - Q3 2009 -
Q1 Q1 Q1 - Q1 - Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
NY U.S. Local Trend
Price Activity
Current Median Home Price (2009 - Q1) $374,500 $167,633
Prices are down compared to a year
1-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1) -16.0% -8.8% earlier and continue to weaken
3-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1) 18 4%
-18.4% 22 7%
-22.7%
3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain -$84,500 -$49,267
The decline has wiped out most of the
7-year (28 q) Housing Equity Gain -$23,700 -$31,367 equity gained during the housing boom
9-year (36 q) Housing Equity Gain $63,400 $633
State Home Sales (Red Line) and Sales Growth 1,000s
20% 350
15%
300
10%
5% 250
0% 200
-5%
-10% 150
-15% 100
-20%
50
-25%
-30% 0
2002 - Q3 2003 - Q3 2004 - Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008 - Q3 2009 -
Q1 Q1 Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 Q1 Q1
Home Sales and Construction Growth New York U.S.
*State Existing Home Sales (2009 - Q1) -23.1% -8.2% Weak compared to recent state average
*versus same quarter, year-ago
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Local Supply and Demand…
Local Economic Outlook NY U.S.
1-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr) -234,400 Not Comparable Weak for this market and could impact
3-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr) -16,900 Not Comparable demand
State Economic Activity Index New York U.S.
12-month change (2009 - Apr) -9.7% -3.2% Contracting faster than the rest of the
36-month change (2009 - Apr) -6.0% 0.9% nation
Local Fundamentals NY U.S.
1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate -2.7% -1.6% Weak compared to other markets
3-year (36 month) Job Growth Rate -0.2% 0.7% Weaker than most metro areas
1-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes -5.4 -0.1 Weak compared to the national average
3-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes -0.1 4.7 Weak compared to the nation
** Single-Family Housing Permits (2009 - Apr) -34.2% -42.2% Important to reduce supply
**Rolling 12-month sum vs. a year ago
Affordability - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost-to-Income
(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income NY U.S.
Ratio for all of 2008 22.9% 20.7% Good local affordability
Ratio for 2009 - Q1 19.2% 17.7% Improving and historically strong
Historical Local Average 23.4% 23.2% Weak relative to the nation
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Recent Trend ‐ Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income
(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2007 - Q4 2008 - Q1 2008 - Q2 2008 - Q3 2008 - Q4 2009 - Q1
Median Home Price to Income NY U.S.
Ratio for 2008 8.0 7.2 Good Relative to Local History
Historical Local Average 8.3 7.2 Weak Compared to Nation Average
Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income
(Historical Average shown in Red Dashed Line)
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
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Looking Deeper….
State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average
(U.S. Average in Red Dashed Line)
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association
Monthly Market Data - February 2009 NY U.S.
PRIME Market Share 83.9% 84.5% Higher subprime exposure than average
SUBPRIME and Alt-A Market Share 16.1% 15.5% Worrisome
There has been a large local increase
TOTAL F l R t
Foreclosure + REO Rate 1 0%
1.0% 1.7%
1 7%
versus a year ago
TOTAL Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1- Compared to the nationional average,
0.6% 0.8%
year earlier ) today's local rate is low
There has been a large local increase
SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate 16.9% 14.6%
versus a year ago
SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate (same The current local rate is high given the
12.9% 11.6%
period, 1- year earlier) current U.S. average
A large local increase occurred compared
ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate 9.0% 12.1%
to a year ago
ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1- Today's local rate is low compared to the
5.0% 5.5%
year earlier) national average
Monthly Foreclosure data provided by First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data
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The Mortgage Market
30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond
8.0 3.00
7.0 2.50
6.0 2.00
5.0 1.50
4.0 1.00
3.0 0.50
2.0 0.00
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
Spread (right axis) 30-Year FRM 10-Year Treasury Bond
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