Springfield Region by CharlieThhomas

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									                                           Springfield Area
                                 Metro Market Report, First Quarter 2009

        Today's Market…
                           Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth                                                               1,000s
                 20%                                                                                                                         $120
                 15%                                                                                                                            $100
                 10%
                                                                                                                                                $80
                  5%
                                                                                                                                                $60
                  0%
                                                                                                                                                $40
                 -5%
                 -10%                                                                                                                           $20

                 -15%                                                                                                                           $0
                        2002 -   Q3    2003 -   Q3   2004 -   Q3     2005 -   Q3       2006     Q3        2007   Q3     2008 -   Q3    2009 -
                         Q1             Q1            Q1              Q1               - Q1               - Q1           Q1             Q1



                                                              Springfield                     U.S.                               Local Trend
Price Activity
          Current Median Home Price (2009 - Q1)                $111 400
                                                               $111,400                   $167,633
                                                                                          $167 633
                                                                                                                      Prices are down from a year ago, but
                    1-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1)               3.9%                      -8.8%                          appear to have stabalised
                    3-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1)               9.0%                     -22.7%
          3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain                $9,200                   -$49,267                   The area has held onto a modest
                  7-year (28 q) Housing Equity Gain              $4,900                   -$31,367               improvement in equity despite the market
                  9-year (36 q) Housing Equity Gain             $13,900                      $633                                decline



                                      State Home Sales (Red Line) and Sales Growth                                                              1,000s
                  25%                                                                                                                               350
                  20%
                                                                                                                                                     300
                  15%
                  10%                                                                                                                                250
                   5%
                   0%                                                                                                                                200
                  -5%                                                                                                                                150
                 -10%
                 -15%                                                                                                                                100
                 -20%
                                                                                                                                                     50
                 -25%
                 -30%                                                                                                                                0
                        2002 -   Q3    2003 -   Q3     2004    Q3      2005       Q3     2006        Q3     2007 -    Q3   2008 -     Q3   2009 -
                         Q1             Q1             - Q1            - Q1              - Q1                Q1             Q1              Q1


Home Sales and Construction Growth                                 Illinois                   U.S.
          *State Existing Home Sales (2009 - Q1)                   -21.7%                     -8.2%                  Weak compared to recent state average
*versus same quarter, year-ago



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    Local Supply and Demand…
Local Economic Outlook                               Springfield         U.S.
               1-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr)       -2,000        Not Comparable     Weak for this market and could impact
               3-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr)       -1,200        Not Comparable                    demand
        State Economic Activity Index                 Illinois           U.S.
                  12-month change (2009 - Apr)         -6.5%             -3.2%          Contracting faster than the rest of the
                  36-month change (2009 - Apr)         -3.6%             0.9%                           nation



Local Fundamentals                                   Springfield         U.S.
             1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate         -1.8%             -1.6%          Weak compared to other markets
             3-year (36 month) Job Growth Rate         -1.1%              0.7%           Weaker than most metro areas
   1-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes          -10.7               -0.1       Weak compared to the national average
     3-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes         -1.4               4.7           Weak compared to the nation
   ** Single-Family Housing Permits (2009 - Apr)      -42.2%            -42.2%             Important to reduce supply
**Rolling 12-month sum vs. a year ago



                        Affordability - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost-to-Income
                                        (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
              14%
              12%
              10%
                8%
                6%
                4%
                2%
                0%




Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income                   Springfield         U.S.
                             Ratio for all of 2008      8.3%             20.7%                Good local affordability
                             Ratio for 2009 - Q1        8.4%             17.7%               Good, but softening locally
                        Historical Local Average       10.1%             23.2%               Good relative to the nation




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                       Recent Trend ‐ Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income
                                    (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
             12.0%

             10.0%

               8.0%

               6.0%

               4.0%

               2.0%

               0.0%
                        2007 - Q4       2008 - Q1     2008 - Q2   2008 - Q3     2008 - Q4      2009 - Q1




Median Home Price to Income                       Springfield      U.S.
                                Ratio for 2008       2.9             7.2                Good Relative to Local History
                       Historical Local Average      3.2             7.2              Good Compared to Nation Average



                         Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income
                                      (Historical Average shown in Red Dashed Line)
                 4.0
                 3.5
                 3.0
                 2.5
                 2.0
                 1.5
                 1.0
                 0.5
                 0.0




                                                            3
  Looking Deeper….
                               State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average
                                            (U.S. Average in Red Dashed Line)
             5.0%
             4.5%
             4.0%
             3.5%
             3.0%
             2.5%
             2.0%
             1.5%
             1.0%
             0.5%
             0.0%




              Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association



Monthly Market Data - February 2009                Springfield         U.S.
                           PRIME Market Share        93.0%             84.5%          Lower subprime exposure than average
            SUBPRIME and Alt-A Market Share           7.0%             15.5%             Strong Compared to the Nation

        TOTAL Foreclosure + REO Rate                 0.7%               1.7%          Little local increase relative to year ago

TOTAL Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1-                                          Compared to the nationional average,
                                                     0.6%               0.8%
                year earlier )                                                              today's local rate is low
                                                                                        There has been little change locally
      SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate                10.7%             14.6%
                                                                                               compare to year ago
  SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate (same                                                Locally, today's foreclosure rate is low
                                                     9.8%              11.6%
          period, 1- year earlier)                                                       relative to the nationional average
                                                                                       Relatively little local increase versus a
        ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate                 4.6%              12.1%
                                                                                                        year ago
ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1-                                         Today's local rate is low compared to the
                                                     4.0%               5.5%
                year earlier)                                                                     national average
Monthly Foreclosure data provided by First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data




                                                              4
The Mortgage Market

                 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond
      8.0                                                                                          3.00
      7.0                                                                                          2.50
      6.0                                                                                          2.00
      5.0                                                                                          1.50
      4.0                                                                                          1.00
      3.0                                                                                          0.50
      2.0                                                                                          0.00
            Q4   Q2     Q4     Q2    Q4     Q2   Q4   Q2   Q4   Q2   Q4   Q2   Q4   Q2    Q4


                      Spread (right axis)             30-Year FRM          10-Year Treasury Bond




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