Peoria Area
Metro Market Report, First Quarter 2009
Today's Market…
Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth 1,000s
20% $140
15% $120
$100
10%
$80
5%
$60
0%
$40
-5% $20
-10% $0
2002 - Q3 2003 - Q3 2004 - Q3 2005 - Q3 2006 - Q3 2007 Q3 2008 - Q3 2009 -
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 - Q1 Q1 Q1
Peoria U.S. Local Trend
Price Activity
Current Median Home Price (2009 - Q1) $109 800
$109,800 $167,633
$167 633
Prices are down compared to a year
1-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1) -7.7% -8.8% earlier and continue to weaken
3-year Appreciation (2009 - Q1) 6.1% -22.7%
3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain $6,300 -$49,267
The decline has wiped out most of the
7-year (28 q) Housing Equity Gain -$3,200 -$31,367 equity gained during the housing boom
9-year (36 q) Housing Equity Gain $17,900 $633
State Home Sales (Red Line) and Sales Growth 1,000s
25% 350
20%
300
15%
10% 250
5%
0% 200
-5% 150
-10%
-15% 100
-20%
50
-25%
-30% 0
2002 - Q3 2003 - Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 - Q3 2008 - Q3 2009 -
Q1 Q1 - Q1 - Q1 - Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
Home Sales and Construction Growth Illinois U.S.
*State Existing Home Sales (2009 - Q1) -21.7% -8.2% Weak compared to recent state average
*versus same quarter, year-ago
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Local Supply and Demand…
Local Economic Outlook Peoria U.S.
1-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr) -1,900 Not Comparable Weak for this market and could impact
3-year Job Additions (2009 - Apr) 3,400 Not Comparable demand
State Economic Activity Index Illinois U.S.
12-month change (2009 - Apr) -6.5% -3.2% Contracting faster than the rest of the
36-month change (2009 - Apr) -3.6% 0.9% nation
Local Fundamentals Peoria U.S.
1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate -1.0% -1.6% Respectable compared to other markets
3-year (36 month) Job Growth Rate 1.9% 0.7% Respectable relative to other areas
1-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes -4.1 -0.1 Weak compared to the national average
3-year Job Gain to New Single-Family Homes 1.8 4.7 Weak compared to the nation
** Single-Family Housing Permits (2009 - Apr) -32.3% -42.2% Important to reduce supply
**Rolling 12-month sum vs. a year ago
Affordability - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost-to-Income
(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Peoria U.S.
Ratio for all of 2008 8.6% 20.7% Good local affordability
Ratio for 2009 - Q1 7.8% 17.7% Improving and historically strong
Historical Local Average 9.7% 23.2% Good relative to the nation
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Recent Trend ‐ Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income
(Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2007 - Q4 2008 - Q1 2008 - Q2 2008 - Q3 2008 - Q4 2009 - Q1
Median Home Price to Income Peoria U.S.
Ratio for 2008 3.1 7.2 Good Relative to Local History
Historical Local Average 3.1 7.2 Good Compared to Nation Average
Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income
(Historical Average shown in Red Dashed Line)
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
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Looking Deeper….
State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average
(U.S. Average in Red Dashed Line)
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association
Monthly Market Data - February 2009 Peoria U.S.
PRIME Market Share 91.1% 84.5% Lower subprime exposure than average
SUBPRIME and Alt-A Market Share 8.9% 15.5% Strong Compared to the Nation
TOTAL Foreclosure + REO Rate 1.3% 1.7% Little local increase relative to year ago
TOTAL Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1- The current local rate is high compared
1.1% 0.8%
year earlier ) with the current U.S. average
There has been little change locally
SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate 11.4% 14.6%
compare to year ago
SUBPRIME Foreclosure + REO Rate (same Locally, today's foreclosure rate is low
11.1% 11.6%
period, 1- year earlier) relative to the nationional average
A large local increase occurred compared
ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate 5.2% 12.1%
to a year ago
ALT-A Foreclosure + REO Rate (same period, 1- Today's local rate is low compared to the
3.9% 5.5%
year earlier) national average
Monthly Foreclosure data provided by First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data
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The Mortgage Market
30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond
8.0 3.00
7.0 2.50
6.0 2.00
5.0 1.50
4.0 1.00
3.0 0.50
2.0 0.00
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
Spread (right axis) 30-Year FRM 10-Year Treasury Bond
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