LONG RANGE PLAN (LRP) Document & Triangulation Guide
What is its purpose? The purpose of the LRP is to anticipate what future college programs and facilities are needed to best serve community needs. Program and facilities needs are forecast by predicting, analyzing, and comparing program enrollment and community trends. The LRP provides baseline data that will be used to develop a Facilities Master Plan (FMP). The FMP will be developed by a professional facilities planner contracted using appropriated Advanced Planning Funds. Who are the readers? While the LRP provides baseline data on program and facilities needs to a facilities planner, several different groups – college & NCCCS staffs, legislators, and the general public – will have an interest in the LRP. Therefore, the LRP should be written in clear and concise language that assumes no prior knowledge of the college, community, or process. What data sources are used? Four (4) primary qualitative and quantitative data sources are used in the subsequent forecasting and analysis: 1. Service Area Trend Data (quantitative) as provided by CCbenefits Regional Scan & Program Demand Reports and/or other comparable data 2. Enrollment Trend Data (quantitative) as provided by NCCCS colleges using one of three NCCCS-provided models or other college-derived models as deemed appropriate 3. Internal Data (qualitative) from college surveys of faculties and staffs regarding predicted program enrollment growth, new program needs, and associated facilities needs 4. External Data (qualitative) from community stakeholders regarding efficacy of preceding data sources, new and existing program needs, and other related considerations What are the key questions? As a document, the LRP provides evidence that an objective, comprehensive and systematic process has been utilized to forecast, analyze, summarize, and compare all data sources. The LRP should clearly reflect how the collected data answers questions in three important categories: PEOPLE: The potential for economic and, therefore, enrollment growth is related to population growth and educational attainment. What is the outlook for population growth in your community? Population increases imply growth in the potential pool of students. Which population segments are growing the fastest? An increase in older segments implies different program needs than those of younger segments.
LRP document & triangulation guide Prepared by Dr. Betty H. Adams Page 1 of 4
What is the general level of educational attainment in the community? Low levels of educational attainment may imply a greater need for Basic Skills programs.
PROGRAMS: How do currently offered programs match up with those anticipated to be needed given expected trends? What programs currently exist and what level of enrollment growth is predicted? How do current programs stack up with the Critical Occupations associated with High Growth Industries and Occupations as predicted by CCbenefits or other comparable report? What NEW programs will be needed?
FACILITIES: What are the general implications for additional facilities required to accommodate NEW & EXISTING Programs? How is LRP data triangulated into Key Implications? The Key Implications section of the LRP is most important in that it seeks to reduce all data into a list of concurring indications. This section is the culmination of the entire LRP process and report and is derived through an iterative (repetitive) process. A broad-based college planning committee examines, compares, and analyzes all data sources. This committee meets as many times as is necessary to distill a handful of reliable key findings. To thoroughly analyze and triangulate the collected data, committees should consider what the four data sources indicate about People, Programs, and Facilities. The following questions provide a framework from which committees can begin the process of triangulation: 1. Triangulation of service area data projections CCbenefits Report or other comparable data People Is the service area population – the pool of potential students – predicted to grow or decline? To what degree? Which population segments are predicted to increase/decrease most? What is the current & predicted educational attainment of people in the service area? Programs What are predicted high growth industries? What programs are required to serve these anticipate needs? Are these programs currently in place at the college? Facilities No inferences regarding facilities’ needs should be made from this data
LRP document & triangulation guide Prepared by Dr. Betty H. Adams Page 2 of 4
2. Triangulation of enrollment projections Curriculum, Continuing Education, and Basic Skills Programs People No inferences regarding community demographics can be made from this data alone Programs In general, is enrollment predicted to grow or decline in each of the three program areas? To what degree is growth or decline indicated? Any surprises or unexpected developments revealed in these predictions? Facilities No inferences regarding facilities’ needs should be made from this data
3. Triangulation of internal feedback Faculty & Staff Program Planning Surveys People No inferences regarding community demographics should be made from this data Programs In general, do faculty & staff predict minimal, moderate, or maximum growth for EXISTING programs in each of the three program areas? Any surprises or unexpected developments revealed in these predictions? How do faculty & staff projections match up with 1. Enrollment Projections? 2. Service Area Data – programs associated with predicted critical and high-growth occupations? Facilities Is additional or renovated space required to accommodate growth for EXISTING programs anticipated to experience moderate and maximum growth? What type of space e.g. classroom, lab, etc? Is additional or renovated space required to accommodate growth for NEW programs anticipated to experience moderate and maximum growth? What type of space e.g. classroom, lab, etc?
LRP document & triangulation guide Prepared by Dr. Betty H. Adams Page 3 of 4
4. Triangulation of external feedback Listening Forum Feedback People Do stakeholders agree with predicted demographic trends in the CCbenefits Report (or other comparable reports)? To what degree are stakeholders in agreement e.g. Do they agree with the entire report or only parts? On which parts do they agree or disagree and why? What additional information/data should the college consider? Programs Do stakeholders agree with predicted demographic trends in the CCbenefits Report (or other comparable reports)? To what degree are stakeholders in agreement e.g. Do they agree with the entire report or only parts? On which parts do they agree or disagree and why? What additional information/data should the college consider? Facilities No inferences regarding facilities’ needs should be made from this data
LRP document & triangulation guide Prepared by Dr. Betty H. Adams Page 4 of 4