RATEL PROJECT “US IN SERBIA”

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RATEL PROJECT “US IN SERBIA” Powered By Docstoc
					 UNIVERSAL SERVICE
WIRELESS BROADBAND
  POLICY IN SERBIA
  Prof.dr Nataša Gospić, University Belgrade
   dr Dragan Bogojević, University Belgrade
         dr Milenko Cvetinovic, RATEL




            09 September, ITU Workshop,        1
                     GENEVE
   BASIC REFERENCES
• TELECOM ACT

• STRATEGY FOR TELECOM SECTOR
  DEVELOPMENT 2006-2010

• STRATEGY FOR INFORMATION SOCIETY
  IN SERBIA

• EU DIRECTIVES
           09 September, ITU Workshop,   2
                    GENEVE
     Telecom Act -Legal provisions
• Universal service” means the set of telecommunications
  services of specified quality and scope which shall be available
  to all users of the public telecommunication network in the
  Republic of Serbia, at reasonable prices;
• The Ministry responsibility is to define the list of universal
  services to be provided by the operators of public fixed
  telecommunications networks, based on the proposal made by
  the Agency;
• The Agency shall designate the telecommunications operator of
  a public telecommunications network that shall be responsible
  for the provision of universal services.

                        09 September, ITU Workshop,           3
                                 GENEVE
Initial scope of universal service
• The initial scope of universal service must include the
  following:
   – 1.access to a public fixed telephone service, including the
     service of data transmission using voice telephony which
     enables quality access to the Internet;
   – 2. special measures to ensure equivalent access to the public
     voice service for the disabled and socially disadvantaged users;
   – 3. free access to emergency services;
   – 4. public pay phone service; and
   – 5. access to telephone operator and directory services.
• NO BROADBAND SERVICES INCLUDED
• HOWEVER, INFORMATION SOCIETY STRATEGY,
  AND OBLIGATIONS FROM SEE AGENDA PLUS
  DOCUMENT CHALLENGE BB ACCESS FOR ALL
  SCHOOLS

                        09 September, ITU Workshop,                     4
                                 GENEVE
            TELECOM STRATEGY
               OBJECTIVES
• Growth of the Internet penetration rate over 30%;
• Increase of broadband service users penetration;
• In order to provide broadband network connection to as
  many residents as possible at affordable price, relevant
  state authorities need to:
   – subsidize building of broadband networks in geographic areas
     where such building is not profitable for commercial providers;
   – provide public Internet access terminals in public places
     (schools, public institutions, libraries, post offices, train and bus
     stations, health centers, community centers, centers for
     agricultural products, etc.);
   – prevent attempts of competition limitation and market
     monopolization;


                          09 September, ITU Workshop,                        5
                                   GENEVE
     US IN STRATEGY FOR
   TELECOM DEVELOPMENT

 Establish the Fund for universal service cost recovery
  and ensure availability of the universal service;
 In order to stimulate competition, fulfill universal service
  obligation and apply technologies enabling fast building
  of access networks and primarily broadband access, the
  Ministry will adopt assignment for fixed wireless access.


3,5GHz

                      09 September, ITU Workshop,                6
                               GENEVE
                            3,5 GHz
 REGULATORY AGENCY FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS - RATEL
   Proposals of assignment plans for 3,5 GHz frequency band and division
    of the territory of the Republic of Serbia into areas, i.e. towns, applying
    the criteria of attractiveness for foreign investors and technical
    optimality. Allocation of radio-frequency bands will be carried out in
    accordance with the Law, through a public tender procedure for a fixed
    telecommunications network license.
   Long-term user protection, regulatory obligations and limits, numbering
    availability, promotion of market competition, amount of initial
    investments, technical and economic feasibility and, in particular, to
    efficient radio-frequency usage.
   In case there is a need, propose to the Ministry to enable license
    issuance for operation in other frequency bands as well for needs of
    building of networks, which include fixed wireless access.




                         09 September, ITU Workshop,                      7
                                  GENEVE
 CREATION OF US PROJECT
• In order to fulfill the obligation of introducing the
  Universal Service Policy, NRA-RATEL got obligation
  to:
   – Make a detailed overview of the situation of
      telecom infrastructure and telecom service
      provisioning in the whole territory of the Republic
      of Serbia, with proposal for US solutions

• PROJECT STARTED IN JULY 2007
• The project is executed by joint work of Transport and
  Traffic Engineering Faculty, University Belgrade and
  RATEL.

                    09 September, ITU Workshop,             8
                             GENEVE
OUTLINES OF THE US PROJECT
1. INTRODUCTION
2. PRESENT SITUATION – ANALISYS (I
   PHASE)
3. RESEARCH IN FIELDS (II PHASE)
4. RESULTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS




            09 September, ITU Workshop,   9
                     GENEVE
 I PHASE OF THE US PROJECT
• Analysis of current telecom development in 24 regions and city of
  Belgrade
    – 7.498.001 inhabitants,
    – 2.521.190 households
    – 4.715 settlements
• DEFINITION OF THE DATA BASES INLUDING:
    – number of populated places (settlements with more then 50 inhabitants
      and/or 20 households)
    – inhabitants
    – inhabitants aging
    – migration parameters
    – employments
    – GDP on municipality level
    – number of fixed phones
    – teledensity
    – identification of settlement without telephone,
    – identification of US critical municipality/region


                           09 September, ITU Workshop,                  10
                                    GENEVE
I PHASE-MUNICIPALITY’S DATABASE

 • 161 Municipalities
 • Municipality’s statistics includes:
   – Existing fixed telephony services
   – Mobile signal coverage
   – Internet
   – Public pay phones
   – Marginalized social categories
   – Number of handicap persons and their
     locations

                  09 September, ITU Workshop,   11
                           GENEVE
           THE DATABASE FOR
             SETTLEMENTS
• For each settlement (4.715 ):
  – Number of fixed telephone subscribers
  – Inhabitants index 2002/1991
  – Mobile signal coverage for:
     • settlements with 0%, 4% and 10% penetration
  – Internet access



                    09 September, ITU Workshop,      12
                             GENEVE
Extract from Settlements Statistics,
                   based on data from 2002 and 2006
Rigion                           Number of                                          %MTL/100
Municipality                    inhabitants    Index.     Households   fixed tel       inhabit
Settlement                                    2002/1991




Republic of Serbia                7498001       99,0         2521190    2410060          32.1%
Central Serbia                    5466009       97,5         1811233    1794499          32.8%
Vojvodina                         2031992       103,1         709957     615561          30.3%


City of Belgrade                  1576124       101,5         567325     636414          40.4%


 Barajevo                           24641       118,2           8254        9772         39.7%
 Arnajevo                              853      94,8             276          231        27.1%
 Barajevo                            8325       136,2           2789        3533         42.4%
 Bacevac                             1624       136,4            561          820        50.5%
 Beljina                               810      96,7             303          247        30.5%
 Bozdarevac                          1218       76,1             382          484        39.7%

                            09 September, ITU Workshop,                                     13
                                     GENEVE
  Criteria for definition of critical
        settlements for US
• Basic:
  + 20 households and/or
  + 50 inhabitants

• Additional:
  – no mobile signal
  – inhabitant’s index (2002/1991)
  – school, post office, ambulance, on the border
    to EU.....

                 09 September, ITU Workshop,        14
                          GENEVE
       Structuring of critical
        settlements for US
• Number of inhabitants
• Potential touristy
  locations
• Natural resources
• Requirements for BB
  access




                 09 September, ITU Workshop,   15
                          GENEVE
          Tariff packages
• Social categories
• People with special needs
• Overview on other utilities tariff
  packages
• Needs for BB services



              09 September, ITU Workshop,   16
                       GENEVE
Identification of US settlements - example




               09 September, ITU Workshop,   17
                        GENEVE
                II PHASE
• RESEARCH IN FIELD
• COMPARISON OF REAL SITUATION WITH I PHASE
  OBTAINED DATA
• FINAL RESULTS
• EVALUATION OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
  – ELEMENTS FOR TECHO-ECONOMIC ANALISYS
• RECOMMENDATIONS
• PROPOSAL FOR INITIAL
  US FUND


                09 September, ITU Workshop,   18
                         GENEVE
         Research in field
• Questionnaire for field investigation is
  prepared.
• The Questionnaire contains 20 questions.
• 14 regions, 40 municipalities and 253
  settlements are visited.
• About 30 persons were included in this
  work.

               09 September, ITU Workshop,   19
                        GENEVE
         II PHASE RESULTS
• Based on answers from the Questionnaire
  following conclusions are carried out:
  – Comparison of number of inhabitants and number of
    households in field and in statistical data are high
    (correlation coefficient > 0.9)
  – Correlation between number of phones in “electronic
    yellow pages” and number from field investigation is
    high (correlation coefficient > 0.9), but only if
    compared data are not older then 6 months and if
    elaboration is performed on settlements with fixed
    phone penetration less then 10%.
                   09 September, ITU Workshop,             20
                            GENEVE
   Estimation of needs for US in
settlements with penetration ≤ 10%
• Needs for fixed phone roughly could be measured as
  number of households without phones.
• Fixed telephony is main request
• As about 97% of settlements are covered by mobile
  signals and in average more then 100% of inhabitants
  have mobile phones, needs for mobile telephony “are
  proved in practice”.
• Analysis shows that computer penetration is very low
  (2%)
• About 35% of analyzed settlements expressed interest
  for Internet access


                   09 September, ITU Workshop,           21
                            GENEVE
  Economical and telecommunications
            development
Close correlation has been identified between economical
development and telecom development; Most critical places were on
the south, where the economic development is lower.
          Level of
         ниво телефона
          teledensity
          200
          180
          160
          140
          120
          100
           80
           60
           40
           20
            0
                0         50           100          150          200                 250
                                                                         ниво дохотка
                                                                       level of national income

      Relation between level of telephone penetration and level of national income on
                                     municipality level


                               09 September, ITU Workshop,                                        22
                                        GENEVE
    US for people with disabilities and
         low income households
•   Background-data to start with
      National statistics – number and categories of possible users
      existing special measures in Serbia and other countries
•   Approach
      Defining measures to ensure 3A (Availability & Accessibility& Affordability) for
       disabled and low income users
      Analyzing social categories (user groups) who can enjoy rights on special
       measures (number and needs) along with different sets of services (fixed
       telephony and/or mobile telephony and/or Internet access) and costs
•   Problems
      inconsistency in disability definition
      Lack of reliable statistical data – (severe variations from 400 to 800 thousands)-
       not all in system of social care
•   Conclusion / Solution proposal
      Measures to ensure access to special payphones and other equipment
      Models of special tariff schemes (five models for three different sets of services
       and two types of user groups)



                               09 September, ITU Workshop,                                23
                                        GENEVE
                          In numbers…
                   Residential                                 Business

How many?          total number vary from 60000 to             total number 500
Potential users    500000. Estimated number - around           Estimated number - 43
                   170000

Who?               People with 100% disability (vision,        institutions for accommodation
Included           hearing, muscular strength), or less then   and social care of disabled
categories         100% but users of social care,              people and institutions for
                   households with disabled children or with   children
                   low income (users of family subvention)
What?                                                          *public fixed telephone:
Subventions        *public fixed telephone: monthly- 50%       monthly- 50% of subscription
                   of subscription fee and 300 free impulses   fee and 600 free impulses
                   *broadband access - 50% of monthly          *broadband access - 100% of
                   subscription fee for ADSL 1024/128 kb/s     monthly subscription fee for
                                                               ADSL 1024/128 kb/s
                   (mobile telephony - special tariffs in
                   case no access to public fixed telephone)


How much?
                   5104320,79 € ≈ 34,72% of US fund
Estimated annual
                   (including VAT: 6023098,533 € ≈ 40,97% of US fund)
costs

                                 09 September, ITU Workshop,                           24
                                          GENEVE
Methodology for Appropriate US
Technology Selection




                     Fuzzy logic model



          09 September, ITU Workshop,    25
                   GENEVE
       Techno-economic analysis
• Techno-economic analysis for all US critical
  region is performed with several technological
  options:
   –   VSAT
   –   Mobile GSM / GPRS / UMTS
   –   WiMAX
   –   CDMA 450 MHz
   –   Classical wireline access networks based on copper
       and/or optical technologies.
• Results of the techno-economic analysis are
  used for calculation of initial amount for US fund.

                      09 September, ITU Workshop,           26
                               GENEVE
        US policy scenarios:
• Based on:
  – Strategy for telecom development
  – Results from Phase I and Phase II
  – Obligations from approved eSEE Agenda plus
    (November 2007, Sarajevo) and
  – EU Directive on US 2002/22
• The Project proposes three scenarios for
  US policy

               09 September, ITU Workshop,   27
                        GENEVE
Proposed scenarios for US policy
• Scenario A: US should include the same set of services as it is
  defined in Telecom Act with additional service for functional Internet
  (EU Directive 2002/22) and broadband access for schools (eSEE
  Agenda plus) and institutions for handicap people.
• Scenario B: US should include different set of services per different
  regions, depending on their telecommunications and economical
  development and local authorities’ plans and initiatives. This
  scenario includes broadband services as part of US in regions that
  have less then 20 settlements without fixed phones, proper
  telecommunications infrastructure and economical development
  above republic average. For other regions Scenario A should be
  applied.
• Scenario C: Implementation of the Scenario A and the Scenario B
  (broadband services) on the following way: in the period from 2009-
  2010 application of Scenario A for all regions and beyond 2010
  application of Scenario B for broadband services.


                         09 September, ITU Workshop,                   28
                                  GENEVE
            What is next?
• Based on findings from this Project,
  RATEL should propose US policy
• The proposed policy will be publicly
  discussed and after that it should be
  approved by the Ministry for
  telecommunication and Information
  Society.
• IMPLEMENTATION OF THE POLICY
  FOR US
               09 September, ITU Workshop,   29
                        GENEVE
               Bill Gates
• “We always overestimate the change
  that will occur in the next two years and
  underestimate the change that will
  occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself
  be lulled into inaction.“




               09 September, ITU Workshop,   30
                        GENEVE
THANK YOU FOR YOUR
    ATTENTION !

       n.gospic@sf.bg.ac.rs
      d.bogojevic@sf.bg.ac.rs
  milenko.cvetinovic@ratel.org.rs
          09 September, ITU Workshop,   31
                   GENEVE