East Africa
Tradeoff Analysis
Workshop
Workshop goals and strategy
Goals
Strategy
Monday Introduction tools to decision
Introduce TOA approach andto TOA approach makers
and scientists
Tuesday AM Conceptual framework
Develop workplans for collaborating scientific teams
Tuesday PM Introduction to TOA software
Wednesday/ Disciplinary breakout groups
Thursday AM
Thursday PM TOA applications to Machakos system
Friday Collaborating team work plans &
presentations
Today’s program
8:30-9:30 Opening session
9:30-10:00 Introduction of participants, workshop goals
10:00-10:30 Coffee
10:30-11:15 TOA conceptual framework
11:15-12:15 Illustrative results from other case studies
12:30-13:30 Lunch
13:30-14:00 Machakos tradeoffs - scenarios (breakout groups)
15:00-15:30 Coffee
15:30-16:00 Reports from breakout groups
16:00-17:00 Machakos scenarios and results
Tradeoff Analysis System
Policy Decision Support
for Agriculture
Unanswered questions in ag. science
For example:
1. Why are ag productivity and rural incomes low – and in
many cases declining – in some regions of the world?
2. Why do many farmers use few, if any, purchased inputs
and achieve extraordinarily low yields, while others in
the same regions achieve high yields?
A new approach: Agriculture as a
complex system…
Interconnected physical, biological and human systems
varying over space and time
complex behavior:
- fallacy of the “representative farm”
- emergent properties
- multiple equilibria
- the “O-ring” phenomenon: critical linkages
An explanation for the highly varied performance of ag
systems…and new insights into how that performance
could be improved?
Integrated Assessment Approach to
Modeling Ag. Production Systems
Soils & Climate Data Economic Data
Crop/Livestock Models Yield Economic Model
Environmental Land Use &
Process Models Management
Environmental Economic
Outcomes Outcomes
What is Tradeoff Analysis?
Tradeoff analysis is a process designed to link policy
decision makers to teams of scientists with these new
data and tools.
These tools can be used to understand the behavior of
complex agricultural systems and how they may
respond to changes in policy, technology, and
environmental conditions.
What is Tradeoff Analysis?
•Public stakeholders Is TOA
•Policy makers always a
•Scientists linear
process?
Research priority setting
•Identify sustainability criteria
•Formulate hypotheses as potential tradeoffs
Project design & implementation
•Identify disciplines for research project
•Identify models and data needs
define units of analysis
Inform stakeholders
•Collect data and implement disciplinary research
What is the Tradeoff Analysis
model?
Tradeoff Analysis model is quantify
The It helps scientific teams to a tool to
and visualize tradeoffs between by
model agricultural production systemskey
indicators under alternative policy,
integrating spatial data and disciplinary
simulation models.
technology and environmental
scenarios of interest to policy
decision makers and other
stakeholders.
What is the Tradeoff Analysis
model?
A modular approach to
integration of spatial
data with bio-physical NUTMON
and economic models Weather
to simulate agricultural GIS
systems… Leachp
NUTMON
GIS Weather
Survey
DSSAT TOA
DSSAT Survey
Economic
models
Economic
DBMS models Policy
DBMS
Policy
Tradeoff Curves: Sustainability
Indicators, incentives and scenarios
Soil Fertility Conservation
Soil Carbon
• 2
“Additionality”
Conventional
•
1
Econ Returns
Concepts: baseline, additionality, and permanence
Tradeoff curves
A useful way to communicate properties of
complex agricultural systems:
• Economic principle of opportunity cost
• Intuitive appeal
• Easy-to-understand (2-d)
• Quantifies concept of sustainability
• Represents risk: distributions of outcomes
– Health risk thresholds
– Climate vulnerability
– Poverty threshold (income/person/day)
– Food security threshold (calories/person/day)
Other visualization tools.
Pesticide
leaching
Low
50% Current 150%
High
Potato prices
Pesticide
leaching
Low
50% Current 150%
High
Potato prices
Pesticide
leaching
Low
50% Current 150%
High
Potato prices
Pesticide
leaching
Low
50% Current 150%
High
Potato prices
Pesticide
leaching
Low
50% Current 150%
High
Potato prices
Pesticide
leaching
Low
50% Current 150%
High
Potato prices
Pesticide
leaching
Low
50% Current 150%
High
Potato prices
Pesticide
leaching
Low
50% Current 150%
High
Potato prices
Pesticide
leaching
Low
50% Current 150%
High
Potato prices
Examples
• Economic – environment – health tradeoffs
associated with pesticide use.
• Sustainability of agriculture on steeply
sloped hillsides (hydric and tillage erosion,
terracing, carbon).
• Carbon sequestration as a mechanism to
finance adoption of sustainable production
systems and institutions.