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10/28/2011
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Palisade Corporation Rate Example Model







Projecting Interest Rates and Other Trends:

Random Trend and Random Walk

In this example, distribution functions are used to model uncertain trends. Both a simple random trend and

a random walk are illustrated. For each iteration, a new value is sampled for each period in a trend. This

allows your results to include the effects of all possible trend values as opposed to a single set of best

estimates. In the random trend there is no correlation between periods. In the random walk, the value in

each period is influenced by the value of the previous period.







Loan Amount $25,000



Random Trend Analysis

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Interest Rate #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

Remaining Principal $25,000 $23,750 $22,500 $21,250 $20,000 $18,750 $17,500 $16,250 $15,000 $13,750

Principal Payment $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250

Interest Payment #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

Net Payment #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

Total (RandomTrend) #NAME?





Random Walk Analysis

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Interest Rate #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

Remaining Principal $25,000 $23,750 $22,500 $21,250 $20,000 $18,750 $17,500 $16,250 $15,000 $13,750

Principal Payment $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250

Interest Payment #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

Net Payment #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

Total (Random Walk) #NAME?









Page 1

Palisade Corporation Rate Example Model









11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

$12,500 $11,250 $10,000 $8,750 $7,500 $6,250 $5,000 $3,750 $2,500 $1,250

$1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?









11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

$12,500 $11,250 $10,000 $8,750 $7,500 $6,250 $5,000 $3,750 $2,500 $1,250

$1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250 $1,250

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?

#NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME? #NAME?









Page 2



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