CAUSAL CHAIN
ANALYSIS
• What is CCA?
• What are problem and objective
trees?
• Why use CCA in SEAs?
• How can CCA be used in an SEA
for the tourism sector?
• Group Exercise
WHAT IS CCA?
Causal chain analysis (CCA) is a means of tracing
the immediate or direct causes of an impact or
problem back to its root causes. Often the
immediate cause of an impact is not its
fundamental cause. Tackling direct causes may
not solve the problem; tackling the root cause may
solve more than one problem. CCA requires the
development of conceptual models that represent
the chain of cause-effect relationships in which
activities lead to changes, changes lead to
impacts, and impacts lead to responses. It is
possible to trace both forwards and backwards
linkages, and often deeper understanding can be
achieved by doing both.
Lack of stakeholder Poor decisions on Excessive influence
energy choices for rapid
input to energy sector of external parties
growth in demand
Inadequate project Inadequate upstream planning
assessment in energy sector
No harmonized decision
system in GMS
PROBLEM
TREE Lack of environmental
criteria to guide decisions
Poor environmental
outcomes
Loss of aquatic Increased water
Destruction of Increased bank erosion
biodiversity and pollution
freshwater habitats and siltation
endangered species
Reduced river and
Impact on poor fishing Reduction of future Impact on health of
estuary depths with
dependent households options downstream water users
impact on navigation
Increased stakeholder Improved decisions on Reduced influence of
energy choices for rapid
input to energy sector external parties
growth in demand
Basin-wide approach
Improved project Upstream planning in energy
to water and energy
assessment sector, linked to economic plans
planning
Harmonized decision
system in GMS
OBJECTIVE
Agreed environmental
TREE criteria to guide decisions
Improved environmental
outcomes from Ecologically sound
hydropower schemes river flows maintained
Maintenance of aquatic Improved water
Protection of freshwater Protected river banks
biodiversity and little quality, both surface
habitats and minimal siltation
loss of species and groundwater
Maintained river and
Benefits to poor fishing Biodiversity use and non- Improved health of
estuary depths with
dependent households use values retained downstream water users
improved navigation
Steps in CCA ….
• Step 1: Setting baseline conditions –
what is the problem
• Step 2: Identifying impacts – who
does the problem affect and what
are the consequences
• Step 3: Building a network of cause-
effect relationships – activities =>
change => impacts => responses
Change in
Potential areas for
Economic activities environmental Impacts
conditions responses
Increased Monoculture -changes in land use -vulnerability to pests -commodity support
agricultural cropping pattern -Loss of biodiversity schemes encouraging
production systems -simplification of -Loss of multi- diversified cropping
ecosystems functionality -special lending scheme to
for export
-reduced flood control -Soil erosion family farms
Increased functions -Climate change
agricultural
production Shifting -deforestation and land -increased flood hazard -rationalization of land
for export cultivation clearance -loss of biodiversity tenure system
-change in land-use -reduced forest cover -conversion of shifting
pattern -incidence of climate cultivation land into
-soil erosion change permanent cultivated land
-reduced flood control -compensation scheme for
functions reverting shifting cultivation
land back to forest
Use of -pest resistance -loss of wildlife -biological pest control
pesticides and -physical and chemical -worker contamination -restrict use of chemicals
chemical change in soil -higher incidence of -change cropping systems
fertilizers -water contamination from diseases -higher tax on inorganic
runoff -limited water resources fertilizers and rebates on
-human exposure to organic fertilizers
contaminants -certification scheme
ROOT CAUSES LINKED
TO ULTIMATE EFFECTS
POLICY
RESPONSES
LINKED TO
EFFECTS
CCA IN TOURISM SECTOR
• Root causes – increased leisure
time, cheap travel, unequal
economies, adventure etc.
• Immediate causes – promotion of
Cambodia as tourism destination,
cheap accommodations, interesting
heritage and natural sites etc.
• Immediate effects – increased
tourist numbers, hotel construction,
airport upgrades, tour guides etc.
TOURISM CCA (cont.)
• Ultimate effects – water
pollution, coastal erosion,
noise, air pollution, crime,
prostitution, drugs etc.
• Impacts – health impacts, loss
of biodiversity, HIV/AIDS, child
exploitation etc.
• Responses – ecotourism,
increased penalties, tourism
police etc.
GROUP EXERCISE
• Group 1 – Main problem is identified as
“dolphin tours threatened by dolphin
extinction”
• Group 2 – Main problem is identified as
“drug use at full moon parties on the beach”
• Group 3 – Main problem is identified as
“tourism in Cambodia is growing too
quickly”
• Construct a CCA that links ultimate causes
and immediate causes to the problem, then
identifies impacts of the problem (who and
how), and possible responses.