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CHANGING TIMES CHANGING VALUES

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CHANGING TIMES CHANGING VALUES Powered By Docstoc
					 Recent Employment Projections for the U.S., 2008 – 2018
Slower population growth and a decreasing overall labor force participation rate are
expected to contribute to a slowdown in labor force growth. The labor force is projected to
grow by 8.2% for 2008-18 versus 12.1% for 1998- 2008.

Projected employment growth will be concentrated in the “service-producing” sector,
continuing a long-term shift from the goods-producing sector of the economy. For 2008-18,
service-producing industries are projected to add 14.6 million jobs – 96%of the projected
increase.

The two industries projected to have the largest increases are: Professional and Business
Services, and Health Care Services … together adding over 8 million new jobs, over half of
all new jobs in the U.S. economy.

At a more detailed level, 3 of the 10 detailed industries projected to have the largest job
increases are in Professional and Business Services, including: management, scientific,
and technical consulting; computer systems design; and employment services.

Four of the top 10 are in Health Care Services, including: physicians’ offices, home health
care, services for the elderly and persons with disabilities, and nursing care facilities.

Of the 10 detailed industries projected to have the largest declines, 4 are in manufacturing.
But the one with the single largest decline in jobs is “department stores”.


                           U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dec. 10, 2009
                                   Major Sectors of the Economy
                        Goods Producing vs. Services Producing
Goods-producing Sectors:
Construction – construction companies, electrical contractors, other special trade contractors, etc.

Manufacturing – manufacturing of all types of goods

Natural resources & mining – farms and ranches, oil and gas extraction, other mining, etc.

Services-producing Sectors:
Educational services – local, state, and private schools and other education providers

Financial activities – firms providing financial, and insurance services, and real estate and rental services

Health care & social assistance – public and private providers of health care including hospitals, doctors’ offices, and
assisted living facilities

Information services – print, software, and data publishing firms; movie, video, and sound production and distribution;
broadcasting and telecommunications providers; and information and data processing firms

Leisure & hospitality services – hotels and other lodging, restaurants, sports teams, theme parks, performing arts, etc.

Professional & business services – consulting services, accountants, legal services, engineering, temporary help firms,
etc.

Public administration – government establishments (federal, state, local) administering programs (except education &
health)

Trade, transportation & utilities – wholesale and retail trade establishments, airports, messenger services, power plants,
etc.
Job Composition                                     Shares of All Jobs by Major Occupational Category in Montana, 2008
in Montana by                                                                                                                          Office and A dministrative Suppo rt


Occupational                                                                                                                           M anagement



Grouping, 2008                                                                                                                         B usiness & Financial Operatio ns

                                                                                                                                       Legal (lawyers, judges, legal
                                                                                                                                       suppo rt)
                                                         P ro duc t io n
The pie chart shows the                               ( m a nuf a c t uring)                                                           Life, P hysical, and So cial Science
relative shares of all jobs in      T r ansp o r t at i o n &
                                                                                           O f f ic e a nd
                                                                                    A dm inis t ra t iv e S uppo rt                    A rchitecture and Engineering
Montana accounted for by            M at er i al M o vi ng

different occupational                                                                                                                 A rts, Design, Entertmnt, Spo rts, &
                                                                                                                                       M edia
groupings, as estimated by the    F o o d Pr ep & Ser vi ng                                                                            Co mputer and M athematical
Montana Department of Labor                R el at ed

and Industry for 2008.                                                                                                                 Healthcare P ractitio ners and
                                                                                                                                       Technical
Occupational groupings are                                                                               M a na ge m e nt
                                                                                                                                       Healthcare Suppo rt
color-coded in the chart to
reflect differing parts of the                                                                               B usi ness & F i nanci al
                                                                                                                                       P erso nal Care and Service
                                                                                                                   O p er at i o ns
economy. Jobs in office                                                                                                                Educatio n, Training, and Library
administration, management,                                                                                   Li f e, Physi cal , and So ci al
and business and financial        Sal es & R el at ed                                                                    Sci ence Co mmunity and So cial Services

services are shown in blue                                                                                                             P ro tective Service (po lice, fire)
“teal”. Together they
                                                                                                                                       Co nstructio n and Extractio n
constitute the largest
contributors to overall jobs in   B l d g & G r o und s C l eani ng                                                                    Installatio n, M aintenance, & Repair
                                             & M ai nt .                                              Heal t hcar e Pr act i t i o ner s
the economy.                                                                                                 and T echni cal
                                                                                                                                       B ldg & Gro unds Cleaning & M aint.

                                     I nst al l at i o n, M ai nt enance,
Jobs in creative arts and                           & R ep ai r                               H e a lt hc a re S uppo rt               Sales & Related
sciences, broadly defined, are                                                              P e rs o na l C a re a nd                  Fo o d P rep & Serving Related
shown in bright “teal” (life                      C o nst r uct i o n and
                                                                                                    S e rv ic e

scientist, engineers, artists,                         Ext r act i o n         E duc a t io n, T ra ining,                             Transpo rtatio n & M aterial M o ving
                                                                                    a nd Libra ry
etc.). Ones related to health                                                                                                          P ro ductio n (manufacturing)
care are shown in blue. Ones
in construction, building                                                                                                              Farming, Fishing, and Fo restry

trades, and maintenance are
shown in red and light red.
Current & Projected                                   Total Jobs, Current & Projected for Montana, 2008 & 2018

Jobs in Montana by                          Office and Adm inistrative Support                                                                  83,887


Occupational                                                 Sales and Related                                                  56,901

                                        Food Preparation and Serving Related                                                50,071
Grouping, 2008 vs.                                                                                                 37,497
                                                  Construction and Extraction
2018                                         Transportation & Material Moving                                   33,334

                                               Education, Training, and Library                                31,374
The number of jobs in Montana by
“wage and salary establishments”        Healthcare Practitioners and Technical                                30,904
totaled about 474,300 in 2008,                                                                         23,902
                                                                  Managem ent
according to estimates by the
Montana Department of Labor and          Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maint.                          23,707
Industry. The Department recently           Installation, Maintenance, & Repair                       22,746
estimated that these jobs would
                                                   Production (m anufacturing)                       21,395
grow to about 526,600 over the next
ten years, or by 2018. This would                   Personal Care and Service                     17,695
be an 11% increase in the total
                                              Business & Financial Operations                     17,272
number of jobs.
                                                           Healthcare Support                     16,438
The chart shows where these jobs                                                           10,227
                                               Com m unity and Social Services
are by major occupational category
(22 major categories of                      Life, Physical, and Social Science           8,920
                                                                                                                                         2018
occupational groupings). The                                                              8,637
                                               Protective Service (police, fire)
largest number of jobs, now and                                                                                                          2008
                                                                                          8,334
projected, are in “office and                    Architecture and Engineering
administrative support” (office       Arts, Design, Entertm nt, Sports, & Media          7,503
administrative, clerical, and
                                                  Com puter and Mathem atical            7,047
operational personnel), 16% of all
jobs. The 2nd largest category of               Farm ing, Fishing, and Forestry         5,100
jobs is “sales and jobs related to                                                     3,758
                                        Legal (law yers, judges, legal support)
sales” (mainly retail and services
trade workers), 11% of all jobs.                                                   0   10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
Jobs in “food preparation and
                                                                                                Source: Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry
serving” represent 10% of all jobs.
Projected Job                                    Projected Job Growth in MT by Major Occupational Area, 2008 - 2018
Growth in Montana                             Office and Adm inistrative Support                                                                     6,990
Over the Next Ten                         Food Preparation and Serving Related                                                             5,366

Years, by Major                                                Sales and Related                                                      5,038

Occupational                              Healthcare Practitioners and Technical                                                   4,615
                                           Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maint.                                          3,301
Grouping                                            Construction and Extraction                                    2,838

The chart shows projected growth                      Personal Care and Service                                    2,800
in jobs in Montana by major                                  Healthcare Support                                  2,548
occupational groupings, as
                                                Business & Financial Operations                            2,194
estimated by the Montana
Department of Labor.                                                  Production                          2,053
                                               Transportation & Material Moving                           2,033
The biggest increase in jobs will be
in “office and administrative                 Installation, Maintenance, & Repair                         1,962
support”, which is currently the                                    Managem ent                          1,869
largest job provider in Montana. It
                                                 Com m unity and Social Services                        1,762
will account for 13% of all new jobs.
“Food preparation and serving”                   Education, Training, and Library                       1,703
will account for 10% of all new jobs,               Com puter and Mathem atical                 1,006
as will “sales and related jobs”.
“Healthcare practitioners and                    Protective Service (police, fire)              998
technical staff” will account for                  Architecture and Engineering                972
about 9% of new jobs. Together                 Life, Physical, and Social Science              845
these four would account for about
42% of all new jobs in the Montana      Arts, Design, Entertm nt, Sports, & Media         591
economy, under these projections.                 Farm ing, Fishing, and Forestry        481
                                          Legal (law yers, judges, legal support)        351
Another third of all new jobs would
come from the next seven
                                                                                     0    1,000       2,000 3,000          4,000   5,000    6,000 7,000   8,000
categories, all with job growth
exceeding 2000.                                                                                   Source: Montana Dept. of Labor & Industry
Composition of                                                 Shares of All Job Growth in Montana by Major Occupational
Projected Job                                                                      Category, 2008-2018
                                                                                                                                                         Office and A dministrative

Growth in                                                                                                                                                Suppo rt
                                                                                                                                                         B usiness & Financial
                                                                                                                                                         Operatio ns
Montana, 2008-                                                                                                                                           M anagement
                                                          T ra ns po rt a t io n &
2018                                                      M a t e ria l M o v ing                          O f f ic e a nd
                                                                                                        A dm inis t ra t iv e
                                                                                                                                                         Legal (lawyers, judges, legal
                                                                                                                                                         suppo rt)
                                                P ro duc t io n
                                                                                                            S uppo rt                                    Co mputer and M athematical
                                             ( m a nuf a c t uring)
The chart shows the expected
                                                                                                                                                         A rchitecture and Engineering
composition or makeup of job
growth in Montana by major                                                                                                                               Life, P hysical, and So cial
                                                                                                                                B usi ness & F i nanci al Science
occupational grouping or                     Sal es and R el at ed                                                                    O p er at i o ns
                                                                                                                                                         A rts, Design, Entertmnt, Spo rts,
category, as estimated by the                                                                                                                            & M edia
Montana Department of Labor                                                                                                                              Healthcare P ractitio ners and
and Industry.                                                                                                                        M anag ement        Technical
                                                                                                                                                         Healthcare Suppo rt

“Office and administrative                                                                                                                               P erso nal Care and Service
support” accounts for 13% of       F o o d Pr ep ar at i o n and
                                       Ser vi ng R el at ed                                                                                              Co mmunity and So cial Services
all new jobs and along with
“business and financial                                                                                                                                  Educatio n, Training, and Library
operations” (4%),
“management”, and “legal”,           I nst al l at i o n, M ai nt enance,
                                                                                                                                                         P ro tective Service (po lice, fire)
                                                    & R ep ai r
accounts for 21% of all new                                                                                                                              B uilding & Gro unds Cleaning &
jobs.                                                                                                                                                    M aint.
                                           C o nst r uct i o n and                                                                 Heal t hcar e Pr act i t i o ner s
                                                                                                                                                            Co nstructio n and Extractio n
                                                Ext r act i o n                                                                           and T echni cal
“Food preparation and                                                                                                                                    Installatio n, M aintenance, &
serving” accounts for 10% of                                                                                                                             Repair

new jobs, 2nd only to office and                                                                                                                         Fo o d P reparatio n and Serving
                                                                                                                                                         Related
                                                                                                                    H e a lt hc a re S uppo rt
administrative support. Job             B ui l d i ng & G r o und s                                                                                      Sales and Related
growth in “sales and related             C l eani ng & M ai nt .
                                                                                                    P e rs o na l C a re a nd
areas” has 10% of new jobs as                                         E duc a t io n, T ra ining,
                                                                                                            S e rv ic e
                                                                                                                                                         P ro ductio n (manufacturing)
                                                                           a nd Libra ry
well. Job growth in “healthcare                                                                                                                          Transpo rtatio n & M aterial
practitioners” and “healthcare                                                                                                                           M o ving

support” together account for                                                                                                                            Farming, Fishing, and Fo restry

14% of new jobs.
         Lessons to Learn from Emerging Economic Patterns
Look Forward Promising strategies for economic improvement must reflect where the economy is going,
not where it has been.

Customize Strategies Needs, opportunities and even attitudes vary widely from place to place in Montana.
Goals and strategies for economic advancement must likewise vary.

Cities Matter Cities, even small ones, have become the “settings” if not the “engines” of economic
growth, diversification, and advancement. In Montana, we need to assist cities, not deny that we have any.

Urban-Rural Relations Matter Pursuing economic development town-by-town or county-by-county is
difficult. Influencing local economies sub-region by sub-region with healthy urban-rural partnerships has
potential.

Become “Learning Communities” Successful businesses are adaptive businesses. Successful
communities are adaptive communities. Adaptive communities must be “learning communities,” keeping
abreast of change and understanding the story of local and regional change. Learning among key
leadership is particularly important.

Think about “Regional Positioning” Local economies can’t be remade by local leaders. But local leaders
can find ways of better positioning area businesses, schools, work forces, governments, families, etc. for
future change. Anticipate future change and position yourself for it.

Human-Resource Based Economy The economy is more and more “human resource based” and
“knowledge-based”. Well-designed, well-funded, adaptive systems for education and work force
development are indispensible centerpieces for future economic prosperity.

Environment as a “Key Economic Asset” In the new economy, protecting and enhancing environmental
qualities is not the enemy of economic development. It is essential for economic prosperity.

                      - Larry Swanson, O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West, U. of MT
Challenges for Workforce Development & Adult Education Programs
In an increasingly “human-resource based” economy, workforce development and education have
become centerpieces of any strategy for community economic improvement. They are essential for
economic prosperity.

Regionally-based and Customized: Workforce development programs must be grounded in the
regions and communities served .. tailored to particular needs and opportunities of area employers.

Inter-coordinated: Workforce development and training and education more generally, must be inter-
coordinated with business technical and financial assistance, marketing and promotion, infrastructure
development, and other aspects of community economic development.

Well-designed and Adaptive: The economy is continually restructuring and changing. To be
successful workforce development programming must reflect where the economy is going, not where it
has been. Be “forward-looking” and “opportunistic”.

Life-long: The pace of economic change combined with the aging of the workforce require that
workforce development itself be life-long. Develop programming for workers of all ages and for workers
who are continually learning and upgrading their skills, incrementally and progressively.

Workplace-oriented: Workforce development is something workers need while they work. It is not
simply something workers do between jobs or early in life. Make it easy and flexible. Place programming
in or nearby the workplace. Employers must accommodate if not encourage this on-going training.

Well-funded: To be successful, workforce development programming must be well-funded. For an area to be
competitive, such programming cannot be done “on the cheap.”

                      - Larry Swanson, O’Connor Center for the Rocky Mountain West, U. of MT

				
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