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Climate Change Impacts in Different Agro-ecological Zones of West

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					              Climate Change Impacts in Different
              Agro-ecological Zones of West Africa
                        – Humid Zone
          Paper presented at the International Workshop on Adaptation to Climate
             Change in West African Agriculture at Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
                                  from 27 – 30 April 2009




                    Dr. Anthony C. Anuforom
                       Permanent Representative of Nigeria with WMO



     Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET)
     33 Pope Paul II Street
     Maitama District,
     ABUJA
Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) …… providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable
                                                  development and safety of life and property
                         Outline of Presentation
 •           Introduction – Contemporary Issues on                                              Climate
             Change in Africa
 •           Humid Zone of West Africa
 •           Evidence of Effects of Climate Change in the Humid
             Zone of West Africa.
 •           Challenges to Adaptation to Climate Change in the
             region.
 •           Concluding Remarks


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                                                  development and safety of life and property
             Introduction – Contemporary Issues on
                    Climate Change in Africa
      High climate variability and drought in West Africa in the 1970s and
      1980s had adverse effect on agriculture, particularly in the Sahel.
      And, according to IPCC 4th Assessment Report, by 2020….

      (i)Between 75 and 250 million people may be exposed to increased water
      stress due to climate change and this will adversely affect livelihoods in the
      region.

      (ii)The area suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons
      and yield potential, are expected to decrease due to Climate Change.

      (iii) Yields from rain-fed agriculture in some countries could be
      reduced by up to 50%!

      (iv) Africa remains one of the most vulnerable continents to climate
      variability and change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive
      capacity.
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             Introduction – Contemporary Issues on
                Climate Change in Africa (contd.)
   For the West African sub-region...
   (i)Agriculture is critical to the economy. While the world average
   contribution of the agriculture sector to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
   is only 4.5 %, the sector’s contribution is about 30 % in West Africa.
   (ii) In addition to the above, over 65 % of the population in the region is
   rural, and about 90 % of the rural population directly depends on rain-fed
   agriculture for income and food security. Therefore reduction in rainfall
   as predicted by various Climate Models translates to threat to
   livelihood of the population and the economy of the sub-region.
   (iii)The 2005 FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment showed that forest
   and woodland in Sub Saharan Africa presently cover about 530 million ha,
   compared to 710 million ha in 1975. This ongoing degradation of natural
   resources is reducing the resilience of the agro-ecosystems to drought,
   further undermining the region’s future capacity to cope with climate
   change.
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                                        Introduction




  Time series (1941-2001) of average normalized April-October rainfall departure for 20 stations in the West

  African Soudano-Sahel zone (11-18N and West of 10E); following methodology of Lamb and Peppler,1992).


Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) …… providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable
                                                  development and safety of life and property
                                        Introduction




Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) …… providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable
                                                  development and safety of life and property
                                        Introduction




Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) …… providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable
                                                  development and safety of life and property
                                        Introduction




Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) …… providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable
                                                  development and safety of life and property
                     Humid Zone of West Africa
   Definition
   •           The zone that supports forests as the typical vegetation
               cover
   •           Zone where annual precipitation exceeds evaporation.
               However, this definition encompasses all areas that are not
               desert or semi-arid


   • Other approaches to delineating the zones include those of
   Thornthwaite, 1931, 1948; Griffiths and Driscoft, 1982, Oliver and
   Hidore, 2002 as part of general climatic classifications.
   Thornthwaite used moisture index to define humid climate as
   having positive index values


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                                                  development and safety of life and property
            Humid Zone of West Africa (contd.)
    Some Characteristics of the Zone
    •           Consists of forests and forest-savannah transition area.
    •           Covers about 10% of the West African region, including
                Liberia and parts of Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana,
                Guinea, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Togo.
    •           Receives more than 1,500 millimeters of rainfall
                annually and has a growing period of 7 to 12 months.
    •           The soils are very acidic and easily degraded without
                vegetation cover.
    •           The long rainy season in the zone is favorable to roots
                crops which contribute significantly the GDP.
    •           The zone is less favorable for pastoral agriculture.

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) …… providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable
                                                  development and safety of life and property
                     Humid Zone of West Africa




Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) …… providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable
                                                  development and safety of life and property
                     Humid Zone of West Africa




Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) …… providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable
                                                  development and safety of life and property
Is Climate Change Evident in the Humid
          Zone of West Africa?
                       Late onsets of rains in a few                                                                                                                             Late Onset now spreading to
                       places                                                                                                                                                     many parts of the country
                       14
                                                                                                                                                                            14
                                                  SOK                       KAT                                NGU                                                                                     SOK                       KAT                                NGU
                                      BRK
                                                                                                                                                                                           BRK
                                                                GUS
                                                                                       KAN                                                                                                                           GUS
                       12                                                                         DUT                        DAM         MAI                                                                                                KAN
                                                                                                                     POT                                                                                                                                                                      MAI
                                                                                                                                                                            12                                                                         DUT                POT     DAM

                                                                            ZAR
                                            YEL                                                                                                                                                                                  ZAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                 YEL
                                                                          KAD
                                                   KON                                                  BAU          GOM                                                                                                       KAD
                                                                                                                                                                                                        KON
Latitude (degrees N)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             BAU          GOM




                                                                                                                                                     Latitude (degrees N)
                       10                                                                   JOS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 JOS
                                                                MIN                                                                                                         10                                       MIN
                                            JEB           BID                                                                      YOL
                                                                          ABU                                                                                                                    JEB          BID                                                                       YOL
                                                                                                                       JLG                                                                                                     ABU
                              SHK                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           JLG
                                          ILO                                           LAF                                                                                        SHK
                                                                                                                                                                                               ILO                                          LAF
                                                                                                        IBI
                                ISY                                                                                                                                                                                                                          IBI
                       8                  OSB                       LOK                                                                                                              ISY
                                                                                       MKD                                                                                   8                 OSB                       LOK                MKD
                                    IBA
                                              AKU                                 OTU                                                                                                    IBA
                              ABE           OND                                                                                                                                                    AKU                                 OTU
                                                                                                                                                                                   ABE           OND
                                    IJB                                                                                                                                                  IJB
                              IKE                                                           OGJ                                                                                                                                                  OGJ
                                                                          ENU                                                                                                      IKE
                                                    BEN                           ABK                                                                                                                    BEN                   ENU
                                                                    ONT                                                                                                                                                                ABK
                                                                                         IKM                                                                                                                             ONT
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             IKM
                       6                                                                                                                                                     6
                                                        WAR          OWEUMU                                                                                                                                  WAR          OWEUMU

                                                              YEN                     CAL                                                                                                                                                  CAL
                                                                      PHC                                                                                                                                          YEN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           PHC



                       4                                                                                                                                                     4


                        2             4                   6                       8                       10                 12                14                            2             4                   6                       8                       10                 12                14
                                                                          Longitude (degrees E)                                                                                                                                Longitude (degrees E)




                            Deviation of 1941 – ’70 Mean                                                                                            Deviation of 1971 – 2000 Mean
                            onset date of rainy season from                                                                                         onset date of rainy season from the
                            the 1911 – ’40 onset dates                                                                                              1911 – ’40 onset dates
                            Early cessation of rains in                                                                                                                   Early cessation of the rains
                            and around Ondo/Ilorin                                                                                                                        now affect many parts of the
                                                                                                                                                                          country
                       14                                                                                                                                                 14

                                                  SOK                                                                                                                                              SOK                       KAT
                                                                            KAT                                NGU                                                                                                                                              NGU

                                      BRK                                                                                                                                              BRK
                                                                GUS                                                                                                                                              GUS
                                                                                       KAN                                                                                                                                              KAN
                       12                                                                         DUT                POT    DAM         MAI                               12                                                                       DUT                POT     DAM         MAI


                                                                            ZAR                                                                                                                                              ZAR
                                            YEL                                                                                                                                              YEL
                                                                          KAD                                                                                                                                              KAD
                                                   KON                                                                                                                                              KON                                                  BAU          GOM
                                                                                                        BAU




                                                                                                                                                   Latitude (degrees N)
                                                                                                                     GOM
Latitude (degrees N)




                                                                                            JOS                                                                           10                                                                 JOS
                       10                                                                                                                                                                                        MIN
                                                                MIN
                                                                                                                                  YOL                                                        JEB                                                                                    YOL
                                            JEB          BID                                                                                                                                               BID             ABU
                                                                          ABU                                                                                                                                                                                           JLG
                                                                                                                      JLG
                              SHK                                                                                                                                              SHK
                                          ILO                                          LAF                                                                                                 ILO                                           LAF
                                                                                                        IBI                                                                                                                                              IBI
                                ISY                                                                                                                                              ISY
                       8                  OSB                       LOK                MKD
                                                                                                                                                                          8                OSB                       LOK                MKD
                                    IBA                                                                                                                                              IBA
                                              AKU                                 OTU                                                                                          ABE             AKU                                 OTU
                              ABE           OND                                                                                                                                              OND
                                    IJB                                                                                                                                              IJB
                                                                                            OGJ                                                                                IKE                                                           OGJ
                              IKE                                                                                                                                                                                          ENU
                                                    BEN                   ENU                                                                                                                        BEN                           ABK
                                                                                  ABK
                                                                    ONT                                                                                                                                              ONT
                                                                                        IKM                                                                                                                                               IKM
                       6                                                                                                                                                  6
                                                        WAR             UMU                                                                                                                              WAR          OWEUMU
                                                                     OWE

                                                              YEN                     CAL                                                                                                                      YEN                     CAL
                                                                      PHC                                                                                                                                              PHC



                       4                                                                                                                                                  4


                        2             4                   6                       8                       10                12                14                           2           4                   6                       8                       10                 12                14
                                                                          Longitude (degrees E)                                                                                                                            Longitude (degrees E)




                            Deviation of 1941 – ‘70 Mean
                                                                                                                                                                          Deviation of 1971-2000 cessation
                            cessation date of rainy season
                                                                                                                                                                          dates from 1911-’40
                            from the 1911 – ’40 cessation
                            dates
         RAINFALL DEPARTURE ANOMALIES FROM 1991 - 2006 OVER
14       THE WMO REFERENCE PERIOD 1961 - 1990 IN NIGERIA
                              SO                          KT                             NG

                                               GU                   KN
                                                                                                PT                MA
12

                         YE                                ZA
                                                         KA
                                                                                BA
                                         BI                              JO
10                                            MI
                                                   AB                                                        YL
                                                                                                 JA
                         IL                                         LA          EB
              SH
               IS                                                          MK
 8                       OS                    LO
                    IB
             AO           ON AK
                    IJ                                               OG
            ISIK                                EN
          BD                        BE         AS
                                               OT
                                                                     IK
 6                                  WR             OW
                                                     AB UY CB
                                                    PH
                                                        EK
                                                                           SLIGHT DEFECITS OVER AREAS
 4
                                                                           SHADED RED AND SURPLUS
                                                                           OVER GREEN AREAS
     2               4                   6                      8                   10                12               14
                                                                                                      -1.5
                                                                                         -0.5
                              2.5




                                                   1.5




                                                                     0.5




                                                                                                                  -2
                                                                                                 -1
                                         2




                                                           1




                                                                                0
Climate Change Effects in the Humid Zone
 Late onset of the rainy season spreading to more areas in the
    humid zone.
   Early cessation of the rains
   Shorter rainy season
   Shorter cropping season
   Water shortages, Drought conditions
   Desertification conditions spreading, etc


Resulting to ...
 Changes/shifts in boundaries between agro-ecological
  zones and
 Progressive depletion of forest resources of West Africa
 Threat to food production and security.
 Distortion of crop calendar.
 Changes in distribution of animal diseases and parasites.
 Changes in bio-diversity
        Climate Change Impacts in the Humid Zone

      Livestock                    Changes in forage resources; shifts in forests vegetation
                                   structure or boundaries; changes in forage quality and
      impacts                      quantity; reduction in harvest forage; changes in length of
                                   growing season; reduced feed intake and changes in
                                   livestock productivity such as milk production, growth rates
                                   and weight gain, reproduction; and changes in water quality
                                   and quantity, shift in types of herbivores;

      Ecological                   Alteration in carbon storage capacity of the ecosystem;
                                   alterations in greenhouse gas emissions; disturbances in
      impacts                      ecosystem functions (e. g. alteration in biogeochemical
                                   cycling, incidence of wild fires etc.); changes in soil quality
                                   and productivity; changes in biodiversity and changes in
                                   habitat suitability for wildfire

      Socio-                       Changes in food production and security (locally and
                                   nationally; changes to incomes derived from livestock
      economic                     production, wildlife, and other forest outputs; changes in
                                   land use; changes in recreational use of forests and
      impacts                      alteration in scenic quality
Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) …… providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable
                                                  development and safety of life and property
             Challenges to Adaptation to Climate Change in
                      Humid Zone of West Africa
 •    Although empirical data (particularly rainfall) indicate shifts in rainfall
      characteristics in parts of West African Humid Zone, the subject is not yet fully
      understood.

 •    NHMSs in the sub-region have key roles to play in providing meteorological
      information for decision-making and for planning adaptation and mitigation
      strategies. Unfortunately however, some of these NHMSs are relatively weak in
      terms of observational infrastructure and manpower.

 •    There is therefore need for capacity building in climate change observation and
      analyses with a view to identifying climate risks and generating knowledge and
      managing climate change risks in agriculture, health, water resources, forestry,
      etc.

 •    Meteorological services and products, such as seasonal rainfall predictions and
      other early warning information, are largely not understood by rural farmers
      who form the bulk of the workforce in agriculture.

 •    Although over time, local farmers have evolved indigenous adaptation and
      mitigation strategies, it is necessary to blend and re-enforce these with
      scientific knowledge.

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) …… providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable
                                                  development and safety of life and property
                                               Conclusion

  •    The droughts that occurred in West Africa in the 1970s and 1980s had adverse
       impact on agriculture and hence the economies of countries in the sub-region
       Africa, particularly the Sahel.

  •    IPCC 4th Assessment Report indicates that the area suitable for agriculture, the length
       of growing seasons and yield potential in Africa, are expected to decrease due to Climate
       Change. Africa remains one of the most vulnerable continents to climate variability and
       change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity.

  •    Up to 10% of West Africa falls within the humid zone. The zone is characterized by high rainfall and forest
       cover is the typical vegetation.

  •     Empirical evidence indicates significant change in the rainfall pattern in the humid zone. However, there
       is inadequate understanding of how climate change will affect West Africa in the
       coming decades. More research is therefore required to understand how West
       African agro-ecosystems will respond to climate change; how livelihoods will be
       affected, with a view to evolving the necessary adaptation and mitigation
       strategies.

  •    Capacity-building is required to enable NHMSs in the West African sub-region play
       the expected role of providing meteorological products and services for climate
       change adaptation and mitigation.

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) …… providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable
                                                  development and safety of life and property
                                Thank You
                               for Listening

Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) …… providing weather, climate and water information for sustainable
                                                  development and safety of life and property

				
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