Vulnerability
Assessment, Climate
6 Change Impacts, and
Adaptation Measures
he United States is involved in a wide array of climate assessments, research, and
T other activities at the local, regional, national, and international levels to increase
understanding of impacts and vulnerability needed to initiate effective adaptation
measures. These activities range from assessments of adaptation options for a specific sec-
toral impact in one locale to the modeling of potential impacts worldwide. They inform
decision-making processes at all levels and help to increase societal resilience to climate
changes. Many of the most successful U.S. programs are demand-driven—they generate
research or spur activities in response to the needs and priorities identified by decision
makers to address current and near-term risks and opportunities.
The 2002 U.S. Climate Action Report (2002 CAR) highlighted findings from the Na-
tional Assessment of climate change impacts on the United States (NAST 2000), and those
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001a, b). The United States
continues to use a range of peer-reviewed scientific outputs to inform decision making
with regard to climate impacts, spanning domestic scientific articles and assessments to
international assessments, such as those of the IPCC.
Since the release of the 2002 CAR, and as described in the Strategic Plan of the U.S. Cli-
mate Change Science Program (CCSP and SGCR 2003a), the U.S. government has under-
taken an ambitious suite of focused assessments addressing high-priority research
questions. This open, transparent approach communicates scientific analyses to the public
via a set of 21 synthesis and assessment products developed by the U.S. Climate Change
Science Program (CCSP). These products consider, evaluate, and summarize the current
state of understanding in critical areas related to climate change, its ongoing and potential
impacts, and options for responding to these changes. This material is intended for use by
a diverse group of decision makers, stakeholders, communicators (e.g., the media), and
scientists. The material addresses the Nation’s need for sound scientific information that
can lead to a better understanding of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities, as well
improved design and implementation of adaptation measures. As with previous CCSP
outputs, the synthesis and assessment products are reviewed by government and non-
government scientists, U.S. government officials, stakeholders, and the general public.
These products build on and integrate cutting-edge research and application activities,
advanced over the years by the interagency research efforts in climate and global change.1
The synthesis and assessment products highlighted in this chapter will provide analyses
of ongoing and potential impacts of climate variability and change, adaptability of key
systems, and measures that may be taken to reduce vulnerability. Although many of these
products are currently under development, the United States also has participated in a
number of international climate change assessments that include consideration of
1 More information about CCSP and the synthesis and assessment products may be found in Chapter 8 and at
.
68
68 U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT—2006
U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT—2006
Decision makers and planners in such
BOX 6-1 U.S. Participation in International Impact Assessments
climate-dependent sectors as agriculture
Since the 2002 CAR, the United States has participated in two significant international and water generally consider historical
assessments that address projected impacts of climate change on the United States— patterns of climate variability and extreme
although within the larger context of the North American and Arctic regions. In the Arctic events, particularly those that have oc-
Climate Impact Assessment (AC and IASC 2004), the authors found that:
• Arctic climate is now warming rapidly, and much larger changes are projected.
curred relatively recently. These include
• Arctic warming and its consequences have worldwide implications.
considerations of variations at short time
• Arctic vegetation zones are very likely to shift, causing wide-ranging impacts.
scales (e.g., seasonal and annual varia-
• Animal species' diversity, ranges, and distribution will change.
tions). Relatively few decision makers,
however, consider variations in climate
• Many coastal communities and facilities face increasing exposure to storms.
that occur on longer time scales (e.g.,
• Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport and access to resources.
decades to a century). Moreover, decision
• Thawing ground will disrupt transportation, buildings, and other infrastructure.
makers do not typically consider how po-
• Indigenous communities are facing major economic and cultural impacts.
tential climate change could cause patterns
• Elevated ultraviolet radiation levels will affect people, plants, and animals.
of climate variability to differ from histor-
• Multiple influences interact to cause impacts to people and ecosystems.
ical trends. Although scenario-based as-
Current information on impacts on polar regions and on the North American region can also
be found in the Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate sessments regarding the future do not
Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and always agree on the type or direction of
Vulnerability. The United States is an active participant in the creation of this report, which will change that might occur, and these dis-
be completed in November 2007. The most recent findings of the IPCC are available at agreements often increase at smaller geo-
.
graphical scales, global and regional
climate models provide a range of projec-
projected impacts and adaptation of rele- Many of these activities are leading to tions that can be helpful in communicat-
vance to the Nation (see Box 6-1).In addi- demonstrable reductions in socioeco- ing climate risks to regional decision
tion, this chapter focuses on activities the nomic and environmental vulnerability to makers.
United States is undertaking to assess and climate variability and change. A key component in building resilience
respond to specific types of impacts and into human and natural systems is to ex-
vulnerability, in accordance with Article 12
DEVELOPING RESILIENT SOCIETIES pand scientific understanding of the na-
AND ECONOMIES ture and implications of climate variability
of the U.N. Framework Convention on
The ultimate goal of adaptation is to and change across sectors, often within a
Climate Change. It also highlights ongoing
develop resilient societies and economies place-specific framework that considers
U.S. efforts that are generating new in-
that have the knowledge and capacity to the socioeconomic and institutional ca-
sights into the potential impacts of climate
address both the challenges and the op- pacities and decision-making practices.
change on key physical and biological
portunities presented by changing climatic Lessons from early research investments
processes (e.g., snowpack changes, stream-
conditions. Climate change will alter pat- intended to increase understanding of the
flow, drought, extreme events, biodiver-
terns of climate variability in unknown human and natural sources of vulnerabil-
sity) and changing resilience and
ways. Resilience is a matter of reducing ity to climate variability and change have
vulnerability in a range of socioeconomic
present vulnerability as well as minimizing profoundly influenced the approach of the
sectors (e.g., energy, forestry, agriculture,
the risk of future vulnerability to climate current U.S. research program. As called
coastal systems, human health, and trans-
events. Efforts to help sensitive popula- for in the CCSP strategic plan, research
portation). It provides an overview of the
tions adapt to current climate variability partnerships have been initiated and sus-
current U.S. government approach toward
have shown that socioeconomic, environ- tained in some regions to involve decision
characterizing and reducing uncertainty
mental, and climatic stresses are all con- makers in the process of identifying
associated with specific climate-related is-
nected. Future changes in these conditions knowledge gaps of the highest relevance to
sues and providing practical scientific in-
could substantially alter the environment their decision processes (CCSP and SGCR
formation and tools to decision makers via
in which adaptation must take place. The 2003a). These partnerships have also ex-
CCSP and other mechanisms. Often these
full range of likely future stresses must be plored mechanisms for improving the util-
activities take place within broader activi-
considered. To be sustainable, adaptation ity and flow of knowledge from the
ties to improve sectoral risk management
efforts must consider options that build research community to those who can use
within the context of many changing so-
resilience to these stresses (Goklany 1995, and benefit from it.
cial, economic, and environmental factors.
2007).
CHAPTER 6 —VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, AND ADAPTATION MEASURES 69
Box 6-2 presents a cross-section of the
BOX 6-2 Sample U.S. Climate Vulnerability and Change Research
types of programs being carried out by the Programs and Activities
United States at the international, federal,
state, and local levels to assess impacts of The U.S. government supports several programs and activities that are working to assess the
impacts of climate change and reduce vulnerability across sectors. Following is a sample
climate change and reduce vulnerability. cross-section of the types of programs being carried out at all levels to build resilience into
This list is not comprehensive; rather it is human and natural systems.
a small sample of the relevant activities International Programs and Activities
being carried out on a variety of scales in
NASA and USAID Regional Hubs
the United States. A continuing goal is a The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Agency for
coherent program that allows synergies International Development (USAID) are developing regional hubs around the world to apply
among these many and varied programs. remotely sensed information to development assistance. Based on the successful SERVIR
hub in Central America, this activity will link available data streams to new applications,
SECTOR-SPECIFIC U.S. develop tools, and build local human and institutional capacity to use this information. These
ADAPTATION ACTIVITIES systems will support decision making in a number of areas, including climate change, land
management, urban planning, food security, agriculture, and disaster mitigation.
The sector- and region-specific projects
in this section illustrate the variety and USAID Climate Change Program
Often in partnership with other agencies, USAID leads a number of activities to help build
scale of adaptation methods utilized developing country capacity to understand climate change and adapt to its impacts. Its
within the United States. They represent Climate Change Program conducts projects to test methodologies to insert climate information
only a small sample of key areas of inves- in mainstream development project planning. The projects emphasize stakeholder
tigation the United States has undertaken participation. For example, USAID:
in its extensive portfolio of past and cur- • worked with farmers in Mali, planting crop varieties that are better suited to a hotter
climate;
rent adaptation activities.
• helped local stakeholders in South Africa identify water demand management and
Water Resources infrastructure requirements as climate changes;
Changes in atmospheric, surface, and • addressed flooding concerns with coastal residents, businesses, and planning officials in
subsurface water storage and flow have Honduras; and
been observed over the past several • helped fishermen and farmers in Thailand determine how to build resilience to warming
temperatures and more variable rains.
decades in the United States (Groisman et
al. 2004). Whether due to anthropogenic Lessons learned from these projects informed the development of an adaptation guidance
manual, which is being applied in additional projects in cooperation with USAID missions
or natural causes, these changes have sig- around the world. The manual will be disseminated to USAID missions and other development
nificant implications for the provision of partners to ensure the methods and tools are used broadly.
adequate water supply for human con-
Local to National Programs and Activities
sumption, agriculture, energy production,
NASA Applied Sciences Program
industrial uses, and other needs. While
This program benchmarks practical uses of NASA-sponsored observations from Earth
population growth, pollution, and indus- observation systems and predictions from Earth science models. NASA implements projects
trial development add stresses to the water that carry forth this mission through partnerships with public, private, and academic
supply (U.S. DOI 2003), climate variations organizations developing innovative approaches for using Earth system science information
to provide decision support that can be adapted in applications worldwide. The program
and change may significantly exacerbate focuses on applications of national priority to expand and accelerate the use of knowledge,
water supply issues. science, and technologies resulting from the NASA goal of improving predictions in the areas
For example, despite increases in winter of weather, climate, and natural hazards.2
precipitation, in many places a large per- EPA Global Change Research Program
centage of the traditionally snow-covered The primary emphasis of this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) assessment-oriented
areas of the northwestern United States program is understanding the potential consequences of climate variability and change on
human health, ecosystems, and socioeconomic systems in the United States. This work entails
has experienced a decline in spring snow- (1) improving the scientific basis for evaluating the effects of global change in the context of
pack, especially since the middle of the other stressors and human dimensions (as humans are catalysts of and respond to global
20th century (Mote et al. 2005). The change), (2) conducting assessments of the risks and opportunities presented by global change,
largest decreases have occurred at lower and (3) assessing adaptation options to improve society’s ability to effectively respond to those
risks and opportunities as they emerge. EPA’s intramural assessment program has four areas
elevations where snowpack is most sensi- of emphasis: (1) human health, (2) air quality, (3) water quality, and (4) ecosystem health. In an
tive to temperature and in regions where attempt to capitalize on expertise in the academic community, a significant portion of the
program’s resources are dedicated to extramural research grants administered through EPA’s
STAR (Science to Achieve Results) grants program, which supports science related to
2 See .
3 See .
70
70 U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT—2006
U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT—2006
cific Northwest and New England, in
BOX 6-2 (Continued) Sample U.S. Climate Vulnerability and Change
Research Programs and Activities basins dominated by snowmelt, has typi-
cally advanced by 1–2 weeks (Groisman et
NSF Decision Making Under Uncertainty Centers al. 2004; Hodgkins et al. 2003), thereby
These National Science Foundation (NSF) centers are comprised of five interdisciplinary
research teams studying important aspects of problems associated with understanding providing less river runoff during the late
climate-related decisions under uncertainty. The increased knowledge generated by recent spring and summer.
scientific research on the causes and consequences of climate change and variability has led Another example of potential changes
to a growing need to better understand how decision makers choose among alternative is the severe and extreme drought that is a
courses of action. These teams are expected to produce new insights of interest to the
academic community, generate significant educational benefits, and develop new tools that recurring feature across much of the
will benefit decision makers and a range of stakeholders. Research centers are located at United States. Research suggests that a
Arizona State, Carnegie-Mellon, and Columbia universities. Other interdisciplinary teams are broad array of physical mechanisms con-
conducting research at the University of Colorado at Boulder and Rand Corporation in Santa
tributes to droughts, from internal atmos-
Monica, California.
pheric variability on the shortest time
National Water and Climate Center
scales, to interactions with oceans and
Administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service,
the National Water and Climate Center (NWCC) focuses on providing leadership in a land surface at seasonal-to-decadal and
partnership effort to help people conserve, improve, and sustain their natural resources and longer time scales. Among recent scientific
environment. NWCC’s mission is to lead the development and transfer of water and climate studies is one suggesting that drought con-
information and technology that support natural resource conservation through natural
resource planning support, data acquisition and management, technology innovation and
ditions in the 1998–2002 time frame over
transfer, and partnerships and joint ventures.4 North America, parts of southern Europe,
Regional Program
and southwest Asia were linked to partic-
ular ocean conditions (Hoerling and
Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program
Kumar 2003). Cold sea-surface tempera-
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) RISA program supports
research that addresses complex climate-sensitive regional issues of concern to decision tures in the eastern tropical Pacific and un-
makers and policy planners. RISA research team members are primarily based at universities, precedented warm sea-surface conditions
though some are based at government research facilities, nonprofit organizations, and private- in the western tropical Pacific and Indian
sector entities. Research areas include the fisheries, water, wildfire, and agriculture sectors,
coastal restoration, and climate-sensitive public health issues.5 Oceans worked synergistically to cause
widespread drying in the mid-latitudes.
State Program
This synergy suggests an increased risk for
California Climate Change Center severe and synchronized drying of North-
The center investigates the range of possible changes to California’s climate and the likelihood
and rate of progression of such changes. Using the results of this work, the center is assessing
ern Hemisphere mid-latitudes if similar
the potential future economic and ecological consequences of climate change for California, oceanic conditions occur in the future.
and is examining a range of impacts and adaptation options concerning, e.g., agriculture and The warmer temperatures projected with
water resources, as well as mitigation strategies. The center manages a robust research rising concentrations of greenhouse gases
program with a dynamic community of California researchers from various scientific
disciplines and a worldwide network of peers collaborating on climate change issues of are expected to exacerbate present risks of
interest to California.6 drought in the United States by increasing
Local Program the rate of evaporation (Gleick 2000).
However, the effects of drought and low soil
King County Global Warming Initiative
Washington State’s King County is pursuing aggressive strategies to reduce and adapt to
moisture on vegetation, including crops,
global warming in each of the following areas: land use, public transportation, innovative may be offset by higher CO2 levels—or at
environmental management, and development of clean energy technologies. The county is least partly offset for a period of time (e.g.,
one of several jurisdictions that are accounting for climate change in their short- and long- Triggs et al. 2004; Nelson et al. 2004).
term infrastructural planning. Specific actions being taken by King County that account
explicitly for climate change include developing a flood plan and proposed major upgrades in Regional Integrated Sciences and
its 119 miles of levees on local rivers, as well as constructing a $28 million reclaimed water Assessments
system to help address expected water shortages.7
Federally funded researchers are work-
ing with water and ecosystem managers as
winter temperatures are mild, especially in in spring snow cover over the region dur-
the Cascade Mountains and northern Cal- ing the last half century (Groisman et al. 4 See .
ifornia. Substantial declines in snow-water 2004), and about a one-week advance 5 See .
6 See .
evations of the Pacific Northwest (Mote snowmelt in northern Alaska (Stone et al. 7 See .
2003), along with a significant reduction 2002). The peak of streamflow in the Pa-
CHAPTER 6 —VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, AND ADAPTATION MEASURES 71
new insights and techniques become avail- decision makers, such as those responsible track, assess, and respond to drought
able, allowing incorporation of scientific for managing Denver’s water supply. threats at regional and local levels.12
data and information into near- and long- Climate Assessment for the South- New York City Task Force on
term planning. NOAA’s Climate Program west—A RISA based at the University of Climate Change
Office funds eight programs designed to Arizona, titled the Climate Assessment for As in the U.S. West, water issues are of
provide the Nation with experience-based the Southwest,11 is developing and using concern in the eastern half of the country
knowledge about how to provide climate new information on drought to increase as well. The New York City Department of
services (see Box 6-1).8 Called Regional In- societal resilience to this recurrent phe- Environmental Protection, which provides
tegrated Sciences and Assessments nomenon. The impacts of U.S. drought water for 9 million people in the New York
(RISAs), these programs are an important during the last 5–7 years have included metropolitan region, has created a Task
element of CCSP’s efforts to support deci- sustained and extensive economic losses, Force on Climate Change that is compre-
sion making on climate-related issues. Fol- significantly reduced reservoir levels, water hensively addressing climate variability
lowing are some sample RISA programs. emergencies, and widespread and severe and change (Rosenzweig et al. 2007). The
Climate Impacts Group—The Univer- wildfires. task force has developed a robust, dy-
sity of Washington’s Climate Impacts Creating a more drought-resilient soci- namic, scenario framework for the region;
Group (CIG) is using emerging know- ety requires a fundamental shift from crisis built a set of adaptation assessment steps
ledge to help inform decision making management to risk management. Inves- that characterizes potential adaptations as
related to changing hydroclimatic condi- tigators studying the impacts of drought operations/management, infrastructure,
tions in the Pacific Northwest. CIG is are researching the historical record, evolv- or policy; and identified key vulnerabili-
utilizing its hydrologic modeling and pre- ing demographics and population growth, ties, such as sea level rise for sewer and
diction capabilities to evaluate water re- water law, and ecosystem management. wastewater treatment systems and the
source issues, including the consequences For example, they are working to develop need for integrated modeling of upstate
of alternative water and hydroelectric methods to utilize seasonal climate and regions of water supply and reservoirs.
power management strategies for salmon streamflow forecasts more effectively to
restoration efforts, and the consequences mitigate the impact of drought on water Ecosystems
of changing water demands and changes supplies. This type of knowledge is ex- Climate is an important factor influ-
in land cover for regional water resources.9 pected to become even more valuable in encing the distribution, structure, func-
Western Water Assessment—The Wes- the coming decades, if climate model pro- tion, and services of ecosystems. Ongoing
tern Water Assessment (WWA) is examin- jections of increasing aridity in continental climate changes are interacting with other
ing the interplay between changing interiors prove accurate. environmental changes to affect biodiver-
hydrologic and climatic conditions, and sity and the future condition of ecosystems
National Integrated Drought (e.g., IPCC 2001b; McCarty 2001;
the complex array of intrastate, interstate, Information System
and international water agreements in the Parmesan and Yohe 2003). Significant cli-
The sustained drought in parts of the mate change would affect many U.S.
Colorado River Basin. Recent analyses in- U.S. West has exposed critical vulnerabili-
dicate that current “assumptions about ecosystems, including wetlands, forests,
ties and has revealed the effects of multiple grasslands, rivers, and lakes (NRC 2001).
planning in the Colorado basin [are not] stresses on institutions designed under dif-
borne out by the climate record [of natural The extent to which ecosystem conditions
ferent climatological circumstances. This will be affected will depend on the magni-
variability] and by projections of change” experience has prompted advances in pre-
(Pulwarty et al. 2005). Working with water tude of climate change, the degree of sensi-
paredness and a national-scale response tivity of the ecosystem and nonclimate
managers, WWA researchers have ana- through the development of a National In-
lyzed how interannual-to-multidecadal pressures on biodiversity to that change, the
tegrated Drought Information System availability of adaptation options for effec-
climate variability affects critical water is- (NIDIS) (WGA 2004). NIDIS is de-
sues and what climate information can be tive ecosystem management, and the will-
signed as a user-based drought informa- ingness to deploy those options.
used in the resource management decision tion system that assesses potential drought
process to meet multiple and expanding indicators and impacts to provide tools
water uses in the basin.10 Using multidisci- for anticipating, preparing for, and miti-
plinary teams of experts in climate, water, gating the effects of drought. U.S. govern- 8 See .
law, and economics, WWA provides infor- ment services and research aim to provide 9 See .
10 See .
forecasts and regional vulnerability assess- public and private sectors to anticipate, 11 See .
ments) designed to assist water-resource 12 For example, see .
72
72 U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT—2006
U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT—2006
Adaptation Strategies and Options tion or resources may impede successful volves the agricultural sector. Building on
CCSP addresses management strategies implementation. In some cases, managers assessments of the impacts of El Niño on
for facilitating ecosystem adaptation to cli- may not have the knowledge or informa- particular crops, and interactions with
mate variability and change. The goal of tion they need to address climate change farmers and extension agents, U.S. research
these adaptation strategies is to reduce the impacts. In other instances, managers may scientists are contributing information and
risk of adverse outcomes through activities understand the issues and have the relevant climate predictions tailored to the specific
that increase the resilience of ecological sys- information but lack resources to imple- needs of farmers, enabling them to plan in
tems to climate change, and to take advan- ment adaptation options. Furthermore, advance seasons, or longer, to increase pro-
tage of positive outcomes (Turner et al. even with improvement in the knowledge ductivity and decrease exposure.14 Methods
2003; Tompkins and Adger 2004; Scheffer and communication of available and are also currently being developed for lim-
et al. 2001). Because changes in the climate emerging adaptation strategies, the feasibil- iting potential damages from global warm-
system are likely to persist into the future ity and effectiveness of adaptation will de- ing in irrigated and rain-fed cropping
regardless of emissions mitigation, adapta- pend on the adaptive capacity of the systems, while sustaining agricultural yields.
tion is an essential response for future pro- ecological system or social entity. The polar and subpolar regions, another
tection of climate-sensitive ecosystems. Thus, increasing adaptive capacity will CCSP priority, have exhibited more rapid
Adaptation options for enhancing require information and tools that aid in changes than the lower latitudes (AC and
ecosystem resilience include changes in (1) understanding the combined effects on IASC 2004). The U.S. Army Cold Regions
processes, practices, or structures to reduce ecosystems of climate changes and noncli- Research and Engineering Laboratory
anticipated damages or enhance beneficial mate stressors, and consequent implica- (CRREL) is the lead U.S. government labo-
responses associated with climate variability tions for achieving specific management ratory for polar and subpolar expertise.
and change. In some cases, opportunities goals; (2) applying existing management CRREL research has examined the impacts
for adaptation offer stakeholders multiple options or developing new adaptation ap- of climate change on retreating Arctic sea
benefit outcomes, such as the addition of ri- proaches that reduce the risk of negative ice to assist in defining the requirements for
parian buffer strips that, for example, man- outcomes; and (3) understanding the op- U.S. Coast Guard ice-breaking ships for the
age pollution loadings from agricultural portunities and barriers that affect success- next 30 years. Satellite data show that the ex-
land into rivers or provide a protective bar- ful implementation of management tent of Arctic sea ice has decreased by about
rier to increases in both pollution and sed- strategies to address climate change im- 10 percent, and the upward-looking sonar
iment loadings that may be associated with pacts. data from U.S. Navy submarines between
future climate or other environmental CCSP’s Ecosystem Adaptation Work 1957 and 2000 show the average ice thick-
change. Adaptation options also include One example of work by CCSP in im- ness has decreased by 33–42 percent.
measures that would reduce current vulner- proving the adaptive capacity of ecosystems State-of-the-art knowledge on ecosys-
abilities to ecosystems—e.g., loss of habitat relates to understanding climate and wild- tem impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability
and migratory corridors—by enhancing fire interactions on a regional scale for the will be addressed in three different CCSP
the productivity of current food and agri- western United States (Roads et al. 2005; synthesis and assessment products: S&A
cultural practices (Goklany 1995, 1998, Reinbold et al. 2004), development of long- Product 4.2, State-of-Knowledge of Thresh-
2007). Such options could reduce what is lead forecasts for use by wildfire managers olds of Change That Could Lead to
frequently considered to be an important (Brown et al. 2003), and compilation of a Discontinuities in Some Ecosystems and
threat to biodiversity, as well as conserve comprehensive new western U.S. 21-year Climate-Sensitive Resources; S&A Product
carbon stocks and sinks, but the potential fire history to facilitate climate-based pre- 4.3, The Effects of Climate Change on Agri-
for those systems to be affected by a chang- dictions of the potential severity of the fire culture, Biodiversity, Land, and Water Re-
ing climate needs to be taken into account season several months in advance (Wester- sources; and S&A Product 4.4, Preliminary
as adaptation and mitigation options are ling et al. 2003). The United States supports Review of Adaptation Options for Climate-
evaluated. yearly regional meetings to prepare fire Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources.
A range of adaptation options is possible forecasts that integrate the complex pattern International Ecosystem Adaptation
for many ecosystems, but a lack of informa- of fire potential anomalies, current and Activities
evolving climate conditions, fuel types, ex- Internationally, the United States collab-
13 For example, see , , factors, such as drought- or insect-induced a broad range of activities designed to better
, . forest mortality.13 understand climate and its implications for
14 For example, see . work related to managed ecosystems in- mate variability and change. These activities
CHAPTER 6 —VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, AND ADAPTATION MEASURES 73
include analyzing data from Earth observa- mental change. CDC’s Division of Vector- cephalitis outbreaks (e.g., indicators for
tions, developing decision-support tools, Borne Infectious Diseases is currently col- rainfall, runoff, and temperature) in Cali-
and integrating climate information into laborating on studies to outline adaptation fornia. The model demonstrates that mos-
development projects. For example, USAID measures for vector-borne infectious dis- quito abundance patterns and associated
and NOAA collaborate with developing eases that may be affected by climate patterns of encephalitis risk vary spatially
country partners to operate the Famine change. Its Guatemala field station is across the different biomes of California
Early Warning System Network (FEWS studying the impact that adverse climato- and show strong links to climate variations
NET), which combines data from satellite logical events, such as El Niño and (Barker et al. 2003).
observations with local meteorological, Hurricane Gilbert, have had on the trans- Another example of a decision-support
crop, and livelihood information to provide mission dynamics of malaria and other tool is the Excessive Heat Events Guidebook,
decision makers with early warnings of diseases. These catastrophic events result developed by EPA and other federal
food security risks. FEWS NET operates in in tremendous changes that can simulta- agencies responsible for addressing “exces-
21 countries and has been providing early neously create new vector habitat, reduce sive heat events” (EHEs) (U.S. EPA/OAP
warnings for 20 years. Similar programs are the levels of sanitation, and overwhelm the 2006a). The guidebook provides interested
being developed to warn of risks of malaria, ability of public health systems to respond. public health officials with information on
meningitis, and pests. Global Change Research Program risks and impacts from EHEs, including
Public Health Assessments guidance on EHE forecasting and identi-
Throughout the world, the prevalence of EPA’s Global Change Research Program fication. It also provides a menu of notifi-
some diseases and other threats to human is undertaking important work assessing cation and response actions to consider
health depends largely on local climate. the relationships between climate change when developing or enhancing a local
Given the complexity of the factors that in- and human health. This assessment work EHE program based in part upon a review
fluence human health, assessing health im- goes beyond basic epidemiological re- of various EHE response programs.16
pacts related to climate change poses a search to develop integrated health assess- CCSP S&A Product 4.6, Analyses of the
difficult challenge (NRC 2001). The extent ment frameworks that consider the effects Effects of Global Change on Human Health
and nature of climate change impacts on of multiple stresses, their interactions, and and Welfare and Human Systems, will pro-
human health vary by region, by relative human adaptive responses. Along with vide a timely update to the 2000 Health
sensitivity of population groups, by the ex- health sector assessments, conducted in Sector Assessment (Patz et al. 2000). This
tent and duration of exposure to climate conjunction with the U.S. Global Change product will, in part, report on the poten-
change itself, and by society’s ability to Research Program’s National Assessment tial human health effects of global
adapt to or cope with the change (Rose et process, the work includes research and environmental change, and the climate, so-
al. 2001). The U.S. government has under- assessment activities focused on the con- cioeconomic, and environmental informa-
taken several initiatives to better understand sequences of global change on weather- tion that is needed to assess the cumulative
and to develop and implement responses to related morbidity and vector- and water- risk to health in the United States from
these potential changes. borne diseases. In addition, the results these effects. It will also inform adaptations
from the Global Change Research Pro- in the provision of public health and health
Centers for Disease Control and care interventions.
Prevention Research gram's air quality assessments will be used
A variety of efforts are underway in the to evaluate health consequences.15 Coasts
United States to reduce negative health Decision-Support Tools Sea level is rising 2–3 millimeters
outcomes related to climate variability and One example of a decision-support (0.08–0.12 inches) per year along most of
change. For example, the Division of Envi- tool that has been developed to help re- the U.S. coast (Zervas 2001). Accounting for
ronmental Hazards and Health Effects duce the negative effects of climate vari- local subsidence, coastal scientists are
within the U.S. Department of Health and ability and change on human health is considering the possible impacts of a 1–3-
Human Services’ Centers for Disease Con- work on encephalitis viruses. The risk of foot rise in sea level over the next century
trol and Prevention (CDC) conducts in- infection from these viruses depends in (IPCC 2001a). Key concerns associated
tramural research to investigate morbidity part on temperature-related factors. Activ- with these changes include land loss, in-
and mortality associated with exposure to ities are underway that use climate fore- creased flooding of low-lying coastal com-
excessive heat. Also, renewed concern casting at various spatial scales to alert munities, coastal erosion, barrier island
about emerging and re-emerging infec- local and state public health officials to
15 See .
tious diseases has prompted increased at- changing risks of encephalitis infection. A 16 See .
incidence would be affected by environ- acterizes climate factors related to en-
74
74 U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT—2006
U.S. CLIMATE ACTION REPORT—2006
migration, vertical accretion of wetlands, property by erecting shore protection struc- elevation data for producing assess-
and increased salinity of aquifers and estu- tures such as bulkheads, which eliminate ments of shoreline erosion and other
aries, especially during droughts. the intertidal wetlands and beaches that coastal processes through its National
Approximately half the U.S. popula- would otherwise be found between the Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards.
tion—153 million people—lives in one of water and the dry land. Several states have FEMA has conducted similar analyses.
the 673 coastal counties; this number is ex- adopted policies to ensure that beaches, • USGS also evaluates the ability of wet-
pected to grow by 7 million by 2008 (U.S. dunes, or wetlands are able to migrate in- lands to keep pace with rising relative sea
DOC/NOAA 2004). Increases in coastal land as sea level rises. Some states prohibit level.
vulnerability are strongly affected by in- new houses in areas likely to be eroded in • EPA has been working with local gov-
creasing coastal populations (Höppe and the next 30–60 years (e.g. North Carolina ernments to create county-scale maps
Pielke 2006), as well by as the effects of sea Coastal Resources Commission). Con- that identify the areas likely to require
level rise and changes in the intensity and cerned about the need to protect property shore protection as sea level rises.
frequency of coastal storms. After a period rights, Maine, Rhode Island, South Car- • The New York City Department of Envi-
of relatively light activity, the Atlantic basin olina, and Texas have implemented some ronmental Protection is analyzing the ef-
has recently experienced an increase in hur- version of “rolling easements,” in which fects of current and future sea level rise
ricane activity, the cause of which is the sub- people are allowed to build, but only on the on its coastal infrastructure (Rosenzweig
ject of ongoing scientific debate (e.g., condition that they will remove the struc- et al. 2007).
Webster et al. 2005; Hoyos et al. 2006; ture if and when it is threatened by an ad- • CCSP S&A Product 4.1, Coastal Eleva-
Kossin et al. 2007; Landsea et al. 2006). vancing shoreline (IPCC 2001b). tions and Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise, will
Concern over this increasing societal vul- synthesize information from the ongo-
Developing Data for Addressing Sea
nerability is leading some insurance com- Level Rise ing mapping efforts by federal and non-
panies to increase rates or deny property Many agencies and individuals are de- federal researchers related to the
coverage to communities along the Gulf veloping data that can provide insights implications of rising sea level.
and Atlantic coasts (Mills 2005). Due largely regarding the implications of sea level rise. Transportation
to improved warning systems, death and Following are some examples of these ef- Transportation accounts for approxi-
death rates from extreme weather events forts: mately one-quarter of total U.S. greenhouse
have generally declined since the beginning • NASA, with its partner the French space gas emissions. Climate change will most
of the 20th century. agency, continues to provide climate- likely have significant impacts on trans-
Reducing Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise quality global sea level data every 10 days. portation infrastructure and operations
In recognition of significant potential • The Federal Emergency Management (U.S. DOT 2006b). The safety and security
impacts from climate change, the Federal Agency (FEMA), the U.S. Army Corps of the national transportation infrastruc-
Coastal Zone Management Act states: “Be- of Engineers, and several states are de- ture, as well as emergency and routine
cause global warming may result in a sub- veloping elevation data for floodplain transportation operations, could also be af-
stantial sea-level rise with serious adverse management. fected (U.S. DOT 2006b). Examples of spe-
effects in the coastal zone, coastal states • NOAA and the U.S. Geological Survey cific types of impacts include softening of
must anticipate and plan for such an occur- (USGS) are developing Digital Elevation asphalt roads, warping of railroad rails, de-
rence (16 US Code § 1451).” Property own- Models that use a common vertical ref- creased airplane “lift” in extremely hot air,
ers and federal, state, and local governments erence frame for both topographic and and damage to roads and opening of ship-
are already starting to take measures to pre- bathymetric maps (Hess et al. 2004). ping routes in polar regions (IPCC 2001b).
pare for the consequences of rising sea level. • Local governments and major coastal The United States is working to provide
Most coastal states are working with the land conservancies are developing geo- better information to decision makers
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to place sand graphic information system land-use across the transportation sector about what
onto their beaches to offset shore erosion. data for managing ecosystems and eco- future climate variability and change could
Property owners are elevating existing nomic growth. mean for existing and planned infrastruc-
structures in many low-lying areas, which • The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is de- ture and about the set of potential response
provide resilience to episodic storms as well veloping relevant wetlands data. strategies that might be implemented to
as long-term change. • NOAA’s Coastal Change Analysis Pro- adapt to future climate.
Shoreline erosion along estuaries has led gram periodically provides a compre-
DOT Programs, Initiatives, and Studies
many property owners to defend their hensive assessment of land cover
The Center for Climate Change and En-
changes in the U.S. coastal zone.
vironmental Forecasting is an initiative of
• USGS collects high-resolution LIDAR
17 See . the U.S. Department of Transportation
CHAPTER 6 —VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, AND ADAPTATION MEASURES 75
(DOT) dedicated to fostering awareness of The net effects of these changes on energy ple, changes in the frequency and magni-
the potential links between transportation production, use, and utility bills will vary tudes of more extreme weather events,
and global climate change, and to formu- by region and by season (Hadley et al. such as windstorms, ice storms, floods,
lating policy options to deal with the chal- 2006; Scott et al. 2005). There may be tornadoes, and hail, and associated dam-
lenges posed by climate change and changes in energy consumed for other ages to the transmission systems of electric
variability.17 Several DOT programs are climate-sensitive processes, such as pump- utilities may affect the rate of failure with
helping to curb greenhouse gas emissions ing water for irrigation in agriculture attendant costs (IPCC 2001b). Power plant
and pollution from transportation, includ- (Peart et al. 1995; IPCC 2001b). Depend- operations can be affected by the fre-
ing the Automotive Fuel Economy Pro- ing on the magnitude of these possible en- quency and magnitude of extreme heat
gram, the Congestion Mitigation and Air ergy consumption changes, it may be and cold waves. For example, intake water
Quality Improvement Program, and the necessary to consider changes in energy that is normally used to cool power plants
Voluntary Airport Low Emissions Program. supply or conservation practices to bal- may become warm enough during ex-
DOT research projects are investigating the ance demand (Franco and Sanstad 2006; treme heat events to compromise power
potential impacts of climate variability and CEPA 2006). plant operations, or ice storms may bring
change on transportation infrastructure Hydropower down transmission lines.
and its operation, and are providing guid- To date, less research has been under- Energy Supply and Demand
ance as to how transportation planners and taken on how climate change may affect Climate change effects on energy sup-
decision makers may incorporate this infor- energy production. Hydropower genera- ply and demand will depend not only on
mation into transportation planning deci- tion is the energy source that is likely to be climatic factors, but also on patterns of
sions to ensure a reliable and robust future most directly affected by climate change economic growth, land use, population
transportation network. because it is sensitive to the amount, tim- growth and distribution, technological
DOT has partnered with the National ing, and geographic pattern of precipita- change, and social and cultural trends that
Academies of Science/Transportation Re- tion and temperature (IPCC 2001b). shape individual and institutional actions
search Board (TRB) to study strategies for However, changes in precipitation are dif- (IPCC 2001b).
the transportation system to adapt to po- ficult to project at the regional scale, which
tential impacts of climate change. The Prospects for Adaptation
means that climate change will affect hy- Because of the lack of research to date,
DOT/TRB study will reexamine the role of dropower either positively or negatively,
design standards for transportation infra- prospects for adaptation to climate change
depending on the region. effects by energy providers, energy users,
structure considering potential impacts
from climate change, develop operational Renewable Energy and society at large are speculative, al-
responses to potential climate change im- Some renewable sources of energy though the potentials are considerable.
pacts, and review approaches to decision could be affected by climate change, al- Perhaps the greatest challenges could be in
making under uncertainty. though these changes are very difficult to connection with possible increases in the
A related DOT study is focusing on the predict. If climate change leads to in- intensity of extreme weather events and
central U.S. Gulf Coast. The region’s creased cloudiness, solar energy produc- possible significant changes in regional
unique transport modes and commercial tion could be reduced. Wind energy water supply regimes. But adaptation
significance add texture and interest to its production would be reduced if wind prospects depend considerably on the
transportation sector, while its unusual to- speeds rise above or fall below the accept- availability of information about possible
pography and geographic location make it able operating range of the technology. climate change effects to inform decisions
particularly vulnerable to sea level rise and Changes in growing conditions could af- about adaptive management, along with
the threat of severe weather events. Results fect biomass production—a transporta- technological change in the longer term.
from this research will be reported in tion and power plant fuel source that is Given that the current knowledge base is
CCSP S&A Product 4.7, Impacts of Climate starting to receive more attention (IPCC so limited, CCSP S&A Product 4.5, Effects
Change and Variability on Transportation 2001b). Climate change may also have of Global Change on Energy Production and
Systems and Infrastructure. complex effects on U.S. energy conditions Use, will summarize what is currently
through effects on global and hemispheric known about effects of climate change on
Energy energy markets and policies. energy production and use in the United
Energy production and use are sensitive States and will address needs for expanded
to changes in climate. For example, in- Energy Infrastructure
Infrastructure for energy production, research, through broad-based collabora-
creasing temperatures will reduce con- tion among federal and state governments,
sumption of energy for heating but will transmission, and distribution could be af-
fected by climate change as well. For exam- industry, nongovernmental institutions,
increase energy used for cooling buildings. and academia.