Portfolio Manager Conference Call Series
Highlights from Excel Latin America Fund Portfolio Manager Conference Call (March 3rd, 2009)
We are pleased to share the following quotes from
Roberto Nemr, Portfolio Manager, Banco Itaú
Currency appreciation and interest rates fall
In the three countries, Mexico’s interest rates fell by 75 basis points to 6.75%. In Brazil, interest rates fell by 150
base points to 11.25%. And in Chile, they reached 2.25%, which is the lowest level in many years.
Pension funds are starting to buy again
The local pension funds are starting to buy again. If you look to Mexico, there was a deal between the pension funds with
their government, where the local pension fund seeks to increase their position in domestic assets. In Chile, for the big
pension fund companies now, the opportunity cost [of bonds] is very low, which gives them an incentive to start buying again.
Brazil might lower interest rates to single digits which is good news for managers
And in Brazil we are moving to single-digit interest rate, which is unusual, which will attract both foreign and
domestic investment. I think there is room for further cuts. We believe that Brazil can go to 8% and Mexico can go
to 5.5-6%. And in Chile, it’s pretty much done, but there may be room for another 25 basis point cut.
Latin countries are employing fiscal policies as well to stimulate their economies
We see that the fiscal policies in Chile are coming from all the money saved from the copper boom in recent
years. The total aggregate volume is like 4-5% of GDP that they will be spending. In Mexico, there is also a fiscal
plan of 1.5% of GDP that will be spent on infrastructure. In Brazil, they are continuing with their plans to use the
state banks to help the economy; plus they just announced a package to stimulate civil construction, increasing
the spending there for the low end.
Believes oil prices will not impact heavily on Mexico’s economy
I think with regards to the fiscal situation in Mexico in the unlikelihood if oil prices don’t recover by 2010; they
would have to find 1% of GDP of extra revenues to keep the fiscal deficit within the target of 1.5% of GDP. So, to
fund that, you can increase taxes on specific products or a general increase in the VAT, which is not difficult to do.
If oil prices don’t recover, they are still covered with a hedge at $70, because 30% of the budget comes from
PEMEX, which is the state-owned oil company. But in net terms, it’s only 15% because they import a lot of oil, so
it’s not as huge as people sometimes believe.
Believes Brazil will recover significantly and the current prices are undervalued
I think the long term opportunity is very clear. This year we have the GDP falling to 1%. However, it’s still better
than the world but we anticipate the rebound next year to be 4.5%, so it’s a big recovery. We will enter this
growth cycle with lower interest rates than before, so I think that will be very supportive for earnings growth and
market performance. Today Brazil is trading at around 10 times this year’s earnings, which is 20-30% below the
average of the last six years, and with lower rates, we expect to see earnings recover next year, so I think the level
of valuation that we see today in Brazil are quite attractive.
Most Latin countries are not affected by the decline in exports due to their relatively low contribution to GDP or
they are well equipped in reserves to cover their losses.
Brazil’s exports account for only 11% of GDP, so the net effect of global slowdown is lower than more open
economies in Asia. The most vulnerable to the global economy is Chile, which has nearly 40% of GDP in exports.
They are feeling the industrial production slowdown but they have a lot of weapons to stimulate domestic
demand because they save the extra money from copper. Mexico is also relatively closed. It is approximately 15%
of the net contribution, despite the NAFTA. If you add the total volume of exports to the U.S., it’s similar to the
volume of the imports, so the net contribution of the export sector is not that big.
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