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  • pg 1
									                                                                                For professional investors - JANUARY
                                                                                For professional investors - OCTOBER             2011


CONTENTs                                        Beyond peak uncertainty?
                                                Among all the challenges financial markets face, two clearly stand out: worries over
Economic Outlook                           2    a US double dip and the eurozone crisis. Dismal news over the summer caused a
US fiscal policy in the spotlight               huge sell-off in equity markets, but the current rebound is raising the question of
                                                whether we may have passed the peak in uncertainty. If this is the case, then while
Risk & Asset Allocation                    3    many uncertainties remain, it implies risks are now less tilted to the downside. US
Markets to remain volatile                      employment data early this month were a clear relief, with jobs growth well above
                                                expectations and an upward revision of the previous month’s data. Other evidence
Fixed Income                              4-5   (durable goods orders) suggests the US may yet avoid a double dip. In the eurozone,
Active management and downside                  cyclical data disappointed but all eyes are on the strategy to resolve the crisis. This
protection                                      has been narrowed to a package including a proposition to enlarge the EFSF to create
                                                a “buyer of last resort” for peripheral debt.
Convertibles                            6
Catch some shade with convertible bonds         However, it is unclear whether these moves will be sufficient to structurally reduce
                                                stress. First, there is the issue of restructuring Greek debt. Second, it would take a
Alternative Assets                         7    much larger EFSF to be able to absorb Spanish and Italian borrowing requirements if
Approaching volatility: use, weather or         the private sector remains reluctant to buy it, and dramatically increasing the EFSF’s
avoid?                                          size is facing political opposition. These moves may be sufficient to structurally reduce
                                                stress, but “the devil is in the detail” – and in the execution. For now, the talks go on
Emerging Markets                       8        and the corridor comments are not always aligned. By promising “answers” at the
EM stocks are vulnerable but investors          upcoming EU and G20 summits, political leaders have raised the stakes, prompting an
shouldn’t give up hope                          equity rally.

SPOTLIGHT                                       As always, do not hesitate to contact your Client Relationship Manager for further
Interview                                 10
How can 9 bn people be fed?
                                                Written 17 October 2011
Expert’s View                             12
Challenging received wisdom

                                                                                                      William De Vijlder
                                                                                              CIO Strategy and Partners
2 - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - PERsPECTIVEs - October 2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                   ECONOMIC OUTlOOk
                                                                                                                                                 Nathalie Benatia
                                                                                                                                             Strategist - BNPP AM

     US fiscal policy in the spotlight
     This is 2011 AD, and all the developed countries are involved in                          Congress’s vote goes beyond a mere extension of the measures
     fiscal deficit reduction programmes. All? No!1 It is not a little village                 already in place.
     that is resisting, but the biggest economy of all, though it is far
     from the most virtuous in matters of public finances. A reminder of                       What will happen afterwards?
     this reality was given in early August by the decision − essentially                      The US budgetary process is complex, and recent developments
     symbolic − of Standard & Poor’s to deprive US sovereign debt of                           do not make things any easier. First, the USD 2 100 billion
     its AAA rating. And yet, even though the deficit for the fiscal year                      increase in the debt ceiling was passed at the end of July in
     just ended is expected, according to the latest estimates by the                          return for a commitment to make cumulative spending cuts
     Congressional Budget Office (CBO), to reach USD 1 280 billion (8.5%                       for at least an equivalent amount over the next 10 years4. A
     of GDP), President Obama has presented a new stimulus package2                            USD 900 billion reduction in so-called discretionary spending
     designed chiefly to increase employment.                                                  (operating expenditure, including military spending) has already
                                                                                               been approved and a USD 1 500 billion reduction in the deficit is to
     Déjà vu                                                                                   be debated by an ad hoc bipartisan 12-member “super committee”.
     The initial estimated cost of the plan is USD 447 billion (i.e. 3%                        If this committee is unable to reach agreement before 23 November,
     of GDP) and the main features extend or adapt measures already                            or if Congress does not pass its proposals, then automatic cuts
     in place, such as the reduction in employees’ social security                             in discretionary and mandatory spending, in particular some
     contributions and an extension of long-term unemployment                                  healthcare expenditure, will be triggered. The CBO’s estimates5
     benefits which, barring agreement, will be suspended at the end                           show that the short-term impact of these decisions on the deficit
     of 2011. These represent about USD 180 billion. A reduction in                            (and hence on activity) will be limited. The idea behind the Budget
     employers’ social security contributions for job creation is in the                       Control Act is, as its name indicates, to return gradually to improved
     offing, as well as a tax credit for hiring the long-term unemployed.                      fiscal discipline. Here again, this is generally a good idea.
     The tax breaks and allocations focused directly on employment
     add up to about USD 300 billion (taking into account a further                            In addition to the debates in the super committee, which are likely
     reduction in the rate of employees’ social security contributions).                       to be very lively given the personalities involved, there will be
     The remainder of the plan consists of infrastructure spending and                         the vote on the budget for the current fiscal year and discussions
     state support, in particular to prevent public sector layoffs.                            concerning the jobs plan. The impression resulting from these
                                                                                               debates will not necessarily be flattering for the US politicians.
     A good idea in the short term.                                                            The effect on confidence will probably not be what was expected
     Although it is impossible to know what part of the plan will be                           either: it is unlikely that US households will embark on purchases of
     passed, it seems plausible that the Republicans, who have a                               large-ticket items or that companies will hire and invest massively.
     majority in the House of Representatives, will not want to appear                         Unlike in the eurozone, fiscal policy will not be restrictive in the
     responsible for fiscal tightening at a time when growth remains                           United States but, as things stand at present, it is hard to imagine
     very fragile. President Obama deliberately dramatised the issue                           that it will provide a lasting stimulus for activity.
     when presenting his plan before Congress, staged in a manner
                                                                                               1 We hope that our readers will pardon us this allusion to Asterix, which may seem very remote
     similar to the State of the Union speech. Moreover, since his Jackson                       from investors’ concerns, and very French, moreover. As a reminder, though, the little Gaul
     Hole speech at the end of August, Ben Bernanke has repeatedly said                          travelled the world, his adventures have been translated into 107 languages, and a little magic
     that monetary policy has already done a lot to stimulate growth                             potion would not be a bad thing for the global economy at present.
                                                                                               2 The American Jobs Act, presented on 8 September 2011.
     and that fiscal decisions that could negatively affect the recovery                       3 The finance ministers and central bank governors at the G20 meeting in Washington on
     should be avoided3. At present, even though the question remains                            22 September said exactly the same thing in their press release, asserting that they were
                                                                                                 "determined to stimulate growth" just after referring to the American jobs plan and the
     above all political, it seems likely that the US economy will not                           reconstruction measures in Japan.
     experience budget restrictions next year. It could even benefit from                      4 Budget Control Act
     a further slight boost (+0.8% compared with the core scenario) if                         5 CBO analysis of August 1 Budget Control Act, available at http://www.cbo.gov/

     Consensus forecasts: Growth & Inflation
      October 2011                                                     GDP YoY %                                                               Inflation YoY %
      M= Mean; H= High; l=low                2010              2011                            2012                2010                    2011                               2012
      Developed Economies                            M     H      L      -1M       M     H        L      -1M                  M       H       L       -1M        M       H       L      -1M
      USA                                      3.0   1.6   1.9   1.4     [1.8]     2.1   3.6     1.2     [2.4]       1.6      3.1    3.2     2.7     [3.0]      2.1     3.5     0.9     [2.1]
      Canada                                   3.1   2.3   2.7   2.1     [2.7]     2.1   2.7     1.5     [2.5]      1.8       2.8    4.0     0.9     [2.9]      2.0     5.7     2.4     [2.1]
      Eurozone                                 1.7   1.7   1.9   1.6     [1.9]     1.0   1.4     0.5     [1.5]      1.6       2.6    2.7     2.4     [2.6]      1.8     2.1     1.3     [1.9]
      Uk                                       1.3   1.2   1.6   0.9     [1.3]     1.8   2.7     0.9     [2.0]      3.3       4.4    4.7     4.0     [4.4]      2.7     3.6     1.9     [2.7]
      Switzerland                              2.6   2.0   2.8   1.6     [2.2]     1.3   2.0     0.7     [1.7]      0.7       0.5    1.1     0.3     [0.7]      0.7     1.8     0.0     [1.0]
      Japan                                   3.9    -0.5 0.3 -1.1 -[0.7]          2.4   3.6     0.9     [3.1]      -0.7     -0.2 0.4 -0.5            [0.3]    -0.2 1.0 -0.9            [0.2]
      Australia                               2.7    1.8   2.8   1.2     [1.7]     3.7   4.5     2.5     [3.8]       2.8      3.4    3.7     3.2     [3.4]      2.9     3.4     2.2     [2.9]
     Source: Consensus Forecasts as of 12/09/2011
                                                                                                                                                              For professional investors
3 - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - PERsPECTIVEs - October 2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                          RIsk & AssET AllOCATION
                                                                                                                                                        Vincent Treulet
                                                                                                                                         Head of Strategy - BNPP AM

     Markets to remain volatile
     This summer you adopted a more cautious investment                                                     still poses a problem for us, and we see more value in corporate
     policy and recommendations. Are you holding to this                                                    credit spreads after they widened in recent months. A lacklustre
     positioning?                                                                                           economic scenario should not imply a sharp increase in default
     Yes. We expect risky asset markets to remain volatile and                                              rates. However, although this value can be captured by holding the
     relatively bearish. They have plunged since the end of July on                                         bonds to maturity, prices could suffer further in the short term from
     fears concerning economic growth and the eurozone sovereign                                            spells of risk aversion. Lastly, emerging debt is another possible
     crisis. These factors are likely to persist, because they are also                                     alternative and we are waiting for an appropriate time to buy more,
     symptoms of a more profound problem facing the developed                                               especially in local currency, since this asset class has suffered from
     economies: total debt leverage (private and public) is still                                           currency declines.
     historically high. This is not a recent discovery because, at the
     macroeconomic level, it is precisely one of the factors explaining                                     Should we currently be factoring inflation into asset
     the crisis that began in 2007-2008. However, the slowdown in                                           allocations?
     growth has thrown the spotlight on this difficult problem again                                        It’s clearly still too early to do so. We believe there is major
     after it was masked by the recovery since 2009. Apart from                                             long-term risk of inflation in the industrialised economies, partly
     cyclical fears, it is a factor of financial tension and uncertainty                                    because of the monetary policies currently being pursued, but
     that will probably continue to weigh on markets. At the economic                                       also because the temptation could grow over the coming years
     level, we expect chronically sluggish conditions to prevail rather                                     to use inflation to lighten the debt burden. However, we expect
     than a double dip recession in all the developed economies, but                                        no imminent acceleration of inflation, and it is unlikely that
     this will probably be accompanied by persistent fears about the                                        markets will start to price in such a phenomenon without first
     economy and financial stress that will adversely affect risky                                          seeing signs of it. Longer-term, though, this is a theme to watch.
     assets.                                                                                                But we believe it would be a strategic error to punt immediately
                                                                                                            on so-called ‘real’ assets (equities, property, etc.) as a hedge
     So what positions do you recommend at present?                                                         against inflation. They offer good protection once inflation has
     We have a negative bias on developed equities. Pending a ‘technical’                                   set in, but, knowing that this is not really being factored in at
     rebound, we had in the short term maintained a measure of                                              present, an inflationary shock would cause an initial correction in
     neutrality, but now we are adopting a negative stance following the                                    fixed income markets. By repercussion, long-term assets that are
     market rebound of end September/early October. On fundamental                                          sensitive to interest rates could initially suffer a correction before
     grounds, we still prefer emerging equities to developed equities,                                      they actually benefit from inflation. Until such a shock occurs, the
     even though the correlation with developed markets is a handicap                                       best hedges against inflation are a shortening of the duration of
     for them. In fixed income, the valuation of government bonds                                           fixed income investments, inflation-linked bonds, or investment
     issued by the soundest countries (United States, Germany, etc.)                                        products offering contractual protection.

     Asset allocation
                         MUlTI-AssET ClAss                                         EqUITIEs DEVElOPED COUNTRIEs                                       EqUITIEs EMERGING COUNTRIEs
                                       CURRENT          PREvIOUS                                           CURRENT          PREvIOUS                                          CURRENT          PREvIOUS
      EQUITIES                                                           US                                      +                +          Brazil                                  -               -
      Developed Equities                      -                =         Canada                                  -                -          China                                   +               +
      Emerging Equities                       =                +         Eurozone                                -                -          India                                   =               =
      FIxED INCOME                                                       Japan                                   +                +          South-korea                             =               =
      Government Bonds                        =                =         Uk                                      +                +          Taiwan                                  -               -
      Corporate Bonds                         =                =         Switzerland                             =                -          Russia                                  +               +
      High Yield                              =                =         Australia                               -                -          South Africa                            =               =
      Emerging Debt (ext.)                    =                =                                                                             Turkey                                  -                -
      Emerging Debt (local)                   =                +                    BONDs COUNTRIEs sOVEREIGN
      COMMODITIES                                                                                          CURRENT          PREvIOUS
      Brent Oil                               =                +         US                                      =                =
      Base Metals                             =                =         Eurozone                                =                =
      Gold                                    +                +         Japan                                   =                =
      Agricultural                            =                -         Uk                                      =                =
      CASH                                    -                -         Switzerland                             =                =
     Notes: The indications in the tables reflect views not weights, whereby the “+”, “-” and “=” signs respectively represent positive, negative and neutral views. Two different types of views are expressed
     in the tables. Those in the Multi-Asset Class Module are absolute returns views, or more precisely views on excess returns versus cash. Those in the equities and bond modules are relative return
     views. Here we assess relative excess returns amongst different countries. These views can of course be translated into portfolio weights. Their size will heavily depend on portfolio constraints and
     the specific risk budgets.
     Source: BNPP AM - October 2011

                                                                                                                                                                            For professional investors
4 - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - PERsPECTIVEs - October 2011

                                                                                                                                                                                                        FIxED INCOME
                                                                                                                                   stéphane Blanchoz
                                                                                                 CIO, Aternative Fixed Income & Structuring - BNPP AM

     Active management and downside protection
     Historical analysis is widely used in finance when measuring risk. However, history tells investors
     that financial market movements often appear unpredictable using historical data. The risk
     framework of active management should thus be seen in light of investor demand: using the skills
     of experienced professionals to generate value while benefitting from clear downside protection to
     avoid being trapped in rare and extreme scenarios. Here, we describe a possible solution to address
     this requirement.

     The search for alpha is largely about implementing smart                                          assumptions. Even Monte Carlo simulations would be calibrated
     investment decisions in portfolios. What ‘smart’ means is                                         using historical assumptions. Additionally the figure you will get
     generally assessed ex-post and directly linked to the realised                                    is certainly not a sure amount of any maximum loss.
     performance of the investment strategy. However, it does not tell
     us how much money could have been lost had the decision been                                      CPPI, the first popular downside protection mechanism
     wrong.                                                                                            In the face of such incertitude, benefitting from a level of
                                                                                                       security against extreme events is most valuable for investors.
     When managing a portfolio, the key objective is indeed to extract                                 And using cushion management techniques precisely enables
     value and to perform, in other words to realise a financial gain                                  portfolio managers to extract value within a secure framework
     from an investment decision. However, simultaneously we need                                      for investors. Indeed, this type of investment process offers
     to consider that a financial loss could also occur following this                                 investors the benefit of a formal capital guarantee within a
     investment decision - hence the need to set risk limits. To be                                    given timeframe and also provides access to the expertise of
     specific, in active management, risk is often assimilated to                                      professionals to define, implement and monitor investment
     volatility. Indeed, one can be right on an investment decision                                    strategies. These cushion management techniques, widely used
     over a three-month period but nevertheless suffer a temporary                                     to leverage an asset class on a systematic basis, led to the strong
     financial loss as financial market movements do not usually                                       development of so-called CPPI (Constant Proportion Portfolio
     follow straight lines. However, there are two main drawbacks                                      Insurance) products.
     when using the shortcut ‘risk is volatility’.
                                                                                                       CPPI was introduced in the late 1980s, initially for fixed income
     Why risk is not volatility                                                                        instruments and then for equity instruments. The whole idea
     First of all, calculating ex-ante volatility is usually based on                                  was to dynamically allocate assets over time and to set a floor,
     historical data, which means that the core assumption from                                        corresponding to the lowest acceptable value of the portfolio. In
     a risk perspective is that: the future movement of a financial                                    practice, the cushion is the excess of the portfolio value over the
     instrument is primarily determined by its past movements. After                                   floor and the amount allocated to risky assets is a predetermined
     several financial crises and as described in many Nassim Taleb                                    multiple of this cushion. The beauty of this technique is that it
     books, most of the financial community knows that finance is                                      gives investors downside protection and at the same time gives
     dominated by extreme events. In brief, if you solely consider                                     constant and systematic exposure to an asset class.
     historical data, normal laws and other empirical ways to precisely
     assess the future, you might end up with a serious misperception                                  Insurance: adapted to today’s demands
     of risks and be exposed to ‘black swans’1!                                                        The idea is now to benefit from active management while keeping
                                                                                                       the same security for investors, i.e. a capital guarantee over a
     Secondly, a volatility figure does not tell you how much could                                    given timeframe. As shown in chart, the maximum possible risk
     actually be lost. The value-at-Risk (vaR) measurement partially                                   (the cushion) is linked to the present value of the guarantee
     addresses volatility shortfalls. Indeed, vaR estimates possible                                   that is given at maturity and the risk guidelines are defined with
     losses of a portfolio over a given period of time and under                                       the guarantor to account for extreme scenarios with the aim of
     different levels of confidence (and vice versa). In that sense, vaR                               insuring that the investor is immune from extreme risk scenarios.
     will usually look at severe risk cases and give you an estimate                                   The portfolio manager is then responsible for implementing
     of potential loss. One example of vaR would be the potential                                      active management and deciding on the risk budget consumption
     and theoretical ‘maximum’ loss over 10 days and in 99% of the                                     level (the exposure to active management). Finally, he makes
     cases for a given portfolio. But here again, you would often look                                 sure that the risk associated with active management stays at
     at using normal distribution and historical data to make some                                     all times within the limits set by the guarantor.

     1 “The Black Swan” (N. Taleb) published in 2007, describes how people underestimate the impact of infrequent occurrences. Just as it was assumed that all swans were white until the first black
     species was spotted in Australia during the 17th century, historical analysis is an inadequate way to judge risk, Taleb said.

                                                                                                                                                                    For professional investors
5 - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - PERsPECTIVEs - October 2011

     This mechanism is all the more efficient if the underlying                What does the future hold?
     instruments used to implement the investment strategy are highly          In the current financial environment, this management process
     liquid. Indeed, liquidity is a key aspect of such an investment           makes a lot of sense for investors. With the eurozone crisis,
     process, as the portfolio manager needs to dynamically adjust             recession fears and the significant public deficits in developed
     the exposure over time, paying special attention to transaction           economies which have been fuelling inflation fears, investors
     costs. Investors fully understood the meaning of liquidity risk in        are demanding an increased level of protection from asset
     the midst of the sub-prime crisis during the summer of 2007. And          managers. In this context, we believe that the next generation
     to properly address this requirement, asset managers need to              of actively managed portfolios with downside protection will
     consider the investment instruments used as a core parameter              actually feature a minimum level of yield guarantee when
     of their process. Capturing a liquidity premium is certainly not          possible. For instance, adjusting investors’ principal from realised
     adapted to investment processes based on cushion management               inflation over a given investment horizon and outperforming this
     techniques. On the contrary, unfunded listed instruments,                 minimum level with active management seems very much in
     such as Interest Rate Futures, can prove to be efficient tools to         line with current investors’ expectations. And offering a double
     implement investment decisions with enough flexibility to adjust          guarantee (principal invested and realised inflation) along with
     the exposure in order to permanently maintain some downside               active management is certainly extremely valuable in uncertain
     protection for investors.                                                 times.

                           The “cushion”, defined as the difference between the NAV and the present value of the guarantee, is
                           actually the risk limit (as defined by the guarantor) associated with the exposure to active management.
                           Any performance deriving from active management can further be partially or fully put at risk, according
                           to asset manager’s decision.

                                                      Low-risk                                          guarantee
                                                       Assets                                          at maturity

     For illustrative purpose only
     Source : BNPP AM                                                                                                      For professional investors
6 - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - PERsPECTIVEs - October 2011

                                                                                                           skander Chabbi
                                                                                      Head of Convertible Bonds - BNPP AM

     Catch some shade with convertible bonds
     Our recent editions have focused mainly on the mechanics of convertible bonds. This time, in the
     middle of one of history’s largest sovereign and financial debt crises, we wished to focus on the
     practical behaviour of this asset class so as to highlight for investors the relative advantages of
     holding convertibles over other risky assets in a highly volatile environment.

     Looking back at 2011’s performance as at the end of September,        2. Although the broad rhythm of mergers and acquisitions
     the MSCI World in Local Currency fell 13.9% versus an 8% fall            has decreased because of lower multiple valuations, the
     for the broad convertible market (as measured by the Merrill             global economic slowdown is forcing larger companies to
     Lynch Global 300 Convertible Index in Local Currency), thereby           turn to external growth opportunities. With the convertible
     reflecting 60% of the downside in global stocks.                         market populated by a large number of potential targets in
                                                                              high growth industries (for example, biotech, technology,
     Attractive risk-adjusted returns                                         commodities), and significant sources of outperformance such
     However, of that 60% decline, one must take into account                 as built-in take-over protection, investors can significantly
     the deterioration observed in credit spreads, an important               outperform equivalent equities in a take-over scenario.
     component of convertible bonds. Generally speaking, credit
     default swap (CDS) indices for high yield and investment grade        3. As we near a climax in terms of sovereign debt escalation,
     across the world nearly doubled during the period, lowering              we are tempted to believe that convertible bonds could be
     convertible returns by approximately 1% to 2%. At the same time,         attractive propositions from both the issuers’ and investors’
     option ‘cheapening’ detracted a further 1%, as implied volatilities      perspectives. A need to raise fresh cash on the part of
     did not track the rise in volatility of the underlying stocks.           heavily burdened states could lead to the issuance of some
                                                                              respectably-sized exchangeable bonds, as happened in 2009
     Interestingly, the 1-month historical volatility in returns of the       and 2010. This would allow privatisation programmes to
     asset class reached half the 25.9% level registered by equities,         proceed at a reasonable premium to current market levels
     again demonstrating the superior risk-adjusted returns of                while leaving some room for governments to maintain some
     convertible bonds, even within a very poor environment.                  form of influence over their stakes in national icons.

     Outlook                                                               4. The evolution in solvency requirements for insurance
     While most convertible bond fund managers feared a replay                companies and banks is increasing the benefits of convertible
     of 2008 during this summer, the asset class turned out not               bonds relative to equities. Because of the convex nature of
     to be prone to similar panic. This may be explained by the               the asset class, the required capital is shown to be lower and
     better diffusion of convertibles within the investor base and            therefore less costly for an institutional holder. This could
     by the smaller level of participation from convertible arbitrage         lead to some technical ”richening“ of the asset class on the
     managers, who have not been inclined to increase leverage in a           back of a general search for good quality bonds in a dwindling
     deteriorating market. However, we believe convertible bonds still        universe.
     offer five unique opportunities to investors who wish to reduce
     their volatility yet remain exposed to equity markets:                5. Despite the poor performance of emerging market equities
                                                                              and currencies this September, we still believe in the longer-
     1. With the Federal Reserve’s ‘Operation Twist’ in full swing,           term benefits of investing in high growth areas. As much as
        investors do not appear to be overly worried about inflation.         investors have rushed to build exposure to emerging markets
        We believe, however, that inflation could rise over the medium        through straight debt, the emerging convertible bond market
        term as a result of the successive and massive quantitative           offers a complementary allocation to a diversified sector
        easing policies. With an average term of three to five years          range with little direct exposure to financials.
        and exposure to equities (positively correlated to moderate
        inflation), convertibles are not prone to high interest rate       As investors bank on growth, we ask in return: “what better way
        sensitivity. They stand as low duration corporate credit assets    to capture it than to be indirectly exposed to equities?”.
        inclusive of embedded conversion options that are currently
        cheaply priced.

                                                                                                                     For professional investors
7 - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - PERsPECTIVEs - October 2011

                                                                                                                                                 AlTERNATIVE AssETs
                                                                                                              Antoine Gautier
                                                                      Head of Investment Specialists, Alternative & Structured

     Approaching volatility: use, weather or avoid?
     The crisis marked a turning point in western countries’ macroeconomic dynamics. Markets may, at
     any time, focus on any player (including sovereigns) with low credibility or a weak balance sheet
     that must refinance its debt and thus contend with tighter access to liquidity. These liquidity crises
     are frequent and cause marked rises in volatility. Monetary and fiscal authorities might be willing
     to intervene in such cases, but each new intervention increases players’ mistrust of the financial
     system, with little room for manoeuvring to contain the next crisis.

     Of late, we have again seen a volatile market environment: from         potential per unit of risk, as research1 shows that the lowest risk
     the end of July to 9 September, the volatility of the Eurostoxx         stocks tend to generate higher risk-adjusted returns than riskier
     50 index (vSTOxx) rose from around 28 to almost 54. With                ones. In today’s volatile environment, these strategies could offer
     little clarity on economic growth or on the outcomes of political       an interesting alternative as they tend to concentrate investments
     processes, market participants may struggle to position their           in defensive market segments, have low volatility and low beta.
     investment portfolios, so here we highlight the theme of volatility     Another strategy is to implement a Risk Management Overlay
     and some strategies that we believe work well in this environment.      which offers institutions a way of meeting their long-term
     volatility – the measure of the relative rate at which a security’s     liabilities while managing short-term solvency constraints by
     price rises and falls – can be derived from either the security’s       reducing risk exposure when the funding ratio or capital surplus
     market prices (historical volatility) or from its market-traded         bottom out and increasing it when things improve. It involves
     derivatives (implied volatility). During a market shock, volatility     adjusting a portfolio’s total risk exposure via derivatives without
     rises, as do the prices of corresponding volatility indices and         interfering with securities selection. Thus, the weight of risky
     options. As volatility regimes change frequently, there are various     assets is adjusted depending on market developments to meet a
     ways to approach volatility, and here are three that we believe         pre-defined objective.
     are the most effective.
                                                                             Avoiding volatility
     Using volatility                                                        A third way to deal with volatile financial markets is to pursue
     First, one can benefit from high volatility and risk aversion.          investment strategies that largely avoid volatility as they are not
     For example, a long volatility investment can be tactically             “marked to market” each day. Private market funds, for example,
     attractive. The mean-reversion nature of implied volatility offers      regroup investments in non-public assets such as non-listed
     opportunities to buy hedges once volatility retreats from a high        companies, infrastructure and other real assets. They are long-
     level. In terms of asset allocation and due to the potentially large    term strategies with an average investment horizon of eight to
     price moves of underlying assets, it is important to frequently         ten years. Their profitability is based on strict selection criteria:
     reassess both the volatility exposure and level in a portfolio.         their operational success over full economic cycles and the
     Another way to try to benefit from market volatility could be to        investment teams’ ability to follow companies as they develop.
     apply covered call strategies. These involve selling short-term         Private markets’ underlying investments are held for many years,
     call options on securities in the portfolio, leading to a defensive     with their valuations driven by company financials, overall private
     equity investment approach, the benefit of which is also linked to      market flows, returns, cost of debt, market sentiment and stock
     the volatility level. As equity markets decline, the premiums from      market behaviour. Investing in these products enables investors
     option sales provide a cushion and bring in additional revenues.        to diversify away from the short-term volatility of listed financial
     In our view, when pursuing a covered call strategy, one has to          markets.
     pay attention to maturities of the call options that are sold. The
     shorter term options are to be preferred because they capture a         The current markets, via the changes of volatility regimes, offer
     high level of implied volatility with a low risk of adverse valuation   a panel of opportunities. These can be assessed as a source of
     should volatility rise.                                                 alpha, such as in some specific absolute return strategies, or to
                                                                             temper risk exposure. In any case, experience and know-how are
     Weathering the risk                                                     key elements to manage these high risk periods.
     Second, investors can try to weather volatility by adopting Low-
     volatility Equity strategies – so called ‘minimum variance’ or
     using Risk Management Overlays. Low-volatility equity strategies
     can optimise the risk/return characteristics of an equity portfolio.
     The objective is to build a portfolio that optimises the return         1 Source: BNP Paribas Investment Partners

                                                                                                                           For professional investors
8 - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - PERsPECTIVEs - October 2011

                                                                                                                                                                                               EMERGING MARkETs
                                                                                                                   Martial Godet
                                                                                                 Head of Emerging Markets Equities

     EM stocks are vulnerable
     but investors shouldn’t give up hope
     The steep fall in emerging markets this year has proved that, whether we like it or not, they will
     not trade at a premium to developed markets and will remain vulnerable to global cues. However,
     we still believe these markets still offer superior returns versus the risk and good diversification,
     particularly if investors include some smaller EM countries that have so far been neglected.

     The collapse of EM markets                                           in supporting local equity markets. This may be about to change
     The eurozone debt crisis, weaker growth in the US and the            as most countries have been able to cover external debt with
     risk of outright recession in Europe have hit markets hard, yet      Fx reserves. So we should expect a much broader diversification
     emerging markets have turned out to be the main victims (along       into EM assets (at least local bonds), providing more support
     with Western banks). The crisis, which started in August with        for currencies in the future. Similarly, the decline of local rates
     the decline of emerging stocks and unfolded more broadly in          over the past few years should eventually fuel diversification into
     September with the collapse of EM currencies, has sent us back       equities in countries like Brazil or Turkey.
     three years, when emerging markets lost 60% between June and
     October 2008. That crisis, too, was triggered by debt problems in    Dedicated EM Equity Flows (USD billions)
     developed markets.                                                                                                                                                        95.8
     Emerging markets remain largely correlated to basic indicators
     such as:                                                                                                                                           54.2

                                                                                                                                            32.5 34.0
     . the New Orders component of the ISM index, a leading indicator
       of EM economic activity (showing that the export model is still           6.9   5.5           6.1                              8.0
                                                                           0.5                                           0.0
       dominant throughout EM),
                                                                                             (2.9)         (3.7) (3.6)
     . the global volatility level (vIx) as a measure of risk appetite/
       aversion, showing the high correlation of EM equities to other
       risky asset classes.                                                                                                                                    (49.3)
                                                                          1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
     The ISM index fell below 50 in August - within a downward
     trend. This was followed by readings still signaling a contraction   Source: EPFR Global
     of orders. Almost simultaneously there was a rise in volatility
     (fuelled by the eurozone crisis). These two factors signaled the
     decline in emerging equities. This tells us that EM economic and     Don’t expect emerging markets to trade at a premium
     financial models are still imperfect. Also, that they need almost    Based on P/E ratios, emerging markets trade at a 15% to 20%
     ideal economic conditions, or very specific market conditions, to    discount on average to developed markets. This discount has
     outperform developed markets and/or achieve positive returns:        widened recently, but is still narrow compared to levels during
     moderate global growth and low inflation, or a large valuation       periods of EM outperformance (beginning in 2002 and 2009).
     gap.                                                                 On Price-to-Book ratios, emerging markets have now become
                                                                          cheaper than developed markets. However, we could expect
     Any other scenario is likely to worsen imbalances that, without      further relative de-rating of emerging markets (another 10% to
     a strong domestic investor base, weigh on stock markets. This        20%) before the capacity to outperform appears.
     explains why we so brutally shifted from fears of inflationary
     pressures to concerns of collapsing demand from Western              It is noteworthy that, despite the much higher GDP growth
     countries, with limited undervaluation to cushion these shocks.      potential, strong earnings growth and returns on equity in both
                                                                          absolute and relative terms, valuations of developed markets have
     Fund flows still play a major role in setting market trends. Their   acted as a cap for emerging markets. This is because EM stocks
     impact is quite obvious, highlighting the still dominant role of     and economies have higher volatility, their corporate governance is
     developed country savings in global, including EM, asset classes.    still questionable and investors still don’t adequately understand
     Despite high saving rates and massive Fx reserves in most            market drivers, resulting in a higher risk premium.
     emerging countries, these pools of money have had little effect

                                                                                                                                                For professional investors
9 - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - PERsPECTIVEs - October 2011

     Why invest in EM equities?                                              universe. But the most ‘exciting’ part of emerging markets may
     In our opinion, there are still good reasons for investing in           lie between these larger countries and the much smaller and
     emerging market equities: the risk is rewarded; GDP growth              less liquid Frontier Markets. Yet many investors do not have a
     matters and can be captured in returns and country diversification      strategic allocation to these intermediate markets (unless part
     creates investment opportunities. Although the performance              of a BRIC or commodities fund) and may not realise that they are
     of emerging markets can sometimes be frustrating, they still            underexposed to markets with potentially strong returns.
     consistently outperform developed markets over the medium to
     long term and we don’t see this situation changing. The impact          The cases for some intermediate markets like India, Russia, South
     of local GDP growth on EM companies is still huge. Though we            Africa or Mexico, which weigh between 4% to 8% of a GEM fund,
     acknowledge that a large part of their economic growth is based         are quite well known. But take Turkey, with 1.5%, Indonesia with
     on demand originating from developed countries, local capital           30%, the Philippines at 0.7%, Poland at 1.5% or Colombia at 0.9%
     formation and structural changes (e.g., urbanisation, rising            of the MSCI GEM index. Unless invested amounts globally exceed
     purchasing power, etc.) are also powerful drivers as long as            USD 500 mn, the liquidity level of these countries is reasonably
     profitability is not hurt by excessive inflation or a credit squeeze.   good and would be appropriate for a much more equally-weighted
     Looking at three to five-year average prices for equities, we find
     that the performance of a ‘smoothed’ index is very close to the         With the exception of Central European countries, which collapsed
     performance of EM GDP in USD. The main periods when figures             in September, most other small markets displayed remarkable
     diverged were: at the end of the 1990s, when emerging equity            resilience and should continue to do so as long as the global
     valuations dropped; in 2007, when valuations became excessive;          economy doesn’t plunge into recession. The GDP growth prospects
     and recently when they fell abnormally low. However, the                and public finances of these countries are reasonably good
     recent pull-back of EM currencies will also lower the EM GDP            and in several cases, these economies are geared to domestic
     in USD significantly. We think it will be some years before this        consumption and supported by dynamic demographic trends.
     relationship between stock markets and GDP fades.                       You also tend to find a large proportion of conglomerates, which
                                                                             guarantees reasonable valuations. These markets remain highly
     Similarly, we found that, looking at a three year investment,           volatile, but you can expect somewhat less correlated returns to
     valuations at the time of investment are enormously important.          global markets than with the largest emerging markets.
     Currently we stand at 1-1.2 standard deviation below the average
     valuation level over the past 15 years (including the Asian, Russian    Investors are still massively geared towards the largest countries,
     and Argentinean and 2008-2009 crises), which has consistently           at the expense of investment opportunities and risk diversification.
     proved a rewarding time to invest. Historically, this situation has     We are convinced there is room for improved investment solutions
     led to positive returns 95% of the time. Interestingly, investments     through wider diversification and a larger share of investment in
     bought when markets are priced above long-term averages                 second (India, Russia, Mexico, South Africa) and third tier countries
     generate most of the times negative returns after three years.          (ASEAN, small Latin American and Emerging European countries),
                                                                             finally making the most of this EM investment universe.
     The compelling case for smaller EM countries
     Emerging market investors may not always realise that they
     invest in portfolios that are dominated by just a few countries:
     China, Brazil, South korea and Taiwan represent 60% of the

                                                                                                                          For professional investors
10 - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - PERsPECTIVEs - October 2011


                                                                              Erik Orsenna                Helena Viñes Fiestas
                                                   Author, Member of the Académie Française            Co-Head of SRI Research
                                                                                                                       BNPP IP

     How can 9 bn people be fed?
     At a time when the planet is set to receive its seven billionth inhabitant on 31 October (UN estimates),
     and the global population could reach 9 bn by around 2030, agriculture is a more topical issue
     than ever. We have therefore chosen it as our subject of discussion on 8 November during our fifth
     Sustainable Development Circle conference with specialists such as Pierre Jacquet, Chief Economist
     of Agence Française de Développement, Didier Nedelec, Market Director of Invivo, and Jean-Pascal
     Tragnie, co-founder of the Euro-Asian group, Aloe Private Equity. In a preview of these discussions,
     Perspectives talks with Erik Orsenna, moderator of the Circle, and Helena viñes Fiestas, co-manager
     of SRI research at BNPP IP.

     Perspectives (P): In the coming years, there will be 9 bn humans       P: You mention inadequate investment as one of the historical
     on the planet, how can the earth feed so many mouths?                  causes of the problem. Could you elaborate on that?

     Erik Orsenna (EO): Indeed, the issue of agriculture is far from        EO: This subject is of fundamental importance in my opinion,
     being settled, because it is estimated that nearly one billion         and deserves more attention. This phenomenon, due to a sort
     people, or 15% of the world’s population, do not have enough to        of contempt for agriculture, is not new: as shown by World Bank
     eat. Note that among the most undernourished are farmers. This         reports, financing for this key sector has never been sufficient to
     paradox can be explained by the fact that agriculture has suffered     its needs. It is striking to note that budgets to support agriculture
     from inadequate investment, and this has led to a vicious cycle:       are given no priority. Yet any decline in financing could have
     farmers were not earning a living from the land, so they left to       dramatic consequences: food crises, or even famines leading to
     join workers in the cities, thereby causing a fall in production. To   violence and popular uprisings. That said, more generally there
     avoid riots, governments had two solutions – to import foodstuffs      are grounds for hope because in the past five years there has
     and lower prices – both of which exacerbated the rural exodus. At      been a growing awareness of the inadequacy of the resources
     present, demand is growing even more strongly because, on top          employed relative to the needs.
     of pressure from population growth, there are changes in eating
     habits related to rising living standards. Meanwhile, supply           Helena Viñes Fiestas (HVF): I would also like to emphasise the
     is still restricted by the increasing scarcity of arable land, the     need to invest in infrastructure, and for awareness raising among
     water crisis and climate change, all factors that greatly increase     farmers. This includes training in practices that are less harmful
     the likelihood of droughts and floods.                                 to soils and water and raising awareness of the damage their
                                                                            actions do to the environment, but also technology transfer. One
     These major tensions between supply and demand explain                 of the aims is also to address the problem of waste: at present,
     agricultural price volatility: clearly, the slightest political or     between 30% and 50% of food production is wasted, especially
     climate problem leads to huge price fluctuations. The significant      due to storage and transport inefficiencies. Investment in
     impact of the fires in Russia on wheat prices during the summer        infrastructure is therefore of fundamental importance whether
     of 2010 is a perfect example of this. The problem is that this         for irrigation (over 60% of the water used on earth is for
     volatility of agricultural commodity prices is as powerful as it       agricultural purposes), storage of foodstuffs, roads or means of
     is unpredictable, making the farmer’s job increasingly difficult.      transport.
     He needs to have hedging against prices over three, six or even
     nine months, depending on the period. So, to sum up, agriculture       In addition to support from the public sector, private investors
     is currently faced with global tensions of both a structural and       play an extremely important role in financing agriculture. Above
     cyclical nature, and it is the duty of all of us to solve them.        all, this involves investment in ‘physical’ activities, as opposed
                                                                            to speculative operations. We believe efficient investment can
                                                                            contribute by financing producers and all productive activities so
                                                                            as to ensure a supply of sustainable agricultural products.

                                                                                                                         For professional investors
11 - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - PERsPECTIVEs - October 2011

     P: Can ‘socially responsible’ investment have a significant impact     ESG (Environment, Social, Governance) criteria are central to our
     on the development of sustainable agriculture? Do you think            strategy; they help us to distinguish between good and less good
     that this could really change things in the long term?                 practices and to pre-empt social tensions, especially those that
                                                                            may exist between small and large agricultural firms.
     EO: As much as I believe that investment has a strong influence
     on agriculture, I am equally convinced that socially responsible       P: And if we look to the future, around 2030 or 2050, what are the
     financing will make it possible to transform the vicious cycle         solutions that will make it possible to feed the planet?
     described above into a virtuous one. If being ‘fashionable’ can help
     develop SRI, so much the better, every possible means should be        EO: At a time of global climate warming, when nature cannot
     used to increase world production by 50% by 2030. Given the            keep up with booming population growth after being disdained,
     huge difference between forecast investment and the sums we            polluted and depleted for too long, I believe we will have to turn to
     believe will be needed, and also due to budget pressures, it is        research, and genetic research in particular, to find alternatives.
     clear that public finances will not be able to make up the deficit.    At present, GMOs (genetically modified organisms) get a bad
     The baton must be picked up by the private sector.                     press, they are demonised, and although some of the reasons
                                                                            put forward are plausible, others are unacceptable. However, this
     HVF: It is clear that socially responsible investors can make a very   research work, if well managed and performed from a long-term
     positive contribution to agriculture if a determined, intelligent      perspective, should provide sustainable solutions.
     policy is applied. That is why our SRI analysts look very closely
     at how these investments are made. They have defined a three-          HVF: The problems are far from being solved, but we believe that
     point strategy:                                                        the current growing awareness will bear fruit, and that financing
                                                                            by numerous private stakeholders, backed up by the public sector,
     1. Select the best companies in terms of their social and              will make it possible to initiate the virtuous cycle mentioned by
        environmental impact at each stage of the value chain               Erik. Our aim is to contribute to the goal of a 50% increase in
     2. Through our thematic funds, invest in technologies and              global production through intelligent, discerning investment. It
        businesses that will not only be able to increase productivity,     is the quality of such investment that will determine the level of
        but do so in ways that are best aligned with sustainable            our contribution to the creation of sustainable global agriculture.
        development, such as new irrigation systems                         That is why we have chosen to make in-depth research and
     3. Establish a dialogue with the companies to ensure that their        analysis central to our investment decisions.
        investments go to technologies of the future and that they
        support research programmes for less harmful products – for
        example, by replacing noxious fertilisers with nutrients that
        are less harmful to the soil in the long term

                                                                                                                         For professional investors
12 - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - PERsPECTIVEs - October 2011

                                                      ExPERT’s VIEW

                                                                                                                                          Michael Gordon
                                                                                                                                    CIO of Equities, BNPP AM

     Challenging received wisdom
     Just as we chose to structure BNP Paribas Investment Partners as a group of independent asset
     managers, we have organised the equities division around small, independently focused teams.
     We have identified four main elements which we beleive ensure teams perform to their maximum:
     smaller team sizes, existing in a single location, emphasising regular face-to-face communication
     and working autonomously: even though these factors seem to go against the received wisdom.

     Bigger is not better                                                                               The information trap
     For example, a commonly held belief is that you need more                                          As information technology progresses, the mass of data available
     people to manage equities and that the more analysts you have                                      to fund managers grows. The belief that we would challenge
     on your team the more thorough and in-depth your research                                          is that processing more data leads to taking better decisions.
     – and therefore your stockpicking will be better. We disagree                                      In fact, we would argue it is the opposite, as illustrated by the
     with this concept. On the contrary, we believe that having too                                     diagram, in which the mass of data available on stocks makes
     many people within one team reduces the chance of providing a                                      up the pyramid’s base. This data, too overwhelming to be used
     focused, top-performing product. A study by Russell Investments                                    as such, is sifted, an activity that demands huge resources, to
     in September 2010 backs this up. It found that teams with five                                     identify the most important information relevant to the fund.
     people or less outperformed those with five to 10 members. In                                      That information is again sifted - again implying important
     fact, performance was reduced the larger teams became - with                                       resources - until eventually the fund manager can take his
     those having more than 20 members being the worst performers.                                      investment decisions. Too many staff in one team leads to too
     Within BNPP AM’s equity management teams, we find this to                                          much data to analyse and there, we think, the focus gets diluted.
     be verified as well: As an example, Hubert Goyé’s US equity                                        An example of an equity management team avoiding this trap is
     team, with only five fund managers/analysts, has been regularly                                    Andrew king’s team, which uses a unique system based on the
     outperforming his benchmark on an annual basis* for more than                                      Heindrich Hirschman Index, to analyse stocks and does not let
     15 years1.                                                                                         their focus waver from the short-list of companies that fit their
     1 Source: BNPP IP, as at 5 October, 2011. Outperformance in 11 out of 15 years (annualised).

     Excess returns to Russell Global Large Cap Developed universe
     by size of team (2006 - 2010)*
                    2.58                                                                                                               WISDOM
     2.00                                  1.77


                 5 or less                5 to 10               10 to 20             more than 20
                                          Number of team members

      Source: Russell Investments, September 30, 2010. Universe is Russell Global Equity Universe
      (INTWORLD) with current membership of 233.
      The Russell Universe is a group of managed portfolios that fulfill certain geographical and/or
      criteria. Russell Investment Group performs extensive research and monitoring on investment
      managers across all asset classes worldwide. Universe participants are selected by our research
      division based on portfolio fundamentals and specific universe.
      *Past performance or achievement is not indicative of current or future performance.

                                                                                                                                                   For professional investors
13 - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - PERsPECTIVEs - October 2011

     Location, location, location
     Another commonly held belief we wish to challenge is the idea
     that geographical spread helps achieve better performance.
     When teams are spread across the globe, too much reliance on
     technology can occur, creating problems as people assume that
     cyber contact is as efficient as communication in person. In our
     view, 15 people around the world joining in a conference call
     from different time zones, with less than perfect connections will
     always be less conducive to optimal decision making than when
     you have one small team in a single location sitting together
     around a meeting table. We believe that having huge teams
     spread across multiple locations leads to multiple agendas and
     a lack of focus. We have put this in practice by recently relocating
     our listed real estate team. Previously spread across three
     countries, the entire team is now located in Amsterdam. The
     benefits of this reorganisation are already showing with good
     performance and new clients coming on board again.

     Such a view coming from BNPP IP which is known for its size and
     global coverage might be surprising, as our asset management
     centres are spread across many countries. However, the teams
     within those countries work autonomously to provide funds
     focused on their speciality.

     The BNPP IP philosophy of using a number of independent
     business partners has long supported the idea of independent,
     autonomous asset managers which focus on their core expertise.
     This approach is working just as well within equities where
     different teams are not interdependent, but rather left to
     focus on their speciality. It may seem counter-intuitive as the
     commonly held belief is that teams talking to each other and
     sharing research adds value, but we have found that, for equities,
     autonomy works better.

     So despite the received wisdom that encourages ever larger teams
     spread across the global relying on technology to communicate,
     we believe that our four main elements ensure our equity teams
     perform to the maximum: smaller teams, located in one place,
     using face-to-face communication and working autonomously.
14 - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - PERsPECTIVEs - October 2011


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15 - BNP Paribas Investment Partners - PERsPECTIVEs - October 2011

                This material is issued and has been prepared by BNP Paribas Asset Management S.A.S. (“BNPP AM”)* a member of BNP Paribas Investment
                Partners (BNPP IP)**.
                This material is produced for information purposes only and does not constitute:
                1 an offer to buy nor a solicitation to sell, nor shall it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment
                whatsoever or
                2 any investment advice.
                Opinions included in this material constitute the judgment of BNPP AM at the time specified and may be subject to change without notice.
                BNPP AM is not obliged to update or alter the information or opinions contained within this material. Investors should consult their own legal
                and tax advisors in respect of legal, accounting, domicile and tax advice prior to investing in the Financial Instrument(s) in order to make
                an independent determination of the suitability and consequences of an investment therein, if permitted. Please note that different types of
                investments, if contained within this material, involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that any specific investment
                may either be suitable, appropriate or profitable for a client or prospective client’s investment portfolio.
                Given the economic and market risks, there can be no assurance that any investment strategy or strategies mentioned herein will achieve
                its/their investment objectives. Returns may be affected by, amongst other things, investment strategies or objectives of the Financial
                Instrument(s) and material market and economic conditions, including interest rates, market terms and general market conditions. The
                different strategies applied to the Financial Instruments may have a significant effect on the results portrayed in this material. The value of
                an investment account may decline as well as rise. Investors may not get back the amount they originally invested.
                The performance data, as applicable, reflected in this material, do not take into account the commissions, costs incurred on the issue and
                redemption and taxes.
                *BNPP AM is an investment manager registered with the “Autorité des marchés financiers” in France under number 96-02, a simplified
                joint stock company with a capital of 64,931,168 euros with its registered office at 1, boulevard Haussmann 75009 Paris, France, RCS Paris
                319 378 832. www.bnpparibas-am.com.
                ** “BNP Paribas Investment Partners” is the global brand name of the BNP Paribas group’s asset management services. The individual asset
                management entities within BNP Paribas Investment Partners if specified herein, are specified for information only and do not necessarily
                carry on business in your jurisdiction. For further information, please contact your locally licensed Investment Partner.

                 Publisher: Philippe Marchessaux
                 Editor in Chief: Anthony Finan
                 Deputy Editor: Maryelle Ouvrard
                 Publication coordinator: Sandrine Bensussen
                 Graphic design: Studio Graphique BNPP IP
                 Translations: Tectrad, CPW Group

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